Lessons learned from 2013 - What are yours? (1 Viewer)

FF Ninja · Jan 7, 2014

Joe's note: Hey Guys - Looking back is always a great way to learn and look forward. Thank you to FFNinja for starting this thread. Let's make it our master thread for looking back at the year with the idea of how we can best look forward. List your specific and also your general things you learned from this past season. And please keep the idea not so much on debating the past, but you feel that you learned (or confirmed) from this past year and how it might help you going forward.

Thanks FF Ninja for starting this.

J

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From FF Ninja:

Here are a few surprising finishes:

QB1 Peyton - goes from QB6 to QB1. I know everyone will claim to have seen this coming, but I honestly didn't. It was just the second time in his career to finish QB1, and he did it by a HUGE margin despite Brees improving upon his totals that landed him QB1 last year. Remember when Favre finished QB6 for the Viking in 2009 and then broke down the next year? Well, that was enough to scare me off of Peyton at an ADP of QB3 for an old guy that finished QB6 the year before. Obviously a mistake in hindsight, but how could this have been predicted?

QB4 Luck - loses Arians and his deep game while acquiring Pep Hamilton and his short game. I like Luck but didn't expect big things from this offense. Like last year, he put up a lot of stats while trailing. Still not lighting the world on fire passing (6.7 ypa down from a meager 7.0 last year despite an increase from 54% to 60% in completion %) but his legs (377/4) made the difference between him (3822/23/9) and QB10 Romo (3828/31/10).

QB5 Dalton - wtf?

QB6 Rivers - seemed like an obvious bounceback candidate to me, but the lack of offensive line improvement in the offseason still made it tough to draft with confidence.

QB11 Foles - in just 10.5 games. Did anyone predict this? Will this continue or will Philly and/or Foles get figured out?

QB14 Brady - QB4 by ADP. This one seems easy and a lot of people predicted it - a lack of weapons -> lack of production. Also, he's getting older and hasn't thrown the deep ball well for several years.

QB15 Ryan - I always thought this guy was meh. Without elite surrounding talent everyone else got to see it, too.

RB5 Moreno - I'm sure this was shocking to some. John Fox pointlessly playing depth chart games before week 1 really made this trickier than it had to be. Everyone knew there were points to be had in this running game, but nobody could know for certain how it would pan out. I was a big Moreno proponent but the depth chart douchebaggery of Fox made me question my gut. Should we have all seen through this? I still drafted Moreno this year, but without confidence.

RB6 Lacy - after slipping in the draft, receives work horse touches and plenty of goal line work. GB obviously had to lean on him with Rodgers out (6 TDs in the 7 games Rodgers missed) which may have helped, but he was still a great play beforehand. The Packers traded back instead of drafting him and then took another RB two rounds later, so it was hard to be confident in their confidence in him. Then he looked pudgy in training camp. Hard to feel like we could've seen this coming based on anything logical, although I'm sure plenty of people had gut feelings due to liking his college tape.

RB10 F.Jackson - nope. Nobody can claim they saw this coming. Coach claimed they were going to run Spiller until he puked, they lost a pro bowl lineman, and Freddy just turned 32 coming off two leg injuries. Had Spiller not sustained the high ankle sprain, I don't think this season happens nearly to the same extent. And no, I didn't draft Spiller in any leagues.

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

RB17 J.Bell - I knew he'd have an expanded role, but RB17 for a backup is huge. Obviously padded by 2 nice games while Bush was out, but still an impressive season for a backup. Did anyone know he'd have this big of a role?

L.Bell/Stacy - workload workload workload. Both flashed some talent, but really made their living off of high workloads. With the scarcity of talent in Pit, I guess Bell wasn't too surprising, but Stacy did have a lot of guys to compete with. Did anyone honestly draft Stacy with confidence or was he just a flyer?

RB28 Rice - I thought he'd lose touches to Pierce but didn't predict this kind of downfall. Did anyone see this coming and how?

RB30 Ridley - I like Blount so I had my concerns about Ridley but I didn't think he'd end up this badly. Was this foreseeable?

RB34 Trent - some will claim they saw it coming, and I'll admit I mostly avoided him, but I'm still shocked at this. I didn't think he'd be this bad, but should I have?

RB38 Miller - extremely hyped. I think it was somewhat foreseeable as the offensive line was never going to be good.

David Wilson - I avoided him, but didn't predict how poorly he and the Giants would look even when healthy. Did anyone predict this fall from uber-hyped grace?

WR1 Gordon - caught a lot of long TDs early in rookie year and then fizzled. Was highly targeted by bad QBs this year yet scored and posted big YPR. Was this legitimately predictable or only "seen" by optimistic dynasty owners?

WR7 Brown - I liked him as a value play but didn't expect this big of a year. Should this progression have been predicted? It was his second year in this offense and his first year as WR1. I feel like I should've targeted him more aggressively in hindsight.

WR8 Jeffery - I was kind of excited about Cutler having a good WR2, but I didn't think he'd be this good. Did anyone have enough faith in both Cutler and Jeffery to see this coming?

WR10 DeSean - he slipped from his early numbers, but still an impressive year from a little WR on a team that loves to run. Should this have been obvious to us?

WR29 Cruz - never drafted him, but didn't expect to see this kind of slip. What happened and how to predict this in the future?

WR44 Bowe - another guy I didn't draft, but didn't actually expect to be as bad as he was. Why so bad?

TE3 Thomas - I don't think this TD blip could've been predicted. Otherwise, a middle of the road TE1.

TE7 Clay - about the only other surprise worth mentioning. I was interested in Keller here before injury, so I guess I should've been interested in Clay to some extent. If Miami hadn't fired the OC, then this might've been a position to watch next year.

Any other shocking end of the year finishes I missed? Everyone always gets excited about looking forward to next year, but looking backwards is more important. We all missed the boat on multipe players - be it guys we overdrafted or guys we overlooked. I didn't bother with injuries as I don't think anyone could've predicted Julio's injury or the like. Although Doug Martin was having a pretty meh season before he got injured, so that might've been worth mentioning. I think that one should've been seen coming.

Warrior · Jan 7, 2014

FF Ninja said:
RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious" :rolleyes:

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Statorama · Jan 7, 2014

The Giants being a fantasy black hole was the surprise for me. Usually SOMEONE pops out as fantasy relevant on bad teams, but not in this case.

JuniorNB · Jan 7, 2014

Nice write-up, Guru. That took some time. Don't worry about idiots like Warrior who just find one thing he doesn't like and then needs to be a Richard about it. Any thread where someone makes a well thought out attempt at discussion is welcomed.

I think Moreno has to be the biggest shocker on the list. The fantasy discussion was all about the battle between Ball and Hillman. Moreno was an afterthought.

Foles is another one (although he was second string when the season start, so it makes sense). If his numbers were prorated to a full 16 games, they were better than Brees'.

False Start · Jan 7, 2014

Peyton Manning is God in pads. Thats what I learned.

BigSteelThrill · Jan 7, 2014

FF Ninja said:
WR44 Bowe - another guy I didn't draft, but didn't actually expect to be as bad as he was. Why so bad?

This one is simple. Alex Smith and the KC gameplan.

Smith takes almost no risks (and dismisses Bowes routes) if KC ever has a lead.

Avery, McCluster and Charles get all the safe underneath stuff. Bowe then is a blocker and decoy.

zamboni · Jan 7, 2014

Edelman at WR18 with 105 receptions was a big surprise. He did a good part of his damage without Gronkowski, but he significantly outplayed the much-heralded free agent Amendola - who was actually healthy most of the year.

As with the running game in NE, there are stats to be had at the WR position although it remains an enigma as to where those stats will go.

zftcg · Jan 7, 2014

FF Ninja said:
RB17 J.Bell - I knew he'd have an expanded role, but RB17 for a backup is huge. Obviously padded by 2 nice games while Bush was out, but still an impressive season for a backup. Did anyone know he'd have this big of a role?

Nit picking just a bit, but Bell also had two other games where Bush fumbled early and was effectively benched, meaning JB essentially "started" four games. Outside of those, he had three other games with double-digit fantasy points (two because he got the short-yardage TDs and one because it was a blowout where both backs got a ton of carries). Still, I hadn't realized he finished that high in the rankings. Drafted him less as a handcuff to Bush and more as, "This guy was sneaky good last year, so I'll take a late-round flier on his talent." But no way I expected him to emerge as a RB1a.

MattFancy · Jan 7, 2014

What I learned:

Could have been fine at RB with Lacy, Mathews, JBell, Moreno, LBell, Woodhead, FJax, or Stacy in most leagues. Most of those guys were going in the mid to late rounds except for Lacy and Mathews who started creeping up towards the end of the preseason.

WRs have the best chance of living up to their ADP. Calvin, Marshall, Dez, Demaryius were 4 of the top 5 WRs taken in most drafts.

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

QB is going to be really deep next year. Easily 15 or so QBs with QB1 potential.

Spike · Jan 7, 2014

zamboni said:
Edelman at WR18 with 105 receptions was a big surprise. He did a good part of his damage without Gronkowski, but he significantly outplayed the much-heralded free agent Amendola - who was actually healthy most of the year.

As with the running game in NE, there are stats to be had at the WR position although it remains an enigma as to where those stats will go.

Nope. He might have been on the field a decent amount but never close to healthy. It's due to that point that Edelman got (and ran with) his chance; especially early when Amendola was not even on the field. By the time Amendola was on the field with any regularity, Edelman had won (and earned) Brady's trust.

Dr. Octopus · Jan 7, 2014

FF Ninja said:
QB11 Foles - in just 10.5 games. Did anyone predict this? Will this continue or will Philly and/or Foles get figured out?

I've seen this said before but I'm not sure what there is to figure out?

The "option" type running game is about as simple as could be and has been around forever. The passing game has a lot of moving pieces, but isn't really gimmicky.

One of the reasons that the stats get inflated is the up tempo nature of the offense and there isn't much that the oppositon can do to slow it down, outside of faking injuries, which will eventually lead to being penalized.

FF Ninja · Jan 7, 2014

Warrior said:
FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Spike said:
zamboni said:

Edelman at WR18 with 105 receptions was a big surprise. He did a good part of his damage without Gronkowski, but he significantly outplayed the much-heralded free agent Amendola - who was actually healthy most of the year.

As with the running game in NE, there are stats to be had at the WR position although it remains an enigma as to where those stats will go.

Click to expand...

Nope. He might have been on the field a decent amount but never close to healthy. It's due to that point that Edelman got (and ran with) his chance; especially early when Amendola was not even on the field. By the time Amendola was on the field with any regularity, Edelman had won (and earned) Brady's trust.

Exactly. I thought about including Edelman but considered him an injury play due to Gronk missing so much time and Amendola being nicked up almost the entire year.

Dr. Octopus said:
FF Ninja said:

QB11 Foles - in just 10.5 games. Did anyone predict this? Will this continue or will Philly and/or Foles get figured out?

Click to expand...

I've seen this said before but I'm not sure what there is to figure out?

The "option" type running game is about as simple as could be and has been around forever. The passing game has a lot of moving pieces, but isn't really gimmicky.

One of the reasons that the stats get inflated is the up tempo nature of the offense and there isn't much that the oppositon can do to slow it down, outside of faking injuries, which will eventually lead to being penalized.

Yeah, that was kind of lazily worded of me, but what I was getting at is that it isn't uncommon for a guy to come on strong for half a season and then flounder a bit afterwards. A good example would be Kaepernick this year. I don't know if he got figured out or just wasn't as good as he looked down the stretch last year. So with Foles I'm trying to figure out if I should've anticipated him being so good if forced into action and if he'll be anywhere near as valuable next year.

17seconds · Jan 7, 2014

I'd say Cameron had a breakout year. At draft time he was mostly a TE2, with some saying TE1. He fizzled out in the 2nd half but the Browns also lost their last 7 games. If you waited on TE and grabbed him in the 10th you were pretty damned happy. He's a top 5 TE now.

FF Ninja · Jan 7, 2014

17seconds said:
I'd say Cameron had a breakout year. At draft time he was mostly a TE2, with some saying TE1. He fizzled out in the 2nd half but the Browns also lost their last 7 games. If you waited on TE and grabbed him in the 10th you were pretty damned happy. He's a top 5 TE now.

I thought about including him, but his ADP was TE12 and he finished right there in the middle of TE1s. There was quite a bit of talk about him before the season. He finished TE5 and outscored Witten by 0.6 pts and had Gronk and Finley not gotten hurt he'd probably be a couple more spots down. Combine that with his second half fizzle and he didn't seem like a worthy addition to a list that had already gotten long, but I agree, he was a bit of a breakout guy and should generate some interest next year if they get a QB.

Chaka · Jan 7, 2014

MattFancy said:
What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Steed · Jan 7, 2014

FF Ninja said:
Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

Wise Old Owl · Jan 7, 2014

Steed said:
FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

2010 900 yds 7 tds 4.3 ypc

2011 1500 yds 6 tds 4.9 ypc

2012 750 yds 1 td 3.8 ypc

2013 1450 yds 7 tds 4.4 ypc

where are his two bust years? All i see is a year where he broke his collarbone in the 1st preason game and then the whole offense around him regressed. Seeing Mathews as the value he was this year is what wins leagues.

And Mathews didn't even stay healthy, he had hamstring issues, he left a game with 3 carries with a concusion. Telling someone who took Mathews or Murray this year that they got lucky that they didn't get hurt is ridiculous. Everyone who has a player than doesn't get hurt is lucky. I aggressively targeted Mathews in many leagues this year because people overreacted to his down year and he had great value.

FUBAR · Jan 7, 2014

The frustrating one to me was Foles. I actually did have high expectations for him before the season, then lost faith after a few weeks. Lesson learned here - keep the faith with players you expect to do well.

Unless that person is Richardson, then your faith won't pay off.

:unsure:

zftcg · Jan 7, 2014

FUBAR said:
The frustrating one to me was Foles. I actually did have high expectations for him before the season, then lost faith after a few weeks. Lesson learned here - keep the faith with players you expect to do well.

Unless that person is Richardson, then your faith won't pay off.

Or Rice, or Spiller, or MJD ...

Steed · Jan 7, 2014

Wise Old Owl said:
Steed said:

FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

Click to expand...

2010 900 yds 7 tds 4.3 ypc2011 1500 yds 6 tds 4.9 ypc

2012 750 yds 1 td 3.8 ypc

2013 1450 yds 7 tds 4.4 ypc

where are his two bust years? All i see is a year where he broke his collarbone in the 1st preason game and then the whole offense around him regressed. Seeing Mathews as the value he was this year is what wins leagues.

And Mathews didn't even stay healthy, he had hamstring issues, he left a game with 3 carries with a concusion. Telling someone who took Mathews or Murray this year that they got lucky that they didn't get hurt is ridiculous. Everyone who has a player than doesn't get hurt is lucky. I aggressively targeted Mathews in many leagues this year because people overreacted to his down year and he had great value.

You think 900 total yards, not rushing, is a good year? And he was handed the job too. If that's the case Andre Ellington is on his way to the HOF!

Wise Old Owl · Jan 7, 2014

Steed said:
Wise Old Owl said:

Steed said:

FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

Click to expand...

2010 900 yds 7 tds 4.3 ypc2011 1500 yds 6 tds 4.9 ypc

2012 750 yds 1 td 3.8 ypc

2013 1450 yds 7 tds 4.4 ypc

where are his two bust years? All i see is a year where he broke his collarbone in the 1st preason game and then the whole offense around him regressed. Seeing Mathews as the value he was this year is what wins leagues.

And Mathews didn't even stay healthy, he had hamstring issues, he left a game with 3 carries with a concusion. Telling someone who took Mathews or Murray this year that they got lucky that they didn't get hurt is ridiculous. Everyone who has a player than doesn't get hurt is lucky. I aggressively targeted Mathews in many leagues this year because people overreacted to his down year and he had great value.

Click to expand...

You think 900 total yards, not rushing, is a good year? And he was handed the job too. If that's the case Andre Ellington is on his way to the HOF!

I don't get it. Some people are determined to hate Mathews. I'm not arguing that he had a phenomenal rookie year, but he was good in his limited role. Even if he was "handed" the job, he was splitting carries in an offense that threw the ball at least 60%. He also didn't get goal line carries(Tolbert) or play in the hurry up (Sproles). It's not like he was Martin or Trent or Lacy that came in and had 260+ carries his rookie year.

The point is this isn't even relevant right now. He's running hard and when he's healthy he has a coach that trusts and uses him. Mathew's probably won some people some championships this year with his ADP. You're more than welcome to dismiss it as luck to make yourself feel better about yourself.

menobrown · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

It not only was NOT obvious to start the season it was not obvious until the last few weeks of the season. Around mid-season people who owned Mathews were scrambling to find someone else to put in their lineup.

I drafted him in the 5th round of my two biggest money leagues, both high stakes leagues with short 11 week seasons. Reality of it is I'd have been better of passing on the pick because he killed my lineup so often to start the year before I wised up an started leaving him on my bench.

Things did not turn around for him until the coaching staff stopped using him in such a predictable fashion-running almost every snap he was in the game and starting involving him more in the passing game and giving him goal line carries.

So his early season poor and general mediocre fantasy performance for most of the year was not really his fault. If you believed in his talent, which I did, you realize he just needed to be put in the right position to succeed. But none of that makes him having a solid year obvious. I'm pretty sure there was a Ryan Mathews crying thread started a few weeks into the season for a reason and most of that had to do with the ill way the coaches were using him.

menobrown · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
RB10 F.Jackson - nope. Nobody can claim they saw this coming. Coach claimed they were going to run Spiller until he puked, they lost a pro bowl lineman, and Freddy just turned 32 coming off two leg injuries. Had Spiller not sustained the high ankle sprain, I don't think this season happens nearly to the same extent. And no, I didn't draft Spiller in any leagues.

For me I think this topped my list. Lot's of crazy stuff, especially with the QB rankings, but this one was really surprising.

Him doing well is in general surprising enough but really shocking to me after I watched him in the preseason. I told anyone that would listen to me he was done. Not sure I've ever seen a guy look as slow and old turn it on like he did in the preseason be able to turn it on during the season. Fooled me.

MattFancy · Jan 8, 2014

Chaka said:
MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Balance · Jan 8, 2014

That people still think they have better crystal balls than others.

zamboni · Jan 8, 2014

MattFancy said:
Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

Sabertooth · Jan 8, 2014

Ray Rice is interesting. High mileage but young. I think people just assumed he could withstand the gutting of his supporting cast. Will be interesting to see if he improves next year.

MattFancy · Jan 8, 2014

zamboni said:
MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Click to expand...

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

And I think that's what makes TE so tough to judge. Outside of Graham really, any of the other TEs could have games where they disappear. Julius Thomas has talent, but with so many options in the Denver passing game, he could have some quiet games. Same with Davis or any of the other guys. TE seems to be the position where if you can't get the top guy, just wait because there isn't a huge difference between the rest.

In my main league, the difference between TE1 (Graham) and TE2 (Gonzalez) was 5.3ppg. The difference between TE2 and TE15 (Garret Graham) was 5.4ppg.

FF Ninja · Jan 8, 2014

Steed said:
FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

It's easy to tell which people actually do their homework and which people just peruse stat lines and form strong opinions that they feel they must share. Mathews' rookie year was a disappointment due to taking over for LT, only averaging 13 carries and <2 receptions per game and only playing 12 games, but the sharper FF player looks a bit deeper. Mathews took over for what was thought to be a broken down LT who averaged a lowly 3.2 ypc the year before Mathews arrived, yet managed 4.1 ypc the next year behind a better offensive line - suggesting that maybe LT wasn't the problem. What did Mathews do behind the crap line in SD? 4.3 ypc. And of course he finished RB32 due to only playing 12 games, but he did average >10 ppg in 0ppr leagues when he was healthy, which is actually really good considering his lack of touches and the state of that line.

Looking even deeper, Mathews sustained a high ankle sprain in week 2 and rushed back into action just 2 weeks later. We've all see what a HAS can do to a player (see CJ Spiller 2012 vs. 2013) which makes his 4.3 ypc and 10+ ppg even more impressive. And that HAS in week 2 occurred in the 1st quarter. He reinjured the ankle in the 2nd quarter of week 9 - this time they held him out until week 14.

So Mathews may not have been able to amass a solid year end stat line with missing 4 games and at least 5 additional quarters, but his per game and per touch stats were actually quite good and were an indicator to anyone looking closely that he should easily be able to break into the top 10, which he promptly did in the next season in just 14 games played.

menobrown said:
FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

It not only was NOT obvious to start the season it was not obvious until the last few weeks of the season. Around mid-season people who owned Mathews were scrambling to find someone else to put in their lineup.

I drafted him in the 5th round of my two biggest money leagues, both high stakes leagues with short 11 week seasons. Reality of it is I'd have been better of passing on the pick because he killed my lineup so often to start the year before I wised up an started leaving him on my bench.

Things did not turn around for him until the coaching staff stopped using him in such a predictable fashion-running almost every snap he was in the game and starting involving him more in the passing game and giving him goal line carries.

So his early season poor and general mediocre fantasy performance for most of the year was not really his fault. If you believed in his talent, which I did, you realize he just needed to be put in the right position to succeed. But none of that makes him having a solid year obvious. I'm pretty sure there was a Ryan Mathews crying thread started a few weeks into the season for a reason and most of that had to do with the ill way the coaches were using him.

Good thing we don't do our drafts during week 4, eh?

I totally agree that his usage to being the year was bizarre and clearly not best for Mathews or the team, as the team/coaches have now clearly adjusted it. But for the first few weeks Mathews was getting the least valuable touches on the field. He was predictably touching the ball on about 75% of his snaps, the majority of which were runs up the middle on 1st down. He was also receiving very few targets and no goal line carries. I don't think anyone could have predicted that before the season.

However, you overstate this conundrum for people who took Mathews around RB25 as their RB3 or cheap RB2. He scored over 10 ppg in 0ppr leagues for 2 of his first 4 games despite this usage. He then sustained a concussion in week 5 and ripped off back to back 100 yard games including 1 TD starting in week 6 before a down game in Washington after the bye. After that one down game, he only hit single digits once (92 yards 0 TD week 13) until the meaningless week 17 game.

Bottom line, he was clearly talented as we can see from his first and second years in the league, Norv's stagnant offense was finally gone, and his only competition was a change of pace back (likely to take the 3rd down touches Mathews never had) and a 32 year old Ronnie Brown. So it was obvious that he had a high probability of outperforming his RB25 ADP. Early in the year it was disturbing, but he still produced about as consistently as other RB2/3 types taken around him.

Here's a list of guys near his ADP:

Miller

Mathews

Bernard

Ball

Bradshaw

D.Richardson

Ivory

D.Will

Mendy

Vereen

BJGE

Ingram

Soo... who would you have been better off with? After that you are looking at lottery tickets. Moreno being the obvious diamond in the rough later on in the draft. Stacy and Bell both had slow starts, much like Mathews, so you can't claim you'd have been better off there. They were also drafted later and were not an opportunity cost for drafting Mathews.

I stand by my statement that Mathews was an obvious bounce back pick even if he missed a couple games (thus not making him a lucky injury guess as presumed by warrior and steed).

FF Ninja · Jan 8, 2014

Chaka said:
MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

I worry about the Kaepernick/Crabtree connection. In the 2012 regular season when Kaep took over, Davis saw about 2 targets a game while Crabtree got 11. That improved in the playoffs, but it was still a bit concerning. Even without Crabtree this year, he only got 84 targets in 15 games. If not for the insanely high 13 TDs on only 52 receptions and career high tying 16.3 ypr, his numbers would not look so kind. If he slips back to 5-7 TDs and 13 ypr next year, he's right back in the middle of the pack. If he loses any of those targets to Crabtree, he could slip farther. Kaepernick only threw the ball 30 times last week (4 more than his average, actually) and 13 of those targets went to Crabtree. I think even with a bum achilles that Crabtree is going to be a great play next year, especially in PPR. Kaepernick loves him. Davis, not so much. In just six games back and no training camp or in season work, Crabtree has 46 targets. In 16 games, Davis has 91. Kaepernick only threw the ball 416 times this season.

I'm sure Davis will be the 3rd TE off the board (maybe 2nd if Gronk misses training camp), but that will be too rich for my blood for a guy certain to get less than 100 targets. I'm not rolling the dice on him scoring a TD every 4 receptions again. He's probably the most talented TE in the game, but you need targets to produce (Graham had 69% more targets than Davis and 33% more points than Davis - and a better QB than Davis).

MattFancy · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

I worry about the Kaepernick/Crabtree connection. In the 2012 regular season when Kaep took over, Davis saw about 2 targets a game while Crabtree got 11. That improved in the playoffs, but it was still a bit concerning. Even without Crabtree this year, he only got 84 targets in 15 games. If not for the insanely high 13 TDs on only 52 receptions and career high tying 16.3 ypr, his numbers would not look so kind. If he slips back to 5-7 TDs and 13 ypr next year, he's right back in the middle of the pack. If he loses any of those targets to Crabtree, he could slip farther. Kaepernick only threw the ball 30 times last week (4 more than his average, actually) and 13 of those targets went to Crabtree. I think even with a bum achilles that Crabtree is going to be a great play next year, especially in PPR. Kaepernick loves him. Davis, not so much. In just six games back and no training camp or in season work, Crabtree has 46 targets. In 16 games, Davis has 91. Kaepernick only threw the ball 416 times this season.

I'm sure Davis will be the 3rd TE off the board (maybe 2nd if Gronk misses training camp), but that will be too rich for my blood for a guy certain to get less than 100 targets. I'm not rolling the dice on him scoring a TD every 4 receptions again. He's probably the most talented TE in the game, but you need targets to produce (Graham had 69% more targets than Davis and 33% more points than Davis - and a better QB than Davis).

Well even looking at this season when Crabs was out for most of it, Vernon still had 2 games with 0 points, including one in the FF Championship week for most. He did have TDs in 6 of his final 7 games though, but that it was really saved him in most games.

It's just so hard to predict what a TE will do week-to-week outside of Graham. He really is by far the best TE and it's not even close.

fightingillini · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

I worry about the Kaepernick/Crabtree connection. In the 2012 regular season when Kaep took over, Davis saw about 2 targets a game while Crabtree got 11. That improved in the playoffs, but it was still a bit concerning. Even without Crabtree this year, he only got 84 targets in 15 games. If not for the insanely high 13 TDs on only 52 receptions and career high tying 16.3 ypr, his numbers would not look so kind. If he slips back to 5-7 TDs and 13 ypr next year, he's right back in the middle of the pack. If he loses any of those targets to Crabtree, he could slip farther. Kaepernick only threw the ball 30 times last week (4 more than his average, actually) and 13 of those targets went to Crabtree. I think even with a bum achilles that Crabtree is going to be a great play next year, especially in PPR. Kaepernick loves him. Davis, not so much. In just six games back and no training camp or in season work, Crabtree has 46 targets. In 16 games, Davis has 91. Kaepernick only threw the ball 416 times this season.

I'm sure Davis will be the 3rd TE off the board (maybe 2nd if Gronk misses training camp), but that will be too rich for my blood for a guy certain to get less than 100 targets. I'm not rolling the dice on him scoring a TD every 4 receptions again. He's probably the most talented TE in the game, but you need targets to produce (Graham had 69% more targets than Davis and 33% more points than Davis - and a better QB than Davis).

I agree Davis will be TE3 in most drafts next year, but IMO he's a big step down from Graham and J Thomas, and Gronk if Gronk is healthy to start the season (big if).

Davis disappears way too much for me to invest a 5th round pick or so on him.

Davis' use is so game plan oriented.....SF primarily runs the ball a lot, and as Ninja said, Crabtree will take a lot of targets away from Davis. But opponents can't double Davis, so he will have opportunities for big seam plays down the middle.

Dr. Octopus · Jan 8, 2014

Steed said:
FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

Well, it could be that he didn't fall victim to the (in most cases) lazy and inaccurate "injury prone" label applied to players that have been injured in the past. Most RBs suffer injuries at some point in their careers - it's the nature of the beast.

Almost all of us will either beneift from our players staying healthy or will be burdened with injuries. That's the luck element of fantasy football.

Sweet Love · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
17seconds said:

I'd say Cameron had a breakout year. At draft time he was mostly a TE2, with some saying TE1. He fizzled out in the 2nd half but the Browns also lost their last 7 games. If you waited on TE and grabbed him in the 10th you were pretty damned happy. He's a top 5 TE now.

Click to expand...

I thought about including him, but his ADP was TE12 and he finished right there in the middle of TE1s. There was quite a bit of talk about him before the season. He finished TE5 and outscored Witten by 0.6 pts and had Gronk and Finley not gotten hurt he'd probably be a couple more spots down. Combine that with his second half fizzle and he didn't seem like a worthy addition to a list that had already gotten long, but I agree, he was a bit of a breakout guy and should generate some interest next year if they get a QB.

Totally agree with the approach, but TEs, IMO are a little different. The difference between in percentage of points (not total points) between TE12 and TE5-6 is greater than say WR12 and WR6. For example, in one of my leagues, Marshall was WR6 and Jordy Nelson was WR12 - Marshall had 276 points and Nelson had 240. Marshall had about 13% more points than Nelson. Witten was TE6 (Cameron actually finished TE2) with 227 points and Fleener was TE12 with 158 points. Witten ended with 30% more points than Fleener.

Where I am going with this is that a TE making a 6 place leap is much greater than a WR or a RB.

Tanner9919 · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja, thanks for starting this thread,and for taking the time for the write-up, good work!

the pieces were in place for Rivers having a bounce-back season, I think I mentioned somewhere that he'd do about 4200/32

same with Mathews,in a preseason thread I had him at 1200 rush yards

you knew Brady's 'fall' would happen , without weapons,you just couldn't see how he'd come close to the 40+ TD's people were projecting him for..

Gronk, along with Foster, Eli, were guys I put on a 'not with a 10-ft pole' thread..

I saw Trent Richardson coming a mile away - probably the only person on this board to do so - got ripped to shreds for it ( thanks Keith Lewis), I'm sure it was quite an unpopular opinion but I stuck to it..fantasyindex.com also had a nice breakdown of his 2012 stats,and it wasn't good..he was dead last in runs of 20+ yards or more, and second worst in terms of gaining 1 yard needed on 2nd/3rd and 1..stuff like that were glaring red flags that screamed 'not with a 10-ft pole'.

I had Edelman on a list of 'must-have' players, wasn't convinced Amendola would stay healthy,and when he would get hurt, it would be Edelman who would benefit the most..

didn't see David Wilson failing as badly as he did..I thought he'd be a top 5 RB, along with Spiller - my pick to be the #1 RB..

Ray Rice had been Mr Consistency, no one saw this coming..

someone mentioned the Giants - good answer, not one player on that team was worth a bag of peanuts.

don't know about you,but I nailed Moreno ..got him early on off of waivers, and rode the wave..

my league is pretty standard , NON ppr, 1pt per 10 rush and/or rec yards, 3-6pt tds depending on distance..Moreno scored 177.80 to Charles' 241.70..a meager 3.9ppg difference ..a top 5 pick was only 3.9 ppg better than a scrub waiver wire pick up..I got killed for this, too, mentioned it early on in another thread, that relative to ADP, Moreno's value > Charles' value. still stand by that..

I'd rather draft Megatron and get Moreno off waivers,than draft Charles and pick up Brian Hartline.

what I've learned is that you win by plucking guys off of the waiver wire,and that high-end Rb production can be found in later rounds..the key is to get Jimmy Graham and Witten , Demarius Thomas, Megatron, early on..they're so steady with production that it can't be overlooked..

Chaka · Jan 8, 2014

zamboni said:
MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Click to expand...

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

He has scored a TD in 12 of 18 games this season, including the last two with Crabtree in the lineup. He also has a 16 YPC which is ridiculous for a TE. Really he is the only TE capable of putting up 16+ YPC.

Graham is surefire #1 but after that you should have no problem slotting Davis @ #2. Sure if Gronk was completely healthy I could see him at #2 but he will always have more physical question marks than any of the top TEs. I love Julius Thomas too but Denver has a lot more mouths to feed on offense than SF and the Denver offense will regress next year. I am not as certain that the SF offense will improve.

Another thing to consider between Den v SF offenses is that Denver was 2nd in the NFL with 675 passing attempts and SF was dead last with 417. While it is possible that those numbers hold next season I think it is far more likely they both change possibly significantly. Last year SF threw 436 times and Denver threw 588 times, not big for Davis but huge for Thomas, either way it brings their opportunities closer.

I am not saying Davis>>>Thomas for sure, just that if you miss on Thomas early you should be thrilled to get Davis later in your draft.

Dinsy Ejotuz · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Spike said:

zamboni said:

Edelman at WR18 with 105 receptions was a big surprise. He did a good part of his damage without Gronkowski, but he significantly outplayed the much-heralded free agent Amendola - who was actually healthy most of the year.

As with the running game in NE, there are stats to be had at the WR position although it remains an enigma as to where those stats will go.

Click to expand...

Nope. He might have been on the field a decent amount but never close to healthy. It's due to that point that Edelman got (and ran with) his chance; especially early when Amendola was not even on the field. By the time Amendola was on the field with any regularity, Edelman had won (and earned) Brady's trust.

Click to expand...

Exactly. I thought about including Edelman but considered him an injury play due to Gronk missing so much time and Amendola being nicked up almost the entire year.

Dr. Octopus said:

FF Ninja said:

QB11 Foles - in just 10.5 games. Did anyone predict this? Will this continue or will Philly and/or Foles get figured out?

Click to expand...

I've seen this said before but I'm not sure what there is to figure out?

The "option" type running game is about as simple as could be and has been around forever. The passing game has a lot of moving pieces, but isn't really gimmicky.

One of the reasons that the stats get inflated is the up tempo nature of the offense and there isn't much that the oppositon can do to slow it down, outside of faking injuries, which will eventually lead to being penalized.

Click to expand...

Yeah, that was kind of lazily worded of me, but what I was getting at is that it isn't uncommon for a guy to come on strong for half a season and then flounder a bit afterwards. A good example would be Kaepernick this year. I don't know if he got figured out or just wasn't as good as he looked down the stretch last year. So with Foles I'm trying to figure out if I should've anticipated him being so good if forced into action and if he'll be anywhere near as valuable next year.

Foles is someone I've been high on since he was drafted and I ended up with him on almost all my rosters when the music stopped, but no way could you have seen 27/2 coming.

And take this for whatever you think it's worth, but since making sense out of Foles is a big part of my off-season planning I've spent a ton of time trying sort out who I think he really is.

So I went to PFR and used the season finder to get data on all young QBs since 1978, and generated a pretty simple measure of career performance through the end of their 25 year old season. Here are the top guys:

Dan Marino

Joe Montana

Jay Cutler (x)

Aaron Rodgers

Nick Foles

Matt Ryan (x)

Russell Wilson

Brett Favre

Peyton Manning

Carson Palmer (x)

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Philip Rivers

Robert Griffin III

When I married that list with my own QB model (for guys after 1998) there was reason to be skeptical of Cutler, Ryan and Palmer (the reason for the Xs).

Keep in mind that both Foles' and Wilson's 25-year old year will be 2014, and Robert Griffin has two more seasons before he turns 26. So Foles and Wilson could theoretically fall off with a very bad year, and Griffin is on fairly shaky ground.

zamboni · Jan 8, 2014

Chaka said:
zamboni said:

MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Click to expand...

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

Click to expand...

He has scored a TD in 12 of 18 games this season, including the last two with Crabtree in the lineup. He also has a 16 YPC which is ridiculous for a TE. Really he is the only TE capable of putting up 16+ YPC.

Graham is surefire #1 but after that you should have no problem slotting Davis @ #2. Sure if Gronk was completely healthy I could see him at #2 but he will always have more physical question marks than any of the top TEs. I love Julius Thomas too but Denver has a lot more mouths to feed on offense than SF and the Denver offense will regress next year. I am not as certain that the SF offense will improve.

Another thing to consider between Den v SF offenses is that Denver was 2nd in the NFL with 675 passing attempts and SF was dead last with 417. While it is possible that those numbers hold next season I think it is far more likely they both change possibly significantly. Last year SF threw 436 times and Denver threw 588 times, not big for Davis but huge for Thomas, either way it brings their opportunities closer.

I am not saying Davis>>>Thomas for sure, just that if you miss on Thomas early you should be thrilled to get Davis later in your draft.

The bolded part is what would give me some caution. As someone else mentioned, he had an inordinate amount of TDs, and that is really what boosted his fantasy stock. As we all know, TDs are very variable year-to-year - I'd rather have a consistent target monster. Granted, that might not be Thomas either if the Broncos offense regresses (agreed most likely).

bicycle_seat_sniffer · Jan 8, 2014

I for one saw the Manning year coming, figured another healthy offseason + Welker meant insane numbers, took him in 2/3 re-drafts.

biggest lesson, once a gain, hit the wire hard, and hit it even if you have a stud at the position, blocking someone else from getting Foles, Julius thomas, Zac Satcy, Keenan Allen is as huge as having them in your lineup.

Chaka · Jan 8, 2014

zamboni said:
Chaka said:

zamboni said:

MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.

He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

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Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

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Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

Click to expand...

He has scored a TD in 12 of 18 games this season, including the last two with Crabtree in the lineup. He also has a 16 YPC which is ridiculous for a TE. Really he is the only TE capable of putting up 16+ YPC.

Graham is surefire #1 but after that you should have no problem slotting Davis @ #2. Sure if Gronk was completely healthy I could see him at #2 but he will always have more physical question marks than any of the top TEs. I love Julius Thomas too but Denver has a lot more mouths to feed on offense than SF and the Denver offense will regress next year. I am not as certain that the SF offense will improve.

Another thing to consider between Den v SF offenses is that Denver was 2nd in the NFL with 675 passing attempts and SF was dead last with 417. While it is possible that those numbers hold next season I think it is far more likely they both change possibly significantly. Last year SF threw 436 times and Denver threw 588 times, not big for Davis but huge for Thomas, either way it brings their opportunities closer.

I am not saying Davis>>>Thomas for sure, just that if you miss on Thomas early you should be thrilled to get Davis later in your draft.

Click to expand...

The bolded part is what would give me some caution. As someone else mentioned, he had an inordinate amount of TDs, and that is really what boosted his fantasy stock. As we all know, TDs are very variable year-to-year - I'd rather have a consistent target monster. Granted, that might not be Thomas either if the Broncos offense regresses (agreed most likely).

Targets are awesome and I agree to a degree but after Graham, Witten is the heaviest targeted TE on the board. Would you take him over Gronk, Thomas or Davis?

Coeur de Lion · Jan 8, 2014

zamboni said:
Chaka said:

zamboni said:

MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Click to expand...

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

Click to expand...

He has scored a TD in 12 of 18 games this season, including the last two with Crabtree in the lineup. He also has a 16 YPC which is ridiculous for a TE. Really he is the only TE capable of putting up 16+ YPC.Graham is surefire #1 but after that you should have no problem slotting Davis @ #2. Sure if Gronk was completely healthy I could see him at #2 but he will always have more physical question marks than any of the top TEs. I love Julius Thomas too but Denver has a lot more mouths to feed on offense than SF and the Denver offense will regress next year. I am not as certain that the SF offense will improve.

Another thing to consider between Den v SF offenses is that Denver was 2nd in the NFL with 675 passing attempts and SF was dead last with 417. While it is possible that those numbers hold next season I think it is far more likely they both change possibly significantly. Last year SF threw 436 times and Denver threw 588 times, not big for Davis but huge for Thomas, either way it brings their opportunities closer.

I am not saying Davis>>>Thomas for sure, just that if you miss on Thomas early you should be thrilled to get Davis later in your draft.

Click to expand...

The bolded part is what would give me some caution. As someone else mentioned, he had an inordinate amount of TDs, and that is really what boosted his fantasy stock. As we all know, TDs are very variable year-to-year - I'd rather have a consistent target monster. Granted, that might not be Thomas either if the Broncos offense regresses (agreed most likely).

I've always loved Davis as a fantastic and complete NFL TE, but he's been inconsistent and generally over-valued in FF.

If his yards / catch and TDs / catch normalize to his (still very strong) career numbers, assuming his targets and catches stay fairly consistent, we're looking at < 700 yards, 7 TDs, and a low TE1 finish in PPR.

Also, he was going off of the board as the 5th TE last year -- when he was coming off of a horrid season. He'll almost certainly creep up into the top 3 or so TEs in 2014, so you'll be drafting him at his upside in all likelihood, barring a significant change in the SF passing offense.

Receiving TDs are also hugely volatile year to year -- I'll likely be passing on both Davis and Thomas in 2014. I'd much rather either pay more for Graham (or Gronk for that matter) or wait and grab the unsexy value represented by the Olsens and Clays of the world.

zamboni · Jan 8, 2014

Chaka said:
Targets are awesome and I agree to a degree but after Graham, Witten is the heaviest targeted TE on the board. Would you take him over Gronk, Thomas or Davis?

Assuming you're talking redraft, as Witten is getting up there. I wouldn't take him over Gronk orThomas, but it would be close with Davis.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · Jan 8, 2014

Coeur de Lion said:
zamboni said:

Chaka said:

zamboni said:

MattFancy said:

Chaka said:

MattFancy said:

What I learned:

TEs are a total crapshoot going into next year outside of Graham and Thomas. Will be interesting to see when Gronk comes back and if he can play a full season. Cameron, VDavis, Pitta, Witten, Gates (or Ladarius Green) are all pretty even. So if you can't get Graham or Thomas, just wait at TE.

Click to expand...

IMO Vernon Davis is a very big step above Cameron, Pitta, Witten and Gates.He should be considered a top 3 TE going into next year.

Click to expand...

Yeah I could buy that. He does have some games where he disappears though, but I'd agree he's probably the TE3 heading into next year.

Click to expand...

Top 3 is possible, but I could just as easily a drop to top 7 or so. Davis has the talent, but when you factor in that Kaep will presumably have a healthy Crabtree next year - who he seems to lock in on - and an offense dedicated to the running game, the bloating passing stats may not be there. VD will always have his share of big games, but some inconsistency may bump him down from the top guys.

Click to expand...

He has scored a TD in 12 of 18 games this season, including the last two with Crabtree in the lineup. He also has a 16 YPC which is ridiculous for a TE. Really he is the only TE capable of putting up 16+ YPC.Graham is surefire #1 but after that you should have no problem slotting Davis @ #2. Sure if Gronk was completely healthy I could see him at #2 but he will always have more physical question marks than any of the top TEs. I love Julius Thomas too but Denver has a lot more mouths to feed on offense than SF and the Denver offense will regress next year. I am not as certain that the SF offense will improve.

Another thing to consider between Den v SF offenses is that Denver was 2nd in the NFL with 675 passing attempts and SF was dead last with 417. While it is possible that those numbers hold next season I think it is far more likely they both change possibly significantly. Last year SF threw 436 times and Denver threw 588 times, not big for Davis but huge for Thomas, either way it brings their opportunities closer.

I am not saying Davis>>>Thomas for sure, just that if you miss on Thomas early you should be thrilled to get Davis later in your draft.

Click to expand...

The bolded part is what would give me some caution. As someone else mentioned, he had an inordinate amount of TDs, and that is really what boosted his fantasy stock. As we all know, TDs are very variable year-to-year - I'd rather have a consistent target monster. Granted, that might not be Thomas either if the Broncos offense regresses (agreed most likely).

Click to expand...

I've always loved Davis as a fantastic and complete NFL TE, but he's been inconsistent and generally over-valued in FF.

If his yards / catch and TDs / catch normalize to his (still very strong) career numbers, assuming his targets and catches stay fairly consistent, we're looking at < 700 yards, 7 TDs, and a low TE1 finish in PPR.

Also, he was going off of the board as the 5th TE last year -- when he was coming off of a horrid season. He'll almost certainly creep up into the top 3 or so TEs in 2014, so you'll be drafting him at his upside in all likelihood, barring a significant change in the SF passing offense.

Receiving TDs are also hugely volatile year to year -- I'll likely be passing on both Davis and Thomas in 2014. I'd much rather either pay more for Graham (or Gronk for that matter) or wait and grab the unsexy value represented by the Olsens and Clays of the world.

a word of caution on VD for next year, if Crabtree is 100% I think he's Kaepers go to guy, could negatively effect VDs numbers some

TheNext0 · Jan 8, 2014

One thing I want to share about Matt Ryan, who I owned for the first half of the season, is that he was in a perfect storm of bad luck this year. They continually rolled Roddy White out as a decoy on offense for the majority of the season, which seemed like such a waste. When Julio went down (and SJax, too), teams were able to focus on TonyG and really restrict Ryan's upside. I will gladly take him at a discount next year if I decide to wait on a QB, I still really like his talent and the weapons he will have. Lost season for ATL and expect them to bounce back next year.

bicycle_seat_sniffer · Jan 8, 2014

TheNext0 said:
One thing I want to share about Matt Ryan, who I owned for the first half of the season, is that he was in a perfect storm of bad luck this year. They continually rolled Roddy White out as a decoy on offense for the majority of the season, which seemed like such a waste. When Julio went down (and SJax, too), teams were able to focus on TonyG and really restrict Ryan's upside. I will gladly take him at a discount next year if I decide to wait on a QB, I still really like his talent and the weapons he will have. Lost season for ATL and expect them to bounce back next year.

I agree with this wholeheartedly

He was top4 before Julio went down and that was with a gimpy White and Sjax

Ill gladly snag him on the cheap next year

Steed · Jan 8, 2014

Dr. Octopus said:
Steed said:

FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

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Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

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To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

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Well, it could be that he didn't fall victim to the (in most cases) lazy and inaccurate "injury prone" label applied to players that have been injured in the past. Most RBs suffer injuries at some point in their careers - it's the nature of the beast.

Almost all of us will either beneift from our players staying healthy or will be burdened with injuries. That's the luck element of fantasy football.

My lazy analysis told me he never played a full season going back to high school. I'm ready to double down on it next year when the in-the-know Mathews lovers take him in the 3rd round or higher next year and I avoid him.

Steed · Jan 8, 2014

FF Ninja said:
Steed said:

FF Ninja said:

Warrior said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

I'm guessing you made the same "obvious" breakout prediction for Darren McFadden, right? Since they're both constantly injured, yet you felt Mathews' big season was "obvious"

In reality, it wasn't "haters" that kept his value down. It was due to injury concerns. He just happened to stay healthy for once in his career. Good job in predicting injuries.

Good list otherwise.

Click to expand...

Um, no. He did essentially miss a game with a concussion, but this would've been a nice season even if he had missed another game or two. You seem to forget that his rookie year wasn't too bad and his second year was great. I guess you were one of the people who got burned in year 3 and wrote him off because he not only got hurt but also was stuck in a stagnant, predictable offense that saw his per touch metrics drop to 3.8 ypc and 6.5 YPR. I drafted him expecting him to miss a couple games, but also expecting his touches and yards per touch to increase along with touchdowns. So even if he played another 14 game season, he was still an obvious steal at RB25.

Also, I do not consider him in the same injury ballpark as McFadden, nor did I think Oakland's offense would be as good as San Diego's.

Click to expand...

To be fair Mathews didn't have a good rookie season. Coming into 2013 he had one good season where mike Tolbert did a lot of the heavy lifting, and two utter bust seasons. Like Warrior said, you profited but mostly because you called an injury or non injury in this case correctly. No amount of analysis can predict that.

Click to expand...

It's easy to tell which people actually do their homework and which people just peruse stat lines and form strong opinions that they feel they must share. Mathews' rookie year was a disappointment due to taking over for LT, only averaging 13 carries and <2 receptions per game and only playing 12 games, but the sharper FF player looks a bit deeper. Mathews took over for what was thought to be a broken down LT who averaged a lowly 3.2 ypc the year before Mathews arrived, yet managed 4.1 ypc the next year behind a better offensive line - suggesting that maybe LT wasn't the problem. What did Mathews do behind the crap line in SD? 4.3 ypc. And of course he finished RB32 due to only playing 12 games, but he did average >10 ppg in 0ppr leagues when he was healthy, which is actually really good considering his lack of touches and the state of that line.

Looking even deeper, Mathews sustained a high ankle sprain in week 2 and rushed back into action just 2 weeks later. We've all see what a HAS can do to a player (see CJ Spiller 2012 vs. 2013) which makes his 4.3 ypc and 10+ ppg even more impressive. And that HAS in week 2 occurred in the 1st quarter. He reinjured the ankle in the 2nd quarter of week 9 - this time they held him out until week 14.

So Mathews may not have been able to amass a solid year end stat line with missing 4 games and at least 5 additional quarters, but his per game and per touch stats were actually quite good and were an indicator to anyone looking closely that he should easily be able to break into the top 10, which he promptly did in the next season in just 14 games played.

menobrown said:

FF Ninja said:

RB12 Mathews - plenty of haters kept his value down despite a good rookie year and an excellent 2nd year. I feel like this one was obvious.

Click to expand...

It not only was NOT obvious to start the season it was not obvious until the last few weeks of the season. Around mid-season people who owned Mathews were scrambling to find someone else to put in their lineup.

I drafted him in the 5th round of my two biggest money leagues, both high stakes leagues with short 11 week seasons. Reality of it is I'd have been better of passing on the pick because he killed my lineup so often to start the year before I wised up an started leaving him on my bench.

Things did not turn around for him until the coaching staff stopped using him in such a predictable fashion-running almost every snap he was in the game and starting involving him more in the passing game and giving him goal line carries.

So his early season poor and general mediocre fantasy performance for most of the year was not really his fault. If you believed in his talent, which I did, you realize he just needed to be put in the right position to succeed. But none of that makes him having a solid year obvious. I'm pretty sure there was a Ryan Mathews crying thread started a few weeks into the season for a reason and most of that had to do with the ill way the coaches were using him.

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Good thing we don't do our drafts during week 4, eh?

I totally agree that his usage to being the year was bizarre and clearly not best for Mathews or the team, as the team/coaches have now clearly adjusted it. But for the first few weeks Mathews was getting the least valuable touches on the field. He was predictably touching the ball on about 75% of his snaps, the majority of which were runs up the middle on 1st down. He was also receiving very few targets and no goal line carries. I don't think anyone could have predicted that before the season.

However, you overstate this conundrum for people who took Mathews around RB25 as their RB3 or cheap RB2. He scored over 10 ppg in 0ppr leagues for 2 of his first 4 games despite this usage. He then sustained a concussion in week 5 and ripped off back to back 100 yard games including 1 TD starting in week 6 before a down game in Washington after the bye. After that one down game, he only hit single digits once (92 yards 0 TD week 13) until the meaningless week 17 game.

Bottom line, he was clearly talented as we can see from his first and second years in the league, Norv's stagnant offense was finally gone, and his only competition was a change of pace back (likely to take the 3rd down touches Mathews never had) and a 32 year old Ronnie Brown. So it was obvious that he had a high probability of outperforming his RB25 ADP. Early in the year it was disturbing, but he still produced about as consistently as other RB2/3 types taken around him.

Here's a list of guys near his ADP:

Miller

Mathews

Bernard

Ball

Bradshaw

D.Richardson

Ivory

D.Will

Mendy

Vereen

BJGE

Ingram

Soo... who would you have been better off with? After that you are looking at lottery tickets. Moreno being the obvious diamond in the rough later on in the draft. Stacy and Bell both had slow starts, much like Mathews, so you can't claim you'd have been better off there. They were also drafted later and were not an opportunity cost for drafting Mathews.

I stand by my statement that Mathews was an obvious bounce back pick even if he missed a couple games (thus not making him a lucky injury guess as presumed by warrior and steed).

This is rich. You realize this talented guy got outplayed by a fb his 1st 2 years in the league right? Tolbert was an absolute nobody when he outplayed Mathews as a rookie. That's right, he had 38 carries to his name when Mathews was drafted. Even Ronnie brown and Curtis Brinkley looked better than 2012 Mathews did. I know, Mathews wasn't fully healthy then...that's the point Jabroni!

Ilov80s · Jan 8, 2014

MattFancy said:
WRs have the best chance of living up to their ADP. Calvin, Marshall, Dez, Demaryius were 4 of the top 5 WRs taken in most drafts.

AJ Green was a top 5 drafted WR and lived up to it this year. Julio was right up there and looked poised to have a career year before the injury.

MattFancy · Jan 8, 2014

Ilov80s said:
MattFancy said:

WRs have the best chance of living up to their ADP. Calvin, Marshall, Dez, Demaryius were 4 of the top 5 WRs taken in most drafts.

Click to expand...

AJ Green was a top 5 drafted WR and lived up to it this year. Julio was right up there and looked poised to have a career year before the injury.

Don't know how I could forget about Green. Julio was certainly up there before his injury.

WR is one of the few positions where the ADP was pretty damn close to how they finished.

FF Ninja · Jan 8, 2014

Steed said:
This is rich. You realize this talented guy got outplayed by a fb his 1st 2 years in the league right? Tolbert was an absolute nobody when he outplayed Mathews as a rookie. That's right, he had 38 carries to his name when Mathews was drafted. Even Ronnie brown and Curtis Brinkley looked better than 2012 Mathews did. I know, Mathews wasn't fully healthy then...that's the point Jabroni!

As hard as it is to resist correcting ignorant, opinionated people, I'm going to have to suggest that we move on for the sake of the thread. If you think Tolbert outplayed Mathews then you are exactly the type of person that I don't want to bounce ideas off of or attempt to glean information from. You can't be helped. It is clearly past time to put this steed out to pasture. Happy trolling to you.

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