I think it's pretty obvious, I believe the RB on an offense that scores 50+ TDs has a higher floor than a RB on an offense that scores 30+ TDs, if they are similar tiers and talents. Another factor is the percentage of sustained drives vs. 3 and outs. I'm not saying it's a science, clearly Peterson has had all-world seasons on bad offenses, he's one of the greatest RBs of all time. My personal believe that I draft based on, is that you can tie the floor of a RB to the offense, as the TDs will be there.
And it's not based on any statistical research, so I could very well be wrong. I've just had too many years where my lead RB was on a poor offense, and despite his glowing history, underperformed when healthy and I wished I had taken overall offense more into account (Larry Johnson on the decaying KC offense jumps to mind, Steven Jackson on the decaying STL offense as well).
You can disagree. Unlike many on this board, I'm not looking at changing your opinion or trying to win an argument. I'm not even saying I'm correct. It is just my philosophy that I feel most comfortable drafting based on.
Well for starters, we're
not talking about similar talents here.
Secondly, you're eliminating an entire aspect to "floor" here. Lacy is still very unproven. The list of RBs that have had great rookie seasons and then fallen off a cliff in year two is a very long one. Eddie Lacy's floor includes the risk that he will follow a similar path to Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Steve Slaton, Trent Richardson, or any of a dozen other guys that have had a strong fantasy rookie year and fallen flat in year 2.
Lastly, I do think that you're putting too much stock into the strength of the offense, as many FFers do. For instance, here is the rank of the passing offenses of the top 10 fantasy RBs of 2012.
1) 31st
2) 10th
3) 11th
4) 27th
5) 20th
6) 15th
7) 25th
8) 19th
9) 32nd
10) 4th
2011 was similar, while 2013 turned things around quite a bit. Regardless, over the last 5 years there is a stronger statistical correlation to the theory that a BAD passing offense results in a strong fantasy running back than there is that a GOOD passing offense results in a strong fantasy running back.
Again, I'm not trying to convince you I'm right, I'm very comfortable with my own position.
1) There is not a single RB with the talent level of Adrian Peterson. However, I think Eddie Lacy is a very talented player, and I don't think there is a giant difference in talent between him and an older Adrian Peterson to make the comparison so insane. And, I purposely worded as same tier/talent, not just talent.
2) You pick out that I'm leaving out unproven as a component of floor. I can just as easily pick out you leaving out age and number of carries as a component of floor. There are thousands of variables to take into account, but when I have two players rated closely, as I do with these two, and the end of the day the most important variable to me to break a tie is the quality of the overall offense.
3) You can't use 2012 as proof that my argument is wrong, while in small fine print remarking that the most recent year of evidence supports my point but is somehow an outlier.
Also, you're using passing ranking, which has a number of flaws in regards to directly relating to my argument. My main argument would be, most of the top passing offenses of the past 5 years do not have a bell cow RB who is getting the majority of the carries and therefore has a reasonable chance to make the top 10 individual runners. I'm looking at the top 10 passing offenses in 2012 - the year you chose:
#1 Saints - True RBBC with Thomas/Sproles/Ingram
#2 Lions - True RBBC with LeShoure/Bell and others
#3 Cowboys - Murray was hurt and missed half the year so no one runner would be top 10
#4 Pats - Ridley made top 10, despite sharing significant work with Vereen.
#5 Broncos - Starter changed between Hillman, Moreno, and McGahee
#6 Falcons - Turner made your list at 6, despite being a terrible runner the offense got him significant goal-line carries - my exact argument
#7 Colts - RBBC and changing starter between Ballard and Brown
#8 Raiders - McFadden missed half the year
#9 Packers - RBBC
#10 Bucs - Martin finished 2nd
Of the top 10 passing offenses in 2012, your year of argument, everyone that had one starter healthy for most of the year finished top 10 rushing.