karmarooster
Footballguy
I wanted to start a thread dedicated to discussing some guys who we as a fantasy community have collectively "written off" before they've been given due time to develop in the NFL. Remember the 3rd year Wide Receiver breakout rule? It was one of the earlier ideas in this golden age of fantasy football, but it can and should apply to other positions.
The danger in taking a stance on these players right now is that very soon we'll have more, better evidence to add to the files. Right now is precisely the wrong time of year to base a conclusion on a player on a stale "trend" that developed over the past season or two.
Instead, we are soon to be presented with new data points in the form of camp updates, pre-season games, and of course the first few games of the regular season. During this time of year we should be open to re-considering players who we've previously written-off much too soon. And because most owners have stale notions on the players below due mostly to past performance, right now represents a good buy-low window before the next chapters can be written.
Quarterbacks:
Geno Smith (23) - did he stink at times last year? Of course... but he was exactly the kind of hot-and-cold quarterback he was in college, with very high highs and very low lows. On the plus side, he started 16 games as a rookie, and three multi-TD games and one 300+ yard game. By fully-mature QB standards he was objectively bad, but when has a rookie QB not been bad? You can count the times on one hand (Manning, Luck, RG3, Cam). He's borderline not-drafted in startups right now, but would anyone really be surprised if he takes a small step forward this year, and turns into a decent QB by year 3?
EJ Manuel (24) - almost everything that applies for Geno applies for EJ. The one exception is health - and he generally looked shakier making reads and throws than Geno, yet for some reason EJ remains a (slightly) more valuable commodity. The additional weapons on offense should give him a greater chance to succeed, however. It's usually a mistake to call any QB a bust after just one season... they almost all look bad.
The historical track record for late-1st or borderline-1st round QBs isn't great - I'm not advocating them as future superstars, but they could be decent in the future. Considering how cheap they are, the only opportunity cost is the roster spot itself. If, by mid-season, EJ still looks uncomfortable and Geno is still in danger of a melt-down every other game, they are easily drop-able for the latest waiver-wire sensation.
Running Backs:
Marcus Lattimore (22) - the latest news about him on the NFI list isn't encouraging, but it isn't the death-kneel, either... (yet). If 3-6 weeks from now he still isn't practicing, then by all means feel free to move on. But we've basically been waiting 18 months since he was drafted and redshirted to see how much talent remains after his injury. Why make that call now, rather than a very short time from now? IIRC, he could've practiced at some point late last season, and did participate in OTAs. My point here is that his talent deserves just a fraction more of the time we've already spent waiting to see what he still could be. If Willis McGahee and Danario Alexander can come back from their injuries, there's a chance Lattimore could, too. Update - the latest news on Hunter is really disappointing, but it means that health permitting, Lattimore could contribute this year as the 3rd RB.
David Wilson (23) - quick, name the last RB to be selected in the 1st round? With the 32nd pick of the 2012 draft, it was Wilson, with Gio and Sankey missing the cut the last two years. This buy-low ship may have sailed with his clearance for contact and assuming the #2 RB role. Even still, there's a reason his hype train practically went nuclear last offseason - just watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGbRZHcefD8. Either the neck injury is a career roadblock, or it's a non-issue, and we simply don't have the crystal ball to know. As he was a borderline 1st rounder in startups just 12 months ago and now finds himself in the double-digit rounds (for now), his upside is just to appetizing for the price. Watching those highlights from 2012 you see a player with elite speed and elusiveness who, unlike many such backs (ahem, young CJ Spiller), is very comfortable running through the middle of the defense and in high traffic, and doesn't bounce everything outside. Ball security can be learned (AP, Tiki), that sort of running ability cannot. Just two more seasons left on his rookie contract... by then, he'll either be a stud on the Giants or a stud for someone else at age 25 as a FA... so long as the neck holds up.
Bryce Brown (23) - I was buying before he got shipped to Buffalo, but he still remains somewhat of a buy-low opportunity. I saw him go as an 11th rounder in a startup recently whereas I picked him up in the 20th before the trade. Consider that Brown was able to dominate NFL defense in 2012 ... as a 21-year old. Sure the Panthers and Cowboys (372 combined yards against them) were bad, but they were stocked full of older grown men with defensive experience in the NFL. He's still younger than some NFL rookies (Sims), or soon-to-be NFL stars (Michael). The ability, particularly as a RB, to dominate NFL defenses at an extremely young age is an under-rated signal that a player has a very high ceiling. Compare Brown's age-21 seeason (4.9 ypc) to LeSean McCoy's 21-year old season (4.1 ypc).
Mark Ingram (24) - this guy ran with an urgency last year that he had not previously shown in the NFL. Running backs are often the players we expect most to show promise at an earlier age, and for good reason. But he may have never been truly healthy until last season, and has never played in an offense that gets him regular touches. There's a slim chance he turns into a reliable flex of RB3 this year year, but more likely, he's a 25-year old free agent who could easily find himself in a Ben Tate-Rashad Jennings situation next year ... almost any team is going to present a better opportunity for him to get regular touches than splitting time on the Saints with a half-dozen other RBs. As good as a play-caller as Sean Payton is, he's been painfully obvious that when Ingram is in the game, a run up the middle is coming. If he can get a few more looks in the passing game with Sproles gone, he might be able to improve his YPA as well.
Wide Receivers:
Stephen Hill (23) - he's 6'4'', 215, a former early-2nd pick, and has the size-speed combo that only a few elite-of-the-elite WRs possess (DT, Julio, Calvin; bigger than Dez, thicker than AJ). Yet due to health and drops has been written off completely as a bust before his 3rd season. As a raw 2nd year with Geno Smith throwing the ball on a bad Jets team, still put up decent games (3-108-1) and as a 21-year old rookie in his first NFL game ever (5-89-2). If he battles drops and knees this season, feel free to place him in the Greg Little bin... but for now, he's everything you look for in a breakout WR with a very low price tag. And if the Jets/Geno combo never lets him develop, has just two more years on his rookie contract when he'll be a 25 year old FA. His numbers in years 1 and 2 compare not-too-unfavorably to Justin Hunter's rookie year, and yet Hill is about a dozen rounds cheaper.
Hakeem Nicks/Kenny Britt (26) - doesn't exactly fit the mold of the younger players above, but I needed more WRs. New teams are exactly what these two needed. Both were once top-10 WR prospects earlier in their careers, because both showed the ability to dominate in short-to-medium stretches. Both have one-year prove it deals which should amp them up to "$get paid$"... but that logic should have applied to them both last year as well. Britt playing for Fisher and Nicks playing with the best QB of his career ... these guys represent not just buy-low opportunities for dynasty but for re-draft as well (ADP in the double-digit rounds for both). Both have health concerns, but both are also now removed by a decent stretch of time to let those injuries heal. We'll know at some point this season whether either has that elite upside they both once possessed.
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Not on the List - Tavon Austin - while he's still young and has the chance to improve on his disaster of a rookie year, he just doesn't have the size to ever be a consistent contributor for fantasy. Could be a better NFL player than fantasy asset as a returner/gadget player. But the combo of his OC and the strength of the Rams defense, plus their Fisher-ball mentality and a number of other, bigger WRs on his team... I doubt he'll ever live up to his NFL draft position. He's an inconsistent WR3, who has the upside of developing into an inconsistent WR2.
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What say you to these players - why should they be written off as busts or valued on the margins, in most cases before their 2nd or 3rd NFL season?
Or, what other players are you not ready to write-off just yet?
The danger in taking a stance on these players right now is that very soon we'll have more, better evidence to add to the files. Right now is precisely the wrong time of year to base a conclusion on a player on a stale "trend" that developed over the past season or two.
Instead, we are soon to be presented with new data points in the form of camp updates, pre-season games, and of course the first few games of the regular season. During this time of year we should be open to re-considering players who we've previously written-off much too soon. And because most owners have stale notions on the players below due mostly to past performance, right now represents a good buy-low window before the next chapters can be written.
Quarterbacks:
Geno Smith (23) - did he stink at times last year? Of course... but he was exactly the kind of hot-and-cold quarterback he was in college, with very high highs and very low lows. On the plus side, he started 16 games as a rookie, and three multi-TD games and one 300+ yard game. By fully-mature QB standards he was objectively bad, but when has a rookie QB not been bad? You can count the times on one hand (Manning, Luck, RG3, Cam). He's borderline not-drafted in startups right now, but would anyone really be surprised if he takes a small step forward this year, and turns into a decent QB by year 3?
EJ Manuel (24) - almost everything that applies for Geno applies for EJ. The one exception is health - and he generally looked shakier making reads and throws than Geno, yet for some reason EJ remains a (slightly) more valuable commodity. The additional weapons on offense should give him a greater chance to succeed, however. It's usually a mistake to call any QB a bust after just one season... they almost all look bad.
The historical track record for late-1st or borderline-1st round QBs isn't great - I'm not advocating them as future superstars, but they could be decent in the future. Considering how cheap they are, the only opportunity cost is the roster spot itself. If, by mid-season, EJ still looks uncomfortable and Geno is still in danger of a melt-down every other game, they are easily drop-able for the latest waiver-wire sensation.
Running Backs:
Marcus Lattimore (22) - the latest news about him on the NFI list isn't encouraging, but it isn't the death-kneel, either... (yet). If 3-6 weeks from now he still isn't practicing, then by all means feel free to move on. But we've basically been waiting 18 months since he was drafted and redshirted to see how much talent remains after his injury. Why make that call now, rather than a very short time from now? IIRC, he could've practiced at some point late last season, and did participate in OTAs. My point here is that his talent deserves just a fraction more of the time we've already spent waiting to see what he still could be. If Willis McGahee and Danario Alexander can come back from their injuries, there's a chance Lattimore could, too. Update - the latest news on Hunter is really disappointing, but it means that health permitting, Lattimore could contribute this year as the 3rd RB.
David Wilson (23) - quick, name the last RB to be selected in the 1st round? With the 32nd pick of the 2012 draft, it was Wilson, with Gio and Sankey missing the cut the last two years. This buy-low ship may have sailed with his clearance for contact and assuming the #2 RB role. Even still, there's a reason his hype train practically went nuclear last offseason - just watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGbRZHcefD8. Either the neck injury is a career roadblock, or it's a non-issue, and we simply don't have the crystal ball to know. As he was a borderline 1st rounder in startups just 12 months ago and now finds himself in the double-digit rounds (for now), his upside is just to appetizing for the price. Watching those highlights from 2012 you see a player with elite speed and elusiveness who, unlike many such backs (ahem, young CJ Spiller), is very comfortable running through the middle of the defense and in high traffic, and doesn't bounce everything outside. Ball security can be learned (AP, Tiki), that sort of running ability cannot. Just two more seasons left on his rookie contract... by then, he'll either be a stud on the Giants or a stud for someone else at age 25 as a FA... so long as the neck holds up.
Bryce Brown (23) - I was buying before he got shipped to Buffalo, but he still remains somewhat of a buy-low opportunity. I saw him go as an 11th rounder in a startup recently whereas I picked him up in the 20th before the trade. Consider that Brown was able to dominate NFL defense in 2012 ... as a 21-year old. Sure the Panthers and Cowboys (372 combined yards against them) were bad, but they were stocked full of older grown men with defensive experience in the NFL. He's still younger than some NFL rookies (Sims), or soon-to-be NFL stars (Michael). The ability, particularly as a RB, to dominate NFL defenses at an extremely young age is an under-rated signal that a player has a very high ceiling. Compare Brown's age-21 seeason (4.9 ypc) to LeSean McCoy's 21-year old season (4.1 ypc).
Mark Ingram (24) - this guy ran with an urgency last year that he had not previously shown in the NFL. Running backs are often the players we expect most to show promise at an earlier age, and for good reason. But he may have never been truly healthy until last season, and has never played in an offense that gets him regular touches. There's a slim chance he turns into a reliable flex of RB3 this year year, but more likely, he's a 25-year old free agent who could easily find himself in a Ben Tate-Rashad Jennings situation next year ... almost any team is going to present a better opportunity for him to get regular touches than splitting time on the Saints with a half-dozen other RBs. As good as a play-caller as Sean Payton is, he's been painfully obvious that when Ingram is in the game, a run up the middle is coming. If he can get a few more looks in the passing game with Sproles gone, he might be able to improve his YPA as well.
Wide Receivers:
Stephen Hill (23) - he's 6'4'', 215, a former early-2nd pick, and has the size-speed combo that only a few elite-of-the-elite WRs possess (DT, Julio, Calvin; bigger than Dez, thicker than AJ). Yet due to health and drops has been written off completely as a bust before his 3rd season. As a raw 2nd year with Geno Smith throwing the ball on a bad Jets team, still put up decent games (3-108-1) and as a 21-year old rookie in his first NFL game ever (5-89-2). If he battles drops and knees this season, feel free to place him in the Greg Little bin... but for now, he's everything you look for in a breakout WR with a very low price tag. And if the Jets/Geno combo never lets him develop, has just two more years on his rookie contract when he'll be a 25 year old FA. His numbers in years 1 and 2 compare not-too-unfavorably to Justin Hunter's rookie year, and yet Hill is about a dozen rounds cheaper.
Hakeem Nicks/Kenny Britt (26) - doesn't exactly fit the mold of the younger players above, but I needed more WRs. New teams are exactly what these two needed. Both were once top-10 WR prospects earlier in their careers, because both showed the ability to dominate in short-to-medium stretches. Both have one-year prove it deals which should amp them up to "$get paid$"... but that logic should have applied to them both last year as well. Britt playing for Fisher and Nicks playing with the best QB of his career ... these guys represent not just buy-low opportunities for dynasty but for re-draft as well (ADP in the double-digit rounds for both). Both have health concerns, but both are also now removed by a decent stretch of time to let those injuries heal. We'll know at some point this season whether either has that elite upside they both once possessed.
-----
Not on the List - Tavon Austin - while he's still young and has the chance to improve on his disaster of a rookie year, he just doesn't have the size to ever be a consistent contributor for fantasy. Could be a better NFL player than fantasy asset as a returner/gadget player. But the combo of his OC and the strength of the Rams defense, plus their Fisher-ball mentality and a number of other, bigger WRs on his team... I doubt he'll ever live up to his NFL draft position. He's an inconsistent WR3, who has the upside of developing into an inconsistent WR2.
-----
What say you to these players - why should they be written off as busts or valued on the margins, in most cases before their 2nd or 3rd NFL season?
Or, what other players are you not ready to write-off just yet?
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