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Matt Asiata - 2014 Outlook (1 Viewer)

93_Confirmed

93_Confirmed

Footballguy
Now that AP is likely done for the year, I wanted to start a new thread to focus just on Asiata and his outlook for the rest of the year. Do you guys think he'll hold onto the starting job and if so, what kind of production can we expect from him going forward? What players are you benching for him?

 
Great topic. Is he too slow to hold the job? His stat line wasn't great last week but he did get a TD but I just see him not putting up great numbers this week.

I do have him on my team but am hesitant on starting him because he doesn't seem like a starting RB in the NFL.

 
I think he is a matchup based play. Vs run defenses like chicago & GB, run him out there. When he plays a tough matchup, if you have a better option, stream them in. Asiatta looked like the guys they trusted last week for sure-- hope to see more work and more production this week!

I could see 900-100 & 6-8 TDs w/ 25-35 catches… Not bad for a RB2/3

 
He is nothing special and is not ADP so on a bad team like this he is just another bad player. I like him in PPR leagues more than standard league because he will catch 30-40 passes. But the team will be losing a lot and they play from behind vs a lot of good teams. He is a must add, but the expectations of this guy from what I am reading is over the top.

Other than his nice catch and run for a score last week, he was shut down and looked quite bad.

 
Pats put 8 in the box and forced Cassel to pass, which he isn't good at..

next 3 games, Saints,Falcons, Packers..then,starting Nov 2nd, Redskins, Bears, Packers..

a Norv Turner offense goes through the RB, and he's not one of the RBBC proponents, he prefers bell cow type backs..

perhaps you ride him next 3 weeks,then sell high..either way,he's here to stay!

 
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Minnesota has a solid offense - especially once Bridgewater takes over, which really should be sooner than later. I think Asiata has a high floor so I'm expecting something like 65 rush yards / 3 catches / 25 rec yards / 1TD per game. Roughly18 points a game in PPR.

 
Remember when Ryan Grant went down about 4 years ago and Brandon Jackson stepped in for the Packers? That's about what I'm expecting. League-average or slightly below YPC, but an asset in the receiving game. I would call him an RB2 in favorable matchups and a flex/bye week guy elsewhere. Looking at the next four weeks:

@Saints - okay, but not great, probably looking at another 4-5 catches; flex

vs. Falcons - terrible run D; RB2

@ Packers - decision pending this week's performance; at least a flex, maybe RB2

vs. Lions - sit him.

 
It's a pretty small sample size but Asiata started the last 2 games last year and then last week. The numbers:

2013-week 16 30-51-3td, 3-15

2013-week 17 14-115, 2-(-2)

2014-week 2 13-36, 5-48-1 td

I sort of view him as a Toby Gerhart level when starting. There is some value there but maybe more as a solid top backup type RB on a fantasy team.

 
Tanner9919 said:
Pats put 8 in the box and forced Cassel to pass, which he isn't good at..

next 3 games, Saints,Falcons, Packers..then,starting Nov 2nd, Redskins, Bears, Packers..

a Norv Turner offense goes through the RB, and he's not one of the RBBC proponents, he prefers bell cow type backs..

perhaps you ride him next 3 weeks,then sell high..either way,he's here to stay!
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Great point about Norv Turner's use of RBs. McKinnon has never been a full time runner and has no history of being able to catch the ball. If anyone has a chance at fantasy productivity in Minny this year it's Asiata or somebody not on currently on the roster. My bet is Asiata. And with the absolute destruction of RBs this past week (Charles, Mathews, Ingram to some extent) along with Ray Rice, Martin, Ben Tate, etc., there is uncertainty everywhere and I don't think you can roster enough starting RBs that can catch and pass block, regardless if he has an elite skill set.
 
93_Confirmed said:
Now that AP is likely done for the year, I wanted to start a new thread to focus just on Asiata and his outlook for the rest of the year. Do you guys think he'll hold onto the starting job and if so, what kind of production can we expect from him going forward? What players are you benching for him?
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How confident are we of this? Yes he is out of the picture for now, but what is leading us to this full conclusion? Is the presumption that they will not activate him until all of the court proceedings have been completed and that this due process will extend beyond the season?

 
Polish Hammer said:
93_Confirmed said:
Now that AP is likely done for the year, I wanted to start a new thread to focus just on Asiata and his outlook for the rest of the year. Do you guys think he'll hold onto the starting job and if so, what kind of production can we expect from him going forward? What players are you benching for him?
Click to expand...
How confident are we of this? Yes he is out of the picture for now, but what is leading us to this full conclusion? Is the presumption that they will not activate him until all of the court proceedings have been completed and that this due process will extend beyond the season?
Click to expand...
There will be no shortage of speculation for the foreseeable future for AP, but one thing is certain, advertisers and sponsors couldn't jump ship fast enough. The Vikings have a PR nightmare on their hands and I personally think he will have to play elsewhere if he plays again.
 
Polish Hammer said:
93_Confirmed said:
Now that AP is likely done for the year, I wanted to start a new thread to focus just on Asiata and his outlook for the rest of the year. Do you guys think he'll hold onto the starting job and if so, what kind of production can we expect from him going forward? What players are you benching for him?
Click to expand...
How confident are we of this? Yes he is out of the picture for now, but what is leading us to this full conclusion? Is the presumption that they will not activate him until all of the court proceedings have been completed and that this due process will extend beyond the season?
Click to expand...
I am confident that he's out for most of the year if not the entire year. The Vikings have already said (today) that they intend to bring him back but I have a feeling he's going to see more than 6 games from the NFL and face punishment by the courts.

 
I can't remember where I read it but Peterson's court date is October 2nd. My guess is Asiata will be starting until at least then, and pending the outcome after. 15 rushes for 60 yards, 3rec-25 yards, 0.5 td's (1 every other game average rushing and recieving combined) a game would be my guess.

 
montana_grizzly_bears said:
I can't remember where I read it but Peterson's court date is October 2nd. My guess is Asiata will be starting until at least then, and pending the outcome after. 15 rushes for 60 yards, 3rec-25 yards, 0.5 td's (1 every other game average rushing and recieving combined) a game would be my guess.
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I think the only chance of him playing again this year is if he comes to a settlement and pleads guilty to a lesser charge. According to the Vikings, he's suspended until this whole thing plays out. If he pleads guilty in court then he's in jail. If he fights it, which of course he would do, this is going to take a long time to play out. His only chance of playing is basically by striking a deal.

 
93_Confirmed said:
Minnesota has a solid offense - especially once Bridgewater takes over, which really should be sooner than later. I think Asiata has a high floor so I'm expecting something like 65 rush yards / 3 catches / 25 rec yards / 1TD per game. Roughly18 points a game in PPR.
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I think that's a little too high of an expectation for him on average, but I definitely think he can have games like that....just like he did this past week.

For people with some short-term injuries and early bye weeks coming up, I think he can be a good fill-in player for the next few weeks. This could very well change after a few weeks if the Vikings get McKinnon in there to see what he can do.

One thing that should work in his favor is that he has been pretty good at picking up the goal-line TDs (he had three within 5-yd line last year in one game) and he is bigger than McKinnon, so even if McKinnon start getting more carries, Asiata may very well come in for redzone plays....and he can pass block well.

 
One thing to note is that it was Thursday or Friday last week on which Peterson was inactivated for the week giving the Vikings very little time to change their gameplan to accommodate Asiata.

Maybe, with more time to properly gameplan to his strengths/weaknesses, he'll be better suited to do well?

 
I think people are very low on Asiata. Yes, he is no Peterson, but he showed last week he could handle a heavy workload and make things count. He played very well for a game where Cassel threw 4 picks. Imagine how much work was left out.

I think Patterson will be the player most defenses will scheme for now, which may leave Asiata as the black sheep that could be serviceable.

 
Career 3.6y/c and 5.7 y/r -- his TD last week was the result of a busted coverage.

So he's strictly a volume/vulture play and you're relying on a) Peterson not returning, b) Asiata not being overtaken by McKinnon straight up, and c) the Vikings staying competitive enough all year that they don't decide to look ahead and play Bridgewater and McKinnon even if they think they aren't really starter quality yet.

IMO that puts Week 9 [SIZE=14.2857141494751px]-- the last before the bye week -- [/SIZE]as a likely cap on Asiata. But he's close to guaranteed some volume for the next couple weeks.

So in PPR leagues he's a low end RB2 for the next, say, ~3-7 weeks.

Some value, but probably not as much as he has in trade value today. Would look to move him if you have other options.

 
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I assume it's only a matter of time before Bridgewater is starting - at that point, I see no way they have McKinnon in there helping protect their future franchise. McKinnon was a QB running the option 9 months ago, he's not prepared yet to pass protect like is needed.

I see no reason Asiata is not the play for this year.

 
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wdcrob said:
Career 3.6y/c and 5.7 y/r -- his TD last week was the result of a busted coverage.

So he's strictly a volume play and you're relying on a) Peterson not returning, b) Asiata not being overtaken by McKinnon straight up, and c) the Vikings staying competitive enough all year that they don't decide to look ahead and play Bridgewater and McKinnon even if they think they aren't really starter quality yet.

IMO that puts Week 9 [SIZE=14.28px]-- the last before the bye week -- [/SIZE]as a likely cap on Asiata. But he's close to guaranteed some volume for the next couple weeks.

So in PPR leagues he's a low end RB2 for the next, say, ~3-7 weeks.

Some value, but probably not as much as he has in trade value today. Would look to move him if you have other options.
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That's a very fair analysis and I think most people would agree.

On a side note, that quote in your sig is awesome!

 
93_Confirmed said:
MattFancy said:
Trying to decide between Asiata and Donald Brown
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I think you have to go Asiata. Donald will get carries but Woodhead is the PPR play and Mathews will be back. Asiata only has McKinnon to hold off and will be in for a very large majority of snaps.
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But how long are we expecting AP to be out for? I know they said until his case is resolved, but that could be like in like 3 weeks. Think his court date is Oct 9th.

 
MattFancy said:
93_Confirmed said:
MattFancy said:
Trying to decide between Asiata and Donald Brown
Click to expand...
I think you have to go Asiata. Donald will get carries but Woodhead is the PPR play and Mathews will be back. Asiata only has McKinnon to hold off and will be in for a very large majority of snaps.
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But how long are we expecting AP to be out for? I know they said until his case is resolved, but that could be like in like 3 weeks. Think his court date is Oct 9th.
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No one knows for sure but when comparing against Donald Brown it's a similar situation. Assume that AP and Mathews are out for the same length of time, which back will have better production?

RBM said:
93_Confirmed said:
MattFancy said:
Trying to decide between Asiata and Donald Brown
Click to expand...
I think you have to go Asiata. Donald will get carries but Woodhead is the PPR play and Mathews will be back. Asiata only has McKinnon to hold off and will be in for a very large majority of snaps.
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But he's terrible. That has to account for something no?
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He's not exciting and has a weak YPC but it's all about volume and opportunity. He can pass block very well and has good hands so he'll be a three down back for as long as AP is out. McKinnon is and will be merely a change of pace RB for the foreseeable future.

 
That tweet was in response to this:

Jason Wood ‏@fbgwood 3h

“@SigmundBloom: name to file away if Asiata gets hurt RT @MikeJordan1 don't sleep on Joe Banyard.” -- McKinnon is the play here

further response to Bloom

Matt Vdm ‏@MVdMerlen 3h

@SigmundBloom @fbgwood strange that he won #3 RB job then (in reference to McKinnon)

Bloom's takes are usually good and I listen to his podcasts, but I don't think anybody knows for sure. Why wouldn't you let a freakish guy like McKinnon have a shot? It's not like they are trying to protect a run to the super bowl with a Band-Aid like Asiata where all they need from the position is great pass protection to get them there. We are talking about an offense that highlights the RB position where it makes sense to have an athletic RB. I can't say for sure but have both on my roster to see how this shakes out. I think both have a legit shot over the next month depending on how management decides to go. I can see the coaches going with the more conservative path Asiata, or going for more risk/reward McKinnon.

 
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there is always one RB that comes out of nowhere to be a difference maker, starter on a team. Asiata could be that guy. i see low rb2 for this guy.

i wish i owned him.

 
mnmplayer said:
Bloom's takes are usually good and I listen to his podcasts, but I don't think anybody knows for sure. Why wouldn't you let a freakish guy like McKinnon have a shot?
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This word is getting old, like the second coming of 'BEAST'. :wall:

(Not aimed at you, mnmplayer. Everyone says it when referencing McKinnon)

 
mnmplayer said:
Why wouldn't you let a freakish guy like McKinnon have a shot? It's not like they are trying to protect a run to the super bowl with a Band-Aid like Asiata where all they need from the position is great pass protection to get them there. We are talking about an offense that highlights the RB position where it makes sense to have an athletic RB.
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Why did Norv play McGahee over Rainey? Why did he play Tolbert/ Battle/ Brown over Mathews?

 
mnmplayer said:
Why wouldn't you let a freakish guy like McKinnon have a shot? It's not like they are trying to protect a run to the super bowl with a Band-Aid like Asiata where all they need from the position is great pass protection to get them there. We are talking about an offense that highlights the RB position where it makes sense to have an athletic RB. I can't say for sure but have both on my roster to see how this shakes out. I think both have a legit shot over the next month depending on how management decides to go. I can see the coaches going with the more conservative path Asiata, or going for more risk/reward McKinnon.
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Let's not forget that it's week 2 and, at 1-1, the Vikings are tied for first in their division. They haven't thrown in the towel on this season and won't any time soon. They're going to do everything they can to win and right now that includes Asiata. My guess is that they value pass protection pretty damn highly now that they're probably going to be passing a lot.

 
McKinnon is the strongest RB in the draft on the bench press, stronger than a lot of the guys bigger than him and runs a sub 4.4 40 time.

http://www.vikings.com/media-vault/videos/Jerick-McKinnons-Combine-40-Yard-Dash/4c8505bf-f8a6-4146-b881-2235b610e487

I don't want to get into a BMI debate, but 208 at 5'8 is prototypically proportioned perfectly in the MJD/LT/Rice mold. These types have potential to be elite ball carriers and what I look for personally. SO yeah I think freak is an appropriate term used in his case. Also they spent a pretty high pick on the guy as RAW as he is. Another benefit is if he takes over, he has near zero mileage on his body since he didnt carry the load in college. He has just a JAG in front of him. I'd prefer his situation over Crowell or CJ Anderson just because of who is in front of both of those guys. Asiata is not a guy that can hold this position for more than a year, and maybe less time than that. I am placing a bet on both, but the potential is there for an incredible FA acquisition.

Asiata is going to hold this position for 2-14 games. The chances are slim he will be the starter in 2015 so if/when Minn is out of the hunt will they want to see what they have in him to prepare for next season? Won't they wan to know what they have going into the draft?

 
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In ppr he's a weekly starter. He will get a ton of dump offs from Cassel. He's not gonna outrun anyone but he should get enough touches to get consistent points. And He will get the goal line work.

 
Ruh-roh.

"Vikings OC Norv Turner said he will use both Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon in Sunday's game against the Saints."

 
I've got Asiata and let's just say... he is the Fasano of RBs.

Not pretty, but I think he will get a lot of checkdowns from Cassell and seems much more fundamentally sound in all aspects of the game compared to McKinnon. Likely winds up being like a Spiller/FJax kinda thing.

 
So what kind of production are we expecting from Asiata this week?

The FBG current ranking is pretty high on him but I can't bring myself to enter him in my lineups at that spot.

What kind of players do you guys intend to start/sit him for?

 
Leonidas said:
So what kind of production are we expecting from Asiata this week?

The FBG current ranking is pretty high on him but I can't bring myself to enter him in my lineups at that spot.

What kind of players do you guys intend to start/sit him for?
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Ignore the Asiata supporters/haters. Truth is we don't know a lot about him yet so he's a bit of a wild card. Honestly expect 60-70 yards rushing, 4-5 catches for another 25 yards, and a 50/50 chance of a TD. That's a typical RB2.

 
I don't think his value will get any higher than now. I just used him to get a trade done. Roddy/Asiata for Jennings/Hunter

 
chinawildman said:
Blick said:
I don't think his value will get any higher than now. I just used him to get a trade done. Roddy/Asiata for Jennings/Hunter
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I somewhat tend to agree with this as an Asiata owner.
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What we saw from Asiata last week is his ceiling save a multi TD game which is possible. No denying that his ceiling is RB2 based off of volume. I think his floor is being a bit underestimated in PPR though. Over the next month MIN faces NO, ATL, GB and DET, all very potent offenses. I can see Asiata catch ~4 balls a game by default, which should buoy his floor even if he does start to lose 1st and 2nd down work. Your comparison to FJax was apt.

 
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Leonidas said:
So what kind of production are we expecting from Asiata this week?

The FBG current ranking is pretty high on him but I can't bring myself to enter him in my lineups at that spot.

What kind of players do you guys intend to start/sit him for?
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I'm starting him over F-Jax and possibly Lacy (@DET).

 
Leonidas said:
So what kind of production are we expecting from Asiata this week?

The FBG current ranking is pretty high on him but I can't bring myself to enter him in my lineups at that spot.

What kind of players do you guys intend to start/sit him for?
Click to expand...
I think last week's numbers are attainable again. Even if he doesn't get a TD you're looking at RB2 potential in PPR due to the receiving potential. It stands to reason the Vikings will be playing from behind again so Asiata could easily catch 4-5 passes. The Saints' run defense hasn't been very good so more rushing yardage is possible as well.

I think 45-50 yards rushing, 4-5 receptions for 25-30 yards is very realistic. In PPR that's 11-13 points which I'll happily take from my RB3. If he scores again all the better.

 
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