ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (5 Viewers)

Watkins seems very similar to what Patterson could develop into right now. I do not know if they will let him compete for kick returns, but he should do better than Patterson as a receiver right away.

Cooks offers similar skill set with a better QB than either of them. They need a replacement for Sproles in return game, so he has that potential to be a triple threat WR like Patterson as well.

Evan's is a different kind of WR but he may see a career arc similar to what we have seen with Floyd. Maybe a bit better.

I dunno I feel like most of the WR from 2014 are better than the WR prospects from 2013. For example I am not sure Hunter is that much better as a prospect than Martavis Bryant from this season and I have Bryant ranked 12th out of the 2014 WR. So while I had Patterson/Austin at the top of the 2013 group I can see many of the 2014 WR being ahead of them.

I do think there is reason to be optimistic about Patterson due to Norv + Bridgewater + year of experience. At the same time it would not surprise me if Jennings gets significantly more targets than Patterson in 2014 as Patterson may still need more seasoning before he reaches his full potential.

jurb26 said:

Adam Harstad said:

jurb26 said:

Adam Harstad said:

I wasn't meaning to compare NCAA and NFL production. I meant to suggest that if Patterson was "Wholly Unproven" coming into last year, then he's still "Nearly Wholly Unproven" right now. 45 catches, a limited route tree, and crappy rate stats do not take a guy from "complete unknown" to "known". They take him from "complete unknown" to "near-complete unknown". And "near-complete unknown" is a greater unknown than a guy like Watkins, who thanks to a huge amount of college film is merely "pretty unknown".

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I think you're exaggerating the amount of "unknown" with Patterson here. Sure he is not a known commodity at this point but to say Watkins is more known just doesn't make sense to me, at all. Watkins hasn't touched a NFL field yet. He hasn't had to deal with NFL CBs and defenses. He, like any rookie, is a complete unknown like Patterson was last year. The fact that Watkins had a ton of footage to go on in college while Patterson had little impacted their draft position. It doesn't mean much of anything about how their careers will transpire. If there are specific aspects of his game that you feel make him better than Patterson, right now and today, then fine. That's not the argument being presented though. The argument is what they have shown as NFL WRs. Using this argument to push Patterson down and not do the same for Watkins and Evans is again, illogical. Maybe you feel Watkins is simply a batter player than Patterson. Fine I'd get it. What are the reasons? Using these stats, that aren't really making the point IMO, doesn't help the discussion at all. Your saying because Watkins had great success in college his unknown value is lesser than Patterson who had a ho hum rookie season. By this measure, you should also be ranking Austin ahead of Patterson. Austin had significantly more footage than Patterson, was drafted higher and by all your measures also had a ho hum rookie season. Yet, we know that isn't the case.

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So you're saying that all rookies are equally unknown? The fact that Sammy Watkins played (and dominated) for three seasons (starting as young as age 18), the fact that he's the third freshman in history to be first-team All American, the fact that he finished his college career with 240 receptions and 36 games played, means he's every bit as unknown as a guy with 46 career college receptions, just because that second guy added 45 more receptions (at an extremely inefficient rate and on an extremely limited route tree) in the pros?

As for the bolded, I would be surprised if we knew any such thing, seeing as Tavon Austin is my WR18 and Cordarrelle Patterson is my WR20...

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I'm saying all rookies are more unknown than players who we have seen in the NFL. Yes, to a point every rookie is unknown and all have potential to bust. Given what we now know about Patterson it's pretty safe to say he is not a bust and never will be. He's removed most of that doubt. That doesn't mean he will transform into a dominant WR1 for years. It means he can play and contribute though and that is something no rookie has proven yet, no matter how much you liked them and how highly they were drafted. Seeing as you are comfortable comparing Watkins college stats to Patterson in the NFL it would only seem fair then to compare Patterson in JUCO vs. Watkins as well, right? The competition gap is probably less than D1 to NFL after all. Ignoring Patterson there is odd in this scenario. He too dominated 3 years in college, just not all 3 being at Tenn. You are using a very selective reasoning to swing things in favor of Watkins. You are giving Patterson no credit at all for a body of work in the NFL and then also giving him no credit for 2 of his season in college. Yet Watkins gets elevated for his 3 years in college? Patterson had 159 reception, 2610 yds, 29 TDs receiving, 61 rushes 706 yds, 9 TDs. What about the fact that Patterson broke the SEC record for all purpose yds in his one and only season there? Patterson, like Watkins, dominated 3 years in college. Patterson unlike Watkins has played a season in the NFL and also produced there.It seems you like Watkins more and are trying to create stats to support it. If you like Watkins more fine. I'm ok with that. What do you think he does so much better? Using college stats to support him vs. a player with real NFL work under his belt is a very poor argument. What does he do that will translate so much better to the NFL over a guy we've seen translate his game to the NFL. We keep coming back to the same sticking point here and I can't seem to get a straight answer on it. The issue being downgrading Patterson for needing development and not showing enough as a NFL WR, yet not downgrading rookies who have shown nothing in the NFL for the same reason.

As for what Patterson has shown to instill confidence? Well the first and most critical thing he showed is that his athletic ability translates to the NFL and still allows him to dominate. You say this doesn't move the needle at all because he was known to be an athletic freak prior. Seems you say this same thing about any bit of evidence presented so I'm not really sure you can or want to see it differently. None the less, yes we knew Patterson was an athletic freak but seeing it translate live and confirming it does in fact make a huge difference. We've seen lots of other athletic freaks fail and not translate; Jon Baldwin, Jericho Cotchery, Stephen Hill, ect. I also saw a guy who improved his route running and his route tree last year. Specifically on square in routes and comeback routes. Is he fully there yet? No, but there was development. Another thing he showed was an ability to fight for the ball in space. Many questioned his hands predraft and I think he showed his hands to be much better than many anticipated. He made some tough, contested catches and plucked the ball well on several occasions as well. Probably the most critical thing he showed of all was an ability to win the confidence of his coaches by learning the play book and adapting to the NFL quickly. As someone else mentioned, Patterson was expected to basically be a redshirt last year who contributed almost exclusively as a returner and some gadget plays on offense. That happened early on but his involvement in the offense increased as the season went on and that has continued this offseason under new leadership. He's displayed a willingness to learn and work at the craft and in the end that is what makes the most impact.

Like I said at the beginning of this discussion, I agree that Patterson being ranked as a WR1 right now is a touch high. I have no problem with the notion that he's a bit overrated at his current price and I said exactly that early on. The issue is justifying rookies like Watkins and Evans as WR1 type guys right now. Especially when we are told that the reason Patterson isn't a WR1 just yet all apply to the rookies. I'm sorry, but using metrics that apply only the the guy who has played in the NFL to support this argument just don't make any sense. Especially seeing that Patterson actually scored well in those metrics compared to other rookies.

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You seem to be trying to paint Adam into a corner and in the process painting yourself into one.

I like Patterson (a lot, sounds like more than you do), but I can certainly understand those that need to see more before they fall in line (while at the same time NOT needing to see more from Watkins or Evans). I don’t think their opinion that Patterson is unproven and knocking him down for being “unknown” has to mean ANYTHING relative to their opinion of Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans. If that were the case, then no one could knock down Justin Hunter or Tavon Austin for being unproven (like many do) while simultaneously ranking Watkins or Evans high. For me, Watkins and Evans SHOULD be ranked high, and yet Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin need to show me more before they get ranked higher. Many include Patterson with Hunter and Austin as well. I don’t see anything illogical about that.

In fantasy football, whats good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander. Just because you rank Alshon Jeffery higher specifically because of his height/speed combination, does not mean it is illogical not to rank Jonathan Baldwin higher as well. There are too many other factors involved to try to create the bright line test that you seem to be trying to make with Patterson and Watkins/Evans.

Ernol said:

You seem to be trying to paint Adam into a corner and in the process painting yourself into one.

I like Patterson (a lot, sounds like more than you do), but I can certainly understand those that need to see more before they fall in line (while at the same time NOT needing to see more from Watkins or Evans). I don’t think their opinion that Patterson is unproven and knocking him down for being “unknown” has to mean ANYTHING relative to their opinion of Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans. If that were the case, then no one could knock down Justin Hunter or Tavon Austin for being unproven (like many do) while simultaneously ranking Watkins or Evans high. For me, Watkins and Evans SHOULD be ranked high, and yet Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin need to show me more before they get ranked higher. Many include Patterson with Hunter and Austin as well. I don’t see anything illogical about that.

In fantasy football, whats good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander. Just because you rank Alshon Jeffery higher specifically because of his height/speed combination, does not mean it is illogical not to rank Jonathan Baldwin higher as well. There are too many other factors involved to try to create the bright line test that you seem to be trying to make with Patterson and Watkins/Evans.

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I don't disagree with what you're saying. I'm simply asking for the reasons someone may like Watkins or any other rookie more. The unproven stance just doesn't hold up. Neither do the metrics that have been provided. Like I said, those metrics can only be applied to Patterson and they are actually pretty good as far as rookie WRs go. What about Watkins game makes him the better and more valuable player right now? Saying he was dominant in college for 3 years is rather meaningless. So were thousands of other players who never worked out in the NFL. Patterson himself was dominant in college for 3 years. This is a really strange argument for me seeing that I actually love Watkins as well.

jurb26 said:

I'm saying all rookies are more unknown than players who we have seen in the NFL. Yes, to a point every rookie is unknown and all have potential to bust. Given what we now know about Patterson it's pretty safe to say he is not a bust and never will be. He's removed most of that doubt. That doesn't mean he will transform into a dominant WR1 for years. It means he can play and contribute though and that is something no rookie has proven yet, no matter how much you liked them and how highly they were drafted. Seeing as you are comfortable comparing Watkins college stats to Patterson in the NFL it would only seem fair then to compare Patterson in JUCO vs. Watkins as well, right? The competition gap is probably less than D1 to NFL after all. Ignoring Patterson there is odd in this scenario. He too dominated 3 years in college, just not all 3 being at Tenn. You are using a very selective reasoning to swing things in favor of Watkins. You are giving Patterson no credit at all for a body of work in the NFL and then also giving him no credit for 2 of his season in college. Yet Watkins gets elevated for his 3 years in college? Patterson had 159 reception, 2610 yds, 29 TDs receiving, 61 rushes 706 yds, 9 TDs. What about the fact that Patterson broke the SEC record for all purpose yds in his one and only season there? Patterson, like Watkins, dominated 3 years in college. Patterson unlike Watkins has played a season in the NFL and also produced there.

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Huh? I'm giving Patterson no credit for his NFL body of work? Since when? I've consistently given Patterson all the credit he deserves for his NFL body of work. I just don't think he deserves very much credit at all for failing to even crack the field for the first half of the season, catching 45 passes, running 3 routes, and being one of the worst receivers in the league on a per-play basis. Great, so Patterson has shown he's capable of being a crappy receiver who makes a couple of highlight-reel plays. This has caused me to adjust my opinion of him approximately not at all. I always knew he was capable of being a crappy receiver who could make some highlight reel plays. As soon as he shows me he can be more than that, he becomes less of an unknown.

"All Purpose Yardage" is a nonsense statistic that treats special teams yardage as somehow comparable to offensive yardage. Darren Sproles set the NFL all-purpose yardage record in 2011. You know who else ranks in the top 10 all-time? Michael Lewis, Lionel James, Josh Cribbs, Brian Mitchell, Dante Hall, and Mack Herron. It's a nonsense statistic with no fantasy value whatsoever. It indicates that Patterson is probably a pretty damn elite returner, but I've never argued that point- Patterson is a baller returner, and he probably will be for his entire career. In return yardage leagues, you have to have him much, much higher. But as an NFL player? If Cordarrelle Patterson becomes the next Josh Cribbs, or the next Dante Hall, are you going to be happy with that? How about the next Mack Herron? How about Timmy Brown (not Tim Brown), the guy who holds the "All Purpose Yards Per Game" record?

jurb26 said:

It seems you like Watkins more and are trying to create stats to support it. If you like Watkins more fine. I'm ok with that. What do you think he does so much better? Using college stats to support him vs. a player with real NFL work under his belt is a very poor argument. What does he do that will translate so much better to the NFL over a guy we've seen translate his game to the NFL. We keep coming back to the same sticking point here and I can't seem to get a straight answer on it. The issue being downgrading Patterson for needing development and not showing enough as a NFL WR, yet not downgrading rookies who have shown nothing in the NFL for the same reason.

As for what Patterson has shown to instill confidence? Well the first and most critical thing he showed is that his athletic ability translates to the NFL and still allows him to dominate. You say this doesn't move the needle at all because he was known to be an athletic freak prior. Seems you say this same thing about any bit of evidence presented so I'm not really sure you can or want to see it differently. None the less, yes we knew Patterson was an athletic freak but seeing it translate live and confirming it does in fact make a huge difference. We've seen lots of other athletic freaks fail and not translate; Jon Baldwin, Jericho Cotchery, Stephen Hill, ect. I also saw a guy who improved his route running and his route tree last year. Specifically on square in routes and comeback routes. Is he fully there yet? No, but there was development. Another thing he showed was an ability to fight for the ball in space. Many questioned his hands predraft and I think he showed his hands to be much better than many anticipated. He made some tough, contested catches and plucked the ball well on several occasions as well. Probably the most critical thing he showed of all was an ability to win the confidence of his coaches by learning the play book and adapting to the NFL quickly. As someone else mentioned, Patterson was expected to basically be a redshirt last year who contributed almost exclusively as a returner and some gadget plays on offense. That happened early on but his involvement in the offense increased as the season went on and that has continued this offseason under new leadership. He's displayed a willingness to learn and work at the craft and in the end that is what makes the most impact.

Like I said at the beginning of this discussion, I agree that Patterson being ranked as a WR1 right now is a touch high. I have no problem with the notion that he's a bit overrated at his current price and I said exactly that early on. The issue is justifying rookies like Watkins and Evans as WR1 type guys right now. Especially when we are told that the reason Patterson isn't a WR1 just yet all apply to the rookies. I'm sorry, but using metrics that apply only the the guy who has played in the NFL to support this argument just don't make any sense. Especially seeing that Patterson actually scored well in those metrics compared to other rookies.

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How have we seen that Patterson can translate his game to the NFL? Is Patterson's game being an elite returner and a crappy receiver? Is Patterson's game getting 600 receiving yards a year? Is Patterson's game averaging 6 yards per target? If that's Patterson's game, I want nothing of it.

Patterson made a half-dozen jaw-dropping plays. This does not count as "proving it" at the NFL level.

And again, Sammy Watkins was drafted 4th overall (by a team that reportedly tried to trade up and draft him 1st overall). Cordarrelle Patterson was drafted at the tail end of the 1st round. Let me put it to you this way- do you think there's a team in the league that would have traded the 1.01 rookie pick for Cordarrelle Patterson? Do you think there's a team in the league that would have traded a top-5 rookie pick for Patterson? Because there are a LOT of teams that would have traded top-5 rookie picks for Watkins. Because most teams in the league think the "unproven" Watkins is a much better WR prospect than the "super-proven" Patterson.

jurb26 said:

Ernol said:

You seem to be trying to paint Adam into a corner and in the process painting yourself into one.

I like Patterson (a lot, sounds like more than you do), but I can certainly understand those that need to see more before they fall in line (while at the same time NOT needing to see more from Watkins or Evans). I don’t think their opinion that Patterson is unproven and knocking him down for being “unknown” has to mean ANYTHING relative to their opinion of Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans. If that were the case, then no one could knock down Justin Hunter or Tavon Austin for being unproven (like many do) while simultaneously ranking Watkins or Evans high. For me, Watkins and Evans SHOULD be ranked high, and yet Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin need to show me more before they get ranked higher. Many include Patterson with Hunter and Austin as well. I don’t see anything illogical about that.

In fantasy football, whats good for the goose is not necessarily good for the gander. Just because you rank Alshon Jeffery higher specifically because of his height/speed combination, does not mean it is illogical not to rank Jonathan Baldwin higher as well. There are too many other factors involved to try to create the bright line test that you seem to be trying to make with Patterson and Watkins/Evans.

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I don't disagree with what you're saying. I'm simply asking for the reasons someone may like Watkins or any other rookie more. The unproven stance just doesn't hold up. Neither do the metrics that have been provided. Like I said, those metrics can only be applied to Patterson and they are actually pretty good as far as rookie WRs go. What about Watkins game makes him the better and more valuable player right now? Saying he was dominant in college for 3 years is rather meaningless. So were thousands of other players who never worked out in the NFL. Patterson himself was dominant in college for 3 years. This is a really strange argument for me seeing that I actually love Watkins as well.

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Patterson's stats were good as far as rookie WRs go? Over the last decade, the following WRs have topped 40 receptions and posted a higher DVOA* than Patterson: Keenan Allen, Marlon Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams, Robert Woods, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens, Josh Gordon, T.Y. Hilton, Doug Baldwin, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Torrey Smith, Titus Young, Dez Bryant, Jordan Shipley, Mike Williams, Kenny Britt, Austin Collie, Percy Harvin, Johnny Knox, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Thomas, Davone Bess, Eddie Royal, Desean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, James Jones, Marques Colston, Santonio Holmes, Reggie Brown, Michael Clayton, Keary Colbert, Roy Williams. That's 36 out of 48 such WRs, or 75%. Granted, Patterson had massive rushing value, and "DVOA as a rookie" is rubbish as a predictive stat (notice that Larry Fitzgerald's name doesn't make that list, for instance). But, for descriptive purposes, it strongly suggests that "Ho-hum" or "unspecial" are very apt descriptions of Patterson's year, even relative to most rookie WRs. Volume stats paint a similar picture- an average of 4 rookies a year have caught more balls than Patterson did last year. 36 rookie receivers have posted more offensive yardage than Patterson over the last decade. His fantasy points were strong, mostly because his TD production was strong (tied for 12th over the last decade), but TDs are such a volatile and unreliable stat. Mike Williams and Lee Evans lead all rookie WRs over the last decade in offensive TDs. Marlon Brown tied Cordarrelle Patterson for the rookie lead last year. While we're at it, Marlon Brown had more receptions, a higher yards per target (with a QB that averaged FEWER yards per attempt than the Minnesota duo), and a much higher DVOA than Cordarrelle Patterson. How come you aren't here banging the drum about how "proven" Marlon Brown is?

All of the Cordarrelle Patterson hype- all of it- essentially boils down to maybe 5 or 6 plays. They were awesome plays, for sure. Eye-popping, even. They do not, however, constitute an entire "body of work". And, like I keep saying, Justin Hunter and Tavon Austin both had an equal number of eye-popping, 95th-percentile plays. And I consider both of those WRs to be "unproven" still, too. A bare handful of great plays does not "prove" that you're an NFL-caliber receiver.

*As I mentioned, I'm not a huge fan of DVOA for receivers, but it's the easiest rate stat for me to look up quickly. I suspect that the yards per target and yards per routes run lists would be largely similar.

Adam Harstad said:

And again, Sammy Watkins was drafted 4th overall (by a team that reportedly tried to trade up and draft him 1st overall). Cordarrelle Patterson was drafted at the tail end of the 1st round. Let me put it to you this way- do you think there's a team in the league that would have traded the 1.01 rookie pick for Cordarrelle Patterson? Do you think there's a team in the league that would have traded a top-5 rookie pick for Patterson? Because there are a LOT of teams that would have traded top-5 rookie picks for Watkins. Because most teams in the league think the "unproven" Watkins is a much better WR prospect than the "super-proven" Patterson.

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I actually thought that this was an interesting thought experiment, so I made a poll about it to see how everyone else felt.

According to this article Pattersons aDOT was 8.5 http://www.xnsports.com/2014/02/11/cordarrelle-pattersons-fantasy-football-comps/

Turner’s primary wide receivers since 2008 have an average aDOT of 16.2, a mark that would consistently rank among the highest aDOTs in any given season. Probably you noticed that that inflated average is nearly double Patterson’s rookie season aDOT — not exactly the hopeful sign we sought.

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So this is what none of us have seen from Patterson yet. Is if he can be an effective deep threat as well as a great RAC WR.

Adam, all this time and you have still not once answered the question I posed. A simple question at that. I'll just let it die as this is going no where.

jurb26 said:

Adam, all this time and you have still not once answered the question I posed. A simple question at that. I'll just let it die as this is going no where.

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Which question?

Just punted RB in my ffpc dynasty draft.

jurb26 said:

I don't disagree with what you're saying. I'm simply asking for the reasons someone may like Watkins or any other rookie more.

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Watkins and Evans are better WRs today. They both have more polish and more traditional skill-sets. They are both safer prospects, despite not having an NFL snap.

Patterson has a ways to go before being an steady NFL WR2. When Percy Harvin was the comp and likely role--maybe that's not damning. But if he's being asked to preform in a more tradtional role--which appears to be the case--that's a risky proposition.

My opinions only, of course

Pumpnick said:

Just punted RB in my ffpc dynasty draft.

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Does this mean you drafted all RB? Sorry for the potentially stupid question.

Braktastic said:

Pumpnick said:

Just punted RB in my ffpc dynasty draft.

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Does this mean you drafted all RB? Sorry for the potentially stupid question.

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didnt draft any early

Updated rankings before the season starts. Assuming no ppr, start 1Q/2R/3W/1T, about 250 position players rostered.

Things are in flux and I haven't doublechecked everything, so a few guys may be out of place (especially in the last tier at RB & WR).

Previous rankings are from May: RB, WR, QB, TE.

RUNNING BACK

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 LeSean McCoy PHI 26.2 (1)
2 2 Jamaal Charles KC 27.7 (2)
2 3 Eddie Lacy GB 24.3 (3)
3 4 Doug Martin TB 25.6 (4)
3 5 Giovani Bernard CIN 22.8 (5)
3 6 DeMarco Murray DAL 26.5 (6)
3 7 Montee Ball DEN 23.8 (10)
3 8 LeVeon Bell PIT 22.6 (7)
3 9 Adrian Peterson MIN 29.4 (9)
3 10 Matt Forte CHI 28.7 (11)
3 11 C.J. Spiller BUF 27.1 (8)
4 12 Alfred Morris WAS 25.7 (13)
4 13 Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.4 (12)
4 14 Christine Michael SEA 23.8 (14)
4 15 Carlos Hyde SF 23.0 (15)
4 16 Ryan Mathews SD 26.9 (16)
5 17 Andre Ellington ARI 25.6 (24)
5 18 Trent Richardson IND 24.2 (17)
5 19 Zac Stacy STL 23.4 (25)
5 20 Bishop Sankey TEN 22.0 (18)
5 21 Arian Foster HOU 28.0 (22)
5 22 Shane Vereen NE 25.5 (19)
5 23 Toby Gerhart JAX 27.4 (28)
6 24 Ben Tate CLE 26.0 (20)
6 25 Reggie Bush DET 29.5 (27)
6 26 Ray Rice BAL 27.6 (23)
6 27 Rashad Jennings NYG 29.5 (33)
6 28 Jeremy Hill CIN 21.9 (30)
6 29 Tre Mason STL 21.1 (26)
7 30 Mark Ingram NO 24.7 (37)
7 31 Joique Bell DET 28.1 (48)
7 32 Chris Johnson NYJ 28.9 (32)
7 33 Stevan Ridley NE 25.6 (29)
7 34 Bernard Pierce BAL 24.7 (36)
7 35 Devonta Freeman ATL 22.5 (35)
7 36 Jerick McKinnon MIN 22.3 (34)
7 37 Pierre Thomas NO 29.7 (45)
7 38 Lamar Miller MIA 23.4 (44)
7 39 Knowshon Moreno MIA 27.1 (31)
7 40 Darren McFadden OAK 27.0 (41)
7 41 Charles Sims TB 24.0 (39)
7 42 Terrance West CLE 23.6 (50)
7 43 Jonathan Stewart CAR 27.4 (42)
7 44 Frank Gore SF 31.3 (43)
7 45 Steven Jackson ATL 31.1 (46)
7 46 Andre Williams NYG 22.0 (49)
7 47 Marcus Lattimore SF 22.9 (38)
8 48 Bryce Brown BUF 23.3 (52)
8 49 Chris Ivory NYJ 26.4 (40)
8 50 Darren Sproles PHI 31.2 (47)
8 51 Maurice Jones-Drew OAK 29.4 (53)
8 52 Knile Davis KC 22.9 (57)
8 53 Lance Dunbar DAL 24.6 (64)
8 54 Fred Jackson BUF 33.5 (65)
8 55 DeAngelo Williams CAR 31.4 (55)
8 56 Danny Woodhead SD 29.7 (51)
8 57 Dri Archer PIT 23.1 (56)
8 58 Khiry Robinson NO 24.7 (60)
8 59 C.J. Anderson DEN 23.6 (59)
8 60 Ronnie Hillman DEN 23.0 (100)
8 61 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28.5 (61)
8 62 Benny Cunningham STL 24.2 (97)
9 63 Denard Robinson JAX 24.0 (54)
9 64 LeGarrette Blount PIT 27.7 (70)
9 65 Donald Brown SD 27.4 (66)
9 66 Shonn Greene TEN 29.0 (67)
9 67 Latavius Murray OAK 23.5 (73)
9 68 James White NE 22.6 (76)
9 69 Isaiah Crowell CLE 21.7 (62)
9 70 Chris Polk PHI 24.7 (83)
10 71 Robert Turbin SEA 24.7 (79)
10 72 Jonathan Grimes HOU 24.7 unr
10 73 De'Anthony Thomas KC 21.7 (74)
10 74 Roy Helu WAS 25.7 (69)
10 75 James Starks GB 28.5 (77)
10 76 Jonathan Dwyer ARI 25.1 (87)
10 77 Alfred Blue HOU 23.4 (89)
10 78 Dexter McCluster TEN 26.0 unr
10 79 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 22.7 (81)
10 80 Ka'Deem Carey CHI 21.9 (75)
10 81 Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 24.6 (78)
10 82 Mike James TB 23.4 (106)
10 83 LaMichael James SF 24.9 (107)
10 84 Bobby Rainey TB 26.9 (105)
10 85 Joseph Randle DAL 22.7 (111)
10 86 Juwan Thompson DEN unr
10 87 Stepfan Taylor ARI 23.2 (88)
10 88 Silas Redd WAS 22.5 unr
10 89 Brandon Bolden NE 24.6 (93)
10 90 Travaris Cadet NO 25.6 (80)
10 91 Lache Seastrunk FA 23.1 (58)
10 92 Henry Josey FA 23.0 (85)
10 93 Brandon Oliver SD 23.3 unr
10 94 Jordan Todman JAX 24.5 (112)
10 95 Shaun Draughn CHI 26.8 unr
10 96 Darrin Reaves CAR 21.4 unr
10 97 Storm Johnson JAX 22.1 (82)
10 98 Dan Herron IND 25.5 unr
10 99 Kendall Hunter SF 25.0 (68)
10 100 Stephen Houston PIT 22.9 (84)
10 101 Vick Ballard IND 24.1 (72)
10 102 Bilal Powell NYJ 25.8 (92)
10 103 Kenjon Barner PHI 25.4 (120)
10 104 Mikel Leshoure FA 24.4 (86)
10 105 Isaiah Pead STL 24.7 (108)

WIDE RECEIVER

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Calvin Johnson DET 28.9 (1)
2 2 A.J. Green CIN 26.1 (2)
3 3 Demaryius Thomas DEN 26.7 (3)
3 4 Dez Bryant DAL 25.8 (4)
4 5 Julio Jones ATL 25.6 (5)
4 6 Alshon Jeffery CHI 24.5 (6)
5 7 Brandon Marshall CHI 30.4 (9)
5 8 Jordy Nelson GB 29.3 (10)
5 9 Percy Harvin SEA 26.3 (8)
6 10 Antonio Brown PIT 26.1 (13)
6 11 Randall Cobb GB 24.1 (7)
6 12 Sammy Watkins BUF 21.2 (12)
6 13 Victor Cruz NYG 27.8 (11)
6 14 Mike Evans TB 21.0 (14)
7 15 Michael Floyd ARI 24.8 (18)
7 16 Keenan Allen SD 22.4 (17)
7 17 Cordarrelle Patterson MIN 23.5 (16)
7 18 Brandin Cooks NO 20.9 (20)
7 19 Michael Crabtree SF 27.0 (15)

7 20 Pierre Garcon WAS 28.1 (19)
8 21 T.Y. Hilton IND 24.8 (23)
8 22 DeSean Jackson WAS 27.7 (24)
8 23 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 21.8 (27)
8 24 Davante Adams GB 21.7 (25)
8 25 Kelvin Benjamin CAR 23.6 (37)
8 26 Vincent Jackson TB 31.6 (28)
8 27 Tavon Austin STL 23.5 (22)

8 28 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 22.3 (31)
8 29 Josh Gordon CLE 23.4 (21)
8 30 Torrey Smith BAL 25.6 (29)
8 31 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 31.0 (26)
8 32 Justin Hunter TEN 23.3 (32)
8 33 Andre Johnson HOU 33.1 (30)
9 34 Kendall Wright TEN 24.8 (44)
9 35 Jeremy Maclin PHI 26.3 (34)
9 36 Jordan Matthews PHI 22.1 (33)
9 37 Eric Decker NYJ 27.5 (35)
9 38 Marqise Lee JAX 22.8 (36)
9 39 Roddy White ATL 32.8 (41)
9 40 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 27.4 (55)
9 41 Allen Robinson JAX 21.0 (38)
9 42 Cody Latimer DEN 21.9 (39)
9 43 Mike Wallace MIA 28.1 (40)
9 44 Cecil Shorts JAX 26.7 (45)
9 45 Justin Blackmon JAX 24.6 (42)
9 46 Wes Welker DEN 33.3 (46)
9 47 Marques Colston NO 31.2 (49)
9 48 Donte Moncrief IND 21.1 (43)
9 49 Julian Edelman NE 28.3 (51)
10 50 Terrance Williams DAL 25.0 (52)
10 51 Golden Tate DET 26.1 (47)
10 52 Paul Richardson SEA 22.4 (61)
10 53 Kenny Britt STL 25.9 (57)
10 54 Markus Wheaton PIT 23.6 (59)
10 55 Danny Amendola NE 28.8 (53)
10 56 Hakeem Nicks IND 26.6 (48)
10 57 Dwayne Bowe KC 29.9 (50)
10 58 Aaron Dobson NE 23.2 (56)
10 59 Stedman Bailey STL 23.8 (64)
10 60 Robert Woods BUF 22.4 (60)
10 61 Greg Jennings MIN 30.9 (63)
10 62 Mike Williams BUF 27.3 (58)
10 63 Rueben Randle NYG 23.3 (69)
10 64 Reggie Wayne IND 35.8 (77)
11 65 Kenny Stills NO 22.4 (65)
11 66 Marvin Jones CIN 24.5 (71)
11 67 Josh Huff PHI 22.9 (62)
11 68 Jarrett Boykin GB 24.8 (67)
11 69 Riley Cooper PHI 27.0 (68)
11 70 John Brown ARI 24.4 (72)
11 71 Jeff Janis GB 23.2 (91)

11 72 Andre Holmes OAK 26.2 (66)
11 73 Steve Johnson SF 28.1 (54)
11 74 Martavis Bryant PIT 22.7 (70)
11 75 Doug Baldwin SEA 26.9 (81)
11 76 Brian Hartline MIA 27.8 (88)
11 77 Brian Quick STL 25.2 (117)
12 78 Allen Hurns JAX 22.8 unr
12 79 Corey Washington NYG 22.7 unr
12 80 Miles Austin CLE 30.2 (76)
12 81 Rod Streater OAK 26.6 (86)
12 82 Anquan Boldin SF 33.9 (82)
12 83 Jermaine Kearse SEA 24.6 (106)
12 84 James Jones OAK 30.4 (100)
12 85 Malcom Floyd SD 33.0 (87)
12 86 Andrew Hawkins CLE 28.5 (102)
12 87 Jarvis Landry MIA 21.8 (96)
12 88 Kenbrell Thompkins NE 26.1 (103)
12 89 Steve Smith BAL 35.4 (80)
12 90 Jerricho Cotchery CAR 32.2 (83)
12 91 Quinton Patton SF 24.1 (89)
12 92 Marquess Wilson CHI 22.0 (118)
12 93 Harry Douglas ATL 30.0 (125)
12 94 Charles Johnson CLE 25.5 (92)
12 95 Nick Toon NO 25.8 (134)
12 96 Jared Abbrederis GB 23.7 (79)
12 97 Da'Rick Rogers IND 23.2 (93)
12 98 Nate Washington TEN 31.0 (97)
12 99 Brandon LaFell NE 27.8 (110)
12 100 Marquise Goodwin BUF 23.8 (75)
12 101 Ryan Grant WAS 23.7 (121)
12 102 Santonio Holmes CHI 30.5 (74)
12 103 Marlon Brown BAL 23.4 (85)
12 104 Ryan Broyles DET 26.4 (126)
13 105 A.J. Jenkins KC 24.9 (101)
13 106 Danario Alexander FA 26.0 (78)
13 107 Jeremy Kerley NYJ 25.8 (124)
13 108 Joseph Morgan NO 26.5 (123)
13 109 Brenton Bersin CAR 24.3 unr
13 110 Bruce Ellington SF 23.0 (95.1)
13 111 Chris Givens STL 24.7 (105)
13 112 Andre Roberts WAS 26.6 (109)
13 113 Jerrel Jernigan NYG 25.2 (129)
13 114 Lance Moore PIT 31.0 (99)
13 115 Denarius Moore OAK 25.7 (98)
13 116 Kevin Norwood SEA 24.8 (113)
13 117 Albert Wilson KC 22.2 (143)
13 118 TJ Jones DET 22.1 (116)
13 119 Michael Campanaro BAL 23.6 (122)
13 120 Jalen Saunders NYJ 21.9 (128)
13 121 Mohamed Sanu CIN 25.0 (141)
13 122 Robert Herron TB 22.3 (107)

QUARTERBACK

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Aaron Rodgers GB 31.7 (1)
2 2 Cam Newton CAR 25.3 (2)
2 3 Andrew Luck IND 25.0 (4)
2 4 Robert Griffin III WAS 24.5 (3)
3 5 Drew Brees NO 35.6 (5)
3 6 Russell Wilson SEA 25.8 (6)
3 7 Matthew Stafford DET 26.6 (8)
3 8 Colin Kaepernick SF 26.8 (7)
3 9 Nick Foles PHI 25.6 (9)
4 10 Matt Ryan ATL 29.3 (10)
4 11 Peyton Manning DEN 38.4 (11)
4 12 Tony Romo DAL 34.4 (13)
4 13 Philip Rivers SD 32.7 (14)
4 14 Tom Brady NE 37.1 (12)
5 15 Johnny Manziel CLE 21.8 (16)
5 16 Ryan Tannehill MIA 26.1 (15)
5 17 Blake Bortles JAX 22.7 (17)
5 18 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 21.8 (18)
5 19 Jay Cutler CHI 31.3 (21)
5 20 Geno Smith NYJ 23.9 (25)

5 21 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33.5 (20)
6 22 Andy Dalton CIN 26.8 (19)
6 23 Derek Carr OAK 23.4 (24)
6 24 Sam Bradford STL 26.8 (23)
6 25 Jake Locker TEN 26.2 (34)
7 26 EJ Manuel BUF 24.5 (22)
7 27 Eli Manning NYG 33.7 (26)
7 28 Michael Vick PHI 34.2 (27)
7 29 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 22.8 (36)
8 30 Brock Osweiler DEN 23.8 (38)
8 31 Joe Flacco BAL 29.6 (28)
8 32 Alex Smith KC 32.4 (31)
8 33 Josh McCown TB 35.2 (30)
8 34 Carson Palmer ARI 34.7 (29)
8 35 Mike Glennon TB 24.7 (32)
9 36 Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 31.8 (33)
9 37 Ryan Nassib NYG 24.5 unr
9 38 Zach Mettenberger TEN 23.1 (39)
9 39 Ryan Mallett HOU 26.2 (37)
9 40 Brian Hoyer CLE 28.9 (41)
9 41 Mark Sanchez PHI 27.8 unr
9 42 Logan Thomas ARI 23.2 (45)
9 43 Matt Cassel MIN 32.3 (55)
9 44 Kyle Orton BUF 31.8 unr
9 45 Matt Schaub OAK 33.2 (35)
9 46 Jimmy Clausen CHI 27.0 unr
9 47 Tom Savage HOU 24.4 (43)
9 48 Terrelle Pryor SEA 25.2 (42)
9 49 Kirk Cousins WAS 26.1 (47)
9 50 Chad Henne JAX 29.2 (51)
10 51 Ryan Griffin NO 24.8 unr
10 52 Aaron Murray KC 23.8 (48)
10 53 David Fales CHI 23.9 (49)
10 54 A.J. McCarron CIN 24.0 (40)
10 55 Matt Barkley PHI 24.0 (44)
10 56 Landry Jones PIT 25.4 (50)
10 57 Blaine Gabbert SF 24.9 (55)
10 58 Case Keenum 26.6 (46)

TIGHT END

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Jimmy Graham NO 27.8 (1)
1 2 Rob Gronkowski NE 25.3 (2)
2 3 Julius Thomas DEN 26.2 (3)
2 4 Jordan Cameron CLE 26.1 (4)
2 5 Eric Ebron DET 21.4 (5)
3 6 Zach Ertz PHI 23.8 (6)
3 7 Jordan Reed WAS 24.2 (7)
3 8 Ladarius Green SD 24.3 (9)
3 9 Tyler Eifert CIN 24.0 (8)
4 10 Greg Olsen CAR 29.5 (12)
4 11 Dennis Pitta BAL 29.2 (13)
4 12 Kyle Rudolph MIN 24.8 (18)
4 13 Charles Clay MIA 25.6 (15)
4 14 Vernon Davis SF 30.6 (10)
4 15 Jason Witten DAL 32.3 (11)
5 16 Martellus Bennett CHI 27.5 (14)
5 17 Jace Amaro NYJ 22.2 (16)
5 18 Dwayne Allen IND 24.5 (17)
5 19 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB 21.9 (19)
5 20 Travis Kelce KC 24.9 (22)
6 21 Coby Fleener IND 25.9 (21)
6 22 Richard Rodgers GB 22.6 (27)
6 23 Heath Miller PIT 31.9 (25)
6 24 Luke Willson SEA 24.6 (23)
6 25 C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU 22.9 (24)
6 26 Tim Wright NE 24.4 (52)
6 27 Jared Cook STL 27.4 (28)
6 28 Antonio Gates SD 34.2 (26)
7 29 Demetrius Harris KC 23.1 unr
7 30 Robert Housler ARI 26.5 (30)
7 31 Brandon Bostick GB 25.3 (35)
7 32 David Ausberry OAK 27.0 (33)
7 33 Gavin Escobar DAL 23.6 (40)
7 34 Delanie Walker TEN 30.1 (45)
7 35 Troy Niklas ARI 22.0 (36)
7 36 Taylor Thompson TEN 24.9 (57)

7 37 Brandon Williams CAR 26.9 unr

7 38 Mychal Rivera OAK 24.0 (37)

8 39 Colt Lyerla GB 21.8 (20)
8 40 Dustin Keller FA 29.9 (31)
8 41 Adrien Robinson NYG 26.0 (29)
8 42 Vance McDonald SF 24.2 (44)
8 43 Levine Toilolo ATL 23.1 (39)
8 44 Jermichael Finley FA 27.4 (32)
8 45 Jermaine Gresham CIN 26.2 (47)
8 46 Scott Chandler BUF 29.2 (54)
8 47 Garrett Graham HOU 28.1 (38)
8 48 Brent Celek PHI 29.6 (48)

A lot of the movement since May is based on changes in my perceptions of players' redraft value. Here are just a few comments on some of the movers:

I've come around on Joique Bell, after positive views on him from Adam Harstad & Football Outsiders convinced me to take another look. It is rare for a team to have 2 fantasy viable runners, but it is possible to sustain more than one RB if they're heavily involved in the passing game (as the Saints have shown). And it looks like Bush & Bell will both be heavily involved as receivers. Bell also looks to be in position to get the high-fantasy-value touches at the goalline, which gives him a role similar to what a young MJD had in Jacksonville (though MJD was obviously more talented, and unlike Fred Taylor, Bush will also get plenty of use as a receiver).

Jordy Nelson has re-signed in GB, and Cobb has not, which has caused a fairly large shift in their expected value. It's just a few spots in the rankings, but the dropoff in value is quite steep there. They have each moved a tier.

Geno Smith and EJ Manuel swap orders and grow a bit more of a gap between each other. Good QBs usually show something in their first two years, and in the past few months we've gotten some decent signs of what's likely to be coming in their second season (including the information that Kyle Orton is the veteran who has been lured out of retirement this year).

At TE, the veterans Vernon Davis & Witten slide behind some younger guys who I see as having roughly similar redraft value. I don't think that Davis or Witten is likely to give a big enough edge this year to be worth all that much as a win-now veteran.

Looks pretty good. I'd bump up Andre Williams and Jimmy Garoppolo a bit. I'd take Bortles over Tannehill and Manziel as well.

Thanks for the legwork, solid rankings.

Christine Michael at 14..... the hype continues.

Nice to see the recognition for Allen Hurns, and Corey Washington, I'd probably bump them another 10 spots.

Good work and thanks for posting.

Casting Couch said:

Thanks for the legwork, solid rankings.

Christine Michael at 14..... the hype continues.

Nice to see the recognition for Allen Hurns, and Corey Washington, I'd probably bump them another 10 spots.

Click to expand...

I've liked Michael a lot since before he was drafted (he was my #2 RB in the class, behind Lacy), and he has been pretty steady in my rankings since November. He's at 14 in large part because the RB field is so thin. Looking at the guys behind him: Hyde and Sankey were drafted around the same spot as him and have not seen the field yet. Vereen has been in the league for 3 years and has only 1400 career yards from scrimmage and 141 career carries (playoffs included). Richardson has 3.3 ypc on 455 carries, and has looked bad doing it. Stacy has one year as a decent workhorse & fantasy RB2, after beating out Daryl Richardson & Isaiah Pead, and there continue to be questions about whether he'll hang onto his job. Ellington was electric on a small sample size in the COP role and it remains to be seen how he'll do as an every down, between the tackles runner. Mathews seems pretty settled into a committee that saps his upside. None of them is a guy who seems to merit the #14 dynasty RB slot.

Hurns and Washington: you may be right. I think I might move them up between Janis & Holmes.

EBF said:

Looks pretty good. I'd bump up Andre Williams and Jimmy Garoppolo a bit. I'd take Bortles over Tannehill and Manziel as well.

Click to expand...

QB is about upside, which Manziel has over Bortles & Tannehill on account of his legs. Football Outsiders even has him projected to be a QB1 this year if he plays. If you're looking for the guy who is a safer bet to be a top 20 fantasy QB then you'd want Bortles over Manziel, but that is definitely not what I'm looking for.

Garoppolo is expensive to roster because you'll probably have to wait a while to see what he can do. Once Brady's gone, you're still only looking at a QB who is not as strong a prospect as Bortles or Bridgewater. I generally prefer to churn that roster spot instead of waiting for years on a decent QB prospect.

Andre Williams is part of a big tier of RBs who I have rated relatively close to each other - #46 (Williams) is actually pretty close to #34 (Pierce) in my eyes. He did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Thanks for posting your rankings ZWK, always nice to see where other owners have everyone

Cam has a huge variance in dynasty vs redraft.

regarding Smith vs. Manuel, if the Orton signing is so portentous for Manuel, wouldn't Vick be an even worse sign?

ZWK said:

Andre Williams...did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Click to expand...

Agree about his upside, but he might be a good enough runner that he can still have some strong FF seasons. I don't think he's going to be the starter this year. However, I expect him to play a good amount and continue to show well. He could be a 1k rusher as early as 2015 IMO.

My philosophy at QB is also to aim for upside behind my starter. Mid-level players have very little value outside of superflex/2QB leagues. Hence why I'd roll with the mystery of Garoppolo over the proven suck of guys like Vick (old and on the bench), Geno, Manuel, and Locker (I know two of those guys are only sophomores, but they look terribad). Not sure I'd move him for a guy like Eli, Dalton, or Bradford either. The former two are purely depth whereas Bradford seems like he's made of glass.

EBF said:

ZWK said:

Andre Williams...did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Click to expand...

Agree about his upside, but he might be a good enough runner that he can still have some strong FF seasons. I don't think he's going to be the starter this year. However, I expect him to play a good amount and continue to show well. He could be a 1k rusher as early as 2015 IMO.

My philosophy at QB is also to aim for upside behind my starter. Mid-level players have very little value outside of superflex/2QB leagues. Hence why I'd roll with the mystery of Garoppolo over the proven suck of guys like Vick (old and on the bench), Geno, Manuel, and Locker (I know two of those guys are only sophomores, but they look terribad). Not sure I'd move him for a guy like Eli, Dalton, or Bradford either. The former two are purely depth whereas Bradford seems like he's made of glass.

Click to expand...

We had this Garoppolo debate in May; I don't have much to add to what I wrote then. Rostering Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot like rostering Jared Abbrederis, except you'll probably have to wait longer with Jimmy than with Jared. Though, to be fair, Jimmy also probably does have somewhat better odds of hitting (and I've moved him up in my rankings since May because my sense is that these odds have improved).

I think you are giving up too soon on Geno, Manuel, and Locker. None of them has even 600 NFL attempts yet. They aren't mid-level players; they are youngish not-so-promising prospects who are likely to bust but could still turn into fantasy starters (thanks in part to their running).

Good work as always ZWK.

Thanks also to Casting Couch bringing up Corey Washington who has flown under my radar. I will take some more time to learn about him.

In that same vein I would like to bring Damien Williams of Miami to your attention. The Dolphins offensive line is a work in progress but I think Williams could end up being the RB to have there if he can keep his head on straight and Moreno/Miller falter.

ZWK said:

EBF said:

ZWK said:

Andre Williams...did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Click to expand...

Agree about his upside, but he might be a good enough runner that he can still have some strong FF seasons. I don't think he's going to be the starter this year. However, I expect him to play a good amount and continue to show well. He could be a 1k rusher as early as 2015 IMO.

My philosophy at QB is also to aim for upside behind my starter. Mid-level players have very little value outside of superflex/2QB leagues. Hence why I'd roll with the mystery of Garoppolo over the proven suck of guys like Vick (old and on the bench), Geno, Manuel, and Locker (I know two of those guys are only sophomores, but they look terribad). Not sure I'd move him for a guy like Eli, Dalton, or Bradford either. The former two are purely depth whereas Bradford seems like he's made of glass.

Click to expand...

We had this Garoppolo debate in May; I don't have much to add to what I wrote then. Rostering Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot like rostering Jared Abbrederis, except you'll probably have to wait longer with Jimmy than with Jared. Though, to be fair, Jimmy also probably does have somewhat better odds of hitting (and I've moved him up in my rankings since May because my sense is that these odds have improved).

I think you are giving up too soon on Geno, Manuel, and Locker. None of them has even 600 NFL attempts yet. They aren't mid-level players; they are youngish not-so-promising prospects who are likely to bust but could still turn into fantasy starters (thanks in part to their running).

Click to expand...

Toss out the Jacksonville game where he left early to injury, and Jake Locker essentially produced identical PPG numbers last year to Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepernick, two decidedly non-useless dynasty QBs.

Locker sucks. Always has. Always will.

EBF said:

Locker sucks. Always has. Always will.

Click to expand...

Hope you're wrong but i think you might be correct.

Yeah, dump Locker if you can. I'd take Nassib, Savage or Garoppolo over him going forward. Not an accurate QB, backup material.

Milkman said:

EBF said:

Locker sucks. Always has. Always will.

Click to expand...

Hope you're wrong but i think you might be correct.

Click to expand...

As a Pac-12 homer and NFL watcher, I've had to endure about 7 years of Locker hope. He was a 5 star recruit out of HS and everyone expected him to be the next great thing. Didn't happen. Washington made a coaching change and people thought Locker would finally turn the corner. Didn't happen. He came back for his senior year and people thought he would finally blossom. Didn't happen. The Titans foolishly spent a top 10 pick on him and some people thought he would become a franchise QB. Hasn't happened. At some point you realize that the potential is deceptive and what you see is exactly who he is.

Look at his entire career:

2007 - 47.3% completions, 6.3 YPA, 0.93 TD:INT ratio

2008 - 53.8% completions, 5.5 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT (injury-shortened season)

2009 - 58.4% completions, 7.1 YPA, 1.91 TD:INT ratio

2010 - 55.4% completions, 6.8 YPA, 1.89 TD:INT ratio

-------------

2011 - 51.5% completions, 8.21 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT (only 66 pass attempts)

2012 - 56.4% completions, 6.93 YPA, 0.91 TD:INT ratio

2013 - 60.7% completions, 6.86 YPA, 2.00 TD:INT ratio

He has never had anything close to a great season. I'll give him some credit for protecting the ball at various points in his career, but accuracy is not his strong suit and you can forget about efficiency altogether. He has never averaged more than 7.1 YPA in a season dating back to college, apart from his rookie year where he essentially played 2-3 games. And when you look at his NFL stats, keep in mind that his coaches have basically given him the Tebow treatment in terms of taking the ball out of his hands and limiting his pass attempts as much as possible. If you remove the game in which he got hurt last year, he averaged 29 pass attempts per game. That would equate to 464 pass attempts over the course of a 16 game season, which would've ranked 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL last year. It's one thing to have bad efficiency stats when you're throwing the ball a billion times like Luck or Stafford, but when your team is playing small ball and you still can't be efficient, that's a pretty bad sign.

I like the weapons that Locker has at his disposal and I could see him being a serviceable QB2 this season if he just chucks it up to Hunter and Wright all day, but he'll likely never be more than a Flacco or post-injuries Palmer type of QB. And that might be his ceiling. Jake the Fake has never been an especially good passer at any point in his CFB or NFL career. I think it's more likely that 7 years of performance paints an accurate picture of who he is than it is that he's going to wake up one day and suddenly have the accuracy, decisiveness, and poise to be an efficient passer.

Hunter could help Locker but he'd have to turn into an elite WR and he's a long shot to do that.

Cam Newton: I'm higher than most on him in redraft. Stafford is the only QB who is 1) ahead of him in my redraft rankings by more than a few fantasy points, 2) behind him in my dynasty rankings, and 3) under 35.

Jake Locker: His numbers were averageish last year (e.g., 22nd out of 45 in passing DVOA, 16th out of 44 in EPA/play). When a first round QB who runs for 25 yds/g improves from bad in his first year as a starter to averageish in his second, it seems worth keeping an eye on him. Most likely outcome is that he's not a starting QB two years from now, but if he improves to an above average passer and keeps running then you might have something there.

Damien Williams: I was not a fan of his coming into the league. On video, I thought he looked like he was moving well, but whenever he got near a defender the defender got a clean shot on him and took him down. I guess he belongs somewhere on the list, but I'd put him down near the bottom (in the 90-100 range).

EJ Manuel & Geno Smith: The Vick signing was a bad sign for Smith when it happened, but then Smith clearly beat him out for the job. Buffalo just decided this week that they needed to pay $5M for another QB. Smith looked pretty good this offseason, including in preseason action, while Manuel did not.

I love ya ZWK, I really do, but this is just glaring...

121 Mohamed Sanu CIN

I just can't wrap my head around why he could be the second to last ranked WR in dynasty.

Looking at the list, I move him up a minimum of 40 spots.

How many years of poor RB play will it take for you to drop T Richardson?

Great work man.

EBF said:

Locker sucks. Always has. Always will.

Click to expand...

Being a good NFL quarterback and being a useful fantasy quarterback are two entirely different things. On a per-start basis, he produces over 400 rushing yards per 16 games. That's substantial, and will cover for all manner of sins. Most of the guys in that range are never going to amount to anything as NFL quarterbacks, but at least the runners can get you some fantasy production before they flame out.

Adam Harstad said:

EBF said:

Locker sucks. Always has. Always will.

Click to expand...

Being a good NFL quarterback and being a useful fantasy quarterback are two entirely different things. On a per-start basis, he produces over 400 rushing yards per 16 games. That's substantial, and will cover for all manner of sins. Most of the guys in that range are never going to amount to anything as NFL quarterbacks, but at least the runners can get you some fantasy production before they flame out.

Click to expand...

Before he got hurt last season, Locker looked pretty good in the couple games I happened to see. Seems worth taking a flyer on for a #3 QB at #25 in a 12 team league.

Casting Couch said:

I love ya ZWK, I really do, but this is just glaring...

121 Mohamed Sanu CIN

I just can't wrap my head around why he could be the second to last ranked WR in dynasty.

Looking at the list, I move him up a minimum of 40 spots.

Click to expand...

You're probably right that 121 is a little too low. I think I didn't update after Jones's suspension. Sanu might be worth rostering for a few weeks, on the principle that he has an opportunity and anything can happen.

I'm optimistic about him, though - he's a low-upside possession receiver. His preseason TD against the Jets was his first 40-yard reception since 2009. He was one of only a handful of receivers to average less than 1 yard per route run last year, with numbers that were eerily similar to Jason Avant's.

Thanks for the rankings Zwk! What are your thoughts on Hopkins? He's a little lower on the wr list than I expected him to be.

cusefan115 said:

Thanks for the rankings Zwk! What are your thoughts on Hopkins? He's a little lower on the wr list than I expected him to be.

Click to expand...

Hopkins is pretty much right where I had him a year ago. His rookie year was not very informative. Maybe just a slight moderation of his possibilities - a bit less likely to be a bust, and also a bit less likely to be a top 5 WR. A year ago I liked him slightly more than a generic "late first round receiver".

Adam Harstad said:

ZWK said:

EBF said:

ZWK said:

Andre Williams...did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Click to expand...

Agree about his upside, but he might be a good enough runner that he can still have some strong FF seasons. I don't think he's going to be the starter this year. However, I expect him to play a good amount and continue to show well. He could be a 1k rusher as early as 2015 IMO.

My philosophy at QB is also to aim for upside behind my starter. Mid-level players have very little value outside of superflex/2QB leagues. Hence why I'd roll with the mystery of Garoppolo over the proven suck of guys like Vick (old and on the bench), Geno, Manuel, and Locker (I know two of those guys are only sophomores, but they look terribad). Not sure I'd move him for a guy like Eli, Dalton, or Bradford either. The former two are purely depth whereas Bradford seems like he's made of glass.

Click to expand...

We had this Garoppolo debate in May; I don't have much to add to what I wrote then. Rostering Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot like rostering Jared Abbrederis, except you'll probably have to wait longer with Jimmy than with Jared. Though, to be fair, Jimmy also probably does have somewhat better odds of hitting (and I've moved him up in my rankings since May because my sense is that these odds have improved).

I think you are giving up too soon on Geno, Manuel, and Locker. None of them has even 600 NFL attempts yet. They aren't mid-level players; they are youngish not-so-promising prospects who are likely to bust but could still turn into fantasy starters (thanks in part to their running).

Click to expand...

Toss out the Jacksonville game where he left early to injury, and Jake Locker essentially produced identical PPG numbers last year to Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepernick, two decidedly non-useless dynasty QBs.

Click to expand...

I've been going back and forth on Locker. It seemed like last year he was starting to figure it out and then he got hurt. His completion percentage has steadily increased each year as has his QB rating. This preseason he was really quite good. If Hunter becomes a star he will have one of the better wide receiver corps.

I see all of EBF's points and suspect he is probably right, but I think Locker is worth one more shot this season and could imagine him becoming a Jake Cutler type QB. I don't ever see him being a top 5 QB but he could be serviceable.

az_prof said:

Adam Harstad said:

ZWK said:

EBF said:

ZWK said:

Andre Williams...did run pretty well this preseason, but I don't have him higher because he remains firmly behind Jennings and his lack of receiving chops cap his upside.

Click to expand...

Agree about his upside, but he might be a good enough runner that he can still have some strong FF seasons. I don't think he's going to be the starter this year. However, I expect him to play a good amount and continue to show well. He could be a 1k rusher as early as 2015 IMO.

My philosophy at QB is also to aim for upside behind my starter. Mid-level players have very little value outside of superflex/2QB leagues. Hence why I'd roll with the mystery of Garoppolo over the proven suck of guys like Vick (old and on the bench), Geno, Manuel, and Locker (I know two of those guys are only sophomores, but they look terribad). Not sure I'd move him for a guy like Eli, Dalton, or Bradford either. The former two are purely depth whereas Bradford seems like he's made of glass.

Click to expand...

We had this Garoppolo debate in May; I don't have much to add to what I wrote then. Rostering Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot like rostering Jared Abbrederis, except you'll probably have to wait longer with Jimmy than with Jared. Though, to be fair, Jimmy also probably does have somewhat better odds of hitting (and I've moved him up in my rankings since May because my sense is that these odds have improved).

I think you are giving up too soon on Geno, Manuel, and Locker. None of them has even 600 NFL attempts yet. They aren't mid-level players; they are youngish not-so-promising prospects who are likely to bust but could still turn into fantasy starters (thanks in part to their running).

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Toss out the Jacksonville game where he left early to injury, and Jake Locker essentially produced identical PPG numbers last year to Ben Roethlisberger and Colin Kaepernick, two decidedly non-useless dynasty QBs.

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I've been going back and forth on Locker. It seemed like last year he was starting to figure it out and then he got hurt. His completion percentage has steadily increased each year as has his QB rating. This preseason he was really quite good. If Hunter becomes a star he will have one of the better wide receiver corps.

I see all of EBF's points and suspect he is probably right, but I think Locker is worth one more shot this season and could imagine him becoming a Jake Cutler type QB. I don't ever see him being a top 5 QB but he could be serviceable.

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I have similar thoughts on Locker. I've seen some improvement but does TEN believe that he can improve enough to lead the team as needed? This preseason Locker has been much improved and seems more comfortable, and his throws are more accurate. The offense might also be geared to align with him more as well. I'm hoping that he finally pans out because he has been ugly in form and constantly injured up to this point. My gut says that EBF is mostly right on Locker, but I hope we're both wrong, as I am taking a shot on him in a couple leagues where owners have given up.

Always have greatly appreciated the work you put into these rankings. Wonderful stuff.

I was wondering if you could elaborate on the two tier gap between Gerhart and J. Bell. A lot of aggregate rankings have them ranked right next to each other. Close in age, and it seems reasonable to expect similar production for the next few years (albeit one with higher efficiency in a better offense, and one with greater volume in a worse offense). Just something that caught my eye, and I'm curious is all.

EastonBlues22 said:

Always have greatly appreciated the work you put into these rankings. Wonderful stuff.

I was wondering if you could elaborate on the two tier gap between Gerhart and J. Bell. A lot of aggregate rankings have them ranked right next to each other. Close in age, and it seems reasonable to expect similar production for the next few years (albeit one with higher efficiency in a better offense, and one with greater volume in a worse offense). Just something that caught my eye, and I'm curious is all.

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These are non-ppr rankings, and I think most people have some gap between Gerhart & Bell in that format (FFCalculator has them at RB19 & RB25). I see Gerhart as having more upside, both this year and over the next couple seasons. In order to put up high-end RB2 numbers, Gerhart mostly just needs to keep his apparent workhorse role and have the Jags' offense to regress towards the mean. Joique would probably need Bush to get out of the picture (or have his role significantly reduced), which doesn't seem all that likely since Bush is only a year older than Bell and is signed through 2016 at a reasonably price.

You really love some Davante Adams. Like a lot!

Great list.

matttyl said:

You really love some Davante Adams. Like a lot!

Great list.

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Aaron Rodgers in his prime. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, Green Bay has averaged 107 WR VBD per season, second most in the NFL (behind Denver) and more than double the league average (52 WR VBD per season). They've done it with Jennings and Nelson, and to a lesser extent Cobb, late-career Driver, and James Jones. I'm buying WRs in that offense. (Although if Cobb re-signs that could be a problem.)

ZWK said:

matttyl said:

You really love some Davante Adams. Like a lot!

Great list.

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Aaron Rodgers in his prime. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, Green Bay has averaged 107 WR VBD per season, second most in the NFL (behind Denver) and more than double the league average (52 WR VBD per season). They've done it with Jennings and Nelson, and to a lesser extent Cobb, late-career Driver, and James Jones. I'm buying WRs in that offense. (Although if Cobb re-signs that could be a problem.)

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Mentioned this earlier this offseason, but over the last three years the top three WRs in fantasy points per target are Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones. That Green Bay offense is probably the only one in the league where a guy only needs 100 targets to be a reliable every-week starter.

Any updated in season rankings, ZWK ?

I haven't been able to keep my rankings up to date this season. I haven't spent a solid chunk of time working on them, just brief bits here and there, which means that before I can get them up to date the date changes. I've been trying my hand at daily fantasy, so my solid chunks of fantasy football time have been going towards that.

I'll see if I can get one position posted this week. (No guarantees.)

Updated RB rankings. Age as of 11/1/14. Prev shows my August 31 rankings; I also shared my top 12 at the beginning of October. Rankings assume no PPR, 24 starting RBs, about 250 position players rostered.

Tiers mean a lot here - there is quite a large drop from #6 (Lacy) to #10 (Ellington), and not that all huge a drop from #10 to #39 (West).

These rankings are a bit less polished than my offseason ones, which means that an additional 30 minutes of work on them would probably cause more changes now than would did then.

Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 LeVeon Bell PIT 22.7 (8)
2 2 LeSean McCoy PHI 26.3 (1)
2 3 DeMarco Murray DAL 26.7 (6)
2 4 Jamaal Charles KC 27.9 (2)
2 5 Giovani Bernard CIN 23.0 (5)
2 6 Eddie Lacy GB 24.4 (3)
3 7 Matt Forte CHI 28.9 (10)
3 8 Marshawn Lynch SEA 28.6 (13)
3 9 Arian Foster HOU 28.2 (21)
5 10 Andre Ellington ARI 25.8 (17)
5 11 Alfred Morris WAS 25.9 (12)
5 12 Carlos Hyde SF 23.1 (15)
5 13 Doug Martin TB 25.8 (4)
5 14 Christine Michael SEA 24.0 (14)
5 15 Bishop Sankey TEN 22.1 (20)
5 16 Adrian Peterson MIN 29.6 (9)
5 17 Mark Ingram NO 24.9 (30)
5 18 Tre Mason STL 21.3 (29)
5 19 Jerick McKinnon MIN 22.5 (36)
5 20 Ryan Mathews SD 27.1 (16)
5 21 Montee Ball DEN 23.9 (7)
5 22 Ben Tate CLE 26.2 (24)
5 23 C.J. Spiller BUF 27.3 (11)
5 24 Shane Vereen NE 25.7 (22)
5 25 Trent Richardson IND 24.3 (18)
5 26 Ronnie Hillman DEN 23.2 (60)
6 27 Jeremy Hill CIN 22.0 (28)
6 28 Zac Stacy STL 23.6 (19)
6 29 Rashad Jennings NYG 29.6 (27)
6 30 Ahmad Bradshaw IND 28.7 (61)
6 31 Denard Robinson JAX 24.1 (63)

6 32 Brandon Oliver SD 23.5 (93)

6 33 Chris Ivory NYJ 26.6 (49)

6 34 Lamar Miller MIA 23.6 (38)
6 35 Charles Sims TB 24.1 (41)
6 36 Joique Bell DET 28.3 (31)
6 37 Isaiah Crowell CLE 21.8 (69)
6 38 Justin Forsett BAL 29.1 unr
6 39 Terrance West CLE 23.8 (42)
7 40 Knile Davis KC 23.1 (52)
7 41 Khiry Robinson NO 24.9 (58)
7 42 Frank Gore SF 31.5 (44)
7 43 Reggie Bush DET 29.7 (25)
7 44 Andre Williams NYG 22.2 (46)
7 45 Devonta Freeman ATL 22.6 (35)
7 46 Toby Gerhart JAX 27.6 (23)
7 47 Pierre Thomas NO 29.9 (37)
7 48 Darren McFadden OAK 27.2 (40)
7 49 Jonathan Stewart CAR 27.6 (43)
8 50 Darren Sproles PHI 31.4 (50)
8 51 Stevan Ridley NE 25.8 (33)
8 52 Ray Rice FA 27.8 (26)
8 53 Bernard Pierce BAL 24.9 (34)
8 54 Knowshon Moreno MIA 27.3 (39)
8 55 Fred Jackson BUF 33.7 (54)
8 56 Bryce Brown BUF 23.5 (48)
8 57 Steven Jackson ATL 31.3 (45)
8 58 Chris Johnson NYJ 29.1 (32)
8 59 Benny Cunningham STL 24.3 (62)
8 60 Marcus Lattimore SF 23.0 (47)
8 61 C.J. Anderson DEN 23.7 (59)
8 62 Maurice Jones-Drew OAK 29.6 (51)
9 63 Juwan Thompson DEN 22.5 (86)

9 64 Antone Smith ATL 29.1 unr
9 65 Lorenzo Taliaferro BAL 22.9 (79)
9 66 Latavius Murray OAK 23.7 (67)
9 67 Anthony Dixon BUF 27.1 unr
9 68 Donald Brown SD 27.6 (65)
9 69 Dri Archer PIT 23.2 (57)
9 70 DeAngelo Williams CAR 31.6 (55)
9 71 Bobby Rainey TB 27.1 (84)
9 72 Lance Dunbar DAL 24.8 (53)
9 73 Shonn Greene TEN 29.2 (66)
9 74 Robert Turbin SEA 24.9 (71)
9 75 Roy Helu WAS 25.9 (74)
10 76 Brandon Bolden NE 24.8 (89)
10 77 KaDeem Carey CHI 22.0 (80)
10 78 Storm Johnson JAX 22.3 (97)
10 79 Joseph Randle DAL 22.9 (85)
10 80 Stepfan Taylor ARI 23.4 (87)
10 81 Travaris Cadet NO 25.8 (90)
10 82 Alfred Blue HOU 23.5 (77)
10 83 Danny Woodhead SD 29.9 (56)
10 84 LeGarrette Blount PIT 27.9 (64)
10 85 Chris Polk PHI 24.9 (70)
10 86 Vick Ballard IND 24.3 (101)
10 87 James White NE 22.8 (68)
10 88 DeAnthony Thomas KC 21.8 (73)
10 89 Kendall Hunter SF 25.2 (99)

D Murray, D Robinson, Bradshaw, and McKinnon are guys who I was high on in the offseason, so [insert gloating here]. On the other hand, I was also relatively high on David Wilson, and low on Le'Veon Bell. Robinson and McKinnon could still turn into busts, but their athleticism plus the performance that they've flashed (especially McKinnon) makes them pretty exciting prospects. Bradshaw is the same age as Forte, Lynch, and Foster, and has consistently performed when he's been on the field - this is his 5th straight year averaging over 75 YFS/g, and his YPC has been 4.5 or higher in every season except 2011. Bell looks legit as both a fantasy RB1 and an NFL runner (and pass catcher), and he's 22. I've come around on him.

Young guys have generally moved up the rankings since August, in part from some of them flashing skills but even more from attrition as some of the older win-now guys sliding down the rankings as they've shown that they actually won't help you very much at winning now. That why guys like Alfred Morris and Christine Michael seen their ranking stay stable (or even improve a bit), even though they've both been downgraded slightly in my eyes since the season started.

At first glance, Cleveland's 3 RBs have all been looking pretty good when they've played. But I think is about their strong offensive line than about them having a stacked RB corps. Crowell has jumped up in my rankings to a similar level as West, but West & Tate have basically stayed put in my eyes. (Tate benefits from the team's strong running game, but is hurt by the competition.)

Andre Williams has not looked very good this season, after an apparently strong preseason. It's even more striking after Rashad Jennings lit it up when he was healthy.

Gerhart's struggles might have been due to playing through an injury; he still has a chance to win his job back (or win the job elsewhere next year, if the Jags let him go). Fred Jackson looked good before he got injured, and is worth stashing for his playoff run. Knowshon Moreno has basically had one week of good news amidst a relentlessly bad offseason and season, but I think he's worth an IR stash for next year. I'd bet that Ray Rice has less than a 50% chance of ever playing another snap, but he still has significant upside - if it turns out that he doesn't suck, then his chances of a team eventually being willing to give him another chance are significantly higher. Hillman has won the Denver RB job for now, but it's not clear that the depth chart there is stabilized so Anderson & Thompson are still worth stashing.

Love this thread but shocked at Doug Martin, especially with Sims there.

Yea I agree mostly but Banger is right, Martin shouldn't be anywhere near the top 10