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Javeon Clowney where will he be picked in rookie drafts? (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable

Biabreakable

Footballguy
A couple days ago a guy asked an interesting question about where do people think Clowney will be drafted in upcoming rookie drafts?

matttyl said:
Biabreakable said:
matttyl said:
If it were an IDP league, should Clowney have already gone?
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More than likely. It depends on the scoring rules however.

If IDPs score comparably with the offensive players then yes I think he and Mack would likely be in the top half of the 1st round. Really depends on your scoring system however.
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That seems steep. I have the #7 pick and the #14 pick. I'm afraid that if I don't get him at 7, he won't make it to 14. I feel the same about Ebron, though.
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Obviously this is a difficult question to answer without scoring rules and more specifics about the situation.

In leagues where sacks are scored like TD I can see Clowney being a elite pass rushing prospect similar to Mario Williams and Julius Peppers before him. So in high scoring leagues for sacks, where do the rest of you see Clowney being drafted?

 
My IDP leagues are zealots leagues and the top IDP prospects can occasionally sneak into the end of round 1 but normally you see them start going a few picks into round 2. I am expecting Clowney to start going late round 2 - early round 3. My personal view is that he will probably be going about a round earlier than what I would want to take him.

 
Warhogs said:
My IDP leagues are zealots leagues and the top IDP prospects can occasionally sneak into the end of round 1 but normally you see them start going a few picks into round 2. I am expecting Clowney to start going late round 2 - early round 3. My personal view is that he will probably be going about a round earlier than what I would want to take him.
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I'm also a part of Zealots and I agree with the classic scoring for IDP's I can see middle of the 2nd round for Clowney. In the Zealots newer PPR leagues though that have increased IDP scoring I wouldn't be shocked if Clowney goes late 1st round.

I think a lot of it depends on the scoring from league to league.

 
I expect to see him go somewhere between 1.10-1.16 in my league, but my leaguemates tend to be all over the board, so I wouldn't be shocked if he went as high as 1.05 or as low as 2.08.

 
Given that someone took Ziggy Ansah at 1.06 last year, I imagine someone will be dumb and take him in the first half of round 1.

 
I just heard Mike Mayock compare Clowney to Bruce Smith. :eek:

"Former NFL head coach Tony Dungy has a suggestion for new Texans coach Bill O'Brien: Take South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney with the first overall pick in the draft.
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There is no one physically like Clowney in this draft," Dungy told USA Today. "If Houston wanted to make this a dynamic defense and really put pressure on people, I'd take Clowney first."
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Clowney (6-foot-5¼, 266 pounds) will have his pro day Wednesday (live coverage on NFL Network at 11 a.m. ET), and his performance surely will be scrutinized by a large contingent from the Texans, who are mulling their options with the first pick in the draft. Among those who will be in Columbia, S.C., for the event: O'Brien and Texans owner Bob McNair, a South Carolina alum.

While Clowney is expected to again wow onlookers with his athleticism, as he did at February's NFL Scouting Combine, it's what observers can't see that creates the angst. Clowney's work ethic has been criticized and some wonder about his every-down motor.

"That would be the thing that scares me," Dungy told USA Today. "You could get Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor. Or you could have Aundray Bruce (the No. overall 1 pick in the 1988 draft who never came close to living up to the hype) in Clowney.

"You hope you get Lawrence Taylor. Because that's who I saw in Clowney two years ago."

Clowney had 13 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss as a sophomore in 2012; those numbers fell precipitously, to three and 11.5, in 2013.

Regardless of the decline in production, Clowney seems a lock to be one of the draft's first three picks. The mystery surrounding the top part of the draft is whether Houston takes Clowney at No. 1 or bypasses him for a quarterback. When Dungy won the Super Bowl with Indianapolis, he had a quarterback who had been the No. overall 1 pick (Peyton Manning) and he also had a dominant pass rusher (Dwight Freeney). Houston already has a dominant pass rusher in J.J. Watt, and the Texans' biggest hole is at quarterback, though there is no quarterback in this draft like Manning. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000338893/article/tony-dungy-id-draft-jadeveon-clowney-with-first-overall-pick
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If I could go back in time and Bruce Smith were available as a rookie. Or Reggie White? I would be willing to use a pretty high pick on such a rare prospect.

 
I will be very interested in where he goes in the draft and how he will be used in the defensive scheme. I have been playing IDP for about 5 years now or so and the first thing I ever remember hearing from Jene Bramel and John Norton was draft elite defensive lineman because they are difference makers. LB's they pretty much are a dime a dozen (example Vincent Rey off waivers...Paul Worrilow)...same with DB's but if you have stud lineman they are key. I have the 1.3 and 1.10 picks in an IDP dynasty league and I am afraid he won't get to 10 so I am wondering about taking him at 3 if I can't trade up or down. Someone in my league said that he is looking for truly elite players at all his positions in dynasty...so take the 3rd best WR or possibly an all timer in Clowney at 1.3....wait and see I guess.

 
krsone21 said:
Warhogs said:
My IDP leagues are zealots leagues and the top IDP prospects can occasionally sneak into the end of round 1 but normally you see them start going a few picks into round 2. I am expecting Clowney to start going late round 2 - early round 3. My personal view is that he will probably be going about a round earlier than what I would want to take him.
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I'm also a part of Zealots and I agree with the classic scoring for IDP's I can see middle of the 2nd round for Clowney. In the Zealots newer PPR leagues though that have increased IDP scoring I wouldn't be shocked if Clowney goes late 1st round.

I think a lot of it depends on the scoring from league to league.
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I dont even think there is a question that he goes in the first in the PPR leagues. It's wonderful to have mid round picks in Zealots right now because of the insane depth in this class.

 
Does him going to Houston as a lb, get anyone worried. Our league picks round one before draft and was an option at bottom of first but lob design would drop his value big time.

 
My dynasty IDP leagues generally see the first defensive player drafted late 1st/early 2nd. In on league I looked back over the last 5 years of drafts and the highest defensive player drafted was 8th overall on two seperate years, both LB's (Kuechly and Curry). The other three years the highest was last pick in the first or first in the second. With the hype, I expect Clowney to possibly go higher in the 1st than 8th. If not, likely I will end up with him since I hold the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th picks in the first. I will not use the 3rd on him but depending on where he lands teams wise and the situation there I will certainly consider him with my 7th/8th selections. In fact, most likely at this point I will take him there if he is still on the board.

 
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Chadstroma said:
My dynasty IDP leagues generally see the first defensive player drafted late 1st/early 2nd. In on league I looked back over the last 5 years of drafts and the highest defensive player drafted was 8th overall on two seperate years, both LB's (Kuechly and Curry). The other three years the highest was last pick in the first or first in the second. With the hype, I expect Clowney to possibly go higher in the 1st than 8th. If not, likely I will end up with him since I hold the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th picks in the first. I will not use the 3rd on him but depending on where he lands teams wise and the situation there I will certainly consider him with my 7th/8th selections. In fact, most likely at this point I will take him there if he is still on the board.
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Lineups and scoring are key, but the depth at RB and WR will likely push Clowney out of the 1st in most of my leagues.

While it's common to see LBs go at the end of the first, the highest a DE has been taken in 5 years was Derrick Morgan at pick #18.

 
Crippler said:
Does him going to Houston as a lb, get anyone worried. Our league picks round one before draft and was an option at bottom of first but lob design would drop his value big time.
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This is a large part of the reason why I slide him back a bit and why he probably goes before I would take him. Many valuable DE take a big hit if their mfl position gets changed to LB in zealots. Top DE become very mediocre LB in zealots if they get a position change.

 
FUBAR said:
Chadstroma said:
My dynasty IDP leagues generally see the first defensive player drafted late 1st/early 2nd. In on league I looked back over the last 5 years of drafts and the highest defensive player drafted was 8th overall on two seperate years, both LB's (Kuechly and Curry). The other three years the highest was last pick in the first or first in the second. With the hype, I expect Clowney to possibly go higher in the 1st than 8th. If not, likely I will end up with him since I hold the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th picks in the first. I will not use the 3rd on him but depending on where he lands teams wise and the situation there I will certainly consider him with my 7th/8th selections. In fact, most likely at this point I will take him there if he is still on the board.
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Lineups and scoring are key, but the depth at RB and WR will likely push Clowney out of the 1st in most of my leagues.

While it's common to see LBs go at the end of the first, the highest a DE has been taken in 5 years was Derrick Morgan at pick #18.
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Generally the DL spots dont go until well into the 2nd if not 3rd round in my leagues but I am thinking the hype of Clowney is going to push him into the 1st. I am guessing he will be the 1st defensive player taken and I am guessing there is a good chance of someone taking him mid 1st in my primary dynasty league. Others I am thinking mid to late 1st. Of course, things can really change up depending on what players are drafted to what teams.

 
Chadstroma said:
FUBAR said:
Chadstroma said:
My dynasty IDP leagues generally see the first defensive player drafted late 1st/early 2nd. In on league I looked back over the last 5 years of drafts and the highest defensive player drafted was 8th overall on two seperate years, both LB's (Kuechly and Curry). The other three years the highest was last pick in the first or first in the second. With the hype, I expect Clowney to possibly go higher in the 1st than 8th. If not, likely I will end up with him since I hold the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th picks in the first. I will not use the 3rd on him but depending on where he lands teams wise and the situation there I will certainly consider him with my 7th/8th selections. In fact, most likely at this point I will take him there if he is still on the board.
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Lineups and scoring are key, but the depth at RB and WR will likely push Clowney out of the 1st in most of my leagues.

While it's common to see LBs go at the end of the first, the highest a DE has been taken in 5 years was Derrick Morgan at pick #18.
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Generally the DL spots dont go until well into the 2nd if not 3rd round in my leagues but I am thinking the hype of Clowney is going to push him into the 1st. I am guessing he will be the 1st defensive player taken and I am guessing there is a good chance of someone taking him mid 1st in my primary dynasty league. Others I am thinking mid to late 1st. Of course, things can really change up depending on what players are drafted to what teams.
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He might be the first defensive player taken, though I think Mosley gets that in most leagues if he lands in a decent spot, just for value of MLB.

Thinking back, the only DE I remember recently with near the hype was Mario Williams and he wasn't taken until pick #23 in the only IDP league I'm still in from 2006.

 
thaniz could you please post the scoring system for your league?

When I tried the link I was not able to access the info.

I think Clowney could contend for the top IDP drafted in scoring systems where sacks are 6pts or other systems that are sack heavy.

Right now I likely would not consider him before pick 9 as I would take these players over him-

WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron

I might consider Mosley or Shazier and some of the other offensive prospects ahead of Clowney as well. But I think at 9 in a rookie draft I would at least start considering Clowney.
 
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Crippler said:
Does him going to Houston as a lb, get anyone worried. Our league picks round one before draft and was an option at bottom of first but lob design would drop his value big time.
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Being drafted by Houston would be the worst possible outcome for Clowney's fantasy football value.

 
IDP scoring:

Tackles 1.4, assists 0.7, tackles for loss 1.5, sacks 3, passes defended 2, forced fumbles 3, interceptions 2.

Some examples for offensive scoring:

TD pass 4, passing 0.05 per yard, rushing & receiving TD 6, receiving yards 0.067, rushing yards 0.1, PPR: RB 0.5, WR 0.75, TE 1.

 
thaniz said:
IDP scoring:

Tackles 1.4, assists 0.7, tackles for loss 1.5, sacks 3, passes defended 2, forced fumbles 3, interceptions 2.

Some examples for offensive scoring:

TD pass 4, passing 0.05 per yard, rushing & receiving TD 6, receiving yards 0.067, rushing yards 0.1, PPR: RB 0.5, WR 0.75, TE 1.
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I'm no expert on IDP scoring formats outside of my leagues, but I'd be high on Justin Gilbert here. He's no tackler, but he will give you PD, INTs and be huge in the return game potentially once he gets his footing in the NFL. The key here is his return value.
 
thaniz said:
IDP scoring:

Tackles 1.4, assists 0.7, tackles for loss 1.5, sacks 3, passes defended 2, forced fumbles 3, interceptions 2.

Some examples for offensive scoring:

TD pass 4, passing 0.05 per yard, rushing & receiving TD 6, receiving yards 0.067, rushing yards 0.1, PPR: RB 0.5, WR 0.75, TE 1.
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Ok with sacks only being worth 3 (which is slightly more than double scoring for tackles) I do not think Clowney would be worth as much as the scenario I was talking about where sacks are scored 6 compared to 1pt for tackles.

For that kind of scoring Clowney will likely be taken in the second round but not before the top LBs.

 
FUBAR said:
Chadstroma said:
My dynasty IDP leagues generally see the first defensive player drafted late 1st/early 2nd. In on league I looked back over the last 5 years of drafts and the highest defensive player drafted was 8th overall on two seperate years, both LB's (Kuechly and Curry). The other three years the highest was last pick in the first or first in the second. With the hype, I expect Clowney to possibly go higher in the 1st than 8th. If not, likely I will end up with him since I hold the 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th picks in the first. I will not use the 3rd on him but depending on where he lands teams wise and the situation there I will certainly consider him with my 7th/8th selections. In fact, most likely at this point I will take him there if he is still on the board.
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Lineups and scoring are key, but the depth at RB and WR will likely push Clowney out of the 1st in most of my leagues.

While it's common to see LBs go at the end of the first, the highest a DE has been taken in 5 years was Derrick Morgan at pick #18.
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i won't consider him until the third but someone will pull the trigger in the second. It'd take a special kind of format for him to be justified going earlier. You'd be expecting him to hit his ceiling without any cost savings.
 
matttyl said:
Yeah, looks like Rotoworld already has him listed as a LB, and that's what MFL uses when they update positions, correct?
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That is correct. I would think they will run a position update not too long after the draft is completed.

 
Fleaflicker posted on the DLF forums saying they plan on listing him as a DL, which seems odd seeing as how everyone, including Houston's GM, has said he'll be a LB

 
He'll likely be a better NFL player than FF star at LB, not unlike Von Miller.

With the move, where do you rank him among LBs? Behind Mosley and Shazier I'd think.

Somewhere in the D Ware / Von Miller range?

 
16 team league, five round rookie draft starts Friday. I have him ranked in the 4th round. Even then, I probably wouldn't take him. I expect someone to take him in the middle of the 2nd round.

 
One of my leagues re-classifies rush OLBs from 3-4 schemes as DEs.

So, if Clowney is a DE would he be worth a 1st rounder in a balanced scoring league?

 
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Is anyone rolling with Clowney this week? An article I read said they think he will be eased back in. Trying to find someone to cover Lavonte David's bye week and this guy intrigues me.

 
Everything I've read says he has a 50-50 chance to play. Giving that it's Monday Night, I'm probably going to sit him and see how he performs in the future.

 
I'm not worried about Monday night. This league doesn't lock players so I can pick up someone else from those teams playing if need be.

 
But who else are you going to pick up? I always find it hard to find real quality players in a pinch like that. Personally, I need to see what he's capable of putting up before I play him. He put up 4 points in week 1, so I don't know anything about his ability to put up points.

 
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