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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (3 Viewers)

Eephus

Footballguy
Nov. 3 -- Deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents, fifth day after World Series

Nov. 10 -- Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers, 12th day after World Series

Nov. 10-12 -- General managers' meetings, Phoenix

Dec. 2 -- Last day for teams to offer 2015 contracts to unsigned players

Dec. 8 -- Hall of Fame golden era (1947-72) vote announced, San Diego

Dec. 8-11 -- Winter meetings, San Diego

2015

Jan. 13 -- Salary arbitration filing

Jan. 16 -- Salary arbitration figures exchanged

Feb. 1-21 -- Salary arbitration hearings

 
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I would like the Yankees to trade or cut every single member of the 25 man roster and start from scratch right down the batboys.

So who wants who?

 
Royals reportedly are going to decline Butler's 12mm option.

Cueto's 10mm option and Lackeys 0.5mm option both got picked up.

A-ROD ACTIVATED!!!

 
Mariners pick up Iwakuma's 7mm option (duh).

Angels pick up Street's 7mm option.

Nats turn down Rafael Soriano's 14mm option (duh).

Nats turn down Adam Laroche's 15mm option.

 
2-yr, 14 mil for Koji Uehera to stay with the BoSox.
Speier says it's 2/18mm, FYI.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/527928853919178754

That's pretty steep for any closer, much less an older one. Steamer projects 1.1 WAR for 2015, presumably it'd be south of 1.0 in 2016.
Yep. I'm pretty sure I got my info from that same tweet and typed 14 instead of 18. No reasonable explanation for that other than I'm dumb.

ETA: He'll be 40 in April. Didn't realize that he was that old. Yikes.

 
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2-yr, 14 mil for Koji Uehera to stay with the BoSox.
Speier says it's 2/18mm, FYI.

https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/527928853919178754

That's pretty steep for any closer, much less an older one. Steamer projects 1.1 WAR for 2015, presumably it'd be south of 1.0 in 2016.
Yep. I'm pretty sure I got my info from that same tweet and typed 14 instead of 18. No reasonable explanation for that other than I'm dumb.

ETA: He'll be 40 in April. Didn't realize that he was that old. Yikes.
Only 40? He's got plenty of good years left

 
How much will Shields get?
Story here is the Royals will offer him $90MM over 5 years to stay. So he will get at least $100MM from someone else.
I was surprised that he'll turn 33 before the end of the calendar year. I pegged him a couple of years younger for some reason.
He was a late bloomer. Drafted out of high school but didn't make the show until he was 24.
He's the same age as former Tampa Bay teammates Rocco Baldelli and Jorge Cantu who have been out of the game nearly long enough to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot.

 
1. Max Scherzer (RHP Tigers, 30): Scherzer won’t be winning a second consecutive Cy Young Award, but he was pretty much the same pitcher in 2014 that he was in 2013. In fact, he allowed 18 homers both seasons. His K/BB ratio went from 240/56 in 214 1/3 innings to 252/63 in 220 1/3 innings. Scherzer is practically assured of landing the biggest deal ever for a free agent pitcher, topping Zack Greinke’s six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers. A six-year, $168 million contract is the guess here.

2. Jon Lester (LHP Athletics, 31): Lester picked a great time to have a career year, finishing with a 2.46 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. His previous best ERA was a 3.21 mark in 2008, and his best WHIP was 1.20 in 2010. His strikeout rate also rebounded to past levels (7.3 K/9 IP in 2012, 7.5 in 2013, 9.0 in 2014). Though Lester isn’t as good of a bet as Scherzer for the short term, he seems like the more likely of the two to stay healthy and remain an asset through the end of his contract. Six years and $150 million isabout right for him. The Red Sox will try to get him back, but they’ll have to fight the Yankees and others for him. One bonus with Lester: he can’t get a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason and thus won’t cost his signing team a draft pick.

3. Yasmany Tomas (OF Cuba, 24): Signs point to Tomas becoming the richest Cuban defector yet, with a $100 million contract perhaps in the offing. He showed considerable offensively ability by hitting .298/.340/.581 as a 21-year-old and .289/.364/.538 as a 22-year-old in Cuba, though he faded to .286/.343/.444 in the offense-heavy league last season. There’s little doubt that Tomas will hit for power in the majors, though his on-base skills are in question, as is his defense in a corner outfield spot. From the sound of things, he could be the Phillies’ big addition this winter.

4. Hanley Ramirez (SS Dodgers, 31): Only two shortstops managed .800 OPSs last season: Troy Tulowitzki came in at 1.035 in 91 games before getting hurt and Ramirez finished at .817 in 128 games. Next on the list was Jhonny Peralta at .779. Of course, Ramirez isn’t much of a shortstop. He’s also had problems staying healthy the last two years. Ideally, Ramirez will sign as a third baseman this winter, though there aren’t many obvious fits for him there (Boston? The White Sox? San Francisco?). The Dodgers aren’t expected to make much of an effort to keep him. The Yankees could sign him as a shortstop with the idea of shifting him later. I could also see the Astros stepping up and making a big play for him if his market proves quieter than expected. His talent should earn him $120 million for six years, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up having to settle for a five-year, $80 million contract because of the position/injury issues.

5. James Shields (RHP Royals, 33): Shields doesn’t just make 30 starts every year: he’s racked up 33 or 34 in seven straight seasons. He’s never been hurt as a major leaguer, and while his strikeout rate has dipped some the last two years, he’s throwing harder than he used to with the Rays. Besides, he hasn’t needed to go for strikeouts with that outfield behind him. Shields’ rough postseason has cast doubts over whether he’ll get a nine-figure contract, but I’m guessing some team goes $100 million for five years. The Red Sox are getting talked up as a popular suitor. I imagine the Angels would love to have him if they can pull it off and stay under the luxury tax. The Cubs and Yankees could also make bids if they get spurned by Scherzer and Lester.
Top 150 free agents

 
Sounds like Toronto and Brewers working on a trade for Adam Lind

Edit rumors of Brewers sending Marco Estrada
Seems like a good trade for both clubs. The Brewers have some SP depth due to the emergence of Fiers and Nelson. 1B has been a hole in Milwaukee since Fielder left and the free agency of Aramis Ramirez means there's a big need for bats. Toronto always has a lot of pitchers but somehow always needs pitching.

 
Sounds like Toronto and Brewers working on a trade for Adam Lind

Edit rumors of Brewers sending Marco Estrada
Seems like a good trade for both clubs. The Brewers have some SP depth due to the emergence of Fiers and Nelson. 1B has been a hole in Milwaukee since Fielder left and the free agency of Aramis Ramirez means there's a big need for bats. Toronto always has a lot of pitchers but somehow always needs pitching.
Estrada is going to be a disaster in the AL East.
 
The Blue Jays also extended a $15.3M (US) qualifying offer to Melky Cabrera. He's one of those mid-range guys who is hurt by the current compensation system. I don't think it's worth it for a buying team to give up a first rounder in addition to paying market price for Melky.

Some player is eventually going to rethink the risk/reward and accept the qualifying offer. I realize that it's much better from Cabrera's perspective to be a FA at 30 than 31 but he could very well be the 2015 version of Morales and Drew.

I guess it's a no lose proposition for the Jays. 1/$15M isn't bad for a 3 win player and Toronto has nothing invested in Andy Dirks.

 
The Blue Jays also extended a $15.3M (US) qualifying offer to Melky Cabrera. He's one of those mid-range guys who is hurt by the current compensation system. I don't think it's worth it for a buying team to give up a first rounder in addition to paying market price for Melky.

Some player is eventually going to rethink the risk/reward and accept the qualifying offer. I realize that it's much better from Cabrera's perspective to be a FA at 30 than 31 but he could very well be the 2015 version of Morales and Drew.

I guess it's a no lose proposition for the Jays. 1/$15M isn't bad for a 3 win player and Toronto has nothing invested in Andy Dirks.
Have to figure Ervin Santana is in a similar boat here after getting the QO from the Braves.

 
The Brewers and Aramis Ramirez reached agreement on their $14M mutual option for 2015. That's one less 3B on the market.

It seems like Ramirez could have made an easy $1.3M by declining his half of the option and taking the qualifying offer when extended.

 

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