Sarnoff
Footballguy
Let's have some fun with the new batch of shows this year. This contest includes only NEW Fall Network Television shows. The full list of eligible shows is included below. This is based on a contest run by one of the guys at MediaWeek.
Here's the setup:
1) SELECT AND RANK FIVE SHOWS from the list below. This year, lists must contain no more than three Red shows and one to three Green shows. You can choose any combination within that limit (for example: 3 red/1 orange/1 green, 1 red/3 orange/1 green, 3 red/2 green, 3 orange/2 green, 2 orange/3 green, etc. As long as you have at least 1-3 green shows (not 0, 4, or 5) and 0-3 (not 4 or 5) red shows in your list, your entry is valid).
TIEBREAKER QUESTION: "When will the first cancellation of one of the shows in the contest occur, based on last original episode air date prior to cancellation?" Select a date between 9/16/2013 and 5/21/2014, inclusive. Closest date, over or under, breaks any ties. A roster that fails to include the Tiebreaker Answer automatically loses a tie with any entry or entries including a tiebreaker.
2) Post your roster in this thread. One roster per poster. A successive roster post invalidates a prior entry. Include your Tiebreaker Answer with your post. RANK YOUR SHOWS IN ORDER IN YOUR ROSTER POST, with your MOST LIKELY to be canceled show FIRST, and then in descending order. You do not have to list a Red show above an Orange or a Green show, for example. Scoring Bonuses will take your Show Ranking into account.
3) Deadline for entries is September 16th at 8AM PDT. All entries must be posted by then. There is NO ACTION on any show canceled before the deadline. Posters may choose to make a replacement pick in case such an early cancelation occurs, and will have until 8PM PDT on 9/16 to repick. Repicks must still be shows not yet canceled. Repicks may be inserted into the existing ranking at any position (need not be in the same slot, but the other four shows must still be in the same relative order to each other with the new show appearing anywhere in the ranking).
4) Contest scoring accumulates through the final night of May Sweeps (May 21, 2014). The "cancellation date" for a show is the last original episode airdate prior to the network announcing the removal of a show from the regular primetime schedule, and cessation of show production (a show removed from the fall schedule, but which continues production for relaunch on a regular primetime night later in the scoring period with original episodes is not considered canceled. Neither is a change of timeslot a cancellation. However, shows announced as removed from the schedule, but with original episodes airing irregularly as part of a contractual obligation after production has halted, typically but not necessarily on weekends, afternoons, or during holiday periods, (also known as "burn off") are still considered canceled as of the last original air date prior to the network announcement). Shows not renewed for a second season by the final date of the contest are considered canceled, provided the show's network has presented a 2014-15 TV season schedule without the show at an Upfront Presentation before the end of the contest scoring period. Dated cancellation confirmation (not "rumors") posts from Deadline.com will be used to determine the network announcement dates. TV Media Insights, TheFutonCritic, and the MediaWeek websites, or other such television industry news sources, may also be used at the official scorer's discretion (that's me). The official scorer may change, clarify, or modify rules at his own discretion at any time, and may otherwise rule on any discrepancies, confusions, or other points of order as they arise. All decisions are final. The contest is presented in AS-IS condition with no warranties, guarantees, or refunds.
SCORING:
1) Points Based on Show Ranking: Based on the order of shows listed in your post, you will earn points regardless of when they get canceled. If the show you rank #1 gets canceled at any time during the scoring period, you'll earn 50 points (#2: 40 points, #3: 30 points, #4: 20 points, #5: 10 points).
2) Bonus Based on Odds: Bonus points are attached to each show on the list below, based on the likelihood of it surviving for renewal.
3) Unique Show Points: You'll earn bonus points for selecting shows not commonly chosen by the other players. The formula to determine Unique Show Points for a show is: [(Number of participants - 1) - (Number of participants picking this show)] x 0.20
4) Duplicate Rank Penalty: Participants selecting a canceled show will be penalized points for shows that are commonly selected by other players, but only if those other players also rank the show the same in their roster. So if 10 people select the same show, but nine rank it #1 and one player ranks it #2, the nine with the same rank will lose some points, while the other player will not be penalized. The formula to determine the penalty is: [(Number of other participants picking this show and ranking it the same)] x 0.20
5) Aired Episodes Points Bonus: The less episodes that air, the more points will be earned. Each show starts with a base of 25 points. One point is deducted from the bonus for each original episode that airs before cancellation ("burn off" episodes airing irregularly after the cancellation announcement are not considered in determining this bonus).
6) First Seven Canceled Bonus: The first seven canceled shows get the following bonuses:
* First show = 100% bonus (2.00 multiplier)
* Second show = 85% bonus (x1.85)
* Third show = 70% bonus (x1.70)
* Fourth show = 55% bonus (x1.55)
* Fifth show = 40% bonus (x1.40)
* Sixth show = 25% bonus (x1.25)
* Seventh show = 10% bonus (x1.10)
Eighth show or later gets no bonus, but otherwise retains all the previously established points (1.00 multiplier).
If more than one show is canceled as of the same day, this is considered a tie and percentages will be averaged. For example, if the cancellation date of the first two shows of the season occurs on the same date, each of the two shows will receive a bonus of 92.5% (x1.925).
SCORING FORMULA: The calculation method for scoring shows on your roster is:
[ Points Based on Show Ranking + Bonus Based on Odds + Unique Show Points + Aired Episodes Bonus Points - Duplicate Rank Penalty ] x First Seven Canceled Bonus multiplier
NEW FALL 2013 TV SHOWS
(Select and Rank five shows from the below, with at least one Green show and no more than 3 red shows on your roster.)
RED GROUP
Enlisted (FOX). Fridays at 930PM. Premieres 1/10/14 (Note change). Odds 10:1, Bonus +0
Sleepy Hollow (FOX). Mondays at 9PM. Premieres 9/16. Odds 10:1, Bonus +0
Lucky 7 (ABC). Tuesdays at 10PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 9:1, Bonus +3
Betrayal (ABC). Sundays at 10PM. Premieres 9/29. Odds 9:1, Bonus +3
We Are Men (CBS). Mondays at 830PM. Premieres 9/30. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland (ABC). Thursdays at 930PM. Premieres 10/10. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Dads (FOX). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 9/17. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Trophy Wife (ABC). Tuesdays at 930PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 7:1, Bonus +9
The Crazy Ones (CBS). Thursdays at 9PM. Premieres 9/26. Odds 7:1, Bonus +9
ORANGE GROUP
Dracula (NBC). Fridays at 10PM. Premieres 10/25. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Reign (CW). Tuesdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/17. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Ironside (NBC). Wednesdays at 10PM. Premieres 10/2. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
The Goldbergs (ABC). Tuesdays at 9PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Junior Masterchef (FOX). Fridays at 8PM. Premieres 9/27. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Super Fun Night (ABC). Wednesdays at 930PM. Premieres 10/2. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX). Tuesdays at 830PM. Premieres 9/17. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Hostages (CBS). Mondays at 10PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC). Thursdays at 930PM. Premieres 9/26. Odds 4:1, Bonus +18
Welcome to the Family (NBC). Thursdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 4:1, Bonus +18
GREEN GROUP
Back in the Game (ABC). Wednesdays at 830PM. Premieres 9/25. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Sean Saves the World (NBC). Thursdays at 9PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Almost Human (FOX). Mondays at 8PM. Premieres 11/4. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Millers (CBS). Thursdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Originals (CW). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 10/8. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Tomorrow People (CW). Wednesdays at 9PM. Premieres 10/9. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Mom (CBS). Mondays at 930PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Blacklist (NBC). Mondays at 10PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 2:1, Bonus +24
Remember, you must have one to three roster picks from the green group, and zero to three shows from the red group on your roster. The contest runs through May sweeps (5/21/14). Your entry is a ranking of five of the above new TV shows, most likely to be canceled first. Please also include a tiebreaker answer.
Good luck!
Here's the setup:
1) SELECT AND RANK FIVE SHOWS from the list below. This year, lists must contain no more than three Red shows and one to three Green shows. You can choose any combination within that limit (for example: 3 red/1 orange/1 green, 1 red/3 orange/1 green, 3 red/2 green, 3 orange/2 green, 2 orange/3 green, etc. As long as you have at least 1-3 green shows (not 0, 4, or 5) and 0-3 (not 4 or 5) red shows in your list, your entry is valid).
TIEBREAKER QUESTION: "When will the first cancellation of one of the shows in the contest occur, based on last original episode air date prior to cancellation?" Select a date between 9/16/2013 and 5/21/2014, inclusive. Closest date, over or under, breaks any ties. A roster that fails to include the Tiebreaker Answer automatically loses a tie with any entry or entries including a tiebreaker.
2) Post your roster in this thread. One roster per poster. A successive roster post invalidates a prior entry. Include your Tiebreaker Answer with your post. RANK YOUR SHOWS IN ORDER IN YOUR ROSTER POST, with your MOST LIKELY to be canceled show FIRST, and then in descending order. You do not have to list a Red show above an Orange or a Green show, for example. Scoring Bonuses will take your Show Ranking into account.
3) Deadline for entries is September 16th at 8AM PDT. All entries must be posted by then. There is NO ACTION on any show canceled before the deadline. Posters may choose to make a replacement pick in case such an early cancelation occurs, and will have until 8PM PDT on 9/16 to repick. Repicks must still be shows not yet canceled. Repicks may be inserted into the existing ranking at any position (need not be in the same slot, but the other four shows must still be in the same relative order to each other with the new show appearing anywhere in the ranking).
4) Contest scoring accumulates through the final night of May Sweeps (May 21, 2014). The "cancellation date" for a show is the last original episode airdate prior to the network announcing the removal of a show from the regular primetime schedule, and cessation of show production (a show removed from the fall schedule, but which continues production for relaunch on a regular primetime night later in the scoring period with original episodes is not considered canceled. Neither is a change of timeslot a cancellation. However, shows announced as removed from the schedule, but with original episodes airing irregularly as part of a contractual obligation after production has halted, typically but not necessarily on weekends, afternoons, or during holiday periods, (also known as "burn off") are still considered canceled as of the last original air date prior to the network announcement). Shows not renewed for a second season by the final date of the contest are considered canceled, provided the show's network has presented a 2014-15 TV season schedule without the show at an Upfront Presentation before the end of the contest scoring period. Dated cancellation confirmation (not "rumors") posts from Deadline.com will be used to determine the network announcement dates. TV Media Insights, TheFutonCritic, and the MediaWeek websites, or other such television industry news sources, may also be used at the official scorer's discretion (that's me). The official scorer may change, clarify, or modify rules at his own discretion at any time, and may otherwise rule on any discrepancies, confusions, or other points of order as they arise. All decisions are final. The contest is presented in AS-IS condition with no warranties, guarantees, or refunds.
SCORING:
1) Points Based on Show Ranking: Based on the order of shows listed in your post, you will earn points regardless of when they get canceled. If the show you rank #1 gets canceled at any time during the scoring period, you'll earn 50 points (#2: 40 points, #3: 30 points, #4: 20 points, #5: 10 points).
2) Bonus Based on Odds: Bonus points are attached to each show on the list below, based on the likelihood of it surviving for renewal.
3) Unique Show Points: You'll earn bonus points for selecting shows not commonly chosen by the other players. The formula to determine Unique Show Points for a show is: [(Number of participants - 1) - (Number of participants picking this show)] x 0.20
4) Duplicate Rank Penalty: Participants selecting a canceled show will be penalized points for shows that are commonly selected by other players, but only if those other players also rank the show the same in their roster. So if 10 people select the same show, but nine rank it #1 and one player ranks it #2, the nine with the same rank will lose some points, while the other player will not be penalized. The formula to determine the penalty is: [(Number of other participants picking this show and ranking it the same)] x 0.20
5) Aired Episodes Points Bonus: The less episodes that air, the more points will be earned. Each show starts with a base of 25 points. One point is deducted from the bonus for each original episode that airs before cancellation ("burn off" episodes airing irregularly after the cancellation announcement are not considered in determining this bonus).
6) First Seven Canceled Bonus: The first seven canceled shows get the following bonuses:
* First show = 100% bonus (2.00 multiplier)
* Second show = 85% bonus (x1.85)
* Third show = 70% bonus (x1.70)
* Fourth show = 55% bonus (x1.55)
* Fifth show = 40% bonus (x1.40)
* Sixth show = 25% bonus (x1.25)
* Seventh show = 10% bonus (x1.10)
Eighth show or later gets no bonus, but otherwise retains all the previously established points (1.00 multiplier).
If more than one show is canceled as of the same day, this is considered a tie and percentages will be averaged. For example, if the cancellation date of the first two shows of the season occurs on the same date, each of the two shows will receive a bonus of 92.5% (x1.925).
SCORING FORMULA: The calculation method for scoring shows on your roster is:
[ Points Based on Show Ranking + Bonus Based on Odds + Unique Show Points + Aired Episodes Bonus Points - Duplicate Rank Penalty ] x First Seven Canceled Bonus multiplier
NEW FALL 2013 TV SHOWS
(Select and Rank five shows from the below, with at least one Green show and no more than 3 red shows on your roster.)
RED GROUP
Enlisted (FOX). Fridays at 930PM. Premieres 1/10/14 (Note change). Odds 10:1, Bonus +0
Sleepy Hollow (FOX). Mondays at 9PM. Premieres 9/16. Odds 10:1, Bonus +0
Lucky 7 (ABC). Tuesdays at 10PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 9:1, Bonus +3
Betrayal (ABC). Sundays at 10PM. Premieres 9/29. Odds 9:1, Bonus +3
We Are Men (CBS). Mondays at 830PM. Premieres 9/30. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland (ABC). Thursdays at 930PM. Premieres 10/10. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Dads (FOX). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 9/17. Odds 8:1, Bonus +6
Trophy Wife (ABC). Tuesdays at 930PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 7:1, Bonus +9
The Crazy Ones (CBS). Thursdays at 9PM. Premieres 9/26. Odds 7:1, Bonus +9
ORANGE GROUP
Dracula (NBC). Fridays at 10PM. Premieres 10/25. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Reign (CW). Tuesdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/17. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Ironside (NBC). Wednesdays at 10PM. Premieres 10/2. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
The Goldbergs (ABC). Tuesdays at 9PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 6:1, Bonus +12
Junior Masterchef (FOX). Fridays at 8PM. Premieres 9/27. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Super Fun Night (ABC). Wednesdays at 930PM. Premieres 10/2. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (FOX). Tuesdays at 830PM. Premieres 9/17. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
Hostages (CBS). Mondays at 10PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 5:1, Bonus +15
The Michael J. Fox Show (NBC). Thursdays at 930PM. Premieres 9/26. Odds 4:1, Bonus +18
Welcome to the Family (NBC). Thursdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 4:1, Bonus +18
GREEN GROUP
Back in the Game (ABC). Wednesdays at 830PM. Premieres 9/25. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Sean Saves the World (NBC). Thursdays at 9PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Almost Human (FOX). Mondays at 8PM. Premieres 11/4. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Millers (CBS). Thursdays at 830PM. Premieres 10/3. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 9/24. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Originals (CW). Tuesdays at 8PM. Premieres 10/8. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Tomorrow People (CW). Wednesdays at 9PM. Premieres 10/9. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
Mom (CBS). Mondays at 930PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 3:1, Bonus +21
The Blacklist (NBC). Mondays at 10PM. Premieres 9/23. Odds 2:1, Bonus +24
Remember, you must have one to three roster picks from the green group, and zero to three shows from the red group on your roster. The contest runs through May sweeps (5/21/14). Your entry is a ranking of five of the above new TV shows, most likely to be canceled first. Please also include a tiebreaker answer.
Good luck!
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