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Post Combine Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Fantasy Chef
- Start date
Also, Beckham seemed to beat up the little guys; only 2 TD against SEC teams this season (and his only other one of his CAREER came against Kentucky 2 years ago), and they were both in the same game (Miss St.)I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to me
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Can you clarify your post? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make but I am interested.Also, Beckham seemed to beat up the little guys; only 2 TD against SEC teams this season (and his only other one of his CAREER came against Kentucky 2 years ago), and they were both in the same game (Miss St.)I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to me
Xue
Footballguy
If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to me
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to me
Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.
Xue
Footballguy
Lee and Moncrief are both bodycatchers. Neither guy "can catch". Lee dominated right from the start as 19/20-year old Freshman. Moncrief was 20 right before the start of his Junior season.Rhythmdoctor said:I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.Xue said:If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".Rhythmdoctor said:I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to meGandalf said:
Proven production? Uh...using total stats is very misleading. Their "production" is very similar if you're looking at the correct, meaningful stats/metrics: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bji5Gu-CMAAbby3.png
They are both also weak in the RedZone.
Give the the bigger and younger version. That's Moncrief.
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ZWK
Footballguy
Lee's 2012 receiving stats were way better than Moncrief's (and 2012 was the best statistical season for each of them).Lee and Moncrief are both bodycatchers. Neither guy "can catch". Lee dominated right from the start as 19/20-year old Freshman. Moncrief was 20 right before the start of his Junior season.Rhythmdoctor said:I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.Xue said:If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".Rhythmdoctor said:I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to meGandalf said:
Proven production? Uh...using total stats is very misleading. Their "production" is very similar if you're looking at the correct, meaningful stats/metrics: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bji5Gu-CMAAbby3.png
They are both also weak in the RedZone.
Give the the bigger and younger version. That's Moncrief.
Lee accounted for 47% of his team's receiving yards and had better efficiency numbers (e.g., yards per target) than Moncrief despite his heavy usage. He was 2nd in the nation in number of 40+ yard receptions and 3rd in receiving TDs. I have about a dozen different receiving metrics in this spreadsheet, many of which are per target or relative to the team's totals, and in 2012 Lee outperformed Moncrief on all but one of them (Moncrief had 42% of his team's receiving TDs vs. 36% for Lee, but Lee had more TDs and a larger percentage of his team's total offensive TDs).
I have Lee ranked ahead of Cooks as the most productive college receiver in this draft class. (That does not mean that he is my top WR prospect in this draft class, just that he had the most total career production on stats which I suspect are predictive of NFL success. There are also issues of size, speed, hands, etc. to take into account.)
Xue
Footballguy
I prefer to compare players based on age, not "year".Lee's 2012 receiving stats were way better than Moncrief's (and 2012 was the best statistical season for each of them).Lee and Moncrief are both bodycatchers. Neither guy "can catch". Lee dominated right from the start as 19/20-year old Freshman. Moncrief was 20 right before the start of his Junior season.Rhythmdoctor said:I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.Xue said:If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".Rhythmdoctor said:I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to meGandalf said:
Proven production? Uh...using total stats is very misleading. Their "production" is very similar if you're looking at the correct, meaningful stats/metrics: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bji5Gu-CMAAbby3.png
They are both also weak in the RedZone.
Give the the bigger and younger version. That's Moncrief.
Lee accounted for 47% of his team's receiving yards and had better efficiency numbers (e.g., yards per target) than Moncrief despite his heavy usage. He was 2nd in the nation in number of 40+ yard receptions and 3rd in receiving TDs. I have about a dozen different receiving metrics in this spreadsheet, many of which are per target or relative to the team's totals, and in 2012 Lee outperformed Moncrief on all but one of them (Moncrief had 42% of his team's receiving TDs vs. 36% for Lee, but Lee had more TDs and a larger percentage of his team's total offensive TDs).
I have Lee ranked ahead of Cooks as the most productive college receiver in this draft class. (That does not mean that he is my top WR prospect in this draft class, just that he had the most total career production on stats which I suspect are predictive of NFL success. There are also issues of size, speed, hands, etc. to take into account.)
ZWK
Footballguy
I was comparing them based on their best season - Lee's statistically best season (which was 2012) vs. Moncrief's statistically best season (which was 2012). Lee's was a lot better. Lee's second best statistical season (2011) was also a lot better than Moncrief's second best statistical season (2013), and it was even better than Moncrief's statistically best season (2012).I prefer to compare players based on age, not "year".Lee's 2012 receiving stats were way better than Moncrief's (and 2012 was the best statistical season for each of them).Lee and Moncrief are both bodycatchers. Neither guy "can catch". Lee dominated right from the start as 19/20-year old Freshman. Moncrief was 20 right before the start of his Junior season.Rhythmdoctor said:I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.Xue said:If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".Rhythmdoctor said:I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to meGandalf said:
Proven production? Uh...using total stats is very misleading. Their "production" is very similar if you're looking at the correct, meaningful stats/metrics: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bji5Gu-CMAAbby3.png
They are both also weak in the RedZone.
Give the the bigger and younger version. That's Moncrief.
Lee accounted for 47% of his team's receiving yards and had better efficiency numbers (e.g., yards per target) than Moncrief despite his heavy usage. He was 2nd in the nation in number of 40+ yard receptions and 3rd in receiving TDs. I have about a dozen different receiving metrics in this spreadsheet, many of which are per target or relative to the team's totals, and in 2012 Lee outperformed Moncrief on all but one of them (Moncrief had 42% of his team's receiving TDs vs. 36% for Lee, but Lee had more TDs and a larger percentage of his team's total offensive TDs).
I have Lee ranked ahead of Cooks as the most productive college receiver in this draft class. (That does not mean that he is my top WR prospect in this draft class, just that he had the most total career production on stats which I suspect are predictive of NFL success. There are also issues of size, speed, hands, etc. to take into account.)
Xue
Footballguy
I understand that. But the difference isn't huge either way. Overall the metrics are close enough where there's a reasonable debate between the two even though they may not "look similar on tape".I was comparing them based on their best season - Lee's statistically best season (which was 2012) vs. Moncrief's statistically best season (which was 2012). Lee's was a lot better. Lee's second best statistical season (2011) was also a lot better than Moncrief's second best statistical season (2013), and it was even better than Moncrief's statistically best season (2012).I prefer to compare players based on age, not "year".Lee's 2012 receiving stats were way better than Moncrief's (and 2012 was the best statistical season for each of them).Lee and Moncrief are both bodycatchers. Neither guy "can catch". Lee dominated right from the start as 19/20-year old Freshman. Moncrief was 20 right before the start of his Junior season.Rhythmdoctor said:I think Lee can catch though, that's why he's ahead of Moncrief. Lee is also a Biletnikoff winner. Lee dominated right from the start and was hobbled this past season. Way more proven production from Lee.Every player is measured individually by me but I take everything into account, including historical trends etc… I do think the new NFL is allowing for more variance among what makes up a WR1. It's becoming more common to have small WRs produce elite stats. I'm not just a "metrics" analyst. Everything matters, essentially.Xue said:If you're going for elite players and want to increase your chances of hitting, you should just cross off all "small" WRs. You especially should put Moncrief ahead of Lee, since he's basically just a bigger version of a "great athlete with great measurables who can't catch".Rhythmdoctor said:I'm not a fan of his low TD production. Also from a probability standpoint, there will only be "so many" short WRs who develop into WR1s from this group and since I have both Lee and Cooks ahead of him, that bumps him down a bit. I use a combination of probability, tape and metrics to rank players all pretty evenly. The chances of this class producing three different 5'10 WRs who become WR1 is going to be very low. My goal when drafting players is to acquire elite players - I'm not going for safe. Not sure if that makes any sense to you but it does to meGandalf said:
Proven production? Uh...using total stats is very misleading. Their "production" is very similar if you're looking at the correct, meaningful stats/metrics: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bji5Gu-CMAAbby3.png
They are both also weak in the RedZone.
Give the the bigger and younger version. That's Moncrief.
Lee accounted for 47% of his team's receiving yards and had better efficiency numbers (e.g., yards per target) than Moncrief despite his heavy usage. He was 2nd in the nation in number of 40+ yard receptions and 3rd in receiving TDs. I have about a dozen different receiving metrics in this spreadsheet, many of which are per target or relative to the team's totals, and in 2012 Lee outperformed Moncrief on all but one of them (Moncrief had 42% of his team's receiving TDs vs. 36% for Lee, but Lee had more TDs and a larger percentage of his team's total offensive TDs).
I have Lee ranked ahead of Cooks as the most productive college receiver in this draft class. (That does not mean that he is my top WR prospect in this draft class, just that he had the most total career production on stats which I suspect are predictive of NFL success. There are also issues of size, speed, hands, etc. to take into account.)
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I tend to think that some small part of the backlash against Lee because he is such a big name and known quantity.
Seems like many in the twitter/online draft community are like Indie Rock critics. If a band gets too big, then all of a sudden they are "commercial" and not cool or trendy anymore.
Can't help but think that if he had played at Appalachian St. or something, he'd be everyone's trendy sleeper pick that they loved and ranked in their top 5. There would be excuses for his injury plagued final season instead of everyone killing him for it.
As it is, I think the negativity has gone a bit too far. He was better than Robert Woods by a decent amount. And Woods looks like a pretty solid NFL starter. He may be a body catcher at times, but he has made a ton of plays. He timed more poorly than expected but he is an explosive athlete who plays fast. If you look at his track numbers in terms of long jump and stuff like that, you can see where the elite athleticism comes into play.
Seems like many in the twitter/online draft community are like Indie Rock critics. If a band gets too big, then all of a sudden they are "commercial" and not cool or trendy anymore.
Can't help but think that if he had played at Appalachian St. or something, he'd be everyone's trendy sleeper pick that they loved and ranked in their top 5. There would be excuses for his injury plagued final season instead of everyone killing him for it.
As it is, I think the negativity has gone a bit too far. He was better than Robert Woods by a decent amount. And Woods looks like a pretty solid NFL starter. He may be a body catcher at times, but he has made a ton of plays. He timed more poorly than expected but he is an explosive athlete who plays fast. If you look at his track numbers in terms of long jump and stuff like that, you can see where the elite athleticism comes into play.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I'm glad you posted this and brought me back down to earth on Lee. I had Lee ranked in my top 3 pre-combine and I think I've let his worse-than-expected 40 time effect my rankings too much. It's funny how sensitive one's rankings can be to a new day. Until the NFL draft, it's hard to feel confident. The draft definitely helps clarify my rankings. So, yet another revision to my rankings - thanks for opening my eyes!
I'm also bumping Brandin Cooks up another slot, now my #2 WR as well as Allen Robinson up to #3 (who I once favored over everyone). I'm also knocking Evans down a few slots as a result. Your post prompted me to go back and re-watch some game tape on these guys to remind myself why I liked them in the first place and I've adjusted accordingly. The list below puts less weight on the combine and more on what I see in games. I consider 1-5 my tier 1, which means Adams dropped out of tier 1 and into the top spot in tier 2. My 10th WR, Bryant, is alone in tier 3. I'll be happy with anyone in tier 1, tbh. I'm almost indifferent on everyone in my top 5.
- Sammy Watkins
- Brandin Cooks
- Allen Robinson
- Mike Evans
- Marqise Lee
- Davante Adams
- Jordan Matthews
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
- Donte Moncrief
- Martavis Bryant
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
That seems to be an ineffective way of making up your rankings (your tiers I mean). At least in my experience when you start grouping more than 3-4 players in a tier, it becomes too crowded. Sounds to me you're saying you view everyone in your 1st tier as relatively the same which is an insult to guys like Watkins/Evans who are in a tier themselves. My rankings are pretty different than yours so maybe I am biased towards my own, but I can't see how you can bunch all of those guys in 1 tier, leave Beckham out of it, then have a tier with 1 single person in it... makes 0 sense to me. What is the point of having a 3rd tier with 1 person in it? Or did you just do a top10 and you have more guys in that tier3 just didn't bother to list them?
I haven't fully finished my rankings yet pre-draft but I have my top 4 that I am perfectly comfortable on, but I by no means view #4 (or even #3 for that fact) as interchangeable with my #1/#2.
I haven't fully finished my rankings yet pre-draft but I have my top 4 that I am perfectly comfortable on, but I by no means view #4 (or even #3 for that fact) as interchangeable with my #1/#2.
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cstu
Footballguy
This is how I look at it if you give a assign a numerical rating to each player:
90
90
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80
80
80
80
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70
-------------
60
60
cstu
Footballguy
What's your reasoning behind ranking Robinson higher than Evans?
I'm glad you posted this and brought me back down to earth on Lee. I had Lee ranked in my top 3 pre-combine and I think I've let his worse-than-expected 40 time effect my rankings too much. It's funny how sensitive one's rankings can be to a new day. Until the NFL draft, it's hard to feel confident. The draft definitely helps clarify my rankings. So, yet another revision to my rankings - thanks for opening my eyes!
I'm also bumping Brandin Cooks up another slot, now my #2 WR as well as Allen Robinson up to #3 (who I once favored over everyone). I'm also knocking Evans down a few slots as a result. Your post prompted me to go back and re-watch some game tape on these guys to remind myself why I liked them in the first place and I've adjusted accordingly. The list below puts less weight on the combine and more on what I see in games. I consider 1-5 my tier 1, which means Adams dropped out of tier 1 and into the top spot in tier 2. My 10th WR, Bryant, is alone in tier 3. I'll be happy with anyone in tier 1, tbh. I'm almost indifferent on everyone in my top 5.
- Sammy Watkins
- Brandin Cooks
- Allen Robinson
- Mike Evans
- Marqise Lee
- Davante Adams
- Jordan Matthews
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
- Donte Moncrief
- Martavis Bryant
cstu
Footballguy
Lee is a tricky one to slot. The biggest knock on him is his speed, but the rest of his tests were good. Production-wise, Lee had two seasons (FR and SO) better than any of Beckham's. Lee's best season was better than Cooks' last year and Lee had a better freshman year than either of Cooks' first two years.
This is how I see them:
Lee - production (9/10), size (5/10), athleticism (6/10), hands (7/10)
Beckham- production (7/10), size (7/10), athleticism (8/10), hands (8/10)
- docked his production since he never had more than 57 catches, only 12 career TD's and one year over 750 yards
Cooks- production (9/10), size (6/10), athleticism (9/10), hands (8/10)
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I have a hard time ranking Beckham very high. I don't see what he does that well. He's not blazing fast, he's not big, he hasn't had great production. I think I'll pass and let someone else take him.
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
Beckham is just a clean prospect. He runs good routes, he catches the ball well and is pretty explosive after the catch. He is also not a "mighty mite WR" which would downgrade him. There is a lot to like about Beckham's film.
Xue
Footballguy
He timed well in the 40 and has elite agility and change of direction that showed up in the shuttle and 3-cone. You've got to look at his production in context. I think when you play with another talented WR that's projected to go in the first 3 rounds, your numbers are gonna hurt a bit.
Just watch the TCU game when he's being covered by Jason Verrett, a top 3 CB in this draft.
cstu
Footballguy
Thought about that after seeing some drops but he still catches almost everything thrown his way. It's tough to average 10 catches a game if you don't have good hands. Maybe 8 is a little generous and his hands are comparable to Lee.
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
Well said. Also, 4.43 speed isn't slow either. Quickness in and out of breaks for WR is often under-discussed in favor of 40 times. As Mike Mayok often says "he is quicker than fast" which is not derogatory - it is often a compliment. The vast majority of plays in the NFL happen within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage where quickness wins over long speed.
Xue
Footballguy
At best, he's #1. You can rank the order of the top 3-4 anyway you want. It's pretty close. People are scared off by Verrett's size to rank him #1.
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
I just finished my top20 overall and it's based on my leagues which are 10 team 2QB/3WR/3RB/2TE/1FLEX so that is the reasoning for some differences. I just want to post them now that I've finalized it and get it out there is all. Opinions welcomed. The only real trouble I had coming to this was where exactly was the differences to me between Sanky/Seastrunk and then if I wanted either Teddy/Blake to be in front of them as well.
Mike Evans - WR
Sammy Watkins - WR
Carlos Hyde - RB
Tre Mason - RB
Odell Beckham - WR
Eric Ebron - TE
Jordan Matthews - WR
Bishop Sankey - RB
Teddy Bridgewater - QB
Blake Bortels - QB
Lache Seastrunk - RB
Isaiah Crowell - RB
Ka'Deem Carey - RB
Martavis Bryant - WR
Charles Sims - RB
Marquis Lee - WR
Allen Robinson - WR
Kelvin Benjamin - WR
Storm Johnson - RB
Donte Moncrief - WR
Noteable people not on my list:
Johnny Manziel - QB - I want nothing to do with him. When I first made my list he was right there with the other QB's, and I ended up constantly sliding him down until I finally just took him off completely
Jeremy Hill - RB - He is actually my #21 (right now) just not convinced he is worth a high pick
Derek Carr - QB - I actually like Carr and he may sneak into my top15-20 after the draft is done but as of now doesn't make the cut
Terrance West - RB - Underrated but I think the hype will drive his value up to early 2nd which I believe is too early
Mike Evans - WR
Sammy Watkins - WR
Carlos Hyde - RB
Tre Mason - RB
Odell Beckham - WR
Eric Ebron - TE
Jordan Matthews - WR
Bishop Sankey - RB
Teddy Bridgewater - QB
Blake Bortels - QB
Lache Seastrunk - RB
Isaiah Crowell - RB
Ka'Deem Carey - RB
Martavis Bryant - WR
Charles Sims - RB
Marquis Lee - WR
Allen Robinson - WR
Kelvin Benjamin - WR
Storm Johnson - RB
Donte Moncrief - WR
Noteable people not on my list:
Johnny Manziel - QB - I want nothing to do with him. When I first made my list he was right there with the other QB's, and I ended up constantly sliding him down until I finally just took him off completely
Jeremy Hill - RB - He is actually my #21 (right now) just not convinced he is worth a high pick
Derek Carr - QB - I actually like Carr and he may sneak into my top15-20 after the draft is done but as of now doesn't make the cut
Terrance West - RB - Underrated but I think the hype will drive his value up to early 2nd which I believe is too early
GeeYouknit
Footballguy
That gave me a good laugh Milkman. As for Cooks I have him in that 20-25 range, he is yet another person I just can't force myself to put higher. I tend to lean towards "ideal size" when it comes to WR's and Cooks is explosive yes. Just for comparisons sake to Tavon Austin I had him at #12 last year and Cooks is not as good as Austin was coming out to me which justifies my lower ranking.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
- Sammy Watkins
- Allen Robinson
- Davante Adams
- Mike Evans
- Brandin Cooks
- Odell Beckham, Jr.
- Jordan Matthews
- Marqise Lee
- Cody Latimer
- Donte Moncrief
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
And comparatively low on Evans. I mean, you're basically going to want Adams to do the same thing Evans is capable of, because of his hands and catch radius on tape, but he's 4-5 inches shorter.
Xue
Footballguy
Adams is one of the best Redzone guys among the 6'-6'1" WRs. Much better than these two "bigger" guys: Jordan Matthews (who is taller and has a massive wingspan) and Donte Moncrief (who is heaver, faster, and had a great vertical).
He's the type of WR you just throw it up to and let him adjust to the ball.
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I love Robinson's tape. To my eyes, he's the most elusive WR in this class as far as RAC and he's big. The only red flag was his slow combine number but literally every other thing about him shines more than the other WRs. Here are my "pros" for A-Rob:
Best vision when RAC of the class
He's "big"at 6-2 and 28 BMI
He was a semi-finalist (top 10) for Biletnikoff award
Led Big 10 in receptions and yards for 2 straight seasons
39 inch vertical, 127 inch broad jump and 4.00 20 yd shuttle are elite metrics
He accounted for over 40% of his teams receptions and receiving yards
Cons:
Ran a 4.60 40 at the combine
When a guy checks every box including the eye test (I trust my eye), I have no choice but to rank him in my 1st tier. I literally can't decide between my top 3. I had Adams as my #1 2 months ago and Watkins at 3 or 4. The only thing I do know is my top 3 is solidified in my mind. The draft could change that but I doubt it. I'm a huge fan of each of those top 3 equally.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I think Adams is much more athletic. I'm not confident in Evans ability to take it to the next level. He's a slower Michael Floyd. I like Evans' youth and subsequent upside but he disappeared in some games. Davante put up 38 TDs in 2 seasons. I'm not in a typing mood, so I will just link what I pointed out back in February about Adams. Dude was a beast in college, regardless of the knock on his competition.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
The other thing to be cautious of on Evans was his lower production number. It wasn't terrible but it wasn't great either. 20%/30%/30% of his teams receptions/yards/TDs, respectively, bringing his cumulative avg to 27%.
Adams by comparison was 28%/33%/48% with a cumulative production rate of 37%.
Since I was talking about Allen Robinson in an earlier post, his figures are 40%/46%/28%, with a cumulative production rate of 38%.
I do think Evans has a good chance of being a WR1 in the NFL, but I think Watkins/Robinson/Adams have better chance by a decent margin. There are a lot of 'big' WRs who have failed and those guys had elite metrics (Jon Baldwin as an example). I do like Evans' "my ball"mentality and I would love him at 4 but I think there's enough separation between my 3 and 4 to drop him down a tier.
Xue
Footballguy
I don't think Evans is much better. Considering he is 6'5", he SHOULD be better but he wasn't. Neither guy compares to Dez Bryant, though: http://lifesyourcupfb.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/adams-evans-benjamin-bryant-marshall-floyd-heat-map.png
Anything over .40 for RZTD% basically "very good to elite" and Dez had two seasons over .50.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is my pre NFL draft rankings for dynasty leagues 12 teams standard scoring with kick returns
Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
Tier 3 - Situation could push these players into the above tier. Otherwise watch list.
RB Isaiah Crowell
RB Terrance West
WR Martavis Bryant
QB Brett Smith
WR Robert Herron
WR Jeff Janis
RB Andre Williams
WR Kevin Norwood
WR Bruce Ellington
WR Dri Archer
RB Jerick McKinnon
RB Damien Williams
WR Shaquelle Evans
RB KaDeem Carey
WR Josh Huff
QB Tajh Boyd
WR Paul Richardson
QB David Fales
WR Jared Abbrederis
RB Storm Johnson
TE A.C Leonard
QB Logan Thomas
WR Brandon Coleman
QB Aaron Murray
WR Matt Hazel
TE Crockett Gillmore
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Stephen Houston
WR Cody Hoffman
QB Bryn Renner
WR Mike Davis
TE Crockett Gillmore
RB Marion Grice
WR Matt Hazel
TE Colt Lyerla
RB DeAnthony Thomas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Michael Campanaro
Tier 1 - 1st round rookie pick value
WR Sammy Watkins
WR Mike Evans
RB Bishop Sankey
WR Marqise Lee
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Odell Beckham Jr.
WR Brandin Cooks
TE Eric Ebron
WR Jordan Matthews
WR Davonte Adams
Tier 2 - Potential 1st round rookie pick value in a good situation. 2nd-3rd round value if not.
QB Johnny Manziel
RB Charles Sims
RB Tre Mason
TE Jace Amaro
WR Cody Latimer
WR Kelvin Benjamin
WR Donte Moncrief
RB Lache Seastrunk
QB Teddy Bridgewater
WR Allen Robinson
WR Jarvis Landry
RB Devonta Freeman
QB Blake Bortles
RB Jeremy Hill
QB Jimmy Garoppolo
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
QB Derek Carr
Tier 3 - Situation could push these players into the above tier. Otherwise watch list.
RB Isaiah Crowell
RB Terrance West
WR Martavis Bryant
QB Brett Smith
WR Robert Herron
WR Jeff Janis
RB Andre Williams
WR Kevin Norwood
WR Bruce Ellington
WR Dri Archer
RB Jerick McKinnon
RB Damien Williams
WR Shaquelle Evans
RB KaDeem Carey
WR Josh Huff
QB Tajh Boyd
WR Paul Richardson
QB David Fales
WR Jared Abbrederis
RB Storm Johnson
TE A.C Leonard
QB Logan Thomas
WR Brandon Coleman
QB Aaron Murray
WR Matt Hazel
TE Crockett Gillmore
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Stephen Houston
WR Cody Hoffman
QB Bryn Renner
WR Mike Davis
TE Crockett Gillmore
RB Marion Grice
WR Matt Hazel
TE Colt Lyerla
RB DeAnthony Thomas
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz
WR Michael Campanaro
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