Will Denver's schedule and improved D cut the offensive production (1 Viewer)

twistd · Jul 22, 2014

There are two things I am wondering about. The first is schedule. Denver played the NFC East in a down year for that division. According to PFF, the NFC East ranked 15th, 20th, 29th and 30th defensively. The Broncos play the NFC West this season. They ranked 1st, 3rd, 5th and 21st defensively. The Broncos scored 41, 52, 51, and 45 against the NFC East teams. According to PFF, the Broncos played 4 games against defenses rated in the top half of the league last year. This year they have 9 games against teams in the top half of the league, and 6 of those games are against the top 5 rated teams. Granted, defenses move up and down each year, but I think the NFC West defenses are all very good. I expect SF and Seattle to remain in the top 5 defensively. Arizona may drop some, but I expect St Louis to move up. So it is still going to be a very, very tough division to play.

I also think the the Broncos improved their own defense quite a bit. There biggest weakness was their pass defense. The addition of Demarcus Ware should help the pass rush, and the addition of TJ Ward and Talib should bolster the secondary. I think their defense will be much better than they were last year. But will that even matter? It seemed like the Broncos kept the pedal to the metal regardless of the game score.

I think there was bound to be some regression in the offense after the Broncos put up a historically good season. They scored more points than any NFL team in history. They were second in average yards per game. It was a fantastic season. To expect them to match that output is unrealistic. You would expect a regression of probably between 10% and 20% I would think. My question is how much do you think the tougher schedule, and the improved defense impacts the totals? And how much does all this impact fantasy values for this year?

need2know · Jul 22, 2014

Yes people buying for last year's stats are going to be mighty disappointed

FUBAR · Jul 22, 2014

The difference between playing the east and west really comes down to 2, maybe 3 games.

The presumably better defense only hurts if Peyton lets it. It could also give them more time with the ball.

Natural regression will mean more than either. Plus losing Decker and Moreno, although I do like Sanders.

twistd · Jul 22, 2014

FUBAR said:
The difference between playing the east and west really comes down to 2, maybe 3 games.

The presumably better defense only hurts if Peyton lets it. It could also give them more time with the ball.

Natural regression will mean more than either. Plus losing Decker and Moreno, although I do like Sanders.

I agree that regression is the more significant factor, but I think that the schedule is more important than you are suggesting. In West versus East, Seattle and SF are definitely a lot better than anyone in the East. I think either Stl or AZ are going to be a top 10 defense. That is a major difference in at least three games. In addition you have five other defenses outside of the NFC West that were in the top half of the league last year playing Denver this year. I'd say that Miami, Cincinnati, and Buffalo should all be above average defenses. Denver has all of them on the schedule. They again play KC twice. I definitely think KC takes a step back as far as record, but they have terrific defensive personnel. I just think that combining the schedule, and the natural regression, may cause more of a drop in stats for Manning and Company than people think.

Bronco Billy · Jul 22, 2014

People expecting a repeat of the best offensive arguably in NFL history are in for a let down. But an improved D only enhances DEN's options on O.

twistd · Jul 22, 2014

Bronco Billy said:
People expecting a repeat of the best offensive arguably in NFL history are in for a let down. But an improved D only enhances DEN's options on O.

That very well could be. Normally a bad defense forces teams to score more. But with the Broncos they seem to keep the pedal to the metal all the time. So you may be right, a better defense may give the offense the ball more. It is going to be fun to watch.

Hot Diggity Dog · Jul 23, 2014

12punch · Jul 23, 2014

twistd said:
FUBAR said:

The difference between playing the east and west really comes down to 2, maybe 3 games.

The presumably better defense only hurts if Peyton lets it. It could also give them more time with the ball.

Natural regression will mean more than either. Plus losing Decker and Moreno, although I do like Sanders.

Click to expand...

I agree that regression is the more significant factor, but I think that the schedule is more important than you are suggesting. In West versus East, Seattle and SF are definitely a lot better than anyone in the East. I think either Stl or AZ are going to be a top 10 defense. That is a major difference in at least three games. In addition you have five other defenses outside of the NFC West that were in the top half of the league last year playing Denver this year. I'd say that Miami, Cincinnati, and Buffalo should all be above average defenses. Denver has all of them on the schedule. They again play KC twice. I definitely think KC takes a step back as far as record, but they have terrific defensive personnel. I just think that combining the schedule, and the natural regression, may cause more of a drop in stats for Manning and Company than people think.

if there's such thing as a 'natural regression' the schedule is already part of it

tjnc09 · Jul 23, 2014

twistd said:
FUBAR said:

The difference between playing the east and west really comes down to 2, maybe 3 games.

The presumably better defense only hurts if Peyton lets it. It could also give them more time with the ball.

Natural regression will mean more than either. Plus losing Decker and Moreno, although I do like Sanders.

Click to expand...

I agree that regression is the more significant factor, but I think that the schedule is more important than you are suggesting. In West versus East, Seattle and SF are definitely a lot better than anyone in the East. I think either Stl or AZ are going to be a top 10 defense. That is a major difference in at least three games. In addition you have five other defenses outside of the NFC West that were in the top half of the league last year playing Denver this year. I'd say that Miami, Cincinnati, and Buffalo should all be above average defenses. Denver has all of them on the schedule. They again play KC twice. I definitely think KC takes a step back as far as record, but they have terrific defensive personnel. I just think that combi

Tanner9919 · Jul 24, 2014

SF defense will regress this year. they've played at an elite level for a long time..

Az will regress.perhaps more than people think.

St Louis *might* improve.

Seattle remains a very dominant defense..but, it's just one game on the schedule..

Denver can run with SF, would beat-down Az and crush St Louis..

Rams defense should be better, but not against Manning..come on now..

if Vegas lines were up right now , how many pts would Denver give against Az, St Louis, and SF?

I'd think something like -7 vs Az, -9 vs Rams, -2 vs. SF.

home or away, it doesn't matter.

I think Manning goes back to 36-40tds..lots of yards, lots of completions..same old Manning.

to answer the question will the new D and tougher schedule it cut their production, no.the schedule won't.the natural regression will..

if they played the exact same schedule as last year, Manning would manage 36-40tds..2013 was historic.

never has a record-setting performance been followed up by an equally good or better one the following year..Brady didn't do it, Manning didn't the first time around, OJ didn't, neither did LT2, ADP, Dickerson,etc..so Manning will come back to the pack somewhat..

at the end of the day, Manning, DT, JT, Ball, Welker will still produce at a very high level..Decker's departure offsets the tougher schedule - his 87 recs from last year will be redistributed..

Manning is still the #1 QB, DT arguably the #1 WR , certainly #2 WR after CJ , JT the #2 TE after Graham -( Gronk's health keeps him from being #2..)

Ball is consistently ranked as a top 5-8 RB..in other words, that offense is expected to remain atop the leaderboard in nearly every category..

you can now take your finger off the panic button

FUBAR · Jul 24, 2014

twistd said:
FUBAR said:

The difference between playing the east and west really comes down to 2, maybe 3 games.

The presumably better defense only hurts if Peyton lets it. It could also give them more time with the ball.

Natural regression will mean more than either. Plus losing Decker and Moreno, although I do like Sanders.

Click to expand...

I agree that regression is the more significant factor, but I think that the schedule is more important than you are suggesting. In West versus East, Seattle and SF are definitely a lot better than anyone in the East. I think either Stl or AZ are going to be a top 10 defense. That is a major difference in at least three games. In addition you have five other defenses outside of the NFC West that were in the top half of the league last year playing Denver this year. I'd say that Miami, Cincinnati, and Buffalo should all be above average defenses. Denver has all of them on the schedule. They again play KC twice. I definitely think KC takes a step back as far as record, but they have terrific defensive personnel. I just think that combining the schedule, and the natural regression, may cause more of a drop in stats for Manning and Company than people think.

Honestly I didn't look beyond the East/West difference. The Dolphins defense is not good.

But yes, all this adds up to the Broncos probably not setting another record.

Still think Peyton is the #1 QB, new record or not.

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Will Denver's schedule and improved D cut the offensive production (1 Viewer)

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