I know most people are hesitant on his value because of the Mark Sanchez / Tim Tebow predicament. But most people are ignoring the fact the Stephen Hill will likely 'never' be a complete receiver. They drafted him to fill the role Plaxico Burress and Braylon Edwards had the past couple of seasons. I know everyone is down on Sanchez's ability on as a passer but I believe value can be found.
In 2010, with Sanchez tossing the rock the combination of Edwards and Holmes put up:
53 Catches / 904 Yards / 7TD (Edwards)
52 Catches / 746 Yards / 6TD (Holmes)*
I'd say there is a definite chance New York could potentially foster 2 receivers with fantasy value. Braylon Edwards put up an astonishing 17.1YPC and I believe Hill fits that same mold; maybe even better. He isn't a a guy who will catch 100 balls in a season.
*Denotes that Holmes missed 4 games due to suspension.
In 2011, the combination of Burress and Holmes put up:
45 Catches / 612 Yards / 8TD (Burress)
51 Catches / 654 Yards / 8TD (Holmes)
7 of Burress' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.
4 of Holmes' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.
Those stats indicate that Sanchez preferred the big bodied Burress in the RZ last season. Stephen Hill stands tall at 6,4.
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Many people have concerns that the 'Tebow' package will stifle the overall production of Jets Offensive players but I disagree. I offer you Demaryius Thomas' stats last season coming off an injury:
32 Catches / 551 Yards / 4TD (Thomas)*
*Denotes that Thomas missed 5 games due to injury.
If we were to extend Thomas' stats over an entire season with Tebow he'd end up with.
46 Catches / 801 Yards / 6TD (Thomas)
Obviously not 'eye popping' numbers but any game Tebow got the ball to Thomas at least '3 times' the stats looked as follow:
3 Catches / 27 Yards / 1 Touchdown
4 Catches / 144 Yards / 2 Touchdowns
7 Catches / 78 Yards / 1 Touchdown
7 Catches / 116 Yards / 1 Touchdown
While it's true Tebow didn't pass much, when he did pass to Thomas they were 'BOOM' plays. Demaryius Thomas' YPC last season was a staggering 17.2. The best example of a 'BOOM' play is against the Steelers in the playoffs last year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zuUIhv8z3M
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So why exactly does all of this bode well for Hill?
1.) Burress caught 7RZ Touchdowns last season and that production has to go elsewhere. I'd say the best bet to pick up some of that slack would be a 6,4 target picked up in the 2nd Round.
2.) Maybe Tebow vultures a few of those RZ Touchdowns but I don't think it's likely we'll see Sanchez being pulled at the Goaline consistently. And IF he is pulled, Tebow threw just as many TDs in the RZ as he ran for (6 a piece).
3.) Santonio Holmes is no slouch at receiver and will draw the coverage that will allow Sanchez and Tebow to exploit Hill's size + speed. He's being asked to be a complementary receiver.
4.) Like Demaryius Thomas, Hill comes from Georgia Tech where he was asked to block on a consistent basis. For a team that wants to get back to the 'ground and pound', receivers that can block well are a must. This will pave his way into the starting line-up.
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What should we realistically expect?
I'd be happy if Hill put up:
40 Catches / 650 Yards / 6TD
They are NOT flashy numbers but totally in-reach for this Rookie. His real value relies on the fact that:
1.) He will be a RZ target.
2.) He has 'BOOM' play capability.
This is the type of player that might put up goose eggs for you weeks in a row but will suddenly go off for:
4 Catches / 116 Yards / 2 Touchdown
As a Rookie he will be the PERFECT bye-week filler.
In redraft he will be had for peanuts and in Dynasty an early 2nd-Rounder will snag this kid. Regardless if he produces this year or not a 2nd-Rounder is a SMALL PRICE to pay considering the upside this kid has just off his measurables.
Grab him.
In 2010, with Sanchez tossing the rock the combination of Edwards and Holmes put up:
53 Catches / 904 Yards / 7TD (Edwards)
52 Catches / 746 Yards / 6TD (Holmes)*
I'd say there is a definite chance New York could potentially foster 2 receivers with fantasy value. Braylon Edwards put up an astonishing 17.1YPC and I believe Hill fits that same mold; maybe even better. He isn't a a guy who will catch 100 balls in a season.
*Denotes that Holmes missed 4 games due to suspension.
In 2011, the combination of Burress and Holmes put up:
45 Catches / 612 Yards / 8TD (Burress)
51 Catches / 654 Yards / 8TD (Holmes)
7 of Burress' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.
4 of Holmes' 8 Touchdowns came from within the RZ last season.
Those stats indicate that Sanchez preferred the big bodied Burress in the RZ last season. Stephen Hill stands tall at 6,4.
-
Many people have concerns that the 'Tebow' package will stifle the overall production of Jets Offensive players but I disagree. I offer you Demaryius Thomas' stats last season coming off an injury:
32 Catches / 551 Yards / 4TD (Thomas)*
*Denotes that Thomas missed 5 games due to injury.
If we were to extend Thomas' stats over an entire season with Tebow he'd end up with.
46 Catches / 801 Yards / 6TD (Thomas)
Obviously not 'eye popping' numbers but any game Tebow got the ball to Thomas at least '3 times' the stats looked as follow:
3 Catches / 27 Yards / 1 Touchdown
4 Catches / 144 Yards / 2 Touchdowns
7 Catches / 78 Yards / 1 Touchdown
7 Catches / 116 Yards / 1 Touchdown
While it's true Tebow didn't pass much, when he did pass to Thomas they were 'BOOM' plays. Demaryius Thomas' YPC last season was a staggering 17.2. The best example of a 'BOOM' play is against the Steelers in the playoffs last year:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zuUIhv8z3M
-
So why exactly does all of this bode well for Hill?
1.) Burress caught 7RZ Touchdowns last season and that production has to go elsewhere. I'd say the best bet to pick up some of that slack would be a 6,4 target picked up in the 2nd Round.
2.) Maybe Tebow vultures a few of those RZ Touchdowns but I don't think it's likely we'll see Sanchez being pulled at the Goaline consistently. And IF he is pulled, Tebow threw just as many TDs in the RZ as he ran for (6 a piece).
3.) Santonio Holmes is no slouch at receiver and will draw the coverage that will allow Sanchez and Tebow to exploit Hill's size + speed. He's being asked to be a complementary receiver.
4.) Like Demaryius Thomas, Hill comes from Georgia Tech where he was asked to block on a consistent basis. For a team that wants to get back to the 'ground and pound', receivers that can block well are a must. This will pave his way into the starting line-up.
-
What should we realistically expect?
I'd be happy if Hill put up:
40 Catches / 650 Yards / 6TD
They are NOT flashy numbers but totally in-reach for this Rookie. His real value relies on the fact that:
1.) He will be a RZ target.
2.) He has 'BOOM' play capability.
This is the type of player that might put up goose eggs for you weeks in a row but will suddenly go off for:
4 Catches / 116 Yards / 2 Touchdown
As a Rookie he will be the PERFECT bye-week filler.
In redraft he will be had for peanuts and in Dynasty an early 2nd-Rounder will snag this kid. Regardless if he produces this year or not a 2nd-Rounder is a SMALL PRICE to pay considering the upside this kid has just off his measurables.
Grab him.
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