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Jay Cutler this year------STEAL------- (1 Viewer)

B

Blackjacks

Footballguy
I have been seeing most of the rankings have Cutler in the mid teens for qb's and I gotta say I think he is a steal here.

He is in the 2nd year of a very pass happy offense, 2 freaks of wr's and a very good te.

Forte also avg's around 500 yards through the air

Last year him and McCown combined for top 5 #'s.

and it doesn't hurt that his defense isn't what it use to be so he should be in some shootouts!

I am seeing 3,000 yards between Marshall, Jeffrey and Forte and a minimum of 22 tds

Add in another 500 and 4 to te

And other wr's and back te's and rb's for another 500 and 2

that's all pretty conservative and 4,000 yards and 28 tds.

I think Jay will beat those #'s and add a little with his legs also.

Thoughts

 
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.

 
Me likey Bears. For the first time in a century, their defense sucks and their receivers are good. Every defense in their division sucks. The "Black and Blue" division is now a bunch of pass-first shootout teams and the Minnesota Vikings (whose defense sucks). Yes, please.

Also, if Jeffries is a WR1 and Marshall is a WR1 and Bennett is a TE1 and Forte is RB1.... the QB in the middle of all that has to be a QB1.

 
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I've paired Cutler and RG3, and fully anticipate tough weekly decisions. Cutler's the type of guy that validates waiting on QB in redraft this year.

 
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mrnick33 said:
I've paired Cutler and RG3, and fully anticipate tough weekly decisions. Cutler's the type of guy that validates waiting on QB in redraft this year.
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I actually have that same combo and am looking to deal one off for help/upgrades elsewhere. I gave up the farm for RG3 (still kinda kickin' myself) so reluctant to let him go, but as a Bears fan that thinks Cutler should have a lot of value, I tend to want to keep Cutler.

 
I dealt Flacco/Bruce Carter for Cutler in the offseason, really think Trestman is THAT good with qb's and we're looking at a top 7ish season from Jay.

 
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.

 
Drunken Benson said:
Me likey Bears. For the first time in a century, their defense sucks and their receivers are good. Every defense in their division sucks. The "Black and Blue" division is now a bunch of pass-first shootout teams and the Minnesota Vikings (whose defense sucks). Yes, please.

Also, if Jeffries is a WR1 and Marshall is a WR1 and Bennett is a TE1 and Forte is RB1.... the QB in the middle of all that has to be a QB1.
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well, as yudkin pointed out, he was qb1 last year.

 
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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He's going as the 13th QB off the board in the 9th round. That's value for a guy who IMO is guaranteed to outproduce his draft spot while healthy. Grab another QB later in case of injury and you're in good shape.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Ghost Rider said:
Borden said:
Cutler/Rivers/Ben (in some combination) is a nice late round pairing.
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The problem with that is you'll drive yourself nuts every week trying to decide who to start.
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Whatever the best combination of avg TD thrown + average TD passes allowed by the opposing defenses gets the start.
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From my experience, that works in theory but not in practice. Going with what looks like the best of three QBs on paper sounds great, but when I have tried it, it didn't play out that way. Maybe it was the QBs I had or the year that I tried it, but after that I went with a top tier QB where I don't have to hope every week I am starting the right player.

 
cstu said:
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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He's going as the 13th QB off the board in the 9th round. That's value for a guy who IMO is guaranteed to outproduce his draft spot while healthy. Grab another QB later in case of injury and you're in good shape.
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He's not guaranteed anything.

If we only use ppg, he ranked 21st in ppg over the past 3 years for QBs that played in at least 10 games. He ranked 25th in ppg over the past 2 years for QBs that played in at least 8 games. And he ranked 22nd in pure ppg for QBs that played at least 7 games last year. I gave him a mulligan in a game where he got hurt to basically give him a nudge up the rankings.

Even if we say Cutler is the #12 QB, based on value and fantasy scoring that would make him THE WORST starting QB in a 12 team league. Since we can't really ignore the game he got hurt, he ended up ranking more than 2 ppg worse than the #12 last year . . . and light years away from the Top scoring fantasy QBs.

So on the surface, sure, Cutler looks like a decent guy to pick up in the 8th or 9th round, but he will likely cause more harm than good to a fantasy team unless you happen to play him in his good games as part of a QBBC, as leaving him in the lineup every week will likely prove to be a liability unless he really does much better than expected.

IMO, he's a decent QQBC / injury / bye week fill in guy, but I would not feel comfortable rolling him out in my starting lineup every week. I've owned him many times in the past as my second QB, and when I had to play him I was always looking for another option. For some reason, it appears that throwing to 2 WR, a TE, and a RB does not produce the stats that spreading the ball around more typically does.

 
just to underscore yudkin's points, people talk about using him in a qbbc, but you could probably form an ad hoc qbbc by streaming qb's that would get you about the points cutler does in any given week.

if he's guaranteed to outproduce his draft spot by any significant margin, what do you think qb8 puts up this year, and what do you project for cutty?

edit: going by fftoday scoring (4 pt td), it looks like rivers was 8th in ppg at 4500/32 on the season, but with only 11 picks -- don't think they deduct on those.

 
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I've got my eye on his back up in dynasty. If Fales prevails and gets the backup job (Jordan Palmer and Claussen are his comp), he's worth an add in deeper type leagues IMO.

 
Anarchy99 said:
cstu said:
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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He's going as the 13th QB off the board in the 9th round. That's value for a guy who IMO is guaranteed to outproduce his draft spot while healthy. Grab another QB later in case of injury and you're in good shape.
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He's not guaranteed anything.

If we only use ppg, he ranked 21st in ppg over the past 3 years for QBs that played in at least 10 games. He ranked 25th in ppg over the past 2 years for QBs that played in at least 8 games. And he ranked 22nd in pure ppg for QBs that played at least 7 games last year. I gave him a mulligan in a game where he got hurt to basically give him a nudge up the rankings.

Even if we say Cutler is the #12 QB, based on value and fantasy scoring that would make him THE WORST starting QB in a 12 team league. Since we can't really ignore the game he got hurt, he ended up ranking more than 2 ppg worse than the #12 last year . . . and light years away from the Top scoring fantasy QBs.

So on the surface, sure, Cutler looks like a decent guy to pick up in the 8th or 9th round, but he will likely cause more harm than good to a fantasy team unless you happen to play him in his good games as part of a QBBC, as leaving him in the lineup every week will likely prove to be a liability unless he really does much better than expected.

IMO, he's a decent QQBC / injury / bye week fill in guy, but I would not feel comfortable rolling him out in my starting lineup every week. I've owned him many times in the past as my second QB, and when I had to play him I was always looking for another option. For some reason, it appears that throwing to 2 WR, a TE, and a RB does not produce the stats that spreading the ball around more typically does.
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The first 6 games last year he was QB11 in PPG. His 22.7 ppg those games would have put him in the top 5 over the entire season.

 
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How is the OL looking there? If they can protect cutler he can be really really productive. Hard to stay healthy when you get crushed 20 times a game

 
cstu said:
Anarchy99 said:
cstu said:
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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He's going as the 13th QB off the board in the 9th round. That's value for a guy who IMO is guaranteed to outproduce his draft spot while healthy. Grab another QB later in case of injury and you're in good shape.
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He's not guaranteed anything.

If we only use ppg, he ranked 21st in ppg over the past 3 years for QBs that played in at least 10 games. He ranked 25th in ppg over the past 2 years for QBs that played in at least 8 games. And he ranked 22nd in pure ppg for QBs that played at least 7 games last year. I gave him a mulligan in a game where he got hurt to basically give him a nudge up the rankings.

Even if we say Cutler is the #12 QB, based on value and fantasy scoring that would make him THE WORST starting QB in a 12 team league. Since we can't really ignore the game he got hurt, he ended up ranking more than 2 ppg worse than the #12 last year . . . and light years away from the Top scoring fantasy QBs.

So on the surface, sure, Cutler looks like a decent guy to pick up in the 8th or 9th round, but he will likely cause more harm than good to a fantasy team unless you happen to play him in his good games as part of a QBBC, as leaving him in the lineup every week will likely prove to be a liability unless he really does much better than expected.

IMO, he's a decent QQBC / injury / bye week fill in guy, but I would not feel comfortable rolling him out in my starting lineup every week. I've owned him many times in the past as my second QB, and when I had to play him I was always looking for another option. For some reason, it appears that throwing to 2 WR, a TE, and a RB does not produce the stats that spreading the ball around more typically does.
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The first 6 games last year he was QB11 in PPG. His 22.7 ppg those games would have put him in the top 5 over the entire season.
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From Weeks 9-15 last year, Tom Brady ranked as the #3 fantasy QB based on ppg in picking that 6 game stretch. The point being, lots of guys play well some of the time.

 
The Steelers played no-huddle sparingly early in 2013. They implemented it down the stretch, and Ben Roethlisberger was fantasy football's No. 4 overall quarterback across Pittsburgh's final nine games
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there's gonna be about 10 guys in the top 5 next year

 
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Kool-Aid Larry said:
thought somebody bumped a year old thread
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Exactly. I grabbed Cutler as a backup last year for the same reasons the OP stated. He got hurt in the one game I needed him (bye coverage). Ended up releasing him for someone on the field later in the season.

19 TDs, 12 INTs... not incredibly impressive. There is a reason Cutler is undervalued. But, yes, the supporting cast will make someone pull the trigger on Cutler again.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
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Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
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Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)
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I'm assuming he got the easier part

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
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Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)
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226 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT against GB in Week 17 is lighting them up?

We'll see if a) Cutler can stay healthy for a change, and b) Cutler can produce at a consistent and reliable level. With the two stud WRs he has, as well as a stud RB and very good TE, he is out of excuses. He has never been better than +7 when it comes to TD-INT ratio, and with him entering his 9th season, can he outdo that this year? I have my doubts.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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FWIW, that's pretty much what my rearview article does, and you're right:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_rearview-qb2014

Cutler ranked 15th in Fantasy Points per Adjusted Game, although if you raise the minimum number of games played, you'd eliminate McCown and Vick, and Cutler would move up to 13. The issue, though, is whether you think Cutler can play more like say, McCown played last year, than Cutler himself.

 
Chase Stuart said:
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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FWIW, that's pretty much what my rearview article does, and you're right:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_rearview-qb2014

Cutler ranked 15th in Fantasy Points per Adjusted Game, although if you raise the minimum number of games played, you'd eliminate McCown and Vick, and Cutler would move up to 13. The issue, though, is whether you think Cutler can play more like say, McCown played last year, than Cutler himself.
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How would this look if you used only the first 6 games?

 
It's the second year of an offensive line that was young, but much improved last year.

It's the second year AJ will be there as a full-on stud target. Giving him maybe the fullest set of stud targets in the game, or at least close to it.

It's the second year Cutler, and all the rest of the skill position players will have in a Trestman offense that we all knew would be fantasy-friendly from the get-go, and that offense already provided elite QB unit numbers once.

Can Cutler parlay all of that into a top five-ish season? Doesn't seem impossible, even if it's not exactly likely. But that's the kind of situation you want to bank on when you're looking for great values later on in the draft. Those are the kinds of upside components I feel better about relying on, rather than guys who I'm abstractly hoping will make some kind of leap. :shrug:

He ain't a sure thing, but at his current price, I'll be targeting him.

 
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The Cutler/McCown combo was, iirc QB4 last year. Why couldn't Cutler approximate that finish this year on a per-game basis? He has the same awesome weapons, coaches and offense. None of the defenses in his division are very good.

If you are worried about his inability to stay healthy, I can see it. Otherwise he looks like an outstanding high ceiling play that you can get pretty damn cheap.

Admittedly, I'm a homer but I'm usually "glass half empty" with Bears players.

 
Monsters of the Midway said:
The Cutler/McCown combo was, iirc QB4 last year. Why couldn't Cutler approximate that finish this year on a per-game basis? He has the same awesome weapons, coaches and offense. None of the defenses in his division are very good.

If you are worried about his inability to stay healthy, I can see it. Otherwise he looks like an outstanding high ceiling play that you can get pretty damn cheap.

Admittedly, I'm a homer but I'm usually "glass half empty" with Bears players.
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So does Michael Vick get credit for how Nick Foles played last year?

Cutler DID NOT have a 13-1 TD to INT ratio, nor did he post a 9.1 AYPA like McCown did. Cutler has always had a much higher INT ratio and his AYPA has been 2-2.5 yards lower than McCown's was last year.

We have had 8 years and over 100 games played on Cutler to look at. The only year he was a Top 5 fantasy QB was when he passed 616 times. In the past 4 years in CHI, his high has been 434 attempts.

So sure, if Cutler turns into a different QB, stays healthy, and throws the ball 650 times then you could be on to something. But it is more likely that he makes a run at a Top 8-14 finish (if healthy) and things could easily start reverting backwards from there.

 
I'm a little confused at what you are arguing. Is it that McCown is better than Cutler? I'm saying the upside is there based on the QB4 finish from last year, and that I think that Cutler is better than McCown.

You seem to be combining his prior years with a lesser cast than he has now + not being durable. That is certainly reasonable. I'm trying to point out that last year's offense was really, really good; that all players and coaches are still in place, so to me that screams upside. Good point about the 616 attempt year for Cutler-FYI Bears QBs threw the ball 579 times last year.

 
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Yes, CHI ranked 4th in fantasy points by QB last year. My point was that Cutler has never played as well as McCown did in the stretch he played last year. So while Cutler may be better overall, his numbers have not been at the level when McCown played. Had Cutler played like his usual self in the McCown games, CHI would not have ranked 4th in fantasy points by their QB. With 12 fewer fantasy points CHI would have ranked 8th in fantasy QB scoring.

One thing not discussed so far is that it is unlikely Marshall and Jeffery can do better statistically this year than last year. So any production improvement for Cutler will have to come from other guys on the roster. IMO, CHI would be more likely to produce less rather than better this year. Three of their 4 highest scoring games are not on the schedule this year (WAS, PIT, CLE).

My fear for Cutler is regression to his mean, his ability to stay healthy, and not having the number of attempts as some of the other high flying offenses. Also, teams may adjust and things may be more difficult than last year. I still say he is a decent depth pick or 2nd fantasy QB, but I would be leary of having or planning to start him with regularity.

 
Well said David. I was going to ask about your predictions for Marshall/Jeffery as it's part of my Cutler defense. You see a decline which definitely explains not being high on Cutler. One thing I'm wondering about is for those who have Forte, Marshall & Jeffery as top 20 picks yet Cutler is nowhere to be found.

I enjoyed the discussion, thanks for the thoughtful replies.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Monsters of the Midway said:
The Cutler/McCown combo was, iirc QB4 last year. Why couldn't Cutler approximate that finish this year on a per-game basis? He has the same awesome weapons, coaches and offense. None of the defenses in his division are very good.

If you are worried about his inability to stay healthy, I can see it. Otherwise he looks like an outstanding high ceiling play that you can get pretty damn cheap.

Admittedly, I'm a homer but I'm usually "glass half empty" with Bears players.
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So does Michael Vick get credit for how Nick Foles played last year?

Cutler DID NOT have a 13-1 TD to INT ratio, nor did he post a 9.1 AYPA like McCown did. Cutler has always had a much higher INT ratio and his AYPA has been 2-2.5 yards lower than McCown's was last year.

We have had 8 years and over 100 games played on Cutler to look at. The only year he was a Top 5 fantasy QB was when he passed 616 times. In the past 4 years in CHI, his high has been 434 attempts.

So sure, if Cutler turns into a different QB, stays healthy, and throws the ball 650 times then you could be on to something. But it is more likely that he makes a run at a Top 8-14 finish (if healthy) and things could easily start reverting backwards from there.
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If Cutler had played against the Cowboys, Packers, VIkings, Rams and the entire Skins game - I am pretty sure the TD-Int ratio would be much much better too.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Yes, CHI ranked 4th in fantasy points by QB last year. My point was that Cutler has never played as well as McCown did in the stretch he played last year. So while Cutler may be better overall, his numbers have not been at the level when McCown played. Had Cutler played like his usual self in the McCown games, CHI would not have ranked 4th in fantasy points by their QB. With 12 fewer fantasy points CHI would have ranked 8th in fantasy QB scoring.

One thing not discussed so far is that it is unlikely Marshall and Jeffery can do better statistically this year than last year. So any production improvement for Cutler will have to come from other guys on the roster. IMO, CHI would be more likely to produce less rather than better this year. Three of their 4 highest scoring games are not on the schedule this year (WAS, PIT, CLE).

My fear for Cutler is regression to his mean, his ability to stay healthy, and not having the number of attempts as some of the other high flying offenses. Also, teams may adjust and things may be more difficult than last year. I still say he is a decent depth pick or 2nd fantasy QB, but I would be leary of having or planning to start him with regularity.
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Was, Pitt and Cle are not on the schedule but instead the Bears get Falcons; Bucs; Panthers; Bills; Fins; Jets (all teams that have bad to terrible pass Ds). Also, they play the Niners who are good against the run but not so good against the pass (especially now that they even lost Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner and will be without Bowman and most likely Aldon Smith too when they play the Bears in week 2).

 
I think the what isn't being discussed is how much credit does Tressmen get?

If last years new head coach is actually improving Cutler (through coaching or scheme) then are doing ourselves a disservice by assuming Cutler goes back to putting up numbers closer to what he had before?

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
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Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)
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here's mccown's easier part of the schedule:

cowboys --- this is actually correct, mccown did play this team

vikings --- they both played minny

packers --- they both played the packers, as chronicled by an above poster

part of the redskins game --- cutler's part amounted to 28 yds and a pick on 3 of 8, so I assume he had the harder part of this game

lions --- mccown threw a total of 9 balls vs detroit, but I'll assume he got the easier part of those games as he completed 6 for 62 yds and a score

meanwhile, cutler threw 87 balls against detroit completing 55%, a figure 35 qb bettered on the year

he did light them up for 283 yds/game, along with a total of 3 td and 4 picks in those 2 games

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Anarchy99 said:
Yes, CHI ranked 4th in fantasy points by QB last year. My point was that Cutler has never played as well as McCown did in the stretch he played last year. So while Cutler may be better overall, his numbers have not been at the level when McCown played. Had Cutler played like his usual self in the McCown games, CHI would not have ranked 4th in fantasy points by their QB. With 12 fewer fantasy points CHI would have ranked 8th in fantasy QB scoring.

One thing not discussed so far is that it is unlikely Marshall and Jeffery can do better statistically this year than last year. So any production improvement for Cutler will have to come from other guys on the roster. IMO, CHI would be more likely to produce less rather than better this year. Three of their 4 highest scoring games are not on the schedule this year (WAS, PIT, CLE).

My fear for Cutler is regression to his mean, his ability to stay healthy, and not having the number of attempts as some of the other high flying offenses. Also, teams may adjust and things may be more difficult than last year. I still say he is a decent depth pick or 2nd fantasy QB, but I would be leary of having or planning to start him with regularity.
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Was, Pitt and Cle are not on the schedule but instead the Bears get Falcons; Bucs; Panthers; Bills; Fins; Jets (all teams that have bad to terrible pass Ds). Also, they play the Niners who are good against the run but not so good against the pass (especially now that they even lost Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner and will be without Bowman and most likely Aldon Smith too when they play the Bears in week 2).
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I think that's a very valid point that a lot of the teams on cutler's schedule have issues in their secondary.

however --- from profootballfocus

• [Cutler] Graded at -4.4 when pressured including -5.3 against blitz pressure.

• [Mccown] Posted league’s highest grade when pressured: +8.9.

• [Mccown] Graded well against the blitz (+9.0) and against a traditional rush (+8.5).
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Kool-Aid Larry said:
Sweetness_34 said:
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
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Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)
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here's mccown's easier part of the schedule:

cowboys --- this is actually correct, mccown did play this team

vikings --- they both played minny

packers --- they both played the packers, as chronicled by an above poster

part of the redskins game --- cutler's part amounted to 28 yds and a pick on 3 of 8, so I assume he had the harder part of this game

lions --- mccown threw a total of 9 balls vs detroit, but I'll assume he got the easier part of those games as he completed 6 for 62 yds and a score

meanwhile, cutler threw 87 balls against detroit completing 55%, a figure 35 qb bettered on the year

he did light them up for 283 yds/game, along with a total of 3 td and 4 picks in those 2 games
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Cutler was coming off an injury and again got hurt during the Detroit game and played through the injury. How conveniently you forget the truth. They both played Minny and Cutler did fine in game 1 too.

 
Anarchy99 said:
If you throw out the game when Cutler got hurt and recalculated ppg, he ranked pretty much as the last of the fantasy QB1s (QB12) last year. I would expect a few guys that ranked behind him to bounce back or do a little better this year (RGIII, Brady, Ryan, possibly Wilson and/or Kaepernick). Bottom line, Cutler is in the mix with a lot of other QBs vying to sneak into the QB1 range. Once again, I suspect anyone looking for him to be a fantasy difference maker and make huge strides to being an elite fantasy QB will be disappointed.
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Yeah...he is who you fall back on if you wait...have a decent upside younger QB to backup or for Cutler to be the back up and hope he stays healthy.

While getting hurt has been his excuse...he has 1 4,000 yard season in his career and only once thrown more than 25 TDS

 
Sweetness_34 said:
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Sweetness_34 said:
Ghost Rider said:
Cutler hasn't played 16 games since 2009, and while he did play 15 games in two of those four seasons, he seems to get dinged up a bit every year. In other words, better make sure you get a good backup, cause you'll likely need him.

It's also noteworthy that despite having those weapons to throw to last year, he was't exactly lighting it up. 19 TD passes in 11 games isn't lighting the world on fire.

Buyer beware.
Click to expand...
Reason he did not light it up as much was it was his first year in that O and remember, McCown got the easier part of the schedule - Cowboys; Vikings; Lions; part of the Redskins game; Packers. When Cutler played against the VIkings in week 2 and Packers in last game of year, he did light them up. So it was just bad luck that he was injured during the easier part of the schedule....Bears have the Vikings; Lions; Packers; Cowboys again on their schedule in addition to bad pass Ds from the NFC South (Falcons; Bucs and even Panthers are bad at pass D) and AFC East (Jets and Bills are terrible against the pass and Bills just lost their best playmaker on D)
Click to expand...
here's mccown's easier part of the schedule:

cowboys --- this is actually correct, mccown did play this team

vikings --- they both played minny

packers --- they both played the packers, as chronicled by an above poster

part of the redskins game --- cutler's part amounted to 28 yds and a pick on 3 of 8, so I assume he had the harder part of this game

lions --- mccown threw a total of 9 balls vs detroit, but I'll assume he got the easier part of those games as he completed 6 for 62 yds and a score

meanwhile, cutler threw 87 balls against detroit completing 55%, a figure 35 qb bettered on the year

he did light them up for 283 yds/game, along with a total of 3 td and 4 picks in those 2 games
Click to expand...
Cutler was coming off an injury and again got hurt during the Detroit game and played through the injury. How conveniently you forget the truth. They both played Minny and Cutler did fine in game 1 too.
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cutler played through an injury in one game so we'll attribute the detroit games to mccown --- got it

 
mrnick33 said:
I've paired Cutler and RG3, and fully anticipate tough weekly decisions. Cutler's the type of guy that validates waiting on QB in redraft this year.
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I'm in the middle of a Draftmaster draft and just snagged Cutler in the 9th to pair with RG3. Figure that pairing can do some real nice things.

The biggest thing with Cutler is health. Like someone mentioned earlier in here, he seems to always miss games. I don't think he's played with a better group of weapons on offense before. He could easily finish in the top 10 this season if he stays healthy.

 
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