Auction Strategies/Budgets 2014 (Redraft) (1 Viewer)

Saw a bunch of dyno/startup threads but nothing really on redraft. There are a lot of different strategies, I was wondering what the tank was thinking for those in redraft auctions this year. I know you have to "keep your head on a swivel" and "be ready to adjust your strategy" and "look for value"...yada yada...pretty obvious. And yea if you play your cards right you can get some insane value at the end of the draft if you save but I want to avoid talking value cause you know how hunting it goes when you are in the thick of things.

Here is what I am looking at this year. (15 man standard roster with $200 cap)

QB- I will take two. If I can score one of the Ryan, Foles...etc crowd for good price I will do that and shoot for a Cutler, Rivers, Big Ben for backup or match up/trade bait if all goes well. (Budget $15-20)

RB- I want 6 RB. I want one or two tier 2 Rbs depending on how it goes and one or two tier 3 Rbs. From there I look to spend the rest of my RB budget on three tier 4/5 Rb and hope to hit on 3 or 4 out of 6 relatively speaking. (Budget $100-$110)

WR- Looking at 4 WR. I want one tier 2/3, and three tier 3/4 WR here. There is so much talent in the WR pool but need to hit here if only carrying 4 players. (Budget $70-75)

TE- Forced to target one tight end here. I guess if I get good value at QB on every week starter I can grab two tight ends but I feel more comfortable carrying two QB. (Budget $2-10)

K and D - $1 per but might pay $2 for a defense but no more than that. (Budget $2-3 for both positions)

So obviously I am not aiming for any top tier player at their position, I am concerning myself with depth so I can go ahead and kiss the big dogs goodbye. I guess you could say I am conservative but it has paid off for me in my main money leagues as you stand a better chance of finding that killer value over a well known commodity that will cost you. Again, it's all about value in auction, and I will jump on it if I see it, but how is everyone else approaching their redraft?

Last auction draft I did, I tried to target mostly mid range players with a stud or two. I picked jimmy graham as my stud and picked mostly high upside wide receivers that usually went in the 5th and 6th round. This year you should have no problem doing that because this year there's a lot of high upside wide receivers, like Patterson, Crabtree, Cruz, and sanders. At rb I like to target two established running backs and one value pick. The key to auctions is looking for value and sometimes running up the cost for other people. At QB I usually look for Aaron Rodgers or Brees but if it doesn't fit the test of my team I'll target a Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, or rivers late. Overall just remember to look for value, remain patient, be willing to spend enough to get the guy you want, and spend your money wisely. Good luck.

I personally don't like to go into an auction and budget out players as much as you have. I make a spreadsheet with about 80 different combinations of auctions values broken up by starting position and pick one after the auction starts. Like this year, I've already had 1 auction, and the top QB's were actually going for value. Like you, I had planned on going QB late, but after Peyton, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees went at about 70% of their values of the past 3 years. With so many people waiting on QB, all the later guys were going at 120% of their past values. If I had a specific plan like you, I would've missed out on the value and overpaid later. Instead, I could look down and say I spent X on my QB1, and then X on my RB1, I want to spend approximately X on each of RB2, WR1, WR2, ect.

I think it is best to figure out what you want to do up to about 185 dollars, that way that extra 15 can be applied to when you have to spend a few extra dollars on players you really want when bidding escalates. If you get too strict with your own prices in your head, you'll miss out on too many players, and then you'll find yourself in no-man's land later in the auction with a lot of money and no great players left and you'll end up having to spend 20 dollars on a guy that should have gone for 13, 12 on a guy that should have gone for 5, etc.

Like Ghost Rider, I don't prescribe to budgets like that. I like bleachercreacher's suggestion about coming prepared with several combinations of potential auction patterns if you don't know your league's drafting tendencies beforehand. That will help you formulate a draft plan as the draft unfolds, but you should have a plan before you get to the draft. I know people will dismiss this saying you need to be flexible, but you can do both.

The beauty of auction leagues is that you can get the players you want. Everyone has a shot at every player. In a snake draft you are pretty much forced into buying one player at $60, the next player at $48, the next player at $39, etc. but if you want to avoid first round players and load up on 3rd round players then that's your option with auction. This freedom is awesome and makes you wonder how people still snake draft. So my suggestion is that you definitely target guys you want and don't get caught up trying to force people to pay for players you don't want. Here's my recommended approach to auction redrafts:

First, take your best guess at auction values. The top option would be to look at last year's auction, sort it by position with descending values and match that up to the ADP/rankings that you think your league will most likely follow. If this is a new league, you'll have to just use AAVs that fit your scoring and league size.

Second, start making roster combinations that you like, but add 10% to each player to give yourself some leeway (this won't always be enough, but it averages out). If you want Jimmy Graham, make a roster with him, but also prepare for life without him by making a combo without him. He uses a lot of cap space so you'll have a drastically different roster in the two scenarios. Basically start a flow chart with the most expensive, high priority guys at the top. You'll end up with a lot of combos the deeper you go. But in this example I'd start a column of options with Graham and without. Then under each of those, if you really want McCoy, make a combo with and without him (you're now up to 4 combos). Maybe make a combo of three WR2s and zero WR1s if you like that look. Just keep doing this.

Third, you need alternates for each "role player" in these combos. If you don't get Jimmy Graham, then you moved onto a different combo. But once the key players are in place, you are working on filling up that specific combo properly. If you had Harvin slotted at WR2, who would you be comfortable with if he gets bid up too high? List yourself a couple options for each slot. Chances are, you'll land one of them. If you have to overpay for one of these role players, it's only a few bucks which will be offset by either that 10% you added or by a lower price you got on another player. If not, then you can afford better backups. You may start the season off without a WR2 according to predraft rankings, but you'll have several high upside WR3s on your bench which you were able to afford in lieu of that WR2. If you know what you are doing, one of them will hit that upside.

Finally, the draft will begin. Quickly you'll find out if your top players are on your team or not and you'll be able to "adjust" to this easily because you've already got a plan you like that works for each scenario. Didn't land Graham or McCoy? All is not lost because you've got a draft plan without them. Landed them both? Time to freeze the account until the bargain players? Nope. You know exactly what types of players you are going to target fill the holes with. Stick to the plan.

If you are thorough with your prep, nothing will catch you off guard. While others are simply drafting pick by pick with no direction and no clue what their final roster will look like, you'll have a well thought out vision for your team.

Yeah, I make about 5 or 6 different budgets and cross them off as they become no longer possible. I had one last year based on getting 1 stud RB and Jimmy Graham, but Graham went for too much, so then I cross that one off, and put that money towards a WR or another RB.

I had another based on spending more on a QB than I thought. The plan is always to spend little at QB, but if that's everyone's plan and a stud can be head relatively cheaply, I may end up spending more than I thought. So I need to plan for that possibility.

Plan A this year is to take advantage of Gronk's "3rd round" value, splurge on a top 4 RB (I've been in the league long enough to know about how much they'll cost), and then maybe a Chris Johnson, Ellington, or Gerhart for RB2, dirt cheat QBs, and then take advantage of the depth at WR. If Gronk's value doesn't hold, I'll probably go cheap at TE and spend it on a better RB2 and/or RB depth. In this league top WRs go for nearly as much as top RBs, even though we don't award points for just catching the ball. So I'm likely to splash around in the 3rd and 4th tier of WRs. .

Budgeting $X for RBs, and so on is not good enough IMO. You need to budget for each starting skill position, as well as your first backup RB.

Start by doing your projections and coverting them into auction values. Dodds' VBD spreadsheet is a good tool for that. Then put down the "market prices" for each player. That way, you will see which players you think are undervalued and which are overvalued.

In a typical league, I would budget 90% of my cap for my starters and 1st backup RB. So for a $200 cap, I figure out what the best lineup that I can fill, which maximizes my projected points given the market contraints, and how my projections are tiered.

Say my strategy is to take a top tier RB, a second tier WR, a top tier QB, a fourth tier RB, two fourth tier WRs (say ranked 25-30), a fifth tier RB as a backup, and a cheap TE. For each starting positon, you need to have at least 2-3 options to fill it. Otherwise your strategy can go down the tubes quickly.

So my example could be (start 1QB, 2WR, 3WR, 1 TE league)

RB 1 - Top Tier RB - $63 RB1-4 (Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte)

QB 1 - Top Tier QB - $28 QB1-3 (P Manning, Brees, Rodgers)

WR 1 - 2nd tier WR - $34 WR 8-12 (Nelson, Cobb, V Jackson, Antonio Brown)

RB 2 - Fourth Tier RB - $20 RB17-20 (Stacy, Ellington, R Jennings, Spiller)

RB 3 - Fifth Tier RB - $12 RB22-25 (Moreno, Richardson, Jones-Drew)

WR 2 - Fourth Tier WR - $14 WR23-30 (M Floyd, Hilton, Crabtree, Patterson, T Smith, Sanders, Edelman, Decker)

WR 3 - Fifth Tier WR - $6 WR 34-38 (Wallace, Shorts, T Williams, Colston, Cooper)

TE 1 - Cheap TE - $2 TE (Clay, Rudolph, J Reed, Pitta)

Kicker - $1

Defense - $1

Total on starters + RB3 - $181 (about 90% of cap).

This is just an illustration, and the players listed and prices are irrelevant.

I determined my strategy is - Top RB, Top QB, good WR but not elite WR, average to slightly below average RB2, good RB3, weak WR2 and OK WR3 will produce an optimal amount of points, given my projections and what I can acquire given market prices. The better you know your league, the better you can tailor your strategy. If you know your league will overbid on RBs, you can factor that in by allocating more to RBs, or by accepting lower end RBs and allocate additional funds for stud QB/WRs/TEs. With this approach, you have a great chance of actually creating your optimal team, since you have multiple options at each position.

While I want to spend 90% of my cap on my starters + RB3, I usually will start with 85%, and put $10 into a "slush fund". I can use the slush fund 5 different ways:

1) add to the RBs if they are going for more than I thought

2) upgrade another position. In my example, I have $34 alloacted to my WR1, and haven't drafted that slot yet. Say Brandon Marshall in being bid and the bidding stalls at $37, and you think Marshall is worth $45. Get in there and bid $38 and see if you can get Marshall instead of your WR8-12.

3) get a better RB4 and build good depth at RB

4) own the end of the auction.....you will have an extra dollar or two to steal sleepers at the end.

5) Add on a to a player that I absolutely have to have....say Jimmy Graham. Since Graham is in a tier by himself, if you're strategy hinges on getting Graham, you need to add your slush to his market price in case he goes for more than market. If you are able to secure him less than your allocated price + slush, the difference goes to your remaining slush fund.

The slush fund allows you flexibility in case the draft goes very differently than what you anticipated.

This approach takes a lot of time and effort, but is rewarding when you dominate the draft and you produce a team that is maximizes points given the market prices. It's similar to what FF Ninja does in his post above.

starks said:

So obviously I am not aiming for any top tier player at their position, I am concerning myself with depth so I can go ahead and kiss the big dogs goodbye. I guess you could say I am conservative but it has paid off for me in my main money leagues as you stand a better chance of finding that killer value over a well known commodity that will cost you. Again, it's all about value in auction, and I will jump on it if I see it, but how is everyone else approaching their redraft?

Click to expand...

I will be honest with you. This type of strategy of a "balanced" team without any studs....this a 4-5th place strategy. You will need a lot of your guys to produce above their values to make up for being behind teams with studs while hitting on a player or two late a cheap prices. Depth is nice, but IMO you need at least one stud player out of following.....Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, Lacy, P Manning, Brees, Rodgers, J Graham, Calvin, D Thomas, A Green, D Bryant, B Marshall.

Auctions are zero sum games......If studs are going for more than usual, then others will go for less. The key is spend the least possible for the stud players vs your leaguemates. If you spend $60 for McCoy and Peterson and Charles went for $65, that's good for you.

I'm going to make sure I land one of the big 3 rbs (Charles, McCoy, AP), even if it is very expensive. I'll then take my chances with a mid tier RB2.

If my league, which is not ppr, the big three carry such a significant VBD advantage, that the value is worth it.

I'll then buy wr in bulk, but there is simply more candidates to outperform their auction value than at any other position.

Knowing Graham or Gronk will likely be too expensive, a TE like Witten is in my sights.

No more than a buck on K and D- ever.

fightingillini said:

starks said:

So obviously I am not aiming for any top tier player at their position, I am concerning myself with depth so I can go ahead and kiss the big dogs goodbye. I guess you could say I am conservative but it has paid off for me in my main money leagues as you stand a better chance of finding that killer value over a well known commodity that will cost you. Again, it's all about value in auction, and I will jump on it if I see it, but how is everyone else approaching their redraft?

Click to expand...

I will be honest with you. This type of strategy of a "balanced" team without any studs....this a 4-5th place strategy. You will need a lot of your guys to produce above their values to make up for being behind teams with studs while hitting on a player or two late a cheap prices. Depth is nice, but IMO you need at least one stud player out of following.....Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, Lacy, P Manning, Brees, Rodgers, J Graham, Calvin, D Thomas, A Green, D Bryant, B Marshall.

Auctions are zero sum games......If studs are going for more than usual, then others will go for less. The key is spend the least possible for the stud players vs your leaguemates. If you spend $60 for McCoy and Peterson and Charles went for $65, that's good for you.

Click to expand...

Agreed. Having six $15 WRs might look great on paper, cause you've got great depth, but when you are only starting 3-4 per week (depending on the flex spots), if one of those guys don't pan out and become a top 10 WR, you'll be getting merely pretty good/solid production of your WRs on a regular basis, and that is assuming you guess right nearly every week in regards to which ones to start.

Same thing with spending $10 on two equally good quarterbacks, instead of just biting the bullet and getting a much better for $20. With two $10 QBs, you'll drive yourself nuts every week trying to play the matchups. Hell, I've made that mistake in the past, so I've done the leg work. That is the key: learning from your mistakes.

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

I very often (have been playing auction leagues for years) will throw out a projected low dollar/ high value guy early on while everyone is guarding their money for top tier players. This routinely gets me the player Im after cheaper the I valued him.

Another great strategy is to bid up every player to 75% of your projected value. This does 2 things, 1- hide who you are really going after as you are in every bid and 2 - if you get said player for that 75% or less you are positioned great as getting value should be a top priority of any auction.

General auction advice:

1. Spend most of your budget on "starters" (with "starters" in quotes because it often makes sense to think of the top RB & WR on your bench as being essentially starters, given the uncertainty).

2. Buy players who are good values, and try to avoid overspending. (Though you may not be able to entirely avoid overspending, e.g., you have to buy at least one QB even if they're all "overpriced" according to your valuations.)

3. Be flexible - ready to follow the value, or act on any one of several plans depending on how the draft flows. (e.g., Be prepared for a draft where you get both Manning & Graham at good prices, and also be prepared for a draft where you go cheap at QB & TE and focus your money on RB & WR.)

Rule 2 is the obvious thing. Rule 3 lets you follow rule 2 more effectively. A common mistake for people who try to follow rules 2 & 3 is to fail to follow rule 1, which causes you to end up with a very strong WR6 sitting on your bench (or, even worse, with a bunch of unspent money at the end of the auction). But as long as most of your money is buying a stronger starting lineup, and you're buying it at good prices, you should be in good shape regardless of how your spending gets distributed between positions & tiers.

dkp993 said:

I very often (have been playing auction leagues for years) will throw out a projected low dollar/ high value guy early on while everyone is guarding their money for top tier players. This routinely gets me the player Im after cheaper the I valued him.

Another great strategy is to bid up every player to 75% of your projected value. This does 2 things, 1- hide who you are really going after as you are in every bid and 2 - if you get said player for that 75% or less you are positioned great as getting value should be a top priority of any auction.

Click to expand...

Agree with your first point. The chances are great that you will steal that player at a discount.

Regarding your second point, I like to bid a lot of guys to hide my true feelings on certain players. But you have to be very careful.

One year, a guy drafted Peyton Manning, and was bidding up a lot of players up to a certain point. Matt Ryan was nominated, I was bidding with the Manning owner and another guy. The bidding stalled at $14, which is about $3-4 lower than Ryan's typical market value. I was sitting with the $14 bid. Through the "going once, going twice" phase, the Manning owner bid $15, to try and make me pay $16, which would be closer to Ryan's market value. He assumed that I was going to bid $16 for Ryan. He was wrong. I let him get stuck with Ryan, and went on to draft RGIII later and it worked out for me. The Manning owner essentially wasted about $10-12 getting stuck with Ryan, when he could have drafted a backup QB for $3-5. That guy panicked and it ruined his draft and he had a terrible year.

So be careful, you could get stuck with a player that you don't want, even if you get him at a discount.

fightingillini said:

dkp993 said:

I very often (have been playing auction leagues for years) will throw out a projected low dollar/ high value guy early on while everyone is guarding their money for top tier players. This routinely gets me the player Im after cheaper the I valued him.

Another great strategy is to bid up every player to 75% of your projected value. This does 2 things, 1- hide who you are really going after as you are in every bid and 2 - if you get said player for that 75% or less you are positioned great as getting value should be a top priority of any auction.

Click to expand...

Agree with your first point. The chances are great that you will steal that player at a discount.

Regarding your second point, I like to bid a lot of guys to hide my true feelings on certain players. But you have to be very careful.

One year, a guy drafted Peyton Manning, and was bidding up a lot of players up to a certain point. Matt Ryan was nominated, I was bidding with the Manning owner and another guy. The bidding stalled at $14, which is about $3-4 lower than Ryan's typical market value. I was sitting with the $14 bid. Through the "going once, going twice" phase, the Manning owner bid $15, to try and make me pay $16, which would be closer to Ryan's market value. He assumed that I was going to bid $16 for Ryan. He was wrong. I let him get stuck with Ryan, and went on to draft RGIII later and it worked out for me. The Manning owner essentially wasted about $10-12 getting stuck with Ryan, when he could have drafted a backup QB for $3-5. That guy panicked and it ruined his draft and he had a terrible year.

So be careful, you could get stuck with a player that you don't want, even if you get him at a discount.

Click to expand...

agreed. I will never try to bid up a player that i dont want/need.

Who are guys that you have seen that are good values accordingnto their listed prices?

for instance ive seen mike wallace go for less than 8. Absolute steal imo

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

One thing I'll add to this. If there's a player that you want and the rest of your strategy depends on it, throw him out early. If not, you'll possibly miss out on a few other guys. For an example lets use Jimmy Graham. Last year he went for more than double the next TE in my local auction. With other TE's closing the gap, I expect him to go for less this year following my leagues history. I'll already know I want him if I can get him for less than $X, but if not I want to wait until late for TE. I'm going to nominate him very early, so I'll free up the money to spend elsewhere. On the other hand,if you were wanting Gronk or Julius Thomas, you might try to nomiate them first. Other owners wanting Jimmy Graham will wait to bid.

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

Sleepers / cheap picks can be tricky. Wait too long and they might get bid higher than you expected as two or more owners could have a gap which the sleeper could fill. Go too early and everyone has money and all it takes is one or two guys who want to play enforcer and make sure the players go for what they consider fair value. But, going early can be the smart play as guys have other targets and let that player go.

Totally agree with nominating players who you don't like but others may view as sleepers. Or just guys you think will be overbid. But I'd be cautious about nominating these guys too early unless you know your other owners. Some leagues are hesitant to spend too much early.

One of the best moves IMO from my currently ongoing dynasty auction was a team nominating the QB he really wanted early, put enough up (proxy bid) to essentially ensure he'd get him. He won his guy as the first player won, set the market for QBs, and in his opinion got a top 5 QB for the 10th highest amount. IMO, the QB (Russell Wilson) is somewhere between 8-12, but he got his guy for a price he was happy to pay, and in the end that's what matters. He also was able to avoid the QB bidding wars which followed although looking at the prices now, they're pretty reasonable across the board. 32 team league, so QBs were a premium.

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

Click to expand...

The correlation to this point is that you do NOT want to be one of the guys bidding on the last of the tier players. You have to anticipate the tier ahead of time and buy one of the tier players and not get caught bidding on the last player, who will go for more than projected amount. I saw this happen repeatedly last year on the last player of the tier of #1 RBs.

FUBAR said:

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

Some leagues are hesitant to spend too much early.

Click to expand...

My experience is that this happens in almost every auction that I do for at least the first 3-4 picks. If I have an early nomination, I like to put up a guy I really want for this very reason.

Strategy is going to differ whether or not the league is new or has been established. I play in a well established auction league.

Number one thing for me is knowing the tendencies of the guys I'm drafting with. This includes going back to previous drafts and looking for things like what percentage of the cap do the top RBs usually go for, or how often does that one patriot fan in the league overpay for patriots, etc.

I haven't put a budget next to a player in years. It's just not valuable to me. That said, if the league is new or you are new to the particular league, you probably need budgets to have an overall sense of value. Absolutely do not stick with those values though.

It's better to spend more money early than it is to save too much and end up with a crappy roster. Don't take this to mean you should spend 90% of your cap on Charles, McCoy and Calvin, however. But do get a stud or two. Don't nitpick during the bidding on whether or not a player is the best value in his tier. You'll end up convincing yourself value will be there later, which may be the case, but the studs wont be. Pull the trigger on the guys you like, within reason.

There's always a guy who thinks he's better than everyone else by saving his money while everyone else is getting the good, more expensive players. He'll shake his head in disapproval, laughing gleefully knowing he still has all his cap space after the dust settles. Don't be that guy. He's the guy who will have $40 leftover at the end of the draft and have a starting RB corps of Lamar Miller and Danny Woodhead while in last place.

Then there's the hilarious scenario where two guys did the same thing and saved all their money "waiting for value" and they end up in a bidding war for Lamar Miller or Danny Woodhead because nobody else worth a #### is left, and the price for each ends up being the same as for guys in the first or second tier. That right there is how you know you've failed at an auction.

buck naked said:

FUBAR said:

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

Some leagues are hesitant to spend too much early.

Click to expand...

My experience is that this happens in almost every auction that I do for at least the first 3-4 picks. If I have an early nomination, I like to put up a guy I really want for this very reason.

Click to expand...

Mine has a bit of a feeding frenzie in the very early going. 4 or 5 guys just want to scratch that itch right away. Less so than it used to be, though. It gets more reasonable pretty quickly after the first handful of guys.

butcher boy said:

Strategy is going to differ whether or not the league is new or has been established. I play in a well established auction league.

Number one thing for me is knowing the tendencies of the guys I'm drafting with. This includes going back to previous drafts and looking for things like what percentage of the cap do the top RBs usually go for, or how often does that one patriot fan in the league overpay for patriots, etc.

I haven't put a budget next to a player in years. It's just not valuable to me. That said, if the league is new or you are new to the particular league, you probably need budgets to have an overall sense of value. Absolutely do not stick with those values though.

It's better to spend more money early than it is to save too much and end up with a crappy roster. Don't take this to mean you should spend 90% of your cap on Charles, McCoy and Calvin, however. But do get a stud or two. Don't nitpick during the bidding on whether or not a player is the best value in his tier. You'll end up convincing yourself value will be there later, which may be the case, but the studs wont be. Pull the trigger on the guys you like, within reason.

There's always a guy who thinks he's better than everyone else by saving his money while everyone else is getting the good, more expensive players. He'll shake his head in disapproval, laughing gleefully knowing he still has all his cap space after the dust settles. Don't be that guy. He's the guy who will have $40 leftover at the end of the draft and have a starting RB corps of Lamar Miller and Danny Woodhead while in last place.

Then there's the hilarious scenario where two guys did the same thing and saved all their money "waiting for value" and they end up in a bidding war for Lamar Miller or Danny Woodhead because nobody else worth a #### is left, and the price for each ends up being the same as for guys in the first or second tier. That right there is how you know you've failed at an auction.

Click to expand...

We're sort of in that position right now in a dynasty auction (no cap after the auction). Most teams have less than 25% of their $ left, some have less than 5%, a few have over 1/3. All of the top guys are long gone - best players left from last year aside from Gonzo are DTs or Corners who weren't in the top 150 overall. Guys like Jon Bostic are going for more than a few top 20 LBs went for earlier, I haven't noticed a price decrease although not as many are "overpriced" as went early.

Granted, the guys who spent all but a few bucks are left unable to get anyone of value now, but the guys who waited have sad looking teams.

Jeremy said:

buck naked said:

FUBAR said:

Some leagues are hesitant to spend too much early.

Click to expand...

My experience is that this happens in almost every auction that I do for at least the first 3-4 picks. If I have an early nomination, I like to put up a guy I really want for this very reason.

Click to expand...

Mine has a bit of a feeding frenzie in the very early going. 4 or 5 guys just want to scratch that itch right away. Less so than it used to be, though. It gets more reasonable pretty quickly after the first handful of guys.

Click to expand...

Yeah, this is what I see, too. Nobody in the first 12 picks will go under their AAV, no matter if you are nominating a guy who is normally a mid-round pick or 1st round pick.

Just out of curiosity...how are those of you targeting Jimmy Graham forming a budget? Figure you are going to have to spend around $50 to get him, or a quarter of your cap. He is obviously a beast but that's a whole lot of scratch. Then again, I paid 60 for Spiller last year....

I'll be shocked if Graham goes for that much in auctions this year. He went for around 35+ in most auctions I did last year, and I was figuring he'd go for maybe a touch more than that this year, closer to 40, so if he starts climbing into the mid to upper 40s, I'm definitely out.

A couple of quick points that haven't been addressed yet:

1. The number of teams in the league, along with starting lineup requirements, and total number of players rostered is very important. I do two auction leagues: one ten team and one sixteen team. The ten team league starts 8 and rosters 180 players. The sixteen team league starts 10 and rosters 320 players. My auction strategies are very different. In the ten team league, I go all out to roster as many studs as possible. I may spend 2/3 of my cap space to obtain 3 or 4 studs. In my 16 teamer, I'm much more patient because you have a much bigger roster to fill and you will have no depth if you are too aggressive.

2. Your FA budget is critical. My ten team league gives each team $60 mythical dollars to spend. That has proven to be a generous amount, allowing for lots of roster turnover. As that league only rosters 180 total players, finding a quality reserve, especially at QB, had never been an issue. If you have a shallow player pool and a generous FA budget, you can always be more aggressive at the auction. In that league, I typically have 6 or 7 $1 players at the end of the auction and can easily turn those players over on the WW as players emerge. In my 16 team league (320 total players rostered), finding depth on the WW is a dubious proposition at best, so I need to be more cautious to have at least some depth.

Ghost Rider said:

I'll be shocked if Graham goes for that much in auctions this year. He went for around 35+ in most auctions I did last year, and I was figuring he'd go for maybe a touch more than that this year, closer to 40, so if he starts climbing into the mid to upper 40s, I'm definitely out.

Click to expand...

Every auction is different. Mine has a $99 cap and top guys like Graham or Charles will easily go for over $40. It's one of the reasons why I have reservations about using strict budgeted values. You can find yourself passing on all the good players.

Graham will probably go 20-25% in my 12 team league. Non-ppr with no flex spots.

I'll probably pass at that price. Would rather try to get Gronk for a lot less, and failing that go for a couple of the cheaper late round guys. I think my big splash will be at the RB position this year.

how much do you guys typically spend on your starting roster. i usually shoot for at least 85% and would go up to 90% depending on what value is there

ldizzle said:

how much do you guys typically spend on your starting roster. i usually shoot for at least 85% and would go up to 90% depending on what value is there

Click to expand...

That's fairly league dependent, to some extent.

In my keep-5 2QB league, for instance, the league average is around 80-85% (using the full "value" of players here, since many keepers are well below market value). I did some analysis a few years back and there was no real difference in success rate based on percentage of budget spent on starters, assuming it was at least 75%. Though to be fair, making the playoffs (my definition of "success" for that analysis) is often a function of finding a sleeper target that vastly outperforms expectations, and that has very little to due with budget.

I think for small-roster leagues (no more than 2x roster spots as your starting lineup), you want to err on the side of overspending since you have a lot more options on the waiver wire should one of your big-ticket players get injured or otherwise underperform. For deeper leagues, however, you probably want to save a bit more for quality depth for the inevitable injury.

Budgets and values are all but useless.

If the rest of your league isn't in line with them, you may as well throw em out the window.

Be flexible, do a crap ton of practice auctions to get a feel, have fun.

Anyone get the sense that there is more variability in auction prices than redraft ADP?

Just reading the Ellington thread and it seems to me there is more of a value drop in auction to be expected from the McCoy/Charles/AP top tier down to the 2nd or 3rd tier of RBs such as Martin and Ellington and Gerhart.

Auctions tilt towards the elite players, especially in 10 or 12 team leagues.

Your "middle class" players typically come at a financial discount.

bleachercreacher said:

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

One thing I'll add to this. If there's a player that you want and the rest of your strategy depends on it, throw him out early. If not, you'll possibly miss out on a few other guys. For an example lets use Jimmy Graham. Last year he went for more than double the next TE in my local auction. With other TE's closing the gap, I expect him to go for less this year following my leagues history. I'll already know I want him if I can get him for less than $X, but if not I want to wait until late for TE. I'm going to nominate him very early, so I'll free up the money to spend elsewhere. On the other hand,if you were wanting Gronk or Julius Thomas, you might try to nomiate them first. Other owners wanting Jimmy Graham will wait to bid.

Click to expand...

This is an excellent point.

.

pollardsvision said:

bleachercreacher said:

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

One thing I'll add to this. If there's a player that you want and the rest of your strategy depends on it, throw him out early. If not, you'll possibly miss out on a few other guys. For an example lets use Jimmy Graham. Last year he went for more than double the next TE in my local auction. With other TE's closing the gap, I expect him to go for less this year following my leagues history. I'll already know I want him if I can get him for less than $X, but if not I want to wait until late for TE. I'm going to nominate him very early, so I'll free up the money to spend elsewhere. On the other hand,if you were wanting Gronk or Julius Thomas, you might try to nomiate them first. Other owners wanting Jimmy Graham will wait to bid.

Click to expand...

This is an excellent point.

Click to expand...

I used this strategy last weekend at a live auction. I wanted the cheapest of the top 4 RB's. This was the 7th year of the auction, so I had a really good idea what everyone would go for. I won the first nomination, so I threw out Matt Forte first. I won him for 16% of the budget, which was enough of a discount to adjust my strategy and get Jamaal Charles next at 22%. Peterson was the next RB nominated, and went for 30% of the budget, which is about where the top RB's generally go in my league. There were 4 owners salivating over McCoy, who was nominated late in the first. McCoy went for 42% of the budget. All of the owners waiting on McCoy missed out on the first 9 nominations because they were waiting on their guy, and all of there teams suffered because of it. I was able to get 2 top RB's at a steep discount, and still end up with 2 more top 24 players because of it.

Also, if you end up being the owner that misses out on a player that you really want, you have to adjust your strategy quick. In the situation above, so many owners have budgeted $X for RB's and will end up overpaying for their RB's regardless of who they get. I like to look at it as having a late first round pick. I adjust my budget around, and look for top QB's, WR's and TE's. You absolutely cannot overpay for lesser RB's, and then spend the same you had budgeted for to fill out your roster. On top of being upset that you didn't get your guy, you will more than likely end up with a mediocre team.

SaintsInDome2006 said:

Anyone get the sense that there is more variability in auction prices than redraft ADP?

Just reading the Ellington thread and it seems to me there is more of a value drop in auction to be expected from the McCoy/Charles/AP top tier down to the 2nd or 3rd tier of RBs such as Martin and Ellington and Gerhart.

Click to expand...

I'm noticing that too. At QB for example, the tier of Manning/Brees/Rodgers is going for $40+ in mocks, but guys like Ryan and Luck are lucky to hit $15. That doesn't seem proportional to their value. The thing is though, you can get a lot of 2-4th tier guys cheap and still have enough to spend on an elite guy.

Always look forward to this thread getting started each year. Already a lot of good advice out there. One other thing I'll throw out, as I usually try to do when discussing auctions:

One of the most overlooked differences between a snake and an auction draft is in the "mid-roster" players ...the guys who would be going in the 9th, 10th, 11th rounds in snake drafts and who are right on the breakpoint between $1 and $2 in auctions. In a snake draft, the difference between, say, Anquan Boldin and Kenny Stills may be one or two draft slots, while that between Stills and Jerricho Cotchery could be 5-6 rounds. But in an auction, Stills might be literally half the cost of Boldin, and the same price as Cotchery.

For that reason, after the bulk of the every-week starters have gone off the board, I want to fill out the rest of my roster quickly! I'm nominating exclusively guys who I feel are "worth" $2 or $4 and trying to get them for $1 or $3 - because every dollar counts in an auction setting, especially late. In every fantasy auction there are a bunch of owners who save their last $10 until the last hour and pat themselves on the back for snatching up handfuls of $1 "overlooked sleepers" with 15th-round ADPs who, if all goes right, might deliver 10th-round value. To hell with that: I want a bench full of guys who actually are 10th-round ADPs, and whom I've bought at the exact same price.

Doing my first auction draft this year in a league that is brand-new.

As I read through the above, I feel like the general strategy would be to have several high-dollar players and several $1 flyers and not much in between. Is this accurate?

Jeremy said:

fightingillini said:

Junior McSpiffy said:

The part of auction strategies (I've only done one) that fascinates me is the nominating process. How do you decide when to put up someone you want and will go to the wall to get, and when do you put up someone you thikn everyone else likes and you just want to soak up some of their budget for later acquisitions?

Click to expand...

Most say that you nominate a player that you don't want so that it drains other owners cap space. I don't totally agree with that. I mix it up, nominating some I want and some that I don't want, so that my leaguemates don't get a read on me.

My thoughts on nomination process are:

1) If you really like a mid tier guy (say you think Nick Foles is a top 5 QB), then a great strategy is to nominate him early and try and steal him at a discount. You will eliminate the guys that are going after the elite QBs, and many others are not going to overpay for Foles when they can get another QB like Romo later in the auction, and want to save their cash to big bid on RBs and elite WRs. Nominate Foles early, and there's a good chance that you're walking away with him with at least a 10% discount to market, and at worst case, you get him at market value (which is less than your value since you think Foles is a top 5 QB).

2) I also like to nominate guys that are the last in a tier. Say I have already purchased McCoy, and Forte is the last of the Big 4 RBs left. I will nominate Forte and let the bidding war begin, since the last players in a tier tend to be overpriced.

3) I also like to nominate a position that I have already filled. If I just drafted my QB and many other owners haven't drafted theirs, then I will nominate the best QB left on the board. Or if I have already drafted a stud WR, I will nominate another stud WR.

4) Another good strategy is to nominate your best kicker or defense early for $1. If you win them, great. If not, someone else had to pay $2 or more to draft them, and that's great too, since you should never bid more than a $1 for a kicker or a defense....(in most leagues with typical D scoring).

5) Try and not nominate any sleepers until much later in the draft. because it's hard to steal these players at a discount, until owners get cash strapped.

Click to expand...

I especially agree with 2 and 3.

I will say this though, regarding sleepers. I sometimes like to throw the sleeper de jour out early to mess with people. A couple teams are likely thinking they don't have budget for TE because they'll just get Ladarius Green for the minimum and he'll break out. Or even not necessarily a sleeper, but a perceived cheaper guy like Toby Gerhart or Andre Ellington who they assume they can get for less than half of the bigger names after the feeding frenzy is over.

It really messes up their gameplan because they've planned for those guys to be bargains when setting their budget. But now people still have money, and now the decision is before them much sooner than they had planned. A lot of times they end up spending much more than they had planned, or they'll panic and freeze. I really pissed off a guy doing that with Jermichael Finely before most people knew who he was. And with a few others. You can hear them curse under their breath. Those are the moments you live for in an auction draft.

Click to expand...

Again, I have no experience in this, but this makes sense to me. Maybe I don't understand the mechanics of this, but why would I not want to nominate all low-dollar guys in the first few rounds? Either people don't want to blow their money early, or they overpay, potentially driving down prices on other players.

What is the downside?

What are other strategies and/or philosophies on which players you nominate? Does it even matter who you choose, since everyone will have a chance on every player? I guess you can control the starting bid and possibly get a player cheaper than if someone else nominates him at a higher price?

Long Ball Larry said:

Doing my first auction draft this year in a league that is brand-new.

As I read through the above, I feel like the general strategy would be to have several high-dollar players and several $1 flyers and not much in between. Is this accurate?

Click to expand...

Not really, although that is a strategy I've seen work. It's really risky though. You want more cap room at the end of the auction to be able to bid $2-$4 on your scrubs otherwise if you only have $1 left to spend on them you'll end up with the scrubs nobody else wants.

You can get 1-2 high dollar players and still have money for several middle tier guys. I think that's a key point. You don't have to pass on all the elite talent to get value in the middle rounds.

ldizzle said:

how much do you guys typically spend on your starting roster. i usually shoot for at least 85% and would go up to 90% depending on what value is there

Click to expand...

Ideally, 100% of your discretionary budget should be spent on starters. A player who doesn't start for you contributes no fantasy points toward your bottom line, so you shouldn't be willing to pay anything for him above the $1 minimum bid.

The problem is that you don't know ahead of time which players will be your starters. Let's say you've already got Cam Newton at QB, and now you're considering bidding on Andy Dalton. If you knew with 100% certainty that you'd start Cam Newton every week, Andy Dalton would have no value to you, so you should not bid anything on him (except the $1 minimum to fill out your roster). But in fact, you can't know that. For one thing, Newton has a bye. But more importantly, Newton might have an unexpectedly poor season, or Dalton might have an unexpectedly awesome season. Your best guess, in terms of expectation, might be that Newton will start 12 games for you and Dalton, if you get him, would start five. In that case, Dalton has more than zero value to you, and you should be willing to spend more than the $1 minimum on him (or another "backup" QB) if that's what it takes.

That said, I generally aim to spend around 90% of my discretionary budget on presumed "starters" and the other 10% on presumed "backups." But I'm willing to deviate for the right deal. If I already have my three starters at WR, for example, and Vincent Jackson is going for half of what he should go for, I'll grab him as a "backup" even if it gives me less to spend on a "starter" at another position. (Though I'd likely take a chunk of Jackson's price out of my budget for other backups rather than for starters.) But my default is to aim for a 90-10 split.

(The above does not apply to best-ball leagues. In best-ball leagues, it's closer to 50-50 than 90-10.)

Ack88 said:

Auctions tilt towards the elite players, especially in 10 or 12 team leagues.

Your "middle class" players typically come at a financial discount.

Click to expand...

Yes, that is typical in a lot of leagues. I still aim for a 90-10 split in these leagues, but I do it while avoiding the top (arguably overpriced) players and loading up on players a couple tiers down from there.

For example, let's say I'm in a 12-team league with 18-man rosters that starts 1/2/3/1/1/1 (no flex). Salary cap is $200. Since there are 18 roster spots, that gives me a discretionary budget of $182. Assume I'll pay no more than $8 combined for my kicker and defense. That leaves me $176 discretionary dollars for the rest of my lineup, which will consist of 7 "starters" and 9 "backups".

My 90-10 rule says I should allocate about 158 discretionary dollars (165 total dollars) to "starters" and about 18 discretionary dollars (27 total dollars) to "backups".

158 discretionary dollars on 7 "starters" is $22.6 discretionary dollars ($23.6 total dollars) per "starter".

Since the $60 studs tend to be overpriced (IMO), rather than pairing a $60 stud with a couple of really cheap "starters," I instead spend about $23 on each starter.

So I'm not looking for a starting WR stable of WR2, WR36, and WR40. I'm instead looking for something more like WR13, WR14, and WR15 -- the guys bunched up at around $23 (i.e., about 11% of the cap). I may have a weaker WR1 than other owners, but I have a stronger WR2 and a much stronger WR3. Also, 11% of the cap is generally enough to get an above-average QB1 and above-average TE1.

If you look at one of my auction teams as if it were from a serpentine draft, it would look like I traded my first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh rounders for six third-rounders (giving me seven third-rounders total).

And that leaves me $3 per backup, on average, which is plenty. You can get some decent players for $3 when a lot of other people leave themselves $1 or $2 per player by the latter third of the auction.

In those rare auctions where the very top guys are not overpriced, that strategy goes out the window and I bid on Jamaal Charles instead.

In a start 2 QB league, would the strategy be any different? Especially considering this year that there are 3 top guys and then a ton of guys very close, it probably makes more sense to try to get something like QB10 & QB11, right?

Here are the values I see on fantasy pros (FWIW). A combo of 2 of Ryan, Brady, Wilson, Romo seems insanely more valuable.

Manning - $45

Rodgers - $41

Brees - 39

Stafford- 23

Luck - 21

Newton - 20

RGIII - 15

Foles - 14

Kaep - 12

Ryan - 11

Brady - 11

Wilson - 9

Romo - 9

Rivers - 9

cutler - 7

Roeth - 6

Dalton - 6

[SIZE=10.5pt]I have been doing one auction league and one snake league for several years now, and the prep process for auctions is much more rewarding. Some things I have learned based on various FBG / numberfire articles and my own auction experiences:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]1) Make sure you get some elite players (duh)[/SIZE]

The game ultimately comes down to having an advantage over your opponents at several positions. Knowing which players will be elite isn't a certainty, and that's the game. MT's strategy above is to give up the 1st round pick for a few 3rd rounders...league size will have some influence here, but I think you need those studs.

[SIZE=10.5pt]While one of your goals is to capitalize on undervalued assets, you also need a relatively consistent, predictable anchor for your team. I find it hard to win without a 1st round pick even if you acquire three 3rd round picks. Sure, you may guess right on the Antonio Browns of 2014, but why make yourself guess on 3 of them? [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]The elite group of WRs (based on pre-season ADP) tends to see less turnover than the same group of RBs. However, the elite RBs tend to outperform their peers more greatly than the elite WRs vs. their own peers. Again, knowing which guys will be "elite" is the entire game, so it's your choice which position to invest in, but I advocate for buying some pre-season studs. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]2) [/SIZE] Inflation occurs during the draft

[SIZE=10.5pt]Participants don't really know the market price for a tier of players until the market actually sets it (whether you agree with the market is a different issue), so you could see huge inflation relative to your pre-determined auction values. If your league website lists Peterson at $59 and you value him at $63, will he go for $59, $62 or $70? Whatever it is, you can then expect McCoy/Charles to follow suit as the market is anchored to that price (although this obviously won’t continue forever – people won’t anchor the price of every RB to the first stud that goes, but it will certainly impact players in his tier).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I'm ok with overpaying for guys as long as other players in the same tier are equivalent. I'm getting the same value as the other owners for the same price, and while some other guy will likely have a better shot at nabbing those "value" picks later on, they probably won't have the studs (and again, imo, you should buy at least one anchor)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]3) Don’t value players, value tiers … and know which tiers you are targeting[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]While you obviously need an idea of which players to invest in (who will bust / breakout, who is under/overvalued, etc.), you should have a strong sense of budget allocation based on which positions you want to invest in. For example, I value RBs heavily in my small league (standard ESPN 10-team non-PPR), so I want to invest in elite RBs, wait on QB/TE, and just pick off value at WR. In my larger 16-team league, I’m much more open to drafting a QB/TE early, but will still wait on WR. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]My small-league board is a work in progress, but currently looks like: [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB - 2[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB - 60[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB - 40[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR - 20[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR - 13[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]FLEX - 25 (RB)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TE - 3[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]PK / DEF - 1[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Bench – 5 (RB4)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Total: $170[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I budget 80% of my $200 (i.e., $180) to my starters plus RB4 (assuming I take RB3 as Flex). The remaining 20% goes to my other 6 bench spots. A tip from another FBG in last season's thread was to use a slush fund, which is why I only budget $170 + $20 out of the $200. I can increase any of the above values by up to $10 with no recalculating necessary, which allows me to be flexible on the spot. I don’t know if McCoy will go for $58 or $65, but I’m covered both ways. If Michael Floyd then goes for $16 instead of $12, I’m also still good. I’m not valuing those individual players, I’m valuing the tier they sit in.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]4) Dont bank on drafting any one individual player [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]All it takes is two teams for the price of Andre Ellington to hit an amount which sucks the value out of the pick. Also, there is usually that one ultra-conservative team who ultimately fails to buy a stud and then overspends greatly on those “mid-round value picks”.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Plenty of other ideas, but that's a good spot to start [/SIZE]

fightingillini said:

Start by doing your projections and coverting them into auction values. Dodds' VBD spreadsheet is a good tool for that. Then put down the "market prices" for each player. That way, you will see which players you think are undervalued and which are overvalued.

Click to expand...

I don't have a subscription, but I followed this methodology, which is basically the same thing as you are describing: http://thebiglead.com/2011/08/28/setting-auction-values-for-your-draft/

I think I did it ok, but would anyone be able to comment if they think some of my values seem right? This is PPR, 6 point Passing TD, start 2 QB/ 2 RB/ 3 WR/ 1 TE/ 1 Flex/ 1 DST/ 1 K, with 18 man rosters,

I was guessing that 36 QBs, 48 RBs, 66 WR, 24 TE, and maybe 15 DST and 12 K would be drafted. That's 201 players, so just short, but I figured close enough to get the lowest baseline.

Here's a smattering since I don't really know how to post tables. Just seeing if these values seem reasonable relative to one another.

QB

Manning- 63.80

Brees - 55.10

Rodgers 53.22

Stafford 44.11

Foles 38.93

Ryan 37.61

then numbers 7-24 go down about 1 per player from 37.56-22.21

RB

Charles - 39.84

Forte 33.68

McCoy - 31.31

PEterson - 26.47

then numbers 5-25 down from 23.13-9.48

WR

Calvin - 36.55

DT- 34.61

Julio -30.05

Dez - 29.35

Marshall - 29.33

the numbers 6-30 down from 28.42-9.56

TE

Graham - 34.49

Thomas - 22.85

Gronk - 18.60

Witten - 14.84

Cameron - 13.91

then numbers 6-24 down from 11.78-$1.00

Great conversation.

One issue I'm having with all the great tools FBG offers is my estimated dollar values for players is fluctuating greatly between DD & VBD Excel even though all of the league setting are set up identical.

So I'm really not sure WHAT IM WILLING TO SPEND on some of these players, because despite the same projected fantasy points, VBD tells me a player is worth $70, while DD says $50.

Tons of examples of this.

PitBoss55 said:

Great conversation.

One issue I'm having with all the great tools FBG offers is my estimated dollar values for players is fluctuating greatly between DD & VBD Excel even though all of the league setting are set up identical.

So I'm really not sure WHAT IM WILLING TO SPEND on some of these players, because despite the same projected fantasy points, VBD tells me a player is worth $70, while DD says $50.

Tons of examples of this.

Click to expand...

Don't get hung up on the actual $$ value of the players that either program spits out. The best way to price out your players is to look at how much the equivalently ranked players in previous years went for in your league. Drafting tendencies of your leaguemates is a far better predictor of prices than anything DD will spit out.

If it's a new league, then it's really tough without the history. If I were in this situation and it was a standard $200 cap league, I'd probably look at the average amounts the players are going for in yahoo and espn mocks and use those as a baseline.