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Beat The Streak (1 Viewer)

I've tried this unsuccessfully for years. I have these grand illusions that I will escaping working the rest of my life by picking a 57-game hit streak. Dare to dream.

My streak is at 1, by the way.

 
'RnR said:
I've tried this unsuccessfully for years. I have these grand illusions that I will escaping working the rest of my life by picking a 57-game hit streak. Dare to dream.

My streak is at 1, by the way.
Click to expand...
How long have they been running the contest? This just doesn't seem THAT unlikely. If you can get your daily chance up to 92.5% there is a 1% chance you win on your first 57 tries. If you just randomly pick a .300 hitter who gets 5 at bats your probability of winning on any given day is 84%.
 
'gonzobill5 said:
'RnR said:
I've tried this unsuccessfully for years. I have these grand illusions that I will escaping working the rest of my life by picking a 57-game hit streak. Dare to dream.

My streak is at 1, by the way.
Click to expand...
How long have they been running the contest? This just doesn't seem THAT unlikely. If you can get your daily chance up to 92.5% there is a 1% chance you win on your first 57 tries. If you just randomly pick a .300 hitter who gets 5 at bats your probability of winning on any given day is 84%.
Click to expand...
It has been going for probably 9 or 10 years. No one has ever done it. I've topped 20 once, but that's as far as I've made it.
 
Starting to run some numbers. The key to me is to pin down a good way to predict when a player will get 5+ plate appearances in a game.

-A .300 hitter has a better chance than a .350 hitter to get a one or more hits if the .300 hitter gets 5 at bats and the .350 hitter only gets 4.

-In 2011, when Ichiro got 5+ plate appearances he got a hit 92% of the time (as opposed to just 80% in all games)

 
Thanks for the post. Years ago I did this on an obscure baseball site (can't remember the name of the site). It was exactly the same thing with no monetary prize. I think something in the 10-15 range was the best I did. Seems like it'd be a lot easier than it is. I'll give it another try.

 
I remember always choosing hitters on the road as they were guaranteed to get 9 innings of AB's (if you choose a home-team player, they might only get 8 innings in). Also, always tried to pick batters on teams with good offenses against a bad pitcher.

 
I've always favored hitter history against the starting pitcher, and MLB.com makes it pretty easy to track that now. Another piece of info to consider each day.

 
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.

 
'gonzobill5 said:
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better, that turned out to be Hamilton's only AB of the day as he left with an injury.
 
'RnR said:
'gonzobill5 said:
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better, that turned out to be Hamilton's only AB of the day as he left with an injury.
Click to expand...
Yep and the yankees game was ppd. I thought that meant I lost, but not so. I went with Votto yesterday and the streak is at 5. I'm still trying to predict with some accuracy the number of at-bats a player will get in a game. Has this been done before? I don't care to re-invent the wheel. Right now, I've considered the following-home team or road team (for the road team I set 3 at bats as a my baseline and for the home team i set 2.83)-average team at bats per game -position in the lineup-opposing starters WHIP-opposing bullpen WHIP (haven't found data on this yet)Going with Braun today. Was going to go with Ichiro, but I was really surprised to see that Bruce Chen has turned himself into a decent starter in this league. Like I said, I haven't really followed baseball in years.
 
'gonzobill5 said:
'RnR said:
'gonzobill5 said:
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better, that turned out to be Hamilton's only AB of the day as he left with an injury.
Click to expand...
Yep and the yankees game was ppd. I thought that meant I lost, but not so. I went with Votto yesterday and the streak is at 5. I'm still trying to predict with some accuracy the number of at-bats a player will get in a game. Has this been done before? I don't care to re-invent the wheel. Right now, I've considered the following

-home team or road team (for the road team I set 3 at bats as a my baseline and for the home team i set 2.83)

-average team at bats per game

-position in the lineup

-opposing starters WHIP

-opposing bullpen WHIP (haven't found data on this yet)

Going with Braun today. Was going to go with Ichiro, but I was really surprised to see that Bruce Chen has turned himself into a decent starter in this league. Like I said, I haven't really followed baseball in years.
Click to expand...
can you explain how this works? Thanks.

 
Pretty sure if your player's game gets rained out, your streak remains until the next day.

 
'gonzobill5 said:
'RnR said:
'gonzobill5 said:
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better, that turned out to be Hamilton's only AB of the day as he left with an injury.
Click to expand...
Yep and the yankees game was ppd. I thought that meant I lost, but not so. I went with Votto yesterday and the streak is at 5. I'm still trying to predict with some accuracy the number of at-bats a player will get in a game. Has this been done before? I don't care to re-invent the wheel. Right now, I've considered the following

-home team or road team (for the road team I set 3 at bats as a my baseline and for the home team i set 2.83)

-average team at bats per game

-position in the lineup

-opposing starters WHIP

-opposing bullpen WHIP (haven't found data on this yet)

Going with Braun today. Was going to go with Ichiro, but I was really surprised to see that Bruce Chen has turned himself into a decent starter in this league. Like I said, I haven't really followed baseball in years.
Click to expand...
This is on ESPN under "Expanded II Pitching Stats".http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128/type/expanded-2

From the Splits drop down menu sort by "As Reliever".

 
I find a good hitter who took a collar the night before, going against a pitcher who's struggling. Markakis was 0-4 last night, facing Phil Hughes today. Kake went 3-5, got me streaking at 3! :thumbup:

 
'sports_fan said:
'gonzobill5 said:
'RnR said:
'gonzobill5 said:
had to make a last minute decision today. i was between cano and hamilton. went with cano. after seeing hamilton get a hit in his first at bat, I'm certain that I'm doomed. I love that this contest has gotten me back into baseball. Aside from the phils, I haven't really followed any other teams or individual players since '94.
Click to expand...
If it makes you feel any better, that turned out to be Hamilton's only AB of the day as he left with an injury.
Click to expand...
Yep and the yankees game was ppd. I thought that meant I lost, but not so. I went with Votto yesterday and the streak is at 5. I'm still trying to predict with some accuracy the number of at-bats a player will get in a game. Has this been done before? I don't care to re-invent the wheel. Right now, I've considered the following

-home team or road team (for the road team I set 3 at bats as a my baseline and for the home team i set 2.83)

-average team at bats per game

-position in the lineup

-opposing starters WHIP

-opposing bullpen WHIP (haven't found data on this yet)

Going with Braun today. Was going to go with Ichiro, but I was really surprised to see that Bruce Chen has turned himself into a decent starter in this league. Like I said, I haven't really followed baseball in years.
Click to expand...
This is on ESPN under "Expanded II Pitching Stats".http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/pitching/split/128/type/expanded-2

From the Splits drop down menu sort by "As Reliever".
Click to expand...
Thanks for this! Damn you Braun with two walks and no hits, I'm back to zero. I actually tried to switch to Tuluwitzski but didn't realize he was in a double header. Of course he gets hits in both games.
 
So the Jumpstart Pick is only used when you don't make a selection and if your streak is less than 3 games? Seems kind of pointless.

 
I have played in this for a few years now and have had a couple of streaks reach into the 30's. It really starts to get exciting then. I always look for a hitter who is going against a bad pitcher, he has a high career BA against that pitcher AND he is hitting over .300 for the season. I started a little late this year but I'm 5-5 so far. Would be cool if someone here was to win it.

 
5-for-5 on my picks. But my streak is at 4 games because I forgot to pick someone on my 2nd day. It's keeping me entertained. I'm hoping for at least one 20+ game streak on the season.

The main things I'm looking at right now are: (1) opposing pitcher (obviously you want to be facing someone bad), (2) batting order position (where he's been hitting in the order for most of the season), and (3) lefty/righty splits (I usually look for a lefty vs. righty matchup or vice-versa). I don't think the stats against the opposing pitcher are very telling due to the tiny sample size.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
'gonzobill5 said:
Thanks for this! Damn you Braun with two walks and no hits, I'm back to zero. I actually tried to switch to Tuluwitzski but didn't realize he was in a double header. Of course he gets hits in both games.
Click to expand...
If a player you select (including any Jumpstart Pick) does not play during the Game Day for which you selected him for any reason other than his MLB Club not being scheduled to play, your streak will NOT end. A hitting streak will also NOT end if each of the selected player's (including Jumpstart Pick) plate appearances (one or more) result in a base on balls, hit batsman, defensive interference or a sacrifice bunt. A hitting streak will end if the player has a sacrifice fly and no hit. Except as set forth in the Suspended Games Sections below, your streak will remain intact in the event of any cancelled or postponed MLB game.
Click to expand...
Am I missing something with that? I had a streak end as well, but my player did have a BB.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
'uwgb96 said:
'gonzobill5 said:
Thanks for this! Damn you Braun with two walks and no hits, I'm back to zero. I actually tried to switch to Tuluwitzski but didn't realize he was in a double header. Of course he gets hits in both games.
Click to expand...
If a player you select (including any Jumpstart Pick) does not play during the Game Day for which you selected him for any reason other than his MLB Club not being scheduled to play, your streak will NOT end. A hitting streak will also NOT end if each of the selected player's (including Jumpstart Pick) plate appearances (one or more) result in a base on balls, hit batsman, defensive interference or a sacrifice bunt. A hitting streak will end if the player has a sacrifice fly and no hit. Except as set forth in the Suspended Games Sections below, your streak will remain intact in the event of any cancelled or postponed MLB game.
Click to expand...
Am I missing something with that? I had a streak end as well, but my player did have a BB.
Click to expand...
It says if every plate appearance ends in those results.In other words, if the guy goes 0-0, your streak doesnt end (as long as none of the 0-0 is a sacrifice fly).

 
'the moops said:
'uwgb96 said:
'gonzobill5 said:
Thanks for this! Damn you Braun with two walks and no hits, I'm back to zero. I actually tried to switch to Tuluwitzski but didn't realize he was in a double header. Of course he gets hits in both games.
Click to expand...
If a player you select (including any Jumpstart Pick) does not play during the Game Day for which you selected him for any reason other than his MLB Club not being scheduled to play, your streak will NOT end. A hitting streak will also NOT end if each of the selected player's (including Jumpstart Pick) plate appearances (one or more) result in a base on balls, hit batsman, defensive interference or a sacrifice bunt. A hitting streak will end if the player has a sacrifice fly and no hit. Except as set forth in the Suspended Games Sections below, your streak will remain intact in the event of any cancelled or postponed MLB game.
Click to expand...
Am I missing something with that? I had a streak end as well, but my player did have a BB.
Click to expand...
It says if every plate appearance ends in those results.In other words, if the guy goes 0-0, your streak doesnt end (as long as none of the 0-0 is a sacrifice fly).
Click to expand...
Well that certainly makes sense. Thanks.
 
streak is back up to 3. one annoying thing i found is that i signed my father up for one on my computer and can't figure out how to log him out. i guess they do this so people don't have multiple accounts.

 
'RnR said:
'gonzobill5 said:
'RnR said:
I've tried this unsuccessfully for years. I have these grand illusions that I will escaping working the rest of my life by picking a 57-game hit streak. Dare to dream.

My streak is at 1, by the way.
Click to expand...
How long have they been running the contest? This just doesn't seem THAT unlikely. If you can get your daily chance up to 92.5% there is a 1% chance you win on your first 57 tries. If you just randomly pick a .300 hitter who gets 5 at bats your probability of winning on any given day is 84%.
Click to expand...
It has been going for probably 9 or 10 years. No one has ever done it. I've topped 20 once, but that's as far as I've made it.
Click to expand...
I signed up one year. I think it was 2005. I only played for half a season. I had an 11-game hitting streak at one point. Giving it another shot is something I should do.
 
wow i suck at this. i thought i was going to be on vacation, so i put a bunch of picks in advance. first, i picked abreu last week and he was the only player on the angels not to get a hit. then i picked 2 consecutive rain outs. i still want to settle down on a method one of these days, but right now i'm just eyeballin it. Streak is back at 3 thanks to ethier tonight. I'm rolling with Tulo for the next few days.

 
I think I've only had one streak busted up by a guy going 0-fer so far. Rest due to rain out or benching. This is hard to do if you don't check lineups every day. The early start locks are the hardest.

 
'sports_fan said:
'culdeus said:
rain out in CHI. for ####s sake.
Click to expand...
I don't think this ends your streak.
Click to expand...
Nope. I think it could if they make it up within 3 days or something. I'm rolling with Fokudome today. If I lose, at least I get to yell FOKUDOME! I've started avoiding players with a history against the opposing pitcher. If a guy kills a pitcher, obviously that pitcher knows it and is going to pitch around them at all costs. I think this might explain why this contest hasn't been won already. They list it right there as you make your choice...if this info helped your odds at all, someone should have won this just by random luck.
 
Got Ike Davis trying to get me to 10 tonight. 0-for-1 with a walk so far.

I imagine this gets really nerve-wracking as you get higher.

ETA: :towelwave:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's interesting how the site actually points out favorable matchups for you. It's like they want you to win...

I'm going with Tulo against Maholm tomorrow. Fowler is also apparently a good matchup (9 for 17 lifetime).

Or you could just be lazy and ride Andre Ethier to glory. :coffee:

 
Billy Butler's complete ownage of Pavano continues. That makes 4.

Monday: Holliday vs. Volstad

 
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