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Perennial Slow Starters and Strong Second Half Finishers (1 Viewer)

Jetznut674

Jetznut674

Footballguy
Looking for this info as I prepare for my draft this week - any link or your responses would be greatly appreciated!

 
YoGa is the poster child for slow starter's.

Generally speaking vets start off faster as they are fresher and kids have a tendency to press if they start slow. Get a balance between them,

 
I don't think this is a factor worth worrying about before a draft. It's far too random due to the small sample size.

You can use it effectively after the draft during the first two months of the season if owners bail prematurely on players.

 
Eephus said:
I don't think this is a factor worth worrying about before a draft. It's far too random due to the small sample size.

You can use it effectively after the draft during the first two months of the season if owners bail prematurely on players.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. By the time a player builds up a statistically significant sample of monthly splits, his career will be almost over.

That said, drafting Troy Glaus and trading him around Memorial Day used to work out really well for me.

 
Spartans Rule said:
Eephus said:
I don't think this is a factor worth worrying about before a draft. It's far too random due to the small sample size.

You can use it effectively after the draft during the first two months of the season if owners bail prematurely on players.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. By the time a player builds up a statistically significant sample of monthly splits, his career will be almost over.

That said, drafting Troy Glaus and trading him around Memorial Day used to work out really well for me.
Click to expand...
I also agree.

The opposite is more worrisome (strong starters/weak finishers) because you don't notice it for awhile. Jason Kipnis and Jean Segura slowly killed my team in the second half.

 
Encyclopedia Brown said:
Spartans Rule said:
Eephus said:
I don't think this is a factor worth worrying about before a draft. It's far too random due to the small sample size.

You can use it effectively after the draft during the first two months of the season if owners bail prematurely on players.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. By the time a player builds up a statistically significant sample of monthly splits, his career will be almost over.

That said, drafting Troy Glaus and trading him around Memorial Day used to work out really well for me.
Click to expand...
I also agree.

The opposite is more worrisome (strong starters/weak finishers) because you don't notice it for awhile. Jason Kipnis and Jean Segura slowly killed my team in the second half.
Click to expand...
Picked up Kelly Johnson, rode the lighting, dropped him.

Picked up Marlon Bryd in all leagues in June, kept him until the end of the season. Got Ubaldo, Liriano, and Matt Adams off the wire last year too.

Jay Bruce is usually a slow starter, but he's always going to make it up at some point. Guys are up and down, but hopefully they can figure stuff out by June when you are ready to drop them. Sometimes I wait too long, sometimes I drop too early. It's a game of roulette with these middling/streaky guys.

 
Encyclopedia Brown said:
Spartans Rule said:
Eephus said:
I don't think this is a factor worth worrying about before a draft. It's far too random due to the small sample size.

You can use it effectively after the draft during the first two months of the season if owners bail prematurely on players.
Click to expand...
Agree with this. By the time a player builds up a statistically significant sample of monthly splits, his career will be almost over.

That said, drafting Troy Glaus and trading him around Memorial Day used to work out really well for me.
Click to expand...
I also agree.

The opposite is more worrisome (strong starters/weak finishers) because you don't notice it for awhile. Jason Kipnis and Jean Segura slowly killed my team in the second half.
Click to expand...
It's a lot easier to spot fast starters who are producing at unsustainably high levels. BABIP and HR/FB% are probably the easiest indicators. There is occasionally a guy who makes the leap but even Kipnis, Segura and Chris Davis came back to earth.

 
Sluggers in cold weather areas. It's pretty much impossible to hit it out of normally fair parks in Cleve,Pitts,etc during April.

 
cheese said:
Sluggers in cold weather areas. It's pretty much impossible to hit it out of normally fair parks in Cleve,Pitts,etc during April.
Click to expand...
This is a great point. I read somewhere that much of the favourable park effects from Rogers Centre in Toronto come from it having warm weather in April/May, where more runs are scored there than in similar sized parks.

 
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