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Jonas Gray (RB - New England) (1 Viewer)
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
this is in regards to the big indy game
I haven't watched the clip yet, but I think it might be referenced in belichick's breakdowns
Or is ineffective. Can't stress it enough that if the game was close, and Blount and Vereen were not getting it done, Gray would have gotten on the field. Otherwise he would have been deactivated.
If Gray ran for 6.2 ypc, he would get all of those carries, Blount would have 0. Even though Blount only had the ball 12 times, he was gouging the vaulted Detroit defense.
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Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I have no clue how much Gray will be used going forward and how much Blount will be used.
What I do know if that for the vast majority of the Lions game neither one was used very much.
Blount got almost all his carries in what was in essence garbage time.
With 6:23 left in the 4th Quarter, Blount had 4 carries for 29 yards.
On the last drive when the Lions looked completely defeated as a team, Blount got 8 carries 49 carries, 33 yards on one play. Also, Blount had 2 nice carries in the game of 33 yards and 23 yards. His other 10 carries went for 22 yards. Let's not overestimate how good a day Blount had.
I would guess Blount has the edge for more carries down the stretch but with BB involved I don't have much confidence in that.
What I do know if that for the vast majority of the Lions game neither one was used very much.
Blount got almost all his carries in what was in essence garbage time.
With 6:23 left in the 4th Quarter, Blount had 4 carries for 29 yards.
On the last drive when the Lions looked completely defeated as a team, Blount got 8 carries 49 carries, 33 yards on one play. Also, Blount had 2 nice carries in the game of 33 yards and 23 yards. His other 10 carries went for 22 yards. Let's not overestimate how good a day Blount had.
I would guess Blount has the edge for more carries down the stretch but with BB involved I don't have much confidence in that.
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Niles Standish
Footballguy
Blount ran for over 160 yards on 20 carries last year against Indy in the playoffs. Belichick knows he has some skills. Face it Gray probably isn't that good. That is the most likely reason he never had an NFL carry before this season. He probably makes a team next year, but I bet he will never start for a team without an injury. Obviously none of us have seen enough go Gray to know, but that's my guess.
Futz
Footballguy
Bill Billicheck was making a point in this game to Gray. We can and will live without you if you don't walk the line. He's the best option on this team to run the ball but you can never tell either through game planning or game flow when the plug is going to be pulled on all NE RBs. They are fine for bye week fillers but you don't want to trust them down the playoff stretch.
Maybe that was true before they signed Blount; I don't know if that is completely accurate anymore.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Papa Georgio
Footballguy
That's pretty much how NE does it though in many games. I owned Ridley for years and some games they would feed him and others it was all about short quick passes and then in the 4th he'd get 15 carries to grind out the clock and put up numbers like Blount did on Sunday.
DropKick
Footballguy
hardcoredx
Footballguy
Gray would be a 3rd stringer had Blount not leave and Ridley not got hurt. Gray is not ever going to be even close to Blount in terms of talent and skill. Blount will probably be good rb2 going forward as I see NE pounding the ball like the 2nd half of last year. Wouldn't shock me if Blount scores again this weekend.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Think BB's really making the point to his team since every word anyone's ever said about Gray is that he's a great kid, works like a dog and has never been in trouble.
Dondante
Footballguy
Pats can run the ball when they want. They have two different types of backs, one who is typical of a passing offense and two that are typical of a power run game. It's anyone's guess why BB does what he does regarding player discipline, but what we know is BB does what he wants and he's never going to let on why or give anyone, certainly not the media, any real info that could be perceived as useful. One might be able to predict which back will be more prevalent based on an outsiders perspective of the matchup, but nobody knows how the Pats truly perceive the matchup.
OU#1
Footballguy
I'm starting to think the shark move is to drop this guy and let somebody else pick him up. They will end up chasing points when this really is a 3 headed RBBC, and Blount may have the gig after last week...
one thing Gray does well is that he runs where the play is designed to go. His running is disciplined. I think he'll get another shot as a complement to the other two guys.
IMO Gray is droppable at this point in redraft if you're making moves for the playoffs.
His upside appears to be a 50/50 split of "power-back" touches with Blount, which on a typical good day would be 8-10. Blount not only appears to be the more talented runner, but also appears to have BB's trust. So Gray's downside would be somewhere between relegated to the bench entirely and maybe 3-4 touches / game to give Blount a breather.
Obviously it would be best to wait a couple games to see exactly how this plays out. But for those up against trade deadlines or otherwise needing to make roster moves I'm just not seeing how Gray is anything more than a desperation play for the ROS.
His upside appears to be a 50/50 split of "power-back" touches with Blount, which on a typical good day would be 8-10. Blount not only appears to be the more talented runner, but also appears to have BB's trust. So Gray's downside would be somewhere between relegated to the bench entirely and maybe 3-4 touches / game to give Blount a breather.
Obviously it would be best to wait a couple games to see exactly how this plays out. But for those up against trade deadlines or otherwise needing to make roster moves I'm just not seeing how Gray is anything more than a desperation play for the ROS.
Blount has played his way off of how many teams now?
If BB didn't believe LB was expendable, he wouldn't have been a Steeler....
I have no idea what this even means. Of course Blount is expendable. That doesn't mean he isn't the Patriots' best power back option ROS.
Is he though? Blount ran behind a better line last year and didn't get a 200 yd game....Seems by letting him walk, that BB thinks he not much more than JAG...
fredsavage
Footballguy
Dropped for Charles Johnson this morning in ppr dynasty and feel great about it. To hell with patriot rbs
Fair points both, and BB could certainly let Blount walk yet again after the end of this season. However, for rest of this season he is stuck with just Blount/Vereen/Gray.
While Blount did not have a 200 yd game last year, he did have 24/166/4 against Colts last year and it did take Gray 37 carries to get 200.
Plus Blount just put up 6.5 ypc against the best rush D in the NFL last week and from the eye test seems to have at least Gray's skills plus an explosiveness that Gray just hasn't shown yet.
I'm not saying Blount is a lock to totally displace Gray from the offense, but IMO that is much more a possibility that vice versa, therefore seriously capping Gray's upside.
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I actually decided it was better to drop him now, before the final week of the regular season. Aside from the fact that I wanted the roster spot for a second D, I figured this way he's more likely to end up on a non-playoff team and not come back and haunt me in the event that he puts up another 38/201/4 line in Week 16.
Right. That is what I'm seeing as well.
Best way to beat the packers? Attack their weakness and keep their strength off the field.
They have a weak run d. Pound away with gray and Blount all day. Ball control. Slow, lumbering drives that take the sails out of the defense. Keep Rodgers cold on the sidelines helplessly watching.
I'd imagine belicheck takes the same approach he took that worked against Indy with a similar team.
Now the question is does he ride Blount or give gray another shot? That I have no idea but in a must win matchup against the best team in my league I'm going for upside.
So I'm benching Vereen and Ryan Mathews and taking a shot on gray in my flex. If I'm wrong it will cost me the playoffs In a season where my team sucks and probably wouldn't make much noise in the playoffs anyway. If I'm right I'll sneak in and then who knows?
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Niles Standish
Footballguy
I know the announcers were in love with that. And it works great when the oline is winning the battles. It's not so great when the oline isn't. Then it helps to be more versatile since you don't have a giant hole every play.
I'm not sure why running to the designed hole is good honestly. I'd think it's more a crutch if you don't have good vision.
Fireballer
Footballguy
Why didnt NE resign Blount last year?
G
General Tso
Guest
I agree with this. Starting Gray tomorrow. I think Belichik goes ball control and rides Gray this week. Just a hunch, but I'm running with it.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Because they didn't think he was worth the money he would cost. When they could grab him cheap they did. They have done that for years.
What does that have to do with Jonas Gray? I understand Blount isn't a star, but the Pats clearly like him. I'm not sure Gray is more than a 3rd or 4th string type guy. Blount is a good 2nd stringer and has proven that for years. We might know more about Gray in a few weeks of course.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
they still had ridley + vereen on rookie deals, had signed gray for peanuts, and were maybe even looking at drafting a back, as ridley + vereen are on their last year.
they were a little tight on cap, and I think they just didn't want to match pitt's 2y/4m deal at that position.
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PatsWillWin
Footballguy
God help me, I'm contemplating Blount this week in a playoff game.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
Rotoworld (some reporter actually) says expect a spilt unless one gets a hot hand and that they do expect to pound the rock tmrw. I'm on my phone and can't post the link.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
it was speculation from mike reiss
edit: mike reiss has been a pats beat guy for quite some time
pretty similar to speculation on this board from the fans.
however, he also speculates that cam fleming will be inactive ---- he would most likely be the 6th lineman, although you might have other guys spot fill.
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
If u put a gun to my head, my choice is Gray.....
H.Wiggen
Footballguy
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This game has shoot-out written all over it. Vegas is usually on the right path and they have the over/under at 58, highest of the week. Only two more games are even above 50.
Both NE and GB are bad against the run but there's no way both teams come out pounding the ball when they have Brady and Rodgers playing at elite levels. I would be shocked if there weren't a minimum of 6 pass TDs in this game. That's not going to leave much over for split carries between power backs. I have Blount and Gray in misc leagues and am not playing either.
Tim Wright is still available in a lot of leagues. Get him in your lineup and forget about Gray/Blount this week.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Vegas sets the line at 58 because they know the public will think exactly like the thinking in this post.
The way I look at it is that gray did the crime and did the time. He missed a day of practice so he didn't get to play In week 12.
He should be back in action for week 13 although splitting reps/series with Blount.
I'll tell you what I'm curious about and I couldn't find this anywhere: who was taking the 1st team reps in practice this week? That's a good indicator for who will see playing time today. My guess is that they split -at team reps which is what les mike Reiss to think they will split carries today in the game.
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