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Anyone going WR/WR in rounds 1&2? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
You could but you need to have a very late 1st round pick. The top WRs are coming off the boards a lot higher than in usual years.
1st you need to have a late pick (10th-12th). I was really on board with this until I started spending a lot of time mocking out the mid-round picks and reviewing already drafted leagues. It's hard to guarantee you're going to get enough substance at RBs at the turns. Upside and safety is important but I feel going WR/WR really hamstrings my later picks and I'm giving up value later on just to fill out a full team. I think RB/WR is a nice mix of upside vs flexibility this year, and you don't have to reach to be filling out your RB stable.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I've made success by going WR-WR in the past, but I won't try it this year. Too many receivers going in the first round.
RamMan
Footballguy
I am. In my auction league I'll be looking to acquire 2 of the top 5 WR's (say Calvin/Green) and then another top 15 WR for my WR #3 (we start 3 WR/TE). I should still be able to snag an RB combo of say Morris/Stacey or Mathews/Ellington - and I'd be very happy with that.
In my snake draft leagues it depends where I draft. If I'm in the first 4 spots I will definitely grab one of the top RB's. If not I will strongly consider going WR/WR or TE/WR (I would prefer getting Calvin and another top 5 WR but would also be fine with Graham/Dez or similar).
I agree that after the top 4 RB's (plus maybe Lacey) the rest look awfully similar to me.
In my snake draft leagues it depends where I draft. If I'm in the first 4 spots I will definitely grab one of the top RB's. If not I will strongly consider going WR/WR or TE/WR (I would prefer getting Calvin and another top 5 WR but would also be fine with Graham/Dez or similar).
I agree that after the top 4 RB's (plus maybe Lacey) the rest look awfully similar to me.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yep, drafted last night and Calvin went 4, Graham 6, Demaryus 8 and by pick 17 Green, Dez, Marshall and Jordy were gone.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
When I was looking at the average PPG of the top 12 WRs in PPR over the past five years in comparison to the top 12 RBs it looks like the tables are turning. The top 12 WR also tend to represent a lot less variance than the top 12 RBs, i.e there's usually much larger disparity between the top half of RB1s vs. the bottom half. Essentially, if I can't get my hands on an elite RB I have no problem going WR-WR back to back. Drafts are a very fluid thing though, so I'm not set on any particular strategy.
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You'd need some luck to wind up with DT/Dez or Calvin/AJ. Calvin is going around 5th, and usually that whole next crop of WR's (DT/Dez/AJ/Julio/Marshall) are gone by the time you come back around. Maybe one of them drops, but probably not AJ. DT and Dez are also both seem to be going late 1st, so again, you'd need things to fall your way. From what I've seen, more realistic combos would look something like...
DT/Marshall
Dez/AJ
Calvin/Jordy
etc.
Agreed on the RB's though. After the first 4 are off the board, I'm not particularly thrilled about any of them, especially in the 1st.
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I think there's a lot of danger in going WR/WR this year. Or really, going anything that doesn't include at least 1 RB.
I think it can work out absolutely fine if things break right for you. Given ADP's at this point, I'd be perfectly comfortable with the results. But I've run a number of mocks this year where the RB run between 2.1 and 3.12 goes absolutely bananas, with all the Jennings, Gerhart, Mathews, Bush, Spiller, Richardson, Sankey types falling off the board by the end of the third.
What's left is AWESOME in terms of WR value, but if you've already got Dez and DT or something, you're pretty much just praying for death at this point, heading into the season hoping things break right for you with like Vereen and Pierre, or Rice and Ben Tate.
I think WR/WR will work really well more drafts than not. But on the ones where it doesn't work, I think you almost have to punt RB completely and hope to trade.
I think it can work out absolutely fine if things break right for you. Given ADP's at this point, I'd be perfectly comfortable with the results. But I've run a number of mocks this year where the RB run between 2.1 and 3.12 goes absolutely bananas, with all the Jennings, Gerhart, Mathews, Bush, Spiller, Richardson, Sankey types falling off the board by the end of the third.
What's left is AWESOME in terms of WR value, but if you've already got Dez and DT or something, you're pretty much just praying for death at this point, heading into the season hoping things break right for you with like Vereen and Pierre, or Rice and Ben Tate.
I think WR/WR will work really well more drafts than not. But on the ones where it doesn't work, I think you almost have to punt RB completely and hope to trade.
hoopvillian
Footballguy
Did my draft yesterday and got Dez/AJ at the 11th pick. Then got Spiller and Gronk at the next turn. Competitive league too. All the good RBs were picked clean by the 3rd round pretty much though, so be careful if trying this strat.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I will if the opportunity presents itself, but I am not picking in the top third of my draft.
This x2. Exactly what I've been experiencing. I was locked and loaded to go WR/WR at the 11 spot in an upcoming draft, but trying to piece together a RB stable is proving very difficult. I'm going RB/WR and then probably WR/WR the next two picks after that. When guys like Fitz, AJ, Roddy, Welker, etc. are lasting until the 3/4 turn, it's a lot better to go RB/WR/WR/WR in the 10-12 spot.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
If you can get two of the top 6 WR, then yes. Otherwise no. Your best chance is at picks #10-12 in a 12 team league.
Top 6 in no particular order are Calvin, D.Thomas, Dez, AJ, Marshall, and Julio.
If you do start WR/WR, then you almost certainly have to go RB/RB in rounds 3/4 or your team will end up very questionable at the position.
Top 6 in no particular order are Calvin, D.Thomas, Dez, AJ, Marshall, and Julio.
If you do start WR/WR, then you almost certainly have to go RB/RB in rounds 3/4 or your team will end up very questionable at the position.
Picking 11 in a .5ppr and was mulling over drafting wr's at 11 and 14. Too much uncertainty at rb at the 3/4 turn. If I knew bush/spiller would be there, i would go for it, but having to take a Jennings/Gerhart as my rb1 scares me. In mocks I like taking a Murray/Marshall combo or a Dez/Bernard combo. There are some good wr's available at the 3/4 turn. If a rb I like falls to the end of the 3rd I can jump on it or just take 2 more wr's.
fanaticskinsfan
Footballguy
I was wondering how your whole draft went. I was doing so mocks with the draft dominator and fantasy pros and when I asked FBG to rate my team they always came out at 75 percent chance of making the playoffs with great management. I am used to 90 percent. I am very concerned about drafting at the 11th spot this year. I have tried to mock wr/wr at 11 & 14 but my teams just look bad. So how did your draft finish out?
renesauz
IBL Representative
Haven't just thought about it- I've tried it a couple of times in MFL-10s
Just took Marshall/A. Brown from the 11 spot.
Took D. Thomas/A. Brown from the 6 spot in another a couple of weeks ago. Then took R. Bush and Ryan Mathews in the third and fourth- pretty happy about that start.
Just took Marshall/A. Brown from the 11 spot.
Took D. Thomas/A. Brown from the 6 spot in another a couple of weeks ago. Then took R. Bush and Ryan Mathews in the third and fourth- pretty happy about that start.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
At the 12 spot, went Dez and Aj green, came back with gerhart and Matthews
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
The drop off at RB is steep, I think it's suicide going WR/WR early, so many great choices at WR throughout the draft.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I'm just going to leave this here as no one gave enough of a crap respond to it initially, but I figure it's relevant to this conversation. I looked at the standard deviation, mean and skewness distribution of the top 12 WRs and RBs on a PPG basis dating back to 2009 (PPR scoring).
2009
WR STD = 1.37 Mean = 17.7 Skewness = .51
RB STD = 3.37 Mean = 17.85 Skewness = .62
2010
WR STD = 1.79 Mean = 17.2 Skewness = .15
RB STD = 2.72 Mean = 18.21 Skewness = 1.04
2011
WR STD = 2.23 Mean = 17.5 Skewness = 1.13
RB STD = 3.49 Mean = 17.97 Skewness = .5
2012
WR STD = 1.77 Mean = 18.2 Skewness = .68
RB STD = 2.37 Mean = 16.91 Skewness = .57
2013
WR STD = 1.76 Mean = 18.9 Skewness = 1.19
RB STD = 3.21 Mean = 18.1 Skewness = .9
So what does this all mean?
The top 12 WRs have become more valuable over time. In the last two years, the average top 12 WRs have outscored the average top 12 RBs on a PPG basis. Unsurprisingly, this is being reflected in current ADP rankings.
The standard deviation totals point towards RBs being a much more volatile group. You can expect them to deviate more often from the mean, making it more likely for their to be disparity within the group i.e RB1 Charles (25.5 PPG) and RB12 Woodhead (14.2 PPG) compared to WR1 D.Thomas (19.9) and WR12 D. Jackson (16.8) from last year.
The skewness value points to the distribution of lower or higher scores (in this case points per game) within the curve. The higher the skewness value, the more lower PPG values there are on the curve. The threshold here is kind of arbitrary though so I'm not so sure how much these values matter.
What does this ultimately mean? In a perfect world where ADP reflected exactly where players would finish at the end of the year, I'd like to grab an elite RB followed by a top 12 WR (this is of course discounting QBs and TEs all together). If that option wasn't available (so I was drafting out of the later spots) I'd go WR/WR. Obviously, ADP is far from perfect so this is where we use our discretion in making our picks
2009
WR STD = 1.37 Mean = 17.7 Skewness = .51
RB STD = 3.37 Mean = 17.85 Skewness = .62
2010
WR STD = 1.79 Mean = 17.2 Skewness = .15
RB STD = 2.72 Mean = 18.21 Skewness = 1.04
2011
WR STD = 2.23 Mean = 17.5 Skewness = 1.13
RB STD = 3.49 Mean = 17.97 Skewness = .5
2012
WR STD = 1.77 Mean = 18.2 Skewness = .68
RB STD = 2.37 Mean = 16.91 Skewness = .57
2013
WR STD = 1.76 Mean = 18.9 Skewness = 1.19
RB STD = 3.21 Mean = 18.1 Skewness = .9
So what does this all mean?
The top 12 WRs have become more valuable over time. In the last two years, the average top 12 WRs have outscored the average top 12 RBs on a PPG basis. Unsurprisingly, this is being reflected in current ADP rankings.
The standard deviation totals point towards RBs being a much more volatile group. You can expect them to deviate more often from the mean, making it more likely for their to be disparity within the group i.e RB1 Charles (25.5 PPG) and RB12 Woodhead (14.2 PPG) compared to WR1 D.Thomas (19.9) and WR12 D. Jackson (16.8) from last year.
The skewness value points to the distribution of lower or higher scores (in this case points per game) within the curve. The higher the skewness value, the more lower PPG values there are on the curve. The threshold here is kind of arbitrary though so I'm not so sure how much these values matter.
What does this ultimately mean? In a perfect world where ADP reflected exactly where players would finish at the end of the year, I'd like to grab an elite RB followed by a top 12 WR (this is of course discounting QBs and TEs all together). If that option wasn't available (so I was drafting out of the later spots) I'd go WR/WR. Obviously, ADP is far from perfect so this is where we use our discretion in making our picks
rocketsauce
Footballguy
95% sure I'm going WR-WR from the 6 spot in my 12 team PPR. Likely Demaryius/Antonio Brown, but best case scenario of Calvin/Julio if everything goes best case scenario.
And probably going WR/StudTE/StudQB in the 3rd. Ellington, Spiller, Martin - they don't do anything for me that the Mathews/Joique/Jennings' of the 4th and 5th don't do for me. I'd rather grab another stud.
Demaryius/Antonio/Garcon/Jennings/Mathews is a start I tend to get a lot in mocks, although Jennings has been tougher and tougher to grab at 4.06.
I just feel like the security of those top flight WRs will give me the comfort to head into the season. With all those receptions floating around, I'm just looking for 10-15 touches a game from whoever I end up with at RB. If I see the right value in 4, I'll still pass on RB. I am in a very active trade league with super deep benches and FAAB for pickups, if that influences things.
And probably going WR/StudTE/StudQB in the 3rd. Ellington, Spiller, Martin - they don't do anything for me that the Mathews/Joique/Jennings' of the 4th and 5th don't do for me. I'd rather grab another stud.
Demaryius/Antonio/Garcon/Jennings/Mathews is a start I tend to get a lot in mocks, although Jennings has been tougher and tougher to grab at 4.06.
I just feel like the security of those top flight WRs will give me the comfort to head into the season. With all those receptions floating around, I'm just looking for 10-15 touches a game from whoever I end up with at RB. If I see the right value in 4, I'll still pass on RB. I am in a very active trade league with super deep benches and FAAB for pickups, if that influences things.
Oh, yeah, ignore any warnings I made above if PPR, of course. There's obviously a lot more built-in flexibility when the Pierres, Sproles, Woodheads, and Vereens (etc.) become reliable starters instead of guys you plug in for a bye week and hope to get ten points somehow.
I'm not really sure where the reception hog RB's are falling in PPR leagues, but I assume they add enough depth to the RB talent pool that it almost doesn't matter.
Do you guys think it matter that my league starts 1rb 1wr 3 flex Rb/wr ii draft 5 and I'm really thinkin if going wr/wr like other posters said once you start that way looking at my mocks by the time I pick again the Rbs are horrible and value is at Wr I usually end up going wr/wr/wr/wr/Rb
hoopvillian
Footballguy
Here you go.
11 Dez Bryant, Dal WR
14 A.J. Green, Cin WR
35 C.J. Spiller, Buf RB
38 Rob Gronkowski, NE TE
59 Joique Bell, Det RB
62 Lamar Miller, Mia RB
83 Fred Jackson, Buf RB
86 Colin Kaepernick, SF QB
107 Tony Romo, Dal QB
110 Brandin Cooks, NO WR
131 Andre Williams, NYG RB
134 Anquan Boldin, SF WR
155 Antonio Gates, SD TE
158 Brian Hartline, Mia WR
179 Steelers D/ST D/ST
182 Doug Baldwin, Sea WR
203 Robbie Gould, Chi K
matuski
Footballguy
hoopvillian
Footballguy
renesauz
IBL Representative
Would you consider the start of D. THomas/A. Brown/R. Bush/R. Mathews/CJ2K a death sentence? (Foles and Witten were round 6 and 7 picks)
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Lord Fantasy
Footballguy
I'm with Chaka. I'm grateful for Upside-Down Drafting for showing me an alternative to the Stud RB Theory. But let's not replace one dogma with another.
If I can gain an advantage by going WR-WR (or taking Graham in the 1st or taking a QB early or going RB-RB) then I will. But I'm not going to stick to any one plan just cuz.
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renesauz
IBL Representative
But there's another way to look at this. I feel like if I go RB in the late1st/early 2nd, I'm passing up WR value then. WR's are deep, so you are ALWAYS going to be passing up on some "WR value" whenever you draft a RB. The key isn't the WR value you pass up, but when/where you can actually get SOME value for your RB pick. In the later draft slots, I don't think there's much there at RB in the opening rounds.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Ive done probably 50 mocks this week and Ive seen a lot of people trying out an upside down strategy. From my observations it looks very viable in the front or back ends of the draft (although I can't personally pass on an elite RB). Ive seen some pretty good teams from the 9-12 go WR, WR, WR.
On the other hand, the people ive seen go upside down from the middle always end up with imo absolutely terrible RB combinations.
On the other hand, the people ive seen go upside down from the middle always end up with imo absolutely terrible RB combinations.
Why do you think the middle ended up worse than the end? I would expect it the other way around. If you go WR-WR in the 9-12 slot, you are probably looking at RB16-18 as a starter.
I would think you can survive in the early middle - like it sounds you did - but mid to late is probably going to be tough,
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rustycolts
Footballguy
The upside down theory this year maybe to go rb early and often seems like a lot are falling if you could get 4 starting RBs with two being studs you could be Golden.Lots of good team starting WRs left in rounds 5 and 6.
Khy
Footballguy
Yeah, this is my thoughts too... I'm not as comfortable going WR/WR picking out of the 1/2 turn as I am say picking out of the 5-8 holes. In my one draft I was able to go Calvin 1.05, Antonio Brown 2.08, Andre Ellington 3.05 and I was pretty happy with those first three picks. Funny enough, I was the only guy to go WR/WR in that draft but the guy out of the 12 hole took the opposite approach and went RB/RB and went Arian Foster, Montee Ball then in the 3rd round took Andre Johnson as his WR1. So just for comparison sakes, and maybe I'm bias cause it's my team but I'd much rather my first 3 rounds look like Calvin, Brown, Ellington than Foster, Ball, Johnson.
Run It Up
Footballguy
Cause from the middle your first RB is gonna be a bottom end RB2 if your lucky but more likely a top end RB3.
Ive been mocking with my brother who is aiming to do an upside down strategy this year. In a 12 team league from the 6 seat he went Calvin Johnson (whether hes there at the 6 is another story,) Dez Bryant at the 2.07 and Antonio Brown at the 3.06. Thats probably best case scenario for the first three picks imo, pretty confident all three of those picks slipped from their apd, but his RBs ended up being Joique Bell, Shane Vereen, MJD, Bernard Pierce, Ridley and Bradshaw.
Its probably the best team drafted upside down ive seen from the middle.
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Dez
Footballguy
The question should be is anyone NOT going WR/WR this year...I am seeing drafts where multiple people are not only going WR/WR (like 4 in one draft) but I have seen 2 teams going WR/WR/WR/WR in the same draft.
Back in 2003 in my first ever high stakes contest I went WR/WR/WR/WR and people were looking at me funny like I was from outer space.
Last year I was in 28 high stakes drafts where not counting my teams (I went WR/WR/WR 6 times out of 28) the other 308 teams went WR/WR/WR a combined total of 0 times.
Those 308 teams in fact only went a combined WR/WR just 11 times total.
Back in 2003 in my first ever high stakes contest I went WR/WR/WR/WR and people were looking at me funny like I was from outer space.
Last year I was in 28 high stakes drafts where not counting my teams (I went WR/WR/WR 6 times out of 28) the other 308 teams went WR/WR/WR a combined total of 0 times.
Those 308 teams in fact only went a combined WR/WR just 11 times total.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
They had a right to. In PPR, the average PPG of a RB1 (in 12 team league) back in 2003 was a whopping 21.1. For WRs, it was 17.7. This in is PPR mind you. I don't think that an upside down draft would pan out nearly as well back then.
People are going WR/WR now for good reason. Increasing PPG averages for WR1s and rule changes have made it that much more appealing.
It depends on how many WR you can start too. A lot of leagues now use up to 4 WR slots with either 3 WR and a flex or 2 wr 2 flex. In that case assuming PPR its pretty much a no brainer to go WR-WR with your first two if you are picking 10-12, and also if your the guy who took Calvin or Demaryius pick 5 or 7 or whatever.
There can be insane runs on WR though. If your picking 7th or 8th or so there's a good chance your looking at Alshon or Antonio Brown 2nd round with top 7 guys off the board (counting Jordy as the 7th).
There can be insane runs on WR though. If your picking 7th or 8th or so there's a good chance your looking at Alshon or Antonio Brown 2nd round with top 7 guys off the board (counting Jordy as the 7th).
Squintz82
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Squintz82
Footballguy
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