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I took Eddie Lacy 1.01 in 0.5 PPR. Anyone else with me? (1 Viewer)

T

traderallenpoe

Footballguy
I'm not looking for draft advice. Just here to see if anyone else is loading the boat on Fat Eddie this season. Have him in my dynasty and both of my re-draft leagues. Did anyone else make a stretch for Lacy at 1.01 - 1.03 and walk away feeling good about it?

For those of you wondering how team came out in 14 team league:

Foles

Lacy

Ellington

Jefferey

T. Smith

Cameron

J.Hill/K.Benjamin flex

 
Ballsy but not stupid. Too often the past gets overdetermined when making a top pick instead of future consideration/possibility. Lacy is set to become an absolute stud RB with the type of frame that can hold up for 16 games. McCoy is legit also of course, but if you really think this is Lacy's year, then it's a great pick.

 
I certainly don't blame you for drafting him if you feel like he'll be a beast this season--but I personally would not recommend it. I play in leagues where owners tend to be moderately active--and I would bet that in a ppr format that lesean, and jamaal would probably be able to be traded for lacy+some extra equity with a high level of confidence. However, if your league doesn't trade much--and lacy is a must own to you--you really have no choice but to draft him there

 
jvdesigns2002 said:
I certainly don't blame you for drafting him if you feel like he'll be a beast this season--but I personally would not recommend it. I play in leagues where owners tend to be moderately active--and I would bet that in a ppr format that lesean, and jamaal would probably be able to be traded for lacy+some extra equity with a high level of confidence. However, if your league doesn't trade much--and lacy is a must own to you--you really have no choice but to draft him there
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Great point... didn't consider that. it was a 50/50 split with my buddy's (no football IQ) work league and he asked for me to draft and co-manage the team, so my knowledge of how active people are was nil.

I just felt like Lacy can be the #1 overall player this year and if I had him in other 2 leagues, might as well load the conviction boat and make a statement. Shady's durability concerns me and I just feel like Packers offense is going to be on another level this year if everyone stays healthy, equating to a potential 20+ TD season for Lacy

 
I'm with you. I also believe Lacy can be #1 RB this year in standard or PPR. I think his TD upside this year is massive. A bit of a reach, but 20+ would not shock me.

 
He went 1.08 in my .5 ppr league. I passed on him at 1.07 for graham. :shrug: i think hes a beast though. Just had my heart set on graham.

 
shadyridr said:
He went 1.08 in my .5 ppr league. I passed on him at 1.07 for graham. :shrug: i think hes a beast though. Just had my heart set on graham.
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if I may budge in here, I have both of those players on a ppr league and am debating which to give a four year contact to and which to give a three year. The contracts would be free for the duration and then to extend them after they expire, I'd have to pay the player the average of the top five at his position.How would you guys give the contracts?

 
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John 14:6 said:
shadyridr said:
He went 1.08 in my .5 ppr league. I passed on him at 1.07 for graham. :shrug: i think hes a beast though. Just had my heart set on graham.
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if I may budge in here, I have both of those players on a ppr league and am debating which to give a four year contact to and which to give a three year. The contracts would be free for the duration and then to extend them after they expire, I'd have to pay the player the average of the top five at his position.How would you guys give the contracts?
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in a full ppr id give to graham. Another rb will always emerge. Another graham wont. Rbs more injury prone too imo. Just my two cents
 
shadyridr said:
John 14:6 said:
shadyridr said:
He went 1.08 in my .5 ppr league. I passed on him at 1.07 for graham. :shrug: i think hes a beast though. Just had my heart set on graham.
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if I may budge in here, I have both of those players on a ppr league and am debating which to give a four year contact to and which to give a three year. The contracts would be free for the duration and then to extend them after they expire, I'd have to pay the player the average of the top five at his position.How would you guys give the contracts?
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in a full ppr id give to graham. Another rb will always emerge. Another graham wont. Rbs more injury prone too imo. Just my two cents
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Thanks shady! The main thing that has me considering going the other way is it should probably be cheaper to extend Graham (average of top five TE salaries) than Lacy (average of top five RB salaries).
 
I personally think Lacy is getting over-drafted this year. It has been making me wonder if I'm missing the boat a bit but I don't think that's the case--I just wouldn't be satisfied with Lacy as a RB1 unless I was getting a high WR, meaning drafting him at the turn of the 1st and 2nd.

 
He's a second-tier RB and shouldn't be drafted ahead of Charles, McCoy, or Peterson. The first two especially if you're getting points for receptions. He "could" be the #1 RB this year; so could Lynch and Forte who are in the same tier as Lacy. AJ Green "could" be the #1 WR this year but that doesn't mean you should draft him ahead of Megatron.

 
But if you like Lacy more than Charles, McCoy, and Peterson, why shouldn't you draft him before them? If you like AJ more than Calvin, why wouldn't you draft AJ before Calvin? Because experts say not to? That's dumb.

 
I have no issues with Lacy at 1.01. The four RB's ahead of him all have their own question marks as well, and Lacy should have an absolute monster year.

 
MrSoup said:
But if you like Lacy more than Charles, McCoy, and Peterson, why shouldn't you draft him before them? If you like AJ more than Calvin, why wouldn't you draft AJ before Calvin? Because experts say not to? That's dumb.
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Absolutely you should go with your projections, intuition, and anything else that wins your league. The OP simply asked if anyone else was with him and I think it was mostly "no"--I'm not sure if anyone is objecting to him drafting Lacy, just not agreeing with it.

 
There's something like 20 guys you can probably get away with drafting at 1.01 without doing any real harm to your chances, as long as you don't care too much about perception. :shrug:

ETA: But for my own sake, I'd have Lacy 3rd among RB's. Which may or may not make him my #3 overall, depending on scoring.

 
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I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.

 
I have 1st pick tonite and was thinking about AP. Also was thinking that might be a stretch. I have Lacy and Charles on my other team and was gonna go Mccoy to hedge.

 
BigA said:
I have 1st pick tonite and was thinking about AP. Also was thinking that might be a stretch. I have Lacy and Charles on my other team and was gonna go Mccoy to hedge.
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This is a great point, and I felt that way with Stafford and Julio both of whom I own in dynasty along with Lacy, but Lacy I actually went on all in because I felt the conviction was there to make the case that if he has the year I'm expecting, I could win all 3 leagues that I own him in.

I also understand the criticism I'm being met with but to me they all had question marks and the conviction told me that just because I had 1.01 made little difference between 1.02, 1.03, 1.04, 1.05, 1.06... I was taking Lacy in the first round because that's who I had as number 1 on MY board. Apparently I am in the minority based on the bull/bear ratio (financial term, look it up:) in this thread.

 
I took him at 1.07 in my local with Charles, Forte, Manning, McCoy, Peterson, Calvin gone in that order. No way i'd have taken him at 1 though, McCoy is my number 1 back this year. Was fine with taking him at 7, Graham and Demaryius were the others in my thinking.

 
MrSoup said:
But if you like Lacy more than Charles, McCoy, and Peterson, why shouldn't you draft him before them? If you like AJ more than Calvin, why wouldn't you draft AJ before Calvin? Because experts say not to? That's dumb.
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MrSoup said:
But if you like Lacy more than Charles, McCoy, and Peterson, why shouldn't you draft him before them? If you like AJ more than Calvin, why wouldn't you draft AJ before Calvin? Because experts say not to? That's dumb.
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Generally speaking--I don't disagree with your sentiments. However, I do think there are many exceptions to this rule. The OP mentioned taking Lacy at 1.1 in a 14 team 0.5ppr league. One thing to consider in a fantasy league (and a especially in a league this size) is the equity involved in each round of a draft relative to draft position. A person with pick 1.1 is granted the most equity in the first round at the cost of having the least equity in the second round. Regardless of what our personal projections happen to be of certain players--there is no denying that the fantasy community as a whole does place more equity (or values) some players more than others. Generally speaking--there are 3 players in a tier of their own in regards to the fantasy community-lesean, jamaal, ap. Just below this "holy grail" tier are a group of 4-5 more players that the fantasy community puts slightly less equity in (forte, calvin, graham, lacy, possibly manning or bryant)..and so on. I think taking Lacy at 1.1 is giving away equity to one's opponents--which is something that should try to be avoided. My point is that--if you really want lacy--and you have the 1.1 pick--try to trade your first two picks to the 1.4 or 1.5 owner for their first 2 picks--so that you aren't giving away any of your first round equity for free. If you are in a league that doesn't trade at all--then you might have to bite the bullet and draft him--but I think that a reasonable attempt be made to maintain or gain as much equity as possible if you are going to "trend" away from what the fantasy community perceives.

 
I have Lacy in one of my leagues. But I don't recommend him at 1.01 simply because when you are picking first, and out of all the guys out there that are projected to be solid, when you pick first you are going off of predicted points, but also reliability. Does that second year guy give you that reliability? The first pick should give you confidence AND peace of mind. Lacy gives me confidence but such a limited track record gives me little peace of mind.

 
sho nuff said:
PPR, no way do I take him before McCoy and Forte...then Charles, then Lacy.
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This. Although it's not really a bad pick at 1.01. It wouldn't shock me to see him as the top fantasy RB and I think he's a lock to be top 8 (barring injury). That's all you can ask for with a first round pick.

 
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
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The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
Click to expand...
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.

2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)

2012: Doug Martin (injured)

2012: Alfred Morris

2012: Trent Richardson

2008: Matt Forte

2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)

2008: Steve Slaton

2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)

2006: Maurice Jones-Drew

2004: Willis McGahee

2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)

2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)

2000: Mike Anderson

1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)

1998: Robert Edwards (injured)

1998: Fred Taylor (injured)

1996: Eddie George

1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)

1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)

So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons, and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.

And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.

So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.

 
CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
Click to expand...
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.

2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)

2012: Doug Martin (injured)

2012: Alfred Morris

2012: Trent Richardson

2008: Matt Forte

2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)

2008: Steve Slaton

2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)

2006: Maurice Jones-Drew

2004: Willis McGahee

2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)

2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)

2000: Mike Anderson

1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)

1998: Robert Edwards (injured)

1998: Fred Taylor (injured)

1996: Eddie George

1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)

1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)

So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons, and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.

And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.

So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.
Click to expand...
Arbitrary cutoffs aside, I was thinking more along the line of guys that ended up being 1st/2nd round picks. Kevin Jones/Julius Jones were the guys that 1st popped into my head and they're absent from your list.

And I don't think injuries should give these guys a pass. One of the risks in taking a young player like that is that you don't really know their ability to carry the load for 16 games consistently yet (IE Fred Taylor). Not to mention that, as a Doug Martin owner, any list where he wasn't considered a bust last year is one I'm not buying.

ETA: 6 of the 8 "great" seasons were 12+ years ago. Not sure why McGahee is included as he sat out his rookie year.

Bottom line is it looks like, in the last 10 years, of all the 2nd year RBs taken in the 1st round of fantasy drafts, only Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson had a finish good enough that they didn't lose significant value year over year against Martin, Richardson, Forte, K. Jones, and J. Jones as busts. Morris falls somewhere in the middle but his season was 'meh' enough that he dropped from a late 1st rounder in 2013 to a 3rd rounder in 2014.

So let's say this. Lacy is a mid-1st rounder right now. Of the last 9 second year RBs drafted in that range only 2 had a season good enough that they were still drafted in the 1st or 2nd round the following year.

ETA2: There may be other guys I'm missing as I haven't gone through year by year to find other second year RBs being drafted in the 1st round beyond the guys you listed and the ones I could name off the top of my head.

 
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CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
Click to expand...
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.

2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)

2012: Doug Martin (injured)

2012: Alfred Morris

2012: Trent Richardson

2008: Matt Forte

2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)

2008: Steve Slaton

2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)

2006: Maurice Jones-Drew

2004: Willis McGahee

2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)

2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)

2000: Mike Anderson

1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)

1998: Robert Edwards (injured)

1998: Fred Taylor (injured)

1996: Eddie George

1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)

1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)

So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons, and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.

And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.

So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.
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Great work. Can you do this with PPR?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
Click to expand...
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.

2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)

2012: Doug Martin (injured)

2012: Alfred Morris

2012: Trent Richardson

2008: Matt Forte

2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)

2008: Steve Slaton

2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)

2006: Maurice Jones-Drew

2004: Willis McGahee

2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)

2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)

2000: Mike Anderson

1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)

1998: Robert Edwards (injured)

1998: Fred Taylor (injured)

1996: Eddie George

1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)

1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)

So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons, and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.

And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.

So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.
Click to expand...
Arbitrary cutoffs aside, I was thinking more along the line of guys that ended up being 1st/2nd round picks. Kevin Jones/Julius Jones were the guys that 1st popped into my head and they're absent from your list.

And I don't think injuries should give these guys a pass. One of the risks in taking a young player like that is that you don't really know their ability to carry the load for 16 games consistently yet (IE Fred Taylor). Not to mention that, as a Doug Martin owner, any list where he wasn't considered a bust last year is one I'm not buying.

ETA: 6 of the 8 "great" seasons were 12+ years ago. Not sure why McGahee is included as he sat out his rookie year.

Bottom line is it looks like, in the last 10 years, of all the 2nd year RBs taken in the 1st round of fantasy drafts, only Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson had a finish good enough that they didn't lose significant value year over year against Martin, Richardson, Forte, K. Jones, and J. Jones as busts. Morris falls somewhere in the middle but his season was 'meh' enough that he dropped from a late 1st rounder in 2013 to a 3rd rounder in 2014.

So let's say this. Lacy is a mid-1st rounder right now. Of the last 9 second year RBs drafted in that range only 2 had a season good enough that they were still drafted in the 1st or 2nd round the following year.

ETA2: There may be other guys I'm missing as I haven't gone through year by year to find other second year RBs being drafted in the 1st round beyond the guys you listed and the ones I could name off the top of my head.
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200 points isn't an arbitrary cutoff. For one thing, it's a round number. For another, it's fewer points than Eddy Lacy, the back we're actually referring to, scored in 2013. The fact that a back who scored 130 points busted isn't very relevant to a prediction for whether a back who scored 208 points will bust.

Are you making the rather strange assertion that second-year running backs are more likely to get injured than first-year or third-year (or later) running backs? Because that's an extraordinary claim and you'll have to come up with some evidence for it.

If you really think it's a good strategy to pass up the possibility of Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, and Marshall Faulk, not to mention Chris Johnson's 2000-yard season, because Robert Edwards blew out his ACL in a flag football game, or Trent Richardson got traded and sucked, go ahead, take Fred Jackson instead. (Or does the fact that Trent Richardson is now in his third year suggest he'll be great again?)

The bust rate for first-round picks is about 50%, which looks exactly like this distribution.

 
CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
CalBear said:
FreeBaGeL said:
KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.

Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
Click to expand...
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.

It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Click to expand...
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.

2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)

2012: Doug Martin (injured)

2012: Alfred Morris

2012: Trent Richardson

2008: Matt Forte

2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)

2008: Steve Slaton

2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)

2006: Maurice Jones-Drew

2004: Willis McGahee

2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)

2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)

2000: Mike Anderson

1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)

1998: Robert Edwards (injured)

1998: Fred Taylor (injured)

1996: Eddie George

1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)

1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)

So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons, and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.

And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.

So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.
Click to expand...
Arbitrary cutoffs aside, I was thinking more along the line of guys that ended up being 1st/2nd round picks. Kevin Jones/Julius Jones were the guys that 1st popped into my head and they're absent from your list.

And I don't think injuries should give these guys a pass. One of the risks in taking a young player like that is that you don't really know their ability to carry the load for 16 games consistently yet (IE Fred Taylor). Not to mention that, as a Doug Martin owner, any list where he wasn't considered a bust last year is one I'm not buying.

ETA: 6 of the 8 "great" seasons were 12+ years ago. Not sure why McGahee is included as he sat out his rookie year.

Bottom line is it looks like, in the last 10 years, of all the 2nd year RBs taken in the 1st round of fantasy drafts, only Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson had a finish good enough that they didn't lose significant value year over year against Martin, Richardson, Forte, K. Jones, and J. Jones as busts. Morris falls somewhere in the middle but his season was 'meh' enough that he dropped from a late 1st rounder in 2013 to a 3rd rounder in 2014.

So let's say this. Lacy is a mid-1st rounder right now. Of the last 9 second year RBs drafted in that range only 2 had a season good enough that they were still drafted in the 1st or 2nd round the following year.

ETA2: There may be other guys I'm missing as I haven't gone through year by year to find other second year RBs being drafted in the 1st round beyond the guys you listed and the ones I could name off the top of my head.
Click to expand...
200 points isn't an arbitrary cutoff. For one thing, it's a round number. For another, it's fewer points than Eddy Lacy, the back we're actually referring to, scored in 2013. The fact that a back who scored 130 points busted isn't very relevant to a prediction for whether a back who scored 208 points will bust.

Are you making the rather strange assertion that second-year running backs are more likely to get injured than first-year or third-year (or later) running backs? Because that's an extraordinary claim and you'll have to come up with some evidence for it.

If you really think it's a good strategy to pass up the possibility of Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin, and Marshall Faulk, not to mention Chris Johnson's 2000-yard season, because Robert Edwards blew out his ACL in a flag football game, or Trent Richardson got traded and sucked, go ahead, take Fred Jackson instead. (Or does the fact that Trent Richardson is now in his third year suggest he'll be great again?)

The bust rate for first-round picks is about 50%, which looks exactly like this distribution.
Click to expand...
You have to follow your instincts as well, no I wouldn't pass up James LT2 or ADP but mine say Lacy is more in the bust crowd than stud. Jmho

 
Congrats, you just let a stud RB fall to a team who will pair him with a stud WR like Julio or AJ. Good luck beating that team.

 
ponchsox said:
Congrats, you just let a stud RB fall to a team who will pair him with a stud WR like Julio or AJ. Good luck beating that team.
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:confused:

Those guys are both first-rounders in a 14 team PPR league. Early second if they plunge. Not sure what RB you're worried is now going to plunge low enough to pair with those guys. Seems like worry over nothing to me.

Besides, he also got himself a stud RB to combine with two great players at 28/29. Not going to do a lot better than that.

As far as I know, there's no strategy that will let you keep all the other teams from drafting good players.

 
I've got Lacy but one of my biggest problems with him is that damn NFCW schedule opener. They start in SEA. I almost feel like benching him but won't of course.

I got him in auction and TBH if I had it to do over again I would have bid higher on McCoy or Forte. I'm extremely optimistic about his chances though. I like his closing schedule NE/ATL/@BUF/@TB vs the others'. - In the closing weeks, AP gets NYJ, CAR, @DET, @MIA. McCoy is vs SEA wk 14, but also has Dal wk 13, and Dal/@Was wks 15-16. Forte goes @DET/DAL/NO/DET. Charles finishes Den/@AZ/Oak/@PIT. - ETA: Charles and McCoy both get the whole NFCW schedule.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
I've got Lacy but one of my biggest problems with him is that damn NFCW schedule. They start in SEA. I almost feel like benching him but won't of course.

I got him in auction and TBH if I had it to do over again I would have bid higher on McCoy or Forte. I'm extremely optimistic about his chances though. I like his closing schedule NE/ATL/@BUF/@TB vs the others'. - In the closing weeks, AP gets NYJ, CAR, @DET, @MIA. McCoy is vs SEA wk 14, but also has Dal wk 13, and Dal/@Was wks 15-16. Forte goes @DET/DAL/NO/DET. Charles finishes Den/@AZ/Oak/@PIT.
Click to expand...
Seattle is the only NFC W team they play.

THey play the NFC S and AFC E along with their own division, the Seahawks, and Philly.

 
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sho nuff said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I've got Lacy but one of my biggest problems with him is that damn NFCW schedule. They start in SEA. I almost feel like benching him but won't of course.

I got him in auction and TBH if I had it to do over again I would have bid higher on McCoy or Forte. I'm extremely optimistic about his chances though. I like his closing schedule NE/ATL/@BUF/@TB vs the others'. - In the closing weeks, AP gets NYJ, CAR, @DET, @MIA. McCoy is vs SEA wk 14, but also has Dal wk 13, and Dal/@Was wks 15-16. Forte goes @DET/DAL/NO/DET. Charles finishes Den/@AZ/Oak/@PIT.
Click to expand...
Seattle is the only NFC W team they play.

THey play the NFC S and AFC E along with their own division, the Seahawks, and Philly.
Click to expand...
You're right, it's McCoy who gets the NFCW schedule. Not Lacy, who just faces Seattle on the road in the opener.

 
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I love Eddie Lacy, I'm just afraid to sink that much into someone who makes a living running into guys that are as big or bigger than him.

 
traderallenpoe said:
I'm not looking for draft advice. Just here to see if anyone else is loading the boat on Fat Eddie this season. Have him in my dynasty and both of my re-draft leagues. Did anyone else make a stretch for Lacy at 1.01 - 1.03 and walk away feeling good about it?

For those of you wondering how team came out in 14 team league:

Foles

Lacy

Ellington

Jefferey

T. Smith

Cameron

J.Hill/K.Benjamin flex
Click to expand...
If Lacy is the RB you like out of that group there is nothing wrong with going with him at 1.01. People tend to look at ADP and will tell you that its outrageous. Its only outrageous to them because they love groupthink. The only reason people feel Forte is the pick at 1.04 for example is because the internet tells them that. They have not come up with that conclusion on their own.

Kudos to you, and good luck.

 
adrenaline said:
I love Eddie Lacy, I'm just afraid to sink that much into someone who makes a living running into guys that are as big or bigger than him.
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As opposed to whom? Every RB is at risk of taking a lot of shots in any game, I on't care how shifty you are. If anything, his size should help him shoulder the load more than most. I know he missed time last year on the head shot but that had less to do with him 'running into guys' and more with Merriweather leading with his helmet.

 
Shark move would have been to take mccoy/charles then trade for lacy and something else after the thursday night seahawks game... imo thats what I'm doing with AP

 
I like Lacy but I dont see the big bump in production some of you guys are predicting in this thread.

GB is a pass first team and I have a feeling the amonut of times GB passes for TDs well inside of the five yardline is going to give some Lacy owners a lot of heartache this season.

Rodgers will get his first and Lacy will get the scrapps( which is prob in the 8 -12 range which isnt bad at all) hats how their O runs. I will crap my pants if Lacy gets 20 TDs this season.

 
Bobby Guano said:
I like Lacy but I dont see the big bump in production some of you guys are predicting in this thread.

GB is a pass first team and I have a feeling the amonut of times GB passes for TDs well inside of the five yardline is going to give some Lacy owners a lot of heartache this season.

Rodgers will get his first and Lacy will get the scrapps( which is prob in the 8 -12 range which isnt bad at all) hats how their O runs. I will crap my pants if Lacy gets 20 TDs this season.
Click to expand...
I really hope he scores 20 now.

 
Bobby Guano said:
I like Lacy but I dont see the big bump in production some of you guys are predicting in this thread.

GB is a pass first team and I have a feeling the amonut of times GB passes for TDs well inside of the five yardline is going to give some Lacy owners a lot of heartache this season.

Rodgers will get his first and Lacy will get the scrapps( which is prob in the 8 -12 range which isnt bad at all) hats how their O runs. I will crap my pants if Lacy gets 20 TDs this season.
Click to expand...
Ironic posting name there.

 
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