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Proven Strategy To Win the $150,000 League Prize? (1 Viewer)

ISUDESTROYERS

Footballguy
Gentleman:

In joining this league for the first time this year, I was trying to get my head around the best strategy or theory on how to win this league and the $150,000 grand prize. If you RELY on last years winner, you will come away with the theory that you MUST HAVE GOOD TIGHT ENDS. After all, TE's are awarded 1.5 points per reception and last year's winner had amazing tight ends in Gronkowski (rd 8), and Alex Hernandez (rd 7) and also got Brady (rd 5). See his team below:



The Team that Won The League last year

1.11 Calvin Johnson

2.2 Roddy White

3.11 Micheal Turner

4.2 Mark Ingram

5.11 Tom Brady

6.02 Marshawn Lynch

7.11 Aaron Hernandez

8.02 Rob Gronkowski

9.11 Michael Bush

10.02 Sidney Rice

11.11 Jermaine Gresham

12.02 Eagles D/ST

13.11 Donald Driver

14.2 Jerome Harrison

15.11 Montario Hardesty

16.2 Jason Hill

17.11 Stephen Gostkowski

18.02 Donovan McNabb

19.11 Terrell Owens

20.02 Eric Decker

Typical Line-Up During His Playoff Run

Here was his typical starting lineup in the playoffs:

QB – Tom Brady

RB – Michael Turner

RB – Marshawn Lynch

WR – Calvin Johnson

WR – Roddy White

TE – Rob Gronkowski

Flex 1 – Michael Bush

Flex 2 – Aaron Herndandez

K – Stephen Gostkowski

D – Seattle
However,

when you analyze last year's draft (where it was a new phenomenon where Tight Ends and QB's went off the charts crazy) and forecasting where players will be going in this year's draft ...YOU CAN REASONABLE PREDICT that you will not be able to get the same quality players LAST YEAR in this year's draft . Specifically, at the same draft value spots the guy did last year. NO WAY...you can draft the exact same players (with that much firepower) in this year's draft. Heck, in my league, Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski and Alex Hernandez all went within the first 2 rounds (Gronkowski and Graham went before Aaron Rodgers in the first round ...if you can believe that).

So my argument is....to win this league....YES YOU CAN GET SWEET TIGHT ENDS LIKE GRONK, GRAHAM AND HERNANDEZ in the first couple of rounds....but not at rounds 7 and 8 like the winner above did last year....not to mention guys like Brady in Round 5.

So my theory is....unless you can find the next Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski or Hernandez (in this years draft) in round 7 and round 8......THE THEORY IS THAT THE $150,000 CAN BE WON IN OTHER WAYS OTHER THAN BY HAVING AMAZING TIGHT ENDS. IN FACT, I THINK ITS ASSASSINE TO ASSUME YOU MUST HAVE SMOKING TIGHT ENDS....BECAUSE YOU CAN'T SIMPLY GET THE SAME PLAYERS ( THE WINNER GOT LAST YEAR )IN THIS YEAR'S DRAFT.

I would understand their logic (about the 1.5 points given to TE's being huge)...but not necessarily A MUST to win the league.

I could be wrong....but to me...you can win this league WITHOUT smoking Tight Ends. I believe you can win the league with decent tight-ends ....but YOUR SMOKING HOT everywhere else with your picks.....WHO HAPPEN TO GO OFF DURING WEEKS 14-16



Thoughts/Opinions?

 
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I think his draft indicates that you can miss on many of your picks and still place well. He was scoring steady top-20 or better points at all his starter slots, which is obviously difficult given that there are 7 RB/WR/TE slots to fill. Anyone who wins will end up having similar scoring depth in their starting lineup through some combination of safe early round picks, good middle round picks, and late round flyer/waiver acquisitions.

 
I think his draft indicates that you can miss on many of your picks and still place well. He was scoring steady top-20 or better points at all his starter slots, which is obviously difficult given that there are 7 RB/WR/TE slots to fill. Anyone who wins will end up having similar scoring depth in their starting lineup through some combination of safe early round picks, good middle round picks, and late round flyer/waiver acquisitions.
I disagree with your statement that you 'can miss on many of your picks'. Again...because this year is SO MUCH DIFFERENT than last year in terms where players are going in THIS YEARS draft. If anything, you have to be ON TARGET much more this year because teams are much more educated on the importance of QB's, TE's and Receivers. Again...last year was the beginning of a new area of the offensive juggernaut (with QB's and TE's) in the NFL. This year....drafters are making adjustments and you simply CANNOT GET the same players he did (which by the way...he did get lucky with the players he got later in the draft like Brady in rd. 5, Gronk and Hernandez in rounds 7 and 8). This year...you won't be able to get the same players late in the draft....while getting the same quality players on top of the draft....ITS IMPOSSIBLE UNLESS YOU FIND THE UNKNOWNS IN THIS YEARS DRAFT WHO HAVE POTENTIAL.

An example team that I think could maybe win it all (with average to below average Tight Ends) is the recent team I drafted below. I've great great starters and depth...but very average TE's (at least going into this year anyway)



Starting Roster

1 QB - Aaron Rodgers

1 RB - Darrin Sproles

1 RB - Benjarvis Green Ellis

1 WR - Greg Jennings

1 WR - Jordy Nelson

1 TE - Ed Dickson

1 Flex - Peyton Hillis

1 Flex - Cedric Benson (or Beanie Wells, Mark Ingram, Lance Moore or Kendal Wright)

1 K - Mike Nugent

1 Def - Chicago Bears

Bench

Jay Cutler

Jake Locker

Cedric Benson

Mark Ingram

Terrell Owens

Lance Moore

Kendall Wright

Kellen Winslow

Kellen Davis

My main point though (with the whole post) is you don't have to have STUD TIGHT ENDS to win the league. Last year...you could get away with getting stud TE's late in the draft.....this year....YOU WILL BE LUCKY to get the same quality TE's ! Are you confident that guys like Jared Cook, Greg Olsen and Jermaine Greshem (which by the way are going in rounds 7-9 on average) are going to be this year's GRAHAM, GRONK OR HERNANDEZ? As you can see.....its VERY HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

The only way you can get stud TE's this year is to draft them early....which means you will SUFFER IN ALL THE OTHER AREAS of your team. In that case....you will have to get lucky (later in the draft) at all the other positions like at QB, RB and WR.



Thoughts/Opinions?

 
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WOW....THERE IS A LOT OF SHY OR SCARED POSTERS HERE CONSIDERING THE POT IS $150K MAN....HAHA !!! FIGURED THERE WOULD BE A LOT MORE PASSION AND INTERESTED IN THIS TOPIC !!

 
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I think what makes the contest cool is that there is no "must follow" rules to winning the league. Really the way to win is simple, draft good players, win your league, and hope that you get lucky in the later weeks. I do think it would be wise to grab at least one tight end you feel very good about producing, it doesn't have to be an "elite" option, but someone you are confident will get you points week to week.

 
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I think what makes the contest cool is that there is no "must follow" rules to winning the league. Really the way to win is simple, draft good players, win your league, and hope that you get lucky in the later weeks. I do think it would be wise to grab at least one tight end you feel very good about producing, it doesn't have to be an "elite" option, but someone you are confident will get you points week to week.
A tight-end that will help produce points through weeks 1-11? Or a TE that will help me during the playoff and championship weeks (from 12-16)? Didn't know what time period you specifically meaning. It will be tough to start a decent Waiver TE like Scott Chandler versus a top back who has a good matchup like Benson, Beanie Wells or a decent scoring WR's like Lance Moore or Kendall Wright (thoughts on that?)P.S. I'm almost pretty sure I can get into the Championship rounds by being the top 2 seeds in our league (barring injury or something unforeseen). But having enough points to win the MAIN PRIZE of $150,000 (with 300-400 of the top winners of all the other leagues....who by the way more than likely have a lot of the same players as you) that is a whole another topic.

 
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I'm AMAZED that there are over 160 views and only 2 people have chimed in. This is a HUGE TOPIC if you are serious about winning the WHOLE ENCHILADA -



Thoughts/Opinions?

 
isu, are you drafting another team? and if so, what time/date? i'll try to make it. i was actually in your last draft. i'm the team that started off with graham, forte, sjax.

 
isu, are you drafting another team? and if so, what time/date? i'll try to make it. i was actually in your last draft. i'm the team that started off with graham, forte, sjax.
You know what....I WOULD LOVE TO....just don't have another $350 for another team. It sure was fun drafting with everyone and talkin a little SMACK - lol...P.S. What is your team name again?
 
start lee evans. that was probably the most fun i had in a money draft with strangers.
SERIOUSLY....If I had another $350...I would be drafting TOMORROW. I'm addicted to the whole experience relating to fantasy football, strategy and drafting with all the other teams !P.S. If you want to sponsor a team together, I'll do the draft and if we can manage the team together. If we win....we will do a 70/30 split in your favor - haha!
 
I doubt there is a proven strategy. You look at last year's winning draft and conclude that stud TEs are a must. I look at that same draft and conclude you have to get value in the mid rounds. If the owner of that team had the mind set of landing two stud TEs he would have pick them much earlier and ended up with someone like Gates, Witten, Finley or VD, and his roster would have looked much different. As would his winnings.

:yes:

 
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Last year the team that won it all drafted Tom Brady plus 6 players that finished in the top 25 in RB/WR/TE scoring as well as M.Bush who put up huge stats after DMac went down and made up for the Ingram miss. The winner only drafted one bust and 8 studs in his first 9 picks which is exceptional when you really think about it.

Player (WR/RB/TE scoring rank)



1.11 Calvin Johnson (WR1, #3 overall)

2.2 Roddy White (WR5, #12 overall)

3.11 Michael Turner (RB8, #25 overall)

4.2 Mark Ingram (bust)

5.11 Tom Brady (QB3)

6.02 Marshawn Lynch (RB6, #18 overall)

7.11 Aaron Hernandez (TE3, #16 overall)

8.02 Rob Gronkowski (TE1, #2 overall)

9.11 Michael Bush (RB12)



But there is no proven strategy here other than to pick the players that score the most points and avoid busts in the first half of the draft. This year there likely won't be a set of stud TEs available in round 7/8 but I'm guessing there probably will be a set of stud RBs or WRs.

 
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I love drafting in a league that people draft qb's or TE's too early.....keep on doing it!!! The truth of the matter is that you need to find value in the later rounds of the draft, no matter what the position is. It just happens that the winner hit the jackpot with 2 TE's that scored 100+ points over their projected total going into last year.

 

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