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What am I missing on Andre Johnson? (1 Viewer)

Clifford

Footballguy
Why is this guy falling like a rock in drafts? He had over 100 catches and 1400 yards last year. As far as I can tell he's healthy...

 
Fitzpatrick, his displeasure with still being in Houston, his age and his lack of TD production.

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.

 
I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.

 
I don't know about any real drafts, but I don't see anything on ffcalc.

where was he getting drafted and where's he at now?

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.
o, you think we should be scooping fitzmagic?

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.
Yeah, I don't get it. I recently got Andre at the 4/5 turn along with Patterson in an experts draft. They were WRs 17 and 18 off the board.
 
adding that he's older and has a stud young second year WR in Hopkins on the field too ...

Houston is a disaster, going to be a long year for them I'm afraid

I'm steering FAR away

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.
o, you think we should be scooping fitzmagic?
Fitz has been remarkably effective as a fantasy QB, sucks in the W-L column in real football but in fantasy he does fine.

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
How is that any different from last year?

As far as I can tell the only real difference between this year and last is his stink about not being happy in Houston, but I highly doubt that translates to him not playing as hard or anything of the sort.

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.
Kubiak comes from the Shanahan system where they feed their primary WR constantly all over the field (except near the end zone for some reason), Rod Smith, Santana Moss, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon were all target monsters in that offense. O'Brien was the OC for one season in NE during Welker's run of 110+ catches in 4 of 5 seasons so I am not absolutely certain what his philosophy really is.

Now in two seasons as HC at Penn State he fed Allen Robinson a ton (77 & 97 receptions) so there is hope for AJ. I just think there is a lot of uncertainty with the Texans in general and that is probably depressing his value a little.

 
BTW I am not seeing a big shift in AJs ADP. On July 30th his FBG average was WR#15 and today it is WR#14.

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
How is that any different from last year?

As far as I can tell the only real difference between this year and last is his stink about not being happy in Houston, but I highly doubt that translates to him not playing as hard or anything of the sort.
really?

better catch up on the offseason news

 
Johnson ranks #2 all-time in receiving yds/gm after Megatron. And Houston's QBs have been far from top shelf. Matt Schaub, David Carr, Sage Rosenfels, Case Keenum, TJ Yates, Tony Banks, Dave Ragone, Jake Delhomme, Matt Leinart, and Rex Grossman. That's who Johnson has had to work with. Now add in Ryan Kirkpatrick. Is he that much worse than the rest of those guys?

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
How is that any different from last year?

As far as I can tell the only real difference between this year and last is his stink about not being happy in Houston, but I highly doubt that translates to him not playing as hard or anything of the sort.
New coaching staff, possibly lesser QB play and what looks like a much better defense which may lead to more games where Hou tries to control the clock and reduce the number of plays in the game. I certainly don't see them adopting a fast tempo offense.

 
Johnson ranks #2 all-time in receiving yds/gm after Megatron. And Houston's QBs have been far from top shelf. Matt Schaub, David Carr, Sage Rosenfels, Case Keenum, TJ Yates, Tony Banks, Dave Ragone, Jake Delhomme, Matt Leinart, and Rex Grossman. That's who Johnson has had to work with. Now add in Ryan Kirkpatrick. Is he that much worse than the rest of those guys?
You should be more concerned about the offense then the QBs. His first three seasons with Dom Capers/Chris Palmer he averaged 4.1, 4.9 & 4.8 receptions/game. With Kubs he averaged 6.4, 6.7, 7.2, 6.3, 6.6, 4.7, 7.0 & 6.8 receptions/game.

I am not sure what to expect from an O'Brien offense and uncertainty in fantasy football depresses value.

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
How is that any different from last year?

As far as I can tell the only real difference between this year and last is his stink about not being happy in Houston, but I highly doubt that translates to him not playing as hard or anything of the sort.
New coaching staff, possibly lesser QB play and what looks like a much better defense which may lead to more games where Hou tries to control the clock and reduce the number of plays in the game. I certainly don't see them adopting a fast tempo offense.
I disagree quite a bit on that

 
Agree in general with what you are saying Anarchy, but Schaub has finished as a top 10 QB by my league's scoring twice in the last five years. He was no slouch. Last two or three years has been a mean decline for whatever reason, and in that three years AJ finished in the top 10 only once. There is a pattern here that I don't think Fitzpatrick will turn around. Not gonna say definitively it won't happen, but I would be worried about having AJ as a WR1 anymore. All in all it's not AJ I'm worried about.

 
I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.
This seems like weak arguments to me when you consider he produced WR1 numbers last year with:

1. His starting QBs were Schaub/Keenum

2. Foster/Tate & running game didn't produce last year

3. See 1 & 2, the team/offense was bad and AJ still produced.

4. Don't have anything on this, but I don't evaluate based on narratives.

I guess if you wanted to use those arguments you would have to say that because of his age/health/new system he will not be able to pull it off again this year.

 
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I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.
This seems like weak arguments to me when you consider he produced WR1 numbers last year with:

1. His starting QBs were Schaub/Keenum

2. Foster/Tate & running game didn't produce last year

3. See 1 & 2, the team/offense was bad and AJ still produced.

4. Don't have anything on this, but I don't evaluate based on narratives.

I guess if you wanted to use those arguments you would have to say that because of his age/health/new system he will not be able to pull it off again this year.
the list was intended to be a generalized summary of why people would avoid him, personally #1 scares me the most and as I stated above IMO Schaub > Fitzpatrick without question pending the rest of their careers. I will concede AJ put up borderline WR1 numbers in a similarly bad situation last year if you look at the season ending numbers, but if you look deeper he had 6 weeks with receiving yards less than 50 and all five of his TD's for the year came in two weeks.

 
Andre has very little trade value in my league as well. I have shopped him around to everybody and the best offer I got was a late second round pick.

 
In my most recent redraft (1 ppr), Andre went WR23. He ranked 10th last year even with all the issues and lack of TDs. Other than the year he was banged up, he also ranked 6th, 7th, 1st, and 1st in PPR leagues since 2008. Makes you wonder how he would have done with one of the HOF QBs from this generation.

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
He put up 1400+ last year with Schaub, Keenum, and Yates. What is worse about his situation this year? Do you think Fitz is a major downgrade from Schaub?

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
He put up 1400+ last year with Schaub, Keenum, and Yates. What is worse about his situation this year? Do you think Fitz is a major downgrade from Schaub?
no kubiak

which has only been mentioned maybe 100x in this thread alone

 
I don't know enough about the new system to trust his targets will be there this year. Not any more complicated than that.

 
btw, while he will undoubtedly get fewer targets, I suppose there's actually the potential for more td -- so maybe that evens things out a bit

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
He put up 1400+ last year with Schaub, Keenum, and Yates. What is worse about his situation this year? Do you think Fitz is a major downgrade from Schaub?
no kubiak

which has only been mentioned maybe 100x in this thread alone
So? I'm sure other coaches will want to feed the ball to this beast of a receiver.

 
I just saw your post in the Andre Johnson thread that got you a time out. You have a lot of emotion invested here, eh weedhopper?

 
Too much going on around Houston to be comfortable with any of their players. Fitzpatrick has shown that he is capable of putting up solid fantasy numbers but he doesn't win real NFL games so his O/U for # of starts is probably 6 which puts likely Case "never-will-be-enough-to-be-a-has-been" Keenum and incredibly raw rookie Tom Savage in line to play a lot this year both of which deflate AJs value.

I think most fantasy players would rather Houston players become someone else's problem. The safest player to draft from Houston is the defense.
How is that any different from last year?

As far as I can tell the only real difference between this year and last is his stink about not being happy in Houston, but I highly doubt that translates to him not playing as hard or anything of the sort.
New coaching staff, possibly lesser QB play and what looks like a much better defense which may lead to more games where Hou tries to control the clock and reduce the number of plays in the game. I certainly don't see them adopting a fast tempo offense.
I disagree quite a bit on that
Because...?

 
I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.
This just loos like a bunch of fluff/noise. Not to call you out specifically, a lot of people feel the same way.

1. Like you said, Shaub was brutal and he put up a monster PPR season. Fitz locks onto guys, he's inconsistent and throws picks but for fantasy he's not a total disaster.

2. Who cares about the RB situation? Would you Drop Jeremy Maclin in your ranks if Shady got hurt? You can argue this both ways too, less RB production=more passing.

3. The team was the worst in the league last year and he put up that year.

4. Who wouldn't be unhappy on a 2-14 team. It's the NFL, he's not just going to stop trying.

People have been inventing reasons to NOT draft Andre for 3 years in a row. The one LEGIT thing is that he's 33 now, and there will be a year when it starts to come to an end. Whether that is this year is anyone's guess though.

 
I just drafted AJ at 7.5 in a minor 10 team league. I feel better about having Hopkins on my keeper team.

 
Also seems like people don't fully grasp just how amazing he has been. Last two years he had 112 catches 1600 yards and 109 catches 1400 yards. I mean its not like he's just been good, he's been top 3 in the NFL level good in terms of receptions and yardage the last few years. This is a historically great player.

 
I avoided him because:

1. QB situation, Fitzpatrick isn't going to scare anybody. IMO he is an upgrade from Schaub 2013, but that's not saying much.

2. RB situation, will Foster keep up his production?

3. 1 & 2 together makes this team as a whole a scary situation.

4. The fact that AJ made such a big stink about wanting to be traded in the offseason. I saw a interview where he said "I don't like where this team is going," or something to that effect.
This just loos like a bunch of fluff/noise. Not to call you out specifically, a lot of people feel the same way.

1. Like you said, Shaub was brutal and he put up a monster PPR season. Fitz locks onto guys, he's inconsistent and throws picks but for fantasy he's not a total disaster.

2. Who cares about the RB situation? Would you Drop Jeremy Maclin in your ranks if Shady got hurt? You can argue this both ways too, less RB production=more passing.

3. The team was the worst in the league last year and he put up that year.

4. Who wouldn't be unhappy on a 2-14 team. It's the NFL, he's not just going to stop trying.

People have been inventing reasons to NOT draft Andre for 3 years in a row. The one LEGIT thing is that he's 33 now, and there will be a year when it starts to come to an end. Whether that is this year is anyone's guess though.
hmm, i'm not sure about 3 years, but i'll take your word for it. and your answer sounds like everyone else who does want to draft him early and i don't disagree. read my response a few posts up though regarding his numbers from last year, they are not fantasy stud worthy on a week to week basis.

i'm not advocating not drafting the guy. The question was why is he falling on the draft boards this year. and falling, if we must define it, is from elite to borderline WR1/WR2 in rounds 4 and 5. I'll gladly take him as my WR2, would avoid as WR1. Maybe this should have been clarified sooner.

it's funny, the one reason you think is legit, that he is 33, is the only thing that doesn't worry me. it's not his skills that are in decline, it's the team. at least that is my take. look at reggie wayne before his injury last year. manning leaves, luck comes in, he keeps on producing 1000 yard seasons past this age. he's 36 this year so he would have been 32/33 when manning left. i believe AJ to be a better athlete than wayne so i would think AJ still has a couple of years left in him.

 
Draft great players and the situation will generally work itself out, especially with a competent play caller. A coach like O'Brien will use his offensive players according to their ability. While O'Brien threw to Gronkowski in New England, at Penn State he hardly threw to his tight end instead opting to pepper WR Allen Robinson with targets. On this team, AJ's the best player; he will get the ball. After all, the Texans decided not to trade him for a reason, and I suspect that means they will continue to use him.

And Fitzpatrick worries me little. While not a great quarterback for a franchise, he's pretty decent for your fantasy receiver. If Stevie Johnson can put up decent numbers, I don't have too much concern about AJ. Fitz lacks the power arm, but at least he has the gun slinger mentality. He will pull the trigger and take chances down field. Fortunately, the interceptions won't go against the receiver.

 
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I got him in the 11th in a 10 team league. Hes my WR4 or 5. Ill take that all day.

 
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problem with him is he bellyached, and that turned alot of FF people off, his numbers have been amazing, and IIRC fitzpatrick has had a tendency to lock onto 1 wr in the past, it should be andre this year

 
With a combination of Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, and TJ Yates at QB and Foster missing half the season, Johnson still put together a 109-1407-5 season last year.

I don't see how the current situation could be a worse situation than last year. Now the Texans have Bill O'Brien as head coach, and Tom Brady seemed to do pretty well with O'Brien as OC.

I have scooped up Johnson in as many leagues as I can, as he has fallen way more than he should have. More for the rest of us, I guess.
Yeah, I don't get it. I recently got Andre at the 4/5 turn along with Patterson in an experts draft. They were WRs 17 and 18 off the board.
that's a nice tandem. Get the stability from one guy and huge upside from the other.
 
I will concede AJ put up borderline WR1 numbers in a similarly bad situation last year if you look at the season ending numbers, but if you look deeper he had 6 weeks with receiving yards less than 50
I assume you're similarly downgrading Calvin Johnson, who failed to reach 50 yards in 5 of his 14 games. And Dez Bryant, who also did it 5 times. And Brandon Marshall, who also did it 5 times. And Alshon Jeffery, who also did it 5 times.

It surprises me that we've been on these boards all these years and people still think that every good player produces top end numbers each and every week. Other than usually a couple of guys each year, pretty much every player puts up a large handful of fantasy duds and gets a large percentage of their points via big games against bad defenses. LaDainian Tomlinson did it. Marshall Faulk did it. Randy Moss did it. Terrell Owens did it. Calvin Johnson does it. Adrian Peterson does it. Everyone does it most years.

 
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The guy has been one of the most consistent WR's in the NFL.. and fantasy.. forget the TD numbers or the quarterback.. He will get targets no matter what and is always a sure bet, barring injury, for at least 85 rec 1,300 rec yards. He has been my keeper for the last 5 years in a 14 team 2 keeper league and has brought me 2 championships in those years. Unfortunately, we changed the way we do our keepers and draft order so I have to let him go this year but when he is available with my first pic (technically the 3rd round), I will be taking him without hesitation.

 

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