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Shark or Stupid? Zero RB Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

just_want_2_win

Footballguy
The new shark move or just reactionary stupidity?

The Zero RB theory is the brainchild of Shawn Siegele, who suggests steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft.

Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply don’t draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/15/waiting-to-pick-running-backs-in-your-fantasy-football-draft-is-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds/

 
The new shark move or just reactionary stupidity?

The Zero RB theory is the brainchild of Shawn Siegele, who suggests steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft.

Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply don’t draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/15/waiting-to-pick-running-backs-in-your-fantasy-football-draft-is-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds/
Waiting until the 5th is a little too much for me, but I didn't win the NFFC last year either so hard for me to argue with Mr. Siegele

 
Is it cool to rename upside down drafting every year and pretend its revolutionary?
My favorite names were "The Julius Jones draft" and "The Deshaun Foster draft" when it was being renamed every year for the main 4th-6th round RB people were targeting as their RB1 when doing it.

 
How is it zero if you draft a rb
Yea I thought the strategy was going to be draft no rbs at all and just stock up wr and QB talent to trade when you know which rbs are good. Which would be a terrible strategy.

 
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I like the strategy. I've been using it in several mocks and have liked the results. It obviously leaves you weak at Rb but not dead in the water. I've been getting guys like Ben Tate, sjax , miller, rice, vereen, Ridley, freeman, Hyde, Ingram. None of them will light the world on fire for you but with an intelligent combo of 5 or 6 of throw guys you can easily field 2 or 3 competent RBS each week.

And you will more than make up for it when you're starting Calvin, Brees, gronk/Julius thomas, harvin/Patterson each week. Every other position for you will be studs.

 
I can't see myself waiting until the 5th round for it... I've done something somewhat similar by going WR/WR/RB/WR/WR as I want to have at least one top notch RB in there

 
I play in a 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE) league, with .5 ppr for RB, 1 for WR and 1.5 for TE, and am going to employ this strategy this year. I have the #1 overall pick, and am leaning towards Calvin or Graham with the first pick then going best WR/TE on the board for picks 2.12 and 3.01, then perhaps drafting my 1 RB with the 5.01 pick after taking another WR/TE at 4.12. To me it has all to do with the volatility of the RB position. Last year in our league, 13 RB's went in the first two rounds, with 6 of those (Martin, Foster, Richardson, MJD, Spiller and Rice) being busts for whatever reasons.

 
With the new PI rules..zigging when everyone is zagging...collecting those WR's when everyone is doing RB RB..could be wise this year.

 
With the new PI rules..zigging when everyone is zagging...collecting those WR's when everyone is doing RB RB..could be wise this year.
The thing is most teams don't do this anymore. You see way more WRs, QBs and even TEs going in the first two rounds now.

 
I guess it's "zero RB" in the same sense as "cover 0." No help over the top/at the top, so to speak. Looks like regular upside down drafting to me.

I think it's a reasonable approach, but like others above have stated, I'd prefer to get at least 1 RB as an anchor in the first or second round. That variation gives you a little more stability and allows you to still consider value picks later in the draft. ADP for all non-RB positions has adjusted up enough in the past few years that you aren't necessarily finding hidden values; this would be a more effective method to hitch yourself to if we were still in a mindset where Jimmy Graham couldn't be better than a 3rd rounder because he's a TE, or if having the 12th pick meant that 10-11 RBs were already gone.

EDIT: Doc Ock beat me to it, and more concisely. Good post.

 
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The new shark move or just reactionary stupidity?

The Zero RB theory is the brainchild of Shawn Siegele, who suggests steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft.

Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply dont draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/15/waiting-to-pick-running-backs-in-your-fantasy-football-draft-is-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds/
Wow! Didn't know this was a 'thing' now. I began implementing this strategy on my own back around 2000-2001. Now it has a name :) . Its worked well for me in a span of 14 years. Of course if more people start doing it, then it will become less effective.

 
He didn't make it up....and it only looks good when it works but you don't hear about all the poor souls who try it and it fails.

 
Any predetermined strategy like this is dumb. I think you always need to look at BPA (except for the ridiculous like taking 2 QBs early). Why let a great RB value slip by just because you are deadset on taking a WR? This is how guys slip in the draft ever year. People get in their head: I'm going RB-WR or I'm going WR-WR. Next thing you know, someone gets Montee Ball in the late 2nd and those same people are wondering, "geez what a great pick, can't believe he fell."

 
Different circumstance but our league went to: 1QB, 5 Flex, K, D.

So you can start up to 5WR, 3WR/2TE, 2RB/2WR/1TE....etc.

It definitely changes the draft strategy and I sure pushes the value of RB down quite a bit.

 
Any predetermined strategy like this is dumb. I think you always need to look at BPA (except for the ridiculous like taking 2 QBs early). Why let a great RB value slip by just because you are deadset on taking a WR? This is how guys slip in the draft ever year. People get in their head: I'm going RB-WR or I'm going WR-WR. Next thing you know, someone gets Montee Ball in the late 2nd and those same people are wondering, "geez what a great pick, can't believe he fell."
It all depends on the roster requirements and scoring of the league. If it isn't mandatory to start 2 RB's every week, then RB value isn't that great, especially in PPR leagues. The value is with those "traditionalist" fantasy players who have the mindset that they are going RB/RB in the first two rounds no matter what, and leave real value on the board. When the point value of a RB like Demarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch is equivalent to a Michael Floyd or Cordarrelle Patterson, why should an owner reach in the 1st or 2nd round for them?

 
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He didn't make it up....and it only looks good when it works but you don't hear about all the poor souls who try it and it fails.
You don't hear about the 11 of the 12 teams who don't win their title either. However, when this strategy works, it works big.

 
The new shark move or just reactionary stupidity?

The Zero RB theory is the brainchild of Shawn Siegele, who suggests steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft.

Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply don’t draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/15/waiting-to-pick-running-backs-in-your-fantasy-football-draft-is-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds/
Zero RB has been gaining a lot of attention, but it sounds like shots are about to be fired:

About halfway through my/our "Zero RB Is Dumb And You Should Feel Dumb" article. Get ready for math, behavioral economics and strong words..
-@Numberfire
I don't think Numberfire's rebuttal has posted yet, so I'll offer my own in the meantime. I read the original article when Sean wrote it. It was very well-written and entertaining, though as has been pointed out, it was hardly his "brainchild" (note: Sean never claimed it was, that came from the author of the Washington Post article who was obviously unaware of previous writing on the strategy by Waldman and many, many others.)

As much as I enjoyed it, here's a brief point-by-point rebuttal:

Claim 1: VBD doesn't work

- This one is pretty laughable. As Siegele admits, it's the dominant strategy used by expert drafters, and has been for over a decade. If it didn't work don't you think... umm... someone would have noticed by now?

Claim 2: Most people generate poor VBD baselines

- This goes hand-in-hand with claim 1, but completely undermines it. The problem isn't that VBD doesn't work, it's that people are doing it wrong. If I did Prancercise for 20 hours a week and then complained that I wasn't getting ripped, you wouldn't say "exercise doesn't work", you'd say "you exercise wrong".

Claim 3: VBD lineups are "overwhelmingly fragile in the face of prediction errors"

- I can complain about projections like the best of them (I don't use them, personally), but all drafting methods are fragile in the face of bad predictions. VBD introduces two possible points of error (in the player projection and in the baseline projection), but it's a necessary evil because without the baseline projection there's no rigorous way to compare positions. Saying you shouldn't project baselines because it introduces more fragility is like saying you shouldn't predict player performance because it introduces more fragility. It's notable that all of the top experts in FantasyPros' expert accuracy rankings use specific projections. It's certainly not the only way to go, but it's clearly got a pretty good track record.

Claim 4: VBD lineups tend to be fairly balanced

This is just a flat-out misunderstanding of VBD. I've had drafts where pure VBD was telling me that I should be drafting an RB in each of the first 8 rounds, and I had to actually overrule that VBD suggestion and go off script. VBD is agnostic to your lineup so far; if VBD drafters tend to have a balanced roster, it's either because that's where the value was, or else it's because they ignored VBD.

Claim 5: It makes sense to ignore RBs because they get hurt at a substantially higher rate than other positions

This data may be 13 years old, but until I see something more recent to the contrary, I'll assume it still holds. Drinen found that the average RB played about 13 games a year, the average WR played about 14 games a year, and the average QB played about 12.5 games a year, (that QB number definitely seems like it's been increased due to rule changes, though I haven't run any numbers on it.) Now, RB has an advantage in that workload tends to be transferred a bit more cleanly in the face of injuries (it's rare to see one WR take a huge majority of another WR's targets when that WR gets injured), so you can't just go and grab backup WRs when a starting WR goes down (although: Harry Douglas). The mechanics are different, but the injury rates are largely the same.

To be fair, again, I think the article was entertaining and well-written, and I think the strategy is totally valid (even if I disagree with his reasons for using it). Last year was clearly a season where "Zero RB" probably would have been the way to go, because there was so much chaos at the top of the RB rankings. Of course, the article was written in November after that was already obvious. Had all the RBs stayed healthy and productive, I wonder if we might have gotten a call-out to the article he'd written earlier about drafting RB-RB-RB, instead. It's a lot easier to identify the proper strategy with the full benefit of hindsight. I'm not picking on Sean or accusing him of some nefarious intent- I think the guy's awesome, I read most everything he writes, and his fantasy football success pretty much speaks for itself. I think he has every reason in the world to be confident. I just think his writing tends to overstate that confidence. It tends to be too black-and-white when the reality of fantasy football is expressed more in shades of gray.

One thing I do think he got exactly right is the perils of going with a balanced lineup in the draft (though, again, this is not a flaw with VBD drafting). People underestimate bust rates and assume the guys they pick in the first 7 rounds are "starters" and the guys after that are "backups", when in reality they should be assuming that half of their picks are going to bust, (meaning you're still drafting "starters" deep into the teens).

 
Any predetermined strategy like this is dumb. I think you always need to look at BPA (except for the ridiculous like taking 2 QBs early). Why let a great RB value slip by just because you are deadset on taking a WR? This is how guys slip in the draft ever year. People get in their head: I'm going RB-WR or I'm going WR-WR. Next thing you know, someone gets Montee Ball in the late 2nd and those same people are wondering, "geez what a great pick, can't believe he fell."
It all depends on the roster requirements and scoring of the league. If it isn't mandatory to start 2 RB's every week, then RB value isn't that great, especially in PPR leagues. The value is with those "traditionalist" fantasy players who have the mindset that they are going RB/RB in the first two rounds no matter what, and leave real value on the board. When the point value of a RB like Demarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch is equivalent to a Michael Floyd or Cordarrelle Patterson, why should an owner reach in the 1st or 2nd round for them?
They shouldn't, that's the whole point of my post. People often draft with a mentality that limits them and prevents them from getting the best values whether that be a RB, WR or even a QB.

 
1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.77 1 231 81412. Martin, Doug TBB RB 4.29 1 286 81523. Foster, Arian HOU RB 5.56 1 234 81894. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 7.32 1 496 82025. Rice, Ray BAL RB 8.72 1 501 82006. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 8.94 1 246 81747. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 9.95 1 186 81828. Richardson, IND RB 10.06 1 244 81939. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 10.32 1 513 822210. Morris, Alfred WAS RB 16.09 1 260 818411. Forte, Matt CHI RB 16.69 1 549 825012. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 22.64 1 477 826513. Jackson, Steven ATL RB 23.39 1 585 826714. Jones-Drew, JAC RB 28.19 1 261 827815. Bush, Reggie DET RB 28.50 1 676 827816. Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 31.37 1 460 825717. Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 36.31 2 712 825518. Wilson, David NYG RB 36.98 1 657 825419. Gore, Frank SFO RB 37.28 1 532 827120. Sproles, Darren NOS RB 38.43 2 281 828221. McFadden, Darren OAK RB 43.14 3 299 826422. Miller, Lamar MIA RB 49.38 1 332 831423. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 53.17 1 604 831624. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 61.57 2 400 824525. Ball, Montee DEN RB 63.55 1 996 828226. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 67.59 1 1080 823027. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 78.77 1 569 799428. Bradshaw, Ahmad IND RB 80.62 7 555 814529. Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 80.65 6 621 812530. Richardson, STL RB 81.36 3 693 812831. Vereen, Shane NEP RB 82.56 5 439 800132. Mendenhall, ARI RB 85.81 3 949 8095This is only 2013 so I don't know how it compares to previous years but there were 5 big busts in the top 8 RB's last year and some good values in the 5th round and later.

Guys like Moreno, Woodhead, Joique Bell, PT, Stacy and Fred Jackson weren't drafted until late so it does appear that if you gamble on the right RB's late (or take a shotgun approach) you can be successful with this strategy.

 
VBD is only a measurement, just like fantasy points. It doesn't tell you who to draft, or when to draft them.

The author either doesn't know what VBD is, or does and is purposely misrepresenting it as a strawman. Not sure which is better.

 
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He didn't make it up....and it only looks good when it works but you don't hear about all the poor souls who try it and it fails.
You don't hear about the 11 of the 12 teams who don't win their title either. However, when this strategy works, it works big.
When is the problem. Have fun being at the bottom of your league 9 out of 10 years with a team that doesn't compete.
A couple of points on Shawn's teams last year in NFFC and his theory:

1) He didn't just get lucky with 1 team. He finished 1st and 2nd in the NFFC Primetime last year. He won like 6 leagues outright. The 9 out of 10 ratio does not apply to him unless it is 9 out of 10 league winners.

2) His team that won it all last year started with Jamaal Charles, so it wasn't a true "Zero RB" theory. After Charles' 5 td game in the playoffs, his team went to the top. I know, I was right there with him with Charles on my team.

3) As others have pointed out, this theory has been around for years. It is just at the forefront now because of his success last year and the NFL's emphasis on the passing game. I started 4 WRs a few years ago in an NFFC Classic (14 teams) league and finished 2nd in the league. The very first year of WCOFF (2001?) we started 3 WRs out of the box.

4) The skill is in identifying the RBs in the middle rounds and team construction. Luck helps, too, with injuries to the starting RBs.

 
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1. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 1.77 1 231 81412. Martin, Doug TBB RB 4.29 1 286 81523. Foster, Arian HOU RB 5.56 1 234 81894. Charles, Jamaal KCC RB 7.32 1 496 82025. Rice, Ray BAL RB 8.72 1 501 82006. Spiller, C.J. BUF RB 8.94 1 246 81747. Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB 9.95 1 186 81828. Richardson, IND RB 10.06 1 244 81939. McCoy, LeSean PHI RB 10.32 1 513 822210. Morris, Alfred WAS RB 16.09 1 260 818411. Forte, Matt CHI RB 16.69 1 825012. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 22.64 1 477 826513. Jackson, Steven ATL RB 23.39 1 585 826714. Jones-Drew, JAC RB 28.19 1 261 827815. Bush, Reggie DET RB 28.50 1 676 827816. Ridley, Stevan NEP RB 31.37 1 460 825717. Murray, DeMarco DAL RB 36.31 2 712 825518. Wilson, David NYG RB 36.98 1 657 825419. Gore, Frank SFO RB 37.28 1 532 827120. Sproles, Darren NOS RB 38.43 2 281 828221. McFadden, Darren OAK RB 43.14 3 299 826422. Miller, Lamar MIA RB 49.38 1 332 831423. Lacy, Eddie GBP RB 53.17 1 604 831624. Mathews, Ryan SDC RB 61.57 2 400 824525. Ball, Montee DEN RB 63.55 1 996 828226. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB 67.59 1 1080 823027. Bell, Le'Veon PIT RB 78.77 1 569 799428. Bradshaw, Ahmad IND RB 80.62 7 555 814529. Ivory, Chris NYJ RB 80.65 6 621 812530. Richardson, STL RB 81.36 3 693 812831. Vereen, Shane NEP RB 82.56 5 439 800132. Mendenhall, ARI RB 85.81 3 949 8095This is only 2013 so I don't know how it compares to previous years but there were 5 big busts in the top 8 RB's last year and some good values in the 5th round and later.Guys like Moreno, Woodhead, Joique Bell, PT, Stacy and Fred Jackson weren't drafted until late so it does appear that if you gamble on the right RB's late (or take a shotgun approach) you can be successful with this strategy.
There are good and bad RBs scattered throughout every draft. It's just very difficult to tell who will bust and who will shine. If you went RB early last year, you may have been really happy with McCoy and Lacy, brutally disappointed with Richardson and Wilson or somewhere in between. Same can be said for waiting. Did you get Moreno, Gio and Joique or did you get Lamar Miller, Daryl Richardson and Chris Ivory?The only right strategy is taking the best players possible. That's not easy to do, but it's true.

 
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I have been doing this for the last 5 years , made the championship 3 of them and won my league 2 of these years . I grab 3 top WR and a QB then my first RB with the 5th pick then a top TE and then another RB and I make sure that the RB i grab are all pass catcher. The league is a passing league now so thats where the points are. This year my RB are Ellington, Pierre Thomas,D Woodhead and Sproles Again not a new concept and if you guess correct on the RB's you can win it all but again there is luck to it.

 
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I have been doing this for the last 5 years , made the championship 3 of them and won my league 2 of these years . I grab 3 top WR and a QB then my first RB with the 5th pick then a top TE and then another RB and I make sure that the RB i grab are all pass catcher. The league is a passing league now so thats where the points are. This year my RB are Ellington, Pierre Thomas,D Woodhead and Sproles Again not a new concept and if you guess correct on the RB's you can win it all but again there is luck to it.
You got Ellington in the 5th?!

 
I liked fantasy a lot more before the nerds started playing.

IBT "OMG you must suck and hate losing then if you are complaining" post

 
just_want_2_win said:
The new shark move or just reactionary stupidity?

The Zero RB theory is the brainchild of Shawn Siegele, who suggests steering clear of running backs until the fifth or sixth round of a draft.

Zero RB is basically what it sounds like. You simply dont draft running backs in the high leverage rounds. Depending on how a draft is progressing, I will draft either one high upside running back in Round 4 or 5, or I will draft none at all. My preferred lineup after five rounds is to own one tight end (Graham/Gronk) and four wide receivers. I then focus on selecting potential breakout players, the receiving back in timeshares, and backups in good offenses.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/15/waiting-to-pick-running-backs-in-your-fantasy-football-draft-is-not-as-crazy-as-it-sounds/
lol Fullback Fro did this in wcoff 8 or 9 years ago.$$$$

 
I have been doing this for the last 5 years , made the championship 3 of them and won my league 2 of these years . I grab 3 top WR and a QB then my first RB with the 5th pick then a top TE and then another RB and I make sure that the RB i grab are all pass catcher. The league is a passing league now so thats where the points are. This year my RB are Ellington, Pierre Thomas,D Woodhead and Sproles Again not a new concept and if you guess correct on the RB's you can win it all but again there is luck to it.
You got Ellington in the 5th?!
Sorry should have mentioned that I decided to grab Elington in the 3rd this year (Have a man crush on him this year so wanted him badly) and push my 2nd RB to the 7th (Thomas) bit the other years I waited until round 4 or 5.

 
Grits_Blitz said:
With the new PI rules..zigging when everyone is zagging...collecting those WR's when everyone is doing RB RB..could be wise this year.
Why do people still think this is the case? I've done 6 drafts so far this year. In all 6 leagues, only 2 times did someone go RB/RB.

In one the guy in the 10th position scored Adrian Peterson/ Eddie Lacy on the turn. (Start 2 qb + dline mandatory IDP rules, Watt went in the 1st).

The other time was a ppr league the guy at 1.4 went Forte then took Martin in the 2nd. His wrs are now Jeffery, DJax and R. Randle (start 3wr).

I would say that actually going RB/RB is pretty rare. (I do admit none of my leagues were non-ppr)

 
IMO all you're doing with updside down/zero RBs is moving risk around. Doubt there's really much long-run difference between any fixed draft strategy.

 
if your in a 2rb 2 wr 2 flex 1 te your team looks pretty solid after 5 rounds

1) Graham

2) Jordy

3) Cruz

4) White

5) Patterson/Wright

6) You can take Tate/Sankey if there, or go Thomas

7) Gore

8)Goodhead

team looks good on paper at least. as long as you get 2 ppr backs that are solid.

 
Be water my friend. I don't like going into drafts with a set plan. But this is certainly another tool to have in your draft repertioire.

Say I am sitting on the hook and I get a chance to land two studs in AJ Green and Brandon Marshall....well that's a pretty good pair right there. Hmmmm Monte Ball and AJ Green or Brandon Marhsall and AJ Green...that's a no brainer for me.

If you are going to go "Stud WR" theory or whatever though, you need to hit on your studs or you'll be mediocre most likely.

 
IMO all you're doing with updside down/zero RBs is moving risk around. Doubt there's really much long-run difference between any fixed draft strategy.
I thought historically it was a bit easier to predict stud wideouts than it was to predict stud RBs? If that's the case, increased accuracy might net you points consistently.

 
Grits_Blitz said:
With the new PI rules..zigging when everyone is zagging...collecting those WR's when everyone is doing RB RB..could be wise this year.
I think the opposite is true. The upside down strategy works best when a small number of elite WRs have greater separation from the rest of the pack. I think WR is really deep at the moment and elite RBs are scarce. Drafters who take one or even two RBs to start their draft still have a shot at getting A couple of WRs with top 10 potential. Patterson, AJ, Welker, Cruz, Hilton, Fitz...all going at round 4 or later.

 
Ilov80s said:
JaxJokers said:
Ilov80s said:
Any predetermined strategy like this is dumb. I think you always need to look at BPA (except for the ridiculous like taking 2 QBs early). Why let a great RB value slip by just because you are deadset on taking a WR? This is how guys slip in the draft ever year. People get in their head: I'm going RB-WR or I'm going WR-WR. Next thing you know, someone gets Montee Ball in the late 2nd and those same people are wondering, "geez what a great pick, can't believe he fell."
It all depends on the roster requirements and scoring of the league. If it isn't mandatory to start 2 RB's every week, then RB value isn't that great, especially in PPR leagues. The value is with those "traditionalist" fantasy players who have the mindset that they are going RB/RB in the first two rounds no matter what, and leave real value on the board. When the point value of a RB like Demarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch is equivalent to a Michael Floyd or Cordarrelle Patterson, why should an owner reach in the 1st or 2nd round for them?
They shouldn't, that's the whole point of my post. People often draft with a mentality that limits them and prevents them from getting the best values whether that be a RB, WR or even a QB.
The value of Murray vs someone like Floyd is not even close. Murray was #4 rb in ppg among PPR rb's last year. 1 pt behind forte and only 1.8 behind McCoy. Floyd wasn't even top 25 among wr in ppg. When is a high end wr3 comparable to a rb1? This "zero rb" thing is starting to get crazy based off 1 year of higher than average rb busts.I feel most are gravitating to wr early because they feel "safer" and more predictable. However, rb's who get majority of team carries and also catch passes will always be the most valuable and consistent because they are rare. Lots of good wr's left in round 4 and 5 when all the rb's are gambles at that point.

 
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I liked fantasy a lot more before the nerds started playing.

IBT "OMG you must suck and hate losing then if you are complaining" post
There was no fantasy before the nerds started playing. Who do you think sat around and thought "man, football is great, but I think I'd like it a lot more if two days later I could meticulously tabulate all of the statistics of a predetermined set of players by hand and compare those directly against the statistics of another predetermined set of players assembled by someone else to determine which of us was better able to predict player performances"?

It's gone mainstream over the last decade, but I distinctly remember a time when there were few things you could say that were considered nerdier than "I play fantasy football". It was just a step above D&D in terms of social acceptability. It was like playing video games after your 18th birthday before the rise of Call of Duty and Halo and video game "Bro Culture".

 
Be water my friend. I don't like going into drafts with a set plan. But this is certainly another tool to have in your draft repertioire.

Say I am sitting on the hook and I get a chance to land two studs in AJ Green and Brandon Marshall....well that's a pretty good pair right there. Hmmmm Monte Ball and AJ Green or Brandon Marhsall and AJ Green...that's a no brainer for me.

If you are going to go "Stud WR" theory or whatever though, you need to hit on your studs or you'll be mediocre most likely.
yes and no.I am a firm believer of going into a draft with a pre determined strategy, but certainly you must acknowledge opportunities to be flexible.

I went into my draft going to go rb0 but leveon bell dropped to 3.08 (after Blount gl decision, before arrest) and I snatched him up.

However part of this was because at 3.08 I saw that many behind me at the end of the round needed a RB more than a WR and my other option of Vincent Jackson fell to me anyway at 4.05.

In a way I still went WR/WR/WR but given what was going on in that draft there was too much value to pass up in bell and I still thought I could get the best available WR on my board in the next round anyway.

 
I liked fantasy a lot more before the nerds started playing.

IBT "OMG you must suck and hate losing then if you are complaining" post
There was no fantasy before the nerds started playing. Who do you think sat around and thought "man, football is great, but I think I'd like it a lot more if two days later I could meticulously tabulate all of the statistics of a predetermined set of players by hand and compare those directly against the statistics of another predetermined set of players assembled by someone else to determine which of us was better able to predict player performances"?

It's gone mainstream over the last decade, but I distinctly remember a time when there were few things you could say that were considered nerdier than "I play fantasy football". It was just a step above D&D in terms of social acceptability. It was like playing video games after your 18th birthday before the rise of Call of Duty and Halo and video game "Bro Culture".
So much signature worthy stuff here.

 
Ilov80s said:
JaxJokers said:
Ilov80s said:
Any predetermined strategy like this is dumb. I think you always need to look at BPA (except for the ridiculous like taking 2 QBs early). Why let a great RB value slip by just because you are deadset on taking a WR? This is how guys slip in the draft ever year. People get in their head: I'm going RB-WR or I'm going WR-WR. Next thing you know, someone gets Montee Ball in the late 2nd and those same people are wondering, "geez what a great pick, can't believe he fell."
It all depends on the roster requirements and scoring of the league. If it isn't mandatory to start 2 RB's every week, then RB value isn't that great, especially in PPR leagues. The value is with those "traditionalist" fantasy players who have the mindset that they are going RB/RB in the first two rounds no matter what, and leave real value on the board. When the point value of a RB like Demarco Murray or Marshawn Lynch is equivalent to a Michael Floyd or Cordarrelle Patterson, why should an owner reach in the 1st or 2nd round for them?
They shouldn't, that's the whole point of my post. People often draft with a mentality that limits them and prevents them from getting the best values whether that be a RB, WR or even a QB.
The value of Murray vs someone like Floyd is not even close. Murray was #4 rb in ppg among PPR rb's last year. 1 pt behind forte and only 1.8 behind McCoy. Floyd wasn't even top 25 among wr in ppg. When is a high end wr3 comparable to a rb1? This "zero rb" thing is starting to get crazy based off 1 year of higher than average rb busts.I feel most are gravitating to wr early because they feel "safer" and more predictable. However, rb's who get majority of team carries and also catch passes will always be the most valuable and consistent because they are rare. Lots of good wr's left in round 4 and 5 when all the rb's are gambles at that point.
I agree with what you wrote, but I am not seeing that surefire value in the second round. This year's second round looks littered with potential busts. So if you can get a guy in the top 6 RBs or so, you do it. But if not, then you are likely in a position to grab 2 elite WRs and pick up the pieces with your RBs in later rounds. But yeah, if you have the #3 overall pick and decide to go for Megatron because you read an article online, then you must not like money.

I find that when I do WR top-heavy drafts, I am loading up on RBs in 4-8 so I am maximizing my chances of getting one of the RBs who upgrade their status during the year.

 
I liked fantasy a lot more before the nerds started playing.

IBT "OMG you must suck and hate losing then if you are complaining" post
There was no fantasy before the nerds started playing. Who do you think sat around and thought "man, football is great, but I think I'd like it a lot more if two days later I could meticulously tabulate all of the statistics of a predetermined set of players by hand and compare those directly against the statistics of another predetermined set of players assembled by someone else to determine which of us was better able to predict player performances"?

It's gone mainstream over the last decade, but I distinctly remember a time when there were few things you could say that were considered nerdier than "I play fantasy football". It was just a step above D&D in terms of social acceptability. It was like playing video games after your 18th birthday before the rise of Call of Duty and Halo and video game "Bro Culture".
:goodposting:

Between videogames and fantasy football my classmates thought I was a nerd in high school, but I was just a trend setter.

 

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