Thanks for the reply Bob. I was talking specifically about Norton's rankings in regards to Hitchens. Hitchens was unranked and then when news about Sean Lee breaks his magically zooms to #6? Does the skill level of the player matter in these/his rankings or just the opportunity? Hitchens' skill level isn't remotely up to par and there are several candidates for the job to boot. My contention was that he just threw Hitchens at #6 and leapfrogged several other players that are more talented and also have decent opportunity either this year or next.
You mentioned Telvin Smith being drafted in the 5th round as a crutch and a possible predictor of future success. Will you acknowledge that Smith was regarded as a 2nd or 3rd round talent and dropped in the draft due to off-field issues? If so, the fact that he was a 5th rounder means little. The kid is vastly talented. In retrospect, Hitchens was drafted in the 4th round and was widely considered a terrible reach by Dallas. Hitchens probably would have been available in the 5th or even 6th round. He was a WLB and the transition to an NFL MLB isn't easy especially when you can't fall back on your athleticism. For predicting future success, I'd rather have 2nd round talent and fall to the 5th round due to non-football related issues compared to being drafted in the 4th but be considered a bad pick and a considerable reach.
Lastly, I understand that in the rankings you guys have to stamp out a number and can't put "maybe 3, maybe 4" etc... However, with that said, these rankings are there to be a guide as to who has the greatest chance at fantasy football success. These rankings are not supposed to take ADP into consideration and your first post is trying to legitimize his ranking as if ADP has an impact in ranking Telvin Smith #8 and Anthony Hitchens #6. If someone sees future NFL success for Telvin Smith (as an example) as the 2nd best LB'er in this class, you guys need to rank him #2, NOT #8 because you are taking ADP into account. FBG has other articles for draft strategy and using pre-season ADP to your advantage. These rankings are not them.
And we are getting off the beaten path a little by focusing on just Telvin Smith and Anthony Hitchens. Can you provide rationale for Larkin ranking Ha-Ha Clinton Dix as the #4 overall IDP? In understand that rankings are subjective, but there are so many odd rankings that can't even be defensible except to say that it's their opinion and an opinion can't be wrong. That may be true, but when an opinion is so far out in left field, by several writers doing the rankings, the opinion that the rankings are garbage, shouldn't come as a big surprise.
Just my opinion.
Thank you, GM.I can't answer for the rationale of other's rankings.
I think Smith also dropped because there aren't a lot of sub-220 lb. LBs in college that were roaring successes in the NFL for precedent. Again, Sapp and Harvin also were flagged for pot at their respective combines, and didn't drop to the fifth, I don't agree that it means little. There are lots of pedigree studies, and the odds are much better from the first (where most of the IDPs ranked above Smith come from) than the fifth, which is hard to overlook. Sure, he could make it, but he will be fighting the odds. Travis Frederick was considered a terrible reach in the first round last year, but now looks like a great young center and key to their revamped OL with Smith and Martin. Who knows where Hitchens would have gone, maybe Telvin Smith would have gone in the sixth or seventh round if JAX hadn't drafted him?
Isaiah Crowell is arguably the most talented RB in the class but I had no desire to add him because imo his undrafted status is a huge red flag.
My intent in noting results from four recent drafts (two with multiple staff members) was not to legitimize the rankings, but to show that your take may not be a consensus view, and more of an outlier, and on that basis, I disagreed with the garbage rankings and questioning subscribing comments. Just because the ADP has similarities to the rankings doesn't mean one is aping or parroting the other. If two different river beads are dry, and heavy rains flow down several different streams and tributaries that feed into the separate rivers lead to torrential flows from both, I don't think of the one as copying the other. They both flow from a prior chain of causes and sequence of events that did result in similar consequences. The same fact (Smith dropping to the fifth) could have spooked the rankers as well as the drafters.
To me, the acts of fantasy drafting and ranking are inextricably linked with pedigree, I don't compartmentalize like you. I used the example of Mettenberg and Martavis Bryant, if they get drafted in the first, that is a very different outlook than getting drafted in the sixth and fourth round, tells a much different story about how their respective teams view them, their opportunity to start, how long their leash might be, and it would be remiss and even derelict (imo) to completely throw out that information and not account for it. It may be a philosophical difference, but at any rate, imo, reasonable people can agree to disagree on our very different approaches (which is why I'm not saying your rankings are garbage or nobody should listen to you, I just see things differently).
BEFORE the draft, not knowing where anybody's ultimate destination would be, obviously, I would not have thought Smith would rank ahead of Mosley, Shazier, Mack, or even Clowney and Barr as LBs, so in that sense, the whole ADP issue seems like a red herring that may have confused the issue.
Again, I can't and won't answer for others. After Mosley and Shazier, there are a wide range of possible projections on players like Mack, Clowney, Barr, Smith, etc., so it isn't surprising to me there would be diversity of opinion, as it reflects that there isn't a lot of consensus on this class. Some may think your take on Smith is way out in left field and garbage, but I wouldn't say that, I respect your right to your opinion.
If you have an issue with specific rankings, there are the consensus rankings (Smith is #6), or you can isolate out any set or sets of rankings according to taste and preference. Not sure if you have ever subscribed, but at the risk of sounding like a FBG advertisement, you get a lot more than just rankings. I try and religiously read in-season IDP columns by Jene, Norton and Aaron, and on offense by Bloom, Waldman and Bob Henry, where I have learned a lot over the years about busts, breakouts, matchups, schemes, injuries, trends, etc.
* Where I would "toss out" pedigree, to use highly unlikely examples, would be if the draft positions of Clowney and Mr. Irrelevant were swapped (with no explanation for the inexplicable reversal). I would bump Clowney up and Mr. Irrelevant down, regardless of pedigree. But it would still probably have SOME kind of impact, and I don't think the example of Smith falls into the range of either of those extremes.
I mentioned it upthread, but I think #6 CONSENSUS is a fair ranking, and does account for the intersection of talent, destination, opportunity and pedigree represented by Smith. When was the last time FBG (or you) ranked a fifth rounder as high? It would seem talent IS being weighted more heavily than pedigree, which is precisely what you are exhorting the rankings to reflect.
On HCD, he was taken within a few spots of Pryor. He might have the best combination of instincts, range, coverage ability, ball skills and tackling of the first round safeties. Burnett will get a lot of tackles in front of him, but he could get a chance to make a lot of tackles in the secondary and plays on the ball with GB, CHI and an improving passing game in MIN within the division. If the Jets have a better defense, Pryor may not be on the field with as many chances to make plays. The Jets have a stronger front seven, and so on. It won't shock me at all if he finishes higher than Pryor. I like Pryor (and Buchanon, too), but think HCD would be a good consolation prize if he was gone.
You have some very strong, emphatic opinions about certain players, which is fine, I just don't share your conviction on some of them. Maybe partly, because I have experienced enough times where I thought players that were going to be great weren't, or vice verce. Perhaps that happens to you sometimes, too?
) and "hopes" to get to 230 lbs. I'm hopeful he will (which is why I took him), but it is a projection that he can gain the weight and maintain the speed. He is fast, but so is KPL at 230 lbs., fastest LB at the combine with a 4.51 40, Smith ran a 4.52 40 (Shazier didn't run, launched the 42" VJ, than a 4.38 at his pro day, at 237 lbs. - much more freakish, explosive and impressive size/speed combo than Smith). Smith was somewhat of a one year wonder, and than there was the not too smart pot bust at the combine, which no doubt contributed to his stock dropping (in fairness, this also happened to prospects like Warren Sapp and Percy Harvin, but they were still drafted in the first and didn't free fall to the fifh round). Though if not for that, I wouldn't have gotten him in the fourth round in the league I got him in.
