Speaking of CJ Spiller, the David Wilson discussion reminds me a lot of the CJ Spiller thread from September (with less support for Wilson - understandable given the lack of track record, but similar nonetheless). Should be interesting to see how this one plays out in the end.
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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
It's been a while since I took the time to watch any of David Wilson, but my take on him coming out of college is that he lacked the vision/instincts/footwork to be on par with Richardson or even Martin. When you watched Doug Martin's highlights at Boise State, he was constantly making subtle moves to avoid tackles and pick up extra yards. My recollection of Wilson is that he was involved in a lot of big collisions, which is a symptom of bad vision and elusiveness. If that continues to be a problem in the NFL then his long term durability might be an issue.
There's plenty to like with him. He's a wet dream for the height/weight/speed crowd. Workout freak. Massively productive in college. High draft pick. Good supporting cast and organization. Clear opportunity with Bradshaw out of the picture.
A few months back I had him as a good buy low target, but then he had a good game or two and his value ballooned overnight. I wouldn't buy him at his current price. There's still upside, but also downside. People have flipped out for guys like Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, Steve Slaton, and Julius Jones in similar situations and been burned big time. There's not a huge margin for error when you pay 2nd-3rd round startup value for someone. I have to be pretty confident in a player to take him that high, and I don't yet have that level of faith in Wilson.
There's plenty to like with him. He's a wet dream for the height/weight/speed crowd. Workout freak. Massively productive in college. High draft pick. Good supporting cast and organization. Clear opportunity with Bradshaw out of the picture.
A few months back I had him as a good buy low target, but then he had a good game or two and his value ballooned overnight. I wouldn't buy him at his current price. There's still upside, but also downside. People have flipped out for guys like Ronnie Brown, Kevin Jones, Steve Slaton, and Julius Jones in similar situations and been burned big time. There's not a huge margin for error when you pay 2nd-3rd round startup value for someone. I have to be pretty confident in a player to take him that high, and I don't yet have that level of faith in Wilson.
I guess we'll see. There are more than a few guys that I am geeked about in this draft class, personally.Hell, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Eddie Lacy outscores Trent Richardson this season. Richardson is a great talent but just in a god-awful situation. I can also see Corradelle Patterson outscoring Julio Jones.Tavon Austin is probably going to be a PPR machine.Besides RG3, Luck, and Richardson I'm not sure why everyone is acting like last year's class was elite. I haven't seen enough out of Blackmon and Floyd to suggest they are any better than Austin or Patterson.
squistion
Footballguy
Exactly the point I was making. Just saying "I like the Team A side" is an opinion in a vacuum and offers me little value on the merits of the trade itself. Casting a vote without explanation doesn't tell me what I really want to know - which is why it was a good or bad deal for either party (which is not always self-evident).I think the value of this thread is the discussions as to why a person prefers one side or the other. Posting "I prefer this side" doesn't contribute much to the discussion. Posting "I prefer this side because" does.I do like to post which side I prefer in trades that are made and when I post a trade I like to see which side other members prefer. I really do not think my opinion is going to change anyone's mind and no one else is going to change mine. If someone questions my thinking then I will gladly reply.It might be nice if you could give an explanation for your reasoning on the trades you comment on (which appears to be on just about every trade in this thread). It would save people the time to question your rationale that you could have given in the first place.
Just my
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Sure, if lacy lands in a great situation he could out score Richardson. I don't even think Patterson out scoring Julio is worth a response. Besides luck, rg3 and Richardson, why is last years class elite? Maybe Martin, a top 5 dynasty rb. Wilson, who's value is through the roof right now. Blackmon, who showed quite a bit over the second half of last season. Floyd, miller, wright
Concept Coop
Footballguy
These are my feelings too. The few that treated Spiller as a top 5 back before he broke out got what they paid for. The people that did the same for Julius Jones really hurt their team. That risk/reward isn't promising to me. If he is the next Spiller, there is potential to cash in right now. But, at this price, it just feels like a Teaser bet to me, to use a gambling term.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Thanks for that.Do you have a link? Not because I don't believe you, but because I'd love to look at the numbers.
I could be completely wrong but I see Cordarelle Patterson as a guy who's going to come in and average 80+ catches a season. The guy is a straight-up baller.Size
Julio Jones: 6 ft 3 / 220 lbs
Cordarelle Patterson: 6 ft 3 / 216 lbs
40 yard dash
Julio Jones: 4.39
Cordarelle Patterson: 4.42
Obviously it depends where the guy lands but it be foolish not to acknowledge this guy's upside.
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
He also played in the ACC.Thanks for that.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This stuff looks awesome, but based on their site, I am assuming it is way out of my price range.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The blurb is from Rotoworld. I don't much about the STATS X-Info site, if that's what you are referring to.This stuff looks awesome, but based on their site, I am assuming it is way out of my price range.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Yes, it looks really awesome and like something I would love to get my hands on. But they are marketing to broadcasters and such.The blurb is from Rotoworld. I don't much about the STATS X-Info site, if that's what you are referring to.This stuff looks awesome, but based on their site, I am assuming it is way out of my price range.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
JulioPre-draft measureables
Ht Wt Arm length Hand size 40-yd dash 10-yd split. 3-cone Vert Broad BP
6 ft 2¾ in 220 lb 33¾ in 9¾ in 4.39 s 6.66 s 38½ in 11 ft 3 in 17 reps
All values from NFL Combine
Patterson
Pre-draft measureables
Ht Wt Arm length Hand size 40-yd dash 10-yd split 3-cone Vert Broad BP
6 ft 1 ¾ in 216 lb 31 ¾ in 9 in 4.42 s 1.55 s 37 in 10 ft 8 in
All results from NFL Combine
Julio is bigger in every measurable category, and performed better in every category.
Patterson is a raw prospect. To expect him to come into the league and average 80 catches or outperform Julio is unrealistic.
Those numbers did not copy and paste clearly
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I'm not saying he will outproduce Julio, but the combine is the combine. It doesn't take a number of things into account. Also Patterson makes people miss more than twice what Julio can do.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Fair enoughExactly the point I was making. Just saying "I like Team A side" is an opinion in a vacuum and offers me little value on the merits of the trade itself. Casting a vote without explanation doesn't tell my what I really want to know - which is why it was a good or bad deal for either party (which is not always self-evident).I think the value of this thread is the discussions as to why a person prefers one side or the other. Posting "I prefer this side" doesn't contribute much to the discussion. Posting "I prefer this side because" does.I do like to post which side I prefer in trades that are made and when I post a trade I like to see which side other members prefer. I really do not think my opinion is going to change anyone's mind and no one else is going to change mine. If someone questions my thinking then I will gladly reply.It might be nice if you could give an explanation for your reasoning on the trades you comment on (which appears to be on just about every trade in this thread). It would save people the time to question your rationale that you could have given in the first place.
Just my
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
You were the one that started referencing combine numbers, skewed ones at that. I must have misinterpreted "Hell, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Eddie Lacy outscores Trent Richardson this season. Richardson is a great talent but just in a god-awful situation. I can also see Corradelle Patterson outscoring Julio Jones."
gianmarco
Footballguy
God I love this post.
Excuse me? Please check the posters name before you accuse
ghostguy123
Footballguy
More than happy to take Gonzo and 2.8 here, whether I needed a TE or not.If Gonzo plays, you might have just paid pennies for a 1st round bye.If he doesn't, is pick 10 to pick 20 really all that big of a dropoff this year?
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Apologies. In my defense, you did just step into the debate there
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Crabtree more than Johnson, and don't think enough of DHB or Pettigrew to sway me one way or the other.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
Prefer Crabtree going forward only because of Johnson's age
Matt's Eagles
Footballguy
Dynasty PPR TE yardage bonus
Team A gets
Arian Foster, Taylor Thompson, Brian Hartline, 2014 3rd rounder
Team B gets
Gronk, Bernard Pierce, 2014 1st and 2nd rounders
Team A gets
Arian Foster, Taylor Thompson, Brian Hartline, 2014 3rd rounder
Team B gets
Gronk, Bernard Pierce, 2014 1st and 2nd rounders
beef
Footballguy
ill take gronk
One More Rep
Footballguy
Gronk/Pierce for me, I think it is a good time to sell Foster.
i love the Gronk plus the 2014 1st... i don't know how much Foster has left in the tank (but Gronk has had three surgeries on his arm in the past 6 months), and depending on the bonus structure, Gronk could me my #1 player in the league
Bamac
Footballguy
One more for Gronk side. Probably prefer him straight up over Foster with .15 per yard receiving for TE -- I assume that's the yardage bonus.
Phenix
Footballguy
Calm down tiger, not everything in dynasty is about age. AJ is till a freak. Person giving AJ and Petti got raped if this is a PPR.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Johnson was finally healthy, but will that last? He doesn't catch TD's. You don't think it's possible that Crabtree outscores him? Pettigrew isn't worth much.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I am fine with dealing Brees but I think you can get more for him. Not big on Decker so I will take Brees side
I could see someone going either way on Andre Johnson/Crabtree depending on win now or compete now with an eye towards the future team building methods.. but I'd rather have Andre than Cratbtree and Pettigrew over DHB pretty easily."Johnson was finally healthy, but will that last?"I say:"Cratbree was finally healthy, but will that last?"IMO, their injury concerns wash each other out, and I think Andre will be more productive over the next 2-3 years. Wouldn't fault someone for taking Cratbree's youth or someone thinking he straight up outscored Andre next year though.
squistion
Footballguy
Pretty much my take on it...this trade is essentially AJ for Crabtree and I would prefer the Crabs side on that (younger and I think he will outscore AJ this year in PPR). Pettigrew is a nice throw-in, but for me wouldn't make or break the deal.
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Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Crabby all day for me
One More Rep
Footballguy
Team a gets Randall Cobb
Team b gets T.Y. Hilton/2013 rookie pick 1.4/ 2014 round 2 pick
Team b gets T.Y. Hilton/2013 rookie pick 1.4/ 2014 round 2 pick
Bandite
Footballguy
Cobb side for me
ghostguy123
Footballguy
12 team PPR dynasty
Stevie Johnson
pick #3
for
Roddy White
Stevie Johnson
pick #3
for
Roddy White
Phenix
Footballguy
In a PPR Andre caught 112 passes and nearly 1600 yards last year, and still has about 3 years left. All this mess about his injury history is a joke, he had a bad hammy the year prior and that was his only really ruined season because of injury, then he bounced back large. He is not done.Crabs is good, I like him, but to assume that its just a "yup Crabby all day" as someone said is a joke. Especially in PPR when Pettigrew normally catches passes. 85 just a year earlier and 71 before that. He is hardly a throw in, maybe I just do not see it the same way as you. Heyward-Bey is a scrub and the throw in.
Andre had a better season at age 31 then Crabby has had through his first 4 years. Production wins not hopes and names, just a saying of mine, even though I still think Crabby is pretty good, you throw in Petti its a landslide who wins this deal for me.
I also do not put as much weight into age, players can always be moved, hence this thread.
Phenix
Footballguy
Future I like the move, this year, I'll take White all day.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't see how it could be considered a joke. AJ will be 32 the next time he plays a snap. I understand you don't put much weight on age, but most do; that's why we play dynasty and not redraft/keeper. 5-7 years of Crab is worth more to me than 1-2 of AJ.
Andre is a better football player, and I don't know that anyone is disputing that. But Crabtree put up top 12 numbers in his 11 games with Kaepernick, with 9 TDs in that span - Andre Johnson's career high.
With this type defense I would venture to say you own AJ in a league or 2. I can't see AJ going before Crabtree in any startup format.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Johnson + 1.03 in a standard PPR formats, but it close. I would consider paying this price if I am contending and want the immediate upgrade. But I think we're looking at a solid player at 1.03.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think the startup value favors Cobb. He's also the most valuable and proven part. I'd take Cobb, and likely considering flipping him. ETA:FWIW, Hilton isn't a guy I am comfortable taking a stand on. I could be late to the party, but I am going to hold off and see what happens next year. He likely won't be on any of my teams. Not that I don't like him, just that I have questions.
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One More Rep
Footballguy
I will take the pick have no interest in Jackson at this point
One More Rep
Footballguy
I will take Stevie/1.3. I prefer youth
squistion
Footballguy
I haven't seen any non-PPR drafts, but (for what it's worth) in all recent PPR startups Crabs has been taken about a round or so before AJ.
squistion
Footballguy
Team B is betting on Jackson landing in a good spot, like Atlanta. One of those trades that after free agency shakes out will look either prescient or foolish. Right now I would prefer to hold the 1.08/3.06.
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