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Why No Love Part II: Greg Jennings...? (1 Viewer)

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
In an effort to find the severely undervalued player, I present to you Greg Jennings.

Let's just get straight to the point. Matt Cassel started 6 games for the Vikings last year during Christian Ponder's crash and burn. In another game against Bears, Cassel came in at halftime led the Vikes to victory.

In those 6.5 games, Greg Jennings produced the following numbers:

41/494/4.

I know it can be easily dismissed when us a FFers prorate numbers. But the 16 game proration with Cassel under center for Jennings would have been 101/1209/10.

I;m not saying he stands a chance at replicating that pace over 16 games. For one, his catch percentage with Cassel was an astounding 71%. So, I could see that decreasing. But he's currently going WR57. And it's not like he's over the hill, he's 31 (come 9/21). You won't build around the guy, but he's but 1 year into a huge FA deal and he performed pretty decently last year once he got adequate QB play.

WR's going ahead of Jennings?

Marcus Wheaton

Jarret Boykin

Cecil Shorts

Jordan Matthews

Tavon Austin

DeAndre Hopkins
Kenny Stills

This is not meant to disparage any of the WR's named above. Some have intriguing upside. But Jennings was not so long ago, an elite WR. Why has no one bought in?

 
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I totally agree with you. I just grabbed him in the 15th round of my 10 team money draft after all those players you mentioned. He's either a major sleeper because of ponder's play last season or we're missing something obvious.

Who was the why no love #1?

 
FWIW, I'm kinda there w/ you. Took him as the 42nd WR off the board in a .5 PPR 12 team redraft. I wasn't exactly eyeing him, tbh, but I felt it was still solid value. I didn't know the exact numbers, but yes, it finally dawned on me as that round started that Jennings had been very solid once Cassel took over. Happy to have him as my WR4, w/ the possibility of becoming more.

 
I totally agree with you. I just grabbed him in the 15th round of my 10 team money draft after all those players you mentioned. He's either a major sleeper because of ponder's play last season or we're missing something obvious.

Who was the why no love #1?
Ryan Mathews

 
Do all of my secrets have to be revealed on this board? Jeesh. Honestly, forums like FBGs actually aid in helping the opponents of us diehard FFers. This forum has a ton of members. Hell, guys at my work are lurkers. I think we collectively need to strategize on a balance of worthwhile topics for discussion. Some code of conduct is needed to preserve the hard work we do, share it but not share ALL of it. I'm not sure what the solution is or if there is a viable one, but part of the reason I lurk more than participate is that I don't want to share knowledge and wisdom I've honed in my 22+ seasons.

Of course Greg Jennings is a tremendous value. I've drafted him in 24+ leagues this season. He has performed as a WR1 in the past and turns 31 this season. It is becoming more normal for good/great WRs to remain consistent well into their mid 30s. Many people don't realize that Jennings has elite measurements in the 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle. He also has a 36.5 vertical and ran a 4.42/40. His NFL game has always been a slick route runner and good (not great) RAC. I'm thinking him in a Norv Turner offense is going to produce numbers closer to his days with Rodgers.

I have 3 entries in the FPC and in all 3, Patterson went in the 4th round and I nabbed Jennings in round 13. I just think he's the most slam dunk value pick of the 2014 season until this thread came along.

Thanks, I'll probably have to reach for him in round 10 now.

 
Took him as my 4th WR in a 14 team PPR with some other FBGs.

11th pick of the 8th round.

Just thought its a nice value for him there to produce pretty well.

 
Do all of my secrets have to be revealed on this board? Jeesh. Honestly, forums like FBGs actually aid in helping the opponents of us diehard FFers. This forum has a ton of members. Hell, guys at my work are lurkers. I think we collectively need to strategize on a balance of worthwhile topics for discussion. Some code of conduct is needed to preserve the hard work we do, share it but not share ALL of it. I'm not sure what the solution is or if there is a viable one, but part of the reason I lurk more than participate is that I don't want to share knowledge and wisdom I've honed in my 22+ seasons.

Of course Greg Jennings is a tremendous value. I've drafted him in 24+ leagues this season. He has performed as a WR1 in the past and turns 31 this season. It is becoming more normal for good/great WRs to remain consistent well into their mid 30s. Many people don't realize that Jennings has elite measurements in the 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle. He also has a 36.5 vertical and ran a 4.42/40. His NFL game has always been a slick route runner and good (not great) RAC. I'm thinking him in a Norv Turner offense is going to produce numbers closer to his days with Rodgers.

I have 3 entries in the FPC and in all 3, Patterson went in the 4th round and I nabbed Jennings in round 13. I just think he's the most slam dunk value pick of the 2014 season until this thread came along.

Thanks, I'll probably have to reach for him in round 10 now.
Don't worry, most of the posters here are paying attention to the 3,421 page thread on Josh Gordon. This will be on Page 3 in no time...

 
I don't want to share knowledge and wisdom I've honed in my 22+ seasons.
So you would like to be the beneficiary of everyone else's combined discussion, until it infringes upon your perceived advantages over your leaguemates. And you don't want to return the favor and contribute.

If everyone operated that way, it wouldn't be much of a community.

 
One thing to keep in mind is its pretty doubtful that Cassel will play more than half a year unless he really lights it up. I bet Teddy is in there around midseason and who knows how the connection goes there.

 
I fully agree TDW I have been talking about Jennings being under valued in the Patterson thread, the Vikings spotlight thread and a few others.

Yet apparently people still sleep on him. :shrug:

 
I don't want to share knowledge and wisdom I've honed in my 22+ seasons.
So you would like to be the beneficiary of everyone else's combined discussion, until it infringes upon your perceived advantages over your leaguemates. And you don't want to return the favor and contribute.

If everyone operated that way, it wouldn't be much of a community.
No, that's not what I meant. I don't mind sharing knowledge and discussing topics. For those of us who are actively participating, it's fun, it's a learning experience for all and it's necessary. But there are maybe, let's be conservative and say there are 500 "regulars" on here. Hell, let's say there are one thousand active posters. I'd shoot the schmidt all day with anyone who is as geeky about this hobby as me. The challenging aspect as a competitor is that here are probably 40,000+ members of this community who are lurking. Users who provide nothing useful and only take what anyone else is offering. Obviously, they miss out on great discussions but as a competitor, that doesn't sit well with me.

I think it's odd you took my comment in such a negative way as if I'm some freeloader who is benefiting from everyone else etc… I'm relatively new to this particular community, but I am not new to FF, nor am I new to a cyber community of fantasy football nerds. Even in my short time here, (mainly active beginning last season), I would like to believe I've offered some value in discussions. While I'm not a double-digit-per-day poster like some I do participate in many different discussions. I just try to avoid getting wrapped up into heated arguments where a winner MUST be awarded before the proof can be be validated.

 
He just went undrafted in my 12 team league with 5 bench spots. I didn't take him due to missing on TE and having to take some late TE flyers, and also drafting Patterson so my chips are in his hands.

 
I love Jennings in best ball leagues (and other draft only formats like Anarchy), because he's a relatively safe bet to at least be a top 50 WR, plus he has decent upside. In leagues where solid WR4 numbers are actually valuable that is very nice to have. Jennings is actually my most drafted player in those formats (tied with the Buffalo defense).

I'm less excited about him in standard leagues. I'd rather buy the upside of someone like Britt.

 
Patterson will be the #1 WR.

This is a run first team.

Hasn't had 1000 yards or 10 TDs since 2010.

I agree he might represent value at his ADP, but I'd rather take a chance on a young, higher upside guy, as my WR 4/5/6. He'll probably have a few 100 yard and/or scoring weeks, but good luck at guessing when those will be.

 
I don't think anyone is expecting 1,000 yards and double digit scores outta Jennings, but his ADP is awfully low for a guy who could easily get 60-800-6.

 
I've got him at roughly WR40, so that's a pretty average WR3 in 12 team league (PPR). He is being drafted as WR57(link), so yeah, I think that's pretty good value. It's not huge though - we are talking about the difference between early 9th and late 12th round - not really a high leverage sleeper.

 
I have Jennings higher than the Golden Boy. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he did better than Patterson.

Comparing a guy we know can get open on almost every route he runs vs. a big tall fast guy, who may have learned how to get open - I take the former.

Unless you play a league where receivers get a very big bonus for long plays, or 150+ yard games, or best ball, I have Jennings higher. He will likely serve as a more reliable week to week producer.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Rhythmdoctor said:
I don't want to share knowledge and wisdom I've honed in my 22+ seasons.
So you would like to be the beneficiary of everyone else's combined discussion, until it infringes upon your perceived advantages over your leaguemates. And you don't want to return the favor and contribute.

If everyone operated that way, it wouldn't be much of a community.
No, that's not what I meant. I don't mind sharing knowledge and discussing topics. For those of us who are actively participating, it's fun, it's a learning experience for all and it's necessary. But there are maybe, let's be conservative and say there are 500 "regulars" on here. Hell, let's say there are one thousand active posters. I'd shoot the schmidt all day with anyone who is as geeky about this hobby as me. The challenging aspect as a competitor is that here are probably 40,000+ members of this community who are lurking. Users who provide nothing useful and only take what anyone else is offering. Obviously, they miss out on great discussions but as a competitor, that doesn't sit well with me.

I think it's odd you took my comment in such a negative way as if I'm some freeloader who is benefiting from everyone else etc… I'm relatively new to this particular community, but I am not new to FF, nor am I new to a cyber community of fantasy football nerds. Even in my short time here, (mainly active beginning last season), I would like to believe I've offered some value in discussions. While I'm not a double-digit-per-day poster like some I do participate in many different discussions. I just try to avoid getting wrapped up into heated arguments where a winner MUST be awarded before the proof can be be validated.
I also read your first post as somewhat arrogant and pompous FWIW. I understand what you are saying, but it is the world wide internet and no one is paying to be on this forum or to keep it exclusive. So expect anything posted to be read by anyone, whether they contribute or not.

I'm ok with topics like this because it enhances peoples knowledge and creates stronger competition in leagues. So if I lose a sleeper player because a league mate happened upon this thread, so be it. I'll have to find a way to be quicker.

ETA - Also wanted to point out that while this OP is insightful, it is in no way a guarantee. Jennings might be very average this year and not as relevant as we think. You may come back here thanking the OP for posting after a league member beats you to Jennings and he flops. It works both ways when the game relies so much on luck.

 
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Jennings is the perfectly boring player who will put up perfectly boring respectable numbers.

I'm hoping he's around when I start shuffling players off my roster with byes.

I see him as a high floor, low ceiling guy. Good supporting cast member.

-QG

 
I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010. The team has Peterson, Patterson and Rudolph. The QB is Cassell. To think that he turns it around at age 31 and has a 1000 yard season with a poor QB, and in a year in which Cordarelle is expected to explode...just doesn't pass the smell test.

Sure, he'll have some good games. But he will be a risky start all year, and has little potential, imo.

 
I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010.
That is a tiny bit of research. Did you happen to pay attention to the games played?

2013 - 39th WR on a PPG basis

2012 - 35th WR on a PPG basis

2011 - 11th WR on a PPG basis

 
LarryAllen said:
Patterson will be the #1 WR.

This is a run first team.

Hasn't had 1000 yards or 10 TDs since 2010.

I agree he might represent value at his ADP, but I'd rather take a chance on a young, higher upside guy, as my WR 4/5/6. He'll probably have a few 100 yard and/or scoring weeks, but good luck at guessing when those will be.
And what else do you want in a WR4/5/6 and where Jennings is being drafted. Good luck determining when all of your "young, higher upside guys" are going to have those big weeks, if they have them at all. That's part of the challenge of a FF season, making lineup decisions and using your bench.

Consistency is not the strength of even some of the best FF WRs. It's an odd way to knock a guy being drafted behind some of the names the OP mentioned.

I like Patterson but think he's slightly overvalued right now. Jennings stands a chance to be as big a beneficiary of Turner and above putrid QB play as Patterson IMO.

 
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I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010. The team has Peterson, Patterson and Rudolph. The QB is Cassell. To think that he turns it around at age 31 and has a 1000 yard season with a poor QB, and in a year in which Cordarelle is expected to explode...just doesn't pass the smell test.

Sure, he'll have some good games. But he will be a risky start all year, and has little potential, imo.
Jennings seemed to do better when it was Cassell last year. Might have just been what I though I had seen...but I almost think someone has posted the numbers he had with him at some point.

I don't think anyone is thinking this guy is WR 2 stud material.

But for where he is being drafted...seems he is in line to be a decent value play over guys people are hoping they can hit a later round home run with (who will likely not do much for them).

I like it for value if you take a riskier guy earlier...take the relatively safer pick like Jennings later as a #4 or #5 WR to fill in for bye weeks.

 
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I am completely on board with this thought. He has been absolutely dismissed in the fantasy world and screams value right now.

 
I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010.
That is a tiny bit of research. Did you happen to pay attention to the games played?

2013 - 39th WR on a PPG basis

2012 - 35th WR on a PPG basis

2011 - 11th WR on a PPG basis
Great. So he's got a bad qb, lots of competition for touches, AND he's injury prone.

 
I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010. The team has Peterson, Patterson and Rudolph. The QB is Cassell. To think that he turns it around at age 31 and has a 1000 yard season with a poor QB, and in a year in which Cordarelle is expected to explode...just doesn't pass the smell test.

Sure, he'll have some good games. But he will be a risky start all year, and has little potential, imo.
Jennings seemed to do better when it was Cassell last year. Might have just been what I though I had seen...but I almost think someone has posted the numbers he had with him at some point.
gotta be around here somewhere

link if you see them

 
I don't buy it. I DID believe in Jennings, then I did a tiny bit of research.

He hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2010.
That is a tiny bit of research. Did you happen to pay attention to the games played?

2013 - 39th WR on a PPG basis

2012 - 35th WR on a PPG basis

2011 - 11th WR on a PPG basis
Great. So he's got a bad qb, lots of competition for touches, AND he's injury prone.
This all applied last year too, and was 39th in PPG. That jives pretty closely with the WR40 that I have him appraised at above, yet he is currently the 57th WR off the board.

There's value here.

 
Visiting the Jags. I can see why he would be interested but why the hell would they? He's not going to help them win playoff games. He would only stunt the growth of the young WRs.

 

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