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The 2014 K (kickers) Thread (1 Viewer)

Mike,

General curiosity Q, just wondering if you have ever looked at it. The last two years the Detroit Lions have spent a 7th round pick on a PK and a fifth round pick on a P (Sam Martin). This strikes more than a few people as an odd allocation of precious draft picks. This year there were exactly 3 placekickers and 3 punters taken.

What percentage of employed kickers (both P and PK) were drafted versus UDFA? I suspect it's heavily in favor of the latter. And even among guys who were drafted, I wonder how often they stick. Seems like your average P/PK moves around with regularity.

 
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

...
Click to expand...
Redskins selected Arkansas K Zach Hocker with the No. 228 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.
Hocker was the Razorbacks' kicker for four seasons, making 61-of-79 field goals in his career. He missed just two extra points. He'll more than likely end up being a camp leg for the Redskins. Kai Forbath would have to faceplant.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I understand this comment about Forbath.

He had a good year last year (IIRC) but the Redskins would not be drafting a kicker unless they saw a benefit.

Also Hocker has a major leg, these guys with the 60 yard ranges, like Zeuerlein, have real potential to change games. Morten Andersen was a real force with NO back in the day in the same way.

Now I would have rather seen the Saints draft Hocker than spend their 7th on an OT with no rep like Rooks like they did, and it seems to me these long-leg kickers have extra value in domes like the Superdome, rather than in stadia like where the Skins play, so not sure where this is going for WAS. I would have been very happy with Hocker in NO though.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Faust said:
Rotoworld:

...
Click to expand...
Redskins selected Arkansas K Zach Hocker with the No. 228 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.
Hocker was the Razorbacks' kicker for four seasons, making 61-of-79 field goals in his career. He missed just two extra points. He'll more than likely end up being a camp leg for the Redskins. Kai Forbath would have to faceplant.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I'm not sure I understand this comment about Forbath.

He had a good year last year (IIRC) but the Redskins would not be drafting a kicker unless they saw a benefit.

Also Hocker has a major leg, these guys with the 60 yard ranges, like Zeuerlein, have real potential to change games. Morten Andersen was a real force with NO back in the day in the same way.

Now I would have rather seen the Saints draft Hocker than spend their 7th on an OT with no rep like Rooks like they did, and it seems to me these long-leg kickers have extra value in domes like the Superdome, rather than in stadia like where the Skins play, so not sure where this is going for WAS. I would have been very happy with Hocker in NO though.
Click to expand...
With the 13th pick of the 7th round, the Redskins drafted Arkansas kicker Zach Hocker. See his profile here.

"Kai Forbath, the incumbent kicker, is among the most accurate field goal kickers in the league. But he has struggled to consistently force touchbacks by putting kickoffs deep into the end zone. Hocker has one of the strongest legs of the kickers the Redskins graded, head coach Jay Gruden said. 'His leg strength is very good,' Gruden said. 'He was a very productive kicker at Arkansas. I think he was ranked ninth or tenth in the nation as far as touchbacks, which is excellent'.... Gruden also said he might consider keeping Forbath as the field goal kicker and Hocker as a kickoff specialist. Hocker is the first kicker the Redskins have drafted since selecting Jeff Hall (Tennessee) in 1999. 'That’s not out of the question,' Gruden said. 'We’ll see in training camp. Kai needs to kickoff better; that’s a fact. He’s obviously a very good field goal kicker, which is important. And we have a lot of respect for his talent as a kicker, but we also felt like we like we needed to bring another kicker in here and compete and look at for the kickoff specialist [role] and compete with Kai'.” - CSN Washington

 
BobbyLayne said:
Mike,

General curiosity Q, just wondering if you have ever looked at it. The last two years the Detroit Lions have spent a 7th round pick on a PK and a fifth round pick on a P (Sam Martin). This strikes more than a few people as an odd allocation of precious draft picks. This year there were exactly 3 placekickers and 3 punters taken.

What percentage of employed kickers (both P and PK) were drafted versus UDFA? I suspect it's heavily in favor of the latter. And even among guys who were drafted, I wonder how often they stick. Seems like your average P/PK moves around with regularity.
Click to expand...
I'd like to see that answer too.

This kicker seems accurate but limited in long range to a couple of 52 yarders. He did do that though outdoors which bodes well.

A 5th & a 7th are not exactly what the Raiders have done in past in the 1st round but yes, still odd compared to the rest of the NFL.

edit: looking at his profile I see he is also a pretty good punter, gives them an automatic backup at that position.

 
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Of last year's starters at kicker, 13 were drafted:

Janikowski

Brown

Scobee

Nugent

Gostkowski

Crosby

Folk

Succop

Henery

Walsh

Zuerlein

Bullock

Sturgis

At punter, 15 were drafted:

Lechler

Zastudil

Sciifres

Lee

D. Colquitt

Koch

Fields

Podlesh

McAfee

Morstead

Huber

Bosher

Nortman

Anger

Martin

In Sam Martin's case, it came down to numbers... specifically: number one. He was the one guy at punter the Lions definitely wanted. So rather than gambling and potentially losing him to some other team as an UDFA, they drafted him.

 
Rotoworld:

Alex Henery is facing competition this offseason for the first time in his career.
The Eagles signed Vanderbilt's Carey Spear aka "Murderleg" as an UDFA. Henery connected on just 82.1 percent of his field goals last season, tied for 22nd int he league. He also struggled to kick the ball out of the end zone on kickoffs.

Related: Carey Spear

Source: Wilmington News Journal
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In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

1.0 Dawson, Phil SFO PK
1.0 Gould, Robbie CHI PK
1.0 Prater, Matt DEN PK
1.0 Bailey, Dan DAL PK
1.0 Scobee, Josh JAC PK
1.0 Folk, Nick NYJ PK
1.0 Gano, Graham CAR PK
1.0 Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK
1.0 Zuerlein, Greg STL PK
1.0 Tucker, Justin BAL PK
1.0 Hauschka, Steven SEA PK
0.95 Nugent, Mike CIN PK
0.95 Cundiff, Billy CLE PK
0.95 Novak, Nick SDC PK
0.95 Vinatieri, Adam IND PK
0.95 Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK
0.95 Suisham, Shaun PIT PK
0.95 Walsh, Blair MIN PK
0.90 Barth, Connor TBB PK
0.90 Bryant, Matt ATL PK
0.90 Brown, Josh NYG PK
0.90 Crosby, Mason GBP PK
0.90 Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK
0.85 Carpenter, Dan BUF PK
0.85 Feely, Jay ARI PK
0.85 Graham, Shayne NOS PK
0.80 Succop, Ryan KCC PK
0.80 Freese, Nate DET PK
0.70 Henery, Alex PHI PK
0.70 Bullock, Randy HOU PK
0.65 Forbath, Kai WAS PK
0.50 Bonani, Maikon TEN PK

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)

 
ZWK, great post! I was looking all over the place for something like this. Am also in a lot of draft only leagues and my priority is always trying to decide who is guaranteed a job vs. trying to predict total points. Regarding Feely, I realize he's not a great kicker, but Arizona just re-signed him to a big contract and haven't brought anyone else in, so was thinking he's pretty much guaranteed to be their guy.

 
Jersey Jammer said:
ZWK, great post! I was looking all over the place for something like this. Am also in a lot of draft only leagues and my priority is always trying to decide who is guaranteed a job vs. trying to predict total points. Regarding Feely, I realize he's not a great kicker, but Arizona just re-signed him to a big contract and haven't brought anyone else in, so was thinking he's pretty much guaranteed to be their guy.
Click to expand...
It looks like Feely is on a one-year deal without any guaranteed money, so Arizona could just cut him. Arizona does have Danny Hrapmann & Chandler Catanzaro listed as other kickers on their roster - I don't know anything about them, but that does look like competition.

 
ZWK said:
In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

...
0.85 Graham, Shayne NOS PK

...

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)
Click to expand...
I think Graham is a pretty good sleeper pick at K this year (along with the Detroit rook). Kind of wondering why you have him ranked so low, is the idea that he could be missing kicks as the year wears on? Because Dimke shouldn't be ready to challenge him.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
ZWK said:
In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

...
0.85 Graham, Shayne NOS PK

...

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)
Click to expand...
I think Graham is a pretty good sleeper pick at K this year (along with the Detroit rook). Kind of wondering why you have him ranked so low, is the idea that he could be missing kicks as the year wears on? Because Dimkus shouldn't be ready to challenge him.
Click to expand...
The kicker who wins the Saints job should be a nice fantasy player to have, but that's not what these ratings are about. I'm just trying to estimate how likely each kicker is to win their team's job. Graham has bounced around the league the past few years, and my sense is that Dimke is there to compete with him for the job (not just to be a camp leg). Graham is obviously the favorite to win that competition, but it does look like a genuine competition.

 
There is guys you have at 100% that I just dont know about. Folk and Gano are 2 guys that are always on the cusp. I know that Crosby last year had to fight off Girgio but he won that and I put his chances at a job as higher than either of those 2 guys. Same goes with Walsh and Sturgis who I would put at 100% as young PK's.

Succop seems to be a little low also but not a 100% guy. I would have him in the 90 club but have his chances of kicking in the future, higher than Bryant(Age), Barth(coming off of injury) or Brown(Was out of NFL for a while till getting back in last year).

NOvak and Cundiff are 2 others that seem too high and Vinatieri is another older than sin guy who is paid too much and losing leg.

 
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ZWK said:
In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

1.0 Dawson, Phil SFO PK

1.0 Gould, Robbie CHI PK

1.0 Prater, Matt DEN PK

1.0 Bailey, Dan DAL PK

1.0 Scobee, Josh JAC PK

1.0 Folk, Nick NYJ PK

1.0 Gano, Graham CAR PK

1.0 Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK

1.0 Zuerlein, Greg STL PK

1.0 Tucker, Justin BAL PK

1.0 Hauschka, Steven SEA PK

0.95 Nugent, Mike CIN PK

0.95 Cundiff, Billy CLE PK

0.95 Novak, Nick SDC PK

0.95 Vinatieri, Adam IND PK

0.95 Sturgis, Caleb MIA PK

0.95 Suisham, Shaun PIT PK

0.95 Walsh, Blair MIN PK

0.90 Barth, Connor TBB PK

0.90 Bryant, Matt ATL PK

0.90 Brown, Josh NYG PK

0.90 Crosby, Mason GBP PK

0.90 Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK

0.85 Carpenter, Dan BUF PK

0.85 Feely, Jay ARI PK

0.85 Graham, Shayne NOS PK

0.80 Succop, Ryan KCC PK

0.80 Freese, Nate DET PK

0.70 Henery, Alex PHI PK

0.70 Bullock, Randy HOU PK

0.65 Forbath, Kai WAS PK

0.50 Bonani, Maikon TEN PK

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)
Click to expand...
I see no reason Carpenter ought to be much below 1.0.

 
Mike, just wanted to say 'thank you' for your work and constant updates. I play in a lot of 'best ball' leagues, so needless to say, picking the correct kickers are very important! Your updates have kept me up to date while my league mates have slept on kickers. Thanks again.

 
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What sleepers are you guys targeting this year? I think Matt Bryant could be a guy flying under the radar that puts up numbers. Had a huge year in 2012 when that Falcons' offense was humming. Last year struggled due to the loss of Julio and injury plagued year for Roddy.

Dome kicker, great offense, terrible D that will need them to score points.

Who else are guys targeting?

 
ZWK said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
ZWK said:
In preparation for a draft-only league, I went through and rated each team's kicker based on their job security. Here's what I have, where the number is intended to be something like the probability that the kicker will have the job all season (barring injury):

...
0.85 Graham, Shayne NOS PK

...

Anyone look out of place in this list? (Especially guys who I have below 0.90 who should be above 0.90, or vice versa.)
Click to expand...
I think Graham is a pretty good sleeper pick at K this year (along with the Detroit rook). Kind of wondering why you have him ranked so low, is the idea that he could be missing kicks as the year wears on? Because Dimkus shouldn't be ready to challenge him.
Click to expand...
The kicker who wins the Saints job should be a nice fantasy player to have, but that's not what these ratings are about. I'm just trying to estimate how likely each kicker is to win their team's job. Graham has bounced around the league the past few years, and my sense is that Dimke is there to compete with him for the job (not just to be a camp leg). Graham is obviously the favorite to win that competition, but it does look like a genuine competition.
Click to expand...
Looks like you were right here, Dimke got his chances last night, started the 1st half too. Graham missed an XP last week too.

 
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JFS171 said:
What sleepers are you guys targeting this year? I think Matt Bryant could be a guy flying under the radar that puts up numbers. Had a huge year in 2012 when that Falcons' offense was humming. Last year struggled due to the loss of Julio and injury plagued year for Roddy.

Dome kicker, great offense, terrible D that will need them to score points.

Who else are guys targeting?
Click to expand...
great offense + bad D = cowboy kicker

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Mike Herman said:
Friday's preseason kicking:

DET - Nate Freese misses XP, makes 55 yarder
Click to expand...
Sounds like the guy who wins this won't just be handed the job. With the offense's perceived ability to get into scoring range Detroit K might not be a bad pick per its ADP.
Click to expand...
I have a feeling that Freese is already up in the competition. He has been taking the FG and XP's at the beginning of games and they put him out there for the infield kick after he had already missed that XP. To me just screams of normal Lions dragging things out.

 
JFS171 said:
What sleepers are you guys targeting this year? I think Matt Bryant could be a guy flying under the radar that puts up numbers. Had a huge year in 2012 when that Falcons' offense was humming. Last year struggled due to the loss of Julio and injury plagued year for Roddy.

Dome kicker, great offense, terrible D that will need them to score points.

Who else are guys targeting?
Click to expand...
I've got Nate Freese down.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
JFS171 said:
What sleepers are you guys targeting this year? I think Matt Bryant could be a guy flying under the radar that puts up numbers. Had a huge year in 2012 when that Falcons' offense was humming. Last year struggled due to the loss of Julio and injury plagued year for Roddy.

Dome kicker, great offense, terrible D that will need them to score points.

Who else are guys targeting?
Click to expand...
I've got Nate Freese down.
Click to expand...
Yes, with an ADP around 16 or so he should still be there late rounds.

 
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