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How valuable are the rookie picks this year? (1 Viewer)

matttyl

matttyl

Footballguy
If you were drafting a brand new dynasty league today, and you could draft rookie picks instead of players, where would you take the #1 rookie pick? #2? So on....

I'm thinking that the #1 pick (which would likely later be used for Watkins) would be around pick #20-25.

#2 (likely Evans, but in a later rookie draft) would go around #35ish

#3 would likely go around #50.

I'd also think #4-#10 would all go in the top 125.

Am I way off? Has anyone been in a draft like this? I'm trying to value these picks against current veteran players (including last year's rookies).

 
What I do is put the rookies in my positional rankings and go by that when I'm drafting. When I'm in doubt about who to pick during the draft I tend go with the rookie pick since after the draft players may go to spots that increase their value. Picks are also more valuable when the rookie draft comes around.

 
I'd use the same method, who would i draft at 1.01 and where would he rank among his position. Watkins is about right, in the 20's, Evans 20's - 40's dependent upon the opinion. After those 2, the opinions are all over the place, with the next guy going in the 40's to 80's, so your guess is as good as any right now. I tend to push the rooks back a bit due to the hype that the draft brings.

1.01 - 20's

1.02 - late 30's (ADP of 20's - 40's)

1.03 - late 60's (ADP of 40's - 80's)

 
cstu said:
What I do is put the rookies in my positional rankings and go by that when I'm drafting. When I'm in doubt about who to pick during the draft I tend go with the rookie pick since after the draft players may go to spots that increase their value. Picks are also more valuable when the rookie draft comes around.
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Same. Leagues differ too much IMO to put all positions together for all leagues.

Off hand, I'd rank them something like: (not all players in the tier will be listed, just to provide examples)

QB: Right now I have Bortles, Bridgewater and Manziel all ranked in the same tier, along with Geno, Flacco, Bradford (Manuel is the tier higher), in the 19-25 range.

RB: Hyde tier 3 (10-17) along with Alfred Morris, Trent, Matthews, Tate... Mason probably should be in the same tier.

WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.

TE: Ebron goes in tier 3 (6-15) with Reed, Eifert, Pitta, Olsen... FWIW, this is one of my largest high ranking tiers. Amaro and ASJ could easily slip into this tier but right now they're grouped with Kelce, Cook, Fauria, in the next tier.

Then you need to rank players and drop the rookies into those slots. Without looking at dynasty startups, I'm guessing for many leagues, the tier 3 WRs probably go somewhere near picks 25-36. That's where I'd put Watkins (and the 1.01). Tier 3 RBs probably go in the 35-50 range along with tier 4 WRs. So the 1.02-1.05 picks should go there as well. I don't think there's much of a drop this year from 1.02 to 1.06.

 
They are a more volatile commodity. If you hit it's great, if you don't it's a total waste.

Not that a 2-3 year veteran can't turn into a total waste (ala Nicks, Richardson, Tampa Mike...............), it's just far less likely.

I personally would not have any rookie this year in the top 25-30. Watkins might be great, but doesnt have the measurables for my liking to make me think he has a better than 50-50 shot at being a WR-1 for fantasy.

 
FUBAR said:
cstu said:
What I do is put the rookies in my positional rankings and go by that when I'm drafting. When I'm in doubt about who to pick during the draft I tend go with the rookie pick since after the draft players may go to spots that increase their value. Picks are also more valuable when the rookie draft comes around.
Click to expand...
Same. Leagues differ too much IMO to put all positions together for all leagues.

Off hand, I'd rank them something like: (not all players in the tier will be listed, just to provide examples)

QB: Right now I have Bortles, Bridgewater and Manziel all ranked in the same tier, along with Geno, Flacco, Bradford (Manuel is the tier higher), in the 19-25 range.

RB: Hyde tier 3 (10-17) along with Alfred Morris, Trent, Matthews, Tate... Mason probably should be in the same tier.

WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.

TE: Ebron goes in tier 3 (6-15) with Reed, Eifert, Pitta, Olsen... FWIW, this is one of my largest high ranking tiers. Amaro and ASJ could easily slip into this tier but right now they're grouped with Kelce, Cook, Fauria, in the next tier.

Then you need to rank players and drop the rookies into those slots. Without looking at dynasty startups, I'm guessing for many leagues, the tier 3 WRs probably go somewhere near picks 25-36. That's where I'd put Watkins (and the 1.01). Tier 3 RBs probably go in the 35-50 range along with tier 4 WRs. So the 1.02-1.05 picks should go there as well. I don't think there's much of a drop this year from 1.02 to 1.06.
Click to expand...
What would lead you believe there is no drop between 1.02 to 1.06? So Evans is equal to the next 5 guys, and who are those 5, because from what I can tell it's all over the place after 1.02 up until the late 1st, so that leads me to believe there is a drop after 1.02, and no clear indication today on another drop until the late 1st.

 
Would anybody go all in on J. Clowney, IF the League includes IDP?

 
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stp-d said:
FUBAR said:
cstu said:
What I do is put the rookies in my positional rankings and go by that when I'm drafting. When I'm in doubt about who to pick during the draft I tend go with the rookie pick since after the draft players may go to spots that increase their value. Picks are also more valuable when the rookie draft comes around.
Click to expand...
Same. Leagues differ too much IMO to put all positions together for all leagues.

Off hand, I'd rank them something like: (not all players in the tier will be listed, just to provide examples)

QB: Right now I have Bortles, Bridgewater and Manziel all ranked in the same tier, along with Geno, Flacco, Bradford (Manuel is the tier higher), in the 19-25 range.

RB: Hyde tier 3 (10-17) along with Alfred Morris, Trent, Matthews, Tate... Mason probably should be in the same tier.

WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.

TE: Ebron goes in tier 3 (6-15) with Reed, Eifert, Pitta, Olsen... FWIW, this is one of my largest high ranking tiers. Amaro and ASJ could easily slip into this tier but right now they're grouped with Kelce, Cook, Fauria, in the next tier.

Then you need to rank players and drop the rookies into those slots. Without looking at dynasty startups, I'm guessing for many leagues, the tier 3 WRs probably go somewhere near picks 25-36. That's where I'd put Watkins (and the 1.01). Tier 3 RBs probably go in the 35-50 range along with tier 4 WRs. So the 1.02-1.05 picks should go there as well. I don't think there's much of a drop this year from 1.02 to 1.06.
Click to expand...
What would lead you believe there is no drop between 1.02 to 1.06? So Evans is equal to the next 5 guys, and who are those 5, because from what I can tell it's all over the place after 1.02 up until the late 1st, so that leads me to believe there is a drop after 1.02, and no clear indication today on another drop until the late 1st.
Click to expand...
"not much of a drop" is different than saying they're equal. There's some drop for sure, but it's not as significant IMO as others seem to think.

I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.

 
Gandalf said:
It depends where the RBs land. And everyone else too for that matter.
Click to expand...
:yes: things will change in a few weeks.

Dismattle said:
Would anybody go all in on J. Clowney, IF the League includes IDP? Or Consider taking Mack before Manziel?
Click to expand...
Depends what you mean by "go all in". If you mean take him in the top 5, almost certainly not - maybe if the scoring for sacks is huge. If you mean taking him in the 1st round, perhaps. The IDP scoring would have to be huge for me to take any IDP over a top offensive prospect, but if Manziel drops and lands behind an entrenched starter (say he gets drafted by the Cowboys) then sure. But really only then.

 
I play in a two QB League, hence the edit

But yeah I could see Clowney being drafted earlier than most may expect (just a heads up to my fellow FBGer's)

 
Dismattle said:
Would anybody go all in on J. Clowney, IF the League includes IDP?
Click to expand...
This really depends on the rules and the size of the league. In IDP, it is hard to find good DE's so supply and demand is quite high for DE's this day. But going all in on a guy who could end up with OLB destination if drafted by Houston seems kind of insane. But with the exception of a few leagues, you have till after the NFL draft to make a decision on this. It is those with the very exciting before NFL draft DRAFTS that things would be interesting and the Houston part would be a little bit of a red flag.

 
Crippler said:
Dismattle said:
Would anybody go all in on J. Clowney, IF the League includes IDP?
Click to expand...
This really depends on the rules and the size of the league. In IDP, it is hard to find good DE's so supply and demand is quite high for DE's this day. But going all in on a guy who could end up with OLB destination if drafted by Houston seems kind of insane. But with the exception of a few leagues, you have till after the NFL draft to make a decision on this. It is those with the very exciting before NFL draft DRAFTS that things would be interesting and the Houston part would be a little bit of a red flag.
Click to expand...
I agree to some extent. It depends on the scoring for sacks however. I asked this question in the IDP forum here: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=705204

 
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.

 
cstu said:
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.
Click to expand...
I think Evans is a bigger Floyd...almost like Jeffery. Same concerns about speed/separation...not anymore though.

It's one thing to have concerns about a big WR that doesn't win jump balls or use his body to his advantage....Evans does though. Heck, Boldin only gets open the same way now and he's 6-1...imagine 4 more inches and longer arms/hands and a faster player!

 
tdmills said:
cstu said:
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.
Click to expand...
I think Evans is a bigger Floyd...almost like Jeffery. Same concerns about speed/separation...not anymore though.

It's one thing to have concerns about a big WR that doesn't win jump balls or use his body to his advantage....Evans does though. Heck, Boldin only gets open the same way now and he's 6-1...imagine 4 more inches and longer arms/hands and a faster player!
Click to expand...
It's not that I don't think Evans will be good, I just like the others too

 
FUBAR said:
tdmills said:
cstu said:
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.
Click to expand...
I think Evans is a bigger Floyd...almost like Jeffery. Same concerns about speed/separation...not anymore though.

It's one thing to have concerns about a big WR that doesn't win jump balls or use his body to his advantage....Evans does though. Heck, Boldin only gets open the same way now and he's 6-1...imagine 4 more inches and longer arms/hands and a faster player!
Click to expand...
It's not that I don't think Evans will be good, I just like the others too
Click to expand...
I wasn't referring to your post.

But now that you bring it up, I just don't see how those other players are even close. The NFL is pass 1st and WR's have a longer career. Most of the consistent top end FF producers at WR are tall. All of the prospects have holes in their games...so why not go with the one with the most likely outcome for a top end FF producer? TE's are very situation dependent, hyde/mason/seastrunk either aren't dynamic, don't have the size, can't catch, or don't run inside. I'll take "separation issues" over those RB question marks because QB's throw it high and outside all the time anyway.

 
tdmills said:
FUBAR said:
tdmills said:
cstu said:
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.
Click to expand...
I think Evans is a bigger Floyd...almost like Jeffery. Same concerns about speed/separation...not anymore though.

It's one thing to have concerns about a big WR that doesn't win jump balls or use his body to his advantage....Evans does though. Heck, Boldin only gets open the same way now and he's 6-1...imagine 4 more inches and longer arms/hands and a faster player!
Click to expand...
It's not that I don't think Evans will be good, I just like the others too
Click to expand...
I wasn't referring to your post.

But now that you bring it up, I just don't see how those other players are even close. The NFL is pass 1st and WR's have a longer career. Most of the consistent top end FF producers at WR are tall. All of the prospects have holes in their games...so why not go with the one with the most likely outcome for a top end FF producer? TE's are very situation dependent, hyde/mason/seastrunk either aren't dynamic, don't have the size, can't catch, or don't run inside. I'll take "separation issues" over those RB question marks because QB's throw it high and outside all the time anyway.
Click to expand...
I'd take Evans #2, but I think Ebron will be a top 5 TE and if the format is TE favorable he should be close to Evans in value over their careers. The RBs are much more format / situation dependent, but I like Hyde to be a workhorse. RBs still go higher than most WRs but that is changing - again, depends on the format and lineup requirements.

 
FUBAR said:
tdmills said:
FUBAR said:
tdmills said:
cstu said:
FUBAR said:
I'm not as big on Evans as some are, but just from my opinion - depending on the format and landing spots, I can see Ebron, Hyde, Mason, Evans, and Seastrunk (admittedly, I'm higher on him than some) as close in value. The option to choose which one you want has value, but compared to years where you had AJ Green and Julio Jones as far better prospects than the #6 guy (Cam/Murray/Ingram?) or Dez and Matthews vs. others, there is less of a drop from 2 to 6 this year.

of course this is just my opinion and it's based on whether we were to draft today.
Click to expand...
This is true, most of us are much higher on him.

I made the mistake of writing off Floyd because I didn't like his game or character, but Evans seems to be a similar but better player.
Click to expand...
I think Evans is a bigger Floyd...almost like Jeffery. Same concerns about speed/separation...not anymore though.

It's one thing to have concerns about a big WR that doesn't win jump balls or use his body to his advantage....Evans does though. Heck, Boldin only gets open the same way now and he's 6-1...imagine 4 more inches and longer arms/hands and a faster player!
Click to expand...
It's not that I don't think Evans will be good, I just like the others too
Click to expand...
I wasn't referring to your post.

But now that you bring it up, I just don't see how those other players are even close. The NFL is pass 1st and WR's have a longer career. Most of the consistent top end FF producers at WR are tall. All of the prospects have holes in their games...so why not go with the one with the most likely outcome for a top end FF producer? TE's are very situation dependent, hyde/mason/seastrunk either aren't dynamic, don't have the size, can't catch, or don't run inside. I'll take "separation issues" over those RB question marks because QB's throw it high and outside all the time anyway.
Click to expand...
I'd take Evans #2, but I think Ebron will be a top 5 TE and if the format is TE favorable he should be close to Evans in value over their careers. The RBs are much more format / situation dependent, but I like Hyde to be a workhorse. RBs still go higher than most WRs but that is changing - again, depends on the format and lineup requirements.
Click to expand...
I disagree on Ebron. TE's are situation depended....take away Graham/Gronk...Julius is linked to Peyton...VD did well without Crab, but once he was back it was little production. TE is a clumped position currently and I think if people don't get a graham/gronk or TE in a great situation....you could put them all in a hat and just pick one out. Ebron is athletic, but he isn't THAT athletic to overcome his size and drop concerns. He could have a couple of decent seasons, but I would rather wait vs dropping a top pick on him.

Agree on the RBs and I like Hyde....but all of them are just a whole tier behind Evans....I even have Lee, Beckham, Cooks ahead of all the RBs/Ebron currently. Now if Cooks/Beckham get drafted by Chicago and Hyde gets drafted by Tennessee or Atlanta, that changes things I agree.

 
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.

 
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?

 
Yeah, Watkins as a top 10 WR sounds good. Until you start naming the top 10 WRs that is. I just don't see how he cracks that ranking. Probably around WR14 or so is as high as I can justify ranking him.

 
For Watkins I think the exact ranking - wr10 vs 14. - is also dependent on who is throwing him the ball.

 
FUBAR said:
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?
Click to expand...
In dynasty leagues I would. Harvin always has something wrong with him. Cobb is closer, but he had a whopping 400+ yds and 4 tds in an injury plagued year and I'm not convinced Green Bay will ever view him as a WR 1A, but I could be wrong. Watkins' upside is greater IMO.

Updated to correct Cobb's stats for 2013.

 
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I'd have to agree with the above about Watkins. I'd likely take him over Harvin right now, and I view him about even with Cobb. All 3 have question marks right now.

I wouldn't take Watkins over the likes of Calvin, D Thomas, Gordon, Dez, Green, and Julio for sure. Those are everyone's top 6.

After them, though, would I take him over B Marsh in a brand new start up? Depends on if I want to be competitive now, or in 3 years. He's definitely somewhere in that next tier, at least to me, right now. Where does that put him in a brand new start up draft? Likely around 20-25ish. I was wondering more about the later picks, because at this point you're unsure of what player that would get you.

Would you "draft" the #3 rookie pick at #50? Some names of players going around that spot in brand new start up drafts - Zac Stacy, D Jackson, Jordan Reed and Nick Foles. I know a lot depends on league makeup and scoring rules....but in a "standard" dynasty league (12 teams lets say), would you rather have the #3 rookie or any of those guys?

 
I'd rank Watkins just bellow Patterson and Allen right now. They have proven to be very good NFL players and are just as young. Both of those guys are going around the WR12 range from what I'm seeing in dynasty drafts. I really don't see why he'd jump over them.

 
JohnnyU said:
FUBAR said:
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?
Click to expand...
In dynasty leagues I would. Harvin always has something wrong with him. Cobb is closer, but he had a whopping 300+ yds and 1 td in an injury plagued year and I'm not convinced Green Bay will ever view him as a WR 1A, but I could be wrong. Watkins' upside is greater IMO.
Click to expand...
Actually Cobb in 2013 posted 31 rec for 433 yards and 4 TDs in 6 games! In a 16 game season it equates = 83 receptions 1155 yards 11 TD

That's not even discussing missed time after he broke his leg or not being caught back up to game speed after his injury.

 
tdmills said:
JohnnyU said:
FUBAR said:
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?
Click to expand...
In dynasty leagues I would. Harvin always has something wrong with him. Cobb is closer, but he had a whopping 300+ yds and 1 td in an injury plagued year and I'm not convinced Green Bay will ever view him as a WR 1A, but I could be wrong. Watkins' upside is greater IMO.
Click to expand...
Actually Cobb in 2013 posted 31 rec for 433 yards and 4 TDs in 6 games! In a 16 game season it equates = 83 receptions 1155 yards 11 TD

That's not even discussing missed time after he broke his leg or not being caught back up to game speed after his injury.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that was just flat out lazy. People need to pay attention to how many games these players are in.

 
MoveToSkypager said:
tdmills said:
JohnnyU said:
FUBAR said:
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.

The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?
Click to expand...
In dynasty leagues I would. Harvin always has something wrong with him. Cobb is closer, but he had a whopping 300+ yds and 1 td in an injury plagued year and I'm not convinced Green Bay will ever view him as a WR 1A, but I could be wrong. Watkins' upside is greater IMO.
Click to expand...
Actually Cobb in 2013 posted 31 rec for 433 yards and 4 TDs in 6 games! In a 16 game season it equates = 83 receptions 1155 yards 11 TD

That's not even discussing missed time after he broke his leg or not being caught back up to game speed after his injury.
Click to expand...
Yeah, that was just flat out lazy. People need to pay attention to how many games these players are in.
Click to expand...
Actually, that was an accident because the 2011 status were right under the 2013 (most recent stats), but really, the jist of my post was whether you think Cobb is a WR #1A or not and who has higher upside between him and Watkins, not his stats from an injury plagued year and what they average out to over the course of an entire season.

 
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JohnnyU said:
MoveToSkypager said:
tdmills said:
JohnnyU said:
FUBAR said:
ffgiant said:
FUBAR said:
WR: Watkins goes in tier 3 (12-20) with Hopkins, Allen, Fitz, Floyd... Evans the next tier with Hilton, TSmith, Wright, Maclin. Lee just a bit lower.
Click to expand...
I like the thought process. But I have to disagree on the exact tier. I believe Watkins should be around top 10 WR, Evans probably on the 10-20 range. Of course it depends on where they land as well.The ongoing price for the 1.01 and 1.02 probably reflects this value from the leagues I am in, maybe a little higher due to the predraft hype.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Maybe, but would you really take him over Harvin or Cobb?
Click to expand...
In dynasty leagues I would. Harvin always has something wrong with him. Cobb is closer, but he had a whopping 300+ yds and 1 td in an injury plagued year and I'm not convinced Green Bay will ever view him as a WR 1A, but I could be wrong. Watkins' upside is greater IMO.
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Actually Cobb in 2013 posted 31 rec for 433 yards and 4 TDs in 6 games! In a 16 game season it equates = 83 receptions 1155 yards 11 TD

That's not even discussing missed time after he broke his leg or not being caught back up to game speed after his injury.
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Yeah, that was just flat out lazy. People need to pay attention to how many games these players are in.
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Actually, that was an accident because the 2011 status were right under the 2013 (most recent stats), but really, the jist of my post was whether you think Cobb is a WR #1A or not and who has higher upside between him and Watkins, not his stats from an injury plagued year and what they average out to over the course of an entire season.
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Can't see Watkins going to a situation anywhere close to Cobb, so this would be an easy Cobb > Watkins.

 
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