Is Fitz done as a top 10 WR? (1 Viewer)

Some of my toughest trade offer declined this dynasty offseason have involved Larry Fitzgerald. I've been offered him a few times in separate leagues for mid 1st round rookie picks. Sometimes the trades you don't make an end up haunting you (I turned down a high 1st offer that ended up being the 1.01 for my Danny Amendola last offseason as 1 example) and if Fitz bounces back to his 2011 form of 1,400 yards, I will be kicking myself.

But what are the chances he ever has another 1300 yard season?

Positives:

- He's a really talented guy which is a great starting point for any analysis.

- The Arians system is passing friendly.

- The Cardinals OL could be much improved.

-Carson should at least be competent, which is more than you can say about a lot of other recent AZ QBs

Negatives:

- he turns 31 before the season.

-he has had only 1 really good season in the past 5 years

- Carson is just a guy at this point. Unlike Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck aren't walking through that door.

- The NFC West is going to be the best defensive division in football. Seattle is loaded and there's 2 games where Sherman covers him. St. Louis has a lot of young talent on D and could add even more with two top picks. And SF obviously is super stingy as well. I don't expect the cardinals (whose d looks pretty damn good also) to be playing in a lot of wide open shoot outs.

- Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington and potentially a high skill position draft choice mean he is not likely to get 174 targets like he did in his 1 recent huge season. He had 136 last year, which isn't bad, but projects more towards 80 receptions and not the 95-100 he had in some early years where he was targeted 160+ times.

Anyway, tough call for me but the odds point more towards solid WR2 numbers (80-1100-8) and not towards a bounce back to the elite numbers he once produced (95-1400-12). For a 31 year old, those numbers along with the normal decline would mean he still has value. But it would also mean his days as an elite dynasty and even redraft WR would be over...

As long as the Def plays strong,,

I would expect a few good games for sure...

Personally I havnt seen the value others place on Fitz for yrs ie. @ 2008/2009 (Boldin Fan!)

However as you stated, Fitz had 8 td's/ 1400 yds just a few yrs ago too. The interesting part there (for me) is Fitz signed an 8 yr Contract to start the Season

(Id like to know of something different per say to help sway me to believe an x amt of yds improvement)

Top 10 may be pushing it, but I wouldn't be surprised if he flirts with top 10 for a few more years. He's got a massive cap number next year and could very well be gone from Arizona. His dynasty value really hinges on where you think he would end up in 2015.

He's been putting up wr #2 boarder line #3 numbers over the last 3 seasons.

I may not even put him in top 15

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Cobb

Cruz

Garçon

Nelson

Harvin

Torrey Smith

Crabtree

Allen

How often has he had a decent QB the last few years. If he can stay healthy as well as Palmer he could have a couple top 10 years.

Last year he was hurt a lot and he needs to stay healthy to do it.

I think Top 10 is pushing it. (I think he's a WR2 with bottom end WR1 upside)

Though he's done a good job of staying healthy, the pass rushes in the NFC West scare me with Carson back there. JMO There's a great likelihood he's a WR3 than WR1.

Dynasty wise, he probably won't make into Top 10. But for redraft he still might make to top 10. I currently rank him around 20 in dynasty WR rankings.

12-15 range for redraft.

top 10 is harder than ever to break into for WR, and with a capable #2 in Floyd, it's asking too much to expect Fitzgerald to ever get back to WR1 status

Sigmund Bloom said:

top 10 is harder than ever to break into for WR, and with a capable #2 in Floyd, it's asking too much to expect Fitzgerald to ever get back to WR1 status

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Agreed, and I'd take it a step further, in that I think its very likely that Floyd has(or is soon to) surpass Fitzgerald as the #1 on the Cardinals.

dansav said:

He's been putting up wr #2 boarder line #3 numbers over the last 3 seasons.

I may not even put him in top 15

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Cobb

Cruz

Garçon

Nelson

Harvin

Torrey Smith

Crabtree

Allen

Click to expand...

Not really sold on the following - and view a guy like Fitzgerald as a great value pick. Not saying his value / perceived value is higher than the following - but could prove to have more value/production than these guys.

Cobb - he gets injured too much and his rookie contact comes to an end in 2014 - He is going to want big money in 2015 and Boykin may end up taking his place on the roster - especially if he gets injured again this year.

Harvin - again major injury concerns here and Wilson is not a prolific passer. Seattle is a run first team - as talented as Harvin is when healthy - he has many questions surrounding him.

Torrey Smith - last year 65-1100-4 does not inspire much to get excited about as the true #1. Flacco has failed yet again to prove he can throw the vertical ball.

Garcon - no way his targets / receptions / yards are what they were last year with the additions of DeSean and Roberts. Bigger question is RG3 - will he return to form? Love Garcon - not so much the situation.

Cruz - so what is Cruz going forward? Nicks is gone so maybe that increases his chances - but he is still a small speed WR that depends of the worst statistical QB ever in Eli - will Eli return to form? Can Ruben Randle step up or will Cruz see more coverage without Nicks?

The rest of the guys on the list

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Nelson

Crabtree

Allen

That leaves 12 guys on the list - so I would probably have Fitz in the 12-15 range. Sure in Dynasty - Cobb and Harvin could/should demand more value than Fitz right now - but I would be a seller of those players in dynasty and would love to get a Fitz + something in return.

Wouldn't expect anything more than what he did last season. He's a borderline top 20 WR.

To answer the question- Yes

No.

If the Cards improve that line (big if) then I think he's definitely back in the top 10. His age isn't good for a running back, but is still prime for a WR. He could be top 5 if things fall in place. But on a FF board, there's a lot of what have you done lately, so of course people are going to say no to a guy who has been in as bad of a situation as Fitz. Last year he showed promise in week 1, but suffered through a hamstring injury starting in week 2.

Fitz is a hard worker. He'll be back to pre-hamstring injury shape this year and will be on the same page with Palmer. He's a great buy low candidate. I'll be looking to snag him in all my redrafts. He just went 36th overall (WR12) in my PDSL draft. I took AJ a few picks later as WR15. As a general rule, WRs over the age of 30 coming off a down year are redraft (and probably dynasty) bargains so long as you can pinpoint why the down year happened and you are comfortable that this won't be a problem in the current year.

FF Ninja said:

No.

If the Cards improve that line (big if) then I think he's definitely back in the top 10. His age isn't good for a running back, but is still prime for a WR. He could be top 5 if things fall in place. But on a FF board, there's a lot of what have you done lately, so of course people are going to say no to a guy who has been in as bad of a situation as Fitz. Last year he showed promise in week 1, but suffered through a hamstring injury starting in week 2.

Fitz is a hard worker. He'll be back to pre-hamstring injury shape this year and will be on the same page with Palmer. He's a great buy low candidate. I'll be looking to snag him in all my redrafts. He just went 36th overall (WR12) in my PDSL draft. I took AJ a few picks later as WR15. As a general rule, WRs over the age of 30 coming off a down year are redraft (and probably dynasty) bargains so long as you can pinpoint why the down year happened and you are comfortable that this won't be a problem in the current year.

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I appreciate your posting, because I have a feeling a lot of Guru's feel this exact way!

I would be totally shocked if Fitz were able to break into the Top 5 (Six or Seven guys already chomping to own a spot there)

Now the actual question (per OP) is top ten.

Personally when I view everything besides Fitz talent, I do not see a huge yr. I would suspect the AZ Defense to continue to improve, meaning even less reason to throw the ball and/or achieve garbage time yds.

p.s. What exactly would you tell your GM after Fitz lit your team up for 200 yds? 1) Yes, but We shut down the Run game 2) He did have some luck, but now we have more game film 3) I already told ya, I want a new Contract /Trade..

FF Ninja said:

No.

If the Cards improve that line (big if) then I think he's definitely back in the top 10. His age isn't good for a running back, but is still prime for a WR. He could be top 5 if things fall in place. But on a FF board, there's a lot of what have you done lately, so of course people are going to say no to a guy who has been in as bad of a situation as Fitz. Last year he showed promise in week 1, but suffered through a hamstring injury starting in week 2.

Fitz is a hard worker. He'll be back to pre-hamstring injury shape this year and will be on the same page with Palmer. He's a great buy low candidate. I'll be looking to snag him in all my redrafts. He just went 36th overall (WR12) in my PDSL draft. I took AJ a few picks later as WR15. As a general rule, WRs over the age of 30 coming off a down year are redraft (and probably dynasty) bargains so long as you can pinpoint why the down year happened and you are comfortable that this won't be a problem in the current year.

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I don't think the oline is as big an "if" as you do. I actually really like Arz this year primarily because of the drastic improvements they have made on the oline. Signing Veldher was maybe the best signing of any team this offseason. I'm really not sure why this isn't getting more ink. It's a HUGE deal in Arz. As if that wasn't good enough, Arz will also get to finally see what their stud G from last years draft is made of. Cooper missed all of last season and IMO he is a difference maker with Pro Bowl potential. Veldher and Cooper will line up next to each other and make an immense impact for this offense.

Dismattle said:

FF Ninja said:

No.

If the Cards improve that line (big if) then I think he's definitely back in the top 10. His age isn't good for a running back, but is still prime for a WR. He could be top 5 if things fall in place. But on a FF board, there's a lot of what have you done lately, so of course people are going to say no to a guy who has been in as bad of a situation as Fitz. Last year he showed promise in week 1, but suffered through a hamstring injury starting in week 2.

Fitz is a hard worker. He'll be back to pre-hamstring injury shape this year and will be on the same page with Palmer. He's a great buy low candidate. I'll be looking to snag him in all my redrafts. He just went 36th overall (WR12) in my PDSL draft. I took AJ a few picks later as WR15. As a general rule, WRs over the age of 30 coming off a down year are redraft (and probably dynasty) bargains so long as you can pinpoint why the down year happened and you are comfortable that this won't be a problem in the current year.

Click to expand...

I appreciate your posting, because I have a feeling a lot of Guru's feel this exact way!

I would be totally shocked if Fitz were able to break into the Top 5 (Six or Seven guys already chomping to own a spot there)

Now the actual question (per OP) is top ten.

Personally when I view everything besides Fitz talent, I do not see a huge yr. I would suspect the AZ Defense to continue to improve, meaning even less reason to throw the ball and/or achieve garbage time yds.

p.s. What exactly would you tell your GM after Fitz lit your team up for 200 yds? 1) Yes, but We shut down the Run game 2) He did have some luck, but now we have more game film 3) I already told ya, I want a new Contract /Trade..

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Sure, the top 5 looks crowded. Usually does. But 205 points (FBG scoring) should do the trick. Fitz was clearly hampered last year, the line was awful, and he still snagged 10 TDs. That's why he's always a risk of cracking the top 5. He's never going to put up 1600+ yards, but he's a guy who can snag 12 TDs in an offense that only throws for 30. So I'm not saying he's a lock for top 5, but 1400 yards and 12 TDs is very possible next year which would be 212 points and a likely top 5 finish.

I agree that Arizona won't need to throw it a ton, but they will throw it enough and Arians will air it out. Palmer's still got the arm. The only question is if he'll have the time. If they improve the line, if Fitz is healthy, and if Palmer is healthy, then I will be shocked if he doesn't finish top 10.

You might say, well, who is going to depart the top 5? My guess is Gordon. Next, I think DT is a beast, but barring another career year by Peyton, I think he's around to 1300/10. How will Green/Dalton do without their OC next year? Marshall just doesn't have the YPR to do it without high TD numbers and he's not a very high TD/rec guy. The top 5 isn't impenetrable.

jurb26 said:

I don't think the oline is as big an "if" as you do. I actually really like Arz this year primarily because of the drastic improvements they have made on the oline. Signing Veldher was maybe the best signing of any team this offseason. I'm really not sure why this isn't getting more ink. It's a HUGE deal in Arz. As if that wasn't good enough, Arz will also get to finally see what their stug G from last years draft is made of. Cooper missed all of last season and IMO he is a difference with Pro Bowl potential. Veldher and Cooper will line up nex to each other and make an immense impact for this offense.

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Great point. I had totally forgotten about Veldheer and resigned to not revisit o-lines until after the draft. And I remember Cooper from last year, thinking they were probably effed after he got hurt as they already had question marks on the line. Getting those two guys will be huge, so you are making me more confident in Fitz already!

He'll be a great auction target and I'd be happy to snag him at the end of the 3rd round, but if you pick near the front, I know it will be hard to reach for him at like a 3.01 pick... further reason why snake drafts need to die.

Well, I've offered a mid 1st plus for Fitz in 12 man PPR and the guy who is in a rebuild situation turned me down. He has it in his mind that Fitz is worth 2 - mid 1sts. Can't find anyone who'd consider trading 2 - mid 1sts for Fitz.

I like Fitz to be a high WR2 type, around WR15-20 for me as I'm a win now team in need of a WR1 or WR2. However as the draft gets closer, I'm finding it hard to even want to move that mid 1st for Fitz, he's been quite avg of late & Floyd seems to be the one to own.

jesseasi said:

dansav said:

He's been putting up wr #2 boarder line #3 numbers over the last 3 seasons.

I may not even put him in top 15

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Cobb

Cruz

Garçon

Nelson

Harvin

Torrey Smith

Crabtree

Allen

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Cobb - he gets injured too much.

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Did I miss something? He's played 15/15/6 games in his career. Year 2, IIRC, he got hurt on a punt return in game 15. Doesn't seem to be injury prone.

jesseasi said:

dansav said:

He's been putting up wr #2 boarder line #3 numbers over the last 3 seasons.

I may not even put him in top 15

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Cobb

Cruz

Garçon

Nelson

Harvin

Torrey Smith

Crabtree

Allen

Click to expand...

Not really sold on the following - and view a guy like Fitzgerald as a great value pick. Not saying his value / perceived value is higher than the following - but could prove to have more value/production than these guys.

Cobb - he gets injured too much and his rookie contact comes to an end in 2014 - He is going to want big money in 2015 and Boykin may end up taking his place on the roster - especially if he gets injured again this year.

Harvin - again major injury concerns here and Wilson is not a prolific passer. Seattle is a run first team - as talented as Harvin is when healthy - he has many questions surrounding him.

Torrey Smith - last year 65-1100-4 does not inspire much to get excited about as the true #1. Flacco has failed yet again to prove he can throw the vertical ball.

Garcon - no way his targets / receptions / yards are what they were last year with the additions of DeSean and Roberts. Bigger question is RG3 - will he return to form? Love Garcon - not so much the situation.

Cruz - so what is Cruz going forward? Nicks is gone so maybe that increases his chances - but he is still a small speed WR that depends of the worst statistical QB ever in Eli - will Eli return to form? Can Ruben Randle step up or will Cruz see more coverage without Nicks?

The rest of the guys on the list

Megatron

Gordon

Thomas

Green

Bryant

Jones

Marshall

Jefferies

A Brown

Nelson

Crabtree

Allen

That leaves 12 guys on the list - so I would probably have Fitz in the 12-15 range. Sure in Dynasty - Cobb and Harvin could/should demand more value than Fitz right now - but I would be a seller of those players in dynasty and would love to get a Fitz + something in return.

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Totally agree in dynasty I have fitz 12-15 and redraft 10-12 it's tough because their is a lot of good wrs... I think 2 from this class are already worth more in Watkins/Evans. So every year Fitz drops a rung or two. 31 isn't old but he isn't a spring chicken. I think he posts 80-1300-9 if healthy and the line is healthy in 2014.

Over the past 5 seasons, Fitz has averaged 12.8 ypr. So projecting 1400 yards implies that he will either drastically improve his ypr or have 100+ receptions. (1400 yards at 12.8 ypr requires 110 receptions.)

The last time Fitz had more than 90 receptions was 2009, his last season with Warner. 100+ receptions seems very unlikely. So to discuss the possibility of 1400 yards, what would you be expecting as his number of receptions and ypr?

And how many targets would you expect for him to reach those numbers?

I've owned Fitz for the past few years, so I've tracked him fairly closely. IMO there is virtually no chance he will ever again finish top 5. And maybe a 5% chance that he'll ever finish top 10 again.

Agree with those that cited the OL. That will help out Palmer a lot. Fitz will then get more chances. 31 is not all that old - I like him to make a nice rebound.

Looking at the Cardinals last year:

Palmer attempted 572 passes, good for 10th in the NFL. Fitzgerald saw 135 targets last year -- the lowest total since his 13 game season in 2006. Michael Floyd's targets rose from 86 to 111, and I have to think they'll increase again by at least 10%; most likely 20%. Andre Roberts had 76 targets and he's gone. Ted Ginn may not take all of those, but he'll probably see at least 60, and possibly more. Ellington had 57 targets last year and I'd expect that number to rise by at least 25%. The TE's saw 73 targets and that number could go down a bit, especially with Arians' recent quote about how he wants his TE's to block first and catch second.

I'd be surprised if Palmer's attempts increase this season. He was already on the higher end, and he attempted 32 or fewer passes in 6 games and the Cardinals won every one of those. Their defense is improving, and, while he'll still be involved in a shootout here and there, I don't see a good reason to project an uptick in passes. Accordingly, I don't see Fitzgerald's targets rising. He was hurt a bit last year, but even if he makes it through all 16 games fully healthy, I see him in the 125-140 range. It's possible he could catch a higher percentage of his targets but I have a hard time seeing him topping 80-85 catches, and with Floyd and Ginn seeing the long balls, I think it's likely that Fitzgerald's YPC stays in the 11.0 - 12.0 range. He also had only 2 games last season with more than 6 receptions. Owners bought into the notion that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, but Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck.

Bottom line: if you asked me whether I think there's a better chance of Fitzgerald finishing the season as a WR1/2 or a WR3/4, I'd pick the latter.

He will be outside the top 10 more than he's in for the remainder of his career.

I really think he's underrated but he needs a better qb than Palmer, who just isn't good.

Hasn't had a Qb since Warner

voiceofunreason said:

I really think he's underrated but he needs a better qb than Palmer, who just isn't good.

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To get into the top 10 he needs better than Palmer, but after that mess they had in 2012, Carson is fine by me.

I have no illusions that Fitz will be top-10 in any future season. Having just acquired him prior to last season for two 1st rounders (2014 and 2015), I am banking on him having at least a few high end WR2 seasons moving forward. To me, a high end WR2 season would be finishing somewhere between WR13-WR16 at years end. Last year he finished WR9 in my league. So far he has paid huge dividends because while he was not the most important piece of my championship winning squad last year, he certainly played a critical role.

I don't necessarily think he is "done" as a top-10 WR because he surely has the talent to actually be one again, but I feel he is very capable of putting up high end WR2 numbers with the slight chance of moving up into the top-10 with the right supporting cast and the right play-calling.

Steed said:

voiceofunreason said:

I really think he's underrated but he needs a better qb than Palmer, who just isn't good.

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To get into the top 10 he needs better than Palmer, but after that mess they had in 2012, Carson is fine by me.

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So Palmer is worse than Skelton + Kolb?

People are way too caught up in the "what have you done lately?" mindset here. I honestly don't own Fitz in any long term leagues, but I know I must sound like a guy with blind optimism compared to this crowd of nay sayers, but seriously, do the math...

He'll be 31 which is still a wide receiver's prime.

He finished WR16 last year while struggling with hamstring issues since week 2.

He finished WR5 at age 28 with the putrid combo of Skleton + Kolb.

TS Garp said:

Looking at the Cardinals last year:

Palmer attempted 572 passes, good for 10th in the NFL. Fitzgerald saw 135 targets last year -- the lowest total since his 13 game season in 2006. Michael Floyd's targets rose from 86 to 111, and I have to think they'll increase again by at least 10%; most likely 20%. Andre Roberts had 76 targets and he's gone. Ted Ginn may not take all of those, but he'll probably see at least 60, and possibly more. Ellington had 57 targets last year and I'd expect that number to rise by at least 25%. The TE's saw 73 targets and that number could go down a bit, especially with Arians' recent quote about how he wants his TE's to block first and catch second.

I'd be surprised if Palmer's attempts increase this season. He was already on the higher end, and he attempted 32 or fewer passes in 6 games and the Cardinals won every one of those. Their defense is improving, and, while he'll still be involved in a shootout here and there, I don't see a good reason to project an uptick in passes. Accordingly, I don't see Fitzgerald's targets rising. He was hurt a bit last year, but even if he makes it through all 16 games fully healthy, I see him in the 125-140 range. It's possible he could catch a higher percentage of his targets but I have a hard time seeing him topping 80-85 catches, and with Floyd and Ginn seeing the long balls, I think it's likely that Fitzgerald's YPC stays in the 11.0 - 12.0 range. He also had only 2 games last season with more than 6 receptions. Owners bought into the notion that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, but Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck.

Bottom line: if you asked me whether I think there's a better chance of Fitzgerald finishing the season as a WR1/2 or a WR3/4, I'd pick the latter.

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That hamstring issue wasn't a minor problem. I think if he's 100% healthy, he'll be Palmer's focus. Floyd is good, but he's no Fitz.

As for your last assertion, see below:

Carson Palmer 2013 vs. Andrew Luck 2012

362/572/4274, 63% 7.5 ypa, 24/22 vs. 339/627/4374 54% 7.0 ypa, 23/18

Fitz 2013 vs. Wayne 2012

135 targets, 82/954/10 (WR16) vs. 195 targets, 106/1355/6 (WR15)

Give Palmer 55 more attempts and Fitzgerald 60 more targets and magically Wayne and Luck don't look so awesome. Far too often people confuse quantity for quality on these boards.

Sabertooth said:

Hasn't had a Qb since Warner

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So? What does that have to so with the topic?

FF Ninja said:

TS Garp said:

Looking at the Cardinals last year:

Palmer attempted 572 passes, good for 10th in the NFL. Fitzgerald saw 135 targets last year -- the lowest total since his 13 game season in 2006. Michael Floyd's targets rose from 86 to 111, and I have to think they'll increase again by at least 10%; most likely 20%. Andre Roberts had 76 targets and he's gone. Ted Ginn may not take all of those, but he'll probably see at least 60, and possibly more. Ellington had 57 targets last year and I'd expect that number to rise by at least 25%. The TE's saw 73 targets and that number could go down a bit, especially with Arians' recent quote about how he wants his TE's to block first and catch second.

I'd be surprised if Palmer's attempts increase this season. He was already on the higher end, and he attempted 32 or fewer passes in 6 games and the Cardinals won every one of those. Their defense is improving, and, while he'll still be involved in a shootout here and there, I don't see a good reason to project an uptick in passes. Accordingly, I don't see Fitzgerald's targets rising. He was hurt a bit last year, but even if he makes it through all 16 games fully healthy, I see him in the 125-140 range. It's possible he could catch a higher percentage of his targets but I have a hard time seeing him topping 80-85 catches, and with Floyd and Ginn seeing the long balls, I think it's likely that Fitzgerald's YPC stays in the 11.0 - 12.0 range. He also had only 2 games last season with more than 6 receptions. Owners bought into the notion that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, but Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck.

Bottom line: if you asked me whether I think there's a better chance of Fitzgerald finishing the season as a WR1/2 or a WR3/4, I'd pick the latter.

Click to expand...

That hamstring issue wasn't a minor problem. I think if he's 100% healthy, he'll be Palmer's focus. Floyd is good, but he's no Fitz.

As for your last assertion, see below:

Carson Palmer 2013 vs. Andrew Luck 2012

362/572/4274, 63% 7.5 ypa, 24/22 vs. 339/627/4374 54% 7.0 ypa, 23/18

Fitz 2013 vs. Wayne 2012

135 targets, 82/954/10 (WR16) vs. 195 targets, 106/1355/6 (WR15)

Give Palmer 55 more attempts and Fitzgerald 60 more targets and magically Wayne and Luck don't look so awesome. Far too often people confuse quantity for quality on these boards.

Click to expand...

I think we can all agree that if Fitz gets 195 targets he will almost certainly finish top 10. Since you are the one bringing this up, how many targets are you expecting this year and beyond?

But you bring up quality vs. quantity, which implies you think he can/will have a top 10 season based on many fewer targets. How about showing some projections on targets, receptions, yards, ypr, TDs?

Just Win Baby said:

FF Ninja said:

TS Garp said:

Looking at the Cardinals last year:

Palmer attempted 572 passes, good for 10th in the NFL. Fitzgerald saw 135 targets last year -- the lowest total since his 13 game season in 2006. Michael Floyd's targets rose from 86 to 111, and I have to think they'll increase again by at least 10%; most likely 20%. Andre Roberts had 76 targets and he's gone. Ted Ginn may not take all of those, but he'll probably see at least 60, and possibly more. Ellington had 57 targets last year and I'd expect that number to rise by at least 25%. The TE's saw 73 targets and that number could go down a bit, especially with Arians' recent quote about how he wants his TE's to block first and catch second.

I'd be surprised if Palmer's attempts increase this season. He was already on the higher end, and he attempted 32 or fewer passes in 6 games and the Cardinals won every one of those. Their defense is improving, and, while he'll still be involved in a shootout here and there, I don't see a good reason to project an uptick in passes. Accordingly, I don't see Fitzgerald's targets rising. He was hurt a bit last year, but even if he makes it through all 16 games fully healthy, I see him in the 125-140 range. It's possible he could catch a higher percentage of his targets but I have a hard time seeing him topping 80-85 catches, and with Floyd and Ginn seeing the long balls, I think it's likely that Fitzgerald's YPC stays in the 11.0 - 12.0 range. He also had only 2 games last season with more than 6 receptions. Owners bought into the notion that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, but Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck.

Bottom line: if you asked me whether I think there's a better chance of Fitzgerald finishing the season as a WR1/2 or a WR3/4, I'd pick the latter.

Click to expand...

That hamstring issue wasn't a minor problem. I think if he's 100% healthy, he'll be Palmer's focus. Floyd is good, but he's no Fitz.

As for your last assertion, see below:

Carson Palmer 2013 vs. Andrew Luck 2012

362/572/4274, 63% 7.5 ypa, 24/22 vs. 339/627/4374 54% 7.0 ypa, 23/18

Fitz 2013 vs. Wayne 2012

135 targets, 82/954/10 (WR16) vs. 195 targets, 106/1355/6 (WR15)

Give Palmer 55 more attempts and Fitzgerald 60 more targets and magically Wayne and Luck don't look so awesome. Far too often people confuse quantity for quality on these boards.

Click to expand...

I think we can all agree that if Fitz gets 195 targets he will almost certainly finish top 10. Since you are the one bringing this up, how many targets are you expecting this year and beyond?

But you bring up quality vs. quantity, which implies you think he can/will have a top 10 season based on many fewer targets. How about showing some projections on targets, receptions, yards, ypr, TDs?

Click to expand...

I only bring it up in response to the notion that people thought Arians would do for Fitz what he did for Wayne... Wayne finished WR15, Fitz finished WR16 while injured. And because he said Palmer is no Luck, when in fact, Palmer was better than Luck in passing metrics.

But sure, I'll throw out some projections...

145 targets x 60% catch rate = 87 rec x 13.5 ypr = 1175 yds 11 TD = 183.5 FP

That should be fringe top 10 which would be great value for his current ADP. I know someone above wanted to pigeon hole him into 11-12 ypr but that's silly. I know they are just looking at the last two years and thinking he's old and declining, but he was hurt last year and he was double teamed and saddled with the worst QBs in the league the year before. There are a lot of things that could help him out... Arians' propensity to go deep, his catch rate could be better than 60% (it was actually 60.7% last year), Palmer could focus on him, etc. I don't think people realize how debilitating a hamstring injury is for a WR. Next year could be drastically different for him. Week 1 was his best game - 14 targets. He got hurt in week 2 (or at the end of week 1, I don't recall).

Actually, looks like he had two hamstring injuries:

Sun Oct 13, 10:59 PM

Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) suffered a right hamstring injury in the Week 6 game against the San Francisco 49ers, and he reportedly could barely bend over in the locker room after the game. He has been battling hamstring injuries for most of the season, but his previous injury was to the left hamstring.

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FF Ninja said:

That should be fringe top 10 which would be great value for his current ADP. I know someone above wanted to pigeon hole him into 11-12 ypr but that's silly. I know they are just looking at the last two years and thinking he's old and declining, but he was hurt last year and he was double teamed and saddled with the worst QBs in the league the year before.

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I posted about his ypr. I didn't pigeonhole him. I cited his ypr over the past 5 years, not 2 years. That included a large sample of QBs, including his last season with Warner. He averaged 12.8 ypr overall during that span, and that number is inflated by his 2011 average of 17.6 ypr. In the other 4 seasons, including the last Warner and first Palmer seasons, he collectively averaged 11.7 ypr and less than 1000 receiving yards per season.

Given his recent history and the other receiving targets on the team, it seems unlikely that he will trend up on ypr.

FF Ninja said:

TS Garp said:

Looking at the Cardinals last year:

Palmer attempted 572 passes, good for 10th in the NFL. Fitzgerald saw 135 targets last year -- the lowest total since his 13 game season in 2006. Michael Floyd's targets rose from 86 to 111, and I have to think they'll increase again by at least 10%; most likely 20%. Andre Roberts had 76 targets and he's gone. Ted Ginn may not take all of those, but he'll probably see at least 60, and possibly more. Ellington had 57 targets last year and I'd expect that number to rise by at least 25%. The TE's saw 73 targets and that number could go down a bit, especially with Arians' recent quote about how he wants his TE's to block first and catch second.

I'd be surprised if Palmer's attempts increase this season. He was already on the higher end, and he attempted 32 or fewer passes in 6 games and the Cardinals won every one of those. Their defense is improving, and, while he'll still be involved in a shootout here and there, I don't see a good reason to project an uptick in passes. Accordingly, I don't see Fitzgerald's targets rising. He was hurt a bit last year, but even if he makes it through all 16 games fully healthy, I see him in the 125-140 range. It's possible he could catch a higher percentage of his targets but I have a hard time seeing him topping 80-85 catches, and with Floyd and Ginn seeing the long balls, I think it's likely that Fitzgerald's YPC stays in the 11.0 - 12.0 range. He also had only 2 games last season with more than 6 receptions. Owners bought into the notion that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Reggie Wayne in Indianapolis, but Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck.

Bottom line: if you asked me whether I think there's a better chance of Fitzgerald finishing the season as a WR1/2 or a WR3/4, I'd pick the latter.

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That hamstring issue wasn't a minor problem. I think if he's 100% healthy, he'll be Palmer's focus. Floyd is good, but he's no Fitz.

As for your last assertion, see below:

Carson Palmer 2013 vs. Andrew Luck 2012

362/572/4274, 63% 7.5 ypa, 24/22 vs. 339/627/4374 54% 7.0 ypa, 23/18

Fitz 2013 vs. Wayne 2012

135 targets, 82/954/10 (WR16) vs. 195 targets, 106/1355/6 (WR15)

Give Palmer 55 more attempts and Fitzgerald 60 more targets and magically Wayne and Luck don't look so awesome. Far too often people confuse quantity for quality on these boards.

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My "Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck" comment was a bit glib, although, getting beyond those base numbers, I don't think anyone who watched Luck in 2012 and Palmer in 2013 would say that Palmer was the better QB. Not by a long shot. That aside, the fact that Wayne saw 195 targets is exactly what I was getting at (and should have said) when I commented on owners hoping that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Wayne, which was to force-feed him the ball. That didn't happen in 2013 and I really can't see it changing this season.

Just Win Baby said:

FF Ninja said:

That should be fringe top 10 which would be great value for his current ADP. I know someone above wanted to pigeon hole him into 11-12 ypr but that's silly. I know they are just looking at the last two years and thinking he's old and declining, but he was hurt last year and he was double teamed and saddled with the worst QBs in the league the year before.

Click to expand...

I posted about his ypr. I didn't pigeonhole him. I cited his ypr over the past 5 years, not 2 years. That included a large sample of QBs, including his last season with Warner. He averaged 12.8 ypr overall during that span, and that number is inflated by his 2011 average of 17.6 ypr. In the other 4 seasons, including the last Warner and first Palmer seasons, he collectively averaged 11.7 ypr and less than 1000 receiving yards per season.

Given his recent history and the other receiving targets on the team, it seems unlikely that he will trend up on ypr.

Click to expand...

Haha. Yes, a large sample of QBs indeed! He played 14 games with Warner... probably a little less. Warner got injured mid-game, missed the next game, and played one series in week 17. So in this sample we've got most of a season with Warner and a full season with injured hamstrings with Palmer. But the three seasons in between? A large sample of crap. I just ran it through the data dominator. From 2010-2012, the Cardinals' QBs ranked dead last in YPA. So given that he'll presumably be healthy next year and have Palmer as his QB, i think an uptick in YPR is likely for Fitzgerald.

TS Garp said:

My "Carson Palmer is no Andrew Luck" comment was a bit glib, although, getting beyond those base numbers, I don't think anyone who watched Luck in 2012 and Palmer in 2013 would say that Palmer was the better QB. Not by a long shot. That aside, the fact that Wayne saw 195 targets is exactly what I was getting at (and should have said) when I commented on owners hoping that Arians would do for Fitzgerald what he did for Wayne, which was to force-feed him the ball. That didn't happen in 2013 and I really can't see it changing this season.

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Luck did a lot with his legs, but purely as a passer, he just wasn't as good. Carson also had one of the worst offensive lines last year, not that Luck was dealing with a pro bowl cast. Furthermore, Carson played three of the best defenses in the league six times while Luck was playing in a much softer defensive division. I honestly believe that if you found an unbiased analyst that they'd say Palmer was easily the better passer last year. But keep in mind Palmer is an old veteran, once one of the best in the league, and Luck was a rookie at the time. No shame at all in not being as good.

The sample size isn't good enough, but Fizgerald did get 14 targets in the first game. The injury derailed whatever plans they had for the rest of the season. The skill difference between an injured Fitzgerald and a healthy Floyd isn't nearly the gap between Wayne/Avery was in 2012. I'm pretty interested to see the combination of healthy Fitzgerald + Carson + Arians + improved O-line.

I read over some of the opinions in this thread while debating to take Fitz in the 5th round of a startup after 25+ WRs were off the board - I liked his value there. There's some promising examples of age ~30+ WRs putting up nice numbers the last few years:

Reggie Wayne: age 33/34

2012 - 106/1335/5 on 195 targets (12.8 ypr)

2013 - 38/503/2 on 58 targets (13.2 ypr), thru 7 games - per 16 games equates to 86/1,150/5

Andre Johnson: age 31/32

2012 - 112/1600/4 on 180 targets (14 ypr)

2013 - 109/1400/5 on 180 targets (13 ypr)

Brandon Marshall: age 29

2013 - 100/1300/12 on 164 targets (13 ypr)

Randy Moss: age 31/32

2008 - 69/1000/11 on 126 targets (14.6 ypr)

2009 - 83/1,250/13 on 138 targets (15 ypr)

So Fitzgerald's ability to produce at 31 for 2014 and 32 for 2015 (wherever he ends up) should not be hampered by age. He's got the pedigree of most of these guys in terms of size/speed/hands/1st round talent. Arian's system should function better in year 2 with an improved o-line. Arians system doesn't target the TE much (Housler plus blocking Nikolas), doesn't throw to the RB a ton (after Ellington, there's not much else), and Dwyer is the only "goal-line back." That should mean an offense that flows through the WRs Fitz and Floyd with Ellington mixing in 15-20 touches a game.

More concerning to me is the target split between Fitz and Floyd. Last year it was 135/111 in Fitz's favor, and ideally it continues to favor Fitz but I don't think anyone would be surprised if Floyd jump up to the 135+ range while Fitz dropped back to the 125 or under range. Fitz certainly won't see the 195 targets of Wayne or the 180s of AJ or even 160 of Marshall. He should at least get the 125 to 135 numbers of Moss, however.

Turning to YPR, 12.8 is a good starting point based on the average pointed to by JWB. Wayne was at 13.2 with Arians, and Fitz has a career average of 13.4. WIth Floyd and Ginn going deep, I don't see any reason to go above 13.The TD number could still be high because Fitz has been a great redzone WR his whole career, they don't have a great goal line RB or TE.

Putting it together, it looks like 125-145 targets at a 60% catch rate = 75 to 87 receptions, 975 to 1,130 yards, and 8 to 12 TDs, or 220-272 points in PPR - last year that works out to the WR 12-20 range (WR15-25 based on PPG, assuming 16 games).

So, no, I don't see Fitz having another top 10 season without the huge number of targets that guys like Wayne/AJ/Marshall have seen recently, but he should have a clear WR2 caliber season in 2014, with a greater degree of uncertainty in 2015.

Talent is there. Health and QB not so much. I wouldnt trust him.