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Terrell Davis, HOF Candidate (1 Viewer)

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Over at P-F-R, we've been profiling the 25 semifinalists for induction.

John Randle

Roger Craig

Russ Grimm

Steve Tasker

Aeneas Williams

Art Modell

TD has been a lightning rod for discussion, so I thought I'd link to that post here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5113

This past summer I set out to determine which running backs were the most statistically dominant in NFL history. Terrell Davis ranked as the 13th most dominant RB in regular season history, and when combined his superior post-season stats, the 8th most dominant RB overall. The other nine RBs in the top ten all are in the Hall of Fame or will be five years after they retire. Davis is a semifinalist for the fourth straight season since first becoming eligible, but he has never advanced past this stage. Davis is perhaps the most interesting player to analyze in this year's class. There are no QBs eligible for induction, and quarterbacks are the only players for whom more individual statistics are recorded than running backs. There's only one other eligible RB and he's a slam dunk. Davis has the rings and the hardware, typically all you need at the glamour positions to make the Hall. Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith are the only other running backs with both an MVP from the Associated Press and a Super Bowl MVP. Yet, most NFL fans don't think Davis should be inducted. Why?

The common answer is that Davis' career was too short. Four great seasons does not a Hall of Famer make, or something like that. But consider the heights Davis reached: I ranked his 1998 season as the single greatest season any running back has ever had; he broke his own single-season record for most rushing yards gained in a regular and postseason combined. He already had the record because his 1997 season also ranks among the best five ever by a RB; he's the only player to ever rush for 2300 yards (including playoffs) in a season, and he's done it twice. Davis didn't have four great seasons and nothing else; he had two of the greatest seasons in NFL history, another excellent season, a very good year and another solid season. It's not the greatest Hall of Fame profile I've ever seen, but it seems as though Davis is held to a higher standard than other running backs.

From 1996 to 1998, Davis ranked in the top three in rushing yards and rushing TDs every year; that gives him six top-three finishes in those categories for his career. Marcus Allen and Tony Dorsett? Five each. Franco Harris? Four. John Riggins? Three. Larry Csonka? Two. Those last three -- Harris, Riggins and Csonka -- all won Super Bowl MVPs, and I've got no doubt that they don't all end up in Canton without those performances. But if carrying teams to titles got those guys into the HOF, why won't it work for Davis?

Probably because those guys also strung together a bunch of mediocre seasons. When Csonka retired, he ranked 6th in career rushing yards and 7th in career rushing touchdowns, and everyone in the top ten in rushing through that season wound up in the Hall of Fame. When Harris retired, he was third in both rushing yards and rushing scores. When Riggo hung 'em up, he was 4th in career rushing yards and trailed only Jim Brown in rushing touchdowns. TD? He retired as just the 30th leading rusher in NFL history, and was only 28th in rushing touchdowns.

But Davis was so dominant during his prime that he accomplished more in four seasons than most runners do in their whole careers. Occasionally, P-F-R writers calculate a stat called "yards over 1,000 rush yards" to measure RB dominance; all seasons with fewer than 1,000 rushing yards are eliminated, and the first 1,000 yards of every other season are subtracted from the total. So a 1200 yard season is worth half as much as a 1400-yard season. In this metric, Davis ranks 14th all-time, and ahead of such compilers as Jerome Bettis, Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Fred Taylor and Eddie George.

Davis is also one of just 11 running backs with three 1500+ rushing yards seasons. He won two AP offensive player of the year awards, in addition to his one MVP and one SB MVP. Consider the list of other players with multiple AP OPOY awards: Marshall Faulk (3), Earl Campbell (3), Barry Sanders and Jerry Rice. If not for Sanders' 2,000 yard season in '97, Davis almost certainly would have finished his career with three AP OPOY awards.

Davis' statistical dominance is beyond reproach. That leaves just two questions. One of them concerns his longevity, or lack thereof. The common comparison cited for Davis is Gale Sayers, who also had a brilliant career at the same position cut short by knee injuries. Sayers had a fantastic record as a returner to add to his record, although Davis has the incredible post-season to add to his; still, comparing anyone to Sayers is a tough case to make because of the Kansas Comet's uniquely brilliant style of play. I think Canton houses another, better comparison for Davis backers: Earl Campbell.

Like Davis, Campbell was a workhorse, move-the-chains type of back who had a short but fantastic career. Let's compare the two player's careers through four seasons
The tables there are tough to format here, but the rest is available at link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5113
 
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Good read, Thanks Chase! The selfish Bronco fan in me would love to see Davis in the HoF! I know this has been debated a lot on these forums, and I am glad to see the argument for Terrell. I have an obviously biased view, but i think he should be in, but I do understand the arguments against. I will be cautiously optimistic for Terrell's sake.

 
should Priest Holmes also be in the Hall of Fame?

i haven't done research comparing them but I would think that they have similar stats. on the looks of it I'm not sure if Priest belongs.

 
I believe at least some minimum degree of longevity needs to exist for HoF consideration. Davis' 3 great seasons IMO don't qualify. One of those years was truly dominant and a couple were nearly so, but that's just not enough. It's a shame his career was cut short by injury, but that's just how it is.

 
Interesting topic and I'll throw something out there to get conversation started: Is Jamal Lewis a HOFer in your opinion? Lewis had a better overall career in terms of yards, etc. and he also had more rushing yards in a single season than Davis ever had. In fact, the only other 2000 yard rushers in a single season are HOFers. Lewis also was the only offensive weapon worth squat on a Super Bowl winning team.

Basically, Lewis has better length of career (which many RBs that played have compared to Davis and wouldn't sniff the Hall of Very Good), yet Lewis also has a season more prolific than Davis ever did have.

I do not think Lewis is HOF worthy..maybe worth mention, but does not deserve to get in. Hey, I watched Davis play and he was unstoppable until he was stopped permanently, but I personally have a problem with great players with very short careers getting into the HOF, when others may have been a notch below but did it for double the time. Just my opinion, but then what stops a guy from throwing for 58 TDs in his third season, dying in a car crash the next year and getting into the HOF with 87 career passing TDs (to use an example...albiet extreme one)?

 
should Priest Holmes also be in the Hall of Fame?i haven't done research comparing them but I would think that they have similar stats. on the looks of it I'm not sure if Priest belongs.
Holmes is an interesting case. Stats-wise, he's very similar to TD, but he doesn't have the post-season accomplishments. OTOH, that's not his fault, as he was incredible in the only post-season game he played for with the Chiefs. Still, Davis was a huge part of two SB champs, and Holmes doesn't have that to add to his resume.Holmes also played behind that great Chiefs line. I'm not sure which OL was better -- both were awesome run blocking units -- but I suspect history will remember Holmes running behind two HOFers and Davis none (after Zimmerman retired). I'm not saying that's fair or right, but that's just what I think will happen.
 
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Interesting topic and I'll throw something out there to get conversation started: Is Jamal Lewis a HOFer in your opinion? Lewis had a better overall career in terms of yards, etc. and he also had more rushing yards in a single season than Davis ever had. In fact, the only other 2000 yard rushers in a single season are HOFers. Lewis also was the only offensive weapon worth squat on a Super Bowl winning team. Basically, Lewis has better length of career (which many RBs that played have compared to Davis and wouldn't sniff the Hall of Very Good), yet Lewis also has a season more prolific than Davis ever did have.I do not think Lewis is HOF worthy..maybe worth mention, but does not deserve to get in. Hey, I watched Davis play and he was unstoppable until he was stopped permanently, but I personally have a problem with great players with very short careers getting into the HOF, when others may have been a notch below but did it for double the time. Just my opinion, but then what stops a guy from throwing for 58 TDs in his third season, dying in a car crash the next year and getting into the HOF with 87 career passing TDs (to use an example...albiet extreme one)?
I don't think Lewis' 2003 season was on the level of Davis' 1998 season.Rushing-wise, sure. But he had 9 fewer TDs and 6 more fumbles. And in three playoff games, TD had 468 yards averaging 6 YPC with 3 scores; Lewis in 4 games had 338 carries on a 3.28 YPC average and 4 scores.
 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that

 
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Nice article. I agree Davis is likely worthy of induction. However, I don't think you really did anything to argue against the main concern: career length.

 
If Chris Johnson rushes for 1500 yards next year and the Titans win the Super Bowl, and he promptly pulls a Robert Smith and retires, would he be a hall of famer?

I can't imagine many people would say yes to that, but it would give him every bit as much a claim to it.

What if the Vikings win the Super Bowl this year on the legs of a good playoff run by Adrian Peterson, and then he retires at the end of the year. Is he a hall of famer then?

 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that
:) He was the best player on a team that won two Superbowls. I'm more interested in players' top seasons as opposed to a body of work that includes a bunch of stat-padding seasons.
 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that
:) He was the best player on a team that won two Superbowls. I'm more interested in players' top seasons as opposed to a body of work that includes a bunch of stat-padding seasons.
So serious question, if the Vikings win the super bowl this year would you put Adrian Peterson in if he retired right afterwards?And if Larry Fitzgerald retired today, would you put him in?
 
I think the Terrell Davis argument will die down as other RBs become HOF-eligible. This year there are only a few RBs on the list. Next year you'll add Faulk, Bettis and Curtis Martin to the list. Then Tiki Barber and Corey Dillon. Then Priest Holmes. They can't all get in. By 2013 you could end up with half a dozen eligible RBs who would arguably be more deserving of the HOF than Davis.

Then when you add in the fact that Chris Johnson is about to make his 2000-yard season seem less special.......and Davis doesn't stand a chance.

 
Davis DID have one of the elite O lines blocking for him and an HoF Qb as well. He was surrounded by superior talent. That is the one thing that seperates Sayers from him. Sayers did it all on his own, just pure speed and incredible moves that still to this day amazes me. Sanders had great burst and moves, but I've never seen any player like Sayers. That is why he is the "longevity exception", a bit like a Koufax in baseball. Koufax was the most extraordinary pitcher I've ever seen. Like Sayers is the most extraordinary RB I've ever seen.

Having said that, I think Davis should be in. He dominated his era, albeit a very short era.

 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that
;) He was the best player on a team that won two Superbowls. I'm more interested in players' top seasons as opposed to a body of work that includes a bunch of stat-padding seasons.
So serious question, if the Vikings win the super bowl this year would you put Adrian Peterson in if he retired right afterwards?And if Larry Fitzgerald retired today, would you put him in?
No to both. Neither has won an NFL MVP nor had a 2000 yard season and unless the 2 go on to have the same playoff success as TD, it's not even an argument. Peterson hasn't come close to what TD did during his career.
 
Davis is the poster child for why there should be some sort of HoF recognition for short periods of spectacular play. It shouldn't be the regular HoF enshrinement, though. I'm talking 2-3 seasons of great play or even one really special game.

Longevity is a part of the HoF requirements barring something truly tragic. Fair or not, I'd feel more receptive to him getting in if he randomly dropped dead instead of having a knee injury.

 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that
;) He was the best player on a team that won two Superbowls. I'm more interested in players' top seasons as opposed to a body of work that includes a bunch of stat-padding seasons.
So serious question, if the Vikings win the super bowl this year would you put Adrian Peterson in if he retired right afterwards?And if Larry Fitzgerald retired today, would you put him in?
No to both. Neither has won an NFL MVP nor had a 2000 yard season and unless the 2 go on to have the same playoff success as TD, it's not even an argument. Peterson hasn't come close to what TD did during his career.
Didn't Larry Fitzgerald have statistically the best playoff run of all-time for a WR last year?Would your opinion change on him if Arizona's defense had held Pittsburgh out of the endzone at the end of the game in last year's Super Bowl and Fitz did have a ring (with a super bowl winning TD grab to go along with it)? If so, do you not find it odd to base a player's hall of fame worthiness on something that happened while he was on the sidelines?
 
He should get in. His post season success pushes him over the top, with 2 rings and a super bowl mvp. Elway would be ringless without him. Dude was great but was robbed by injury, it's not like he just started to suck. So according to some people's standards Davis would have a much better shot getting in if he had been healthy and mediocre for the rest of his career because it would pad his career yardage totals. I don't agree with that
:goodposting: He was the best player on a team that won two Superbowls. I'm more interested in players' top seasons as opposed to a body of work that includes a bunch of stat-padding seasons.
So serious question, if the Vikings win the super bowl this year would you put Adrian Peterson in if he retired right afterwards?And if Larry Fitzgerald retired today, would you put him in?
No to both. Neither has won an NFL MVP nor had a 2000 yard season and unless the 2 go on to have the same playoff success as TD, it's not even an argument. Peterson hasn't come close to what TD did during his career.
Didn't Larry Fitzgerald have statistically the best playoff run of all-time for a WR last year?Would your opinion change on him if Arizona's defense had held Pittsburgh out of the endzone at the end of the game in last year's Super Bowl and Fitz did have a ring (with a super bowl winning TD grab to go along with it)? If so, do you not find it odd to base a player's hall of fame worthiness on something that happened while he was on the sidelines?
What Fitz is missing is the regular season dominance, though. TD dominated regular and post season for a few years. If Fitz had the WR equivalent to TD's 2k season and had amassed the regular season AND postseason accolades TD had, then yeah, I think he'd have an argument. Winning or losing that Super Bowl last year doesn't make a difference in this argument imo.
 
If Chris Johnson rushes for 1500 yards next year and the Titans win the Super Bowl, and he promptly pulls a Robert Smith and retires, would he be a hall of famer?I can't imagine many people would say yes to that, but it would give him every bit as much a claim to it.What if the Vikings win the Super Bowl this year on the legs of a good playoff run by Adrian Peterson, and then he retires at the end of the year. Is he a hall of famer then?
Davis had four seasons of 1100+ rushing yards. I'm not sure why people are saying he just had three good years.Davis also won two Super Bowls, not one.
 
Davis is the poster child for why there should be some sort of HoF recognition for short periods of spectacular play. It shouldn't be the regular HoF enshrinement, though. I'm talking 2-3 seasons of great play or even one really special game. Longevity is a part of the HoF requirements barring something truly tragic. Fair or not, I'd feel more receptive to him getting in if he randomly dropped dead instead of having a knee injury.
Why not the regular enshrinement? 2-3 seasons of great play is about what your average HOF player has.
 
I will have to look it up or maybe Chase can post it, but TD missed a lot of time (over a game's worth IIRC) during his 2k yard season due to being pulled because the game was a blow out. This makes his 2k yard season even more impressive imo.

 
Davis is one of five players with 2,000 yards in a season: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/svGVY

Davis is one of five players with two 1,700 yards seasons: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/BKsnF

Davis is one of eleven players with three 1,500 yards seasons: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/SsYEY

Davis is one of thirty players with four 1,100 yards seasons: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/gke5Z

Through 14 games in 2009.

 
Davis is the poster child for why there should be some sort of HoF recognition for short periods of spectacular play. It shouldn't be the regular HoF enshrinement, though. I'm talking 2-3 seasons of great play or even one really special game. Longevity is a part of the HoF requirements barring something truly tragic. Fair or not, I'd feel more receptive to him getting in if he randomly dropped dead instead of having a knee injury.
Why not the regular enshrinement? 2-3 seasons of great play is about what your average HOF player has.
That's not all the average HoF player has, though. Durability is an attribute that should only be increased in value in this type of discussion in a brutal game like that of professional football. I think there's more of an argument for a baseball player who has an injury that takes him out after a few brilliant seasons than for one in football.
 
Forgive the hijack, but to me the Hall of Fame is for the Best of the Best. While I am blown away by this class (save Art Modell), there are only two who qualify under that criterion. Seriously, I love 'em all, but do any compare to Emmitt and Rice?

Best of the Best, or maybe open a special section with that name.

 
Holmes won a SB....although he obviously wasn't the workhorse back for the Ravens....although I forgot he had a 1000 yard rushing season with them.

 
Davis is the poster child for why there should be some sort of HoF recognition for short periods of spectacular play. It shouldn't be the regular HoF enshrinement, though. I'm talking 2-3 seasons of great play or even one really special game. Longevity is a part of the HoF requirements barring something truly tragic. Fair or not, I'd feel more receptive to him getting in if he randomly dropped dead instead of having a knee injury.
Why not the regular enshrinement? 2-3 seasons of great play is about what your average HOF player has.
That's not all the average HoF player has, though. Durability is an attribute that should only be increased in value in this type of discussion in a brutal game like that of professional football. I think there's more of an argument for a baseball player who has an injury that takes him out after a few brilliant seasons than for one in football.
Agreed. Being durable isn't enough, though. Being durable and productive is the key.What do you think about Earl Campbell?
 
Thanks Chase.....well sort of because every time I think of TD's career getting cut short it reminds me why I hate Brian Griese.

Where does he rank in Yards from scrimmage when you add in his receiving .. he was pretty productive there as well especially in his rookie year.

I'd like to see him make it.

 
Agreed. Being durable isn't enough, though. Being durable and productive is the key.What do you think about Earl Campbell?
I'm not sure I'm wild about him being there, but five 1300+ yard seasons looks to me more like a player with some argument for the Hall than one with three 1500+ yard seasons and an 1100 yard one. I do subscribe reluctantly to the premise that we can't let past admission become precedent -- if they made a mistake in letting Campbell in like they did with Swann, that doesn't mean the mistake should be compounded by letting everybody who surpasses Campbell in.
 
As great as TD was I think the fact that he played on a great team also goes against him. The Broncos of that era were a legitimate threat to make the Bowl in any given year. As mentioned earlier, Sayers played on a team that really had nothing on offense but him. Also, IIRC, I think that he is the only RB to gain 1000 yards for a 1 win team.

I have no doubt that TD was a great talent but I just don't think that he was one of the best ever. You can actually argue that he wasn't even the best of his era. There is no doubt that Barry played on an inferior team yet he was also able to gain 2000 yards in a season.

 
it's my belief that TD's SB MVP and NFL MVP can make up for the lack of longevity. It's a very small list of people who have both - the only ones currently not in the HOF are Kurt Warner, TD, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, and Emmitt Smith.

Further, some argue that if TD had one more great season, he's be there. Well, if you consider his post season, he has 204 rushes for 1140 yards (5.59 YPC) and 12 TD's against the best teams in the league, that should push him over the top.

So, my argument boils down to TD should be in the HOF on the basis that his hardware and his post season excellence more than make up for his brief, spectacular career.

 
I think what really hurts the argument minimizing longevity that longevity is the one thing that ties every NFL player together. Time is the ruler we can use to measure something about everybody who puts on the jersey. Indeed, that longevity is of vital importance in determining the worth of players in some positions. It's one of the few stats that have been kept in at least most eras if not all.

If TD were as excellent a guard as he was a RB, should he be in the HoF? Safety? Punter?

 
Davis is the poster child for why there should be some sort of HoF recognition for short periods of spectacular play. It shouldn't be the regular HoF enshrinement, though. I'm talking 2-3 seasons of great play or even one really special game.

Longevity is a part of the HoF requirements barring something truly tragic. Fair or not, I'd feel more receptive to him getting in if he randomly dropped dead instead of having a knee injury.
Why not the regular enshrinement? 2-3 seasons of great play is about what your average HOF player has.
I believe I was debating with you, Chase, a few months back about another HOF candidate and you mentioned that your rule of thumb was that the player should be better than half of the players already enshrined. It seemed silly to me at first since it would mean the standards were constantly increasing - but the more I thought about it, the more I like it. It would insure that players weren't compared to the worst HOFer, or a single HOFer, but held up against the entire group and then you would determine if they belong. I get sick of the argument that TD should get in because Sayers is in, and he only had 2-3 great seasons. Then people would follow up that Priest should be in for the same reason. Then Jamal Lewis, why not, he ran for 2000 yards. Each time you lose site of why the previous guy was selected.

So Chase, show me 12 HOF running backs from the modern era that TD is better than, and you'll convince me.

 
Fair point Gonzobill5. Let me state that I think statistically Davis belongs in the HOF. His longevity argument doesn't bother me. I think the ZBS/Shanahan/Gibbs/Portis-Anderson-Gary questions are much more damaging, and I'm not sure where I stand on the line. Many HOFers play with great teammates and in good systems, but we can't just ignore that TD was in a great system. Here are the 25 modern era HOF RBs:

1styr Lstyr Name1988 2000 Thurman Thomas1989 1998 Barry Sanders1982 1997 Marcus Allen1983 1993 Eric Dickerson1977 1988 Tony Dorsett1978 1985 Earl Campbell1975 1987 Walter Payton1971 1985 John Riggins1972 1984 Franco Harris1969 1979 O.J. Simpson1968 1979 Larry Csonka1964 1973 Leroy Kelly1965 1971 Gale Sayers1958 1967 Jim Taylor1957 1966 Paul Hornung1956 1967 Lenny Moore1957 1965 Jim Brown1954 1966 John Henry Johnson1952 1966 Ollie Matson1952 1964 Frank Gifford1952 1964 Hugh McElhenny1948 1963 Joe Perry1950 1955 Doak Walker1947 1955 Charlie Trippi1946 1955 Marion MotleyIt's really tough to compare Davis to some of the older guys. Was Davis more deserving than Paul Hornung? Absolutely, in my mind. But he's part of the "older" crew in my mind. I'd probably draw the line starting with Sayers, although he's so unique that maybe we should just draw it at Kelly. That leaves 12 guys.Obviously Sanders, Payton and Dickerson were better. Csonka is the least deserving member of that bunch in my view, and by a solid margin. He may have been a better RB than several of the other RBs on the list, but he wasn't used often enough. He never once ranked in the top 7 in the league in carries. He played with some other very good RBs, and he probably could have had better stats on a different team. But what happened is what happened, and IMO, he's the least productive RB of the 12.

Of the other 8, I'd probably break their HOF profile down into four groups:

Tier A: The Bills RBs

Tier B: Earl Campbell

Tier C: Marcus Allen

Tier D: Kelly, Harris, Dorsett, Riggins

So TD would need to fall in between Allen and Campbell, at a minimum, to warrant induction under this standard. Statistically, I think he's there. Was he as talented as Marcus Allen? Probably not. Was he more productive? Overall, I think so. But was he more productive because he played in Denver? Maybe.

 
In his day John Brockington did things no other back had ever done. He was the first back ever to have his first three seasons exceed 1000 yards, and back then, with 14 games, that meant more than it does today. Compared to tailbacks or halfbacks he was great. When compared to fullbacks, which he was, it is even more impressive. Had he stayed healthy he may well have gotten in to the HOF. He was every bit the equal or the superior of Csonka and Harris, just on a very pedestrian team.

There is no shame in not making the HOF. It is not an insult. It happens. BTW, I don't think it is as if Davis has no presence there. To my recollection some of his memorabilia made it for individual games and seasons. His accomplishments are noted.

 
So many ways to look at this. Would you rather have Riggins, Franco or TD? TD. Compared to Bettis? No question - TD. But of the 3 RBs with the best first 4 seasons, admittedly a very select group, would you rather have TD, ED or Campbell? For me TD is 3rd there. He only had 4 full seasons, and while his post-seasons were amazing, we don't consider Andre Reed's post season stats when comparing WRs?

I think TD is not only hurt by his lack of longevity but the fact Olandis Gary ran for over 1100 yards in 1999, and Mike Anderson for 1500 and 15 TDs in 2000. This where everybody, especially fantasy players, started seeing the Denver RB position as plug n play.

 
The remainder of this post is designed simply to present information. It does not reflect my ideal way of presenting it.

I figured we might as well do a quick snapshot of the 12 most modern HOF RBs and Davis. I didn't really know how to sort the data, though, so I had to come up with a stupid formula.

Seas PrBw 1AP 2AP OPOY MVP SBMVP SBs Score Players 10 10 6 4 2 2 0 0 32.8 Barry Sanders13 9 5 3 1 2 0 1 28.8 Walter Payton8 5 3 0 3 3 0 0 24.4 Earl Campbell11 6 5 0 1 1 0 0 20.2 O.J. Simpson13 9 1 2 0 1 1 4 19.1 Franco Harris13 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 18.6 Marcus Allen10 5 2 3 1 1 0 0 17.6 Thurman Thomas10 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 17.3 Eric Dickerson5 3 3 0 2 1 1 2 16.4 Terrell Davis8 6 3 0 0 1 0 0 14.2 Leroy Kelly11 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 12.9 Larry Csonka12 4 1 2 0 0 0 1 10.8 Tony Dorsett14 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 10.7 John RigginsNotes: Some Pro Bowls/All-Pros may have been earned as a returner, not as a RB.

I'm doing the SBs off of memory; everything else I've got the data easily stored.

The MVP and OPOY haven't been around forever, so someone like Kelly is disadvantaged here. I think the OPOY started in '70 or '72.

For All-Pros, I'm only using the Associated Press, but for MVP, I'm using any of the major sources. If a guy wins the AP MVP in one year and the NEA MVP in another, that's two. If he gets the AP MVP and NEA MVP in the same year and nothing else, that goes down as a 1.

What the heck is that stupid score category? It's seasons starting divided by 3, plus 0.75* Pro Bowls, plus 1.5* first-team All-Pros, plus 1*second-team All-Pros, plus 2 times OPOY awards, plus 2.5 times MVPs, plus 0.25* Super Bowls.

This isn't the main thing I would use to rank RBs -- I'd like at the usual things like rushing yards -- but I thought it's worth bringing into the conversation. Davis' 5 seasons as a starter would be te lowest, but his 3 first-team APs look good, as do his OPOYs, MVPs, SBMVP and SBs.

 
So many ways to look at this. Would you rather have Riggins, Franco or TD? TD. Compared to Bettis? No question - TD. But of the 3 RBs with the best first 4 seasons, admittedly a very select group, would you rather have TD, ED or Campbell? For me TD is 3rd there. He only had 4 full seasons, and while his post-seasons were amazing, we don't consider Andre Reed's post season stats when comparing WRs?I think TD is not only hurt by his lack of longevity but the fact Olandis Gary ran for over 1100 yards in 1999, and Mike Anderson for 1500 and 15 TDs in 2000. This where everybody, especially fantasy players, started seeing the Denver RB position as plug n play.
We definitely consider post season stats when comparing intraposition. There's a reason Aikman and Bradshaw are in the HOF, and I think that applies to Allen, Riggins, Harris and Csonka, too.
 
12 times since 1992 has an RB led the league with over 1700 yards. (including this year and not counting 2004 when Curtis Martin had 1697 yards.

There has only been two years since 1991 in which an RB has not scored at least 15 TD's.

TD had a monster 1998 but he really didn't break any trends outside of that. TD was a great RB in an era of big stats. He had a good career but Thurman, Emmitt, Barry, and Dickerson did it for longer. Hell, even Curtis Martin had 4 years with at least 1400 yards but I don't hear loud cries about his greatness.

TD will be a player that I think does not get in and will be forever debated about. Much like Shoeless Joe but for far different reasons.

 
The remainder of this post is designed simply to present information. It does not reflect my ideal way of presenting it.

I figured we might as well do a quick snapshot of the 12 most modern HOF RBs and Davis. I didn't really know how to sort the data, though, so I had to come up with a stupid formula.

Seas PrBw 1AP 2AP OPOY MVP SBMVP SBs Score Players 10 10 6 4 2 2 0 0 32.8 Barry Sanders13 9 5 3 1 2 0 1 28.8 Walter Payton8 5 3 0 3 3 0 0 24.4 Earl Campbell11 6 5 0 1 1 0 0 20.2 O.J. Simpson13 9 1 2 0 1 1 4 19.1 Franco Harris13 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 18.6 Marcus Allen10 5 2 3 1 1 0 0 17.6 Thurman Thomas10 6 5 0 1 0 0 0 17.3 Eric Dickerson5 3 3 0 2 1 1 2 16.4 Terrell Davis8 6 3 0 0 1 0 0 14.2 Leroy Kelly11 5 2 1 0 0 1 2 12.9 Larry Csonka12 4 1 2 0 0 0 1 10.8 Tony Dorsett14 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 10.7 John RigginsNotes: Some Pro Bowls/All-Pros may have been earned as a returner, not as a RB.

I'm doing the SBs off of memory; everything else I've got the data easily stored.

The MVP and OPOY haven't been around forever, so someone like Kelly is disadvantaged here. I think the OPOY started in '70 or '72.

For All-Pros, I'm only using the Associated Press, but for MVP, I'm using any of the major sources. If a guy wins the AP MVP in one year and the NEA MVP in another, that's two. If he gets the AP MVP and NEA MVP in the same year and nothing else, that goes down as a 1.

What the heck is that stupid score category? It's seasons starting divided by 3, plus 0.75* Pro Bowls, plus 1.5* first-team All-Pros, plus 1*second-team All-Pros, plus 2 times OPOY awards, plus 2.5 times MVPs, plus 0.25* Super Bowls.

This isn't the main thing I would use to rank RBs -- I'd like at the usual things like rushing yards -- but I thought it's worth bringing into the conversation. Davis' 5 seasons as a starter would be te lowest, but his 3 first-team APs look good, as do his OPOYs, MVPs, SBMVP and SBs.
It seems like the argument against TD is that he had enough great years to be in the HOF, he just didn't have enough mediocre years. Instead of comparing TD to Sayers people should compare him to OJ. (just as a RB not as a human being) OJ had 6 mediocre seasons, 1 very good year and 4 great years. TD has 3 great years and 1 good year plus great playoff performance. IMO OJ's peak was better but not vastly better. Davis belongs in the HOF ahead of guys like Martin and Bettis.

 
12 times since 1992 has an RB led the league with over 1700 yards. (including this year and not counting 2004 when Curtis Martin had 1697 yards.There has only been two years since 1991 in which an RB has not scored at least 15 TD's.TD had a monster 1998 but he really didn't break any trends outside of that.
How many RBs went over 1,700 rushing yards AND scored at least 15 touchdowns in the same season? Terrell Davis did it twice.
 
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12 times since 1992 has an RB led the league with over 1700 yards. (including this year and not counting 2004 when Curtis Martin had 1697 yards.

There has only been two years since 1991 in which an RB has not scored at least 15 TD's.

TD had a monster 1998 but he really didn't break any trends outside of that.
How many RBs went over 1,700 rushing yards AND scored at least 15 touchdowns in the same season? Terrell Davis did it twice.
33 times a RB averaged over 105 rushing yards per game and scored 14+ TDs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/ozVzkEight players, including TD, have done it twice. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/HNt8E

 
I get sick of the argument that TD should get in because Sayers is in, and he only had 2-3 great seasons.
Agreed. Old post on this:
I think Davis has just as strong a case as Sayers did
I must disagree.From Pro Football Hall of Fame:

Gale Eugene Sayers. . .Kansas All-America. . .Exceptional break-away runner. . .Scored rookie record 22 TDs, 132 points, 1965. . .Led NFL rushers, 1966, 1969. . .Named all-time NFL halfback, 1969. . . All-NFL five straight years. . .Player of Game in three Pro Bowls. . .Career totals: 9,435 combined net yards, 4,956 yards rushing, 336 points. . . NFL lifetime kickoff return leader. . .Born May 30, 1943, in Wichita, Kansas.

Gale Sayers burst upon the pro football scene in 1965 with the kind of an impact that the sport had not felt in many years. It is difficult to imagine a more dynamic debut than the one he enjoyed as a rookie. In his first heavy pre-season action, he raced 77 yards on a punt return, 93 yards on a kickoff return, and then startled everyone with a 25-yard scoring pass against the Los Angeles Rams.

In regular season, he scored four touchdowns, including a 96-yard game breaking kickoff return, against the Minnesota Vikings. And, in the next-to-last game, playing on a muddy field that would have stalled most runners, Gale scored a record-tying six touchdowns against the San Francisco 49ers. Included in his sensational spree were an 80-yard pass-run play, a 50-yard rush and a 65-yard punt return. For the entire season, Gale scored 22 touchdowns and 132 points, both then-rookie records.

Quiet, unassuming, and always ready to compliment a teammate for a key block, Sayers continued to sizzle in 1967 and well into the 1968 season. Then, in the ninth game, Sayers suffered a knee injury that required immediate surgery.

After a tortuous rehabilitation program, Gale came back in 1969 in a most spectacular manner, winding up with his second 1,000-yard rushing season and universal Comeback of the Year honors. But injuries continued to take their toll and, just before the 1972 season, Gale finally had to call it quits.

In his relatively short career, he compiled a record that can never be forgotten. His totals show 9,435 combined net yards, 4,956 yards rushing, and 336 points scored. At the time of his retirement he was the NFL's all-time leader in kickoff returns. He won All-NFL honors five straight years and was named Offensive Player of the Game in three of the four Pro Bowls in which he played.
Though not clearly stated above, Sayers was ROY in 1965.Sayers was Michael Vick electric. His career averages:

- 5.0 yards per rush (Davis 4.6)

- 11.7 yards per catch (Davis 7.6)

- 14.5 yards per punt return

- 30.6 yards per kickoff return

- 27.8 yards per completion (but only 6.2 yards per attempt)

Sayers had tremendous impact on special teams, as well as in both the running and passing games on offense. Davis didn't have quite the same overall impact. And, frankly, from the averages shown above, Sayers appears to have been more talented, though I realize it is difficult to compare across eras, offenses, etc.

Sayers played only 2 games in each of his last 2 seasons, unable to overcome injury. So he effectively played only 5 seasons, and he was named All Pro each time. In contrast, Davis played 3 great seasons, 1996-1998. He was All Pro in each of those seasons. But as a rookie, while very impressive for a first year RB, he was not one of the top backs in the NFL. IMO, as great as he was in the next 3 seasons, 3 great seasons makes less of a case than 5 great seasons.

Also, Sayers career was truly done after his 5 year run, as he was able to play only a total of 4 more games over the next 2 seasons. Davis may have actually hurt his case by lingering longer, playing a total of 20 more games over 3 additional seasons after his injury.

I'm not really sure what to think of Sayers being named "All Time NFL halfback" in 1969, but it sounds like an honor that transcends single season awards. I don't recall Davis ever receiving such an award.

And IMO it also does not help Davis's case that Gary, Anderson, Portis, and Droughns have looked so great in the same offense. It certainly raises at least the possibility that Davis's numbers were at least aided by an amazing offensive line/system. In particular, it hurts that Gary went on to play poorly elsewhere, and Portis, while not playing poorly, did not play at the same elite level when he moved on.

I feel that Sayers deserves to be in and Davis does not. And I expect the voters will ultimately agree on Davis.
Davis clearly benefitted from playing in one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history. He also played with one of the few best QBs in NFL history. And a HOF TE.One player other than Sayers made the Pro Bowl during the 5 seasons he was healthy: Mike Ditka, once. And consider that there were only 16 teams in the league then, so it was easier to make it. Even Ditka only had one good season during Sayers' career. And there was no one else on the offense to give him much help.

There is no doubt that Sayers was more HOF worthy than Davis. None.
 
12 times since 1992 has an RB led the league with over 1700 yards. (including this year and not counting 2004 when Curtis Martin had 1697 yards.There has only been two years since 1991 in which an RB has not scored at least 15 TD's.TD had a monster 1998 but he really didn't break any trends outside of that.
How many RBs went over 1,700 rushing yards AND scored at least 15 touchdowns in the same season? Terrell Davis did it twice.
I give you the fact that TD has some impressive stats. Barry Sanders never had 1700/15. Eric Dickerson had 1 season of 1700/15. Walter Payton never had 1700/15. Earl Campbell never had 1700/15. Jim Brown never had 1700/15. OJ had 1 season of 1700/15. Marshall Faulk never had 1700/15. Thurman never had 1700/15. And finally, Emmitt had TWO years out of four in which he had 1700/15. What does this mean? It means that we can manipulate these stats all night to try and make a convincing argument. My own personal feeling is that TD falls short. Earl Campbell made it because he won three rushing titles his first three years(two more than Davis). I just do not think that the Hall is going to award a 4 year career as being worthy. As far as longevity, Jim Marshall is not in and he played 270 straight games at DE.
 
12 times since 1992 has an RB led the league with over 1700 yards. (including this year and not counting 2004 when Curtis Martin had 1697 yards.

There has only been two years since 1991 in which an RB has not scored at least 15 TD's.

TD had a monster 1998 but he really didn't break any trends outside of that.
How many RBs went over 1,700 rushing yards AND scored at least 15 touchdowns in the same season? Terrell Davis did it twice.
33 times a RB averaged over 105 rushing yards per game and scored 14+ TDs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/ozVzkEight players, including TD, have done it twice. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny/HNt8E
Okay, but how about 1,700 yards in a season and at least 15 TDs, which was the benchmark we were discussing?
I give you the fact that TD has some impressive stats. Barry Sanders never had 1700/15. Eric Dickerson had 1 season of 1700/15. Walter Payton never had 1700/15. Earl Campbell never had 1700/15. Jim Brown never had 1700/15. OJ had 1 season of 1700/15. Marshall Faulk never had 1700/15. Thurman never had 1700/15. And finally, Emmitt had TWO years out of four in which he had 1700/15.

What does this mean? It means that we can manipulate these stats all night to try and make a convincing argument. My own personal feeling is that TD falls short. Earl Campbell made it because he won three rushing titles his first three years(two more than Davis). I just do not think that the Hall is going to award a 4 year career as being worthy. As far as longevity, Jim Marshall is not in and he played 270 straight games at DE.
I also don't think they will, but he played for seven seasons, not four.
 

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