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Denard 'Shoelace' Robinson and his Chris Johnson potential (1 Viewer)

MAC_32

Footballguy
Jacksonville did what I think all NFL teams needed to do in regards to evaluating Denard Robinson. They saw him as a RB, not a WR, and drafted accordingly. He has the long speed, acceleration, agility, and vision of a feature RB. The operative question is whether he can handle the load. Often nicked up in college he will need to learn to not take so many vicious hits if he is going to last in the NFL, but he has all the traits one would want in a RB. At his going rate in early rookie drafts, buy now before the hype catches up. I'm comfortable drafting him as early as immediately after Lattimore and Michael fall off the board (late round 1/early round 2) but in most drafts you can wait until later round 2 or even round 3 before taking the plunge.

This could be Jacksonville's feature back come 2014, and unlike most day 3 RB's he has the ability to be a top RB if he is able to handle something at least closer to a full load.

 
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I have seen Denard in person at a Michigan BB game. They had a meet and greet with some football players. Denard is almost on the tiny side in street clothes. I would say 5-11 180-185 Denard does not have a thick frame at all. I love his speed but really do not see him ever being a feature RB due to his stature.

 
I have seen Denard in person at a Michigan BB game. They had a meet and greet with some football players. Denard is almost on the tiny side in street clothes. I would say 5-11 180-185 Denard does not have a thick frame at all. I love his speed but really do not see him ever being a feature RB due to his stature.
I believe he weighed in at or near 200 during the pre draft process.

I don't make nearly as big of a deal as many around here when it comes to specific body types, weights, speed metrics, etc. I'll note outliers, but as long as they're in the range of 'ideal' I don't note a problem. 180-85 would be a problem, 200 is not.

 
They're talking about Robinson in a "slash" role, moving him all around.

It's possible he could be a fantasy relevant player like that, even a very good one, but I'm not buying him as a #1 tailback.

 
They're talking about Robinson in a "slash" role, moving him all around.

It's possible he could be a fantasy relevant player like that, even a very good one, but I'm not buying him as a #1 tailback.
This year? Yes, that's his role.

Beyond this year? We'll see how it goes this year. I think he has the skills and ability to do it though. All a matter of can he do it over 200+ touches. He won't get 200 touches this year, but 150? Sure, maybe. If he maintains effectiveness through those 150 or so touches....opportunity's there for the long term as the Jags have no one else in the cupboard behind an aging MJD.

 
Snagged him in the 3rd in every rookie draft that started right after the NFL draft. The ones that started this week or late last week, he's been going mid to late 2nd.

At that point, he's an easy pick to make IMO. I'd much rather gamble on an athlete of his caliber than just "some guy" who happened to land in a situation that is considered favorable. Now that it's come out that he's going to be a running back, he might be going early to mid 2nd in rookie drafts that wait until the summer.

Value definitely on the rise.

 
200 total touches in a committee I could see, but 250+ carries like Chris Johnson takes every year is unlikely IMO.

I'm not hating on the guy. I drafted him in a start-up about an hour ago.

 
He went undrafted after a three round rookie draft in my competitive league so I picked him up off FCFS a few days ago.

I don't think he'll be very relevant. Maybe a few touches a game this year, and depending on how well he learns to run routes, perhaps a few more next year. It's very hard to catch up playing a completely different position and to be a top, consistent WR a lot of it is muscle memory. He's got a long way to go and a lot of work to do. I see him as more of a slot receiver than a running back but I'm sure he'll be in a slash mode this first year to figure out what he can do. With his speed, if he can pick up the nuances of playing slot, he's going to be a beast. You can't teach a 4.3 40-time. Honestly I think he's more of a 2/3-year project which is probably why he dropped in the draft.

 
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100 touches or under, IMO
I would agree with this for 2013, especially if MJD is 100%. But I do agree that Robinson's elite measurables coupled with the ability he flashed as a rusher in college leave significant upside relative to where he's being selected in rookie drafts.

 
Will he be used in the return game?
doubt it, not understanding why they would pigeon hole him into the slot either. How many times has that worked with a denard type before? It's why I wasn't high on him... Until Jacksonville drafted him to play rb. They have clearly watched the tape and seen what he can do out of the backfield. Not trying to force him into a position, using the players abilities and adapting.
 
From Rotoworld...

Speaking in a Tuesday radio interview, GM David Caldwell said the Jaguars hope to get fifth-round pick Denard Robinson 10-15 touches per game as a rookie.

It's a huge number — likely an unrealistic one — but proof of how high the Jags are on the former quarterback's playmaking ability. The vast majority of Robinson's touches should come as a change-of-pace running back, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him run a few routes as a receiver. It sounds like Robinson will beat out veteran Justin Forsett to be Maurice Jones-Drew's primary backup if all goes to plan for the Jags. Robinson is an intriguing Dynasty-league prospect.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter May 7 - 8:47 PM

 
Targeting him in every draft, even before today's 10-15 touches news. Once people see this guy rip off a couple long runs in the preseason he'll be on everyone's radar where he belongs.

The guy is a fast/shifty runner who ran for a gazillion miles in college, can play QB, and will likely be backing up a vet in a contract year coming off an injury. Plus, the team that drafted him is psyched up about him and can't stop talking about him - and it's still April!

What's not to love about Denard? Anyone down on him is over thinking things way too much imo. The cost-benefit ratio is strongly in his favor. Well worth the investment.

 
Chris Johnson comparison is off, I consider him a poor man's Reggie Bush. Nowhere near as good in the open field as Bush though.

 
Targeting him in every draft, even before today's 10-15 touches news. Once people see this guy rip off a couple long runs in the preseason he'll be on everyone's radar where he belongs.The guy is a fast/shifty runner who ran for a gazillion miles in college, can play QB, and will likely be backing up a vet in a contract year coming off an injury. Plus, the team that drafted him is psyched up about him and can't stop talking about him - and it's still April!What's not to love about Denard? Anyone down on him is over thinking things way too much imo. The cost-benefit ratio is strongly in his favor. Well worth the investment.
His ability to stay healthy for one. I agree for the current cost it's not a bad investment, but to think this guy is the next Chris Johnson may be stretching the truth a bit.

 
Just got him with my 3.12 pick. I think we see his ADP early 2nd late 1st once training camp hype fires up. Great swing for the fences gamble.

 
His scouting reports and combine results read like Percy Harvin.
nah, Harvin has a special level of strength. Denard is more patient looking for the hole, and accelerates quickly through it, same thing I saw from Johnson before he got paid.
 
From Rotoworld...

Speaking in a Tuesday radio interview, GM David Caldwell said the Jaguars hope to get fifth-round pick Denard Robinson 10-15 touches per game as a rookie.

It's a huge number — likely an unrealistic one — but proof of how high the Jags are on the former quarterback's playmaking ability. The vast majority of Robinson's touches should come as a change-of-pace running back, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him run a few routes as a receiver. It sounds like Robinson will beat out veteran Justin Forsett to be Maurice Jones-Drew's primary backup if all goes to plan for the Jags. Robinson is an intriguing Dynasty-league prospect.

Source: Alex Marvez on Twitter May 7 - 8:47 PM
Update on that... it's snaps, not touches. Slow down the train a bit...

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/tim-tebow-jacksonville-jaguars-david-caldwell-not-interested-050813

Caldwell said he envisions Robinson receiving "10 to 15 snaps" per game as a rusher or receiver. Robinson also is the frontrunner to return kickoffs.
 
True about CJ, but he's also had to work behind a lousy offensive line most of the time. Jacksonville has long had a pretty good, run oriented offense.

I like what I've seen in the college highlights of Denard's running ability. One thing that stood out about him was his tough running style. He knows how to lower his pads and initiate the contact, which you don't generally see with running QBs.

 
doowain said:
Snagged him in the 3rd in every rookie draft that started right after the NFL draft. The ones that started this week or late last week, he's been going mid to late 2nd. At that point, he's an easy pick to make IMO. I'd much rather gamble on an athlete of his caliber than just "some guy" who happened to land in a situation that is considered favorable. Now that it's come out that he's going to be a running back, he might be going early to mid 2nd in rookie drafts that wait until the summer. Value definitely on the rise.
4.09 39. Use The Force Robinson, Denard JAC WR Wed May 8 8:07:27 a.m. ET 2013 (10 team league so like a 4.03 in a 12 team)

 
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Think dynasty, not redraft. No one should be too focused on touches or snaps. It's about the opportunity and talent in a dynasty format.

Patience will be rewarded.

 
He will be used all over the field. I'm sure he'll occasionally be lined up at RB, but I'd think more to catch it out of the backfield then run it. He'd get killed otherwise...

 
He will be used all over the field. I'm sure he'll occasionally be lined up at RB, but I'd think more to catch it out of the backfield then run it. He'd get killed otherwise...
Ehhh....not sure about that. He's pretty much the exact same size as Jamaal Charles/Chris Johnson/CJ Spiller(all around 5'10"-5'11" and at/just under 200), and just a touch lighter than Lesean McCoy or Reggie Bush, and it doesn't stop any of them from actually running the ball. I'm not a Robinson proponent by any means, at least not if the idea is that he can be a starting running back at some point soon, but his size shouldn't be that limiting of a factor if he ever does, indeed, get the opportunity.
 
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Think dynasty, not redraft. No one should be too focused on touches or snaps. It's about the opportunity and talent in a dynasty format.

Patience will be rewarded.
I don't think he'll ever be that good as a RB and expect the Jags to draft a RB to replace MJD.

 
Just drafted him at 3.10 in a 12 team. I wanted to wait till the 4th but I decided that may be pushing it.

If nothing else I think he's going to be a fun guy to follow in TC, and with the drive he has and the good head on his shoulders he could surprise many.

 
Targeting him in every draft, even before today's 10-15 touches news. Once people see this guy rip off a couple long runs in the preseason he'll be on everyone's radar where he belongs.The guy is a fast/shifty runner who ran for a gazillion miles in college, can play QB, and will likely be backing up a vet in a contract year coming off an injury. Plus, the team that drafted him is psyched up about him and can't stop talking about him - and it's still April!What's not to love about Denard? Anyone down on him is over thinking things way too much imo. The cost-benefit ratio is strongly in his favor. Well worth the investment.
His ability to stay healthy for one.
I really don't think he's going to be able to stay healthy, personally. Even if he did get 10 touches per game, which I think is unlikely, you'd be risking a goose egg because he could get knocked out of the game early.

 
Just drafted him at 3.10 in a 12 team. I wanted to wait till the 4th but I decided that may be pushing it. If nothing else I think he's going to be a fun guy to follow in TC, and with the drive he has and the good head on his shoulders he could surprise many.
I'm a big fan and took him 2.02 in our rookie draft. It's a 32 team league though, pick #34, so same place you did.Doubt he will ever be a top guy but he will have a role.
 
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Just drafted him at 3.10 in a 12 team. I wanted to wait till the 4th but I decided that may be pushing it. If nothing else I think he's going to be a fun guy to follow in TC, and with the drive he has and the good head on his shoulders he could surprise many.
I'm a big fan and took him 2.02 in our rookie draft. It's a 32 team league though, pick #34, so same place you did.Doubt he will ever be a top guy but he will have a role.
I agree, primarily because I would question his pass protection skills in a lead RB role. The scoring in this dynasty league is pretty high performance based, including KR and PR and long play bonuses, so this obviously gave me more incentive to target him.

Seems like a good kid though, gonna be interesting to watch.

 
Think dynasty, not redraft. No one should be too focused on touches or snaps. It's about the opportunity and talent in a dynasty format.

Patience will be rewarded.
I don't think he'll ever be that good as a RB and expect the Jags to draft a RB to replace MJD.
I think he'll be a good RB, but not a carry the load RB. I think he will be used in various formations. He can give the offense some flexiblity.

A decent dynasty prospect if you can get him in the 2nd or 3rd round, imo.

 
Typical Jaguars. Franklin went ahead of Robinson. You could have traded up for him. Stacy and Barner went after. Makes no sense to gamble on a project who at best won't be better than Franklin. They didn't learn from Matt Jones?

They make picks like this and leave without a QB smfh

 
Huge Michigan fan here that saw pretty much every game of Denard's college career. He's definitely talented from a speed standpoint, but someone mentioned Dexter McCluster and I think that's a MUCH better comparison than Chris Johnson. I don't see any way that he'll ever be a starting RB, and I honestly don't see him ever playing a full season if he does become a starter at some point - he's way too small and injury prone. As a Michigan fan I want to see him to succeed in the NFL, but I don't have a lot of confidence.

 
Huge Michigan fan here that saw pretty much every game of Denard's college career. He's definitely talented from a speed standpoint, but someone mentioned Dexter McCluster and I think that's a MUCH better comparison than Chris Johnson. I don't see any way that he'll ever be a starting RB, and I honestly don't see him ever playing a full season if he does become a starter at some point - he's way too small and injury prone. As a Michigan fan I want to see him to succeed in the NFL, but I don't have a lot of confidence.
I don't see the McCluster comparison. He's listed at 199lbs, 25lbs heavier that McCluster weighed at the combine. He's also listed running a 4.34 or a 4.43 40. McCluster ran a 4.58?
 
Think dynasty, not redraft. No one should be too focused on touches or snaps. It's about the opportunity and talent in a dynasty format.

Patience will be rewarded.
As long as you have enough roster spots to be able to stash him for a while.

I think he is the textbook definition of "boom or bust". He is plenty good on any individual play to do well............................but he is probably going to be hurt a lot.

But, given the chance it is POSSIBLE he can stay healthy, that would be a huge boom. He is a VERY good runner.

I think I would take him mid-late 2nd, and expect nothing.....................but hope to get super lucky.

 
Huge Michigan fan here that saw pretty much every game of Denard's college career. He's definitely talented from a speed standpoint, but someone mentioned Dexter McCluster and I think that's a MUCH better comparison than Chris Johnson. I don't see any way that he'll ever be a starting RB, and I honestly don't see him ever playing a full season if he does become a starter at some point - he's way too small and injury prone. As a Michigan fan I want to see him to succeed in the NFL, but I don't have a lot of confidence.
I don't see the McCluster comparison. He's listed at 199lbs, 25lbs heavier that McCluster weighed at the combine. He's also listed running a 4.34 or a 4.43 40. McCluster ran a 4.58?
Yeah, I don't get the comparison either.

 
Hard to really compare him to anyone but I think his upside may be closer to Eric Metcalf. Another guy who did not really fit as a RB or a WR but was utilized to do some of both and helped in the return game. If I get something like Eric Metcalf out of him I would be happy with that. The real question is how will he function as a RB since that was not his position.

I would love it if he turned out to be Chris Johnson as I drafted him at 5.07 recently in an IDP league but I am not setting my hopes nearly that high.

 
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Hard to really compare him to anyone but I think his upside may be closer to Eric Metcalf. Another guy who did not really fit as a RB or a WR but was utilized to do some of both and helped in the return game. If I get something like Eric Metcalf out of him I would be happy with that. The real question is how will he function as a RB since that was not his position.

I would love it if he turned out to be Chris Johnson as I drafted him at 5.07 recently in an IDP league but I am not setting my hopes nearly that high.
Metcalf has been the guy I've been thinking of all along when deciding how to value him. He'll probably never have a 104-catch season like Metcalf did in '95 though.

 

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