I should likely pay some more attention to ADP for redraft than I have been. That is what I have used the DD as a proxy of before. So I do feel a bit less prepared from that perspective. Mock drafting would help as well.
Against this group and for this format I am not sure how useful those things really are at the same time. They are no help to you against me as I am drafting almost entirely based on my projections.
What I do think is useful is consideration for potential extra games played. For the most part I have been beaten to the punch on players I expect to get a boost from post season stats that are of a similar tier otherwise.
I do think that would be an interesting conversation to have. How do you value the potential of the extra games?
I am looking at it similarly to if you are looking at a player who will miss games due to suspension. But a bit less than that because only a couple teams seem like locks for at least one playoff game.
I have not done this, but what one could do is look at the odds of a team making the post season, and give them a percentage of their PPG based on those odds.
JWB thanks for calling my draft bold.... I can think of a few other words some might use to describe it!
It is not my usual strategy to punt early WR value. At the same time the viable WR pool keeps growing.
Here are the scoring thresholds or baselines for RB and WR over the last 3 seasons:
3 year average RB 12 183.27 RB 24 137.7 (132.25 last 2 seasons) RB 48 RB60 53.6 74.8 RB72 37.7
3 year average WR12 253.9 WR24 197.93 WR36 164.66 WR48 145.13 WR60 119.2 WR72 98.3 WR90 72.8 (last season WR90 scored 85.5 points)
Everyone must roster 64 RB. So the worst starters will be zero, but some of the players who finish at the end of that range will be scoring around 54 points. So a RB1 has a 130 point advantage against the worst starter.
Everyone must roster 90 WR. So the worst starters will be zero, but some of the players who finish at the end of that range will be scoring around 73 points. So a WR1 has a 180 point advantage against the worst starter.
So from a VBD perspective a RB1 is worth 45 points compared to a RB24 the difference between a WR1 and WR24 is 55 points. And the WR1 is worth 50 more points than the worst starter. So the WR1 is worth more than the RB1.
Why I value the RB over the WR is more about scarcity safety and opportunity cost. I do think Forte and Spiller will be top 12 RB in 2014.
The curve at WR is much smoother, so I think I should be able to get players who will not help me win, but should do enough that I am not losing too much total points at the WR position that the advantage I gained from 2 possible top 12 RB will even itself out.
I do not like taking a QB early however I really like what Snyder did this offseason for a change. I think hiring Jay Gruden means near 600 passing attempts for RG3 with improved weapons to work with and a push on defensive improvement means he is going to be a top 5 QB in 2014.
So it was not an intentional strategy to pass WR. That is just how the draft fell for me.
By the time the draft got to my 5th round pick at 77 overall there had been 26 WR selected. So the less attractive WR3 or lesser prospects. At that point the value of the TE was greater than the WR relative to other WR I will be taking later on.
I did not like using the last flex spot this early and I think you guys drafting around me are making pay a bit for that. Especially CalBear who has taken Greg Jennings and Kendall Wright who I also had targeted in the same range as the WR I did get. Terrance Williams and Brandin Cooks.
edit - I had the PPR RB numbers in there at first by mistake.