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How many WRs should go before Calvin in redrafts next year? (1 Viewer)

Well?

  • None - he's still the boss

    Votes: 24 21.6%
  • 1

    Votes: 9 8.1%
  • 2

    Votes: 21 18.9%
  • 3

    Votes: 22 19.8%
  • 4

    Votes: 13 11.7%
  • 5

    Votes: 11 9.9%
  • 6 or more

    Votes: 11 9.9%

  • Total voters
    111

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
***Assume scoring is PPR for sake of the pole***

I've got much love for Calvin, but you have to wonder if the decline is imminent. Injuries bit him this year, he'll be going into his 9th year next season, his yards-per-reception is the lowest since 2010 and his targets are down a bit. With all of this young talent at WR now, I'd have to think long and hard about passing on Beckham, Julio, Dez, Jordy, Thomas and Brown in favor of Calvin.

Just curious if I'm in the minority here.

 
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I don't think you are in the minority here by passing on Calvin. I don't see signs of decline so much as nagging injuries holding him down. None of the other elite WR's you mentioned are immune from injury either. I know the trendy answer will be someone other than Calvin, but he's still the boss man in my book.

Jimmy Graham had a sub-par year as well (due to injuries). Are you going to start a thread on how many TE's you'd take over him?

 
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Calvin will be the #3 WR taken in every league. Don't ask me why, that is just the way it is.

 
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If Calvin had merely shown up as his usual self I'd be going to my finals so I'm probably a bit salty as I post this. That said, I think it's a combination of his big body accumulating nagging injuries and also the mystifying use of him by the staff. I can't believ how many times I've gotten to see Detroit on Redzone and watch as Staffird never even looks at him half the time. Or the game plans wher he is an afterthought throughout the first half.

Especially in PPR here is how I'd go as of now:

Brown

ODB

Demarious

Nelson

Dez

Julio

Green

(Not necessarily in that order)

I'd also consider up and comers like Evans or Benjamin for their youth and upside.

That said, if Calvin slipped to round two, I'm sure I'd take him but I'm thinking he will not be on any team I draft next year.

ETA: Graham is the guy I'll be gunning for in round two if he makes it there.

 
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If Calvin had merely shown up as his usual self I'd be going to my finals so I'm probably a bit salty as I post this. That said, I think it's a combination of his big body accumulating nagging injuries and also the mystifying use of him by the staff. I can't believ how many times I've gotten to see Detroit on Redzone and watch as Staffird never even looks at him half the time. Or the game plans wher he is an afterthought throughout the first half.

Especially in PPR here is how I'd go as of now:

Brown

ODB

Demarious

Dez

Julio

Green

(Not necessarily in that order)

I'd also consider up and comers like Evans or Benjamin for their youth and upside.

That said, if Calvin slipped to round two, I'm sure I'd take him but I'm thinking he will not be on any team I draft next year.

ETA: Graham is the guy I'll be gunning for in round two if he makes it there.
Pretty sure Graham and Calvin will be round 2 guys in most leagues...unless they both put up some monster numbers the rest of the season.

 
A bit early to be thinking about next year for me, but off the cuff I think I would be more likely to pick Brown, Julio, and D. Thomas ahead of him at this point. Maybe Jordy as well. Beckham has been amazing, but it's only about a half season of work so far. Does he really get put above Calvin just based on that half season? Is he a first rounder for sure? I'm not saying that's wrong, just hadn't really thought about it and was surprised to see him first on the list.

 
I think, as with most positions, there will be a few guys that you could justify taking #1. I don't think anything is wrong with any of those guys going in any order.

For next year, I see 4 possible #1's...I'd take them in this order if it were me, but I couldn't really argue with anybody picking one of these guys first.

D. Thomas - His stats over the last few years have proven his worth. Stable situation.

Calvin - When healthy, still the most dominant WR in football.

A. Brown - Simply amazing, and Roethlisberger locks into him. Stable situation.

J. Nelson - Beneficiary of Rodgers. Stable situation. Slight ding just due to so many other WR's.

Some reasons I excluded others:

ODB - He's flat out amazing...but he's got less than 1 year of experience. He also hasn't spent much time with Cruz back. He'll be a GREAT WR...but he's not a top 4 until he does it for another year.

J. Jones - Again, amazing WR...Falcons are crazy inconsistent. Plus, he's got the same injury ding as Calvin, and if I had to pick one of those two, I'd go Megatron every time.

Dez - Probably the closest one to making my top 4, along with AJ...I guess I just don't trust the Cowboys, and I don't trust that Dez will always show up. Physically, he's top 3...mentally, not so much. I also still worry he'll go do something stupid off the field.

A.J. Green - Also great. I owned him this year. Picked him in the 2nd, after taking D. Thomas in the 1st. Only Calvin, D. Thomas, Dez, and Julio were off the board at that point. I feel like he can be shut down sometimes. I also see more options emerging in Cincy, so his targets may go down. The toe thing hurt him this year.

T.Y. Hilton - See ODB. I need another year of it...

R. Cobb - See Nelson, but I think he's just less consistent.

 
I have him at #5 in a safe draft strategy.

Brown, Jones, Bryant, Nelson, Johnson

Would I take him earlier? Probably.

Would I be disappointed if I let him go and wound up "stuck" with a guy like Beckham or Hilton or Green or Sanders? Not at all. WR depth is reaching epic proportions in this pass first environment. Getting time for the pendulum to swing back toward RBS, just not sure how soon that will happen.

 
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I have him at #5 in a safe draft strategy.

Brown, Jones, Bryant, Nelson, Johnson

Would I take him earlier? Probably.

Would I be disappointed if I let him go and wound up "stuck" with a guy like Beckham or Hilton or Green or Sanders? Not at all. WR depth is reaching epic proportions in this pass first environment. Getting time for the pendulum to swing back toward RBS, just not sure how soon that will happen.
Just curious, but where is DT in your ranking?

 
I don't think you are in the minority here by passing on Calvin. I don't see signs of decline so much as nagging injuries holding him down. None of the other elite WR's you mentioned are immune from injury either. I know the trendy answer will be someone other than Calvin, but he's still the boss man in my book.

Jimmy Graham had a sub-par year as well (due to injuries). Are you going to start a thread on how many TE's you'd take over him?
Difference is there is maybe what 2 other TEs you take before the 5th round? With WRs if you look just in the first 2 rounds your talking about probably 6-12 WRs going in a 12 team league.

 
I'd take Antonio Brown and possibly Jordy over him...

Julio gets hurt again next year, book it - Although I accept the argument of him over Calvin

Peyton Manning concerns keep Calvin ahead of DT IMO

ODB will be inconsistent like Victor Cruz (who will also be stealing production from him next year)

Dez getting a new contract, IDK how he plays fresh off of getting paid

AJ Green has Dalton throwing him the ball

 
I have him at #5 in a safe draft strategy.

Brown, Jones, Bryant, Nelson, Johnson

Would I take him earlier? Probably.

Would I be disappointed if I let him go and wound up "stuck" with a guy like Beckham or Hilton or Green or Sanders? Not at all. WR depth is reaching epic proportions in this pass first environment. Getting time for the pendulum to swing back toward RBS, just not sure how soon that will happen.
Just curious, but where is DT in your ranking?
Could these last couple weeks foreshadow next year? Broncos trying to save Manning's arm and health for the playoffs? No reason to have him drop back 40 times a game and take 4-5 hits a game when you can get by with 20 drop backs and taking 1 shot by pounding the rock? Just the thought of that will make his price drop likely.

 
I have him at #5 in a safe draft strategy.

Brown, Jones, Bryant, Nelson, Johnson

Would I take him earlier? Probably.

Would I be disappointed if I let him go and wound up "stuck" with a guy like Beckham or Hilton or Green or Sanders? Not at all. WR depth is reaching epic proportions in this pass first environment. Getting time for the pendulum to swing back toward RBS, just not sure how soon that will happen.
Just curious, but where is DT in your ranking?
Could these last couple weeks foreshadow next year? Broncos trying to save Manning's arm and health for the playoffs? No reason to have him drop back 40 times a game and take 4-5 hits a game when you can get by with 20 drop backs and taking 1 shot by pounding the rock? Just the thought of that will make his price drop likely.
With the exception of week 14, he's had double-digit targets and either 100 yards or a TD (often both) every week since the bye. I know that there's been hype about the Broncos shifting to run-first, and CJ Anderson's emergence in recent weeks has been a sign of change, but honestly, it hasn't hurt D. Thomas' production. Maybe J. Thomas and others, but not DT...He's been arguably the most stable and productive WR outside of maybe Brown since his slow start.

 
Here's how I'd rank fantasy wr's next year (non dynasty, ppr)

antonio brown

demaryious

dez bryant

jordy nelson

calvin johnson

aj green

julio jones

odell

cobb

gordon

With that being said--I personally predict that many fantasy football players will abandon the early round RB love in drafts--and I could see all of these guys (maybe not gordon if he finishes the season in a horrid fashion) gone in the first 20 or so picks of drafts next season.

 
Here's how I'd rank fantasy wr's next year (non dynasty, ppr)

antonio brown

demaryious

dez bryant

jordy nelson

calvin johnson

aj green

julio jones

odell

cobb

gordon

With that being said--I personally predict that many fantasy football players will abandon the early round RB love in drafts--and I could see all of these guys (maybe not gordon if he finishes the season in a horrid fashion) gone in the first 20 or so picks of drafts next season.
I went WR-WR with the 12th pick in a 12-team re-draft. Then I picked Gronk at the end of the 3rd. My 1st RB was Spiller, then Joique Bell and Ray Rice. I ended up scoring Bradshaw and Ingram in the late rounds. I traded both Bradshaw and Ingram early on for more WR's because my WR3 was very weak.

I finished in 1st and am in the finals this week behind the strength of WR's D. Thomas, A.J. Green, K. Benjamin (traded for Bradshaw), and Gronk, and a slew of WW RB's who have come through when I needed them (McKinnon/Asiata, Herron, Mason, A. Blue).

I'll absolutely consider going WR-WR again next year unless I'm dead set on an RB. I've picked last or second to last in a random-order draft 4 out of the last 5 years, so I'm getting good at unorthodox strategies...

 
Hu-Tang Clan said:
Mr. Know-It-All said:
I have him at #5 in a safe draft strategy.

Brown, Jones, Bryant, Nelson, Johnson

Would I take him earlier? Probably.

Would I be disappointed if I let him go and wound up "stuck" with a guy like Beckham or Hilton or Green or Sanders? Not at all. WR depth is reaching epic proportions in this pass first environment. Getting time for the pendulum to swing back toward RBS, just not sure how soon that will happen.
Just curious, but where is DT in your ranking?
I debated between Calvin and DT, I would have him at #6.

 
This list is assuming nor major injuries in the playoffs or off season and no major movement in free agency/trades.

In no particular order.

DT

Dez

Green

OBJ

Jordy

A. Brown

After this you could make a case for a few guys, but I think I would go Calvin

 
right now....maybe these guys

DT

Dez

A.Brown

but lots of things will change between now and next August including what happens in the next two weeks......granted this has been a down year.....but if season ended today he is still at 61-935-6 on 105 targets....and still WR20 in PPR with 3 missed games and dinged in others.....injury concerns only thing that really drops him in my mind and why Julio isn't on list above....if CJ has a couple monster weeks to finish the year and maybe does the same in a playoff game or 2....we may not really be having this conversation heading into next year....

CJ is 3 weeks removed from an 11-146-2 line on 14 targets and 2 weeks removed from 8-158-1 on 9 targets.....add that to the fact that he has the talent to do that almost every week and he has shown he can have stretches like that (monster games)......I'm not sure there is another WR ahead of him I would think has that kind of week to week ceiling/monster upside.....

guess I kinda of look where he is at now, what he could do in these last two games.....and what he could have done in the 3 he missed.....(we probably wouldn't be having this conversation).....if you head into a fantasy season drafting thinking every player plays every game, then CJ is probably still #1.....because I think if you add 5 games (3 missed injury + 2 still left) and he gives you production like above in even a few of those, he is fantasy gold....weighing in the injury factor is always tough....

 
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To the points above about Cruz's return, I don't look at that as a negative. ODB is ripping up the league with nobody else on his team drawing coverage. What in the world can he accomplish when there is another receiver the defense has to account for? I'd roll with BOTH of them every week without hesitation.

 
To the points above about Cruz's return, I don't look at that as a negative. ODB is ripping up the league with nobody else on his team drawing coverage. What in the world can he accomplish when there is another receiver the defense has to account for? I'd roll with BOTH of them every week without hesitation.
This is the eternal dual-sided argument.

Having 2 good WR's on a team helps both because they can't focus coverage on one guy or the other burns them.

- flip side -

Having 2 good WR's means nobody is a lock to dominate the targets, and you can never tell who will have a good game.

I'll gladly take a WR1 on a team with 1 star WR over a WR1(a) on a team with 2 star WR's if everything else is equal (rarely is). That's just me though...I get both arguments. It's hard to prove the coverage one, but targets don't lie.

 
To the points above about Cruz's return, I don't look at that as a negative. ODB is ripping up the league with nobody else on his team drawing coverage. What in the world can he accomplish when there is another receiver the defense has to account for? I'd roll with BOTH of them every week without hesitation.
This is the eternal dual-sided argument.

Having 2 good WR's on a team helps both because they can't focus coverage on one guy or the other burns them.

- flip side -

Having 2 good WR's means nobody is a lock to dominate the targets, and you can never tell who will have a good game.

I'll gladly take a WR1 on a team with 1 star WR over a WR1(a) on a team with 2 star WR's if everything else is equal (rarely is). That's just me though...I get both arguments. It's hard to prove the coverage one, but targets don't lie.
:goodposting:

 
If its PPR I think Brown has to be #1 WR. I don't remember the exact stat, but hasn't he had like 30+ consecutive games with 5+ catches and 50+ yards? Doesn't get much more consistent than that.

 
I got a feeling that by next August if there are 3 or more WR's off the board not named CJ and we are up in our drafts and we need a WR....most of us would be sprinting to the podium....and 3 might be high

 
To the points above about Cruz's return, I don't look at that as a negative. ODB is ripping up the league with nobody else on his team drawing coverage. What in the world can he accomplish when there is another receiver the defense has to account for? I'd roll with BOTH of them every week without hesitation.
This is the eternal dual-sided argument.

Having 2 good WR's on a team helps both because they can't focus coverage on one guy or the other burns them.

- flip side -

Having 2 good WR's means nobody is a lock to dominate the targets, and you can never tell who will have a good game.

I'll gladly take a WR1 on a team with 1 star WR over a WR1(a) on a team with 2 star WR's if everything else is equal (rarely is). That's just me though...I get both arguments. It's hard to prove the coverage one, but targets don't lie.
:goodposting:
Mentioned this in the OBJ thread, but it applies here too.

Cruz tore his patellar tendon. This is far more serious than an ACL injury. Just ask Ryan and Cadillac Williams. Very good chance he'll never be the same explosive player he was before the injury.

 
1) I don't think it's a given Cruz comes back at his former level of play at his age. Not saying it's a longshot, just not a given.

2) Eli is still the common denominator. In the scenario above where you have hypothetically 2 stud WR's, options 1A and 1B, I don't think that Eli is talented enough to make both of them consistent fantasy studs worthy of their high draft status. It would be similar to the hype this year that Cutler had that he would have dual stud WR's to throw to and that never really materialized.

So based on that, if anything I'm bullish on ODB being a top echelon WR next season and Eli will continue to be a mediocre QB for fantasy. Where that leaves Cruz? I don't know but I won't value him as much as others.

 
Sure Calvin has been banged up this season. Though I'm not sure if Calvin has really declined or if the other WRs are just finally catching up to him. He's still the #1 WR on a pass happy team. I could still see people taking him as the 1st WR next year, but for the first time in a long time, you can actually make a case for taking another WR over Calvin. I think that just goes to show how deep the position is, moreso than it says Calvin is declining.

 
I'd take Demaryius Thomas & Antonio Brown over him, but if those two are gone & I'm wanting to go WR, I don't think I could pass on Megatron.

 
Sure Calvin has been banged up this season. Though I'm not sure if Calvin has really declined or if the other WRs are just finally catching up to him. He's still the #1 WR on a pass happy team. I could still see people taking him as the 1st WR next year, but for the first time in a long time, you can actually make a case for taking another WR over Calvin. I think that just goes to show how deep the position is, moreso than it says Calvin is declining.
The problem with Calvin isn't just that he's been injured. It's also that Det isn't the pass happy haven it was before. They are 9th in pass attempts this year. The improvements on D have made them a better team, but also reduced fantasy impact. Can we expect that to continue I to next year? I'm not really sure. Both Suh and Fairely are FA so it's unlikely they are able to keep both. I'm not sure if any WR should be taken ahead of Calvin. He's still perhaps the most talented WR in the NFL and he and Stafford seem to have a good thing going. Tate is going to dip into the number a little but Calvin at full speed can afford to lose a little and still be the best.

Guys who I can see in the argument or will go ahead of him.

Julio

AJ

Dez

Brown

That's probably it.

Others with larger questions.

DT - what's happening with Peyton?

OBJ - great rookie but still a rookie. How much confidence will people really have?

Evans - see above but also plays in TB...

Nelson - too reliant on Rodgers?

 
Fat Nick said:
I think, as with most positions, there will be a few guys that you could justify taking #1. I don't think anything is wrong with any of those guys going in any order.

For next year, I see 4 possible #1's...I'd take them in this order if it were me, but I couldn't really argue with anybody picking one of these guys first.

D. Thomas - His stats over the last few years have proven his worth. Stable situation.

Calvin - When healthy, still the most dominant WR in football.

A. Brown - Simply amazing, and Roethlisberger locks into him. Stable situation.

J. Nelson - Beneficiary of Rodgers. Stable situation. Slight ding just due to so many other WR's.

Some reasons I excluded others:

ODB - He's flat out amazing...but he's got less than 1 year of experience. He also hasn't spent much time with Cruz back. He'll be a GREAT WR...but he's not a top 4 until he does it for another year.

J. Jones - Again, amazing WR...Falcons are crazy inconsistent. Plus, he's got the same injury ding as Calvin, and if I had to pick one of those two, I'd go Megatron every time.

Dez - Probably the closest one to making my top 4, along with AJ...I guess I just don't trust the Cowboys, and I don't trust that Dez will always show up. Physically, he's top 3...mentally, not so much. I also still worry he'll go do something stupid off the field.

A.J. Green - Also great. I owned him this year. Picked him in the 2nd, after taking D. Thomas in the 1st. Only Calvin, D. Thomas, Dez, and Julio were off the board at that point. I feel like he can be shut down sometimes. I also see more options emerging in Cincy, so his targets may go down. The toe thing hurt him this year.

T.Y. Hilton - See ODB. I need another year of it...

R. Cobb - See Nelson, but I think he's just less consistent.
So Josh Gordon isn't even being considered in the top 10 WR category?

 
Unless the Browns trade for a capable veteran, the QB situation is going to be ugly, and you can set your watch to Gordon doing something dumb. Pass.

 
Sure Calvin has been banged up this season. Though I'm not sure if Calvin has really declined or if the other WRs are just finally catching up to him. He's still the #1 WR on a pass happy team. I could still see people taking him as the 1st WR next year, but for the first time in a long time, you can actually make a case for taking another WR over Calvin. I think that just goes to show how deep the position is, moreso than it says Calvin is declining.
The problem with Calvin isn't just that he's been injured. It's also that Det isn't the pass happy haven it was before. They are 9th in pass attempts this year. The improvements on D have made them a better team, but also reduced fantasy impact. Can we expect that to continue I to next year? I'm not really sure. Both Suh and Fairely are FA so it's unlikely they are able to keep both.I'm not sure if any WR should be taken ahead of Calvin. He's still perhaps the most talented WR in the NFL and he and Stafford seem to have a good thing going. Tate is going to dip into the number a little but Calvin at full speed can afford to lose a little and still be the best.

Guys who I can see in the argument or will go ahead of him.

Julio

AJ

Dez

Brown

That's probably it.

Others with larger questions.

DT - what's happening with Peyton?

OBJ - great rookie but still a rookie. How much confidence will people really have?

Evans - see above but also plays in TB...

Nelson - too reliant on Rodgers?
Plenty. I've seen all I need to see. He's unstoppable.

 
jumper said:
Fat Nick said:
I think, as with most positions, there will be a few guys that you could justify taking #1. I don't think anything is wrong with any of those guys going in any order.

For next year, I see 4 possible #1's...I'd take them in this order if it were me, but I couldn't really argue with anybody picking one of these guys first.

D. Thomas - His stats over the last few years have proven his worth. Stable situation.

Calvin - When healthy, still the most dominant WR in football.

A. Brown - Simply amazing, and Roethlisberger locks into him. Stable situation.

J. Nelson - Beneficiary of Rodgers. Stable situation. Slight ding just due to so many other WR's.

Some reasons I excluded others:

ODB - He's flat out amazing...but he's got less than 1 year of experience. He also hasn't spent much time with Cruz back. He'll be a GREAT WR...but he's not a top 4 until he does it for another year.

J. Jones - Again, amazing WR...Falcons are crazy inconsistent. Plus, he's got the same injury ding as Calvin, and if I had to pick one of those two, I'd go Megatron every time.

Dez - Probably the closest one to making my top 4, along with AJ...I guess I just don't trust the Cowboys, and I don't trust that Dez will always show up. Physically, he's top 3...mentally, not so much. I also still worry he'll go do something stupid off the field.

A.J. Green - Also great. I owned him this year. Picked him in the 2nd, after taking D. Thomas in the 1st. Only Calvin, D. Thomas, Dez, and Julio were off the board at that point. I feel like he can be shut down sometimes. I also see more options emerging in Cincy, so his targets may go down. The toe thing hurt him this year.

T.Y. Hilton - See ODB. I need another year of it...

R. Cobb - See Nelson, but I think he's just less consistent.
So Josh Gordon isn't even being considered in the top 10 WR category?
It isn't that Gordon can't finish top 10, but if you were drafting for 2015 right now, why would you reach for him? He will be available in late 2nd or early 3rd.

 
In PPR, maybe two: Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. That's it. I can't say Jordy cause so much of his crazy success this year has been cause of a million long scores, and you just can't count on a WR catching that many long bombs every year. I'd have to see what happens with Dez and the Cowboys before I say him. Julio Jones is awesome beyond words when he plays, but he gets hurt every year.

 
Sure Calvin has been banged up this season. Though I'm not sure if Calvin has really declined or if the other WRs are just finally catching up to him. He's still the #1 WR on a pass happy team. I could still see people taking him as the 1st WR next year, but for the first time in a long time, you can actually make a case for taking another WR over Calvin. I think that just goes to show how deep the position is, moreso than it says Calvin is declining.
The problem with Calvin isn't just that he's been injured. It's also that Det isn't the pass happy haven it was before. They are 9th in pass attempts this year. The improvements on D have made them a better team, but also reduced fantasy impact. Can we expect that to continue I to next year? I'm not really sure. Both Suh and Fairely are FA so it's unlikely they are able to keep both.I'm not sure if any WR should be taken ahead of Calvin. He's still perhaps the most talented WR in the NFL and he and Stafford seem to have a good thing going. Tate is going to dip into the number a little but Calvin at full speed can afford to lose a little and still be the best.

Guys who I can see in the argument or will go ahead of him.

Julio

AJ

Dez

Brown

That's probably it.

Others with larger questions.

DT - what's happening with Peyton?

OBJ - great rookie but still a rookie. How much confidence will people really have?

Evans - see above but also plays in TB...

Nelson - too reliant on Rodgers?
Plenty. I've seen all I need to see. He's unstoppable.
He's pretty much #1 on my redraft board now.

 
My top 10 would be:

1. Dez

2. Brown

3. DT

4. Beckham

5. Calvin

6. Julio

7. AJ

8. Jordy

9. Gordon

10. Jeffery

Benjamin, Watkins, Hilton, Cobb were also considerations. I'd peg Jordan Matthews as a sleeper who could be a top ten guy. Also not too sure what to do with the ridiculously talented leftovers from this year's rookie class: landry, mart bryant, montcrief, etc. who could soar if they become top options.

 

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