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*** Official 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season thread *** / Now 2015 too (1 Viewer)

Mjolnirs

Mjolnirs

Footballguy
Most predictions I've seen are for a quiet season. Here's hoping that's the case.

This year's names:
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

 
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Weather guy I follow posted this the other day: A lot of severe weather is on the horizon, including the potential for a tropical storm in the gulf of mexico.

 
That track model shows they have pretty much no idea what this low pressure system will do. If it heads towards Florida, looks like I'll get some rain.

 
It's looking like it will drift south lingering off the coast of Georgia and Florida soaking everyone east of 95. Then the normal currents will pick it up and it will head back north hugging the Carolina coast and turn out to sea. Looks like mid a midweek soaking for me.

 
The good news is that Hurricanes Bertha, Dolly, Fay, and Nana will bring nothing but butterscotch.

 
Tropical wave 94L off the coast of Africa looks fairly impressive right now. Lots of dry air to the north should keep it down more south, but that will also be the reason that this either doesn't develop or doesn't get too big. Looks like all of the major model runs are thinking this thing will fizzle out in the next couple of days, but a few of the ensembles are giving it an OK chance to hit Tropical Storm levels.

One thing about the dry air up north of it is that it will most likely keep the wave moving west, which would put it around the Lesser Antilles on Saturday. If it can withstand the dry northern air and mild wind shear, it could continue west towards Florida or the GOM.

Again, most models aren't giving much thought to 94L, but there is a chance it survives its long trek over the Atlantic.

 
Guess I'll post in here now. I forgot there was a thread for the Hurricane Season.

Looks like convection of 96L isn't blowing up the way the models suggested. It's actually starting to disorganize more than organize. Hurricane Hunters have had a flight scheduled for today, but now that may be pushed back. Still waiting on the decision for that.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Guess I'll post in here now. I forgot there was a thread for the Hurricane Season.

Looks like convection of 96L isn't blowing up the way the models suggested. It's actually starting to disorganize more than organize. Hurricane Hunters have had a flight scheduled for today, but now that may be pushed back. Still waiting on the decision for that.
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Please keep us posted.....

 
Was hoping 96L would do just enough to be named Cristobal (Colon) and run weakly into the Bahamas.

 
JaxBill said:
Was hoping 96L would do just enough to be named Cristobal (Colon) and run weakly into the Bahamas.
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There's still a chance this thing turns into Cristobal. It's just that last night, people believed it was growing very rapidly. That didn't happen overnight like expected.

 
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
3C said:
Gawain said:
Invest 96L looking like it could be the third named storm of the season.
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That one could get interesting for the Gulf next week.
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Looks like the models have it blowing out to sea.
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Yeah, model shows strong ridge in the south which should build the trough in the western Atlantic and that turns it N/NE.
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The thought was the faster this thing developed, the more west it could have gone. So much so, that at one point models were thinking TX/LA border. Considering where 96L is at now, the chances this is a swing and a miss gets more and more likely. Looks like it could still become a pretty hefty storm, though. Guess Bermuda is still in the <Archer> DANGER ZONE! </Archer>

 
Here's an update:

The circulation center of 96L has jumped considerably to the northwest over the past day, resulting in northward shifts in the expected track of the system from all of the major models. On Saturday, 96L may pass near or over the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. By Sunday, 96L is expected to be near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and both the GFS and UKMET models predict that 96L will be able to develop into a tropical depression by Sunday or Monday. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, though Sunday, then rise on Monday. With dry air expected to be in the region, wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. A trough of low pressure is expected to be over the U.S. East Coast early next week, and the GFS and European models predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn 96L north and then northeast, keeping the storm away from the Southeast U.S. coast. However, long-range model forecasts of disturbances that haven't formed into a tropical depression yet are unreliable, and we should not be confident that 96L will miss the Mainland U.S. yet. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 50% and 70%, respectively.
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With each new model run, the area of low pressure moves into the Bahamas, then just kind of stalls there. The initial thought was that it would move north than out to sea. But the models are starting to come back saying that's not the case. It's very odd. The UKMET is still in belief that the track will continue west towards FL.

There are a lot of theories as to why the stall is happening for such a long time, but my belief is that the models are having trouble steering this storm due to the fact there is no storm yet.

Even the models with the stall are showing weak development, if any. And the UKMET has the storm passing over high terrain that will wreak havoc on a shoddily developed system.

My excitement for this system has diminished considerably since yesterday.

 
So the models are saying anywhere from heading out to sea, to stalling over the Bahamas for 4 days, to Miami landfall followed by a FL panhandle second landfall.

Model forecasting is fun. :lol:

 
Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.

Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.

Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.

Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.

Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
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Interesting. As I posted this, that second link updated again. And moved some to the west.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.

Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.

Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
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HWRF is based off GFS. GFS is not good at long range.

 
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
Some new model runs coming in. One of note is the HWRF has not budged since yesterday. While all of the other models continue to course correct and move the system all over the place, this one has continued to say the same thing: Miami landfall.

Other than that, the UKMET is still thinking this thing goes into the GOM. It, also, has not wavered from that thought.

Other than that, the other models are still all over the place. Literally.
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HWRF is based off GFS. GFS is not good at long range.
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To be fair, as I said in this thread and the other, none of these models are good until a storm actually develops. That's why there are so many wildly different predictions.

I still see this thing heading north and curving out to sea. There's just too much working against it right now.

 
Gawain said:
This "storm," like many before it, looks to be nothing but a bunch of hot air.
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It's either going to be nothing, or something big. Or possibly somewhere in between. That, I can assure you. Well. I'm about 70% sure of that. Take that to the bank brohans.

 
96L is going to run over land tonight, so the NHC has lowered their chances of it becoming something, at least for another 24 hours.

To continue into our "anything is possible" theory with this, overnight the models have zoned in on it hitting either the Gulf Coast, FL, the eastern seaboard (as high up as New England) or going out to sea. They are fairly certain it will be one of those scenarios. Of course, as of now, 96L is still not a storm. So if you are in the Western and Northern Hemisphere, might want to keep an eye out.

 
Chances of Gulf Coast are extremely slim. Only scenario I see is a brush with the coast but even that isn't likely. Nice explanation from a weather nerd:

Yesterday, the models reversed, showing a recurve or SE coast hit. This is because the steering pattern in the Atlantic, the high pressure system splits, sending a high pressure over the Gulf and keeping the main high in place in the central atlantic. Jet streams dip southward creating a ridge. As the tropical system moves west/NW, it senses the high in the gulf and central atlantic, and turns N following the split between the 2 high pressures. Now this is where it gets tricky: a 3rd high pressure will determine if it recurves OTS or tracks closer to the coast. This 3rd high pressure will dip S/SE out of nova scotia into NY funneling in unseasonably cool air. In doing so, if it sets up, this would prevent a landfall or coast track on the SE/Midatlantic and recurve it OTS. If the low fails to set up and stay in place, than a track closer to the coast could be in question.

 
Gawain said:
The GFDL puts 96L right into Atlantic City.
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I'd advise against looking at one particular model and worrying about where it sends it. A lot of times these models can have a tough time with data, especially long range. Again, 96L hasn't even become a storm yet, and this is the main reason a lot of models are having trouble with long range forecasting.

Is there a possibility this things hits up high on the East Coast? Sure. Probably the same percentage that it hits somewhere on the Gulf Coast. Once this sucker takes form the models will start coming back a little better.

The newest GFS run just turned the blocking ridge into another system. Not going to happen. You know the old saying about models: They're fun to look at but they can be dumb as hell a lot of times.

 
Gawain said:
3C said:
But the European models are smarter and more sophisticated. ;)
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Yeah, but hairy armpits.

Also, wasn't sheik freaking out about Arthur on the outer banks?
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Maybe a little. :mellow:

ETA: in his defense, it was a good idea to stay on top of that one for those down there (shady). Definitely had potential. I know a few people who were there near the center and they said they'd never seen one like it.

 
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Gawain said:
3C said:
But the European models are smarter and more sophisticated. ;)
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Yeah, but hairy armpits.

Also, wasn't sheik freaking out about Arthur on the outer banks?
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Not sure I was freaking out. What I had said was that I don't like when people not to worry about a certain storm. Mainly because your level of preparedness and knowledge may be completely different. Your idea of freaking out may be to stay indoors and hunker down. But someone else could hear "don't worry" and think it's safe to go roam the streets. :shrug:

 
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