Should you put any stock in postseason performance for SP? (1 Viewer)

Looks like John Lester is on his way out of Boston. He's has a very good track record in the postseason and has been fantastic in the WS. Does this count or is it just a smaller sample of a good pitcher pitching a bit better than his career norms? Having a debate with a friend and he claims that postseason performance is irrelevant. He totally discounts athletes stepping up on a big stage and contens that a larger sample size said players would regress to their norms.

elguapo07 said:

Looks like John Lester is on his way out of Boston. He's has a very good track record in the postseason and has been fantastic in the WS. Does this count or is it just a smaller sample of a good pitcher pitching a bit better than his career norms? Having a debate with a friend and he claims that postseason performance is irrelevant. He totally discounts athletes stepping up on a big stage and contens that a larger sample size said players would regress to their norms.

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Of course he does. The gospel of SABR does not subscribe to the notion of clutch under pressure. In fact, the whole playoff tournament is a crap shoot. Bob Gibson and Jack Morris weren't great big game pitchers, they were just good players who randomly performed well within a small sample size. SSS is the go to response to anything doesn't fit a narrative. In the same vein, SABRmetrics does not acknowldege hot or cold streaks. Players are not streaky; we just cherry pick artificial end points to justify a perception.

Yes, but not as much as mainstream media does.

isn't price like 1-4 in post season with an earned run average of 5:06. small sample but something to think about