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[Dynasty] 2015 Draft Prospects (1 Viewer)

Nelson Agholor puts on show in USC win over California:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000427936/article/nelson-agholor-puts-on-show-in-usc-win-over-california


Sources Tell Us: What we're hearing about top NFL prospects

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419864/article/sources-tell-us-what-were-hearing-about-top-nfl-prospects

Excerpt:

The scoop: USC WR Nelson Agholor reminds an NFC scout of a young Reggie Wayne in the way he runs routes and gets in and out of cuts. One concern the scout expressed about Agholor was field awareness. He stepped out of bounds a yard short of the first-down marker on 4th-and-2 late in the fourth quarter against Utah. It would have sealed the game for USC had he stayed inbounds. Also, earlier in the game on a third-down pass he didn't run a route deep enough and he caught the ball a yard short of the first down.

The skinny: The comparison to Wayne is apt. Agholor has really worked to make the transition from playing running back in high school to becoming a top-flight wideout in college. The field awareness issues are part of the learning process. Those are things that can be cleaned up. USC loves his work ethic and thinks he's going to keep getting better.
Rotoworld:

Nelson Agholor - WR - Trojans

CBS Sports' Rob Rang observed that USC junior WR Nelson Agholor "changes direction fluidly," which allows him to gain yards after he catches the ball.

That same acceleration and ability to change directions also suits Agholor well as a punt returner. He has the vision and patience to set up blocks when returning the ball. Rang was most impressed by a play that got called back on a hold. "Agholor took a quick screen from [quarterback Cody] Kessler, made a Cal defender miss and exploded down the left sideline...weav[ing] his way through traffic for a 78-yard touchdown [that got called back]." Agholor had 216 yards receiving in the contest, marking back-to-back 200+ yard games. He has four straight with 100 or more yards. He hasn't officially declared for the draft, but it was reported by TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline that according to his sources, "odds are high" that the junior declares.

Source: CBS Sports
Nov 14 - 6:56 PM
NFL.com's Bucky Brooks observed that USC junior WR Nelson Agholor showed off superior "route-running, ball skills and run-after-catch ability" in posting 216 yards against Cal.

Brooks called Agholor's performances earlier in the year a "mixed bag," but has been all-in on the receiver as of late. That'll happen when a prospect puts up back-to-back 200-yard receiving games. According to Brooks, Agholor's game is still "ascending." This bodes well for the receiver's prospects, as "scouts plac[e] a heavy emphasis on the way a prospect finishes the season." Agholor is also a skilled returner, which will help his stock with teams that might not necessarily view him as a No.1 receiver.

Source: NFL.com
Nov 17 - 10:38 PM
Entering the season, TFY Draft Insider Tony Pauline had an initial low grade on USC junior WR Nelson Agholor, but notes that he has proven him wrong.

"Entering the season I gave Agholor a very low grade and have been proven wrong. The dynamic receiver has impressed scouts all season long and he turned in a career performance against Cal last week with 16 receptions for 216-yards and 2-scores," Pauline writes. Agholor has now had back-to-back 200+ yard games and also has four straight with 100 or more yards. Pauline notes that Agholor is a "terrific timing receiver who creates after the catch and has a nose for the end zone,"and Agholor "is expected to enter the draft and fits into the initial 80 picks."

Source: TFY Draft Insider
Nov 17 - 3:29 PM
 
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Rotoworld:

Georgia Tech senior WR Deandre Smelter caught five passes for 77 yards and a touchdown in the school's 28-6 win over Clemson.

Smelter is a receiver in the Yellow Jackets option offense so he does not see a ton of targets, and when the school does pass it allows for one on one coverage on the outside. Smelter is very good at winning in these situations, however, elevating to make contested catches or along the sideline. He could be a "riser" throughout the process.

Nov 15 - 3:01 PM
South Carolina junior RB Mike Davis rushed for 56 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in the school's 20-17 OT win over Florida.

Davis added another 23 yards in the air. The junior was held to a long run of 10 yards and briefly left with an injury. It has not been an outstanding season for Davis and especially not for South Carolina, but expect him to be in the NFL next season.

Nov 15 - 3:52 PM
Washington State redshirt senior WR Vince Mayle has accepted an invitation to play in the East-West Shrine game.

Listed at 6'3/219 pounds, Mayle offers size and has caught 86 passes for 1,152 yards and nine touchdowns in Washington State's pass focused offense. The JUCO transfer is also a former basketball player and won a dunk contest at the lower level of competition.

Source: Shrine Game
Nov 15 - 11:24 AM
Louisville senior RB Dominique Brown has accepted an invitation to play in the East-West Shrine game.

Brown has not played in the last three games and has lost a number of carries to Michael Dyer. However, before then he rushed for 374 yards and four touchdowns on 95 carries, a major drop in production compared to 2013.

Source: Shrine Game
Nov 15 - 9:54 AM
 
Melvin Gordon beasting. 25 rushes, 408yds (new single game FBS record) and 4 TDs. End of the 3rd quarter.

Gap is narrowing IMO between him and Gurley. I still take Gurley first, but it's close. Only flaw in Gordon is unknown in receiving and seems to lack true top end speed. His initial burst is excellent and he gets to his top speed very quickly, but seems to lose steam a bit after 30yds. He's a stud though.

 
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I've been watching the game and he's looked good but the defense has been awful. There has been massive hole after massive hole. Not a knock on Gordon, because he's taken advantage of what he's given, but as a prospect I still don't think he's close to Gurley.

His lack of usage in the pass game is a major knock on him as far as being a workhorse in the NFL. I also feel like he goes down pretty easily on the few times there wasn't a gaping hole. Those gaping holes won't be there in the NFL. Not sure how he'll do when he's being hit around the LOS every play.

 
Gordon doesn't have the instincts of Gurlely. I don't think the gap is closing at all. Gordon has been underrated for a while, though.

 
I can see the comparisons to Charles, though it seems like Gordon runs with more power than Charles ever did in college.

 
I can see the comparisons to Charles, though it seems like Gordon runs with more power than Charles ever did in college.
He's a good bit bigger than Charles, which helps. He's Chalres like with more power and size but less explosiveness, burst and speed.

 
Rotoworld:

Stanford junior WR Ty Montgomery has accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl.

Montgomery is a fast straight-line runner who has issues with consistency in the receiving game. On the season, he has 60 receptions for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery is an intriguing prospect because of his skills in the return game, but while he's viewed as a potential first-round prospect in some circles, we do not think his ability as a wideout warrants such a high selection.

Source: Senior Bowl
Nov 17 - 9:36 PM
Michigan State senior RB Jeremy Langford has accepted his invite to the Senior Bowl.

Langford's rushed for 1,116 yards and 15 catches on 203 carries this season. He's fresh off of a 138-yard effort against Maryland. The senior has shown improved vision and finishing power this season. TFY Draft Insider's Tony Pauline recently wrote that the running back had "all the tools" to succeed in the NFL. He is currently projected as a mid-round pick.

Source: Senior Bowl
Nov 17 - 7:03 PM
 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.
Exactly. His immediate burst is elite, but his sustained top end speed is average.

 
Anyone mind sharing some TEs I should be keeping an eye on? It seems like an awful TE class based on the lack of buzz, especially for FF purposes.

 
Here's my rough first look at this year's WR stats. These are the 20 guys with the best numbers (whether or not they're draft eligible).

First column shows number of big plays per game, where a big play is a receiving TD or a 25-yard reception. Second column shows the percentage of the team's passing production that the player accounted for (adjusted for missed games), which is the average of: pct of team's passing yards, pct of team's passing TDs, pct of team's 25+ yard passes. The ranking is based on a few stats like these, similar to what I did in the offseason but much simpler.

BP/g Prod% Player Team

3.3 51% Rashard Higgins Colorado State
3.5 38% Corey Coleman Baylor

2.3 51% Amari Cooper Alabama
2.3 53% Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
2.5 54% Titus Davis Central Michigan
2.4 46% Corey Davis Western Michigan
2.0 55% Joshua McCain Idaho

2.1 42% Kevin White West Virginia
2.1 44% Keevan Lucas Tulsa
1.8 52% John Harris Texas
1.5 54% Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh
2.0 45% Leonte Carroo Rutgers
1.9 48% Teldrick Morgan New Mexico State
2.0 43% Tony Lippett Michigan State
1.7 49% Da'Ron Brown Northern Illinois
1.9 41% Nelson Spruce Colorado
2.2 38% Antonio Vaughan Old Dominion
1.4 46% DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech
1.9 37% Nelson Agholor USC
1.8 41% Hunter Sharp Utah State

 
Anyone mind sharing some TEs I should be keeping an eye on? It seems like an awful TE class based on the lack of buzz, especially for FF purposes.
Maxx Williams is the top dog. But only a Redshirt Sophomore. He should declare, though, because he might not be the top guy for 2016.

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.
No one who compares Gordon to Charles references the speed. It's the similar running styles. There are some cuts he makes that's very Charles-esque. One other RB I see in him is Joique Bell when he gets really compact especially in traffic. From an athletic/physical/measureables standpoint, he should test similar to David Wilson and Jerick McKinnon. Both those guys aren't "fast" but are plenty explosive.

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.
No one who compares Gordon to Charles references the speed. It's the similar running styles. There are some cuts he makes that's very Charles-esque. One other RB I see in him is Joique Bell when he gets really compact especially in traffic. From an athletic/physical/measureables standpoint, he should test similar to David Wilson and Jerick McKinnon. Both those guys aren't "fast" but are plenty explosive.
I think you misunderstood, my fault. I meant that although plenty of guys are making understandable Charles comparisons for the reasons you gave, hearing "Charles" over and over again is evoking a speed comparison among the generic dynasty owner population that hasn't seen much film.

 
Now some RB Stats, updating the numbers on last month's post. First Downs + TDs + 20-yard carries per attempt, with notable RBs bolded:

1T20/a Player Team Yr
59.4% Jhurell Pressley New Mexico JR
53.9% Matt Breida Ga South SO
52.9% Melvin Gordon Wisconsin JR
52.5% Ray Lawry ODU FR
50.4% Todd Gurley Georgia JR
49.6% Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte SO
49.4% Devon Johnson Marshall JR
48.8% Kareem Hunt Toledo SO
47.6% Aaron Green TCU JR
47.0% Michael Gordon Ark St JR
45.4% Nick Chubb Georgia FR
45.2% James Conner Pittsburgh SO
44.9% Breon Allen ECU SR
44.9% Duke Johnson Miami (Fl) JR
43.3% Samaje Perine Oklahoma FR
43.2% Noah Copeland Navy SR
43.1% Ameer Abdullah Nebraska SR
42.9% Corey Clement Wisconsin SO
42.4% Jeremy Langford Mich St SR
41.9% Jonathan Williams Arkansas JR

Other notable RBs:

1T20/a Player Team Yr
41.1% Josh Robinson Miss St JR
40.7% Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State SO
40.7% Shock Linwood Baylor SO
39.3% Alex Collins Arkansas SO
39.3% Tevin Coleman Indiana JR
38.2% Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn SR
35.3% Mike Davis S Carolina JR
35.0% David Cobb Minnesota SR
33.6% Javorius Allen USC JR
31.5% Jay Ajayi Boise St JR
31.1% Kenneth Dixon La Tech JR
29.8% T.J. Yeldon Alabama JR
29.3% Leonard Fournette LSU FR

For comparison, most of last year's draft class ranged from 48% (Hyde) to 38% (Sims), except for Andre Williams at 33%.

 
The more I look at your metric here the more I like it Z. I think it does everything mine does, and improves on it. Any idea how far back there's first down data?

 
Anyone mind sharing some TEs I should be keeping an eye on? It seems like an awful TE class based on the lack of buzz, especially for FF purposes.
Really weak class IMO. There's usually some low profile small school guys who emerge in the postseason process though.

I would say Ben Koyack is the best prospect of the seniors, but that says more about the talent available than it does about him. He is a good athlete, but an underachiever when you look at how it translates into production. I like him to have a long career and be a solid piece of the puzzle for somebody, but likely in a complementary #2 TE role and not as a featured attraction who's going to grab 50+ passes every season.

Maxx Williams has looked better to me than last season. I wouldn't say he's great or a lock first rounder. With him being a redshirt sophomore, I think it's somewhat unlikely that he'll be in the draft unless he gets strong word that he's a lock top 50 pick.

TE isn't a big focus for me, but of the guys I have seen this year, I think Hunter Henry from Arkansas might be the best pro prospect in college. He is a true sophomore and won't be eligible until 2016. Pharaoh Brown from the 2016 class was doing some good things before his gruesome injury. OJ Howard hasn't produced on par with his hype yet.

Overall, I would say we've been spoiled with the exceptional TE talent in the last few drafts. I hope you stocked up then because the cupboard looks bare this year. If I were in need of a TE, I would just pay for Ebron or Eifert instead of banking on a mediocrity from the current class. Having said that, I'm eager to see what names emerge from the Senior Bowl and combine. TE is a position where it's easy for some decent prospects to fly under the radar with weak college production due to scheme/usage.

 
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Here's my rough first look at this year's WR stats. These are the 20 guys with the best numbers (whether or not they're draft eligible).

BP/g Prod% Player Team

3.3 51% Rashard Higgins Colorado State
This is going to be an interesting one to follow because he's putting up huge stats, but my sense is that he's a product of his QB more than anything. Garrett Grayson is having a phenomenal year and I'm really eager to see if he gets a Senior Bowl invite and winds up a high pick or if he's just a David Fales type of guy who thrives in college, but doesn't necessarily have the tools that NFL teams covet. I could see his draft position falling anywhere in the range from Garoppolo-Fales. Maybe a little higher if he blows up in postseason workouts.

Qualitatively, it seems to me like your list overvalues deep threats and undervalues possession receivers. I think we've had this discussion in the past. Players who have a dynamic teammate and are heavily utilized on screen passes seem unjustly punished. I think Marqise Lee was an example from previous years. This year you've got lots of guys listed there who excel at running vertical routes, but aren't necessarily that good at anything else. You did hit two of the genuine big names (Cooper and White) and another guy (Coleman) who is really coming on strong, albeit in a gimmicky offense. I wrote him up recently and saw some similarities with Golden Tate.

I do not see great depth in this WR class, but have seen a couple somewhat under-the-radar guys who might have decent NFL ceilings. Vince Mayle is having a big year at Washington State and has the big body that teams like. He's over-aged and I don't know if he really moves well enough to thrive at the next level. I'd put him down as an intriguing name to watch though. Whether you consider him a RB or WR, Tyreek Hill is an important wild card in the draft because of his insane speed matched with decent football skills. The NFL loves speed and Hill is maybe the fastest football player in the world right now, with genuine Olympic level burners. If he decides to come out, it's hard to envision NFL personnel people not falling in love and drafting him high after he rips a 4.2 at the combine.

 
As for the RBs, this is a list of every 2015-eligible back that I've written about this season:

RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (2015)
RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State (2015)
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn (2015)
RB Javorious Allen, USC (2015)
RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana (2015)
RB Mike Davis, South Carolina (2015)
RB Michael Dyer, Louisville (2015)
RB DJ Foster, Arizona State (2015)
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin (2015)
RB Johnathan Gray, Texas (2015)
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia (2015)
RB Duke Johnson, Miami (FL) (2015)
RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan State (2015)
RB Shock Linwood, Baylor (2015)
RB Byron Marshall, Oregon (2015)
RB Kevin Parks, Virginia (2015)
RB Josh Robinson, Mississippi State (2015)
RB TJ Yeldon, Alabama (2015)

I think this position group is easily the strength of the 2015 draft class. Lots of depth and variety. Players of all styles. Intriguing names all the way from the first round down to the day three guys. Definitely a loaded class. With Gurley injured and Gordon looking awesome, I would say Melvin is the #1 guy there.

Of the underclassmen, I think Nick Chubb is the best player at QB/RB/WR/TE in the 2016-2017 classes. He would be a first round pick if he declared this year and he's already good enough to start in the NFL tomorrow. Shame he's going to take two more years of unnecessary mileage and injury risk in college.

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.
No one who compares Gordon to Charles references the speed. It's the similar running styles. There are some cuts he makes that's very Charles-esque. One other RB I see in him is Joique Bell when he gets really compact especially in traffic. From an athletic/physical/measureables standpoint, he should test similar to David Wilson and Jerick McKinnon. Both those guys aren't "fast" but are plenty explosive.
I think you misunderstood, my fault. I meant that although plenty of guys are making understandable Charles comparisons for the reasons you gave, hearing "Charles" over and over again is evoking a speed comparison among the generic dynasty owner population that hasn't seen much film.
It's not invoking a speed comparison. Only those who don't watch Charles would think that. Charles is more than a "speed" back. He's not Chris Johnson. He has better vision and better cutting ability. If it's simply a speed comparison, people would be using Darren McFadden instead.

 
Anyone mind sharing some TEs I should be keeping an eye on? It seems like an awful TE class based on the lack of buzz, especially for FF purposes.
Really weak class IMO. There's usually some low profile small school guys who emerge in the postseason process though.

I would say Ben Koyack is the best prospect of the seniors, but that says more about the talent available than it does about him. He is a good athlete, but an underachiever when you look at how it translates into production. I like him to have a long career and be a solid piece of the puzzle for somebody, but likely in a complementary #2 TE role and not as a featured attraction who's going to grab 50+ passes every season.

Maxx Williams has looked better to me than last season. I wouldn't say he's great or a lock first rounder. With him being a redshirt sophomore, I think it's somewhat unlikely that he'll be in the draft unless he gets strong word that he's a lock top 50 pick.

TE isn't a big focus for me, but of the guys I have seen this year, I think Hunter Henry from Arkansas might be the best pro prospect in college. He is a true sophomore and won't be eligible until 2016. Pharaoh Brown from the 2016 class was doing some good things before his gruesome injury. OJ Howard hasn't produced on par with his hype yet.

Overall, I would say we've been spoiled with the exceptional TE talent in the last few drafts. I hope you stocked up then because the cupboard looks bare this year. If I were in need of a TE, I would just pay for Ebron or Eifert instead of banking on a mediocrity from the current class. Having said that, I'm eager to see what names emerge from the Senior Bowl and combine. TE is a position where it's easy for some decent prospects to fly under the radar with weak college production due to scheme/usage.
Maxx Williams looks the same to me. :shrug: I'd say he'll probably win the Mackey Award easily.

After Maxx Williams, the best TE in college right now plays in the ACC and will be my #1 TE over Williams and Henry in 2016 I have no idea how he didn't make it as a semifinalist for the Mackey but 3 other ACC TEs did: Ben Koyack, Clive Walford, Nick O'Leary. Though, I'm glad. He gets to stay under the radar.

Walford looks like a promising Senior. Can make some acrobatic catches at times. Kivon Cartwright was my top Senior, but he got injured early on and might get a medical redshirt this season.

 
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The only reason you don't like Maxx Williams is because I like him much more than you. Otherwise, you probably don't even have a strong opinion on him. Lee/Beckham, Robinson/Parker part deux.
The only reason you like Koyack so much is because you probably don't watch enough TEs. It's ok to like Koyack a lot. If you think he's better than Maxx Williams, then he's got to be better than at least 5-10 other TEs. Please name those 5-10 TEs.
I don't like Maxx Williams because I don't think he's a special talent. No other reason. You have said he has a chance to be a better prospect than Ebron. I don't see that. He's not a bad player, but he's fairly ordinary. Tall with some speed, but not a great athlete. Doesn't make special plays. The only thing that stands out about him is his stats. I think you've railed against "box score scouting" in the past, so it's a little ironic that you're using production as evidence against Koyack and in support of Williams.

There's some pretty extensive footage of Koyack's 2013 season on YouTube. He spends a lot of time as a blocker. If you want to paint that as a negative, you could do so. On the other hand, maybe they keep him in as a blocker because he's good at it? Blocking is part of the job description for a traditional in-line TE and if he excels in that department then I don't think it's a negative. It might actually boost his draft stock. His lack of production to date is forgivable considering that he had Tyler Eifert and Troy Niklas to contend with. Two guys who went top 52 in the draft. No shame in losing snaps or targets to players of that caliber. When Koyack has been given a chance to make plays as a receiver, he has generally acquitted himself well. Some examples below:

1:04 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=1m4s

4:39 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=4m39s

6:27 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=6m27s

8:12 - http://youtu.be/TahgK8UXnvw?t=8m12s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIFuyVjXVVw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8biKI2Jrk0o

I don't think Koyack is some kind of a monster talent. Just a solid prospect with obvious NFL talent. He'll get picked next year. The only question is how high. I would say middle rounds, but there are still some important data points remaining (combine and senior year performance will influence his draft slot). I don't have to think he's the next Jimmy Graham to think he's better than Maxx Williams though. That kind of reasoning only makes sense if I accept the idea that Williams is some kind of a great prospect in his own right, which I don't. I think he's just another mediocre talent that you've latched onto and overrated. You've done that quite often in the past (Jarius Wright, Antonio Andrews, countless others that I've forgotten). If I think Williams is mediocre and Koyack is slightly better than mediocre, that doesn't mean I "like Koyack so much."

I would say Koyack is a good candidate in really deep TE-premium devy drafts. I would not take him in a one round draft. I do think he looks like an NFL player though and will have a long career in the league, even if it's never as a top shelf star player or even a Dennis Pitta type. He has the frame, he can block, he moves pretty well, and his hands are solid. I think teams will value his skill set.
You were dead wrong on Maxx Williams. Just admit it.

Williams has produced 25% of his team receiving yards and 64% of his team receiving TDs so far this season. Rob Gronkowski was 29%/67% his final season.

The thing with Williams is that the tape matches up with the production. This year and last.

 
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The more I look at your metric here the more I like it Z. I think it does everything mine does, and improves on it. Any idea how far back there's first down data?
I get the data from cfbstats, which only goes back to 2008. Not sure if anyone else has data going farther back.

I like this RB metric in part because it's nice and simple. If I was trying to be maximally predictive I'd make some adjustments, like giving first downs less weight relative to TDs & 20-yard carries (the simple version that I've posted effectively gives first downs more weight than the other stats, since first downs are more common so they have a wider spread).

Here's my rough first look at this year's WR stats. These are the 20 guys with the best numbers (whether or not they're draft eligible).

BP/g Prod% Player Team

3.3 51% Rashard Higgins Colorado State
This is going to be an interesting one to follow because he's putting up huge stats, but my sense is that he's a product of his QB more than anything. Garrett Grayson is having a phenomenal year and I'm really eager to see if he gets a Senior Bowl invite and winds up a high pick or if he's just a David Fales type of guy who thrives in college, but doesn't necessarily have the tools that NFL teams covet. I could see his draft position falling anywhere in the range from Garoppolo-Fales. Maybe a little higher if he blows up in postseason workouts.

Qualitatively, it seems to me like your list overvalues deep threats and undervalues possession receivers. I think we've had this discussion in the past. Players who have a dynamic teammate and are heavily utilized on screen passes seem unjustly punished. I think Marqise Lee was an example from previous years. This year you've got lots of guys listed there who excel at running vertical routes, but aren't necessarily that good at anything else. You did hit two of the genuine big names (Cooper and White) and another guy (Coleman) who is really coming on strong, albeit in a gimmicky offense. I wrote him up recently and saw some similarities with Golden Tate.

I do not see great depth in this WR class, but have seen a couple somewhat under-the-radar guys who might have decent NFL ceilings. Vince Mayle is having a big year at Washington State and has the big body that teams like. He's over-aged and I don't know if he really moves well enough to thrive at the next level. I'd put him down as an intriguing name to watch though. Whether you consider him a RB or WR, Tyreek Hill is an important wild card in the draft because of his insane speed matched with decent football skills. The NFL loves speed and Hill is maybe the fastest football player in the world right now, with genuine Olympic level burners. If he decides to come out, it's hard to envision NFL personnel people not falling in love and drafting him high after he rips a 4.2 at the combine.
You're right that the team-adjusted stats (like pct of team's passing yards) tend to hurt receivers who are teammates with other good receivers (though not Lee - he was the top WR in the country in 2012 by my numbers). That's especially true at this stage, where I don't have yards per target data yet. On the other hand, team-adjusted stats also help prevent receivers with a good QB (or a good offensive system) from being overrated. Higgins' production as a percentage of his team's passing offense is 6th in the country - he has accounted for 45% of Colorado State's passing yards, 53% of their passing touchdowns, and 55% of their 25+ yard passes.

My numbers do tend to favor deep threats over possession receivers. But there are other ways to do well in these numbers, including being a red zone threat and breaking big plays with YAC. And being a complete receiver who runs all sorts of routes, or a receiver who makes plays on screens, tends to help a player's numbers compared to merely being a deep threat. (That will be even more true if Greg Peshek publishes his WR stats again and I get to incorporate those numbers.)

 
Do some of you seriously not understand how fast Gordon is? Quite shocking to say the understatement of the year. The tape should show it, but wait for the combine I guess.
His speed is about the only thing about him that's overhyped. Probably because the Charles comparison gets thrown around so much. He gets caught from behind. He's fast, but he doesn't have elite long speed.
No one who compares Gordon to Charles references the speed. It's the similar running styles. There are some cuts he makes that's very Charles-esque. One other RB I see in him is Joique Bell when he gets really compact especially in traffic. From an athletic/physical/measureables standpoint, he should test similar to David Wilson and Jerick McKinnon. Both those guys aren't "fast" but are plenty explosive.
I think you misunderstood, my fault. I meant that although plenty of guys are making understandable Charles comparisons for the reasons you gave, hearing "Charles" over and over again is evoking a speed comparison among the generic dynasty owner population that hasn't seen much film.
It's not invoking a speed comparison. Only those who don't watch Charles would think that. Charles is more than a "speed" back. He's not Chris Johnson. He has better vision and better cutting ability. If it's simply a speed comparison, people would be using Darren McFadden instead.
Charles also runs with far better power than he's given credit for. He is surprisingly powerful for his size and able to pick up tough yards. He isn't just a speed back, though many seem to portray him as such.
 
The more I look at your metric here the more I like it Z. I think it does everything mine does, and improves on it. Any idea how far back there's first down data?
I get the data from cfbstats, which only goes back to 2008. Not sure if anyone else has data going farther back.

I like this RB metric in part because it's nice and simple. If I was trying to be maximally predictive I'd make some adjustments, like giving first downs less weight relative to TDs & 20-yard carries (the simple version that I've posted effectively gives first downs more weight than the other stats, since first downs are more common so they have a wider spread).
The adjustment I'd most like to make is to normalize every carry to account for the quality of defense -- and make it recursive to account for the quality of RBs a defense faced, etc. But the time it would take to go back and make that doable is bigger than I can take on today.

I've got a crude regression to the mean built into my metrics for low-volume guys already, but that could be improved as well.

But overall, I think simple works just fine. Mine's even simpler than yours and it more or less works for everyone.

 

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