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This post will be a bit boring to most, except the real Tennis buffs and even they might find it tough
In summary Mens Tennis has enjoyed a fantastic 9 year stretch with only 3 guys winning all the slams, with the exception of 1 each to Murray & Del Potro.
Where is the next big name coming from?
History dictates that champions, and I'll loosely define that as 3 or more Slams, win their first big one by the age of 21 or in the 2nd tier at least have appeared in one by that age. Guys with 3 or more slam winners of the modern era have ALWAYS appeared in a Grand Slam final at 21 years of age or younger.
That brings us to the up and comers, of which there are very, very few.
Currently there are only 2 men at 21 or under in the top 50, 4 in the 100 and 6 in the top 150.
Grigor Dmitrov and Andrey Kuznetsov both will be 22 by the time the next slam rolls around, so we are down to 4.
3 Americans and Bernard Tomic of Australia.
Tomic is ranked 43rd in the world, has done well at grand slams including a Quarterfinal at Wimbledon in 2011 and the 4th round at the Australian Open in 2012. He has the game, but not the mentality right now. The pressure on this kid in Australia is extremely high with just about every Australian "great" tearing shreds off the kid for some less than 100% efforts.
Ryan Harrison is ranked 62nd, but has yet to make it past the 2nd round in any grandslam, despite 11 appearances
Denis Kudla is ranked 136th and has only appeared in 2 slams getting knocked out in R1. His 5 11 height will be a disadvantage
Jack Sock is ranked 149th and after getting wildcards for the last 3 US opens, made it through to the 3rd round last year beating good players in Florian Mayer and Cipolla of Italy and went down to a top 10 player in Almagro. He hasn't appeared in any other slam. He did win the US Open Mixed doubles final in 2011.
Of these only Tomic looks like a potential champion and he is mentally fragile at the moment.
The reports from the junior ranks is that there are no big names coming either.
Essentially the top 4 have it for themselves or we are going to get a ton of 1 & 2 slam champions for awhile until the next big thing comes along in 6-10 years time, unless Tomic, Harrison, Kudla or Sock get their act together NOW.
Now the stats:
Federer - 17 Slams, 1st one at 21
Sampras - 14 Slams, 1st one at 19
Borg - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18
Nadal - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18 or 19
Connors - 8 Slams, 1st one at 21
Lendl - 8 Slams, 1st one at 24, but did appear in 4 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 21 - This is the potential Murray could have
Agassi - 8 Slams, 1st one at 22, but did appear in 3 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 20 years old
McEnroe - 7 Slams, 1st one at 20
Wilander - 7 Slams, 1st one at 19
Becker - 6 slams, 1st one at 17
Edberg - 6 Slams, 1st one at 19
Djokovic - 5 Slams, 1st one at 20
Courier - 4 Slams, 1st one at 20
Kuerten - 3 Slams, 1st one at 20
Murray - Like Lendl lost his first 4, appearing in his first final at age 21 before winning at his first, and only to date, at 25.
Del Potro won his first and only slam at 20, but is now 25 himself
Of the other current top players, Tsonga appeared in his only final at age 22, Berdych 25 and Ferrer hasn't even got that far.
None of the others look likely to be anything more than a 1 slam guy.
Guys with 1 or 2 slams to their name like Kafelnikov, Rafter, Ivansevic, Costa, Ferrero, Gaudio and Johannsson all won their first (and only in some cases) older than 21
Lots of guys have lost only 1 slam since the turn of the century with only Phillippousis and Soderling losing twice and not going on with it.
The last 3 or more slam winner I can find who started later was at the beginning of the open era in Guillermo Vilas in the 70s who won 4 slams and only appeared in his first final at 22.
Sure the French open may throw up some pure clay courters like Muster, Gomez, Bruguera, Gaudio etc, but the Champs do better than that.
It's depressing to those of us who are going to miss Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and maybe even Murray, but at least the betting markets will be more open for a few years.
Anyone seen a guy who may make history and buck this almost 40 year trend? or seen a young kid that has future champion written all over him?
In summary Mens Tennis has enjoyed a fantastic 9 year stretch with only 3 guys winning all the slams, with the exception of 1 each to Murray & Del Potro.
Where is the next big name coming from?
History dictates that champions, and I'll loosely define that as 3 or more Slams, win their first big one by the age of 21 or in the 2nd tier at least have appeared in one by that age. Guys with 3 or more slam winners of the modern era have ALWAYS appeared in a Grand Slam final at 21 years of age or younger.
That brings us to the up and comers, of which there are very, very few.
Currently there are only 2 men at 21 or under in the top 50, 4 in the 100 and 6 in the top 150.
Grigor Dmitrov and Andrey Kuznetsov both will be 22 by the time the next slam rolls around, so we are down to 4.
3 Americans and Bernard Tomic of Australia.
Tomic is ranked 43rd in the world, has done well at grand slams including a Quarterfinal at Wimbledon in 2011 and the 4th round at the Australian Open in 2012. He has the game, but not the mentality right now. The pressure on this kid in Australia is extremely high with just about every Australian "great" tearing shreds off the kid for some less than 100% efforts.
Ryan Harrison is ranked 62nd, but has yet to make it past the 2nd round in any grandslam, despite 11 appearances
Denis Kudla is ranked 136th and has only appeared in 2 slams getting knocked out in R1. His 5 11 height will be a disadvantage
Jack Sock is ranked 149th and after getting wildcards for the last 3 US opens, made it through to the 3rd round last year beating good players in Florian Mayer and Cipolla of Italy and went down to a top 10 player in Almagro. He hasn't appeared in any other slam. He did win the US Open Mixed doubles final in 2011.
Of these only Tomic looks like a potential champion and he is mentally fragile at the moment.
The reports from the junior ranks is that there are no big names coming either.
Essentially the top 4 have it for themselves or we are going to get a ton of 1 & 2 slam champions for awhile until the next big thing comes along in 6-10 years time, unless Tomic, Harrison, Kudla or Sock get their act together NOW.
Now the stats:
Federer - 17 Slams, 1st one at 21
Sampras - 14 Slams, 1st one at 19
Borg - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18
Nadal - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18 or 19
Connors - 8 Slams, 1st one at 21
Lendl - 8 Slams, 1st one at 24, but did appear in 4 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 21 - This is the potential Murray could have
Agassi - 8 Slams, 1st one at 22, but did appear in 3 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 20 years old
McEnroe - 7 Slams, 1st one at 20
Wilander - 7 Slams, 1st one at 19
Becker - 6 slams, 1st one at 17
Edberg - 6 Slams, 1st one at 19
Djokovic - 5 Slams, 1st one at 20
Courier - 4 Slams, 1st one at 20
Kuerten - 3 Slams, 1st one at 20
Murray - Like Lendl lost his first 4, appearing in his first final at age 21 before winning at his first, and only to date, at 25.
Del Potro won his first and only slam at 20, but is now 25 himself
Of the other current top players, Tsonga appeared in his only final at age 22, Berdych 25 and Ferrer hasn't even got that far.
None of the others look likely to be anything more than a 1 slam guy.
Guys with 1 or 2 slams to their name like Kafelnikov, Rafter, Ivansevic, Costa, Ferrero, Gaudio and Johannsson all won their first (and only in some cases) older than 21
Lots of guys have lost only 1 slam since the turn of the century with only Phillippousis and Soderling losing twice and not going on with it.
The last 3 or more slam winner I can find who started later was at the beginning of the open era in Guillermo Vilas in the 70s who won 4 slams and only appeared in his first final at 22.
Sure the French open may throw up some pure clay courters like Muster, Gomez, Bruguera, Gaudio etc, but the Champs do better than that.
It's depressing to those of us who are going to miss Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and maybe even Murray, but at least the betting markets will be more open for a few years.
Anyone seen a guy who may make history and buck this almost 40 year trend? or seen a young kid that has future champion written all over him?