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Mens Tennis - Where is the next champion coming from? (1 Viewer)

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This post will be a bit boring to most, except the real Tennis buffs and even they might find it tough :nerd:

In summary Mens Tennis has enjoyed a fantastic 9 year stretch with only 3 guys winning all the slams, with the exception of 1 each to Murray & Del Potro.

Where is the next big name coming from?

History dictates that champions, and I'll loosely define that as 3 or more Slams, win their first big one by the age of 21 or in the 2nd tier at least have appeared in one by that age. Guys with 3 or more slam winners of the modern era have ALWAYS appeared in a Grand Slam final at 21 years of age or younger.

That brings us to the up and comers, of which there are very, very few.

Currently there are only 2 men at 21 or under in the top 50, 4 in the 100 and 6 in the top 150.

Grigor Dmitrov and Andrey Kuznetsov both will be 22 by the time the next slam rolls around, so we are down to 4.

3 Americans and Bernard Tomic of Australia.

Tomic is ranked 43rd in the world, has done well at grand slams including a Quarterfinal at Wimbledon in 2011 and the 4th round at the Australian Open in 2012. He has the game, but not the mentality right now. The pressure on this kid in Australia is extremely high with just about every Australian "great" tearing shreds off the kid for some less than 100% efforts.

Ryan Harrison is ranked 62nd, but has yet to make it past the 2nd round in any grandslam, despite 11 appearances

Denis Kudla is ranked 136th and has only appeared in 2 slams getting knocked out in R1. His 5 11 height will be a disadvantage

Jack Sock is ranked 149th and after getting wildcards for the last 3 US opens, made it through to the 3rd round last year beating good players in Florian Mayer and Cipolla of Italy and went down to a top 10 player in Almagro. He hasn't appeared in any other slam. He did win the US Open Mixed doubles final in 2011.

Of these only Tomic looks like a potential champion and he is mentally fragile at the moment.

The reports from the junior ranks is that there are no big names coming either.

Essentially the top 4 have it for themselves or we are going to get a ton of 1 & 2 slam champions for awhile until the next big thing comes along in 6-10 years time, unless Tomic, Harrison, Kudla or Sock get their act together NOW.

Now the stats:

Federer - 17 Slams, 1st one at 21

Sampras - 14 Slams, 1st one at 19

Borg - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18

Nadal - 11 Slams, 1st one at 18 or 19

Connors - 8 Slams, 1st one at 21

Lendl - 8 Slams, 1st one at 24, but did appear in 4 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 21 - This is the potential Murray could have

Agassi - 8 Slams, 1st one at 22, but did appear in 3 finals before his 1st win, the earliest at 20 years old

McEnroe - 7 Slams, 1st one at 20

Wilander - 7 Slams, 1st one at 19

Becker - 6 slams, 1st one at 17

Edberg - 6 Slams, 1st one at 19

Djokovic - 5 Slams, 1st one at 20

Courier - 4 Slams, 1st one at 20

Kuerten - 3 Slams, 1st one at 20

Murray - Like Lendl lost his first 4, appearing in his first final at age 21 before winning at his first, and only to date, at 25.

Del Potro won his first and only slam at 20, but is now 25 himself

Of the other current top players, Tsonga appeared in his only final at age 22, Berdych 25 and Ferrer hasn't even got that far.

None of the others look likely to be anything more than a 1 slam guy.

Guys with 1 or 2 slams to their name like Kafelnikov, Rafter, Ivansevic, Costa, Ferrero, Gaudio and Johannsson all won their first (and only in some cases) older than 21

Lots of guys have lost only 1 slam since the turn of the century with only Phillippousis and Soderling losing twice and not going on with it.

The last 3 or more slam winner I can find who started later was at the beginning of the open era in Guillermo Vilas in the 70s who won 4 slams and only appeared in his first final at 22.

Sure the French open may throw up some pure clay courters like Muster, Gomez, Bruguera, Gaudio etc, but the Champs do better than that.

It's depressing to those of us who are going to miss Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and maybe even Murray, but at least the betting markets will be more open for a few years.

Anyone seen a guy who may make history and buck this almost 40 year trend? or seen a young kid that has future champion written all over him?

 
Not a huge tennis fan, but whenever I've seen Milos Raonic play I've been impressed. He already has the A+ serve. The rest of his game is a B+, but he seems to have a great attitude and could make the jump to the top tier.

 
Jerzy Janowicz seems to have a big enough game that if he continues to develop, he could win the majors. 3 or more certainly be a stretch as 22 already. Has really jumped on the scene late 2012 after being a no one after a Finals run in the Paris Masters, has something started to click or couple tourney wonder? Really nice game though.Assuming Nadal comes back healthy, likely the next 3+ major winner isn't even on the radar yet. Healthy Djokovic/Nadal/Murray could easily take most if not all the majors for 4-6 years still. People love Grigor Dmitrov game so he could buck the trend if he really is 'baby Federer' but in a good way and not the way it always ended up for the guys called 'baby Jordan'. Tomic and Raonic have promise though I'm not sure I've seen much improvement the last couple years. Seems like what made them a threat to pull the upset 2 years ago is the same reasons and no more that they could today.If not one of those four guys, Del Potro, or Murray I don't think anyone else gets to 3+ for the next 8 years or so. Those four have the best basis for games to get to the next level for what I have seen, I don't think any of the Americans listed have a shot. Murray should get there, Del Potro could if he even can get back to the level he briefly had. Otherwise I think once the top heavy group starts slowing down, you'll have a bunch of one-two major winners that just aren't consistent enough to get to 3+.

 
Do the tennis buffs see the waning popularity of the sport as a case against the multi-slam champion or for it?

 
Do the tennis buffs see the waning popularity of the sport as a case against the multi-slam champion or for it?
Not sure it is waning from what I have heard. In the US, sure because there isn't the Sampras or Agassi for someone to dream of becoming and of course people would rather be LeBron James or Tom Brady anyway so you'll always get more of a lower tier of athlete in the sport from the elite gifted. But take China for example, when Na Li won her Major, participation and sales reportedly skyrocketed because it felt like the opening of a door there as the first one to win a major. There likely will be a boom of players from China in 10-15 years. Kind of how tennis is, the better players you have now, the more likely to have more people pick up a racket and have better players in the future. US is really hurting because Roddick and co couldn't continue what Sampras/Agassi/Courier continued from McEnroe/Connors and so forth. Anyway, to answer the question, it would be a case for it imo. Tennis will still get some elite talent that spurs the more popular sports (Nadal was really good at soccer for example) and if the field is a step below, those elite people will win a bunch.
 
'-jb- said:
Do the tennis buffs see the waning popularity of the sport as a case against the multi-slam champion or for it?
People like big household names.Federer has brought a ton of fans into the sport worldwide.Nadal to, albeit to a slightly lesser extent (due more to mediocre english than his play, which is excellent)Djokavic is priming up to be a recognized name... he is recognized within the tennis community.If there is a ton of parity and multiple winners, no one becomes recognizable and people don't follow.Someone generally emerges, and Del Potro is going to win slams in the future... but I think in the coming years you're going to see a lot of Murray/Nole/DelPo and Nadal is still young enough that if his knees do cooperate he has 2-3 more French Opens in him.Tennis has morphed into a game that teens are no longer going to dominate.. Nadal was the late great teenage player.You're going to see guys start winning around 23-25 now moving forward.
 
Just updating this as the French Open has started.

We now have 6 guys that are 21 or under men in the top 150.

The 4 mentioned in the OP:

Bernard Tomic has slid from 43rd to 61st, and is no chance at the French. He'll be lucky to win one round. We'll see where he's at after Wimbledon. I wouldn't get my hopes up.

He has 7 slams left until he turns 22.

Ryan Harrison has slid even further from 62nd to 92nd. He only has 4 slams left until he turns 22

Denis Kudla has jumped from 136th to 116th in the world and has already lost his first round match at the French. He has 5 more slams until he turns 22

Jack Sock has risen from 149th to 118th and made it through to the first round in the French. He has 7 slams until he turns 22.

The 2 new guys in the top 150 who are 21 or under are:

Jiri Vesely who is only 19 years of age. The ATP has no data on this guy, but he has won a couple of challenger clay court tournaments.

He's also had to win 3 qualifiers to make it to the first round of the French and gets to play the 16th seed, Kohlschreiber from Germany in the first round.

He has 10 grand Slams before he hits 22

Diego Schwartzman is ranked 129th, but is only 5 foot 7. He didn't make the main draw at the French. He has 5 more grand slams until he turns 22.

Still waiting for someone to be the next champ, or at least look like one.

 
it is extremely hard to envision someone winning one of the next seven majors that hasnt previously won. djoker is a really strong number one. nadal is in form, federer is still a very strong #3 and when murray comes back he can win any non clay tournament. barring multiple injuries no one in the field can beat two of those 4 players.

 
Here is a list of the top teenagers in the latest ATP world rankings, complied by Tennis Alternative.

164. Jiri Vesely (CZE) - 19 y.o.254. Dominic Thiem (AUT) - 19289. Nick Kyrgios (AUS) - 18320. Luke Saville (AUS) - 19325. Lucas Pouille (FRA) - 19357. Thiago Monteiro (BRA) - 18361. Mate Pavic (CRO) - 19365. Robin Kern (GER) - 18378. Christian Harrison (USA) - 18379. Bruno Sant'anna (BRA) - 19398. Jason Kubler (AUS) - 19401. Ji Sung Nam (KOR) - 19402. Bjorn Fratangelo (USA) - 19414. Adam Pavlasek (CZE) - 18443. Edoardo Eremin (ITA) - 19447. Oliver Golding (GBR) - 19467. Maxim Dubarenco (MDA) - 19471. Andres Artunedo Martinvarr (ESP) - 19490. Gianluigi Quinzi (ITA) - 17497. Joao Pedro Sorgi (BRA) - 19
 
Here is a list of the top teenagers in the latest ATP world rankings, complied by Tennis Alternative.

164. Jiri Vesely (CZE) - 19 y.o.254. Dominic Thiem (AUT) - 19289. Nick Kyrgios (AUS) - 18320. Luke Saville (AUS) - 19325. Lucas Pouille (FRA) - 19357. Thiago Monteiro (BRA) - 18361. Mate Pavic (CRO) - 19365. Robin Kern (GER) - 18378. Christian Harrison (USA) - 18379. Bruno Sant'anna (BRA) - 19398. Jason Kubler (AUS) - 19401. Ji Sung Nam (KOR) - 19402. Bjorn Fratangelo (USA) - 19414. Adam Pavlasek (CZE) - 18443. Edoardo Eremin (ITA) - 19447. Oliver Golding (GBR) - 19467. Maxim Dubarenco (MDA) - 19471. Andres Artunedo Martinvarr (ESP) - 19490. Gianluigi Quinzi (ITA) - 17497. Joao Pedro Sorgi (BRA) - 19
Thanks for that list

They are all way too low to even get into a major, let alone make the final

Although Nick Kyrgios did win his first round match. We'll see if he gets into the top 150 on that alone.

So far for the 21 and under guys, only Jack Sock and Ryan Harrison are still kicking and they have tough 2nd rounders.

Looks like I'll see where we are at here during Wimbledon or the US open.

 
it is extremely hard to envision someone winning one of the next seven majors that hasnt previously won. djoker is a really strong number one. nadal is in form, federer is still a very strong #3 and when murray comes back he can win any non clay tournament. barring multiple injuries no one in the field can beat two of those 4 players.
If history is any indication, to be a future champion they don't have to win, just appear in a major final before they turn 22.

 
it is extremely hard to envision someone winning one of the next seven majors that hasnt previously won. djoker is a really strong number one. nadal is in form, federer is still a very strong #3 and when murray comes back he can win any non clay tournament. barring multiple injuries no one in the field can beat two of those 4 players.
If history is any indication, to be a future champion they don't have to win, just appear in a major final before they turn 22.
well that's possible. Watch out for Dimitrov

having said that.. if there's a finalist that's not a member of the big 3/4 i would be much more likely to believe it would be a Tsonga/Byrdych/Ferrer/Del Potro type before a young gun.

unless some player make a djokavic 2011 type of leap soon it's just hard to envision new winners... that's just how amazingly good Rafa, Federer, Murray and Djokavic are

 
it is extremely hard to envision someone winning one of the next seven majors that hasnt previously won. djoker is a really strong number one. nadal is in form, federer is still a very strong #3 and when murray comes back he can win any non clay tournament. barring multiple injuries no one in the field can beat two of those 4 players.
If history is any indication, to be a future champion they don't have to win, just appear in a major final before they turn 22.
well that's possible. Watch out for Dimitrov

having said that.. if there's a finalist that's not a member of the big 3/4 i would be much more likely to believe it would be a Tsonga/Byrdych/Ferrer/Del Potro type before a young gun.

unless some player make a djokavic 2011 type of leap soon it's just hard to envision new winners... that's just how amazingly good Rafa, Federer, Murray and Djokavic are
Dimitrov is now 22 and cannot make this list.

He can win a couple of slams, but the way he plays I doubt it.

The age of the remaining men at Wimbledon:

25

26 (three guys, including Djokovic and Murray)

27

28

29 (two guys)

31 (three guys)

32

35

Djokovic is already a champion and Murray can be too given the criteria. Given that 9 or 10 of the remaining guys are older than Murray and Djokovic they will get plenty of opportunities over the next 2 years.

Jerzy Janowicz is only 22 and in the 4th round. Has been improving every year. Reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon last year and will do at least 1 round better here.

At 6 foot 8 I don't know what his upside is, but he will go close to the top 10 by the end of the year with a good showing at the US open (He's only defending a 1st round loss)

Del Potro at 24 still fits the criteria to be a future champ, but I don't think he can do it. If he wins 2 more slams he sill still be a "champion" under the existing framework

Tomic at 20 is the only young guy (21 and under) who looks like being anything right now. He still has 6 slams, including this one to make a grand slam final.

He can be temperamental, but there is no doubt he has the game to beat the best. The problem for him here at Wimbledon is that he has the hardest draw.

He's had to beat 2 seeds to get here (Querrey and Gasquet) and a former top 10er in James Blake.

Now he gets former finalist Berdych and then would have Djokovic in the quarters, then likely Ferrer/Del Potro before Murray in the final.

He doesn't have the consistency yet to get to the final, but he should go close to getting a seeding at future grand slams with his performance here (gains at least 170 points, more if he beats Berdych). That will help him avoid the kind of draw he got here.

 
Jerzy Janowicz is only 22 and in the 4th round. Has been improving every year. Reached the 3rd round at Wimbledon last year and will do at least 1 round better here.

At 6 foot 8 I don't know what his upside is, but he will go close to the top 10 by the end of the year with a good showing at the US open (He's only defending a 1st round loss)
Janowicz is still pretty far away from top 10. About 1400 short right now and a SF appearance gives 720 so basically two of those in the majors. Plus, if he isn't top 10 by Paris Masters, that's where he would be defending his 600 point result.

That said, I and have heard many tennis people that really like his upside. Many have commented he could grow to be top 10 and a Majors threat.

Even though 22 now, he's still really green. He's still really in year 1 of playing consistent ATP level matches.

Got the big serve many of the big men have but what really sets him apart from that mold seems to be he moves well for a 6'8" guy and he's got variety. Too many times those guys have a big serve and a big wing and if they can't pound you to death it's over. Janowicz has some nice variety like the drop shot and sometimes uses that stuff too much but again being so green, he should be learning when to use those variety shots as he gets more matches played.

Pretty good video of what he can do here

 
Kyrgios maybe beginning a rise that might see him make a final at 21 or younger.

US Open and the electric crowd may be the perfect stage for him too, he's really feeding off the energy

Maybe jnxed the kid, looked like he was rolling to an easy 2 set to none advantage and now struggling some.

 
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New York crowds at the Open are just embarrassing.
true. I can't even imagine what most of the rest of the world thinks. But on the other hand many of those euro/latin countries have soccer guy who gets into fights where people die... so at least we're just basspoles but no one dies.

 
Time for an update almost 10 years later.
Since 2013 we only have 8 unique grand slam champions.
This US open will give us our 9th and thats where it gets interesting

With Nadal at 22 Grand Slams and counting, Djokovic at 21 and counting and Federer likely stopping at 20, we have had no other guy get more than 3 Grand Slams.
Andy Murray lived up to the formula in the OP and almost was a champion.
He had 3 grand slam wins, an olympic gold, but lost 8 finals. If it wasn’t for the big 3 he would be a champion, but ultimately not good enough

Stanislas Wawrinka makes me edit it from 3 grand slams to 4 though. His first grand slam appearance and finals win were well after the age of 21. He finished with a 3-1 record in grand slam finals

Since 2013 and these 5 guys we have only had 3 other grand slam winners. Maran Cilic in 2014, Dominic Thiem in 2020 and Daniil Medvedev. None of them are close to champion consideration.

Of all the Grand slam losing finalists since 2013, none are going to be a champion. End of.

That brings us to the future, where we are still looking for our next champ
 
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We finally, finally, have a guy 21 and under in a grand slam final. His name is Carlos Alcaraz.
He therefore attracted my attention and the resurrection of this thread
If he wins his ascent to champion is almost certain. He still has 6 grand slams, including this US open final before he turns 22.
If he loses he can follow the Ivan Lendl, Andre Agassi and Andy Murray* route to champion unless he wins one of the next 5 slams.

Now thats not the end of this project. We have 7 other guys 21 and under in the top 100, the most for awhile.

Others thought that with the advance is science, professional development etc we would see mens champions come through later in life. Not so yet and im a firm believer of excellence coming through young.

Of the other 7 guys in the top 100 with potential
Chun-Hsin - Tseng (3 grand slams left) and Jiri Lehaka (4 slams left) haven’t done anything in slams so its almost impossible to follow the development timeline required.

5 left
Jack Draper and Brandon Nakashima still have 4 slams left and have made reasonable progress on the timeline reaching third and fourth rounds. They are not in the top 50 though so unless they make rapid improvement in 2023 it wont be them

3 left
Jannik Sinner is ranked 13th, but only has 3 slams left before hitting 22. He did however make 3 grand slam quarter finals this year and fourth round in the other. An even chance of being a potential champion
Lorenzo Musetti is ranked 30th and didn’t have a great 2022, but in 2021 he led Djokovic 2-0 in the french open and had to retire injured in the fifth. He has the game. He has five slams left to prove it.

The last guy is one we should keep our eye on. Holger Rune of Switzerland. Currently ranked 33rd. He still has a massivev9 grand slams to join our list. He reached the QF in the french and 3rd round of the US. His timeline indicates future stardom.

Get ready for a decade of Holger Rune vs Carlos Alcaraz...until the next guy comes along
 
Time for an update almost 10 years later.
Since 2013 we only have 8 unique grand slam champions.
This US open will give us our 9th and thats where it gets interesting

With Nadal at 22 Grand Slams and counting, Djokovic at 21 and counting and Federer likely stopping at 20, we have had no other guy get more than 3 Grand Slams.
Andy Murray lived up to the formula in the OP and almost was a champion.
He had 3 grand slam wins, an olympic gold, but lost 8 finals. If it wasn’t for the big 3 he would be a champion, but ultimately not good enough

Stanislas Wawrinka makes me edit it from 3 grand slams to 4 though. His first grand slam appearance and finals win were well after the age of 21. He finished with a 3-1 record in grand slam finals

Since 2013 and these 5 guys we have only had 3 other grand slam winners. Maran Cilic in 2014, Dominic Thiem in 2020 and Daniil Medvedev. None of them are close to champion consideration.

Of all the Grand slam losing finalists since 2013, none are going to be a champion. End of.

That brings us to the future, where we are still looking for our next champ
I think I watched one beat Tiafoe last night.
 

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