What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

How Early Can One Justify Taking Montee Ball? (1 Viewer)

B

bocksheesh

Footballguy
Looking at a number of Mock Drafts and tier projections, it's fairly clear the Top 5 RBs are Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, and Lacy. After that, it becomes a bit murky.

However, If you're drafting in the middle of the 1st round, based on VBD, you are looking at either a Jimmy Graham or one of the elite WRs.

But if you are someone that is determined to get a stud RB in the 1st Round, it looks like you're forced to either reach for a Marshawn Lynch or Montee Ball or gulp and take a WR/TE.

If you take a Montee Ball at 1.06, that's a reach. No doubt about it. But you're getting your guy.

So how early can one justify reaching for a Montee Ball (or Marshawn Lynch)?

 
6th.

ETA: I don't recommend it, and wouldn't do it, but I could justify it.

ETA #2: If I really wanted to be generous, I'd be willing shrug and tell somebody, "OK, I can see it -- good luck," any time after Peterson and McCoy are gone. I think that's irrationally optimistic, but I wouldn't internally mock them for it. People are too slavishly devoted to ADP early in the draft. :shrug:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's not a reach if you want him and don't think he'll last to your next pick. If you think about it, it's silly to pass on a player you want because his adp is 6-10 picks after yours.

 
You justify it if YOU think he is the next best player THIS year, and not whether the average of 8 million other people say where he should be drafted.

 
In a twelve team draft I was in Sunday, seven running backs were taken in the top eleven. I took him with the thirteenth pick overall because there was no way he would make it back to me. ADP be darned, I wanted somebody besides Zac Stacy or Frank Gore to be my top running back.

:banned:

 
Modog814 said:
It's not a reach if you want him and don't think he'll last to your next pick. If you think about it, it's silly to pass on a player you want because his adp is 6-10 picks after yours.
Click to expand...
This. A "reach" of less than a round is never a reach, especially if you can't trade picks.

 
RB-centric settings, I can see as early as 6th, even as high as 5th, if you really get yourself worked up. In those formats, you're gonna have to "reach" for him in the 2nd half of rd 1 if you really want him, because there's a good chance he won't fall to you in rd 2.

In a balanced format, there's no way I'm taking him over the big three stud QBs or at least four of the stud WRs.

 
As early as you want, man. Look at boards from year's past. Nothing ever lines up. You could take him 1.01 and be completely right. You never know. Way too much is made about APD and relative values. Take who you like whenever you want!

 
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Thats insane. Montee Ball has the best opportunity in fantasy football. People keep saying, "well he isn't all that talented, but he is in a great spot". Who says he isn't very talented? He looked great in college. He played well down the stretch last year. Why is everyone dismissing him as a player?

Again, I know these things don't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but he is a very powerful and explosive athlete.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You can justify taking him 1st overall. There aren't many RBs guaranteed the volume he is this year or in as good of a situation. I personally have him projected as the 5th best RB this year and 13th overall but I wouldn't think it was even remotely crazy if he went at any place in the 1st round.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SameSongNDance said:
You can justify taking him 1st overall. There aren't many RBs guaranteed the volume he is this year or in as good of a situation. I personally have him projected as the 5th best RB this year and 13th overall but I wouldn't think it was even remotely crazy if he went at any place in the 1st round.
Click to expand...
There aren't many RBs that can you make as good of a case for finishing at #1 overall.

 
I can see Ball as a 1st rounder, the question is, if you roll with Ball, when do you start picking up the other Bronco RBs? I figure if you're counting on the system/environment for a good bit of the guy's productivity, you'd better lock it in.

 
Don't get me wrong, I see the upside with Charles, I just have him lower because I think his points over career baseline were based on an outstanding situation which no longer exists in 2014, a near ideal schedule catching teams at the right time again and again, and a defense that gave him great opportunities in a lot of those games. I have him twelfth right now but it's mostly irrelevant since fifth, twelfth or ninety sixth all mean I simply won't own him in any format.

Forte had career highs in virtually every start and enjoyed his best weeks against Washington, against green bay, and with mccown. He does play green bay again this year, and he gets Dallas, too, but the other stuff has noticeably changed. In ppr I have him higher. In non ppr or half point ppr he's outside my top ten.

I also have aj green lower and Marshall higher than adp. It happens.

There's nothing wrong with picking guys based on the consensus, especially if you're new or not that good at this hobby, but for me I will take the guys I like in the order I like them and I hope you do the same.

Adp should be the result of people's preferences, not the source of them.

 
How early can I justify taking the guy replacing a stiff who was the #5 fantasy RB last year, and plays in a record setting offense?

Pretty dang early.

 
Modog814 said:
It's not a reach if you want him and don't think he'll last to your next pick. If you think about it, it's silly to pass on a player you want because his adp is 6-10 picks after yours.
Click to expand...
agreed
 
Took him 7th overall last night, and am perfectly happy with my decision. RB's dry up too fast to pass on one. He is more of a gamble than the consensus top 4, but in his situation, the upside is big.

 
crazylegs1 said:
Took him 7th overall last night, and am perfectly happy with my decision. RB's dry up too fast to pass on one. He is more of a gamble than the consensus top 4, but in his situation, the upside is big.
Click to expand...
I pick 7 as well, and will take him there if things go the way I expect them to in picks 1-6. RB's go heavy in my league, and I'm figuring Charles/McCoy/Peterson/Forte/Lacy will be long gone. I am not sold on any of the other RBs who will be around in the middle of the second, and there's no way he makes it back around to me when I pick again.

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
I'd take him ahead of lacy, and if you like him I think you can justify taking him with any pick in the first.
Click to expand...
I understand having him ranked as a top 5 player, but if you like him there, you should look to swap picks before you just take him with a top 6 pick.
 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
I'd take him ahead of lacy, and if you like him I think you can justify taking him with any pick in the first.
Click to expand...
I understand having him ranked as a top 5 player, but if you like him there, you should look to swap picks before you just take him with a top 6 pick.
 
Ilov80s said:
Kool-Aid Larry said:
I'd take him ahead of lacy, and if you like him I think you can justify taking him with any pick in the first.
Click to expand...
I understand having him ranked as a top 5 player, but if you like him there, you should look to swap picks before you just take him with a top 6 pick.
Click to expand...
well, that's fine and everything if you can trade picks, but I just mean in the simplest sense --- i wouldn't fault anyone for taking him with the first pick.

it's funny because all these guys shuffle around every year, but without fail the following year is supposed to finish just like the previous year when the predraft rankings come out.

 
Kool-Aid Larry said:
Ilov80s said:
Kool-Aid Larry said:
I'd take him ahead of lacy, and if you like him I think you can justify taking him with any pick in the first.
Click to expand...
I understand having him ranked as a top 5 player, but if you like him there, you should look to swap picks before you just take him with a top 6 pick.
Click to expand...
well, that's fine and everything if you can trade picks, but I just mean in the simplest sense --- i wouldn't fault anyone for taking him with the first pick.

it's funny because all these guys shuffle around every year, but without fail the following year is supposed to finish just like the previous year when the predraft rankings come out.
Click to expand...
Totally agree. I'm just saying that when you like a guy more than the "accepted" ranks say you should, it's always a good idea to try and get some added value from it. Even if it's just swapping round 1 and 2 to get to pick 3 spots earlier in round 2, it's worth it.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Freelove said:
People are too slavishly devoted to ADP early in the draft. :shrug:
Click to expand...
:goodposting:

If you like a guy and don't think he'll be there for your next pick, take him. The term "value" is irrelevant if he lives up to your expectations as you believe he will.
Click to expand...
Strongly agree. No telling how many players I missed out on that I really wanted because I was paying attention to his ADP but someone else wasn't.

 
I don't see it. I maybe wrong, but my thought has always been that you don't win your league in round 1 and 2, but certainly can lose it. no way would I take him over guys that are proven talents. #1 We aren't sure what his share of the carries will be and #2 can he handle a season and stay healthy. he has a lot of worn out tread after Wisconsin. There are safer picks and that is what I am after in round 1 and 2. I would take Lacy over ball all day long.

late 1st in a 12 teamer for me (ppr) or early 2nd.

 
Modog814 said:
It's not a reach if you want him and don't think he'll last to your next pick. If you think about it, it's silly to pass on a player you want because his adp is 6-10 picks after yours.
Click to expand...
I agree with this.

If he won't be there when you pick again, it isn't really a reach...because it's either take him or you don't get him (and who wants to rely on being able to make a trade you like after the fact?)

 
golfguy said:
I don't see it. I maybe wrong, but my thought has always been that you don't win your league in round 1 and 2, but certainly can lose it. no way would I take him over guys that are proven talents. #1 We aren't sure what his share of the carries will be and #2 can he handle a season and stay healthy. he has a lot of worn out tread after Wisconsin. There are safer picks and that is what I am after in round 1 and 2. I would take Lacy over ball all day long.

late 1st in a 12 teamer for me (ppr) or early 2nd.
Click to expand...
You can't lose your league in round 1 or 2. It hurts to miss in those rounds, but it can be made up for in other ways. The guys in the first 2 rounds have the highest upside and I want to get as much potential points as possible. If I miss, so be it. I will draft the depth and work the WW to try to recover. Even the safest players can bust or get hurt. After the top 5 RBs, Ball has the highest ceiling (probably has a higher potential than Forte even) so to me that's a guy I really want on my team.
 
bocksheesh said:
Looking at a number of Mock Drafts and tier projections, it's fairly clear the Top 5 RBs are Charles, McCoy, Peterson, Forte, and Lacy. After that, it becomes a bit murky.

However, If you're drafting in the middle of the 1st round, based on VBD, you are looking at either a Jimmy Graham or one of the elite WRs.

But if you are someone that is determined to get a stud RB in the 1st Round, it looks like you're forced to either reach for a Marshawn Lynch or Montee Ball or gulp and take a WR/TE.

If you take a Montee Ball at 1.06, that's a reach. No doubt about it. But you're getting your guy.

So how early can one justify reaching for a Montee Ball (or Marshawn Lynch)?
Click to expand...
I would take a wr if you are out of top 5...... Calvin even at 5 Charles,Mccoy,AP,Forte,Calvin,Demaryius,Lacy,Dez,Ajgreen,Marshall,Julio,Gio. I would go for a Demaryius,Dez and try to get Murray/Martin in the 2nd.... Really like Demarco this year. Could be top 5 if stays healthy.

 
I love Ball and not just because of his running skills. I think he will greatly benefit from Payton and I think Murray (if he stays healthy) is only RB in the same tier. Don't know why, but would take him ahead of Forte, so no reason why you could not take him sixth if you want RB. I think it all comes down to what kind of points you can find in later rounds for your other spots. You think Justin Hunter will have enormous year, so you don't need Calvin with sixth pick (not saying Hunter is a s good). That's how drafts work for me, if I can find value with wide receivers from later rounds, I'll concentrate on filling the spots that I can't fill later. Go for it!

 
If you're absolutely set on a first round RB instead of a WR, I would take him mid-first if Forte is gone. I have him ranked above Lacy. I can easily see Ball finishing Top 3 this year, especially since McCoy has mentioned the words "turf toe". Those words scare the crap out of me. In most formats I'd prefer a WR mid-first though, and I'd only be thinking about Ball around picks 10-12.

 
SameSongNDance said:
Freelove said:
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Incidentally, that's about when I'd be 100% comfortable taking him.

I can justify it a lot higher than that, though.
Click to expand...
Which RBs are you projecting to outperform Ball this year that you only feel comfortable taking him late 2nd? You'd rather have Murray, Ellington, Gio, Foster, Martin, Lynch, Bell?
Click to expand...
Lynch is a "boring, safe" pick, but he's more of a sure thing. I like Martin and DeMarco a lot, and they are going cheaper than Monte is (I do mostly auctions, not drafts). I don't want any of those other guys at their current ADP.

Ilov80s said:
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Thats insane. Montee Ball has the best opportunity in fantasy football.
Click to expand...
I understand that, but I am just not buying the hype on him. I don't think he will dominate the RB touches like many think he will, and it goes without saying that the Broncos offense isn't gonna be as ridiculous as last year. Call it a hunch or whatever you want, but as someone who does mostly auctions, the only guys I would consider paying $40 for are the top 5 or 6 WRs, the top 4 or 5 RBs, and Jimmy Graham. I don't like the idea of spending that much of my money on an unknown, even if he does have a tremendous opportunity staring him in the face.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ghost Rider said:
SameSongNDance said:
Freelove said:
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Incidentally, that's about when I'd be 100% comfortable taking him.I can justify it a lot higher than that, though.
Click to expand...
Which RBs are you projecting to outperform Ball this year that you only feel comfortable taking him late 2nd? You'd rather have Murray, Ellington, Gio, Foster, Martin, Lynch, Bell?
Click to expand...
Lynch is a "boring, safe" pick, but he's more of a sure thing. I like Martin and DeMarco a lot, and they are going cheaper than Monte is (I do mostly auctions, not drafts). I don't want any of those other guys at their current ADP.

Ilov80s said:
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Thats insane. Montee Ball has the best opportunity in fantasy football.
Click to expand...
I understand that, but I am just not buying the hype on him. I don't think he will dominate the RB touches like many think he will, and it goes without saying that the Broncos offense isn't gonna be as ridiculous as last year. Call it a hunch or whatever you want, but as someone who does mostly auctions, the only guys I would consider paying $40 for are the top 5 or 6 WRs, the top 4 or 5 RBs, and Jimmy Graham. I don't like the idea of spending that much of my money on an unknown, even if he does have a tremendous opportunity staring him in the face.
Click to expand...
Auction is a whole different beast.
 
SameSongNDance said:
Freelove said:
Ghost Rider said:
Late 2nd round, maybe.
Click to expand...
Incidentally, that's about when I'd be 100% comfortable taking him.

I can justify it a lot higher than that, though.
Click to expand...
Which RBs are you projecting to outperform Ball this year that you only feel comfortable taking him late 2nd? You'd rather have Murray, Ellington, Gio, Foster, Martin, Lynch, Bell?
Click to expand...
That question doesn't correspond to what I said.

I think he'll probably do well enough that I'd probably -- if no other elite slam-dunk values were left -- reach for him as early as the 1st/2nd round turn. And I wouldn't be shocked at that point to see him outscore some guys who had already gone. But I would not feel 100% comfortable doing so, mostly because I haven't seen enough of all the DEN backs that I'm comfortable knowing what roles they'll fill all the time. I assume that by mid-season, the lion's share of the touches will be going to the guy Peyton is most comfortable with in the offense...and I think it's most rational to believe that most signs point to that guy being Ball...but I won't pretend to be sure. :shrug:

But this game often forces you to make picks you're not 100% comfortable with if you hope to contend for titles.

ETA: But all that said, if someone had their own reasons to feel a lot more certain than I do that Ball's position atop the dogpile is unassailable, I wouldn't try to talk them out of picking him any time after #3 or so.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think he should go after thr proven studs (AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, Lacy, Calvin). I'm really struggling with taking Ball or Thomas.

 
Blick said:
I think he should go after thr proven studs (AP, Charles, McCoy, Forte, Lacy, Calvin). I'm really struggling with taking Ball or Thomas.
Click to expand...
I'd take Ball in standard scoring and Thomas in PPR (in fact, that's exactly what I did last night, from the 1.08, which shocked a couple of owners). I really don't think you can go wrong with either one in the 1st, though. First-rounders are all about floor and both of their floors are pretty darn high as long as #18's under center.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

ignatiusjreilly
How many first-round QBs will actually pan out?
Replies
12
Views
367
ignatiusjreilly
ignatiusjreilly
Scoresman
Drafting in leagues that draft QBs way too early
Replies
33
Views
919
Manster
Manster
Ministry of Pain
Jim Harbaugh vs Patrick Mahomes or How the West was Won
Replies
0
Views
140
Ministry of Pain
Ministry of Pain

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top