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The hype has gone too far! (Underrated guys whose value has disapp (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
We've all been there. You're targeting a guy as a sleeper, or at least as being undervalued, but then everyone else in your league starts thinking the same thing, and pretty soon they're no longer a value pick. It's hard to let go, because you saw his potential first, damn it! (The worst is when you first read someone touting one of your sleepers, you get excited because you see it as validation. Then by the time you read five more, you start to get that pit in your stomach).

Here are my candidates. Keep in mind that when I say a guy "no longer has value", I mean relative to what you pay for him. For example, I still think Sanders will have a good year; I'm just not sure you can sit back and wait for him to come to you anymore.

  • Brady -- everyone seems to be suddenly remembering he's still good.
  • Wilson -- between the great pre-season, the SI cover, and the memories of other QBs who have gone from game manager to stud, it just feels like he's getting his due
  • C. Patterson -- I'm not even sure how long it's been since he actually had value; he's been hyped since the end of the season
  • L. Green -- same deal, but I think he may have even crossed into overrated at this point. He still hasn't done anything, and he still has a HOFer in front of him.
  • Cooks -- I don't see any way you're stealing him anymore.
  • Michael -- another one who seems to be overrated. Dude is still No. 3 on the depth chart
  • J. Bell -- word is out that he may be supplanting Bush. It wouldn't shock me if his ADP overtakes Reggie's.
  • Ertz -- I really hope not, because I'm totally targeting him as my breakout candidate, but I've read one too many glowing reports.
  • Cunningham -- yet one more whose potential is limited by his place on the depth chart
  • Wheaton -- no longer undervalued; may be creeping into overrated territory
  • Sanders -- Welker concussion may have vaporized what was left of his value.
  • J. Hill -- last preseason game + "Thunder and Lightning" talk. Whereas you might have been able to draft him as a handcuff and end up with a usable week-to-week player, now that equation could be reversed.
 
Good idea for a post. I like to refer to it as the Steve McNair effect. A guy was so constantly talked about as being an underrated NFL QB that he actually ended up overrated.

 
The good thing about guys like these that end up losing value because they creep up drafts is that players who were previously ahead of them then slip to be values. Everyone wants the next Josh Gordon breakout player so they let Mike Wallace slip past them into WR3/4 territory as an example. Ertz is a popular breakout candidate, and will almost definitely be drafted ahead of Heath Miller which is crazy to me. While people are jockeying for Carlos Hyde, I'll go ahead and draft Fred Jackson and collect my points from the flex happily.

 
I disagree with Wilson, I think he's still underrated all things considered (even though in the past couple of weeks a lot of people have seemed to suddenly realise how stupidly underrated he's been for fantasy) and one thing I don't hear mentioned much about him is the confidence he will take from being a SB winning QB last year.

In answer to the OP question, for me it's Gerhart. I was really high on him a month or two

ago and he's probably still a decent RB2/3 kind of pick, but the more I think about him, the more I don't see the upside for fantasy. He'll get some volume but not many TDs in that offense, I think they'll spread the third down/receiving work around a bit more than we think and I wonder if we won't see a few more 18 carries for 60 yard type games with not much else. Honestly I think you can get 80-90% of Gerhart's production with Mark Ingram, going many rounds later.

 
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i just took wilson above rg3. in my earlier drafts, a few months ago, i took rg3 in the early 6th. then the 9th. no i pass on him in the 11th. crazy. sure, some of it is diversification but cmon...

 
PPR:

Gerhart Gerhart Gerhart

He'll wind up a Rb2/3 on that team losing passing reps to Todman and/or Robinson. Not a shot in hell I'd take him with an end of Round 3/Round 4 pick where I've seen him going recently.

 
One thing I should add is it obviously depends on your league. I could imagine guppy-infested leagues where Wilson and Brady never even got the chance to be undervalued because one is a SB-winning QB and the other is Tom Brady. I remember drafting Bradshaw after Brandon Jacbos the year he broke out, even though Bradshaw had been named the starter the week before (that league has since gotten a lot more competitive).

I think it comes down to when a point of view goes from being a sharp observation to suddenly being the conventional wisdom. And once that happens, the guy's no longer undervalued.

 
Romo is a good one. Loved getting him rd 11ish early in draft season. Now he's everyone's late QB of choice going rd6 or 7.

 
Patterson is the best example of this. He went in the 3rd round of my draft this weekend as a WR1.

On the flip side, Ertz and Green both went really late, both as TE2's.

I'd also agree on Cooks and Michael. Its crazy to me that in a redraft Cooks is often going ahead of Colston.

 
Craig_MiamiFL said:
PPR:

Gerhart Gerhart Gerhart

He'll wind up a Rb2/3 on that team losing passing reps to Todman and/or Robinson. Not a shot in hell I'd take him with an end of Round 3/Round 4 pick where I've seen him going recently.
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I read reports to the contrary earlier this summer. Has something changed?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000366227/article/toby-gerhart-will-be-workhorse-for-jaguars

Toby Gerhart will be 'workhorse' for Jaguars
It's nice when an NFL coach says exactly what the fans want to hear. Especially the fantasy football fans.

"Toby (Gerhart) will be our workhorse," Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch told the Florida Times-Union recently.

We have been projecting big numbers for Gerhart this year out of simple logic. The Jaguars want to run the ball plenty, and they don't have any other options. The Jaguars staff has confirmed Gerhart isn't going to be part of some committee. He's playing every down.

"Toby has the ability to do it all. He can catch it well. He can pass protect well, and he's going to be in the game a lot -- third down, base downs, short-yardage, passing downs," Fisch said.

Yup, that sounds like all the game situations possible. Fisch calls backups Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson "change of pace" backs, but they aren't likely to get in the mix too often unless Gerhart is hurt. My Around The League cohort Chris Wesseling has been saying for a while that Gerhart could lead the league in carries. It sounds like the Jaguars are on board.
 
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Because ff has exploded in recent years, the demand for analysis and breaking news has grown equally. That is compounded by the increasingly easy access to information with little or no delay. Anyone with a cellphone and any given sports app knows within minutes of injury and trade news. It just means that the gap in ff skill is narrowed and those of us who prospect ahead of the news are more likely to succeed. Its tough though because how many Christine Michaels can you roster? To more succinctly answer the OP, I'd say that adjusting to hype and going after guys off the radar is a fair response. I was advocating grabbing Allen Robinson over in his thread because he is out of sight and put of mind. When someone reaches for Ertz, with your league with Heath Miller.

 
ratbast said:
Romo seems a bit overrated as is Cutler from the "underrated hype" talk.
Click to expand...
I actually disagree with Romo. Don't get me wrong--I certainly loved when he was going in the 9-11th rounds--but I think he actually could still be solid value in the 6th-7th rounds. I don't have the current ADP lists in front of me--but just from my recent drafts--the typical qb's that seem to go in the 6th-7th rounds might be brady, cam, possibly ryan, cap...etc (I'm speaking re-draft here). When I look at the cowboys--and I see the division they play in (washington, phili..etc)--I see a team with a horrid defense that should play in lots of shootouts against potent offenses. I see the cowboys playing from behind a lot this season--which very easily could translate to a fantasy paradise for Romo. I absolutely would not be surprised if Romo ended up being the 4th-6th best fantasy qb this season--in that andrew luck-matthew stafford area.

 
travdogg said:
Patterson is the best example of this. He went in the 3rd round of my draft this weekend as a WR1.

On the flip side, Ertz and Green both went really late, both as TE2's.

I'd also agree on Cooks and Michael. Its crazy to me that in a redraft Cooks is often going ahead of Colston.
Click to expand...
I agree, Patterson is the best example of this.

 
travdogg said:
Patterson is the best example of this. He went in the 3rd round of my draft this weekend as a WR1.

On the flip side, Ertz and Green both went really late, both as TE2's.
Click to expand...
I kinda get this. In most leagues, you're only drafting one TE. You have to be all in on whoever you pick, as opposed to taking a flier on your WR5. I like Ertz, but the only way he ends up on my roster is if I miss out on some of the surer mid-tier options like Witten, Olsen or Pitta. Same deal with Reed.

 
zftcg said:
travdogg said:
Patterson is the best example of this. He went in the 3rd round of my draft this weekend as a WR1.

On the flip side, Ertz and Green both went really late, both as TE2's.
Click to expand...
I kinda get this. In most leagues, you're only drafting one TE. You have to be all in on whoever you pick, as opposed to taking a flier on your WR5. I like Ertz, but the only way he ends up on my roster is if I miss out on some of the surer mid-tier options like Witten, Olsen or Pitta. Same deal with Reed.
Click to expand...
I'm running out the Reed / Ertz combo and excited about that
 
chickensoup said:
The good thing about guys like these that end up losing value because they creep up drafts is that players who were previously ahead of them then slip to be values. Everyone wants the next Josh Gordon breakout player so they let Mike Wallace slip past them into WR3/4 territory as an example. Ertz is a popular breakout candidate, and will almost definitely be drafted ahead of Heath Miller which is crazy to me. While people are jockeying for Carlos Hyde, I'll go ahead and draft Fred Jackson and collect my points from the flex happily.
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Does that really happen?

I mean, sure, people watch for that guy, but it isn't like there are 12 of him so someone like Wallace slips a whole round because people are drafting the next big thingS. The minute one owner drafts Gordon, then Wallace is right back there as the BTA for the other 11 owners. For every owner that passes on a Wallace type to take a Gordon type later, that just means another Wallace type WR would be available in the round that the Gordon type gets taken in. So when Gordon goes, everyone who waited then grabs one of those WR's that slipped. So then they all got value as well.

I think Wallace in particular slips because he seems to lack any chemistry with Tannehill. People are just skeptical. He was actually everyone's bounce back special before training camps started. Then the reports started coming out saying that he still looked out of sync, so his stock cooled. If he's being drafted as a 3/4, it's because people think HE may only be a 3/4. So it isn't really about people just waiting on a sleeper. It's about them having doubts about the guy they are willing to pass on as well. So then the question perhaps should be about how Wallace is being valued, not the Gordon-type.

 
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