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Nick Foles vs Andrew Luck (1 Viewer)

Nick Foles didn't throw for 9+ YPA and a 13.5 TD/INT ratio by accident. The system sure helps. But you can say that about Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, etc.

Riley Cooper was also a "deep threat". From Week 5 on, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 14.6 vs 13.8 for DeSean Jackson. Now was that a product of Nick Foles? I'd have to say absolutely. Is Cooper separating deep just like Jackson? Most likely not.

 
Nick Foles didn't throw for 9+ YPA and a 13.5 TD/INT ratio by accident. The system sure helps. But you can say that about Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, etc.

Riley Cooper was also a "deep threat". From Week 5 on, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 14.6 vs 13.8 for DeSean Jackson. Now was that a product of Nick Foles? I'd have to say absolutely. Is Cooper separating deep just like Jackson? Most likely not.
I'm sure Safeties rolling over top of Jackson nearly every play had a little something to do with it. Let's see how effective a deep threat Copper is this year.
 
As a Foles owner in many leagues this question made me lol.

Luck >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Foles

Silly question really.

 
As a Foles owner in many leagues this question made me lol.

Luck >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Foles

Silly question really.
Foles averaged almost 6 ppg more than luck in my league. What makes this a silly question? In leagues like mine, that give 6 points for all TDs (passing and rushing) and that penalize -2 points for ints. Foles value is pretty high.

 
As a Foles owner in many leagues this question made me lol.

Luck >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Foles

Silly question really.
In real football maybe.

I'd say it is silly to imply Luck was/is better in FF. Not much of a debate at all.

 
Can you envision a non injury scenario where andrew luck is not an nfl starter in the next three years? Can you envision one for foles?

 
Two interceptions by Foles, one in that crazy Snow Bowl game, I saw that play, it was a fluke caused by the weather. As far I'm concerned he had just one real pick all year vs MIN.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned the addition of Sproles yet but he is a QB's best friend: 230+ receptions in 3 years with NO. He is all over the field, he opens things up for any offense, he can go deep (yes, he did it against the Eagles in fact, though Brees missed) and he helps prevent sacks, he is always there for his QB, always comes back for the ball if the QBs in trouble, a real piece of work.

Funny, "Foles `n Sproles", perfect.

 
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Foles was obviously the better fantasy quarterback last year, at least when healthy/starting. In some ways, this is a question to answer using Bayes Theorem.

In the 2012 offseason, we all felt very confident that Luck was the better fantasy quarterback. Then, Luck had a much better 2012 season than Foles, which reaffirmed this belief.

At that point, it would -- and should -- take something special out of Foles to change that stance. If Luck had a terrible first game and Foles had an excellent first game, that wouldn't be enough for most people. The sample size would be too small, and we know that in one game just about anything can happen.

If Foles was the better fantasy player for three straight seasons, then by the 2016 offseason, we would all have Foles over Luck in our fantasy rankings. That sample size would be more than large enough to override our prior belief.

So part of the question is what is the right sample size for us to switch gears.

In dynasty leagues, Luck had an ADP of QB13 in 2012, Foles QB29.

In 2013, Luck had an ADP of QB9, Foles QB39.

But last year, Luck averaged 21.0 FP/G, and Foles averaged 26.7 FP/G in 10 starts. Throw out the Cowboys game, and that number jumps to 28.9 in 9 starts.

So is that 8-point difference large enough to overcome our prior when it came in just 9 games? That's one way to summarize the question. I think reasonable people can differ on how to answer it.

 
I can see arguments both ways -- especially with Foles' weak schedule and the high-variance TD and INT totals driving his success.

But Foles has also been more accurate and taken only slightly more sacks (both defense-adjusted) too. In other words... Foles has been as good or better than Luck in all four measures that seem to drive QB success (across both years combined).

So, regardless of which guy is the better long-term bet, I do think the gap between the two is entirely unjustified at this point. Especially given that Foles appears to be in an excellent and sustainable situation.

ETA: corrected for mistake on sack data.

 
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jurb26 said:
jesseasi said:
Lets take a closer look at how DeSean Jackson was used and how he will affect Nick Foles.

Several posters here have wanted to point out how the loss of DeSean Jackson will hurt Foles. I don't think so....

DeSean Jackson - career best years - 82-1332-9.

So did DeSean Jackson make Nick Foles? Or did Nick Foles make DeSean Jackson? Before Nick Foles - Jackson's best year was 62-1156-9. So who is the reason DeSean Jackson caught 20 more balls and 200 yards more than he ever has in his career? Don't tell me Chip Kelly - we have already noted how this offense is super RUN happy - and Chip Kelly does not play QB - this is all on Nick Foles.
Before Foles Jackson never played a full season other than his rookie year. I think that has more to do with the numbers than Foles. Per game, Jackson had 2 seasons just as good, perhaps better than his season with Foles.
He had career high's in rec/gm and yds/gm in '13 and the only year he topped his TDs/gm was back in '09. That was the only year close to what he put up in '13; and in 2009 the Eagles were 10th in the league in pass attempts and only 27th in the league in '13.2009 4.1 rec/gm 77.1 yds/gm 0.600 TD/gm

2013 5.1 rec/gm 83.3 yds/gm 0.563 TD/gm

You could argue '09 was better going strictly by the TDs, but I don't see a 2nd season that was close than '13.
The problem with this is Jackson missed 1.5 games in 09, he didn't play at all the second half vs. Wash in a game. His per game average that year was 79.7/0.62. Also, he didn't play past the 1st quarter in another game in 10 vs. Atl, where he was tearing them to pieces. So his per game numbers look like 79.6/0.45.Call it nitpicking if you want but this notion that Foles made Jackson is absurd IMO. Even if you want to say his 13 season was better, it's clearly not substantially better to the point that we can say Foles made Jackson. At worst, he has 2 other season in the same vicinity. From my perspective, 09 was clearly the best season. 10 and 13 are close with 13 getting a slight edge. It's worth noting that Jackson also scored a TD on the ground in both 09 and 10. So, from a fantasy standpoint both seasons were better per game.

One last thing to point out, as this really is about Foles not Jackson. Jackson was the clear leader in targets for Philly last year, 126. The next closest was Cooper at 84, then McCoy at 65. It's pretty clear that Jackson was the focal point when Philly passed the ball. I'm not sure how losing a guy who was your clear focal point and a proven producer, for multiple seasons, is a good thing for any offense. Maybe I'm just super critical, though.
Just some more context to consider

ShaHBucks said:
Cooper's numbers in games where Foles played most of the snaps in 2013:

GMS TRGS RECS YDS YPR YPT TDS11 5.45 3.36 66.27 19.70 12.15 0.64I expect his numbers to go down across the board except for the trgs and recs, but not drastically. He's still looks like a cheap WR2-3. He's ADP was in the 50s during my last startup draft. He'll likely get you 1000yds, 7-10+ TDs.Desean Jackson's #s w/Foles:

GMS TRGS RECS YDS YPR YPT TDS11 7.09 4.82 79.64 16.53 11.23 0.64Jackson's ADP is probably fair. I just wanted to point out what kind of discount Cooper is with the way Foles spreads the ball around. The production was closer than you'd think, even with Jackson having outliner games like vs Minn w/16 TRGS. His TDS should regress.Optimistically, this offense can mirror GB's with Rodgers during the Jennings and Jordy days. Ertz can play Findley. He'll be just as disappointing IMO. He has better hands than Findley, but he might be just as overrated of an athlete in the FF community. Maclin could be James Jones + Donald Driver. There are targets to go around, especially when your QB is throwing near 10.5 AY/A. I doubt Chip passes as much as GB did, but the upside is there for all of these guys to catch 50-70 balls and be weekly FF starters in 2014 barring injury. At least it'll be fun to watch.

Ertz:

Code:
GMS	 TRGS	 RECS	 YDS	 YPR	 YPT	 TDS11       4.18	 2.82	 32.45	 11.52	 7.76	 0.36
Avant:
Code:
GMS	 TRGS	 RECS	 YDS	 YPR	 YPT	 TDS11       4.91	 2.18	 23.09	 10.58	 4.70	 0.09
Avant was awful in this offense. A lot of people are assuming one of these guys (Maclin or Cooper) will have to sacrifice a lot. I don't agree. Maclin can slide in nicely and do a lot better by just doing more with his targets. There is also the slight chance Chip dials up the passing attempts to the 30-35 range. I doubt it though.
 
Two interceptions by Foles, one in that crazy Snow Bowl game, I saw that play, it was a fluke caused by the weather. As far I'm concerned he had just one real pick all year vs MIN.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned the addition of Sproles yet but he is a QB's best friend: 230+ receptions in 3 years with NO. He is all over the field, he opens things up for any offense, he can go deep (yes, he did it against the Eagles in fact, though Brees missed) and he helps prevent sacks, he is always there for his QB, always comes back for the ball if the QBs in trouble, a real piece of work.

Funny, "Foles `n Sproles", perfect.
That was a hellova play by whoever intercepted the pass. DJax should have fought for that ball IMO. Avant was in Desean's ear after that play.

 
You can replace Jackson's raw totals in today's game. My concern, which no one points out, is how efficient Jackson was last year.

 
As a Foles owner in many leagues this question made me lol.

Luck >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Foles

Silly question really.
Foles averaged almost 6 ppg more than luck in my league. What makes this a silly question? In leagues like mine, that give 6 points for all TDs (passing and rushing) and that penalize -2 points for ints. Foles value is pretty high.
I play in a league that does .5 for completions and -.5 for incompletions with the same rules. Silly not to question this really

 
As a Foles owner in many leagues this question made me lol.

Luck >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Foles

Silly question really.
It is easy to make a statement like this - but can you back it up? Can you please point to some evidence in their play that tells you that Luck is so much better? His accuracy? His decision making? His mobility? His stats?

I am sure if you watch enough NFL network and ESPN - you can easily conclude that Luck is the next Peyton Manning/Aaron Rodgers rolled into one.

 
I love the argument that Foles is a product of the system and Luck has to do more with less. Ummm...Yeah?! So if we know this, don't we prefer to have the QB in the great system, and avoid the QB who's team doesn't put him in a great spot to put up great fantasy numbers?? Warren Moon and the Oilers had a difficult time winning a playoff games, but boy, the run and shoot offense sure put up some great fantasy numbers. Give me the guy in the great system any day.

 
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For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.

 
For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?

 
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For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?
Good question. He was lights out. It will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I think ceiling is something I weigh heavily on and I can't help but think that we've seen the best of Foles already. His best is great but I think Luck's could be better.

 
For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?
Good question. He was lights out. It will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I think ceiling is something I weigh heavily on and I can't help but think that we've seen the best of Foles already. His best is great but I think Luck's could be better.
Foles has a great season and we'll see if it's sustainable. Luck has 23 TDs twice out of two seasons and you are sure that he'll get better

:confused:

Luck might never have a better statistical season than Foles did already.

 
For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?
Good question. He was lights out. It will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I think ceiling is something I weigh heavily on and I can't help but think that we've seen the best of Foles already. His best is great but I think Luck's could be better.
A QBs ceiling starts with YPA and/or AYPA. Then you have to project pass attempts.

Can Luck consistently produce 8 YPA on a yearly basis at his peak? When and how will it happen?

 
For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?
Good question. He was lights out. It will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I think ceiling is something I weigh heavily on and I can't help but think that we've seen the best of Foles already. His best is great but I think Luck's could be better.
Foles has a great season and we'll see if it's sustainable. Luck has 23 TDs twice out of two seasons and you are sure that he'll get better :confused:

Luck might never have a better statistical season than Foles did already.
True. I think that Foles' situation is currently one of the best in the league. I completely agree with everyone saying Foles is or should be valued similarly to Luck. I think Foles' physical limitations and sluggishness keeps him somewhat grounded though. Put Luck and Chip together and I believe we wouldn't be having this debate. Remove situation from the equation and there's no question that Luck is the better QB IMO.
 
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I love the argument that Foles is a product of the system and Luck has to do more with less. Ummm...Yeah?! So if we know this, don't we prefer to have the QB is the great system, and avoid the QB who's team doesn't put him in a great spot to put up great fantasy numbers?? Warren Moon and the Oilers had a difficult time winning a playoff games, but boy, the run and shoot offense sure put up some great fantasy numbers. Give me the guy in the great system any day.
:goodposting:

People sometimes forget we're playing a numbers game here, not trying to win a real Super Bowl.

 
I love the argument that Foles is a product of the system and Luck has to do more with less. Ummm...Yeah?! So if we know this, don't we prefer to have the QB is the great system, and avoid the QB who's team doesn't put him in a great spot to put up great fantasy numbers?? Warren Moon and the Oilers had a difficult time winning a playoff games, but boy, the run and shoot offense sure put up some great fantasy numbers. Give me the guy in the great system any day.
:goodposting: People sometimes forget we're playing a numbers game here, not trying to win a real Super Bowl.
You guys are right, there's no way around it. In redraft give me Foles a round or two later than Luck all day. Dynasty, I think it's trickier for me. I tend to look beyond situation, for better or worse.

 
I love the argument that Foles is a product of the system and Luck has to do more with less. Ummm...Yeah?! So if we know this, don't we prefer to have the QB is the great system, and avoid the QB who's team doesn't put him in a great spot to put up great fantasy numbers?? Warren Moon and the Oilers had a difficult time winning a playoff games, but boy, the run and shoot offense sure put up some great fantasy numbers. Give me the guy in the great system any day.
:goodposting: People sometimes forget we're playing a numbers game here, not trying to win a real Super Bowl.
You guys are right, there's no way around it. In redraft give me Foles a round or two later than Luck all day. Dynasty, I think it's trickier for me. I tend to look beyond situation, for better or worse.
Luck is certainly safer and barring injury I would be shocked if he's not a starting QB in 10 years.

 
For me it comes down to ceiling. I question Foles' ability to improve. Can he get any better? I don't think we have to even ask that question about Luck. It's crystal clear he can and most likely will.
How much better than 2013 do you want Foles (or anyone for that matter) to be?
Good question. He was lights out. It will be interesting to see if it's sustainable. I think ceiling is something I weigh heavily on and I can't help but think that we've seen the best of Foles already. His best is great but I think Luck's could be better.
Foles has a great season and we'll see if it's sustainable. Luck has 23 TDs twice out of two seasons and you are sure that he'll get better :confused:

Luck might never have a better statistical season than Foles did already.
True. I think that Foles' situation is currently one of the best in the league. I completely agree with everyone saying Foles is or should be valued similarly to Luck. I think Foles' physical limitations and sluggishness keeps him somewhat grounded though. Put Luck and Chip together and I believe we wouldn't be having this debate. Remove situation from the equation and there's no question that Luck is the better QB IMO.
I appreciate your point of view, I just need more information as to why you believe it to be. Maybe there just isn't much to go on though.

 
Foles 2013 Highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFo3FtCVKuE

Luck 2013 Highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erGaeuBS37c

Foles Opponents Combined Record: 115-139-2

Opponents Combined Season Points Allowed: 6560 = 25.625 ppg (which would be the 9th most if the average was a team this year)

Luck Opponents Combined Record: 124-132

Opponents Combined Season Points Allowed: 5852 = 22.859 ppg (which would be 20th most if a team in the league this year)

Not putting any opinion behind these but I thought I'd throw them out there.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?
If Nicks can play like he did before all these injuries, then I think he can be. Look how terrible Eli has been since Nicks started sucking. It's tough for a QB on a mediocre offense to perform well without having any real good WR's. A great running game can also help QB's, but the Giants and Colts don't have that either.

I'm not sure I'm sold on Luck being the next Peyton, but I think he will be a top 3 QB in the coming years and stay that way until he's done. Look at how bad the Colts were the year before they drafted Luck. They are still building.

Foles is in an ideal situation. He's at his ceiling. Luck is at his floor.

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Why would this be on someone's mind? Is a trade happening?

Foles + Kelly >>> Luck + Indy in fantasy.

I don't think anyone is arguing Foles is a better or more talented NFL QB.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?
If Nicks can play like he did before all these injuries, then I think he can be. Look how terrible Eli has been since Nicks started sucking. It's tough for a QB on a mediocre offense to perform well without having any real good WR's. A great running game can also help QB's, but the Giants and Colts don't have that either.

I'm not sure I'm sold on Luck being the next Peyton, but I think he will be a top 3 QB in the coming years and stay that way until he's done. Look at how bad the Colts were the year before they drafted Luck. They are still building.

Foles is in an ideal situation. He's at his ceiling. Luck is at his floor.
Umm. Nicks played 15 games last year. He accounted for a whopping ZERO TD's. I know Eli sucked last year - but for the most part Nicks was healthy last year and he did not help Eli one bit. To think he steps in this year and puts up his best seasons ever of 1100 and 10 - that is wishing a lot - especially for a QB that throws 23TD's a year.

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Why would this be on someone's mind? Is a trade happening?

Foles + Kelly >>> Luck + Indy in fantasy.

I don't think anyone is arguing Foles is a better or more talented NFL QB.
Because the conversation and debate is clearly talent vs. situation. In redraft the question doesn't matter because the situations aren't changing for next year. In dynasty it's a totally different animal, though. Situations change drastically over time, sometimes short amounts of time. The question was posed for both scenarios. Part of the conflict in this thread is the notion that Foles is at his ceiling and Luck closer to his floor, potentially.
 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?
If Nicks can play like he did before all these injuries, then I think he can be. Look how terrible Eli has been since Nicks started sucking. It's tough for a QB on a mediocre offense to perform well without having any real good WR's. A great running game can also help QB's, but the Giants and Colts don't have that either.

I'm not sure I'm sold on Luck being the next Peyton, but I think he will be a top 3 QB in the coming years and stay that way until he's done. Look at how bad the Colts were the year before they drafted Luck. They are still building.

Foles is in an ideal situation. He's at his ceiling. Luck is at his floor.
Why do you say Foles is at his ceiling? He hasn't played a full season yet. Are you saying he reached his ceiling in less than a full season?

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?
If Nicks can play like he did before all these injuries, then I think he can be. Look how terrible Eli has been since Nicks started sucking. It's tough for a QB on a mediocre offense to perform well without having any real good WR's. A great running game can also help QB's, but the Giants and Colts don't have that either.

I'm not sure I'm sold on Luck being the next Peyton, but I think he will be a top 3 QB in the coming years and stay that way until he's done. Look at how bad the Colts were the year before they drafted Luck. They are still building.

Foles is in an ideal situation. He's at his ceiling. Luck is at his floor.
Umm. Nicks played 15 games last year. He accounted for a whopping ZERO TD's. I know Eli sucked last year - but for the most part Nicks was healthy last year and he did not help Eli one bit. To think he steps in this year and puts up his best seasons ever of 1100 and 10 - that is wishing a lot - especially for a QB that throws 23TD's a year.
I don't think you read my post correctly.

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Is your point that Luck is a more talented QB than Foles? Then I 100% agree with you.

However, since the Colts are not trading Luck to the Eagles for Foles, the only question that matters from a FF perspective is who will score more fantasy points, Foles on the Eagles or Luck on the Colts. Luck is more talented in a worse situation and Foles is less talented in a better situation. People get blinded by the fact that since Luck is more talented he should score more fantasy points. Not necessarily so. Troy Aikman was a very talented QB but he was a horrible FF play because his team did not require him to put up big passing numbers. I am sure I am not the only one who used to laugh in the 90's when some newbie to fantasy football picked Troy with their number 1 pick because he was the QB of the superbowl champs.

 
Borden said:
Foles 2013 Highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFo3FtCVKuE

Luck 2013 Highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=erGaeuBS37c

Foles Opponents Combined Record: 115-139-2

Opponents Combined Season Points Allowed: 6560 = 25.625 ppg (which would be the 9th most if the average was a team this year)

Luck Opponents Combined Record: 124-132

Opponents Combined Season Points Allowed: 5852 = 22.859 ppg (which would be 20th most if a team in the league this year)

Not putting any opinion behind these but I thought I'd throw them out there.
May as well delete post

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Why would this be on someone's mind? Is a trade happening?

Foles + Kelly >>> Luck + Indy in fantasy.

I don't think anyone is arguing Foles is a better or more talented NFL QB.
Because the conversation and debate is clearly talent vs. situation. In redraft the question doesn't matter because the situations aren't changing for next year. In dynasty it's a totally different animal, though. Situations change drastically over time, sometimes short amounts of time. The question was posed for both scenarios. Part of the conflict in this thread is the notion that Foles is at his ceiling and Luck closer to his floor, potentially.
Fair point for dynasty. The thing right now to keep in mind with the Colts is they have a defensive minded coach in Pagano. They probably never will have an ultra aggressive passing offense with him as head coach. The fact that they were

willing to trade for Richardson highlights, I think, what Pagano wants in an offense.

 
If the Foles owner offered me him for Luck I would ask him how many 1's he will also give me for him.
Meanwhile you would have missed out on close to 10ppg in leagues that award 6pts per TD this year. Why wouldn't you even consider it?
because I have a stud for the next decade and a half and Foles numbers will dive if ge ever leaves Chip Kelly.
Do you have a stud?

Luck hasn't been anywhere near ff stud yet. And you are banking on it for 10 years? You think Nicks is his savior?
If Nicks can play like he did before all these injuries, then I think he can be. Look how terrible Eli has been since Nicks started sucking. It's tough for a QB on a mediocre offense to perform well without having any real good WR's. A great running game can also help QB's, but the Giants and Colts don't have that either.

I'm not sure I'm sold on Luck being the next Peyton, but I think he will be a top 3 QB in the coming years and stay that way until he's done. Look at how bad the Colts were the year before they drafted Luck. They are still building.

Foles is in an ideal situation. He's at his ceiling. Luck is at his floor.
Why do you say Foles is at his ceiling? He hasn't played a full season yet. Are you saying he reached his ceiling in less than a full season?
I meant as far as fantasy and stats go. He will probably improve fundamentally as a QB over time, but they may become weaker in other areas (losing Desean) that will hinder his numbers. I feel like his fantasy numbers are at his ceiling, not his QB abilities. If you think his stats are going to improve from here then you are basically saying that you think Foles will be the best fantasy QB of all time. I don't see it, but that's just my opinion.

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Why would this be on someone's mind? Is a trade happening?

Foles + Kelly >>> Luck + Indy in fantasy.

I don't think anyone is arguing Foles is a better or more talented NFL QB.
Because the conversation and debate is clearly talent vs. situation. In redraft the question doesn't matter because the situations aren't changing for next year. In dynasty it's a totally different animal, though. Situations change drastically over time, sometimes short amounts of time. The question was posed for both scenarios. Part of the conflict in this thread is the notion that Foles is at his ceiling and Luck closer to his floor, potentially.
Fair point for dynasty. The thing right now to keep in mind with the Colts is they have a defensive minded coach in Pagano. They probably never will have an ultra aggressive passing offense with him as head coach. The fact that they were

willing to trade for Richardson highlights, I think, what Pagano wants in an offense.
I am inclined to agree; on the other hand, the Colts offense consistently was at its best when it handed Luck the reins. It was pretty obvious that the run-heavy offense wouldn't work, but the Colts stubbornly stuck with it.

Then, in the Chiefs game, IIRC, the Colts opened up with 7 straight passes. And it was one of their best drives all season. I wonder if the light went on for Pagano, which then prompted a move like the Nicks signing. It's all guesswork at this point, but I guess my two points are: (1) I agree that the average fan doesn't realize how conservative the Colts were last year, and (2) it's possible that the Colts now realize a pass-first offense is the way to go.

 
Let's ask the hypothetical question that is probably on a lot of people's minds. If Luck and Foles swapped teams, how would you feel about them? What do you think their NFL and fantasy stats would look like in that cases?
Is your point that Luck is a more talented QB than Foles? Then I 100% agree with you.

However, since the Colts are not trading Luck to the Eagles for Foles, the only question that matters from a FF perspective is who will score more fantasy points, Foles on the Eagles or Luck on the Colts. Luck is more talented in a worse situation and Foles is less talented in a better situation. People get blinded by the fact that since Luck is more talented he should score more fantasy points. Not necessarily so. Troy Aikman was a very talented QB but he was a horrible FF play because his team did not require him to put up big passing numbers. I am sure I am not the only one who used to laugh in the 90's when some newbie to fantasy football picked Troy with their number 1 pick because he was the QB of the superbowl champs.
Only problem with this is that the Colts are asking Luck to do everything. They have no running game and a horrible defense. As a rookie Luck attempted a whopping 627 passes! 40 pass attempts per game as a rookie - ranking 5th overall in the 2012 season. 2013 Luck had 37.1 attempts per game ranking the Colts as 12th in the league. Luck is going to have to get a lot more efficient for his fantasy numbers to improve - I can't imagine they ask him to throw more in 2014 than he already has.

Meanwhile last year the Eagles were 27th in the league in pass attempts per game at 31.8.

I would like to think that as McCoy gets more mileage and Foles gets a better grasp of this offense - that number has room to grow. Especially with the addition of Sproles. I would like to see the Eagles use an early round pick on another WR too.

I don't think Foles is at his ceiling. I certainly don't expect his TD to INT ratio to maintain the way it is - but overall his numbers have room to grow. This year he gets all the first team reps! And with Chip Kelly and his "I am not sold on you" attitude - Foles always has the fire burning on his seat. Meanwhile Luck just needs to roll out of bed and he is the starter in Indy.

 
I think there is every chance for Foles to improve given this will be his first Season as the unquestioned starter throughout camp and leading into the season. Another season to learn Chips book and for Chip to hone his craft at this level. Subtract Desean, but add Sproles + whoever they draft at WR. Lots of variables, but I've seen no indication, other than the inexplicable Dallas game, that Foles rattles under pressure. Lets say for the sake of argument that he neither improves nor digresses. The only difference is that he plays a full boat this year. Based on his performance last year, he'd end with a stat line of:

4,203 pass yards/40 TD's/3 ints; 327 rush yards/4 TD's/3 fumbles...in my league, which penalizes -2 for fumbles and ints, thats 494 FFP's. Manning's historic year resulted in 596, Brees came in second with 503 and Rivers rounded out the top three with 410. FWIW, Luck totaled 381 FFP's.

I don't care about who's situation is better. I care about production. Andy Dalton and Matt Stafford finished 4 and 5 last year ahead of Cam and Luck. Does anyone think that without AJ Green and Calvin those guys would be viable FF starters? I do not, but I don't care-I just know they put numbers up.

Bold prediction: If Foles stays healthy and plays all 16, he will finish top 3 FF QB next year.

 
I remember being offered some guy named Tom Brady back in 2002 for Culpepper - who was coming off the #1 rated season ever. Then again the same offer in 2003 and replying to the owner "how many 1sts you going to throw in?"

Not exactly the same - physically Luck is your prototypical QB - big-strong-gamer-etc. Foles is kinda like Brady - slow-flat-footed-but precise.

I would take Luck over Foles - but it is not a landslide. Who scores more FP in 2014? I would not be surprised if it is Foles.

Look back at Luck's game logs. I remember Foles had a terrible game against Dallas (later rumored he was hurt that game) - after that game people wanted him benched.

FOUR times this year Luck had games with ZERO TD's - but because he is Luck he gets the free pass.

THREE times this year Luck threw 3 or more INT's in a game! Foles had TWO INT's all year!

NINE GAMES Luck had 1 or less TD"s Including a month long stretch where he had 2 TD's over 4 games.

TEN Games Luck had 250 yards or less passing - Including 4 Games with less than 200 yards!

For such a pass happy team - Luck's numbers sure don't blow me away - Maybe I take Foles over Luck!
This analysis is fantastic. I drafted Luck as my dynasty QB to replace Tom Brady in 2012. In my experience, Luck has been a very inconsistent QB. He either puts up monster numbers or has a less than stellar week. He has a 2-season track record of this and could continue to be a boom or bust quarterback in the future.

Foles however has only one real season under his belt. Everybody knows he is going to throw more than 2 INTs next year. But nobody knows how much larger that will become. Will he throw INTs like Alex Smith or like Eli Manning? There's also the loss of DeSean Jackson. Now I live in the Philly area, as a Chiefs fan, and I don't believe that DeSean's release will make or break the team. They still have many weapons on offense (Sproles, Maclin, Ertz, McCoy) to get the job done.

At this point it could really come down to personal preference. Luck can score more rushing TDs but will also throw more INTs. Foles can throw as many touchdowns as he can, but McCoy should be the focus of the offense and will take a few away from Foles.

 
yeah

gimme luck

i am not sold on foles over luck based on a handful of games, sorry
And two full seasons of mediocre performance for Luck has you sold on him?
compared to foles, yup

prior to this season medicore performance would have been a step up for foles

so now, how much of it was him, how much of it was the system, will the system do as well with new faces, will the system do s well now that there is a year of tape on it, and is foles really any good?

there's a ton of questions

luck is good and only going to get better

which QB is more likely to end up outside the top 20?

which team is more volitile and less predictable?

i think that is foles and the eagles, so i'd role with luck

 

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