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[DYNASTY] 1st Round Rookie pick value


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#1 beto

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 07:55 AM

I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.

This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with draft classes of varying talent and depth.

First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.

1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.

2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.

3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.

Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.

Rookie pick #  =  Veteran pick #       1.1      =        2.4
The perfect srting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick. However, the fact is that no matter how much you love a player, until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.

      1.2      =        2.8
I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.

      1.3      =        3.2
The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.

      1.4      =        3.11
The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.

      1.5      =        5.5
This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.

      1.6      =        5.8
I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.

      1.7      =        7.2
The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.

      1.8      =        9.1
The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.

      1.9      =        11.1
Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.

      1.10      =        12.6       1.11      =        13.6       1.12      =        15.1
I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!

I know alot of us are in dynasty leagues with each other but I hope this can generate some discussion. I would love to see the data from anyone else who has saved it. I have mine in a excel table and would be happy to share. Shoot me a PM.

Edited by beto, 08 March 2006 - 04:40 AM.

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#2 Drugrunner

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:15 AM

Beto,This is awesome! Will Grant is working on something like this for the upcoming season, but with a slightly different angle. You might want to reach out to him where you guys could put your heads together.I'm putting this into the Master Thread.DR
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#3 FightingWombat

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:27 AM

Beto, Very interesting. Thanks for taking the time to research this. :thumbup: I am relatively new to Dynasty. (2005 will be my third year). How do you think the numbers stack up when IDPs are involved? During vet drafts, IDPs don't start going off the board until round 5 or 6, IME. At any rate, great post!
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#4 Will Grant

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:30 AM

Beto,

This is awesome! Will Grant is working on something like this for the upcoming season, but with a slightly different angle. You might want to reach out to him where you guys could put your heads together.

I'm putting this into the Master Thread.

DR

Very cool. Beto, shoot me a PM on this if you don' t mind.

I'd like to talk to you more about this one on one.

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#5 Dave Stauff

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:31 AM

Very nice . . . and I believe your observations are right on the money.

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#6 TheFanatic

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:33 AM

Bennett over Tomlinson

I did this. :bag: Because of that when I won the draft lottery last year and was picking 1.1 I was really worried about it. I was afraid I would mess it up again. Grabbed KJones. JJones wouldn't have been a bad pick either but that Bennett thing really bit me in the ###.....
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#7 Couch Potato

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:42 AM

Two human traits - (1) hope and (2) the desire for something new - will generally inflate the value of rookie picks. Hope and the desire for something new causes owners to overpay to acquire rookie picks beyond what objective comparative value (which Beto is working to find) would warrant. Even if most owners are cautious, there will invariably be some owners - even one is enough - who are willing to overpay for a rookie pick. They translate upside into expected future reality, almost completely disregarding the worst-case (bust) factor. If they draft Ronnie Brown, they expect a top-10 RB and not a Curtis Enis. If they use the pick on Mike Williams, they expect to get a Torry Holt and not a David Terrell. That's just human nature. Of course you wouldn't trade for a high rookie pick expecting a Curtis Enis or David Terrell. But, there is always that risk, and a smart owner will be very careful about trading up for rookie picks. In general it is probably smarter to trade away rookie picks since there is a good likelihood of receiving in return proven value close to the hoped-for upside of the pick but with much less risk.

Edited by Couch Potato, 10 March 2005 - 11:02 AM.

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#8 JohnnyU

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:53 AM

Great job with this Beto :thumbup:

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#9 SuperJohn96

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:07 AM

I'll help in the cause of research.Here is a link to our Serious Football League draft page.Three completed rookie drafts (2002-2004) with 2005 starting May 23rd.16 team dyansty league with salary caps, 53 man rosters, 5 man taxi squads, full IDP, 18 starters...and 6 round rookie drafts.So LOTS to work with...I also have some information on our league message board regarding draft statistics.

Here are some numbers to let you know what to expect in each round of the 2005 SFL Draft. The numbers (for some reason) seem to be pretty consistent... I rounded all the numbers, so some rounds have 17 picks and some have 15...just ignore the inexactitude of these results. I rounded them to make the numbers easier to read. Round #1 QB = 3 RB = 6 WR = 3 TE = 1 PK = 0 DT = 0 DE = 0 LB = 1 CB = 1 S = 1 Round #2 QB = 1 RB = 3 WR = 4 TE = 1 PK = 0 DT = 0 DE = 2 LB = 3 CB = 2 S = 1 Round #3 QB = 0 RB = 4 WR = 3 TE = 1 PK = 0 DT = 2 DE = 2 LB = 1 CB = 2 S = 2 Round #4 QB = 2 RB = 3 WR = 3 TE = 0 PK = 0 DT = 1 DE = 2 LB = 1 CB = 2 S = 1 Round #5 QB = 1 RB = 2 WR = 3 TE = 1 PK = 1 DT = 2 DE = 2 LB = 2 CB = 2 S = 0 Round #6 QB = 2 RB = 2 WR = 2 TE = 1 PK = 1 DT = 1 DE = 2 LB = 3 CB = 0 S = 2 Draft Totals (2002-2004) QB = 08.3 RB = 19.3 WR = 18.3 TE = 05.3 PK = 02.0 DT = 06.7 DE = 09.3 LB = 10.7 CB = 08.3 S = 07.7 Average Round QB = 1.4 RB = 3.2 WR = 3.1 TE = 0.9 PK = 0.3 DT = 1.1 DE = 1.6 LB = 1.8 CB = 1.4 S = 1.3----------------------------------Offense vs. Defense Round #1 Offense = 13 Defense = 3 Round #2 Offense = 9 Defense = 8 Round #3 Offense = 8 Defense = 9 Round #4 Offense = 8 Defense = 7 Round #5 Offense = 8 Defense = 8 Round #6 Offense = 8 Defense = 8 Draft Totals (2002-2004) Offense = 53.2 Defense = 42.7


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#10 Bloom

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:08 AM

last class rookie class kind of throws this off. guys like roethlisberger and lee evans were going at the 10th pick and later because the skill player class was so deep.i like this a guideline, but you have to adjust for the rookie class you are looking at.

#11 ConstruxBoy

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:12 AM

Great stuff Beto! :thumbup: I've got the 1.05 pick in a rookie draft this year and I figure I'll get something like:4th RB, 1st or 2nd WR, or 1st QB. I'm comfortable with those players, although I can see that 1.05 is the spot where people start to reach.

#12 Bloom

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:16 AM

just to take it a step further and get the talk about this year's class going:i think between the top 3 RB and top 2 WR a pick in the top 5 is golden - the 5th pick is very nice, i would say worth more than the 5.5 in beto's standard value system. the next 3 or 4 RBs and 2 or 3 WRs are also excellent, and the top 2 QBs and top TE also belong in this tier. i would say beto's value for the 6 and 7 is about right, but the 8 through 12 are undervalued in his system - especially 10 through 12.lastly, i will say that there are some very nice RBs WRs and QBs in the second and third tiers this year, ESPECIALLY RB. i think rookie picks in the 20-30 range are more valuable this year than in a typical year. last year the RBs in the 20s were pretty much moore, cobbs, turner, and then no one. this year you will be looking at guys like shelton, harris, mcclendon - probably at least of moats/arrington/houston - and if they dont fall then, some real nice WR/QB/IDP guys will be there.

#13 Bloom

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:17 AM

Great stuff Beto! :thumbup:

I've got the 1.05 pick in a rookie draft this year and I figure I'll get something like:
4th RB, 1st or 2nd WR, or 1st QB.

I'm comfortable with those players, although I can see that 1.05 is the spot where people start to reach.

1.05 is not a reach this year.

any of brown, caddy, benson, edwards or mike williams could end being a fantasy superstud, and all project to be above average fantasy starters at worst. i hate to say "cant miss", but these 5 have earned the label. honestly the 1.05 is not worth that much less than the 1.01 this year if you dont specifically need an RB.

#14 ConstruxBoy

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:24 AM



Great stuff Beto! :thumbup:

I've got the 1.05 pick in a rookie draft this year and I figure I'll get something like:
4th RB, 1st or 2nd WR, or 1st QB.

I'm comfortable with those players, although I can see that 1.05 is the spot where people start to reach.

1.05 is not a reach this year.

any of brown, caddy, benson, edwards or mike williams could end being a fantasy superstud, and all project to be above average fantasy starters at worst. i hate to say "cant miss", but these 5 have earned the label. honestly the 1.05 is not worth that much less than the 1.01 this year if you dont specifically need an RB.

Yeah, I agree with that, I jut didn't want to rub it in. :P
But it's a little too easy to just take whomever is left of the big 5, so I still think folks picking at 1.05 should do their homework. If fact, I think the people picking at 1.06 might get some bargins this year if the 1.05 person is just robotically picking the last of the big 5 and not paying attention to where they go.

#15 Bloom

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 09:25 AM



last class rookie class kind of throws this off. guys like roethlisberger and lee evans were going at the 10th pick and later because the skill player class was so deep.

i like this a guideline, but you have to adjust for the rookie class you are looking at.

Agreed.
I also think in this year's crop, the 4 and 5 are a lot closer than 3.11 to 5.05, while the 5 to 6 is a little more of a drop off. 1, 2, and 3 are probably a litte closer as well right now, but this can easily change after the NFL draft, say if either Seattle or Indy had a new starter, while the other two RBs land in RBBC (Chicago / Tennessee for example).

just to illustrate(ranking within tiers in no particular order)

Brown
Caddy
Benson
-------- (dropoff strictly for RB scarcity, but i like these two just fine)
MikeWilliams
Edwards
---------(some will move up based on situation, but all are blue chip)
ASmith
Rodgers
Williamson
Clayton
Miller
Morency
Fason
(13)Barber
--------
Frye
Mcpherson
Campbell
White
Houston
Arrington
Moats
(21)Shelton
-------
Orton
Walter
Gibson
RegBrown
Henry
Mathis
McClendon
Harris
(30)ASmith(TE)
--------


thats 30 very solid prospects without even getting into IDP or speculative guys like clarett or matt jones. last year wasnt nearly this deep at the offensive skill positions, i think there were only about 8-10 viable RBs and 5 viable QBs.

Edited by Bloom, 10 March 2005 - 09:27 AM.


#16 beto

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:31 AM

One thing I forgot to add to my original post is I also used the career per year draft spots of each of my leagues 1st round picks as a criteria in my final vet pick # equivalent.

I am relatively new to Dynasty. (2005 will be my third year). How do you think the numbers stack up when IDPs are involved? During vet drafts, IDPs don't start going off the board until round 5 or 6, IME.

Sorry Wombat I haven't been in a money league with IDPs so no data there.

Two human traits - (1) hope and (2) the desire for something new - will generally inflate the value of rookie picks. Hope and the desire for something new causes owners to overpay to acquire rookie picks beyond what objective comparative value (which Beto is working to find) would warrant.

Even if most owners are catious, there will invariably be some owners - even one is enough - who are willing to overpay for a rookie pick. They translate upside into expected future reality, almost completely disregarding the worst-case (bust) factor. If they draft Ronnie Brown, they expect a top-10 RB and not a Curtis Enis. If they use the pick in Mike Williams, they expect to get a Torry Holt and not a David Terrell.

That's just human nature. Of course you wouldn't trade for a high rookie pick expecting a Curtis Enis or David Terrell. But, there is always that risk, and a smart owner will be very careful about trading up for rookie picks. In general it is probably smarter to trade away rookie picks since there is a good likelihood of receiving in return proven value close to the hoped-for upside of the pick but with much less risk.

:goodposting:

I hinted at this in my write up but you nail it here. I also think that if you understand this value you can get some great deals trading the picks.

last class rookie class kind of throws this off. guys like roethlisberger and lee evans were going at the 10th pick and later because the skill player class was so deep.

i like this a guideline, but you have to adjust for the rookie class you are looking at.

I purposely didn't give a lot of weight to the last 2 draft classes in coming up with my numbers because the jury is still out on them. Looking at the '99 - '02 classes gives some good data points.
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#17 EBF

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:44 AM

Nice post. Here's how I predict things will shake out this year on average:1. Ronnie Brown2. Cedric Benson3. Cadillac Williams4. Braylon Edwards5. Mike Williams6. Marion Barber7. Troy Williamson 8. Aaron Rodgers9. Alex Smith10. JJ Arrington11. Mark Clayton12. Eric Shelton Roddy White, Vernand Morency, Ciatrick Fason, and Reggie Brown also have the potential to go in the first round. Realistically, any RB taken in second or third has a decent chance of going higher than both of these QBs. However, it's tough to predict who those RBs will be.

Edited by EBF, 10 March 2005 - 10:47 AM.


#18 -OZ-

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 11:11 AM

Nice post. Here's how I predict things will shake out this year on average:

1. Ronnie Brown
2. Cedric Benson
3. Cadillac Williams
4. Braylon Edwards
5. Mike Williams
6. Marion Barber
7. Troy Williamson
8. Aaron Rodgers
9. Alex Smith
10. JJ Arrington
11. Mark Clayton
12. Eric Shelton

Roddy White, Vernand Morency, Ciatrick Fason, and Reggie Brown also have the potential to go in the first round. Realistically, any RB taken in second or third has a decent chance of going higher than both of these QBs. However, it's tough to predict who those RBs will be.

I understand that TEs aren't worth a lot in some leagues, but Heath Miller really should be taken above the QBs IMO, and I'd bump Clayton up to #8, aside from that I think you have the consensus.

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#19 EBF

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 11:16 AM

I don't think as highly of Heath Miller as most people. The scouting reports I've read on him say that he's clearly below the elite level as a pass catcher. If I'm taking a TE in the first round of a rookie draft then I want a guy with no weaknesses as a receiver. When it comes down to it, I just don't know if a lot of owners will be willing to pass on first day RBs and early second round WRs for a non-Winslow TE.

#20 SammyJankis

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 11:32 AM

I think you're undervalueing rookie picks. The 1.01 rookie pick is worth much more than the 2.4 vet pick IMO. Here's why:

To win in almost any fantasy league, you're going to need strong running back play. A sucessful RB has an average career of abour 7 years (though not all years are equal). In a dynasty league, you're going to have to figure out how to reload at the RB position frequently. This is why early rookie picks are so valuable: High picks in rookie drafts represent the only chance to acquire RB talent at anything close to fair value.

If you're in a dynasty league, go ahead and shoot an email to the Willis McGahee, Kevin Jones or Julius Jones owner and ask what they might want in exchange. Chances are that those players are not available, at any price. If they were available, the owners would no doubt ask for a price that would make your head spin. This might not surprise you. But what might surprise a dynasty novice is that any RB under 30 is going to also be very hard to acquire.

Its been my experience that a young stud RB is a commodity so valuable as to be untradable. Quarterbacks and wide receivers are fairly easy to acquire in dynasty leagues. Even young ones are available. In fact, I avoid all but the elite QB and WR prospects, because many owners will be disappointed after a year or two if their production is not yet an elite level. But in most leagues, the only RBs are available via trade are those that are 30+. You might be able to acquire Tiki Barber, Curtis Martin, etc. in your dynasty league, but that will be about it. And even those RBs will come at a very high price.

Sure, a high rookie pick is no gurantee of success. You might pay a high price for the #1 and blow it on Ron Dayne. But if you want to win your league, guys like Tomlinson, Kevin Jones, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister, Clinton Portis, Julius Jones, etc. are going to go a long way toward achieving that goal. If you want guys like that on your roster, you're going to have to be proactive in acquiring a top rookie pick, do your research and take a chance on a rookie runner.

I practice what I preach. In my main dynasty league I have acquired the #1 pick 3 times in the last six years. (all through trade) I have used that pick on Ricky Williams(99), Jamal Lewis(00) and Kevin Jones(04). I have the #2 rookie this year. I am happy with the results.

So that's the bottom line for me: To win you need RB talent -> This talent has to be replineshed over time -> THe only way to replenish it is through the rookie draft. Therefore, the top couple of rookie picks are extremely valuable. Do they carry risk? You bet. But if you want to achieve dynasty success, its a risk you have to be willing to take.
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#21 SammyJankis

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 11:45 AM

I agree with your three main points mostly. My comments:

1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.

I think every first round pick is a difficult decision as it will shape your team for years. The higher the pick, the more that's at stake, so yeah its tough. Do all the research you can, but remember that ultimately, you're the one making the decision. Draft a player that you feel best about and a guy you like watching run. Always think long term, which means talent over situation.

2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference..

In fifteen years of dynasty league play, I've seen reaching for RBs start as early as the #3 pick. I've seen this multiple times. My two favorite places to have picks are: 1) The top 1-4 picks. Basically the number of picks equal to the elite runners in the draft. 2) Picks #8-#10. Again, depends on the year. Basically the spot where the reaching for RB ends and you can add the #1 QB or the #2 or #3 WR at a discount price.

3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.

This is absolutely true. The drop off in value is steep. I talked about having the top 1-4 picks depending on the number of elite runners. The drop from this tier to the next is like going into a bottomless pit. To the point that I would value a pick in this top tier as four to five times more valuable than the next. Its that steep. I'd say the average draft has 1-4 elite players, another 4-6 good players and 6-10 speculative players. Everything after that is generally garbage. Our dynasty league has 16 teams so the first round is 16 picks. This is where on average the picks turn to trash. Sometimes drafts only go 10-12 deep, while others go 20, but on average 16 picks is about right.
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#22 beto

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 12:13 PM

Great input SammyJ. You say the 1.1 Rookie pick is worth way more than the 2.4, I just think it's tough to go a lot higher than that based on the caliber of player available there and the risk/reward of any NFL rookie.
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#23 SammyJankis

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 01:27 PM

Great input SammyJ. You say the 1.1 Rookie pick is worth way more than the 2.4, I just think it's tough to go a lot higher than that based on the caliber of player available there and the risk/reward of any NFL rookie.

I thought a good bit about what redraft pick would be comparable to the 1.1 rookie pick in a dynasty league. After thinking about it for a bit, the answer is clear IMO, The 1.1 rookie pick in most rookie drafts is more valuable than the 1.1 pick in a redraft league.

At first glance, it sounds like that can't be right. After all, the 1st pick in a redraft league can take any player, while the 1.1 rookie pick can take only the top rookie. In other words, the list of available players with the 1.1 rookie pick is some subset of the players available with the 1.1 redraft pick. Furthermore, the 1st pick in a redraft league will likely be used to select an established player, while the 1st rookie pick will be used on a player that hasn't played a down in the pros. While every pick carries risk, clearly the top redraft pick is a safer bet than the top rookie pick. So how can the safer pick, more flexible pick be worth less than the riskier more limited pick?

Let me start by saying that comparing rookie draft picks in a dynasty league to picks in a redraft league is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. So when I make it, I'm talking about how much of a competitive advantage that pick gives you over your opponents in that league. In other words, who is in a better situation, the 1.1 redraft pick owner or the 1.1 rookie draft pick owner?

What we're talking about here is value. In a redraft league, when comparing two players, the more valuable player is the player that gives you the bigger edge over your opponents over the course of the season. That's what VBD is all about. It gives you a means to evaluate the worth of players at different positions by asking, "What player gives me more of a competitive edge against my opponents?". However, if you wanted to simplify the discussion down to one position, namely running backs, it gets pretty easy. In a redraft league, the best RB is the one that scores the most points. (The cynic might argue that the best RB is the one that gets you to your playoffs and then scores the most then, but I'll talk about short vs. long term value in a second).

But the value of dynasty players is more complicated. Suppose I look into a crystal ball, and can predict two players futures and offered you a choice of which you wanted. The first player is Priest Holmes, who I see having his best year ever in 2005, being the #1 RB by a wide margin and leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl. Unfortunately the downside is that he retires at the end of the season. The other player is Ronnie Brown, who is drafted by the Dolphins. Due to their sub-par line and poor QB play, Brown has a pretty average rookie year. However, the Dolphins shape up in 06 and Brown goes down to be one of the greatest runners to ever play the game, finishing in the top 5 year in and year out. If you could have your pick of one of these two players in a dynasty league, which would you rather have?

The answer of course is "it depends". Clearly, if you're a team that is built to win in 05, but whose only hole is at RB, Holmes is your guy. Adding Holmes to your team, likely elevates your team to a super bowl crown. But if your team is a doormat, Holmes likely only raises your team to an average level and then he's gone. So in that case, you would want Brown by far.

So when we're talking about dynasty value, we need to be clear whether we're talking about long term or short term value. However, unless you fall into that "one player away from the super bowl" situation, you want to maximize your long term value. If you're picking 1.1 in a rookie draft, you likely got their one of two ways. Either your team stinks, or you're an owner savy enough to trade for the 1.1 pick. If you're a doormat, you want to maximize your long term value. If you moved up to #1 to get that pick, you're savy enough to want to maximize your long term value as wel.. So when we talk about the "value" of a rookie pick, I'm going to assume we're talking about long term value.

So getting back to the matter hand: What's the long term value of a dynasty player? All things being equal, its the value of a player multiplied by the number of years that player does it. For example, if we're comparing two RBs that will each average 100 points a year, the RB that will play six more years is twice as valuable as the RB that plays three more years. Things are rarely this simple though, if you really want to compare value you have to talk about distribution of those points. Plus there is no good way to project a player's stats over his career. Nonetheless it should be clear though that long term value in a dynasty league is similar to redraft value, but the extra consideration is the number of seasons the player has left.

So if we just came back for the future and wanted to plot the long term value of all available players (vets and rookies) we could just add up their numbers from each year (VBD if comparing different positions, FF points if we're comparing players of the same position). What we'd see is that the distribution would be quite different. The handful of very young elite RBs would be signifigantly worth more than any other RB. Guys like Kevin Jones, McGahee and Tomlinson would blow away anyone else. Not only do these guys figure to outperform their counterparts in the years ahead, they figure to do it for a good number of years.

This gets back to what I stated in a previous post, that young stud RBs are so valuable in a dynasty league as to be almost untradable. They are simply worth leaps and bounds more than any other player. Much more so than a redraft league. If you have three good RBs in a redraft and only one good WR, why not trade the RB for a WR and maximize your chances in that league to win? But in a dynasty league, trade away that RB and he'll be very difficult to replace. You have to think about next year, when one of your starters might retire.

So when we're comparing rookie to redraft picks, it doesn't make sense to ask who will be available with the pick, it makes sense to ask how much of an advantage that pick gives you. The top rookie pick carries more risk than the comparable redraft pick. In this regard, the rookie pick cedes some ground to the redraft pick. However, a young rookie runner is so valuable in a dynasty league, that the pick is worth the risk.

Kevin Jones was a middle of the pack runner in a redraft league last year, but if you took him in your rookie draft last year, you now have a player valued as the #2-#5 overall player in all of FF. You have a player that is so valuable as to be almost untradable. What I'm getting that Kevin Jones in dynasty is worth leaps and bounds more than Kevin Jones in a redraft league. So much so that the #1 pick in a rookie draft that gives you an opportunity to draft a player like jim, is worth more than any pick in a redraft league.
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#24 pretender

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 02:05 PM



Great input SammyJ.  You say the 1.1 Rookie pick is worth way more than the 2.4, I just think it's tough to go a lot higher than that based on the caliber of player available there and the risk/reward of any NFL rookie.

I thought a good bit about what redraft pick would be comparable to the 1.1 rookie pick in a dynasty league. After thinking about it for a bit, the answer is clear IMO, The 1.1 rookie pick in most rookie drafts is more valuable than the 1.1 pick in a redraft league.

At first glance, it sounds like that can't be right. After all, the 1st pick in a redraft league can take any player, while the 1.1 rookie pick can take only the top rookie. In other words, the list of available players with the 1.1 rookie pick is some subset of the players available with the 1.1 redraft pick. Furthermore, the 1st pick in a redraft league will likely be used to select an established player, while the 1st rookie pick will be used on a player that hasn't played a down in the pros. While every pick carries risk, clearly the top redraft pick is a safer bet than the top rookie pick. So how can the safer pick, more flexible pick be worth less than the riskier more limited pick?

Let me start by saying that comparing rookie draft picks in a dynasty league to picks in a redraft league is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. So when I make it, I'm talking about how much of a competitive advantage that pick gives you over your opponents in that league. In other words, who is in a better situation, the 1.1 redraft pick owner or the 1.1 rookie draft pick owner?

What we're talking about here is value. In a redraft league, when comparing two players, the more valuable player is the player that gives you the bigger edge over your opponents over the course of the season. That's what VBD is all about. It gives you a means to evaluate the worth of players at different positions by asking, "What player gives me more of a competitive edge against my opponents?". However, if you wanted to simplify the discussion down to one position, namely running backs, it gets pretty easy. In a redraft league, the best RB is the one that scores the most points. (The cynic might argue that the best RB is the one that gets you to your playoffs and then scores the most then, but I'll talk about short vs. long term value in a second).

But the value of dynasty players is more complicated. Suppose I look into a crystal ball, and can predict two players futures and offered you a choice of which you wanted. The first player is Priest Holmes, who I see having his best year ever in 2005, being the #1 RB by a wide margin and leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl. Unfortunately the downside is that he retires at the end of the season. The other player is Ronnie Brown, who is drafted by the Dolphins. Due to their sub-par line and poor QB play, Brown has a pretty average rookie year. However, the Dolphins shape up in 06 and Brown goes down to be one of the greatest runners to ever play the game, finishing in the top 5 year in and year out. If you could have your pick of one of these two players in a dynasty league, which would you rather have?

The answer of course is "it depends". Clearly, if you're a team that is built to win in 05, but whose only hole is at RB, Holmes is your guy. Adding Holmes to your team, likely elevates your team to a super bowl crown. But if your team is a doormat, Holmes likely only raises your team to an average level and then he's gone. So in that case, you would want Brown by far.

So when we're talking about dynasty value, we need to be clear whether we're talking about long term or short term value. However, unless you fall into that "one player away from the super bowl" situation, you want to maximize your long term value. If you're picking 1.1 in a rookie draft, you likely got their one of two ways. Either your team stinks, or you're an owner savy enough to trade for the 1.1 pick. If you're a doormat, you want to maximize your long term value. If you moved up to #1 to get that pick, you're savy enough to want to maximize your long term value as wel.. So when we talk about the "value" of a rookie pick, I'm going to assume we're talking about long term value.

So getting back to the matter hand: What's the long term value of a dynasty player? All things being equal, its the value of a player multiplied by the number of years that player does it. For example, if we're comparing two RBs that will each average 100 points a year, the RB that will play six more years is twice as valuable as the RB that plays three more years. Things are rarely this simple though, if you really want to compare value you have to talk about distribution of those points. Plus there is no good way to project a player's stats over his career. Nonetheless it should be clear though that long term value in a dynasty league is similar to redraft value, but the extra consideration is the number of seasons the player has left.

So if we just came back for the future and wanted to plot the long term value of all available players (vets and rookies) we could just add up their numbers from each year (VBD if comparing different positions, FF points if we're comparing players of the same position). What we'd see is that the distribution would be quite different. The handful of very young elite RBs would be signifigantly worth more than any other RB. Guys like Kevin Jones, McGahee and Tomlinson would blow away anyone else. Not only do these guys figure to outperform their counterparts in the years ahead, they figure to do it for a good number of years.

This gets back to what I stated in a previous post, that young stud RBs are so valuable in a dynasty league as to be almost untradable. They are simply worth leaps and bounds more than any other player. Much more so than a redraft league. If you have three good RBs in a redraft and only one good WR, why not trade the RB for a WR and maximize your chances in that league to win? But in a dynasty league, trade away that RB and he'll be very difficult to replace. You have to think about next year, when one of your starters might retire.

So when we're comparing rookie to redraft picks, it doesn't make sense to ask who will be available with the pick, it makes sense to ask how much of an advantage that pick gives you. The top rookie pick carries more risk than the comparable redraft pick. In this regard, the rookie pick cedes some ground to the redraft pick. However, a young rookie runner is so valuable in a dynasty league, that the pick is worth the risk.

Kevin Jones was a middle of the pack runner in a redraft league last year, but if you took him in your rookie draft last year, you now have a player valued as the #2-#5 overall player in all of FF. You have a player that is so valuable as to be almost untradable. What I'm getting that Kevin Jones in dynasty is worth leaps and bounds more than Kevin Jones in a redraft league. So much so that the #1 pick in a rookie draft that gives you an opportunity to draft a player like jim, is worth more than any pick in a redraft league.

:goodposting: - Makes alot of sense to me. This is only my second year at dynasty and I did trade up to 1.01. It is a littly scary because it can be a boom or bust with 3 comparable RB's and you get the first pick. If you pick right - success, if your wrong, well time will tell. Just my 2 cents
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#25 EBF

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 02:31 PM

Great posts Sammy. I agree with almost everything you said. I'm in four dynasty leagues. I have pick 1.02 in one of those leagues (12 teams) and I've received several trade offers for it. I think I've already turned down two mid-late firsts plus a mid second. You just can't put a low price on a chance at one of the top rookie runners. Sure, they could all bust, but these guys have so much potential value that you have to view them as star players. In a different dynasty league I have Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Deuce McAllister. You're right to suggest that these guys simply aren't available. I've received a lot of interest for them, but they're not going anywhere anytime soon. One of the great things about dynasty leagues is that you don't lose your team after a year. It's great to build a RB corps with three top ten dynasty backs and know that you'll be able to keep them around as long as you want to. That's part of the appeal for me.

#26 Will Grant

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 02:42 PM

Great posts Sammy. I agree with almost everything you said. I'm in four dynasty leagues. I have pick 1.02 in one of those leagues (12 teams) and I've received several trade offers for it. I think I've already turned down two mid-late firsts plus a mid second. You just can't put a low price on a chance at one of the top rookie runners. Sure, they could all bust, but these guys have so much potential value that you have to view them as star players.

In a different dynasty league I have Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, and Deuce McAllister. You're right to suggest that these guys simply aren't available. I've received a lot of interest for them, but they're not going anywhere anytime soon. One of the great things about dynasty leagues is that you don't lose your team after a year. It's great to build a RB corps with three top ten dynasty backs and know that you'll be able to keep them around as long as you want to. That's part of the appeal for me.

Great example of why you can't trade these guys in a dynasty league. All 3 Backs missed time (some a LOT more than others) due to injury. In a Dynasty league, it's not like you can just run out and grab someone off of FA wire... A power team with 3 runners needs that 3rd one for off weeks and injuries....

I would agree.. You'd have to be offering a truckload of talent/picks to make me give up one of these guys..
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#27 jurb26

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 02:56 PM

As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true. So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:LTK.JonesPortisWillis ????Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

#28 Tick

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 02:57 PM

I haven't read the rest of the thread yet, but thought I'd post something from our Zealots rookie draft last season. The first number is the overall pick number that they were taken in my Z34 draft.Just for fun, here's where those players were drafted in Z34:4 1.1 Dallas - Kevin Jones (det) RB8 1.2 Atlanta - Steven Jackson (stl) RB98 1.3 Kansas City - Eli Manning (nyg) QB54 1.4 Minnesota - Larry Fitzgerald (ari) WR10 1.5 St. Louis - Julius Jones (dal) RB15 1.6 Tampa Bay - Tatum Bell (denv) RB69 1.7 Pittsburgh - Chris Perry (cin) RB37 1.8 Dallas - Roy Williams (det) WR67 1.9 Tampa Bay - Kellen Winslow (clev) TE182 1.10 Miami - Reggie Williams (jax) WR44 1.11 Dallas - Lee Evans (buf) WR63 1.12 Denver - Ben Roethlisberger (pit) QB 145 2.1 Kansas City -Greg Jones (jax) RB138 2.2 Detroit - Sean Taylor (wash) DB243 2.3 Miami - Rashon Woods (sf) WR - traded to Detroit 5/340 2.4 Detroit - Michael Clayton (tb) WR146 2.5 Detroit - Cedric Cobbs (ne) RB - traded to Miami 5/3139 2.6 Pittsburgh - Phillip Rivers (sd) QB104 2.7 Cleveland - Mewelde Moore (min) RB128 2.8 St. Louis - JP Losman (buf) QB189 2.9 Minnesota - Ben Troupe (ten) TE257 2.10 Cincinnati - Michael Jenkins (atl) WR133 2.11 Atlanta - D.J. Williams (denv) LB206 2.12 Dallas - Michael Turner (sd) RB 84 3.1 Dallas - Keary Colbert (car) WR315 3.2 Atlanta - Kenechi Udeze (min) DL195 3.3 Kansas City - Teddy Lehman (det) LB97 3.4 Minnesota - Jonathon Vilma (nyj) LB237 3.5 St. Louis - Will Smith (no) DL332 3.6 Cleveland - Devery Henderson (no) WR459 3.7 Pittsburgh - Derrick Hamilton (sf) WR267 3.8 Denver - DeAngelo Hall (atl) DB102 3.9 Tampa Bay - Dunta Robinson (hou) DB444 3.10 Miami - Devard Darling (bal) WR372 3.11 Miami (from Detroit) - Matt Schaub (atl) QB343 3.12 Miami (fromDetroit) - Sean Jones (clev) DB trade 5/3 393 4.1 Detroit (from Miami) - Daryl Smith (jax) LB trade 5/3250 4.2 Detroit - Karlos Dansby (ari) LB496 4.3 Miami - Ernest Wilford (jax) WR218 4.4 Tampa Bay - Darius Watts (denv) WR Denver (was 4.5) - Bumped - timer expired465 4.5 (was 4.6) Pittsburgh - Troy Fleming (ten) RB449 4.6 (was 4.7) Cleveland - Dontarrious Thomas (min) LB244 4.7 (was 4.8 ) St. Louis - Robert Sanders (ind) DB421 4.8 (was 4.9) Minnesota - Ricardo Colclough (pit) DB201 4.9 (was4.10) Kansas City - Michael Boulware (sea) DB270 4.10 (was 4.11) Atlanta - Ben Watson (ne) TE435 4.11 (was 4.12 )Dallas - Bernard Berrian (chic) WR325 4.12 (was 4.5)Denver - Vince Wilfork (ne) DL 335 5.1 Dallas - Courtney Watson (no) LBUndrafted 5.2 Atlanta - Drew Carter (car) WR229 5.3 Kansas City - Nate Kaeding (sd) K320 5.4 Minnesota - Chris Gamble (sd) DB384 5.5 St. Louis - Josh Scobee (jax) KUndrafted 5.6 Cleveland - Johnnie Morant (oak) WR330 5.7 Pittsburgh - Jerricho Cotchery (nyj) WR596 5.8 Denver - Tommy Harris (chi) DL470 5.9 Tampa Bay - Derrick Ward (nyj) RB380 5.10 Detroit (from Miami ) trade 5/3 - Stuart Scweigert (oak) DBUndrafted 5.11 Detroit - Marcus Tubbs (sea) DL309 5.12 Atlanta - ClarenceMoore (balt) WR 420 6.1 Cincinnati - P K Sam (ne) WR463 6.2 Detroit - Antwaan Odom (ten) DLUndrafted 6.3 Miami - Travis Laboy (ten) DL354 6.4 Tampa Bay - Jason Babin (hou) DL374 6.5 Denver - Kris Wilson (kc) TE408 6.6 Pittsburgh - Bruce Perry (phil) RB322 6.7 Cleveland - Jeff Smoker (stl) QB440 6.8 St. Louis - Luke McCown (cle) QB508 6.9 Minnesota - Gilbert Gardner (min) LB477 6.10 Kansas City - Sammie Parker (kc) WRUndrafted 6.11 Atlanta - Clarence Farmer (sea) RB * invalid-signing398 6.12 Dallas - Echemandu, Adimchinobe RB (Cle)Undrafted 6.12 (b) Atlanta - Ben Hartsock IND TE * (c farmer replacement)

#29 Jackal

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 03:09 PM

when trading in a dynasty league, i think you also have to kind of forecast when your star players will start to take a dive. you have to balance the present with the future. just last night i traded away ahman green away. it was tough to let him go, but i figure 2-3 years maybe of him producing at a high level. who knows what the packers will look like next year or if he will even be around in green bay. i would rather trade him away if i can get a high enough pick to justify it. i traded away green, porter, and my fourth which is 8 out of 8, for the fourth overall, and the fourth in the second round. i gave up a bit but i have depth at other positions where i can focus on taking rbs to replace him. in the past few weeks i have amassed out of a five round draft, 3 firsts, 3 seconds, and two thirds. i think it is worth the risk that is posed when trading away your stars as long as you can get decent odds at replacing them

#30 Finatic

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 03:23 PM

This has to be one of the most insightful threads I have seen from a Dynasty perspective.This should be pinned in Drugrunner's Dynasty thread.Great stuff guys :thumbup: :thumbup:
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#31 Burning Sensation

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 03:25 PM

In two Zealots leagues(2 & 5), i have built VERY good teams, almost exclusively by aquiring many rookie picks in each of the last two years rookie drafts. Luck certainy plays a part, but obviously the more picks you have the better your chnaces of getting lucky. Rookie picks can usually be had for a pretty cheap price depending when you trade for them. Trading for picks anytime after a previous years rookie draft and right up through the season can be had relatively cheap. However, trying to trade for them in the month leading up to and especially during the rookie draft you will definetly overpay. Actually, what i try to do is trade picks during the current rookie draft for picks in the following years.My most recent example of this came last year in one zealots league where i traded the 1.11 for 3.3 that year and his following years 1st rounder(which ended up being the 1.2 this year)

Edited by Burning Sensation, 10 March 2005 - 03:28 PM.

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absolutely brilliant with Malcolm Kelly as the #1 WR, I agree 100%

I actually think Forte is going to be a major bust, not only Benson stunk in Chicago, they all stunk in Chicago and I don't think Forte is very good at all

Even with Chris Johnson being drafted high, I agree with the low ranking, I think he brings something special (speed) but it's not going to equate into much fantasywise.

I would seriously be stunned if Forte/Johnson/Smith all finished ahead of Dmac, actually I'd be stunned if any of them finished ahead of Dmac

I am taking bets on ROY, I will take McFadden over anyone who wants to pick Forte, it just seems like stealing to me, I'll wager whatever you want.


#32 beto

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 03:54 PM

As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true. So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:
LT
K.Jones
Portis
Willis
????

Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

:goodposting:

Sammy keeps talking about redraft picks. I'm talking about the equivalent pick in an initial dynasty draft. No way do I pass on guys you mention for Ronnie Brown.
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#33 jurb26

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 04:56 PM



As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true.  So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:
LT
K.Jones
Portis
Willis
????

Or how about this.  If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one).  Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

:goodposting:

Sammy keeps talking about redraft picks. I'm talking about the equivalent pick in an initial dynasty draft. No way do I pass on guys you mention for Ronnie Brown.

Actually it may be a fun little exercise to ask people to rank there Dynasty RBs by including BOTH redraft players and rookies into one whole group. Yeah I know this is very difficult and subject to change, but still very intreging to the context of this thread. If anyone places R.Brown or any rookie RB as the #1 I think I'll attempt to bend over the moon and kiss my own........ :D

By saying that the ROOKIE #1 is more valuable than the REDRAFT #1 is this not what we are actaully trying to say, or at least impl? If this is true, then if given the option to combine the 2, the rookie SHOULD still go as #1. He is the more valuable player...... right?

Edited by jurb26, 10 March 2005 - 04:58 PM.


#34 Turbo Punch

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 07:05 PM

Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

I looked back at my initial dynasty draft last year that was held in late August. It was a single draft that included 2004 rookies.

1st rookie K Jones - Pick 2.03. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 2.04.
2nd rookie Jackson- Pick 3.11. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 2.08.
3rd rookie J Jones - Pick 4.02. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 3.02.
4th rookie Winslow - Pick 4.03. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 3.11.
5th rookie Fitzgerald - Pick 5.08. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 5.05.
6th rookie Bell - Pick 6.12. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 5.08.
7th rookie Roy Williams - Pick 7.02. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 7.02.
8th rookie Manning - Pick 8.07. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 9.01.
9th rookie Perry - Pick 8.10. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 11.01.
10th rookie Watts - Pick 9.01. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 12.06
11th rookie Reggie Williams - Pick 9.03. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 13.06
12th rookie Evans - Pick 9.04. Compared to Beto's equivalent value of 15.01.

This is just a single sample but compared to Beto's value he is right on for the 1st pick, a little high for picks 2 & 3, close for 4 & 5, high for 6, close for 7& 8, and too low for 9 - 12.

This sample does show a big drop around the 6th pick.

Edited by Turbo Punch, 10 March 2005 - 08:00 PM.


#35 beto

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 07:22 PM

Awesome datapoint TP.I remember the 1st year of my dynasty back in '98 and we did it auction style and included rookies. The rookies that year were Moss, Manning, Fred Taylor, Curtis Enis and Duce Staley. All of them went for cheap. Who knew? Dynasty was so new back then.The key thing to remember about my numbers is they are a guideline to be adjusted depending on draft class. Last years class was LOADED and it looks like your league recognized that and drafted appropriately. You don't have to go back too far to get such memorable players as Travis Prentice, JR Redmond and RUEBEN Droughns going in the 1st 12 picks to see those bottom numbers needing adjustment. :D

Edited by beto, 10 March 2005 - 07:24 PM.

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#36 fatness

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 07:47 PM

So that's the bottom line for me: To win you need RB talent -> This talent has to be replenished over time -> The only way to replenish it is through the rookie draft. Therefore, the top couple of rookie picks are extremely valuable. Do they carry risk? You bet. But if you want to achieve dynasty success, its a risk you have to be willing to take.

That really summarizes the difference between dynasty drafts and redrefts. If you want LT, for example, and miss out on him in a redraft league, you can always have another shot at him next year. Or if he's out injured for awhile you can trade Tiki Barber and someone who is hot for him. In a dynasty league, however, your only shot of getting him (barring overpaying in a huge trade) is as a rookie. That's why chances are taken so early and often in dynasty rookie drafts, and in the initial veteran draft for dynasty leagues. You're drafting a guy for multiple years, not just one year.

#37 EBF

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 08:58 PM




So that's the bottom line for me: To win you need RB talent -> This talent has to be replenished over time -> The only way to replenish it is through the rookie draft. Therefore, the top couple of rookie picks are extremely valuable. Do they carry risk? You bet. But if you want to achieve dynasty success, its a risk you have to be willing to take.

That really summarizes the difference between dynasty drafts and redrefts. If you want LT, for example, and miss out on him in a redraft league, you can always have another shot at him next year. Or if he's out injured for awhile you can trade Tiki Barber and someone who is hot for him. In a dynasty league, however, your only shot of getting him (barring overpaying in a huge trade) is as a rookie. That's why chances are taken so early and often in dynasty rookie drafts, and in the initial veteran draft for dynasty leagues. You're drafting a guy for multiple years, not just one year.

Yep. I took Charles Rogers at 4.03 in a 2003 initial dynasty draft. I can honestly say that it wasn't a bad pick. His talent warranted the selection. I had no way of knowing that he'd get two freak injuries in two years. I still would rather have him than Koren Robinson, Plaxico Burress, Marty Booker, Donte Stallworth, and a number of the other WRs who went in the same range.

#38 Chase Stuart

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:10 PM

Sammy and Beto are both making two great -- and distinctly different -- points. I think that's where the confusion lies.Beto: Rookie pick 1.01 should be expected to perform like a redraft pick 2.04. This actually makes sense intuitively, because the top rookie RB will generally get drafted in the second round. Last year none of them warranted such a high selection in most drafts, but that's balanced out when you remember that rookie Ricky Williams was a first rounder in a lot of leagues.Sammy: He's saying that rookie pick 1.01 is worth MORE in a dynasty rookie draft than pick 1.01 is worth in a redraft. This makes sense too. Think VBD here. It's like saying the top RB is worth more than the top QB, even though the top QB will score the most points. Sure the top pick in a redraft will be expected to score the most points (duh), but the third rounder in a redraft will score a lot too. But in a dynasty rookie draft, the third rounder might score zero. And the different between rookie pick 1.01 and rookie pick 1.09 is a lot larger than the one between redraft pick 1.01 and redraft 1.09.
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#39 jurb26

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:17 PM

Sammy and Beto are both making two great -- and distinctly different -- points. I think that's where the confusion lies.

Beto: Rookie pick 1.01 should be expected to perform like a redraft pick 2.04. This actually makes sense intuitively, because the top rookie RB will generally get drafted in the second round. Last year none of them warranted such a high selection in most drafts, but that's balanced out when you remember that rookie Ricky Williams was a first rounder in a lot of leagues.

Sammy: He's saying that rookie pick 1.01 is worth MORE in a dynasty rookie draft than pick 1.01 is worth in a redraft. This makes sense too. Think VBD here. It's like saying the top RB is worth more than the top QB, even though the top QB will score the most points. Sure the top pick in a redraft will be expected to score the most points (duh), but the third rounder in a redraft will score a lot too. But in a dynasty rookie draft, the third rounder might score zero. And the different between rookie pick 1.01 and rookie pick 1.09 is a lot larger than the one between redraft pick 1.01 and redraft 1.09.

To be honest I don't think that was Sammy's point, or at lest implied one. He was saying that he would rather have the 1.1 Rookie pick over the 1.1 Redraft pick. Thus stating that the rookie you could get with that 1.1 pick is a better overall player than the 1.1 redraft player due to age. He did not however explain how a proven comodity that was nearly just as young and sometimes younger than the rookie fits into this mix. I mean seriously what sense does it make to value R.Brown over Portis, Willis, Jones right now. From reading his statements though, this is the impression I was given. :confused:

#40 EBF

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:18 PM

I agree with Chase's assessment and I believe he's right on both points.

#41 jurb26

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Posted 10 March 2005 - 10:20 PM

Well I am understanding Beto's point full well. Maybe we just (or maybe just I) need to wait till Sammy comes back to clarify it a little better.

#42 SammyJankis

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Posted 11 March 2005 - 07:02 AM

As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true. So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:
LT
K.Jones
Portis
Willis
????

Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

Of course not. In this thread I said that Tomlinson would be the top choice in a dynasty league easily and debated the other top guys, all of whom would be ahead of any rookie.

This recent thread debated players that it would make sense to trade the #1 rookie pick for. EBF included a nice list of players that I would agree with.

Comparing rookie picks in a dynasty league to picks in a redraft league is a confusing exercise. Value in any situation is relative, that is, to evaluate something's value you have to compare it to something else. When you say "What redraft pick does the 1.01 rookie pick compare to?" what are you asking? Having a redraft assumes that all players in the league are available, while having a dynasty rookie draft assumes that the only players available are rookies and possibly free agents. These are two completely different situations. This is why I said that its an apples to oranges comparison.

The point that I was making is that having a top redraft pick gives you a small competitive advantage over your leaguemates. But having a top rookie pick gives you a tremendous advantage over your leaguemates.
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#43 -OZ-

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Posted 11 March 2005 - 07:09 AM



As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true. So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:
LT
K.Jones
Portis
Willis
????

Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

Of course not. In this thread I said that Tomlinson would be the top choice in a dynasty league easily and debated the other top guys, all of whom would be ahead of any rookie.

This recent thread debated players that it would make sense to trade the #1 rookie pick for. EBF included a nice list of players that I would agree with.

Comparing rookie picks in a dynasty league to picks in a redraft league is a confusing exercise. Value in any situation is relative, that is, to evaluate something's value you have to compare it to something else. When you say "What redraft pick does the 1.01 rookie pick compare to?" what are you asking? Having a redraft assumes that all players in the league are available, while having a dynasty rookie draft assumes that the only players available are rookies and possibly free agents. These are two completely different situations. This is why I said that its an apples to oranges comparison.

The point that I was making is that having a top redraft pick gives you a small competitive advantage over your leaguemates. But having a top rookie pick gives you a tremendous advantage over your leaguemates.

Agreed, but instead of comparing the 1.01R to a redraft pick, I'd compare it just to an initial dynasty draft, the other is extremely difficult, as it is anytime you compare different formats.

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#44 SammyJankis

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Posted 11 March 2005 - 07:14 AM



As good as the info you have provided is Sammy, I just don't know if I belieev all of it to be true. So are you telling me that you would want R.Brown (or insert whatever rookie #1 you want here) over the likes of:
LT
K.Jones
Portis
Willis
????

Or how about this. If the drafts were held after the NFL draft and all players were included (rookie and redraft combined into one). Would you now take that unproven rookie ahead of young proven comodities like: Portis (23), Jones (23), and Willis (23) all of which have proven they are not busts and are just as young as the rookies anyway?

:goodposting:

Sammy keeps talking about redraft picks. I'm talking about the equivalent pick in an initial dynasty draft. No way do I pass on guys you mention for Ronnie Brown.

Fair enough. I might have misunderstood a bit.

The answer to that question is "it depends" big time. That's going to vary widely from year to year, depending on the strength of the rookie class.

As I mentioned upthread, you can expect 1-4 elite runners from most rookie classes. Those runners would command a very high pick in an initial dynasty draft. Last year's class had four elite runners: Kevin Jones, Stephen Jackson, Julius Jones and Tatum Bell. You could possibly lump Chris Perry in as well, but most folks had him ranked lower.

Rookie QBs and WRs are significantly less valuable.

To equate rookie picks with initial dynasty picks is going to vary so much from year to year, that I don't know how valuable a generic list would be. It makes more sense to rank specific players post draft, but its too early for that for this rookie class.
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#45 Marauder

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Posted 11 March 2005 - 07:45 AM

Agreed, but instead of comparing the 1.01R to a redraft pick, I'd compare it just to an initial dynasty draft, the other is extremely difficult, as it is anytime you compare different formats.

But even in an initial Dynasty draft, having the #1 overall pick is not that much of an advantage over having a pick in the middle of the first round. You are still going to get a stud in the first round and a very good player in the second round. In a rookie draft there is a huge dropoff between the #1 pick and a pick in the middle of the first round.

#46 Mr. Vegas

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Posted 12 March 2005 - 08:15 PM

I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.

This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with a draft classes of varying talent and depth.

First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.

1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.

2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.

3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.

Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.

Rookie pick #  =  Veteran pick #       1.1      =        2.4
The perfect sting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick, but the fact is that no matter how much you love a player until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.

      1.2      =        2.8
I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.

      1.3      =        3.2
The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.

      1.4      =        3.11
The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.

      1.5      =        5.5
This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.

      1.6      =        5.8
I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.

      1.7      =        7.2
The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.

      1.8      =        9.1
The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.

      1.9      =        11.1
Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.

      1.10      =        12.6       1.11      =        13.6       1.12      =        15.1
I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!

I know alot of us are in dynasty leagues with each other but I hope this can generate some discussion. I would love to see the data from anyone else who has saved it. I have mine in a excel table and would be happy to share. Shoot me a PM.

Great job Guy.

I wish I knew you when I had my Dynasty drafts the last couple of years. :thumbup:

#47 beto

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Posted 13 March 2005 - 06:25 AM

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#48 Crippler

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Posted 13 March 2005 - 07:29 AM

I think and I have not seen it alot in here is the risk of rookie picks. Too much reference being put in the 2004 class which is one of the best in the top 10 years. Lets do a more realistic comparison of picks going back to 2003.I will use 5 different leagues for comparison factors and will eliminate vets that can be drafted out of each. These are all dynasty leagues. One if 12, 2 are 16(One is done in April before NFL draft and is QB strong and the other in August) and 1 is 24 team league and 14 team league. 20031.1 Charlie Rogers, Byron Leftwich, Rogers, Rogers, Leftwich(this year was not worth 2.4)1.2 Andre Johnson, Carson Palmer. Johnson, Johnson, L. Johnson(Close but no cigar)1.3 Justin Fargas, Rogers, Onterio Smith, Leftwich, Rogers(Lovely)1.4 O. Smith, Larry Johnson, Leftwich, L. Johnson, A. johnson(Not close)1.5 Labrandon Toefield, McGahee, A. Johnson, McGahee, McGahee(what I find in most drafts where the steals happen)1.6 Leftwich, McGahee, McGahee, Palmer, Boller(Great value again)1.7 Artose Pinner, Chris Brown, Kyle Boller, Boller. Palmer(1 good one)1.8 L. Johnson, Palmer. O. Smith, Fargas, Fargas1.9 McGahee, Bryant Johnnson, Musa Smith, B. Johnson, B. Johnson(someone got a steal)1.10 Tyrone Calico, Tony Hollings, Lee Suggs, Terrance Newman, C. Brown(Better than pick 1)1.11 Palmer, Toefield, Chris Simms, Chris Brown, O. Smith1.12 B. Johnson, Boss Bailey, Rex Grossman, Kelly Washington, K. Washington1.13 Doug Jolley, Boller, Fargas. Grossman, Grossman1.14 K. Washington. , Nick Barnett, K. Washington, Taylor Jacobs, M. Smith1.15 Chris Brown. Terrell Suggs. C. Brown. Calico. A. Pinner1.16 Jacobs, Micheal Doss, T. Suggs. O. Smith, Jacobs20021.1 William Green, Foster, Green, Green, Green1.2 TJ Duckett, Portis, Carr, Harrington, Carr1.3 Deshaun Foster, Green, Duckett, foster, harrington1.4 Clinton Portis, Duckett, Harrington, Portis. Foster1.5 Dunate Stallworth, Carr, Stallworth, Carr, Duckett1.6 Jeremy Shockey. Shockey, Foster, Duckett, Walker1.7 Johnathon Wells, Julius Peppers, Walker, Roy Williams, Stallworth1.8 David Carr, Stallworth, Shockey, Peppers, Bryant1.9 Ashley Lelie. Walker, Peppers, Stallworth, Portis1.10 Joey Harrington, Josh Reed, Portis, Lelie, Shockey1.11 Javon Walker, Lelie, Lelie, Bryant, Lelie1.12 Antonio Bryant, Wells, Bryant, Gaffney, Peppers1.13 Jeremy Stevens, Harrington, Gaffney, Wells, Wells1.14 jabbar Gaffeny, Gaffney. Patrick Ramsey, Reed, Washington1.15 Daniel Graham, Bryant, Graham. Shockey, Gaffney1.16 Brian Westbrook Lamar Gordon, Reed, Ramsey, Reche Caldwell20011.1 Micheal Bennett, Bennett, Vick, Bennett1,2 Ladian Tomlinson, Tomlinson, McAllister, Tomlinson1.3 Kevan Barlow, Henry, Tomlinson, Henry1.4 David Terrell, Robinson, Terrell, Thomas1.5 Travis Henry, Vick, Robinson, Terrell1.6 Deuce McAllister, Barlow, Gardner, Vick1.7 Koren Robinson, Jackson, Bennett, McAllister1.8 James Jackson, McAllister. Jordan, Robinson1.9 Rod Gardner, Chris Weinke, Drew Brees, Jackson1.10 Anthony Thomas, Terrell, C. Johnson, Heap1.12 Chad Johnson, Garnder, Thomas, Barlow1.13 Quincy Morgan, Mitchell, S. Moss, Moss1.14 Freddie Mitchell, Morgan, Henry, Morgan1.15 Todd Heap. Anthony Thomas, Mitchell, C. Johnson1.16 Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne. Morgan. , MitchellWish I had time to do 2002 and 2001 but will later. I know you will find the exact same thing that the steals always seem to be a little later as situation changes everyones mind. I wish I had the 1.1 in leagues and played with you guys. It would be gone in the end because success to failure is way to heavy and I will take the Larry Johnson in the world now after you have sat on him for 2 years waiting and thinking he is a failure. Instant success is even harder to find. I think the ratings at the top are way too high and lower ones are too low in the end.

Edited by Crippler, 13 March 2005 - 09:00 AM.


#49 The Man Who Met Andy Griffith

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Posted 13 March 2005 - 07:44 AM

I think and I have not seen it alot in here is the risk of rookie picks. Too much reference being put in the 2004 class which is one of the best in the top 10 years. Lets do a more realistic comparison of picks going back to 2003.


I will use 4 different leagues for comparison factors and will eliminate vets that can be drafted out of each. These are all dynasty leagues. One if 12, 2 are 16(One is done in April before NFL draft and is QB strong and the other in August) and 1 is 24 team league.

2003

1.1 Charlie Rogers, Byron Leftwich, Rogers, Rogers(this year was not worth 2.4)
1.2 Andre Johnson, Carson Palmer. Johnson, Johnson(Close but no cigar)
1.3 Justin Fargas, Rogers, Onterio Smith, Leftwich(Lovely)
1.4 O. Smith, Larry Johnson, Leftwich, L. Johnson(Not close)
1.5 Labrandon Toefield, McGahee, A. Johnson, McGahee(what I find in most drafts where the steals happen)
1.6 Leftwich, McGahee, McGahee, Palmer(Great value again)
1.7 Artose Pinner, Chris Brown, Kyle Boller, Boller(1 good one)
1.8 L. Johnson, Palmer. O. Smith, Fargas
1.9 McGahee, Bryant Johnnson, Musa Smith, B. Johnson(someone got a steal)
1.10 Tyrone Calico, Tony Hollings, Lee Suggs, Terrance Newman(Better than pick 1)
1.11 Palmer, Toefield, Chris Simms, Chris Brown
1.12 B. Johnson, Boss Bailey, Rex Grossman, Kelly Washington
1.13 Doug Jolley, Boller, Fargas. Grossman
1.14 K. Washington. , Nick Barnett, K. Washington, Taylor Jacobs
1.15 Chris Brown. Terrell Suggs. C. Brown. Calico
1.16 Jacobs, Micheal Doss, T. Suggs. O. Smith

Wish I had time to do 2002 and 2001 but will later. I know you will find the exact same thing that the steals always seem to be a little later as situation changes everyones mind.

I wish I had the 1.1 in leagues and played with you guys. It would be gone in the end because success to failure is way to heavy and I will take the Larry Johnson in the world now after you have sat on him for 2 years waiting and thinking he is a failure. Instant success is even harder to find. I think the ratings at the top are way too high and lower ones are too low in the end.

Whoever had 1.06 in league two did a nice job getting McGahee after he had already been drafted. I'd never be able to convince my commish to let that slide.

#50 beto

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Posted 13 March 2005 - 08:11 AM

I think and I have not seen it alot in here is the risk of rookie picks. Too much reference being put in the 2004 class which is one of the best in the top 10 years. Lets do a more realistic comparison of picks going back to 2003.


I will use 4 different leagues for comparison factors and will eliminate vets that can be drafted out of each. These are all dynasty leagues. One if 12, 2 are 16(One is done in April before NFL draft and is QB strong and the other in August) and 1 is 24 team league.

2003

1.1 Charlie Rogers, Byron Leftwich,  Rogers, Rogers(this year was not worth 2.4)

Wish I had time to do 2002 and 2001 but will later.  I know you will find the exact same thing that the steals always seem to be a little later as situation changes everyones mind.

I wish I had the 1.1 in leagues and played with you guys. It would be gone in the end because success to failure is way to heavy and I will take the Larry Johnson in the world now after you have sat on him for 2 years waiting and thinking he is a failure. Instant success is even harder to find. I think the ratings at the top are way too high and lower ones are too low in the end.

Crippler, I love what you did here. This is exactly the approach I took, but I think that once you look at '01 and '02 (I went back to '99) you will see that rookie picks go up in value from what we saw in '03. I choose 2.4 as an average of those drafts since '99.

Edited by beto, 13 March 2005 - 08:12 AM.

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