Now is the best time of the year to improve your dynasty teams. Owners are still absorbing the happenings of the 2005 season and incorporating them into the long term value of players. There is a fine line between putting too much weight in the 05 performance and not correctly putting the year in the larger context of the player's career, and being too slow to realize that the 05 version of the player is the "new" player, and not an aberration. Being 3-6 months ahead of the conventional wisdom is crucial here. Many owners are yet to reckon with the early offseason developments, such as changes in coaching staff and team philosophies. If you can project the draft/offseason movement with decent accuracy and predict how some of the situations that will play out, you can seriously improve the assets of your dynasty team in the next few months.
With that, I give you the first offseason edition of Buy Low, Sell High:
Buy Low
David Carr, QB, HOU - Gary Kubiak is a QB guru. The Texans gave Carr a sizable roster bonus and a big vote of confidence. The Texans are likely to add "ultimate weapon" Reggie Bush (who would also boost the passing game) or one of the best young OTs out there in a trade down scenario. If you're skeptical about Carr, just look at the transformation of Plummer's numbers from his last year in Arizona to his first year in Denver.
Arnaz Battle, WR, SF - Battle was the go-to receiver in the offense last year when healthy, and as a QB to WR convert, he still has upside in his development. Eric Johnson is made of porcelain and Brandon Lloyd is just not dependable. Expect Battle to be the #1 target in the passing offense this year.
Koren Robinson, WR, MIN/??? - Its hard to believe that troubled players have really turned it around, but Koren has. The talent is unquestioned and Koren should be a full-time starter next year on a team that wants him.
Philip Rivers, QB, SD - Unless Rivers is a total fraud, he should put up numbers close to Brees. Of course there is still a chance Brees comes back to SD with his tail between his legs if no one pays him, but I think at least a few teams will be happy to pony up some $$$ to sign Drew, and the Chargers players are already endorsing Rivers. This could be a chance to get a top 12-15 QB on the cheap.
Randy Moss, WR, OAK - Yes, Moss has been hurt for good chunks of the last 2 seasons. Yes, the QB situation in Oakland is up in the air right now. Still, Moss is young for a such an established player, and he is still the most lethal deep threat in the league. I am seeing him last way too long in initial dynasty drafts. I don't believe he's turned brittle, and Moss is the rare WR that makes any QB a fantasy success, opposite of the typical situation where a good QB makes a WR better for fantasy.
Kellen Winslow, TE, CLE - Winslow has put all the weight back on that he lost after suffering a staph infection. Cleveland is making a lot of noise about letting Antonio Bryant go, and that means Winslow enters the year as the #1 target in the passing offense with Braylon Edwards likely out for the beginning of the season. Even if Cleveland brings in a WR to replace Bryant, Winslow will still figure big into the passing offense.
Ahman Green, RB, GB - Green's value has bottomed out, and its time to buy again. All signs point to a return to GB at a discount, and I don't see how he isn't the starter if that happens.
Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Crayton's emergence as the best playmaking WR in Dallas's offense was cut short by a leg injury. I don't project the Cowboys to take a WR in the first, leaving Crayton as the only WR of the future on the team. Like Battle, he's a QB to WR convert who will only get better.
Corey Dillon, RB, NE - Dillon was never completely healthy last year, and NE's line was suffering along with him. I believe it will cost NE more to cut him than to keep him, so he's likely to be the feature back for at least one more year. This buy low recommendation is strictly for teams that think they are one RB away from a title in 06.
Ben Watson, TE, NE - Ben Watson's role in NE's offense will only increase, as 2005 was functionally his rookie year. His athletic ability is stunning and you know that the Patriots will find ways to utilize his talent to the fullest extent they can. I expect him to make a leap to the top 8 TEs this year, especially if Givens leaves and/or Brown retires.
Duce Staley, RB, PIT - Staley is one of my favorite fliers for next year - he would probably come extremely cheap unless he's paired with Parker for insurance. Staley's knee was not right from the beginning of the year, and he could be back in form with a full offseason to recover. Bettis's retirement opens up a huge door for him if the Steelers do not seek a RB in free agency or the draft. Staley did look extremely lackluster anytime he took the field last year, but the possible short term return is very high for a small cost.
Ben Troupe, TE, TEN - Like Watson, Troupe was only beginning to come into his own last year after injuries plagued him in his rookie year. Troupe showed the ability to be a #1 target last year, on a team devoid of true #1s at the WR position. Chow's TE focused offense only helps him. Expect a Cooley-like leap to the top tier of TEs.
Cedrick Wilson, WR, PIT - Wilson is almost indistinguishable from Antwaan Randle-el when he's out in a pattern, and he might be a better route runner than ARE. I just don't see how ARE gets re-signed by the Steelers because of how in demand he is. I expect Wilson to absorb a good part of ARE's numbers and be a serviceable WR3 for fantasy this year.
Rookie picks in the 30s - You've probably already heard me say this a lot, but I don't see that much of a dropoff from the quality of rookies around 20-25 to the quality of rookies around 40-45, especially if you are looking WR.
Sell High
Mike Anderson, RB, DEN - The Broncos are making no secret of their desire to upgrade at RB, whether it be through FA, the draft, or just giving Bell another shot to show he can be a feature back. Anderson was Denver's best RB last year, but it seems impossible that Shanny will stand pat with what he has at RB in the offseason. Anderson's usefulness to the Donkeys in any number of ways makes it even more likely he goes back to being a role player in 06. This is the time to cash Anderson in.
Edgerrin James, RB, IND - This is a tough call, but if you project James out of Indy, then you have to sell while he's still considered an elite RB. Any situation he goes to will be a downgrade from the plum spot he has in Indianapolis. If you can get the kind of package that a top 5 RB fetches in dynasty leagues, i would probably pull the trigger.
Jake Plummer, QB, DEN - And here we have the perfect negative of the Carr situation. Plummer loses the guy who broke everything down for him and turned him into a good NFL QB. One warning on selling Plummer is that Denver *could* acquire TO, which would be a big boost for his fantasy value. Its probably advisable to hold Jake until that situation plays out. However, if TO goes elsewhere, Id say its time to unload Plummer while his value is firmly in the 2nd tier of QBs.
Samkon Gado, RB, GB - I like feel good stories as much as the next guy, but GB will not enter the year with Gado as the unquestioned feature back. While I like what he did last year down the stretch, and think Sam has long term potential, I can't justify the amount his value has leapt in the last few months. He's a nice RB prospect, but not more. The clock will strike midnight for him when Green likely returns (at least for the time being). If you can get top 100 dynasty value for him, I would do it.
Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Anyone who has read Parker threads knows my view on him. He is the Steelers version of the 2005 Tatum Bell as soon as they find someone that can consistently get 4 yards a carry. Like Gado, Im rooting for the guy, but he just is not a feature back, especially not on the Steelers. He could squeeze out another year like 05 if the Steelers don't seriously address the RB situation this offseason, but the prices I have seen Parker fetching are insane (2nd round of initial dynasty drafts?!?!?), and its time to take advantage the very visible long TD run he had in the SB.
Antwaan Randle-el, WR, ???? - keeping with the theme, here's another player that you can cash in at a higher than actual value because of a conspicuous big play in the super bowl. ARE is a really a WR2.5 in the NFL, not a true #2, but better than your typical slot WR. Some team will make him a starter, but he won't put up fantasy starting #s.
Domanick Davis, RB, HOU - It might be too late to unload Davis, but I feel 90% certain Reggie Bush becomes a Texan. Shop him around while there's still the perception of some doubt. Soon this will become the foregone conclusion.
Greg Jones, RB, JAX - Like Denver, I don't see Jacksonville standing pat with their RB situation long term. A change is coming this year or next, whether through free agency or the draft (snake Maroney from their division rival Colts?). Check around your league for the team that thinks Jones has a shot to be "the guy" in Jacksonville. Even if Jones is carrying the ball for Jacksonville, it'll be in an RBBC. Sell while the few 100 yard games he had last year are still fresh in people's memories.
Frank Gore, RB, SF, J.J. Arrington, RB, ARI, Mewelde Moore, RB, MIN - Here's where you need to have the riverboat gambler mentality. I see San Fran (Williams), Arizona (White) and Minnesota (Maroney) as three of the likeliest destinations for the top tier rookie RBs after Bush. Now, there is a lot of risk in trading these guys simply on this hunch. Any of them could be very valuable if their teams go in a different direction, especially Gore, now that Norv Turner is in town. Trying to predict the draft is like playing with fire, and even when you're right, you can be wrong (see 2005 bears RB situation). Still, if you have the stomach to handle these kinds of gambles, I recommend seeing what these guys will fetch in your league.
Rookie picks in the 20s - You've probably already heard me say this a lot (even earlier in this article), but I don't see that much of a dropoff from the quality of rookies around 20-25 to the quality of rookies around 40-45, especially if you are looking WR.
With that, I give you the first offseason edition of Buy Low, Sell High:
Buy Low
David Carr, QB, HOU - Gary Kubiak is a QB guru. The Texans gave Carr a sizable roster bonus and a big vote of confidence. The Texans are likely to add "ultimate weapon" Reggie Bush (who would also boost the passing game) or one of the best young OTs out there in a trade down scenario. If you're skeptical about Carr, just look at the transformation of Plummer's numbers from his last year in Arizona to his first year in Denver.
Arnaz Battle, WR, SF - Battle was the go-to receiver in the offense last year when healthy, and as a QB to WR convert, he still has upside in his development. Eric Johnson is made of porcelain and Brandon Lloyd is just not dependable. Expect Battle to be the #1 target in the passing offense this year.
Koren Robinson, WR, MIN/??? - Its hard to believe that troubled players have really turned it around, but Koren has. The talent is unquestioned and Koren should be a full-time starter next year on a team that wants him.
Philip Rivers, QB, SD - Unless Rivers is a total fraud, he should put up numbers close to Brees. Of course there is still a chance Brees comes back to SD with his tail between his legs if no one pays him, but I think at least a few teams will be happy to pony up some $$$ to sign Drew, and the Chargers players are already endorsing Rivers. This could be a chance to get a top 12-15 QB on the cheap.
Randy Moss, WR, OAK - Yes, Moss has been hurt for good chunks of the last 2 seasons. Yes, the QB situation in Oakland is up in the air right now. Still, Moss is young for a such an established player, and he is still the most lethal deep threat in the league. I am seeing him last way too long in initial dynasty drafts. I don't believe he's turned brittle, and Moss is the rare WR that makes any QB a fantasy success, opposite of the typical situation where a good QB makes a WR better for fantasy.
Kellen Winslow, TE, CLE - Winslow has put all the weight back on that he lost after suffering a staph infection. Cleveland is making a lot of noise about letting Antonio Bryant go, and that means Winslow enters the year as the #1 target in the passing offense with Braylon Edwards likely out for the beginning of the season. Even if Cleveland brings in a WR to replace Bryant, Winslow will still figure big into the passing offense.
Ahman Green, RB, GB - Green's value has bottomed out, and its time to buy again. All signs point to a return to GB at a discount, and I don't see how he isn't the starter if that happens.
Patrick Crayton, WR, DAL - Crayton's emergence as the best playmaking WR in Dallas's offense was cut short by a leg injury. I don't project the Cowboys to take a WR in the first, leaving Crayton as the only WR of the future on the team. Like Battle, he's a QB to WR convert who will only get better.
Corey Dillon, RB, NE - Dillon was never completely healthy last year, and NE's line was suffering along with him. I believe it will cost NE more to cut him than to keep him, so he's likely to be the feature back for at least one more year. This buy low recommendation is strictly for teams that think they are one RB away from a title in 06.
Ben Watson, TE, NE - Ben Watson's role in NE's offense will only increase, as 2005 was functionally his rookie year. His athletic ability is stunning and you know that the Patriots will find ways to utilize his talent to the fullest extent they can. I expect him to make a leap to the top 8 TEs this year, especially if Givens leaves and/or Brown retires.
Duce Staley, RB, PIT - Staley is one of my favorite fliers for next year - he would probably come extremely cheap unless he's paired with Parker for insurance. Staley's knee was not right from the beginning of the year, and he could be back in form with a full offseason to recover. Bettis's retirement opens up a huge door for him if the Steelers do not seek a RB in free agency or the draft. Staley did look extremely lackluster anytime he took the field last year, but the possible short term return is very high for a small cost.
Ben Troupe, TE, TEN - Like Watson, Troupe was only beginning to come into his own last year after injuries plagued him in his rookie year. Troupe showed the ability to be a #1 target last year, on a team devoid of true #1s at the WR position. Chow's TE focused offense only helps him. Expect a Cooley-like leap to the top tier of TEs.
Cedrick Wilson, WR, PIT - Wilson is almost indistinguishable from Antwaan Randle-el when he's out in a pattern, and he might be a better route runner than ARE. I just don't see how ARE gets re-signed by the Steelers because of how in demand he is. I expect Wilson to absorb a good part of ARE's numbers and be a serviceable WR3 for fantasy this year.
Rookie picks in the 30s - You've probably already heard me say this a lot, but I don't see that much of a dropoff from the quality of rookies around 20-25 to the quality of rookies around 40-45, especially if you are looking WR.
Sell High
Mike Anderson, RB, DEN - The Broncos are making no secret of their desire to upgrade at RB, whether it be through FA, the draft, or just giving Bell another shot to show he can be a feature back. Anderson was Denver's best RB last year, but it seems impossible that Shanny will stand pat with what he has at RB in the offseason. Anderson's usefulness to the Donkeys in any number of ways makes it even more likely he goes back to being a role player in 06. This is the time to cash Anderson in.
Edgerrin James, RB, IND - This is a tough call, but if you project James out of Indy, then you have to sell while he's still considered an elite RB. Any situation he goes to will be a downgrade from the plum spot he has in Indianapolis. If you can get the kind of package that a top 5 RB fetches in dynasty leagues, i would probably pull the trigger.
Jake Plummer, QB, DEN - And here we have the perfect negative of the Carr situation. Plummer loses the guy who broke everything down for him and turned him into a good NFL QB. One warning on selling Plummer is that Denver *could* acquire TO, which would be a big boost for his fantasy value. Its probably advisable to hold Jake until that situation plays out. However, if TO goes elsewhere, Id say its time to unload Plummer while his value is firmly in the 2nd tier of QBs.
Samkon Gado, RB, GB - I like feel good stories as much as the next guy, but GB will not enter the year with Gado as the unquestioned feature back. While I like what he did last year down the stretch, and think Sam has long term potential, I can't justify the amount his value has leapt in the last few months. He's a nice RB prospect, but not more. The clock will strike midnight for him when Green likely returns (at least for the time being). If you can get top 100 dynasty value for him, I would do it.
Willie Parker, RB, PIT - Anyone who has read Parker threads knows my view on him. He is the Steelers version of the 2005 Tatum Bell as soon as they find someone that can consistently get 4 yards a carry. Like Gado, Im rooting for the guy, but he just is not a feature back, especially not on the Steelers. He could squeeze out another year like 05 if the Steelers don't seriously address the RB situation this offseason, but the prices I have seen Parker fetching are insane (2nd round of initial dynasty drafts?!?!?), and its time to take advantage the very visible long TD run he had in the SB.
Antwaan Randle-el, WR, ???? - keeping with the theme, here's another player that you can cash in at a higher than actual value because of a conspicuous big play in the super bowl. ARE is a really a WR2.5 in the NFL, not a true #2, but better than your typical slot WR. Some team will make him a starter, but he won't put up fantasy starting #s.
Domanick Davis, RB, HOU - It might be too late to unload Davis, but I feel 90% certain Reggie Bush becomes a Texan. Shop him around while there's still the perception of some doubt. Soon this will become the foregone conclusion.
Greg Jones, RB, JAX - Like Denver, I don't see Jacksonville standing pat with their RB situation long term. A change is coming this year or next, whether through free agency or the draft (snake Maroney from their division rival Colts?). Check around your league for the team that thinks Jones has a shot to be "the guy" in Jacksonville. Even if Jones is carrying the ball for Jacksonville, it'll be in an RBBC. Sell while the few 100 yard games he had last year are still fresh in people's memories.
Frank Gore, RB, SF, J.J. Arrington, RB, ARI, Mewelde Moore, RB, MIN - Here's where you need to have the riverboat gambler mentality. I see San Fran (Williams), Arizona (White) and Minnesota (Maroney) as three of the likeliest destinations for the top tier rookie RBs after Bush. Now, there is a lot of risk in trading these guys simply on this hunch. Any of them could be very valuable if their teams go in a different direction, especially Gore, now that Norv Turner is in town. Trying to predict the draft is like playing with fire, and even when you're right, you can be wrong (see 2005 bears RB situation). Still, if you have the stomach to handle these kinds of gambles, I recommend seeing what these guys will fetch in your league.
Rookie picks in the 20s - You've probably already heard me say this a lot (even earlier in this article), but I don't see that much of a dropoff from the quality of rookies around 20-25 to the quality of rookies around 40-45, especially if you are looking WR.
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I'd put DD as a buy low candidate right now
