Player Spotlight: David Carr, QB, Houston Texans Options

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: David Carr, QB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: David Carr Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

• For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Best of Luck and ENJOY!

[Keys Myaths]

David freakin' Carr.

Alright, Houston can't be as bad as they were last year. The OL should be at least slightly improved with the rookies, and hopefully, a little more experience at the other positions.

But, it's still going to be a rushing offense, and it's still David Carr.

2600 yards passing, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. 320 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs.

[Two Deep]

2200 yds, 13 tds 15 int

130 yds rushing 0 tds

sacked 70 times

I hope they remove from the playbook the one step drop and throw it down the line of scrimmage play.

[Slider]

Carr will benefit just like most other QB's that fall into a WCO.

3700 yards 19 TD's 11 Int's in his first year in it. 50 rushes for 170 yards and 1 TD.

[cws3030]

Carr will benefit just like most other QB's that fall into a WCO.

3700 yards 19 TD's 11 Int's in his first year in it.  50 rushes for 170 yards and 1 TD.

+ add in the O-line help with FA's, rookies, and coaching
alos moulds will be a very reliable target.

3600 22TD 13 INT 35 rush 225 yds 2 tds

[Pots]

Look at 2004, he's capable. Add Moulds and some rookies and I think he builds on that season, not 2005. Plus, he has never thrown more than 15 INTs which was his rookie season.

3400/20/13 and 250 rushing yards

[Phlash]

Carr will benefit just like most other QB's that fall into a WCO.

3700 yards 19 TD's 11 Int's in his first year in it.  50 rushes for 170 yards and 1 TD.

WOW you are clearly high on Carr going into this season.

If anything, it should take him a few years to learn the system. I don't see Carr doing as well this year, possibly worse.

275/500 2750 16/12

[coolnerd]

I think that David Carr has a Jake Plummer streak within him. He will have improved stats, and at times looks like he now gets it, but at the end of the day you can't trust him when the chips are down.

3600 yards Passing, 22 tds 14 int, 225 yard rushing 3tds...A couple of tough guy late game comebacks, with 2 or 3 total late game meltdowns.

As a fantasy player a guy you wished you started last week versus getting this week' s dog performance.

[cws3030]

CMP ATT YDS TD INT
Matt Hasselbeck 294 449 3456 24 9
Drew Bledsoe 300 497 3639 23 17
Drew Brees 321 398 3570 24 15

they were top 6-10 QB's in most leagues

i have him Carr projected slightly under these guys stats and see why he can't be a top-12 QB. he will be a great late round steal in re-drafts.

yes i am drinking the carr cool-aid

[Noahs Troopers]

2800, 18 TD, 12 INT, sacked alot.

[The Ref]

Carr will benefit just like most other QB's that fall into a WCO.

3700 yards 19 TD's 11 Int's in his first year in it.  50 rushes for 170 yards and 1 TD.

+ add in the O-line help with FA's, rookies, and coaching
alos moulds will be a very reliable target.

3600 22TD 13 INT 35 rush 225 yds 2 tds

[perry147]

2800, 18 TD, 12 INT, sacked alot.

This is about right but maybe a few more passing yards maybe 3000 and a few less TD's (16) and more INT (14) but around the same range.
Carr is learning a new system which will take some time but anything is better than the chinese fire drill the offense was last season. Carr might be a good sleeper to pick in a dynasty being a QB in a WCO, but he has shown little except for one year that should warrant interest for any one else.

[by_the_sea_wanna...]

455 attempts 287 completions 3194 yards 17 TD 12 INTS

62 rushes 296 yards 1 TD

#18

[CalBear]

Carr gets a lot of crap, but like most QBs who were forced to start in a bad situation as a rookie, you've got to cut him a break. He's only 27 this year, and has not had a decent opportunity to show his talent at throwing the ball. In addition to historically awful pass-blocking by the Houston offensive line, he's been in one of the most conservative offenses of the past 20 years. In Carr's four years at QB, the highest Houston has ranked in pass attempts has been #24, in 2004 when Carr finished as the #14 fantasy QB with 3800 total yards and 19 TDs.

Houston went and got a moderately big-name free-agent WR, and Andre Johnson should be at full strength. They also went out and got an offensive-minded coach; the Broncos were not pass-happy with Kubiak at OC, but they passed a lot more than Houston did, averaging in the middle of the pack in pass attempts. Houston is very likely to throw more in 2006 than they did in 2005.

I'm going to give Carr 480 pass attempts (middle of the pack), 60% completion rate (above his career average, below his two-year average), and 6.5 yards per attempt (career average).

288/460 passes, 3000 yards passing, 23 TD, 12 INT, 300 yards rushing, 1 TD. 278 points by FBG scoring, good for approximately QB#9 overall.

Carr is likely to be available cheap, with a lot of upside; my projections, if anything, are conservative.

[Dirty Weasel]

When you look at last year's passing yards given up by defenses, guess which QB has the toughest schedule this year? It's David Carr. I'll be optimistic and give him 3200 yards, 17 TD's, 13 INT's to go along with 300 yards rushing and 2 TD's. I would only want him as my QB2 if I had a top notch starter, because I certainly wouldn't want to play matchup with this guy. Only useful as a bye week filler IMO.

[CalBear]

When you look at last year's passing yards given up by defenses, guess which QB has the toughest schedule this year?  It's David Carr.  I'll be optimistic and give him 3200 yards, 17 TD's, 13 INT's to go along with 300 yards rushing and 2 TD's.  I would only want him as my QB2 if I had a top notch starter, because I certainly wouldn't want to play matchup with this guy.  Only useful as a bye week filler IMO.

You realize that those numbers would have made him the #13 QB in 2005?

[Dirty Weasel]

Carr gets a lot of crap, but like most QBs who were forced to start in a bad situation as a rookie, you've got to cut him a break.  He's only 27 this year, and has not had a decent opportunity to show his talent at throwing the ball.  In addition to historically awful pass-blocking by the Houston offensive line, he's been in one of the most conservative offenses of the past 20 years.  In Carr's four years at QB, the highest Houston has ranked in pass attempts has been #24, in 2004 when Carr finished as the #14 fantasy QB with 3800 total yards and 19 TDs.

Houston went and got a moderately big-name free-agent WR, and Andre Johnson should be at full strength.  They also went out and got an offensive-minded coach; the Broncos were not pass-happy with Kubiak at OC, but they passed a lot more than Houston did, averaging in the middle of the pack in pass attempts.  Houston is very likely to throw more in 2006 than they did in 2005.

I'm going to give Carr 480 pass attempts (middle of the pack), 60% completion rate (above his career average, below his two-year average), and 6.5 yards per attempt (career average). 

288/460 passes, 3000 yards passing, 23 TD, 12 INT, 300 yards rushing, 1 TD.  278 points by FBG scoring, good for approximately QB#9 overall. 

Carr is likely to be available cheap, with a lot of upside; my projections, if anything, are conservative.

I think someone's had tee many martoonis. 23 TD's?? I agree very much with all your other predictions, but 23 TD's?

[sacked4loss]

300comp. 500att. 3400yards 26tds 14ints 40 sacks thats really the very high end. except for the sacks could be higher.

[CalBear]

I think someone's had tee many martoonis.  23 TD's??  I agree very much with all your other predictions, but 23 TD's?

I think Houston will throw more, and throw more in the red zone than they did under Capers, and they have better receivers. 23 passing TDs would only be around #10 in that category; I think it's consistent with an increase in passing focus and a coaching upgrade for Houston.

[Dirty Weasel]

When you look at last year's passing yards given up by defenses, guess which QB has the toughest schedule this year?  It's David Carr.  I'll be optimistic and give him 3200 yards, 17 TD's, 13 INT's to go along with 300 yards rushing and 2 TD's.  I would only want him as my QB2 if I had a top notch starter, because I certainly wouldn't want to play matchup with this guy.  Only useful as a bye week filler IMO.

You realize that those numbers would have made him the #13 QB in 2005?

Yes, but that's only because my projections are for 16 games. When I do projections, I always project for 16. The more injury-prone a player is, the more risk involved if you plan to draft them. Last year, many QB's got hurt at some point, so guys like Bulger, Warner, McNabb, etc. all move above him. Now that I look at it though, I think you are right. I gave him an average of 200 yards per game. I want to change that to 175 YPG, giving him a total of 2800. I think I'll stay with all the other numbers though.

[Dirty Weasel]

I think someone's had tee many martoonis.  23 TD's??  I agree very much with all your other predictions, but 23 TD's?

I think Houston will throw more, and throw more in the red zone than they did under Capers, and they have better receivers. 23 passing TDs would only be around #10 in that category; I think it's consistent with an increase in passing focus and a coaching upgrade for Houston.

Last year, only the Jets, Bears, and Niners had less TD passes. Now you want to move them all the way up to 10th? If so, I would love to see the list of 22 teams you think will have less than them in 2006.

[CalBear]

I think someone's had tee many martoonis.  23 TD's??  I agree very much with all your other predictions, but 23 TD's?

I think Houston will throw more, and throw more in the red zone than they did under Capers, and they have better receivers. 23 passing TDs would only be around #10 in that category; I think it's consistent with an increase in passing focus and a coaching upgrade for Houston.

Last year, only the Jets, Bears, and Niners had less TD passes. Now you want to move them all the way up to 10th? If so, I would love to see the list of 22 teams you think will have less than them in 2006.

You have to expand your view; in 2004, 15 teams had at least 23 TDs, 12 in 2003, and 15 in 2002. 23 TDs is slightly above average for a team; I think Houston can be above average.

This post has been edited by CalBear: May 9 2006, 06:00 PM

[Frills]

The last coaching staff realized they were outmatched in every facet of the game. They hammered Carr to not make any mistakes whatsoever that resulted in a turnover.

The exception is the first half of the Arizona game last year, Carr called all the plays and they scored 24 in a half. The second half Pendry took back the play calling and resulted in 3 points.

The Pendry style of zone blocking wouldn't allow cutblocks and could best be described as a neutered zone blocking scheme. Now they have a true scheme and an offensive minded coach things will change.

Predictions: 3200/27/16

He will throw more ints than ever before mainly because as a player you have to let it all hang out in order to make plays, he was never given that freedom under Capers and Co.

[guru_007]

I hate David Carr and personally think he is the worst starting QB in the NFL, and has been just about every year. He would make a good backup QB. That being said, he should put up mediocre numbers this year.

Projections:
3,400 yards
18 TD's
15 INT's
400 Rushing Yards
3 rushing TD's

Texans should be able to match their win total from last year, 2-14 again. Watch for them to come out of the gate flying at 0-5

[guru_007]

The last coaching staff realized they were outmatched in every facet of the game.  They hammered Carr to not make any mistakes whatsoever that resulted in a turnover.

The exception is the first half of the Arizona game last year, Carr called all the plays and they scored 24 in a half.  The second half Pendry took back the play calling and resulted in 3 points.

The Pendry style of zone blocking wouldn't allow cutblocks and could best be described as a neutered zone blocking scheme.  Now they have a true scheme and an offensive minded coach things will change.

Predictions:  3200/27/16

He will throw more ints than ever before mainly because as a player you have to let it all hang out in order to make plays, he was never given that freedom under Capers and Co.

Put down the crack pipe here. Tell me how the Texans are going to score 27 offensive touchdowns TOTAL, no less passing please.

[Frills]

They will be better than last year due to the D actually being able to get off the field.

There's a reason that Pendry doesn't have a job in the NFL right now.

Look at the additions made this offseason.

1. Offensive minded head coach.
2. Moulds as a #2 WR to take pressure off AJ
3. Putzier to add a threat at TE which was missing previously.
4. Flanagan at C to shore up a pourous O-line.
5. Winston and Spencer drafted in 3rd round.
6. Signed A. Smith to compliment DD.
7. Switched to 4-3.

[Buckna]

The last coaching staff realized they were outmatched in every facet of the game.  They hammered Carr to not make any mistakes whatsoever that resulted in a turnover.

The exception is the first half of the Arizona game last year, Carr called all the plays and they scored 24 in a half.  The second half Pendry took back the play calling and resulted in 3 points.

The Pendry style of zone blocking wouldn't allow cutblocks and could best be described as a neutered zone blocking scheme.  Now they have a true scheme and an offensive minded coach things will change.

Predictions:  3200/27/16

He will throw more ints than ever before mainly because as a player you have to let it all hang out in order to make plays, he was never given that freedom under Capers and Co.

Put down the crack pipe here. Tell me how the Texans are going to score 27 offensive touchdowns TOTAL, no less passing please.

They scored 26 total this past season and 37 in '04.

This post has been edited by Buckna: May 10 2006, 12:56 PM

[schooner44]

All the changes made in the off season (both FA and draft) sow signs that they new coaching staff realize that Carr can be a very effective starter if given a surrounding cast. Carr can easily get 3000-3200 yds passing and 20-23 TDs. INTs are still up for debate as he will be learning a new system. One of the biggest things to help Carr adjust to the WCO is Moulds. Moulds played in a WCO for a few seasons in Buffalo and is a very intelligent player who can help Carr understand what to look for. AJ will produce like he should have last year with a very good #2 in Moulds and the running game is very capable of keeping defenses from keying on Carr. For the first time in his career, Carr will be able to play football rather than being a puppet for an inept coaching staff.

I think Carr will finish in the 10th-12th spot at QB this year which makes him a marginal starter but in most cases, a very good #2 QB on someone's roster.

[BILLIEVE]

Just a note for rushing stats...

" Update: Part of the changes being implemented by the Texans under new head coach Gary Kubiak include having Carr roll out more often and run more in certain situations, the Houston Chronicle reports."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=roto...owire&type=lgns

[Pick]

All the pieces are there.