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Player Spotlight: Terry Glenn (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas Cowboys[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: Terry Glenn Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 
I really like the addition of Terell Owens.......more so for Terry Glenn than any other player on the Dallas Cowboys. Last year, Terry Glenn was basically uncoverable 1 on 1 vs. defenders and with Terell Owens on the field, defenses will have to attempt to do what they couldn't do last year.

Terry Glenn will average close to 20 yards per reception and have another outstanding season.

68 receptions, 1250 yards and 9 td's

 
It's unusual for a receiver to have their best season in Year 10, but Terry Glenn did just that in 2005. His YPC was a career high and, as Iwanna said, he abused defensive backs when singled up on the outside. In 2004, when Terrell Owens was happy and dominant as an Eagle, Todd "Alligator Arms" Pinkston averaged 18.8 yards per reception and he's got a fraction of the offensive skillset Glenn brings to the table.

He should post similar numbers to a year ago, as long as he's healthy, with a mild downtick in his TD production. Last year's 7 TDs were a career high and that was with Keyshawn Johnson opposite him. Owens is 4th all-time in receiving TDs and will vulture a score or two away from Glenn IMHO.

 
I've got Bledsoe throwing for over 4,000 with TO eating up about 1300 of that.

I've got Glenn down for a conservative 60 receptions, 1000 yards and 6 TDs.

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I think those numbers are in the ballpark, but they're hardly conservative. He's cracked 1,000 yards only three times in 10 years, scored 6+ TDs three times in 10 years and has done both in the same season exactly twice. To be fair, he met both of those marks last year, which is why I don't think you're out in left field. But you're also not being conservative.

 
I've got Bledsoe throwing for over 4,000 with TO eating up about 1300 of that.

I've got Glenn down for a conservative 60 receptions, 1000 yards and 6 TDs.

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I think those numbers are in the ballpark, but they're hardly conservative. He's cracked 1,000 yards only three times in 10 years, scored 6+ TDs three times in 10 years and has done both in the same season exactly twice. To be fair, he met both of those marks last year, which is why I don't think you're out in left field. But you're also not being conservative.

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Bledsoe over 4000 yards, holy smokes!
 
Hopefully, I am not called a homer.

I agree the player most positively impacted by TO is Glenn. Everything I have read about this 2 TE set makes me excited. I also have Bledsoe hitting about 4000 yards, so those yards need to go somewhere.

I'll start with.....

58 catches

1250 yards (He'll catch 2-4 really long TD's)

10 TD's.....some will think this is high. For the record my TO projections reflect this higher TD output for Glenn. He will outperform his ADP.

Glenn is extremely high on my wish list this year. Conversley, I will be avoiding J. Jones like the plague this year.

Bottom line..this will be a good passing team.

 
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58 catches

964 yards

6 TD

It appears to me he may be a little overrated in 2006. I'll be a bit surprised if he ever has another year that matches last season.

 
Everybody thinking addition of TO will automatically means Glenn would be the biggest beneficiary. A look at Parcell play calling, it is always balanced. He is not about to pass more if he does not have to. The only thing that I can add is Glenn is guaranteed a share of the pie but with big dog in the house, I doubt he'll get much more than 800 yds, 3 TD's.

 
Everybody thinking addition of TO will automatically means Glenn would be the biggest beneficiary.  A look at Parcell play calling, it is always balanced.  He is not about to pass more if he does not have to.  The only thing that I can add is Glenn is guaranteed a share of the pie but with big dog in the house, I doubt he'll get much more than 800 yds, 3 TD's.

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I'll give you an over/under of a bonus 1.5 TD's (4.5). If you want the under...I'll bet any amount of money you like on this.
 
I'm wary of the career year last year, but I'm excited about what the TO addition could do.

Still, I have to bump him down. But those projecting him at 3 TDs and 800 yards are a little low. In a good situation (like Dallas and NE), he's always produced.

940 yards, 5 TDs, 55 receptions.

 
Between Dallas focusing at least a fair amount on running and both TO and Witten being heavily involved in the passing game, I simply don't think the pie is big enough for Glenn to post numbers like he did last year.

I see him going for:

Recs: 50

Rec Yds: 800

TDs: 4

 
I don't see Glenn coming close to duplicating last year's numbers.

a) TO will demand the ball. TO double teamed is better than Glenn single covered...even if not true, TO will drill that fact into Bledoe's head.

b) More options in the receiving game--Witten not being stuck in to help out the rookie OT and Fasano on board.

c) The OL still doesn't look good, so they will have to run to keep Drew upright.

d) Glenn has missed 30% of the games the last 5 years

I have his numbers at 40-650-4

 
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Terry Glenn hasn't at any point in the past 5 seasons had both 50+ targets *AND* a 54% or better catch percentage. It just hasn't happened. So let's assume he keeps that 52% catch% that he's been averaging. To hit 60 receptions, he would need 115 targets. Does anyone really think he's getting 115 targets in an offense that also features Terrell Owens and Jason Witten? Last season, Keyshawn got 115, Glenn got 109, and Witten got 81. I see Owens with more than 115 targets, and expect Witten's numbers to go up a little bit, too, which means I really don't expect Glenn to put up 60 receptions this season.

Another point to note: Terry Glenn last season, at the age of 31, set a CAREER HIGH for yards per reception. BY A FULL YARD AND A HALF. This, to me, screams "Aberration". I've got Glenn primed to fall right back to reality. Even if he just returns to his career average... that's a decline of *3.4 yards per reception*.

Glenn's falling back to reality this season. I don't expect him to become an afterthought, but I do expect him to put up numbers more in line with his career averages. Let's say 50/750/4.

 
I've got Bledsoe throwing for over 4,000 with TO eating up about 1300 of that.

I've got Glenn down for a conservative 60 receptions, 1000 yards and 6 TDs.
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I think those numbers are in the ballpark, but they're hardly conservative. He's cracked 1,000 yards only three times in 10 years, scored 6+ TDs three times in 10 years and has done both in the same season exactly twice. To be fair, he met both of those marks last year, which is why I don't think you're out in left field. But you're also not being conservative.
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Bledsoe over 4000 yards, holy smokes!
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Not out of the question. Bledsoe hit 3,600 last year. Adding 400 yards with the addition of T.O. and a better o-line is certainly possible.McNabb had 3200 and 16 pre-T.O. and 3900 and 31 post T.O. The guy is a difference maker on the field. If the Cowboys are winning and T.O. stays happy, Bledsoe could hit 4,000 yards.

Bledsoe has crossed the 4,000 yard mark 3 times and has another season at 3,985 so he's certainly capable with the right people around him.

 
Terry Glenn hasn't at any point in the past 5 seasons had both 50+ targets *AND* a 54% or better catch percentage. It just hasn't happened. So let's assume he keeps that 52% catch% that he's been averaging. To hit 60 receptions, he would need 115 targets. Does anyone really think he's getting 115 targets in an offense that also features Terrell Owens and Jason Witten? Last season, Keyshawn got 115, Glenn got 109, and Witten got 81. I see Owens with more than 115 targets, and expect Witten's numbers to go up a little bit, too, which means I really don't expect Glenn to put up 60 receptions this season.

Another point to note: Terry Glenn last season, at the age of 31, set a CAREER HIGH for yards per reception. BY A FULL YARD AND A HALF. This, to me, screams "Aberration". I've got Glenn primed to fall right back to reality. Even if he just returns to his career average... that's a decline of *3.4 yards per reception*.

Glenn's falling back to reality this season. I don't expect him to become an afterthought, but I do expect him to put up numbers more in line with his career averages. Let's say 50/750/4.
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This is actually a pretty good argument. I like the points on Glenn losing targets which is possible.My counter though is that Glenn will have even lighter coverage than last season. He may not have the same number of targets, but I do think he will have the same number of long TD's. Glenn gets open deep and Bledsoe does a good job of finding him when he does.

I'll give Glenn 58/1000/9.

 
Glenn definitely had a great year in 2005: 62 rec 1136 yds 18.3 avg 7 TDs

I don't see these as typical TGlenn numbers.

Now adding TO to the equation does not mean Glenn will get more looks (would love to see someone do a study on how WRs perform when a new #1 WR comes to town), and hence get the ball more. Dallas will feed the ball to TO, plain and simple (causing a drop in TGlenn's receptions and yardage). I think Witten will reap the benefit of TO more than Glenn in the redzone, so his TD production will go down from last year too.

52 730 yds 5 TDs

I don't think Bledsoe breaks 3,600 yards this year, but do think TO will definitely get his share.

 
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I don't think Bledsoe breaks 3,600 yards this year
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Based on what?Edit: Every aspect of the Cowboys passing game got better in the off season. Do you think they are going to pass less this year? Do you think Bledsoe is due for an injury? 3,600 yards is insurmountable to repeat since he broke it last year?

I'd like a little bit of basis for your prediction.

 
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I don't think Bledsoe breaks 3,600 yards this year
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Based on what?Edit: Every aspect of the Cowboys passing game got better in the off season. Do you think they are going to pass less this year? Do you think Bledsoe is due for an injury? 3,600 yards is insurmountable to repeat since he broke it last year?

I'd like a little bit of basis for your prediction.
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Joe, I was figuring Bledsoe at 520 attempts (20 more than last year) and 6.9 yds/attempt - that would put him at 3,588 yds. Last year he did average 7.3, but on average he does about 6.6. Can he throw for over 4,000? Sure, he did in 1994, 1996, and 2002, and was close in 1999. I do think Drew is going to slow down some though entering his 14th season.

 
I heard a discussion on the Cowboys on tv the other day, and the popular thought process was that T.O. would be double teamed and Glenn would see single coverage the entire season.

So the question would be . . . who sees more targets: Owens double teamed or Glenn in single coverage.

 
Don't get caught assuming Glenn came out of nowhere for one last hurrah last season. He was putting up similar numbers in '04 before getting injured and was a pretty easy pick to put up good numbers last year if he stayed healthy. I see a drop of about 50 yards and 1 TD as the TO stealing targets/getting double teams effects nearly cancel each other out.

60 rec

1080 yds

6 TD

 
I don't think Bledsoe breaks 3,600 yards this year
Click to expand...
Based on what?Edit: Every aspect of the Cowboys passing game got better in the off season. Do you think they are going to pass less this year? Do you think Bledsoe is due for an injury? 3,600 yards is insurmountable to repeat since he broke it last year?

I'd like a little bit of basis for your prediction.
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Drew Bledsoe's numbers fell 80 yards per game from his first 8 games to his last 8 games. His TD:INT ratio went from 3.2:1 to 1:1.25. I'm not talking about last season... I'm talking about his first year in Buffalo. Last season, his numbers fell 50 yards per game from the first 8 games to the last 8. His TD:Int ratio went from 2.17:1 to 1:1. There is definitely a precedent to Bledsoe going to a new location, playing out of his mind, and then falling off in the last half of the season. I also think that his age and workload have to be a concern.I'm not saying that I expect the passing game to decline, I'm just giving some good reasons why it might.

 
I believe the reason for his falling off the last 8 games was due to the injury to Flozell Adams which meant leaving Campbell and Witten on the line to block more. However, I will say that he does have a penchant for starting the season on fire.

 
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