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One guy's mindset in an initial dynasty draft (1 Viewer)

Hear-the-Footsteps

Footballguy
EBF inspired me with his thread about the dynasty team he just drafted in our newly formed HyperActive league.

I decided to lay out my thought process during this recently completed draft so you can all pick on me as you see fit. I love reading in depth analysis on how others think, draft, and strategize - so I provided a full analysis here for anyone that enjoys a long read and wants to send over some feedback (positive or negative - both are welcome). If you do not enjoy long reads with tons of analysis, this is not the thread for you - let that serve as your warning :P

Prior to the draft, I created my own rankings and mocked it out many many times. RBs tend to be a team’s bread and butter in FF and this is no different in dynasty leagues (I am in a couple others). Arguably, it is even more important in dynasty b/c if you don’t have that position secure - it may be years before you do. You can’t just draft a new team the following year.

I created my rankings to fit this league’s scoring system and starting requirements (1qb, 1rb, 1wr, 1te, 1k, 1def, 3 flex (rb/wr/te))

Now, it is a ppr league, but my personal theory is that people take that too far.

(Tangent to explain what I mean: Yes, if you get a point for every reception, that makes WRs/TEs and pass catching RBs a little more valuable than they normally would be. However, I think people focus on that too much.

Consider this: the player with the 12th most receptions last year had 83 (and that is among all RBs/WRs/TEs).

The player with the 24th most had 71 receptions.

The player with the 36th most had 65.

The player with the 48th most had 57.

If you look at it, over the course of 16 regular season games - that is not that big a difference. The 24th guy had only 6 extra points on the entire year from his reception totals over the 36th guy. And the 36th guy only had 8 extra points on the entire year from his reception totals over the 48th guy. So we’re talking about .5 point extra a game. Personally, I would still rather stock up on decent starting RBs as opposed to locking in solid WRs early. Value just always seems to fall with WRs (ie, took Stallworth at 6.12 - he finished last season with 70-945-7; took McCardell at 16.05 - he finished with 70-917-9 - and is still listed as his team’s WR1. Now I know they have a new qb in SD. I know Gates is receiving option #1. But Gates went at 2.01 in this league. And Rivers has to throw some to others. So in the 16th round, even if McCardell puts up 80% of his #s from last year - I am happy. Anyway, I digress.)

Having mocked this out several times, I felt that there would still be decent starting RBs available in the 3rd round - that would not be there in the 4th. So I traded my 4th and 7th to gain a 3rd and a 12th.

Turns out I was right: 9 RBs went in the 3rd (Bell, D.Williams, K.Jones, Parker, J.Jones, Maroney, Droughns, Lewis, Deuce), while 4 went in the 4th (Benson, T.Jones, Addai, and Foster). All 4 of the 4th round RBs are in situations where the starter is still not known (ie, Chicago- will it be Benson or T.Jones; Indy- will it be Rhodes or Addai; Car- will it be Foster or D.Williams). Not to mention, 3 of these 4 RBs were gone by what would have been my pick in the 4th anyway.

So in the earlier rounds - I wanted to create a solid foundation for my team.

1.05: RB- Clinton Portis - pick really speaks for itself. Still young, proven, etc etc etc.

2.08: RB- Rudi Johnson - was pretty surprised he fell to the 20th pick. Guess everyone is scared of Perry. Rudi has been in the top 10 among RBs each of the last 2 years. He is 26 years old. I thought he’d be off the board - so I was happy. He has fewer than 1000 carries through his career.

3.03 (received from Trade 1 described above: sent 4.08, 7.05 for 3.03, 12.04)

RB- Kevin Jones - happy to have him given this spot. Last year he was going in the top half of first round dynasty leagues from his great 2004 finish. 2005 was certainly a disappointment - but that is why he fell to the 3rd. He is still young (23), has the talent, a new qb leading this young offense, a new coach, etc. I hope he could turn it around. I strongly believe that Harrington just made everyone around him worse.

3.05 (There were a few guys still on the board that I liked - so I figured I would trade down just a few spots, still grab one of them, and gain value elsewhere in the draft. Trade 2: sent 3.05, 6.08, 9.05 for 3.08, 6.06, 8.05. Basically picked up an 8th for a 9th while still being able to grab one of the guys I wanted in the 3rd.)

3.08: RB- Reuben Droughns - At the 3.05 spot, I was debating between Droughns and Maroney. My decision was made for me when Maroney went at 3.07. Droughns seems to fly under the radar a bit stemming from 2 things: 1) low td totals and 2) playing in Cleveland. But he did rush for over 1200 yards each of the last two years (w/ Denver and Cleveland). And he did have over 600 receiving yards in those two years combined. Ranked inside the top 15 among RBs each of the last 2 years. He turns 28 this August, but isn’t as old as other 28 year old RBs due to the low wear and tear (only 624 total carries in his career).

5.05: QB- Tom Brady - Was really hoping one of three QBs would fall here (though I didn’t think any of them would): Palmer, Brady, Eli. If none were available, I was fine with going for a WR. When Brady was there - grabbed him! Finished in the top 11 each of the last 4 years - most recently finishing 2nd among QBs in 2005. Turns 29 in August which isn’t old for a qb. He has played 16 games four seasons in a row.

Trade 3: sent 8.05, 10.08 for 6.12, 15.09 - I did this in order to have an extra 6th round pick to go along w/ my 6.06 so I could afford to grab Chris Perry. Figured he should go in the 7th or 8th - but since he meant more to my team (owned Rudi), I would grab him in the 6th. This plan ended up not working so well. Chris Perry was selected at 6.05 - one pick away from my 6.06 that I had from an earlier trade.

Trade 4: Now I didn’t need that extra 6th round pick afterall. So I traded the 6.06, 11.05 for 7.01, 8.12. Still held onto my 6.12, but figured trading down 1/2 round from 6.06 to 7.01 was fine if it meant moving up 2.5 rounds later (11.05 to 8.12).

6.12: WR- Donte Stallworth - Having zero WRs on my squad, I needed a guy who is young, but has already proven himself a bit. Stallworth is 25 years old and already has over 100 targets each of the last 2 years. Last year he finished with 70-945-7 making him 20th ranked. I see that getting better as he gets comfortable with their new qb, Brees - and simply as a matter of getting more experience.

7.01: WR- Mark Clayton - Again, since WRs was my weakest area, why not add a 2nd? Clayton is 23 and like Stallworth, is a 1st round NFL draft talent. Since I only have to play 1 WR given this format, and presumably that will be Stallworth, I could afford to pick Clayton and keep him on my bench until he grows into the player that many believe he should.

8.08: QB- Matt Leinart - With Brady already on board, I could afford to select a QB of the future (hopefully). Whether or not he is better than Young or Cutler is one thing (which I believe he is). But his situation is much better. Sure, Young might be the starter from day 1 - but I don’t need a starter from this selection from day 1 (again, having Brady). Once Leinart does take over (how long can that be - Warner hasn’t played a full season since 2001 and turns 35 next month), his situation is awesome. Boldin and Fitzgerald!! 2 WRs who could both easily be top 10 WRs for several years.

8.12: TE- Chris Cooley - A te that I my opinion, flew a bit under the radar. The big name TEs get all the attention (Gates, Shockey, Gonzalez, Heap, etc) - as they arguably should. But Cooley actually finished 4th among all TEs last year, had an awesome finish to 2005, ended up with over 70 receptions, and is only 23 years old. With Moss, Lloyd, and Randle El spreading the field, it could open up the short pass (at least I hope).

Trade 5: Sent 12.08, 13.05 for 10.12, 15.01

Not having a pick for a while was a bit frustrating. Granted, I didn’t have my 9th b/c I got an 8th out of the deal. And I didn’t have my 10th from the trade to gain an extra 6th. And finally, I had no 11th from the trade to get out of the extra 6th (got a 7th and 8th). So the reasons behind not having a pick in the 9th, 10th, or 11th were all legit. But still frustrating. There were a few RBs available who obviously weren’t starters (or else they wouldn’t be available), but definitely had potential. So I made the trade to get a 10th round pick.

10.12: RB- Samkon Gado - I don’t love this pick. I do think Ahman Green is past his prime. Gado is young and showed some great flashes towards the end of last year. I figured if Gado put up 4.1 ypc behind that line last year, while Green only managed 3.3 in the 5 games he was healthy - then this could be one of those late round picks that becomes huge. Who knows?

12.04: I was targeting 3 guys here: Santonio Holmes, Sinorice Moss, or Brian Calhoun (the last strictly b/c of owning Kevin Jones). Holmes went 7 picks before mine. Moss went 4 picks before mine. Before pulling the trigger on Calhoun, I figured I would see if I could get Holmes or Moss in a trade. Holmes guy wasn’t budging. But I did do…

Trade 6: sent the current 12.04 pick, 15.09 for Sinorice Moss, 16.05. So I let the guy move up from the 16th to the 15th in order to get the guy I wanted at this spot. I can afford to let this rookie develop since I only need to start 1 wr anyway - which I can do since I have 4 starting RBs. (Note: Calhoun went w/ the very next pick.)

12.04: WR- Sinorice Moss - 3rd WR off the board in the draft. As a Giants fan, I can attest to the fact that Toomer has been slowing up. Figure Moss should take over WR2 in 2007 or 2008.

14.08: QB- Jason Campbell - Already have Brady for now and the next few years. Already have Leinart for after that. However, several 1st round QBs have becomes busts. Wanted another young and talented guy who should take over sooner rather than later. Most people get so caught up in this year’s draft that they overlook last year’s. Well, if you recall, Washington traded up to get the pick in order to grab him at the end of the 1st. Anytime the coaches and management are on the same page - and both want to move up to grab a kid - that’s a good sign. They were even okay with Ramsey leaving this offseason (this shows confidence in Campbell as their future QB). I hate the Skins, but they have so many options on offense now that once Campbell gets his shot (he is currently behind Brunell who turns 36 this September) - he should be good-to-go (Santana, Lloyd, Randle El, Cooley, and Portis - not too shabby). [Other QBs still on the board were Ramsey, Boller, Grossman, McNair, Rodgers, Kitna, etc.]

15.01: TE- Leonard Pope - Some had this guy ranked as the 2nd best TE in this rookie class (some had him 3rd). Either way, V.Davis (the consensus #1) went at 6.03 in this draft - so at 15.01, I felt I could take a chance on Pope. Reports indicate he catches very well for a such a big guy (which could make him a nice endzone target). Not to mention Boldin and Fitz should often command double coverage.

15.05: RB- Jerome Harrison - Certainly a top 10 among the rookie RBs this year. Have Droughns, so figured I would grab his eventual backup.

16.05: WR- Keenan McCardell - Wanted to grab a proven vet WR. I know he is 36, but I shouldn’t need him to play more than 1-2 years (since I will have young talented guys like Mark Clayton and Sinorice Moss developing). 70-917-9 I thought was great in the 16th round. I know many think that everyone will suffer in SD by having a new QB, and there might be some truth to that - but for the most part, people are taking it too far. They can’t all drop to zero.

16.08: WR- Ernest Wilford - Added another WR since it is my weakest position. Having just nabbed a vet WR, I wanted to again go with a young talented WR. Wilford had nearly 700 yards and 7 tds last year. He ranked 34th among WRs - so as the 68th WR taken (yes, I actually counted) - I thought that was pretty solid. Jimmy Smith is getting old - and any of the other 3 (Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, and Wilford) each have the potential to jump into the WR1 spot.

17.05: QB- Mark Brunell - This was to guarantee myself a 2nd starting QB this year. In case Brady were to get hurt, or at least during Brady’s bye week, I would definitely have the Washington starter by having Brunell and Campbell. He did pretty well last year and has more receiving options this year. And if he doesn’t do well and they let Campbell take over - well, I still have the position wrapped up anyway.

18.08: DEF- Indianapolis Colts - Sure their offense gets all the attention, but their D was pretty solid last year (no seriously, check it out). Believe it was a top 5 fantasy D.

19.05: RB- Ricky Williams - Figured I could go for an absolute long shot here in the 19th that he may play again. I felt comfortable at every position. He turns 29 later this month - but missed all of 2004 and only had 168 carries in 2005. Considering he has finished in the top 10 3 times - there is no questioning his skills (just his drug problem). He may not come back next year. But if he does, some team might trade for him (probably wouldn’t have to give up much or pay him that much) and rather make him their starter over a rookie or while a rookie develops. Who knows? Yeah, it’s a long shot - but over 200 picks in - it was worth the risk

20.08: RB- Quentin Griffin - Another long shot. KC’s offensive line is just so good. Last year everyone was grabbing LJ b/c of Priest’s injury history. Now I am aware that LJ doesn’t have an injury history problem, but he still may get injured. (No, I am not rooting for an injury to him - I just want his backup if he does go down.) I am not sold on Dee Brown as the back up.

21.05: DEF- Buffalo Bills - Not much exciting to say, other than I wanted a 2nd defense and they were about to fly off the board. Since I didn’t want to be stuck with a bottom 10 defense, I grabbed the Bills.

22.08: RB- Priest Holmes - The way I see it is IF Holmes does come back, then he will be LJ’s backup. And IF LJ gets hurt, then Priest would be the first guy to get all the carries. If he doesn’t come back, then see Griffin above.

23.05: K- Jeff Reed - 27 years old, ranked 3rd among Ks each of the last two years.

24.08: WR- Greg Lewis - McNabb is just too talented to put up nothing even with a weak WR group. Stud QBs make something happen - so someone has to put up some WR #s. Reggie Brown went in the 6th. Greg Lewis is projected to be the #2 WR behind him and would anyone really be that surprised if Lewis did better than Brown, Avant, or Pinkston?! Didn’t think so. Lewis is 26 years old and if somehow, someway, he becomes McNabb’s go-to guy - that would be beyond sweet in the 24th.

25.05: TE- Courtney Anderson - 25 years old - Nothing exciting to say other than I got my 3rd TE, who ranked 21st among TEs last year - in the 25th round. And even that isn’t too exciting.

26.08: WR- Maurice Stovall - Rookie WR who I think (hope) could become a starter within 2 years since Galloway is getting up their in age.

Where I just missed on guys:

Perry - missed him by 1 spot.

Brian Calhoun - Was thinking of taking him, but traded pick for Sinorice Moss. Calhoun went on the very next pick.

Warner - not getting him to pair him with Leinart. Not that frustrated though b/c the guy that took him, did so a little early in my opinion (especially considering he didn’t have Leinart).

Team (starters in bold):

QBs: Brady, Leinart, Campbell, Brunell

RBs: Portis, R.Johnson, K.Jones, Droughns, Gado, Harrison, R.Williams, Griffin, Holmes

WRs: Stallworth, MarkClayton, SinoriceMoss, McCardell, Wilford, G.Lewis, Stovall

TEs: Cooley, Pope, Anderson

Ks: Reed

Defs: Indy, Buffalo

Feel free to lay into me!!

Edit to add: I think this team can compete now and is still set up for the future. I went for balance. Didn't want to put all my eggs in one basket and have to win it this year. Likewise, I didn't want to sell out and not even compete in the first year of the league. Who likes sitting around anyway? So I think I struck a good balance between being competitive now and hopefully for years to come!!

 
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Without reading the whole thing, the only WR I like is Clayton.

RBs are great, so you'll probably be alright.

 
Without reading the whole thing, the only WR I like is Clayton.

RBs are great, so you'll probably be alright.

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Trust me, I know WR is my weakest area. But I think for where I got guys - I did well.Sinorice Moss in the 8th would be too early. But Sinorice in the 12th should be good. Likewise on McCardell. Getting him in the 16th should be solid.

Nonetheless, it is still my weakest area - but that is b/c I have (at least in my opinion) 4 RBs that I would put up against any other team's best 4 RBs. And I should have the QB position locked up for a while as well.

Edit to add: Given this format, we can start 4 RBs. But you can't start 4 RBs if you don't have 4 you like.

 
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I really don't like what you did given it's a PPR league. What's the PPR? .5? 1?)

Just basing on what and how you did draft, not getting Perry & Calhoun hurts my opinion on your team quite a bit. Both could end up being ideal for PPR purposes.

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PPR leagues I tend to do almost opposite of what you did. I probably would of went Portis and Brady when you did, but rather built a solid core of WR's and gotten Gates if possible. (vs. Rudi, Droughns)

RB situations get a lot more cluttered & change year-2-year than WR situations. You can draft a rookie RB the following year and expect an earlier return. And then you still have your solid WR core intact.......vs. having mediocre WR's there and still having your RB's that may not even be starting anymore.

:2cents:

 
I don't think your WR are as weak as you think. Playing the matchups, they look halfway decent.

Overall a pretty good draft.....oh and for someone who hates the Skins you sure did end up with alot of them....lol

 
I really don't like what you did given it's a PPR league. What's the PPR? .5? 1?)

Just basing on what and how you did draft, not getting Perry & Calhoun hurts my opinion on your team quite a bit. Both could end up being ideal for PPR purposes. 

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PPR leagues I tend to do almost opposite of what you did. I probably would of went Portis and Brady when you did, but rather built a solid core of WR's and gotten Gates if possible. (vs. Rudi, Droughns)

RB situations get a lot more cluttered & change year-2-year than WR situations. You can draft a rookie RB the following year and expect an earlier return. And then you still have your solid WR core intact.......vs. having mediocre WR's there and still having your RB's that may not even be starting anymore.

:2cents:

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
In order to draft one of the better RBs in the rookie draft - you need a high draft pick - which means you had to have done poorly the year before. It isn't as easy to just grab a good rookie RB as you indicated.Again, I know that a lot of people take the ppr scoring very seriously. And it definitely deserves attention. But keep in mind what I said if you don't get a top 12 WR. Last year the guy with the 12th most receptions only got 12 extra points from those receptions as opposed to the guy with the 24th most. That's not even an extra point per game. Personally, I'd rather a good starting RB rather than making sure to grab a top 12 WR in the 2nd or 3rd.

 
Where are all the dynasty guys?!

Calling Bloom, Pasquino, Wannabee, Tick, Couch Potato, OZ,...

You are wanted in this thread.

Rip into me. Tell me what you think. The good, the bad, and the ugly of this analysis!!

 
an upside to your strategy is that next years draft should have quite a few "can't miss" WRs that will be entering into the draft

just how many and how hyped up is what we will wait for

 
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What type of league only requires you to play 1 WR per week?

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It was designed so that any of several different strategies could be used at the outset.Some think having solid RBs is not important, since you only have to start 1.

Others think having solids RBs is extremely important, b/c if you can play up to 4 of them - why wouldn't you want to do that?

It is definitely interesting as so many different approaches were taken.

I have never been in a league before where you only have to start 1 WR, but I do always love changing things up from the norm - so I am looking forward to it.

 
What type of league only requires you to play 1 WR per week?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
you cna play 3 rb's and 2 te's to go along with the 1 wr if you so choose. or you can play 2 rb's and 3 te's, or 1 rb and 4 te's or hell, you get the idea
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I understand the format. It's just that in my experience when there is a WR/RB/TE position it ends up being a RB. So I bet most people in the league will field 3-4RBs, making RB depth extremely important.
 
What type of league only requires you to play 1 WR per week?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
you cna play 3 rb's and 2 te's to go along with the 1 wr if you so choose. or you can play 2 rb's and 3 te's, or 1 rb and 4 te's or hell, you get the idea
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I understand the format. It's just that in my experience when there is a WR/RB/TE position it ends up being a RB. So I bet most people in the league will field 3-4RBs, making RB depth extremely important.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Gettting a much more solid wide receiving and tight end core in a 1 ppr dynasty league was severely underrated by a lot of teams in this league imo when you only have to start 1 RB.
 
What type of league only requires you to play 1 WR per week?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
you cna play 3 rb's and 2 te's to go along with the 1 wr if you so choose. or you can play 2 rb's and 3 te's, or 1 rb and 4 te's or hell, you get the idea
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I understand the format. It's just that in my experience when there is a WR/RB/TE position it ends up being a RB. So I bet most people in the league will field 3-4RBs, making RB depth extremely important.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
That's exactly what I was going for - 4 solid starting RBs. But not every team can get 4 starting RBs. 12 teams x 4 = 48. And obviously there aren't 48 starting RBs.At most there can be 32. But given certain situations (ie, Indy: Rhodes or Addai; Chicago: Benson or Jones; SF: Gore or Barlow or what?!), there are actually considerably fewer than 32.

But because I agree with getting as many of the decent ones as you can - I traded up from my 4th round pick to gain an extra pick in the 3rd.

1) Portis (finished 6th last year)

2) Rudi (finished 7th last year)

3) K.Jones (finished 31st last year)

4) Droughns (finished 14th last year)

My concern is whether K.Jones' talent will come through this year. I am confident he could do it. But there is a difference between being able to put up #s and actually putting those #s up.

Droughns - everybody thinks he did well in 2004 because he was running in Denver. Well, that is and is not the case.

His TDs were higher in 04, but his receiving yardage was better in Cleveland (yes, it actually better outside Denver's system).

2004: 275-1240-6 32-241-2 Total of 1481 yards and 8 tds.

2005: 309-1232-2 39-369-0 Total of 1601 yards and 2 tds.

My hope (obviously) is that his TDs increase. Last year it was hard given most teams were stuffing the box against the run. This year they will have Edwards and Winslow there preventing 8 or 9 in the box. Hopefully, that will open things up for Droughns.

Anyway, I could be looking at 4 top 20 RBs. (Fingers crossed!!)

 
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What type of league only requires you to play 1 WR per week?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
you cna play 3 rb's and 2 te's to go along with the 1 wr if you so choose. or you can play 2 rb's and 3 te's, or 1 rb and 4 te's or hell, you get the idea
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I understand the format. It's just that in my experience when there is a WR/RB/TE position it ends up being a RB. So I bet most people in the league will field 3-4RBs, making RB depth extremely important.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I'd much rather be starting the 30th WR than the 30th RB in a 1 ppr league.
 
Would have stuck with the 3.5 and picked Maroney, I just do not see the upside with Droughns. Liked the Leinart pick, if he performs as expected you will have two QB's that could net you a decent player should you decide to trade one. Cross your fingers with WR core, but then again, you only have to start one. Your RB's will get you points, but I'm a big fan of going very young at this position after I draft a proven stud in round 1.

 
Not bad. I think you'll be pretty competitive from the get-go.

My primary concern would be long-term depth. There's a pretty good chance that at least one or two of your RBs will disappoint relatively quickly. I'd put my money on Droughns. I think he's a stop-gap solution, meaning I'll be surprised if he starts for more than a year or two. You did draft Harrison as his backup, but the eventual starter in Cleveland could be Green, Suggs, Harrison, or a 2007 rookie.

I think KJ and Rudi should be pretty solid for you. Neither catches many passes, but they're both good backs.

WR would definitely be an area of concern. Stallworth is one of those fringe guys who may or may not ever put it all together. He's not a bad depth guy, but I wouldn't want him as my #1. Clayton should develop into a solid WR. I was going to consider him at 7.03 if he lasted. Beyond that, I don't see much to like. I think Moss is a little overrated and I'm not sure if Wilford will ever do much.

I agree with radballs that a lot of people neglected the WR and TE positions. The obession with RBs just isn't necessary in a league such as ours. They get hurt and replaced a lot. I'd rather have Roy Williams, Hines Ward, and Larry Fitzgerald than LaMont Jordan, Jamal Lewis, and Reuben Droughns. Teams that banked on RBs might do better in the short term, but I think the teams that built around QBs and pass catchers will have more sustained success.

 

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