[DYNASTY] Another guy's mindset in a initial draft (1 Viewer)

This is EBFs quote. Im in the same league

I'm just finishing up a 26 round dynasty draft for a 12 team ppr league that starts 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLX, 1 PK, and 1 D/ST. I've been drafting extremely young and have taken a lot of flak for it. I figured it might be worthwhile to explain my philosophy

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me too …HTF's thread

EBF's thread

[SIZE=21pt]Part I[/SIZE]

First, here is my philosophy for new dynasty leagues: Win Now

Pretty simple. My theory is based on the fact that most dynasty leagues don’t stay afloat more than 2-3 years. For whatever reason, people dropout, get angry at other owners, and then the league folds. I don’t want to spend 2 season worth of fees to develop a team and then have all that hard work blown out the door.

Now, that doesn’t mean I draft every aging vet out there. How I approach this is drafting players that are in their prime and currently producing. I weigh a little on age, but mostly on production. Once I have an assemblence of a starting lineup with maybe 1 or 2 extra players, I start making “youthful reaches”. None of this is in stone, it is certainly a guideline. But one I try to stick to because I want to put up points every week and have an above average chance to win the first 2 seasons while also looking to develop talent down the road. I dont want to develop any talent or just any young guy in the NFL. I will target players I think can be studs in the NFL.

The HyperActive League has different lineup requirements that I have ever played with before. I have used 1-1-2-1-1-1 with 2 FLEX, but never 1-1-1-1-1-1 with 3 FLEX. I am a very RB heavy drafter. Sometimes I will draft 4 RBs with my first 4 picks. I want as many as I can have. One reason I do this is because I am a very active trader. Having more RBs is a good thing because injuries ALWAYS happen. Having extra means you can trade for futures or make a package deal to upgrade to a stud QB/WR/TE. With my RB heavy nature, and the option to start 4RBs, such a deep draft (26 rounds) I wanted to take 4 RBs with my first 4 picks.

I got lucky and received the first pick. Im a LT2 guy, but given the option I want more picks over the first pick. After receiving the first pick, I wanted to secure 4 picks in the top 40. I went back and forth with a lot of owners hoping to find a deal that worked for both sides. I found a trade partner in Family Matters.

JAA gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 1.01Year 2005 Draft Pick 4.12Year 2005 Draft Pick 6.12Year 2005 Draft Pick 11.01Year 2005 Draft Pick 12.12Family Matters gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 1.06Year 2005 Draft Pick 2.10Year 2005 Draft Pick 6.04Year 2005 Draft Pick 8.04Year 2005 Draft Pick 9.09This trade gave me the 6, 22, 24, 25 and then no pick until 49. Four picks in the top 30 and I was very happy.

1.01 1 Louisville Llamas No Pick Made Sun May 7 4:05:23 p.m. ET 2006 Pick Skipped By Commissioner

1.02 2 Bucketheads  Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB Tue Apr 25 4:16:21 p.m. ET 2006

1.03 3 EastBayFunk Bush, Steve SFO RB Tue Apr 25 6:57:49 p.m. ET 2006 Pick is RB Reggie Bush. 

1.04 4 SofaKings Alexander, Shaun SEA RB Sat Apr 29 9:01:03 p.m. ET 2006

1.05 5 HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps)  Portis, Clinton WAS RB Sun Apr 30 1:32:44 a.m. ET 2006

1.06 6 The Brown Dog (JAA) Williams, Carnell TBB RB Sun Apr 30 1:32:44 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

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I wont lie. I would not trade up (not even 1 spot), but I really wanted Portis to fall. When I look back, there was a possibility to trade up and I can easily say I should have taken it. However, I didn’t want to touch any of my other 3 top 30 picks. I had 2 entries in my pre-draft, Portis and then Caddie. Im not going to argue my subjective opinions on why I chose Caddie over ABC player, I will say that drafting any RB in the first round really is a crap shoot. My feeling is you make your own listings and take the guy you want. You can debate all you want about some RB has so much better of a chance than another, but the truth of the matter is you are simply guessing. Caddie was the one I wanted and I took him. One reason I targeted Caddie was because TB did not draft a RB in the draft. I wanted to wait until the draft was over to make sure of this. Tampa not taking a RB reassured me that they have no concerns going into the season with Caddie #1 and Pittman #2.Im not a rookie guy. I put very little weight on someone who hasn’t played 1 down in the NFL. Im in about 7 dynasty leagues and if I ever sniff the top 3 picks they are usually traded. I would rather receive a proven player not matter how “sure thing” a prospect may be. As you can see from this draft, there are a lot who disagree with me.

1.07 7 Pimpin Ain't Easy Brown, Ronnie MIA RB Sun Apr 30 3:27:22 a.m. ET 2006

1.08 8 radballs Jackson, Steven STL RB Sun Apr 30 3:30:26 a.m. ET 2006

1.09 9 EastBayFunk Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR Sun Apr 30 3:30:26 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

1.10 10 Louisville Llamas Manning, Peyton IND QB Sun Apr 30 8:51:59 a.m. ET 2006

1.11 11 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Johnson, Chad CIN WR Sun Apr 30 9:31:08 a.m. ET 2006

1.12 12 Patoons Westbrook, Brian PHI RB Sun Apr 30 9:58:33 a.m. ET 2006

2.01 13 radballs Gates, Antonio SDC TE Sun Apr 30 1:33:30 p.m. ET 2006

2.02 14 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Smith, Steve CAR WR Sun Apr 30 1:33:30 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

2.03 15 Louisville Llamas James, Edgerrin ARI RB Sun Apr 30 1:33:30 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

2.04 16 Seattle Stars Jordan, Lamont OAK RB Sun Apr 30 2:12:16 p.m. ET 2006 Can't ignore 70 receptions last season.

2.05 17 Patoons Holt, Torry STL WR Sun Apr 30 2:12:16 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

2.06 18 Pimpin Ain't Easy McGahee, Willis BUF RB Sun Apr 30 2:25:53 p.m. ET 2006

2.07 19 Seattle Stars Boldin, Anquan ARI WR Sun Apr 30 2:36:03 p.m. ET 2006

2.08 20 HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps)  Johnson, Rudi CIN RB Sun Apr 30 3:25:22 p.m. ET 2006

2.09 21 SofaKings Barber, Tiki NYG RB Sun Apr 30 4:20:40 p.m. ET 2006 I will be going through the alphabet with my picks.

2.10 22 The Brown Dog (JAA) Moss, Randy OAK WR Sun Apr 30 4:20:40 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

2.11 23 Bucketheads  Davis, Domanick HOU RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006

2.12 24 The Brown Dog (JAA) Taylor, Chester MIN RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

3.01 25 The Brown Dog (JAA) Bell, Tatum DEN RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

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I didn’t think Moss would be there. I wanted 4 RBs and then start worrying about other positions. However, I think Moss is too good of a player to pass up here. While is certainly isn’t going to put up the killer numbers he did when he was younger, he is a weapon and can take over games. He is not usually a player than disappears but one that can be depended upon each week. I took him first because I 3 other RBs I had weighted about equal, so it didn’t matter to me which one I got with the next 2 picks. The first was DD. I would have loved for DD to slip to me. Heck, Moss could have fallen but in the end I had all these backs around the same. DD is more proven than Taylor and Bell, but I wanted Moss more. A lot of folks wont like the Taylor and Bell picks. I am ok with that. To be honest, I don’t know for sure if they will be studs, or even RB1s. What I do know is that I have 3 RBs that all should be RB1’s on their teams with the potential to put up big numbers. All are young which is a plus, also they all look to catch the ball. Taylor will be playing in a WCO "Westbrook" offense. Bell could be the starter in Denver. I did pass on a number of more “proven” players here. I did consider Parker, Droughns, Foster, and even Thomas Jones. In the end, these were the guys I think had the best chance to excel as starters on their respective teams. Each of them could end up busts. I am putting up my $$ that not all of them will bust at the same time. I think I will be fine if 1 busts, 1 is average, and 1 above average of my first 3 RBs. This is the position I wanted to put myself in. Add Moss in there for the first 4 picks and I think I have the beginning of an excellent starting lineup.Let me also say I figured Gates would have fallen to 22. I would have snatched him up in a second. I figured it was a done deal. As it turns out, Gates was taken much higher. I would have loved to have gotten him at this spot, but if him and Moss would have fallen I think I would have been worse off than originally predicted. As it turns out, I am very happy the way my first 7 picks went. I didnt think Jordan would fall, but I also would have love to seen him here.

I am not going to post the entire draft

4.08 44 Family Matters Foster, De'shaun CAR RB Mon May 1 12:26:18 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

4.09 45 SofaKings Johnson, Andre HOU WR Mon May 1 1:37:58 p.m. ET 2006

4.10 46 radballs Palmer, Carson CIN QB Mon May 1 1:44:03 p.m. ET 2006 Guy will be great for years even if he misses part of the beginning of the 2006 season.

4.11 47 Bucketheads  Burress, Plaxico NYG WR Mon May 1 1:56:01 p.m. ET 2006

4.12 48 Family Matters Moss, Santana WAS WR Mon May 1 2:17:35 p.m. ET 2006

5.01 49 The Brown Dog (JAA) Walker, Javon GBP WR Mon May 1 2:56:07 p.m. ET 2006 Wow. Cant believe Walker fell this far. You guys know this isnt a redraft league right?

5.02 50 Bucketheads  Manning, Eli NYG QB Mon May 1 2:57:26 p.m. ET 2006

5.03 51 EastBayFunk Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB Mon May 1 3:01:37 p.m. ET 2006 Top 15 player on my board. 

5.04 52 SofaKings Edwards, Braylon CLE WR Mon May 1 3:31:41 p.m. ET 2006

5.05 53 HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps)  Brady, Tom NEP QB Mon May 1 3:36:05 p.m. ET 2006

5.06 54 Seattle Stars McNabb, Donovan PHI QB Mon May 1 3:57:18 p.

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The Walker to Denver trade had already happened. I could not believe he was still on the board. Young, talented and sought after by Denver. He is not someone I am going to expect to perform this year, unlike my normal motto, but him at 49 is too much to pass up. I figure that I can pickup another starter by pick 66 and somewhat stash Walker for later.I noticed Branch was there at 64. HTF and I had been talking about a trade. I had Branch as the lest solid tier 1 player on the board. I also wanted to secure a solid QB. I had hoped McNabb would have fallen and also though Eli would have fallen. However, when I saw that both Eli and McNabb had been taken, and both CulPep and Bulger were on the board, I figured I could trade up for Branch and figured one of the QBs made it to me at 66. HTF and I agree on a trade:

Trade The Brown Dog (JAA) gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 7.01Year 2005 Draft Pick 8.12HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps) gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 6.06Year 2005 Draft Pick 11.05I figured if I could get both Branch and one of those QBs, my starting lineup was done.

6.01 61 EastBayFunk White, Manuel WAS RB Mon May 1 7:44:35 p.m. ET 2006 Pick is RB LenDale White aka "The Round Mound of First Down"

6.02 62 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Dayne, Ron DEN RB Mon May 1 7:44:35 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

6.03 63 Louisville Llamas Cushing, Matt FA TE Mon May 1 7:47:16 p.m. ET 2006 I am selecting Vernon Davis as a TE with this pick. Replacement pick made by Commissioner

6.04 64 The Brown Dog (JAA) Branch, Deion NEP WR Mon May 1 8:44:22 p.m. ET 2006 http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...dpost&p=3454415

6.05 65 radballs Perry, Chris CIN RB Mon May 1 9:02:47 p.m. ET 2006 Gets tons of catches. If he gets more of the work, he could be good value here.

6.06 66 The Brown Dog (JAA) Culpepper, Daunte MIA QB Mon May 1 9:52:50 p.m. ET 2006

6.07 67 Family Matters Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE Mon May 1 9:55:34 p.m. ET 2006 Well talk about value. Tony G at 6.7 is as good as it gets. Thanks!

6.08 68 Pimpin Ain't Easy Heap, Todd BAL TE Mon May 1 10:11:37 p.m. ET 2006

6.09 69 SofaKings Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB Mon May 1 10:19:44 p.m. ET 2006

6.10 70 Pimpin Ain't Easy Bulger, Marc STL QB Mon May 1 10:26:35 p.m. ET 2006 Replacement pick made by Commissioner

6.11 71 Bucketheads  Brown, Reggie PHI WR Mon May 1 10:27:30 p.m. ET 2006

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I decided to take Culpepper because I like his upside over the next 3 years more than Bulger. I am a huge Bulger fan but I don’t know how he will do w/o Bruce. I do know that Culpep will have Chambers who IMHO is a complete stud.Again, here I strayed from my “points now” and took players who I think are complete steals at this position. Honestly, at this point I knew people in the draft valued players a lot differently than I do. This can be a good thing, it can also be a bad thing. The most important thing is to realize it and make adjustments to your drafting strategy. My adjustments were that I would be taking players ahead of where they could go, but I would get all the players I wanted it. This means that I most likely could have gotten more value for a pick, but I might not have been able to get my guy. I decided I wanted my guys. This would also mean I would let the draft come to me and less trading up to get people because most likely they would fall as long as I had a couple guys I valued the same at that spot. Make an adjustment and run with it. Maybe it wont work, maybe it will. Just try and get as much value for you pick as you think you can.

I don’t have another pick until 88. That’s a long time. Though I didn’t have any other Tier 1 QBs, RBs, WRs, or even TEs on the board, I still needed a TE, another RB or 2, and maybe another WR. Depending on how things were going, I might not take any other WRs except prospects. At this point in the draft I have 6 starters when I only need 5 (minus TE). Meaning, I could play 3 RBs and 2 WRs, 1 RB and 3 WRs, etc. I can field a solid lineup each week. I don’t have a need to go after what I consider tier 2 WRs like Housch, Coles, Porter, etc. While they will put points on the board, they probably wont make it into my starting lineup w/o an injury. At this point I have 1 extra starter. This would be were I would head to BPA as much as possible since I already had a starting lineup.

I did notice a lot of solid TEs were going off the board that I would have liked to see fall. Players like Witten, Alge, McMike, LJ, etc. With them gone at 88 there were two players I really wanted. Both players were value for BPA’s. I have Brown as a RB2 in my rankings. I understand the Lendale argument, but I somewhat dismissed it because of him being drafted so low. If he was good enough to take the starting role from Brown day 1, he would have been drafted much sooner. I think he was taken because Henry might be on his way out with the drug problems. Im not here to debate this, its just my thoughts. Brooks is a steal here. I think Brooks could be a top 5 QB next season. He is going to a team with Moss, Porter, Jordan and even Gabriel. The team wants a high powered offense and Brooks was brought in to lead it. From a Fantasy perspective, Brooks has really not been worse than 15 except last season. Having CulPep as a #1 means I need someone who can play this season if need be. Brooks even has the potential to be a QB1 this season. I decided to take Brown and try to trade up. I don’t remember if I traded first or picked Brown first. I do know I worked very hard to get the pick

The Brown Dog (JAA) gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 9.01Year 2005 Draft Pick 11.05Year 2005 Draft Pick 19.01Family Matters gave up:Year 2005 Draft Pick 8.05Year 2005 Draft Pick 16.04Year 2005 Draft Pick 18.04

7.11 83 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Brees, Drew NOS QB Tue May 2 8:35:43 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

7.12 84 Patoons Barber, Marion DAL RB Tue May 2 8:40:02 a.m. ET 2006

8.01 85 Patoons Gore, Frank SFO RB Tue May 2 8:40:02 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

8.02 86 Coolest Nerds on the Planet McMichael, Randy MIA TE Tue May 2 8:40:02 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

8.03 87 Louisville Llamas Smith, L.J. PHI TE Tue May 2 8:50:53 a.m. ET 2006

8.04 88 The Brown Dog (JAA) Brown, Chris TEN RB Tue May 2 8:58:12 a.m. ET 2006 The #1 RB in Ten is available? Not anymore ...

8.05 89 The Brown Dog (JAA) Brooks, Aaron OAK QB Tue May 2 9:58:44 a.m. ET 2006 Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank -------------------------------------------------- 2000 0 29 336 2001 59 6 21 2002 44 6 36 2003 26 5 44 2004 32 8 46 2005 0 16 130 -------------------------------------------------- And now throwing to Moss, Porter, and Gabriel? Who is going to toss those 70 receptions to Jordan again?

8.06 90 radballs Green, Ahman GBP RB Tue May 2 10:53:04 a.m. ET 2006

8.07 91 Seattle Stars Taylor, Fred JAC RB Tue May 2 11:52:02 a.m. ET 2006

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At this point in the draft I am feeling very cocky. I have gotten just about every player I want. I cant find a hole in my lineup outside of the TE position which I can easily go TEBC. There was still plenty of talent on the board. My next pick was 105 and there was 1 TE on the board who I would love to have. I don’t know how everyone else had him rated, but I cant believe he is still there. This player was drafted in the top 1st round to be a stud TE. He has all the talent in the world and only if he can screw his head on right.

9.07 103 radballs Rhodes, Dominic IND RB Tue May 2 10:43:04 p.m. ET 2006 For when Addai can't seem to pick up the complicated nuances of opponent defensive blitzing and Manning pass protection. Other reasons too I'm sure but this could be a wasted pick. I personally won a league back in the day when he filled in for James.

9.08 104 Patoons Williamson, Troy MIN WR Tue May 2 11:40:21 p.m. ET 2006

9.09 105 The Brown Dog (JAA) Winslow, Kellen CLE TE Tue May 2 11:43:24 p.m. ET 2006 how many knee injuries can one team have?

9.10 106 Louisville Llamas Carr, David HOU QB Tue May 2 11:43:24 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

9.11 107 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Simms, Chris TBB QB Wed May 3 12:09:20 a.m. ET 2006

9.12 108 Pimpin Ain't Easy Horn, Joe NOS WR Wed May 3 12:15:45 a.m. ET 2006

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Taking KWII means I need another TE. I decided I wasn’t going to trade up for one, but I would have to settle for a tier 3 TE though. I don’t have another pick until 140 … 35 picks. That’s a long time, but at this point I consider my draft done. I have filled every possible hole I could think of in my starting lineup with depth, skill and value. Here is my team:QB: Culpepper / Brooks

RB: Caddie / Taylor / Bell / Brown

WR: Moss / Walker / Branch

TE: KWII

This team is built to win the league this year, next year and the year after. I have wiggle room for trading, injuries, bye-weeks (hopefully ), and even starting lineup requirements. I am very happy. Onto the second half of the draft.

[SIZE=21pt]Part II[/SIZE]

Now that I have my team, I want to pick players that have tremendous upside. I don’t want bye week fillers, backups, or rookies per se. I want players who I think can become the go to guy on their team. I also want to start considering taking the best PKs and DSTs that I like. One can easily argue to wait. However, I decided that I would take 2 of each and have the guys I wanted instead of letting them come to me.

I drafted 2 QBs, 4 RBs and 3 WRs so that I would not necessarily need to waste picks on backups. I know the theory about handcuffing and the upside if an injury happens. However, Im just no good at doing it. I used to steal handcuffs (Davenport, Mo Morris, Turner, etc), but it ended up simply not working out. Since that time I try and take enough RBs so that if an injury happens, I have another RB1 or RB2 to plug in the lineup. Also, with these starting lineup requirements I have a lot of wiggle room flexing around. Now, I will take backups, just not high at all. They will usually be taken before me. At that time I will be taking players that I think could be #1’s in the next 5 years.

12.08 140 The Brown Dog (JAA) Henry, Chris CIN WR Wed May 3 8:13:26 p.m. ET 2006Yes, I am a WVU homer. However, if you have watched Henry play at Cinci (off the field issues aside) he is a beast. Something like 6.5 with 4.4 time. He can jump and uses his body like Moss. Henry has the potential to be a #1 WR in the league.
First PK off the board. I wanted the first one on my list even if the difference between him and the next kicker is 2 points. One positive regarding starting runs is that when other people are finally picking up their kickers, you can be picking backups to some of your players.
Colbert has the potential to be a #1 in the NFL. In his rookie season he went for 750/5. That’s pretty good for any rookie who was forced to be a #2 due to injury. This will be his 3rd season and I have time to watch him grow.
Jackson is a prospect. He could be moved to TE, but he has the speed to beat corners in the NFL. He is something like 6’5 and not close to a stick figure. Im not sure if he will make it to #1, but on the chargers there is only Parker who will always be a solid #2 and Caldwell who cant seem to stay healthy. McCardell is not getting any younger. When Keenan is close to retirement I will know more.
This is a reach, but I like the way Suggs plays. I think Suggs could be traded, specifically traded to the Eagles. If he is traded I think he could work his way to a RBBC.
in the 16th round I take the backup to my 1.06 pick.
I needed at least another TE incase Winslow cant play. Wiggins is not a stud by any means but he has very soft hands and is playing in Childress WCO which should give him ample opportunity to catch balls.
I wanted a stud DST. At this point I not using any lists to fill holes. I am simply filling my roster with BPA when it is my pick. Now, BPA according to who I think will perform.
I liked watching Croyle play. I think he is good enough to be a starter in the NFL. I was surprised to see this such under the radar considering Trent Green isn’t getting any younger. Croyle is definitely a prospect, but he has great measurables and was drafted by a high octane offense.

I wanted to defenses. This was a choice between Philly and Atl. I chose Atl because of how agreesive their corners are. I love D Williams and they drafted another VT corner this year .
I am guessing he will be the backup to CulPep when it is all said and done.
Prospect only. However, he has all the tools to be a stud in the NFL. This is not like taking a Kitna, Ramsey, or Cambell. If this guy makes it into the starting lineup, it will be because he is going to be a star.
Was highly touted coming out of school. I like him a lot as a Gonzo replacement whenever that may be.
KOY? :lamo:
Im surprised no one took Daniels. Taylor is gone and Musa cant stay healthy. Look at his measurables: 5’10 / 210. This could be a replacement for Lewis. Daniels was taken in the 4th round so he certainly was closer to the top of the Ravens board than to the bottom.Rate my Team

Positives:

Two veteran stud QBs (from a fantasy perspective). Brooks should finish in the top 15 and has the potential to finish in the top 10 or even 5. If healthy, Culpeper should be a top 5 QB.

Quantity at RB where see 4 NFL RB1’s. Lots of depth and potential for flexing due to injuries.

1 stud WR, 1 potential stud WR, and 1 tier 2 WR. A lot of folks last season had Branch as a top 10 WR. He is my WR2 or 3.

Highly rated prospect TE. TE depth and TE prospect.

Solid PKs and DSTs

Lots of prospect QBs and WRs. Should have plenty of depth at the skill positions to cover injuries and let the projects prosper overtime.

Negatives:

QB depth. Really only have 2 QBs. I am taking a chance with injuries in the QB department. If something happened to Brooks and CulPepper wanst playing where I was unable to acquire Brooks backup, I could be ups creek.

Unproven RBs. As much as I feel my RBs are studs, they aren’t truly proven. I didn’t put all my eggs in one basket and gave myself more chances to succeed. However, its possible none of them pan out. I don’t consider that likely, but I cant say one of them is “proven”.

No true WR depth. If Walker doesn’t get healthy and Moss gets injured, I could have a real problem having to depend on Henry. However, I think that is somewhat of a long shot. But when I use my “no wanna-be” NFL WR2’s this is the side effect.

No tier 1 TE aside from an unproven Winslow. As much of a “cant miss” prospect KWII is, I cant say he is proven. After him Wiggins is middle of the road and I have nobody after him.

No true prospect RBs. As much as I would have liked to draft some rookie RBs, how high they went in the draft is was not even close to an option for me. I will need to either pickup some or get some picks next season.

Not enough time to read that post but I do agree with a win now philosophy. Why would anyone sacrifice winning now for a shot at winning later? As I say that of course I mean all things being equal.

EBF took the approach that young will lead to winners in fantasy football. But the odds are not in his favor that will happen. Few 1st round picks become fantasy studs.

Why pass on surefire fantasy players that you can get now for the opportunity to draft players that may or may not turn out good? We don't even know who they are. Plus, he doesn't know what picks they will be. They could all be mid to low rounders with little stud value.

IMO-I want what I know I can get today. Players that are proven and can help me win now. I'll worry about next year after this one. In fact, a well built fantasy team now will have a chance to win for several years if built properly.

You had an interesting draft. I think you took on a lot of unnecessary risk. I was shaking my head when you took Tatum Bell and Chester Taylor on the turn. That's not to say that they won't work out for you, but that's an awful lot of risk to stomach when you consider the proven stud WRs who were still available.

Risk seems to be the theme of your draft. A lot of these guys have some serious question marks. Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Daunte Culpepper, Chris Brown, Chris Henry, Kellen Winslow. A couple of those guys will pay huge dividends, but you'll also get a couple flops. Culpepper is human without Moss. Brown may not even be the starter next season. Walker, Moss, and Winslow have injury issues. Henry is a thug.

I respect a home run hitting drafting style in a dynasty draft, but I think you may have taken it a bit too far. I think you're going to look back on this draft in a few years and regret half of your picks.

That said, you certainly have a chance to be competitive. You have a lot of potential stars here. If you catch some breaks, you could be very tough.

link to EBF's thread is same as HTF's thread

also is there a straight up link to the draft?

would be an interesting view

Here ya'go

http://football8.myfantasyleague.com/2005/...ns?L=73850&O=17

Also we have thread of running commentary

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=237234

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead. You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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FM is no new guy bud.

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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FM is no new guy bud.
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Well he got taken like one in that trade.

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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The first 3 picks ended up being:LJ, S. Moss, and Stallworth (traded pick)

Cadillac, R. Moss, and Branch

I don't think that qualifies as rape.

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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FM is no new guy bud.
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Well he got taken like one in that trade.
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I just put it into the trade calculator and it does show a 14% advantage for JAA. I don't know whether that classifies as rape or not, but this is clearly a case of different people placing different values on players. If FM thinks LJ is going to be the next great RB for the next few years, then what he gave up will be well worth it.

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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FM is no new guy bud.
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Well he got taken like one in that trade.
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I just put it into the trade calculator and it does show a 14% advantage for JAA. I don't know whether that classifies as rape or not, but this is clearly a case of different people placing different values on players. If FM thinks LJ is going to be the next great RB for the next few years, then what he gave up will be well worth it.
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There's the key Rads. If LJ becomes the nest Faulk or Holmes, then the 14% loss on the trade is peanuts. Sometimes you have to take risks and I took one there. I was going for the homerun and that's all there is to it.Frankly with the value that was left in the later rounds I feel my team can compete with anyone.

Edit: In another draft, I was criticized for taking Alexander over Brown and Jackson with a 5 pick. Just goes to show how people think differently.

link to EBF's thread is same as HTF's thread

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fixed, thanks

You had an interesting draft. I think you took on a lot of unnecessary risk. I was shaking my head when you took Tatum Bell and Chester Taylor on the turn. That's not to say that they won't work out for you, but that's an awful lot of risk to stomach when you consider the proven stud WRs who were still available.

Risk seems to be the theme of your draft. A lot of these guys have some serious question marks. Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Daunte Culpepper, Chris Brown, Chris Henry, Kellen Winslow. A couple of those guys will pay huge dividends, but you'll also get a couple flops. Culpepper is human without Moss. Brown may not even be the starter next season. Walker, Moss, and Winslow have injury issues. Henry is a thug.

I respect a home run hitting drafting style in a dynasty draft, but I think you may have taken it a bit too far. I think you're going to look back on this draft in a few years and regret half of your picks.

That said, you certainly have a chance to be competitive. You have a lot of potential stars here. If you catch some breaks, you could be very tough.

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Thanks for the critique, a little background. I used to be purely risk adverse. Even as much as last season. I have become much less risk adverse over the past two seasons. The reason why is simple: inury. I used to target the sure fire players in round 1. The guys like Ahamn, Deuce, Jamal, etc. These were supposed to be the guys that no matter what, would put up good points each week. They were the premier RBs on premier running teams. What I found was that even if you do draft purely to avoid risk, no matter what, every pick is risky.Lets look at my 22, 24, 25 picks:

2.10 22 The Brown Dog (JAA) Moss, Randy OAK WR Sun Apr 30 4:20:40 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

2.11 23 Bucketheads  Davis, Domanick HOU RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006

2.12 24 The Brown Dog (JAA) Taylor, Chester MIN RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

3.01 25 The Brown Dog (JAA) Bell, Tatum DEN RB Sun Apr 30 4:26:12 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

3.02 26 Bucketheads  Williams, Walter FA RB Sun Apr 30 5:25:22 p.m. ET 2006 pick is DeAngelo Williams

3.03 27 HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps)  Jones, Kevin DET RB Sun Apr 30 5:56:29 p.m. ET 2006

3.04 28 SofaKings Parker, Willie PIT RB Sun Apr 30 9:02:05 p.m. ET 2006 Job security is great in Pittsburgh.

3.05 29 Pimpin Ain't Easy Jones, Julius DAL RB Sun Apr 30 9:25:44 p.m. ET 2006

3.06 30 Seattle Stars Owens, Terrell DAL WR Sun Apr 30 9:38:01 p.m. ET 2006 Gamebreaker WR!

3.07 31 Patoons Abdullah, Rabih FA RB Sun Apr 30 10:19:45 p.m. ET 2006 Pick is Laurence Maroney

3.08 32 HTF (Hear-the-Footsteps)  Droughns, Reuben CLE RB Sun Apr 30 10:34:48 p.m. ET 2006

3.09 33 Seattle Stars Lewis, Jamal BAL RB Sun Apr 30 10:45:38 p.m. ET 2006 Hope he can rebound from 2005. Can't believe he's still only 26!

3.10 34 Louisville Llamas Harrison, Marvin IND WR Sun Apr 30 10:45:38 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

3.11 35 Coolest Nerds on the Planet McAllister, Deuce NOS RB Sun Apr 30 10:49:37 p.m. ET 2006 Reggie who ????

3.12 36 radballs Jackson, Darrell SEA WR Sun Apr 30 11:46:00 p.m. ET 2006

4.01 37 Patoons Wayne, Reggie IND WR Sun Apr 30 11:46:00 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

4.02 38 Coolest Nerds on the Planet Benson, Cedric CHI RB Sun Apr 30 11:46:00 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

4.03 39 Louisville Llamas Jones, Thomas CHI RB Sun Apr 30 11:46:00 p.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

4.04 40 Family Matters Alexis, Rich JAC RB Mon May 1 8:02:42 a.m. ET 2006 My pick is rookie Joseph Addai, RB, Colts

4.05 41 Patoons Ward, Hines PIT WR Mon May 1 8:02:42 a.m. ET 2006 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

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Which players, WRs included, could I have selected instead of Bell and Taylor? TO, Ward, Wayne and Jackson? Kevin, Julius, and Thomas Jones? Aside from personal rankings, there is no way to know which of these players will perform better. Per my article, you know I am adverse to rookies (for good reason), you know I wanted RBs, preferably youthfull ones in offenses that they can catch the ball. Specifically, which players do you tihnk I should have taken and why? THe only player I was unsure about, that I would have loved to have was Reuben. However, I think Rueben's ceiling is a lot lower than Taylor's and Bell's. I will conceed he is a less risky pick, but certainly not by much.Take this with a grain of salt, but I find it rather humorous that you are calling my draft risky. You do realize you drafted Bush #3 prior to the NFL draft right? You drafted Fitz with the 9th pick. Ben Roth as your #1 QB. Two rookie RBs as your #1 and #2. That my friend, is how I define risk

One last point: "You have a lot of potential stars here"

None of my core players are potential stars. They all have shown to be stars in the NFL. Each of them have proven their ability to be productive in the NFL. The same cannot be said for your team.

This reply is simply offerring a counter-point to your constructive criticism. I welcome it and dont want you to think I am dismissing it. Simply discussing it

Looked like we were headed into a good post, but I had to stop after reading about the first trade because that just gives whatever strategy you used afterwards a false sense of accomplishment because you're starting so far ahead.  You totally raped the guy on that trade, so any strategy you used after that is going to look better than it normally would assuming we can't all find a new guy to steal draft picks from.

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Well, I think it was a good trade for me. He thinks it is a good trade for him. I dont understand you comments. Its possible for the trade to give him everything he wants as well as giving me what I want. People value picks differently, that is how trades happen. He wanted the 1.01. I wouldnt give it up unless I was able to acquire 4 picks in the top 40. He decided that it was worth it to him.

Which players, WRs included, could I have selected instead of Bell and Taylor? 

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I think Ward and Roy Williams will outscore those RBs over the next few years. There were probably a few other top WRs out there.

Take this with a grain of salt, but I find it rather humorous that you are calling my draft risky.  You do realize you drafted Bush #3 prior to the NFL draft right?  You drafted Fitz with the 9th pick.  Ben Roth as your #1 QB.  Two rookie RBs as your #1 and #2.  That my friend, is how I define risk

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That's a fair point, but I view Bush as an exception to the rule. He's better than Cadillac, Jackson, Brown, and KJ were at this point in their careers. I see no problem with taking him over those guys (who also haven't proven a whole lot).Roethlisberger is a proven talent. Ditto Fitzgerald and Shockey.

White is unproven, but he was a value pick where I got him.

Coles and Bryant are veterans with long track records of solid production.

One last point:  "You have a lot of potential stars here"

None of my core players are potential stars.  They all have shown to be stars in the NFL.  Each of them have proven their ability to be productive in the NFL.  The same cannot be said for your team.

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Chester Taylor and Tatum Bell are not stars. Randy Moss and Javon Walker have had Pro Bowl seasons, but both players have to answer some serious question marks. Culpepper has not proven to be a star without Moss. Winslow has done nothing. Like I said, you have a lot of potential stars, but you don't have many guys that you can bank on. Some of them will eventually work out. Some of them will be huge busts.

When I look at the rosters and draft overall in this league, it was not a question of whether or not an owner would take a risk, but a question of when in the draft, at what position, and the nature of the risk is taken. Fantasy football is a game of risk. Manipulating and understanding the risk is vital to success in our activity.

Do you take unproven players? Do you take guys who are coming off injury? Do you take guys look to be in better situation than before? Do take older, proven players with seemingly limited upside?

Overtime, the owners who manage risk the best, will consistent and competitive year in year out.

Thanks to you three for posting these comments. I am in the fourth round of an initial FBG dynasty draft now, the first I've done since my initial one in 2003 (same league as EBF). It is very interesting to see the different thought processes that drive different approaches. It's also interesting to see how I am incorporating what I've learned from my first three years in a dynasty to this current one. Good stuff, guys.

I just reread this today. I thought it might be helpfull for folks getting ready to do some drafting.

When I look at the rosters and draft overall in this league, it was not a question of whether or not an owner would take a risk, but a question of when in the draft, at what position, and the nature of the risk is taken. Fantasy football is a game of risk. Manipulating and understanding the risk is vital to success in our activity.

Do you take unproven players? Do you take guys who are coming off injury? Do you take guys look to be in better situation than before? Do take older, proven players with seemingly limited upside?

Overtime, the owners who manage risk the best, will consistent and competitive year in year out.

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Somehow I missed this post. Those of you that took the time to review our draft, I'd like to hear what your thoughts are on each team, how they drafted, and your eval of the teams.Gotta agree with wholeheartedly, Dog, on the WIN NOW. But since it's dynasty, I prefer the WIN NOW, WIN LATER approach which mandates you have to strike that fine balance between proven vets, up & coming players still riding the bench, and value rookie plays.

I too would never draft a rookie in the early rounds, no matter how much promise or how great they played in college. The NFL is completely different in play, speed & strength of players, and grueling regiment required to succeed. Many guys play very well in college, but few have the combination of stamina, determination, intelligence, and fortitude that the NFL demands of its best performers.

I partially agree with EBF (can't believe I typed that) on the performance of WRs in this league. Since it is PPR, Heinz Ward and Roy Williams will probably outperform Taylor and Bell. However, I do like the idea of a strong RB corp, which is why I drafted 3 out of the gate (although some will argue that Tiki is in decline and FWP is a one year wonder).

What you may lack is versatility to adapt to adverse playing conditions (like a rash of injuries) in this format. RBs get injured more than WRs. If 3 of your RBs go down, can your team go from 4RBs, 1 WR to 1RB, 4WRs & still be competitive?

I think the better solution was to plan on using a 3/2 combination of RBs/WRs and have the ability to easily adjust to a 2/3 in such an event.

JAA I think this is a good thread for discussion of draft philosophy and as I have a bit of time right now I will give a critique.

The 1st thing that needs to be looked at is the starting requirements and scoring.

This league allows 3 flex at Rb Wr Te but only requires one player from each position starting. The scoring gives one point/reception (a scoring system I really dislike) and therefore really boosts the scoring of pas catching Rbs and Wrs.

Clearly the ideal lineup will be 4 Rb that catch a lot of passes with one awesome Wr. Your trade helped you to be in a better position to get 4 of these players early.

I understand your taking Caddy with your 1st pick. He is my choice at that draft slot also but not in this scoring format. Because of the pts/reception I think Brown or Jackson would have been a better pick. jmo

I definitly agree with your taking Moss where you did. And Chester Taylor who is a risky pick but should pay off. I would have taken Rueben over Bell however.

4 reasons:

1. pts/reception Rueben caught a lot of passes last year and should continue to do so. He doesen't need the TDs as much in this scoring system.

2. Browns have been focusing on upgrading thier Oline. You recognise this with Chester Taylor but perhaps overlooked it for Rueben?

3. Risk management. You took Taylor who has high upside but is less proven. This strays from your win now philospohy. I think you could have balanced this out by making a safer pick of Rueben instead of Bell who also has lots of question marks.

4. Rueben is not so old. He should still have a good 3 year window of production. Im thinking age may have influenced your pick of Bell. On top of the Denver offense of course.

So this is the 1st foundation of your team. 3 Rbs and 1 Wr. Now we move to the middle draft.

You picked Javon Walker next. I agree he has the potential to be great Wr as he has shown before. He is young. These are the players I think you should have considered instead though:

Tony Gonzalez- he is getting somewhat old but should still catch a lot of passes over the next 3 years as the primary target in thier offense. Filling your Te requirement with a player who will likely catch as many if not more passes than Walker is value.

Todd Heap- see Gonzo except Heap is younger if that is a factor of consideraton.

Jerey Shockey- See above with more tude.

Warick Dunn- Dunn is old but him and Ahman Green are the only starting Rbs left available who have been known to catch a lot of passes.

Ahman Green- See above has injury questions though.

Donald Driver and Deion Branch- these 2 Wrs should see a ton of targets in 2006 and be very good starters in 2006. Branch fits the 3 year window better than Driver because of the uncertaity of when Favre will retire. To be fair at the time of this draft I think Favres status was still unknown.

So what I am seeing is that your not sticking to your win now pilosophy. I think your taking a more balanced approach.

Next pick you traded up to get Branch. Good move but you gave up some value for the trade and still did not fill a starting requirement.

Now your team is more balanced 3 Rb 3 Wr.

Your not going for the kill shot by taking best players to fill your lineup. What I see you doing is more of a BPA approach that values youth that has shown they can perform at a high level in the NFL.

CPep

Chris Brown

A Brooks

I like the Qb picks and Brown was definitly a nice value where you got him. It remains to be seen if he can hold off White for the starting job or if he beomes a COP now.

Im still wondering why you sluffed the Te position? I think it is more important in a pts/reception league to get a Te that catches a lot of passes. Then in round 9 you take KW2 who has done nothing. Watson (likely target 2 for Brady now) Troupe and Dallas Clark (could see a lot of targets now with Edge gone) all still available and I think would have been better picks.

You gambled on a 3rd year rookie who has not proven anything.

Your next group of picks seem very questionable. Almost like panic or distraction have set in.. Your starting lineup is still not setted at Te yet.

Chris Henry- this is a pure talent player. A sleeper pick that you will stash and hope he gets a starting gig elsewhere if he cleans up his life. He is not going to overtake Housh in the lineup any time soon.

Neil Rackers - ouch too early for Kicker. I would like the pick better if Te sitch had allready been resolved.

Keary Colbert- not sure if MeShawn had signed yet with Carolina at the time of this pick but still.. not sure why your taking him here.

Players I think you should have taken:

Mewelde Moore to cover early risk on CT

TJ Duckett Rb value for insurance

Kevin Curtis definitly a better Wr prospect than Henry or Colbert

CuMart/Cedrick Houston

I think you hurt yourself mid-draft and could have come away quite a bit better than you did. I am seeing your philosophy being more talent/youth focused than on winning now.

to be continued..

Wow. This should be titled "Russian novelist transitions into Dynasty FF" I do agree 100% with win now for an initial draft though. I did also like the insight into where and why picks were made. I'm not the expert in Dynasty most or all of you are though. Only played it about 4 years now.