dgreen
Footballguy
We've all heard that about half of the top 10 RBs change every year. But, what I wondered was, "Where do those 5 RBs come from?" I mean, it's nice to know that half change, but even nicer if you know where to look for those guys.
From 1990-2005, there were 160 top 10 RBs. Of those 160, 86 were not in the top 10 in the prior year. So, where were they in year n-1?
Rank Count11-20 3221-30 931-50 1251+ 17College 16Over half (48 of 86) were either ranked 11-20 or in the previous year or they are now rookies. Here are the rookies (I know McGahee technically wasn't a rookie in 2004):Willis McGahee 2004
Clinton Portis 2002
Ladainian Tomlinson 2001
Mike Anderson 2000
Edgerrin James 1999
Fred Taylor 1998
Robert Edwards 1998
Corey Dillon 1997
Eddie George 1996
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996
Curtis Martin 1995
Marshall Faulk 1994
Jerome Bettis 1993
Terry Kirby 1993
Ricky Watters 1992
Emmitt Smith 1990
Most of these were fairly predictable, IMO. Not many of these guys came out of nowhere. Mike Anderson, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, and Terry Kirby were most likely the biggest surprises.
So, if we can look at last year's 11-20 and this year's rookies for half of these guys, that still leaves a couple spots open from last year's 21+.
Here's the prior year 21-30 guys:
Larry Johnson 2005
Edgerrin James 2003
Travis Henry 2002
Fred Taylor 2000
Robert Smith 2000
Napolean Kaufman 1997
Natrone Means 1994
Christian Okoye 1991
Marion Butts 1990
Other than Kaufman, these guys didn't really come out of nowhere. They were guys coming off injury with previous success, second year guys who were handed over the reins after decent rookie years, or a guy (LJ) that was a hot commodity in drafts.
Here's the prior year 31-50 guys:
Lamont Jordan 2005
Mike Anderson 2005
Corey Dillon 2004
Priest Holmes 2001
Antowain Smith 2001
Charlie Garner 1999
Jerome Bettis 1996
Marcus Allen 1993
Barry Foster 1992
Terry Allen 1992
Lorenzo White 1992
Rodney Hampton 1991
Several of these were predictable because they were known talents who changed teams (Jordan, Dillon, Holmes, and Bettis).
Here's the prior year 51+ guys:
Deuce McAllister 2002
Shaun Alexander 2001
Ahman Green 2000
Stephen Davis 1999
Dorsey Levens 1999
Jamal Anderson 1996
Derek Loville 1995
Leroy Hoard 1994
Harvey Williams 1994
Leonard Russell 1993
Gary Brown 1993
Erric Pegram 1993
Cleveland Gary 1992
Robert Delpino 1991
Derrick Fenner 1990
Cleveland Gary 1990
Lorenzo White 1990
This scenario seems to be decreasing, with only three cases in the last 6 years. I don't remember the circumstances behind many of the earlier situations (please post if you know). The more recent situations (Stephen Davis up to Deuce McAllister) are guys who were backups the previous year on, at the very least, average offenses and named the starter prior to the season.
So, where does that leave us? For this year's top 10, we will probably see 5 from last year's top 10, 2 from 11-20, 2 from 21+ (probably a guy that was low because of injury or just waiting in the wings), and one rookie.
Not sure if this will help any. I wasn't really surprised by the results. As we all know, you still have to pick "the right guy" out of the many available.
Other side notes I found. Only once has the #1 RB come from outside the prior year's top 7 and that was a well-known rookie (Edgerrin James 1999). A rookie has been in the top 10 in 13 of the last 16 years. Two of those three years it didn't happen have been in the last three years. Three times there have been two rookies and never more than two.
From 1990-2005, there were 160 top 10 RBs. Of those 160, 86 were not in the top 10 in the prior year. So, where were they in year n-1?
Rank Count11-20 3221-30 931-50 1251+ 17College 16Over half (48 of 86) were either ranked 11-20 or in the previous year or they are now rookies. Here are the rookies (I know McGahee technically wasn't a rookie in 2004):Willis McGahee 2004
Clinton Portis 2002
Ladainian Tomlinson 2001
Mike Anderson 2000
Edgerrin James 1999
Fred Taylor 1998
Robert Edwards 1998
Corey Dillon 1997
Eddie George 1996
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 1996
Curtis Martin 1995
Marshall Faulk 1994
Jerome Bettis 1993
Terry Kirby 1993
Ricky Watters 1992
Emmitt Smith 1990
Most of these were fairly predictable, IMO. Not many of these guys came out of nowhere. Mike Anderson, Karim Abdul-Jabbar, and Terry Kirby were most likely the biggest surprises.
So, if we can look at last year's 11-20 and this year's rookies for half of these guys, that still leaves a couple spots open from last year's 21+.
Here's the prior year 21-30 guys:
Larry Johnson 2005
Edgerrin James 2003
Travis Henry 2002
Fred Taylor 2000
Robert Smith 2000
Napolean Kaufman 1997
Natrone Means 1994
Christian Okoye 1991
Marion Butts 1990
Other than Kaufman, these guys didn't really come out of nowhere. They were guys coming off injury with previous success, second year guys who were handed over the reins after decent rookie years, or a guy (LJ) that was a hot commodity in drafts.
Here's the prior year 31-50 guys:
Lamont Jordan 2005
Mike Anderson 2005
Corey Dillon 2004
Priest Holmes 2001
Antowain Smith 2001
Charlie Garner 1999
Jerome Bettis 1996
Marcus Allen 1993
Barry Foster 1992
Terry Allen 1992
Lorenzo White 1992
Rodney Hampton 1991
Several of these were predictable because they were known talents who changed teams (Jordan, Dillon, Holmes, and Bettis).
Here's the prior year 51+ guys:
Deuce McAllister 2002
Shaun Alexander 2001
Ahman Green 2000
Stephen Davis 1999
Dorsey Levens 1999
Jamal Anderson 1996
Derek Loville 1995
Leroy Hoard 1994
Harvey Williams 1994
Leonard Russell 1993
Gary Brown 1993
Erric Pegram 1993
Cleveland Gary 1992
Robert Delpino 1991
Derrick Fenner 1990
Cleveland Gary 1990
Lorenzo White 1990
This scenario seems to be decreasing, with only three cases in the last 6 years. I don't remember the circumstances behind many of the earlier situations (please post if you know). The more recent situations (Stephen Davis up to Deuce McAllister) are guys who were backups the previous year on, at the very least, average offenses and named the starter prior to the season.
So, where does that leave us? For this year's top 10, we will probably see 5 from last year's top 10, 2 from 11-20, 2 from 21+ (probably a guy that was low because of injury or just waiting in the wings), and one rookie.
Not sure if this will help any. I wasn't really surprised by the results. As we all know, you still have to pick "the right guy" out of the many available.
Other side notes I found. Only once has the #1 RB come from outside the prior year's top 7 and that was a well-known rookie (Edgerrin James 1999). A rookie has been in the top 10 in 13 of the last 16 years. Two of those three years it didn't happen have been in the last three years. Three times there have been two rookies and never more than two.
I'll post mine later.
