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Player Spotlight: Ronnie Brown (2 Viewers)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ronnie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
There is something I don't like about Brown, can't put my finger on it. He is not in my top 10 RB's so I know he won't be on any of my teams this year. But he has quite the opportunity with everything going on in Miami...so much to like...I will probably wrong on this but sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.

950 yds 6 tds

265 yds 1 tds

 
There is something I don't like about Brown, can't put my finger on it. He is not in my top 10 RB's so I know he won't be on any of my teams this year. But he has quite the opportunity with everything going on in Miami...so much to like...I will probably wrong on this but sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.

950 yds 6 tds

265 yds 1 tds
Click to expand...
What do you see for the amount of rushes and receptions he has or are you just throwing those #s out there?
 
Ronnie Brown

285 Rushing Attempts

4.22 YPC

1204 Rushing Yards

10 Rushing TDs

41 Receptions

8.2 YPR

336 Receiving Yards

2 Receiving TDs

223 Fantasy Points (9th ranked RB)

While Ricky is long gone to the CFL, you can not simply assume that Brown will take over for all of Ricky's carries, TDs, etc. Ronnie will still be on the lower end of feature RB in terms of the proportion of RB carries/receptions for the team.
It is a postive that Ronnie knows beforehand that Ricky will not be around because he will then have the mindset and attitude that he will be getting the bulk of the load.
The addition of Beasely and the improvement of the O-line is being overlooked, but is a major positive for Brown.
 
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There is something I don't like about Brown, can't put my finger on it.  He is not in my top 10 RB's so I know he won't be on any of my teams this year.  But he has quite the opportunity with everything going on in Miami...so much to like...I will probably wrong on this but sometimes you just gotta go with your gut.

950 yds 6 tds

265 yds 1 tds
Click to expand...
What do you see for the amount of rushes and receptions he has or are you just throwing those #s out there?
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I can get more specific tomorrow...this was off the cuff...I had him missing 4 games or so with right around a 4 yd per carry...no clue on the rec...just remember it was a little more than 250 rec yds
 
Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Rookie running backs drafted in the first round need to be used and abused. If Brown is available at the #7 pick in rd. 1, I'm scooping him up.

374/1683/12

 
Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Rookie running backs drafted in the first round need to be used and abused. If Brown is available at the #7 pick in rd. 1, I'm scooping him up.

374/1683/12
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374 rushes???......there were ZERO RBs last year that had over 370 rushes. Keep dreaming.
 
Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Rookie running backs drafted in the first round need to be used and abused.  If Brown is available at the #7 pick in rd. 1, I'm scooping him up.

374/1683/12
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374 rushes???......there were ZERO RBs last year that had over 370 rushes. Keep dreaming.
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Maybe he combined everything and that was rushes and receptions and total yardage and total TDs? Or maybe I'm wrong.
 
Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Rookie running backs drafted in the first round need to be used and abused. If Brown is available at the #7 pick in rd. 1, I'm scooping him up.

374/1683/12
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374 rushes???......there were ZERO RBs last year that had over 370 rushes. Keep dreaming.
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Maybe he combined everything and that was rushes and receptions and total yardage and total TDs? Or maybe I'm wrong.
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Could very well be, but its peculiar that it works out to 4.5 yards per carry exactly.
 
I think he'll just fall short of 300 carries...

287 at 4.2ypc

1205 + 9 TDs

40 catches for 300-320 cant see more than 3-4 in the air.

That would put him around the 8-10 mark I think so not a bad pick with all the RBs who you could take a chance on this yr.

 
I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.

 
I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
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If you can get Ronnie Brown in the third or fourth round of a redraft league good for you. The other 99% of us will have to make our descion around pick #9, #10 or #11.
 
Ronnie will get the bulk of the carries, but there's no way he's going to be hitting that 370 mark that was mentioned earlier. Saban was never comfortable with beating one runningback into submission, a la Wannstedt. Whoever works out to be the primary back, probably Sammy Morris, will see some time to give Ronnie a breather here and there. Still, Ronnie is freakishly talented and I feel like he'll put up big numbers when he's in.

288/1230/11 rushing

26/211/1 receiving

 
The addition of Beasely and the improvement of the O-line is being overlooked, but is a major positive for Brown.
Click to expand...
Excellent point.Nobody is taking this into account at all. Beasley is one of the better FB in the league and he will be used as a battering ram to spring Ronnie Brown into the secondary.

The Oline coming into it's 2nd year under Houck will only get better as well.

 
What RBs are going to take carries from Brown? Willams, yes. Sammy Morris, I don't think so. I really don't understand why guys are predicting Brown to have a light workload. You don't draft a guy 2nd overall to have him share carries.

310/1364/12

40/300/2

350/1664/14

250.4 total points

 
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I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
Click to expand...
3rd or 4th? Are those money leagues? Any open spots?
 
I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's.  Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year.  His TD totals a total crap shoot.  This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
Click to expand...
If you can get Ronnie Brown in the third or fourth round of a redraft league good for you. The other 99% of us will have to make our descion around pick #9, #10 or #11.
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:goodposting:
 
I honestly do not think its likely that Brown will go for 1750+ total yds and 13-15 tds... that would be his ceiling, imho. I think his numbers will be very solid, but lower than many seem to think:

Rush Yds - 1200

Rush Tds - 9

Recs - 35

Rec Yds - 250

Rec Tds - 1

 
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I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
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What?????????? Late 3rd early 4th for Ronnie brown??? This has to be a misprint.1400yds 13 tds

254 yds 1 td

 
The addition of Beasely and the improvement of the O-line is being overlooked, but is a major positive for Brown.
Click to expand...
Excellent point.Nobody is taking this into account at all. Beasley is one of the better FB in the league and he will be used as a battering ram to spring Ronnie Brown into the secondary.

The Oline coming into it's 2nd year under Houck will only get better as well.
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Simple, to the point and brilliant. Miami's O-line was playing much better in the 2nd 1/2 of the season (see W-L record) and will continue to improve for another year or two. Beasley is an absolute beast as a FB. Granted, he's getting a little older, but living in N.Cali I am at the disadvantage of watching the Raiders and 49ers every week. Beasley has been the best player on that team since T.O. left and nobody has anything bad to say about him off the field either.As for Ronnie Brown, I watched many Auburn games over the last few years and there's nothing the guy can't do. He runs well and hard. Pretty good vision, not a lot of wiggle but tons of fight. Remember he was also called by several scouts "the best reciever in this draft... and not just RBs." Don't forget he also played FB on many plays so that Ronnie and Cadillac could share the backfield and is and excellent blocker both for the run and for the pass (if you care, pull up the Georgia game and watch him annihilate both T.Davis and Blue). Because of this, I don't see him being taken off the field for any reason other than a breather. He will be the best runner, blocker and reciever that Miami has in the backfield.

Barring injury I don't see any reason for less than 300 carries and at a modest ypc should be a minimum of 1,300 yards. TDs are tough because of R/Z threats McMichael and Chambers as well as the underrated Beasley. Good recievers don't bode well for his reception #s and neither does his pass blocking ability, but thanks to Beasley's ability again, he should be able to run enough routes to pull in 40+ receptions. Minimums of 1,300 yards on the ground and 300 recieving sound pretty good to me and the fact that it should come on a pretty concistent basis (since he will not be giving up much time to a 2nd RB) week to week also makes him that much more appealing as a fantasy back. If he were to fall to the end of the 1st in your league, trade up!

 
Ronnie Brown had at most 23 carries in any one game last year. Raster is gone, but Saban will not run the wheels off R Brown. I see him getting several games at 20 to 25 and a few around 15. I'll go with a total of 320.

His ypc was the same as Raster last year 4.4. I see him able to almost match that even with significantly more carries as the Dolphins improve on offense. I'll go with around 4.3.

I think his targets stay about the same at 50 with 35 catches averaging 8.0 ypc, a slight improvement.

Totals 320 carries for 1377 yards and 10 TDs.

35 receptions for 277 yards and 2 more TDs.

Very close to top five RB and serious value at pick nine to twelve.

Major value if you play in the one league where he falls to the third round. :X

 
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310/1426/12

50/420/1

Top 5 RB this season IMO
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4.6 yards per carry thats a little high more like 320 carries 1152 yards 9tds. 3.6 yards per carry.
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Thats not high at all.His first game I wont count because he was getting used to the NFL game there.

After that, in games where he started (17+ carries) he had a 5.1 ypc. No way does he repeat that, but he'll average 4.6, don't worry about. Remember, the guy runs a 4.3 and is friggin HUGE. He'll do fine

 
I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
Click to expand...
Is that a 4-team league?
 
Ronnie Brown has the two things needed to excel in FF: ability and opportunity. No one doubts his ability: he excelled at Auburn, and was taken at the tippy-top of last years draft. (BTW, year two seems historically to be the breakout year for RBs.) As to opportunity: Ricky is gone, the O-line after two years of work has jelled, the QB problem, if not solved, will cause nightmares to opposing defensive play callers, and the AFC East opponents D's are weakening (NE), weak (NYJ), and really really weak (Buf). A bulldog at the goal-line who could be a fullback. A value pick after pick 6.

300/1200/10 30/200/1

 
Ronnie Brown has the two things needed to excel in FF: ability and opportunity. No one doubts his ability: he excelled at Auburn, and was taken at the tippy-top of last years draft. (BTW, year two seems historically to be the breakout year for RBs.) As to opportunity: Ricky is gone, the O-line after two years of work has jelled, the QB problem, if not solved, will cause nightmares to opposing defensive play callers, and the AFC East opponents D's are weakening (NE), weak (NYJ), and really really weak (Buf). A bulldog at the goal-line who could be a fullback. A value pick after pick 6.

300/1200/10 30/200/1
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And the icing on the cake is he won't come out on third downs due to him being one of the best wr's on the team.
 
I posted this in another Ronnie Brown thread, so I thought I would post it here, too...

Let's look at some RBs that had similar rookie years as Ronnie Brown and see what happened in their second year. I wasn't sure what criteria to use when talking about "similar years," so I just took all RBs who had between 800-1000 rushing yards in their rookie season (Brown had 907) for comparison's sake. If you can think of a better criteria for comparison, let me know.

Over the past 25 years, 14 RBs met the criteria set forth.

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Ronnie Brown rb 2005 24 1 15 207 907 4.38 4 32 232 7.25 1 143.902 Julius Jones rb 2004 23 1 8 197 819 4.16 7 17 109 6.41 0 134.803 William Green rb 2002 23 1 16 243 887 3.65 6 16 113 7.06 0 136.004 Marcel Shipp rb 2002 24 1 15 188 834 4.44 6 38 413 10.87 3 178.705 Ricky Williams rb 1999 22 1 12 253 884 3.49 2 28 172 6.14 0 117.606 Warrick Dunn rb 1997 22 1 16 224 978 4.37 4 39 462 11.85 3 186.007 Fred Lane rb 1997 22 1 13 182 809 4.45 7 8 27 3.38 0 125.608 Antowain Smith rb 1997 25 1 16 194 840 4.33 8 28 177 6.32 0 149.709 Rodney Thomas rb 1995 22 1 16 251 947 3.77 5 39 204 5.23 2 157.1010 Bam Morris rb 1994 22 1 15 198 836 4.22 7 22 204 9.27 0 146.0011 Leonard Russell rb 1991 22 1 16 266 959 3.61 4 18 81 4.50 0 128.0012 Johnny Johnson rb 1990 22 1 14 234 926 3.96 5 25 241 9.64 0 146.7013 Emmitt Smith rb 1990 21 1 16 241 937 3.89 11 24 228 9.50 0 182.5014 Thurman Thomas rb 1988 22 1 15 207 881 4.26 2 18 208 11.56 0 120.90Now let's look at how each one of these guys did in their second year:Julius Jones - 257/993/3.9/5, 35/218/6.2/0

Missed time due to injury during both years

William Green - 142/559/3.9/1, 10/50/5.0/0

Only played 7 games due to disciplinary reasons IIRC (possibly injury, too)

Marcell Shipp - 228/830/3.6/0, 30/184/6.1/0

Cardinals were ridiculously bad on offense, scoring a league-low 225 points. Emmitt was on this team but only got 90 carries playing in 10 games. How anyone can touch the ball 258 times and not accidentally find the end zone is beyond me.

Ricky Williams - 248/1000/4.0/8, 44/409/9.3/1

Was having a great season before getting hurt in the 10th game

Warrick Dunn - 245/1026/4.2/2, 44/344/7.8/0

Alstott got 215 carries and 8 TDs

Fred Lane - 205/717/3.5/5, 12/85/7.1/0

Panthers were the third worst rushing team in the NFL, Biakabatuka got 101 carries

Antowain Smith - 300/1124/3.7/8, 5/11/2.2/0

After splitting carries with Thurman Thomas his rookie year, Antowain got the lion's share in year two.

Rodney Thomas - 49/151/3.1/1, 13/128/9.8/0

Hello, Eddie George. Goodbye, Rodney Thomas.

Bam Morris - 148/559/3.8/9, 8/36/4.5/0

Erric Pegram got most of the work.

Leonard Russell - 266/959/3.6/4, 11/24/2.2/0

Only played in 11 games, split time with Jon Vaughn and John Stephens. Yikes.

Johnny Johnson - 196/666/3.4/4, 29/225/7.8/2

Split time with Anthony Thompson.

Emmitt Smith - 365/1563/4.3/12, 49/258/5.3/1

Welcome to Greatness

Thurman Thomas - 298/1244/4.2/6, 60/669/11.2/6

No explanation needed.

Barring injury, I think Antowain Smith's season is the floor for Brown (with more receptions), and I think his ceiling is just a little shy of Emmitt's season.

 
310/1426/12

50/420/1

Top 5 RB this season IMO
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4.6 yards per carry thats a little high more like 320 carries 1152 yards 9tds. 3.6 yards per carry.
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3.6 is way too low, with that offense they'll have defenses on their heels and the o-line has the best coach in the nfl..put him on 4.4 per carry.

330 carries, 1452, 14 tds..

a bull in a china shop. cakewalk afc east 4 games vs JETS and Bills, and lets remember, the Pats didn't exactly have a great run stuffing D last year,either.

if I'm not mistaken the Fish play one of the easiest run schedules in the NFL.. 6 of their first 7 games are against pushover run defenses, and I include NE in that:

(in no order) houston, tenn, buff,jets,NE,GB..bye..

a tough game vs. chicago

then it gets REAL easy:

kc ,minny,detroit..

then j'ville and a final 4 games during fantasy playoffs that'll make your mouth water..

NE

buff

jets

indy..

NE isn't what they used to be, and Indy is too small and will likely have 2nd stringers out anyways,since they'll be 13-2 at that point..

but Buff and Jets in fantasy playoff weeks is worth its weight in gold.

 
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I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
Click to expand...
Um... maybe it's just me, maybe it's because I'm in a 16 team league, but Brownie will be long gone after the 1st round. Hell I'm considering taking him at #5. :confused:
 
I did not see one reply on the subject of DC vulturing short yardage TD's. Other then that, I see RB getting at least 1100 yards rushing, with 300+ yards receiving this year. His TD totals a total crap shoot. This being said, I see him as a top 15-20 RB with high pootential of top 12.

Nice value in late 3rd to early 4th in re draft leagues.
Click to expand...
If you can get Ronnie Brown in the third or fourth round of a redraft league good for you. The other 99% of us will have to make our descion around pick #9, #10 or #11.
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I was thinking the same thing. I pick at 3 in a 10-team redraft (1 PPR) and don't expect to see him when my second pick comes around at 18. I think he'll be gone in the 9-14 range in our league and someone will be satisfied. If he's there for me at 18, I'll have a touch decision to make between him and say a Torry Holt, considering our PPR.
 
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I like Ronnie Brown a lot this season. Holding the 6th pick in our redraft spot has me thinking of just snagging Ronnie right there. He brings everything to the table that the top backs have except a history of tons of carries. I have the same issue with Cadillac, but what separates them in my mind is the Ronnie has had stellar competition whereas Cadillac has had stellar competition and injuries.

Ronnie obviously has the size you look for in a back. This is something that a lot of the top backs have going for them. Ladainian, Shaun, Larry, Jackson, and even Portis have pretty good size nowadays. But he is faster than all of these backs with the possible exception of Portis. He may not have the vision of an Alexander or the threatening running style of Larry Johnson, but then again maybe he has both. He is a prototype back.

So that gets me to thinking what his possible shortcomings are. And there aren’t many. One is the offensive line in Miami. This is not a fearsome group by any stretch, but they are well coached and should have some cohesiveness. They cut their sacks in half last season and vastly improved the rushing YPC. It’s amazing what top-level coaching can do for a bunch of has-beens and never-weres.

Another possible drawback to Ronnie is the addition of Culpepper as a QB. He’s always been very good around the stripe and I think that will be the case this season. He’ll probably get 4-6 touchdowns near the goal-line. That hurts, but it’s not horrible.

I like Ronnie to plug out about 4.5 per carry this season. He’s got the talent, coach, and opportunity to hit that mark. I figure him for probably 310 carries. He’s a great receiver and I can see C-Pep checking down to him often as Daunte isn’t the best at reading a defense. So I can see about 50 catches there too. Figure 7.0 YPR. As for touchdowns, I like to temper my enthusiasm there so I’ll say 11 total. Although as NYGiant56 mentioned, his schedule does appear to be mighty favorable at this early stage. So to list:

310 carries, 1395 yards

50 catches, 350 yards

11 total Touchdowns

 
I like Ronnie Brown a lot this season. Holding the 6th pick in our redraft spot has me thinking of just snagging Ronnie right there. He brings everything to the table that the top backs have except a history of tons of carries. I have the same issue with Cadillac, but what separates them in my mind is the Ronnie has had stellar competition whereas Cadillac has had stellar competition and injuries.

Ronnie obviously has the size you look for in a back. This is something that a lot of the top backs have going for them. Ladainian, Shaun, Larry, Jackson, and even Portis have pretty good size nowadays. But he is faster than all of these backs with the possible exception of Portis. He may not have the vision of an Alexander or the threatening running style of Larry Johnson, but then again maybe he has both. He is a prototype back.

So that gets me to thinking what his possible shortcomings are. And there aren’t many. One is the offensive line in Miami. This is not a fearsome group by any stretch, but they are well coached and should have some cohesiveness. They cut their sacks in half last season and vastly improved the rushing YPC. It’s amazing what top-level coaching can do for a bunch of has-beens and never-weres.

Another possible drawback to Ronnie is the addition of Culpepper as a QB. He’s always been very good around the stripe and I think that will be the case this season. He’ll probably get 4-6 touchdowns near the goal-line. That hurts, but it’s not horrible.

I like Ronnie to plug out about 4.5 per carry this season. He’s got the talent, coach, and opportunity to hit that mark. I figure him for probably 310 carries. He’s a great receiver and I can see C-Pep checking down to him often as Daunte isn’t the best at reading a defense. So I can see about 50 catches there too. Figure 7.0 YPR. As for touchdowns, I like to temper my enthusiasm there so I’ll say 11 total. Although as NYGiant56 mentioned, his schedule does appear to be mighty favorable at this early stage. So to list:

310 carries, 1395 yards

50 catches, 350 yards

11 total Touchdowns
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do you think they will be giving Culpepper goal line carries after the major injury he took last year? I think they will wait about 8 games before they try that one out
 
I think Culpepper can sprint for the endzone on 2nd and Goal from the 5 on a called pass play pretty well.
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...and fumble, just like he did with the Vikes (when he had 2 good knees). Ronnie Brown is getting the goalline carries. Culpepper might score a rushing TD or 2 this year in the red zone, but I think his days of vulturing TD's are over.

If Mike Tice wasn't such a ********* ******* *****"*******"*******(breath)******-***************** ***********-******************-head, the Vikes would have tried that idiotic play less, and scored more.

I think Pots got closest:

290/1215 (4.2 YPC)

9 RuTD

40/300

1 Rec TD

...but his ceiling is higher.

 
think said:
I think Culpepper can sprint for the endzone on 2nd and Goal from the 5 on a called pass play pretty well.
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...and fumble, just like he did with the Vikes (when he had 2 good knees). Ronnie Brown is getting the goalline carries. Culpepper might score a rushing TD or 2 this year in the red zone, but I think his days of vulturing TD's are over.

If Mike Tice wasn't such a ********* ******* *****"*******"*******(breath)******-***************** ***********-******************-head, the Vikes would have tried that idiotic play less, and scored more.

I think Pots got closest:

290/1215 (4.2 YPC)

9 RuTD

40/300

1 Rec TD

...but his ceiling is higher.
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So if you don't think C-Pep is going to vulture, why do you have Ronnie's touchdown total so low? Please add something to the discussion other than just trying to neutralize other peoples' ideas.
 
Sabertooth said:
So if you don't think C-Pep is going to vulture, why do you have Ronnie's touchdown total so low? Please add something to the discussion other than just trying to neutralize other peoples' ideas.
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I think you mis-read my post. I wasn't attempting to "neutralize" your post. I was attempting to "disagree" with it. As far as adding something to the discussion, I was under the impression that I had, but if I was wrong, let me try again:You're projecting Ronnie Brown to get 11 total TD's, and I said 10. Not a big difference, and given the relatively subjective art of projecting TD's, I think we can deal with it.
srnohav said:
do you think they will be giving Culpepper goal line carries after the major injury he took last year? I think they will wait about 8 games before they try that one out
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I think 8 games is subjective, but I certainly agree with srnohav's point. I think the Dolphins will be just as conservative with their QB rushing the ball this year as they were last (O QB rushing TD's in 2005). But even if they aren't, Culpepper hasn't rushed for
Sabertooth said:
He’ll probably get 4-6 touchdowns near the goal-line.
Click to expand...
4-6 TD's since 2003 (4). That was 3 years and 3 knee ligaments ago. I also believe that the Dolphins will have a player that's not Culpepper or Ronnie Brown score a rushing TD at some point during the season. It probably won't be very often, but the difference between what I'm saying Culpepper might score and what you're saying he might score could really be only 2 (projected) rushing TD's.As far as your contention that 9 TD's is low, I disagree with that as well. Of all 9 RB's that scored more than 9 TD's last year, 2 (Corey Dillon and Stephen Davis) averaged less than 3.5 YPC and had less than 750 yards on the season - not stellar season's in either case regardless of TD's. The other 7 had very good to great (to unbelievable) seasons. Mike Anderson (12 TD's in 2005) cannot be considered a top back this year due to his situation, but the other 6 ( Alexander 27 TD's, Larry Johnson 20, LT 18, E. James 13, Rudi Johnson 12, and Clinton Portis 11) can all be expected to have great seasons this year.Last year Lamont Jordan, Tiki Barber, and Thomas Jones all scored 9 rushing TD's and were each considered to have had very good seasons.Could these 10 RB's be the top 10 in 2006? Possibly. Do I think Ronnie Brown is going to finish in the top 10? Yes.You project about 250 more total yards and 1 more total Td for Ronnie Brown than I do over the course of the season. So you see, I agree with almost everything you said. I just don't agree with your belief that Culpepper will vulture that many TD's. My original post wasn't meant to be "neutralizing", it was merely meant to be part of a debate (or a "discussion").
 
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