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Player Spotlight: Anquan Boldin (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Anquan Boldin, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Anquan Boldin Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs

 
For those interested, heres how Boldin/Fitz did with Warner at QB last year when both were playing(weeks 1-2, 11-15)

Fitz:

Code: 
13	155	14	70	09	104	14	41	18	129	04	23	06	85	1  48	607	4
Boldin:
Code: 
4	62	08	119	08	105	110	115	011	156	19	114	08	134	1  58	805	3
Ill let others draw their own conclusions.
 
For those interested, heres how Boldin/Fitz did with Warner at QB last year when both were playing(weeks 1-2, 11-15)

Fitz:

Code: 
13	155	14	70	09	104	14	41	18	129	04	23	06	85	1  48	607	4
Boldin:
Code: 
4	62	08	119	08	105	110	115	011	156	19	114	08	134	1  58	805	3
Ill let others draw their own conclusions.
Click to expand...
That was last year.
 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
I like these numbers, but the TD total is too low, IMHO. I would say 9-11 tds. Receptions and yardage looks good.
 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
I like these numbers, but the TD total is too low, IMHO. I would say 9-11 tds. Receptions and yardage looks good.
Click to expand...
If he gets 9, how many do you have projected for Fitzgerald and James?
 
IMO Anquan could be the best WR in the NFL this year. It's been a while since Moss dominated for a whole season. Owens is going to have to block more often than he's used to. If Carson can't go, like many, I expect a more run dominated offense from Cincy to start the year so Chad Johnson might lose some stats off last year's total.

Numbers wise, try to predict some improvement upon these numbers Anquan's already put up and you're predicting that he'll have one of the best season's ever:

101-1377-8 TDs

102-1402-7 TDs

Under Green from 1993 til 2000 Cris Carter averaged around 100 catches 1100 yards and 12 TDs

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/CartCr00.htm

Randy Moss' average under green is probably around 85 catches 1300 yards and 13 TDs

http://www.profootballreference.com/players/MossRa00.htm

I'd guess 95 catches 1450 yards 12 TDs

 
For those interested, heres how Boldin/Fitz did with Warner at QB last year when both were playing(weeks 1-2, 11-15)

Fitz:

Code: 
13	155	14	70	09	104	14	41	18	129	04	23	06	85	1  48	607	4
Boldin:
Code: 
4	62	08	119	08	105	110	115	011	156	19	114	08	134	1  58	805	3
Ill let others draw their own conclusions.
Click to expand...
That was last year.
Click to expand...
Care to better explain why we won't see that repeated again this year? Especially considering Boldin wasnt even 100% healthy in weeks 11-15?
 
Care to better explain why we won't see that repeated again this year? Especially considering Boldin wasnt even 100% healthy in weeks 11-15?
Click to expand...
Not to speak for him, but Edge worries me some. I won't change my prediction due to this worry because Robert Smith was never the TD back we all hoped for but IMO he also wasn't as good a receiving back as James is. Edge worries me but I'm just throwing caution to the wind here and predicting greatness(slight improvement) for Anquan

 
Care to better explain why we won't see that repeated again this year?  Especially considering Boldin wasnt even 100% healthy in weeks 11-15?
Click to expand...
Not to speak for him, but Edge worries me some. I won't change my prediction due to this worry because Robert Smith was never the TD back we all hoped for but IMO he also wasn't as good a receiving back as James is. Edge worries me but I'm just throwing caution to the wind here and predicting greatness(slight improvement) for Anquan
Click to expand...
A drop for Boldin I understand. A drop for Boldin while Fitz improves I do not really understand.
 
Care to better explain why we won't see that repeated again this year?  Especially considering Boldin wasnt even 100% healthy in weeks 11-15?
Click to expand...
Not to speak for him, but Edge worries me some. I won't change my prediction due to this worry because Robert Smith was never the TD back we all hoped for but IMO he also wasn't as good a receiving back as James is. Edge worries me but I'm just throwing caution to the wind here and predicting greatness(slight improvement) for Anquan
Click to expand...
A drop for Boldin I understand. A drop for Boldin while Fitz improves I do not really understand.
Click to expand...
Do their respective projections need to move in lock step with one another? Some people see a much higher ceiling for Fitzgerald. Apparently, you're not one of them. It's a good thing that opinions differ.
 
I think it's safe to say that Fitz is Denny's favorite, ever since he was the ball boy back in Minnesota. But Boldin demonstrated a shocking level of power, speed, and toughness last year, especially after the catch. I just don't see Fitz overtaking him. IMO, Boldin demonstrated that he is the #1 when healthy, although long term, Fitz' youth and talent make him valuable.

I project:

Boldin: 99:1250/9

Fitz: 89/1100/8

And just for fun:

Edge runs for 1150 and 10 TDs, catching 42 for 450/2

 
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Care to better explain why we won't see that repeated again this year?  Especially considering Boldin wasnt even 100% healthy in weeks 11-15?
Click to expand...
Not to speak for him, but Edge worries me some. I won't change my prediction due to this worry because Robert Smith was never the TD back we all hoped for but IMO he also wasn't as good a receiving back as James is. Edge worries me but I'm just throwing caution to the wind here and predicting greatness(slight improvement) for Anquan
Click to expand...
A drop for Boldin I understand. A drop for Boldin while Fitz improves I do not really understand.
Click to expand...
Do their respective projections need to move in lock step with one another? Some people see a much higher ceiling for Fitzgerald. Apparently, you're not one of them. It's a good thing that opinions differ.
Click to expand...
:confused: All Im asking is for ANY justification of your numbers.

No need to get offended about it.

 
Quick question for people projecting Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James to each get around 9-11 TD's:

Last year Arizona scored 23 offensive touchdowns. To realistically project each of those 3 players to have 10 TD's, Arizona's offense will have to score at least 35 offensive TD's this year, which means they'll have to increase their TD output by about 50%.

What's the reason for the spike in offensive TDs? Rackers' field goal attempts last year were high (42), but not overwhelmingly so, so they could come down from 42 to 30 or so (which is around the league average). But that still won't account for the entire difference. So it looks like you'd need to project 3 things if you want to project Arizona's big 3 at 10 TD each:

1) James is a considerably better goal-line runner than any of Arizona's backs were last year.

2) Rackers' attempts drop sharply (by about 30%).

3) The Cardinals' offense is considerably better.

It's not nuts to project that all 3 things happen, of course. But I don't see enough offseason improvement to justify that much confidence, so I'm not that confident that any of them will end up w/ double-digit TDs.

My projections for Boldin - 105 rec., 1,450 yards - 7 TDs.

Even if the Cards throw considerably less (dropping from 42 to 35 attempts per game), and Boldin loses 2 targets per game, his targets still only drop from 171 last year to 163 in 2006. I'm anticipating a slight dropoff in targets per game, similar reception and YPR numbers, and similar TD numbers.

 
Quick question for people  projecting Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James to each get around 9-11 TD's:

Last year Arizona scored 23 offensive touchdowns. To realistically project each of those 3 players to have 10 TD's, Arizona's offense will have to score at least 35 offensive TD's this year, which means they'll have to increase their TD output by about 50%.

What's the reason for the spike in offensive TDs? Rackers' field goal attempts last year were high (42), but not overwhelmingly so, so they could come down from 42 to 30 or so (which is around the league average). But that still won't account for the entire difference. So it looks like you'd need to project 3 things if you want to project Arizona's big 3 at 10 TD each:

1) James is a considerably better goal-line runner than any of Arizona's backs were last year.

2) Rackers' attempts drop sharply (by about 30%).

3) The Cardinals' offense is considerably better.

It's not nuts to project that all 3 things happen, of course. But I don't see enough offseason improvement to justify that much confidence, so I'm not that confident that any of them will end up w/ double-digit TDs.

My projections for Boldin - 105 rec., 1,450 yards - 7 TDs.

Even if the Cards throw considerably less (dropping from 42 to 35 attempts per game), and Boldin loses 2 targets per game, his targets still only drop from 171 last year to 163 in 2006. I'm anticipating a slight dropoff in targets per game, similar reception and YPR numbers, and similar TD numbers.
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Rackers FGs weren't overwhelmingly high? 42 is one of the highest totals ever for an NFL kicker.Rackers made 40 FGs last year at a 95% rate, while in 2004, he only had 22 FGs made at a 75% rate.

Last year was a HUGE anomoly statistically for any kicker, but especially for a Rackers-led Cardinals offense.

 
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anquan is one of the most underrated players in the league. he's in a small group of WRs who could emerge as the #1 fantasy receiver. the man is a physical monster, i had the pleasure of watching several of boldins games last year. he embarasses people out there, no one is better after the catch than him (not even TO). fitz may take a few touchdowns away from him but nonetheless:

115rec 1520yds 9tds

superstar

 
For those interested, heres how Boldin/Fitz did with Warner at QB last year when both were playing(weeks 1-2, 11-15)

Fitz:

Code: 
13	155	14	70	09	104	14	41	18	129	04	23	06	85	1  48	607	4
Boldin:
Code: 
4	62	08	119	08	105	110	115	011	156	19	114	08	134	1  58	805	3
Ill let others draw their own conclusions.
Click to expand...
That was last year.
Click to expand...
yes it was. and last year provides a nice insight into this year. boldin played two less games than fitz and put up practically the same numbers.
 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
I like these numbers, but the TD total is too low, IMHO. I would say 9-11 tds. Receptions and yardage looks good.
Click to expand...
If he gets 9, how many do you have projected for Fitzgerald and James?
Click to expand...
Hey Rad. I saw your projections for Fitz in the other thread. If I recall, you had him at 14tds? If so, I think thats a little too high. Again, I see these two both in that same area of 1200yds and 9-11 tds. They both are excellent WRs and either one can be the WR1 on a given week. I also agree with Phlash's numbers. As for the question of whether all three (Boldin, Fitz, and Edge) can score 30tds, I think its possible. Look at a couple of things.1) Defense hasn't improved enough to count on them to hold the line. As a result, the offense is going to have to score at least as much as last year.

2) DGreen's offense is still being developed. This year they added a quality RB that they didn't have last year. Granted, Edge may take some of the TDs away from the WRs, but I don't see Edge getting more than 8-9 TDs this season.

3) Another year of the system under Warner and the WRs' belts.

In closing, I like Arizona's chances for an increased output this year. I think Edge gets around 1200 yds and 9tds. Boldin and Fitz land 1200 and 9-11 tds each. Of course, I could be drinking red koolaid today as well.

 
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I was under the impression Boldin was a 20 to 20 WR, with Fitz getting more of the looks in the red-zone... anybody with more info on this? If that's the case, I can only imagine Fitz's TD looks will decrease with Edge as another red-zone weapon. How do you guys see Edge's addition affecting Boldin?

 
Quick question for people  projecting Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James to each get around 9-11 TD's:

Last year Arizona scored 23 offensive touchdowns. To realistically project each of those 3 players to have 10 TD's, Arizona's offense will have to score at least 35 offensive TD's this year, which means they'll have to increase their TD output by about 50%.

What's the reason for the spike in offensive TDs? Rackers' field goal attempts last year were high (42), but not overwhelmingly so, so they could come down from 42 to 30 or so (which is around the league average). But that still won't account for the entire difference. So it looks like you'd need to project 3 things if you want to project Arizona's big 3 at 10 TD each:

1) James is a considerably better goal-line runner than any of Arizona's backs were last year.

2) Rackers' attempts drop sharply (by about 30%).

3) The Cardinals' offense is considerably better.

It's not nuts to project that all 3 things happen, of course. But I don't see enough offseason improvement to justify that much confidence, so I'm not that confident that any of them will end up w/ double-digit TDs.

My projections for Boldin - 105 rec., 1,450 yards - 7 TDs.

Even if the Cards throw considerably less (dropping from 42 to 35 attempts per game), and Boldin loses 2 targets per game, his targets still only drop from 171 last year to 163 in 2006. I'm anticipating a slight dropoff in targets per game, similar reception and YPR numbers, and similar TD numbers.
Click to expand...
Rackers FGs weren't overwhelmingly high? 42 is one of the highest totals ever for an NFL kicker.Rackers made 40 FGs last year at a 95% rate, while in 2004, he only had 22 FGs made at a 75% rate.

Last year was a HUGE anomoly statistically for any kicker, but especially for a Rackers-led Cardinals offense.
Click to expand...
Both Rackers and Feely had 42 attempts last year. In 2004, Elam led the league w/ 34 attempts. In 2003, Wilkins had 42. In 2002, Feely had 40. In 2001, Kris Brown had 44. So I wouldn't call it an anomaly. His made FGs certainly were but the attempts look pretty average for league-leading kickers.I haven't looked farther back than 2001, but 42 doesn't seem outrageous. About 40 attempts usually leads the league. 35 gets you into the top 5. 30 is about average.

The point is, Rackers will have to drop from being the best kicker in the league to being an average kicker. It's not all that unlikely that it will happen. But it's one of 3 things that have to happen if you're projecting all 3 of those guys to get ~10 TDs.

 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
The Cards finished 8th in total defensive yards last season despite losing 5 defensive players for the season including Bert Berry, Antrel Rolle and the starting MLB.The big weakness is the offensive line.

 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
I like these numbers, but the TD total is too low, IMHO. I would say 9-11 tds. Receptions and yardage looks good.
Click to expand...
If he gets 9, how many do you have projected for Fitzgerald and James?
Click to expand...
Hey Rad. I saw your projections for Fitz in the other thread. If I recall, you had him at 14tds? If so, I think thats a little too high. Again, I see these two both in that same area of 1200yds and 9-11 tds. They both are excellent WRs and either one can be the WR1 on a given week. I also agree with Phlash's numbers. As for the question of whether all three (Boldin, Fitz, and Edge) can score 30tds, I think its possible. Look at a couple of things.1) Defense hasn't improved enough to count on them to hold the line. As a result, the offense is going to have to score at least as much as last year.

2) DGreen's offense is still being developed. This year they added a quality RB that they didn't have last year. Granted, Edge may take some of the TDs away from the WRs, but I don't see Edge getting more than 8-9 TDs this season.

3) Another year of the system under Warner and the WRs' belts.

In closing, I like Arizona's chances for an increased output this year. I think Edge gets around 1200 yds and 9tds. Boldin and Fitz land 1200 and 9-11 tds each. Of course, I could be drinking red koolaid today as well.
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No, I had him for 11. Big difference. I see Fitz getting about twice as many TDs as Boldin. I see Boldin for 5-6 with Fitz getting 10-11. I think Boldin and Fitzgerald are too closely ranked going into next year but I still would love to have Boldin as my WR2. The problem is he's getting drafted as a WR1.
 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
Click to expand...
I like these numbers, but the TD total is too low, IMHO. I would say 9-11 tds. Receptions and yardage looks good.
Click to expand...
If he gets 9, how many do you have projected for Fitzgerald and James?
Click to expand...
Hey Rad. I saw your projections for Fitz in the other thread. If I recall, you had him at 14tds? If so, I think thats a little too high. Again, I see these two both in that same area of 1200yds and 9-11 tds. They both are excellent WRs and either one can be the WR1 on a given week. I also agree with Phlash's numbers. As for the question of whether all three (Boldin, Fitz, and Edge) can score 30tds, I think its possible. Look at a couple of things.1) Defense hasn't improved enough to count on them to hold the line. As a result, the offense is going to have to score at least as much as last year.

2) DGreen's offense is still being developed. This year they added a quality RB that they didn't have last year. Granted, Edge may take some of the TDs away from the WRs, but I don't see Edge getting more than 8-9 TDs this season.

3) Another year of the system under Warner and the WRs' belts.

In closing, I like Arizona's chances for an increased output this year. I think Edge gets around 1200 yds and 9tds. Boldin and Fitz land 1200 and 9-11 tds each. Of course, I could be drinking red koolaid today as well.
Click to expand...
No, I had him for 11. Big difference. I see Fitz getting about twice as many TDs as Boldin. I see Boldin for 5-6 with Fitz getting 10-11. I think Boldin and Fitzgerald are too closely ranked going into next year but I still would love to have Boldin as my WR2. The problem is he's getting drafted as a WR1.
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Boldin as your WR2?12 man league, PPR. Name 12 WRs better then Boldin. He caught 100 balls in his rookie year. 50 in 1/2 a year when he was hurt. Then 100 again. In PPR Boldin is a top 5 WR. Moss/TO MIGHT catch 80 balls. Harrison might sniff 85.

In non-prr, okay he slips down to the 7-9 range. But Boldin is a solid WR1. He's an AMAZING WR2.

The knock is the TD totals. In PPR that's balanced out. I'm not so sure Edge will hurt Boldin/Fitz TD numbers. And might actually help. The main problem was, teams would dare Zona to run. They'd keep dropping 8. As you get closer to the RZ, it was extremely difficult to pass. Drive stalls, Rackers kicks the FG.

Now with Edge, you won't be dropping 8 in the RZ. Imagine if you have to keep 7 in the box? Fitz/Boldin will eat you up. Neither one of them saw single coverage much last year. Teams would play the cover 2, and drop at least one LB back in coverage. If Zona gets ANY sort of run game, Boldin/Fitz are going to be running wild.

I just don't see how you can project Boldin to catch what 70 balls? If anyone, it will be Fitz who's catches drop. It's very possible Boldin is the better WR. Green favors Fitz heavily in the RZ. With a new coach, Fitz TDs would drop in half.

Anyway, Boldin is a solid WR1.

 
Boldin as your WR2?
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Granted he would be a terrific WR2. But, in my opinion Chad Johnson, Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, and Marvin Harrison are all clear cuts ahead of him. He's in the next grouping (although I will agree he nears the top of that list) with Hines Ward, Darrell Jackson, Chris Chambers, Reggie Wayne, and Santana Moss.
 
It's really hard to imagine the Cardinals continuing to pass that often with Edgerrin James on board. I also think Fitzgerald will start to emerge as the true number one on this team. Still, Arizona hasn't done much to improve their defense and they will still air it out frequently.

88 receptions, 1240 receiving yards, 5 TDs
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I think the #8 wr last year beat these #'sActually Boldin was #8 last year (in non-ppr leagues) while missing 2 games

and his #'s were 102 1398 and 7 td's also 45 yards rushing.

You say in a later post that you think Bold is the next best wr after Moss, Holt, C. Johnson, Smith, Owens Harrison and Fitz. So that would put him at #8, right? So we're projecting him to play a whole year and put up lesser #'s (150 yards less and 2 td's less.) I would like to know how you think this is possible. I doubt those #'s you project him at will get him a sniff of the top ten.

 
Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will both finish at:

90 Receptions

1400 Receiving Yards

8 Receiving TD's

Incidentally 40% of Fitzgerald's TD were inside the 10 as Arizona took advantage of his size; I do believe that James will vulture some of those Red Zone looks and TD's.

I do not think that folks are not giving Boldin enough credit here. He had the same stats as Fitzgerald in 2 less games. He was their "go to" receiver when they needed a First Down. All but one of his TD's was 20 yards or greater; Fitzgerald had only 4 TD's of 20 yards or greater.

James will not hurt either WR's output; he will help to sustain more drives. In the process both Boldin and Fitzgerald will get better YPC and then more opportunity to score consistently.

 
Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald will both finish at:

90 Receptions

1400 Receiving Yards

8 Receiving TD's

Incidentally 40% of Fitzgerald's TD were inside the 10 as Arizona took advantage of his size; I do believe that James will vulture some of those Red Zone looks and TD's.

I do not think that folks are not giving Boldin enough credit here. He had the same stats as Fitzgerald in 2 less games. He was their "go to" receiver when they needed a First Down. All but one of his TD's was 20 yards or greater; Fitzgerald had only 4 TD's of 20 yards or greater.

James will not hurt either WR's output; he will help to sustain more drives. In the process both Boldin and Fitzgerald will get better YPC and then more opportunity to score consistently.
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Good assessment.Last year, Arizona was average (18th) in points scored. But their 26 TDs ranked them 25th with the average team's TDs at around 35/game. Of those TDs, only 2 were rushing; 21 were receiving and 3 via interceptions. Offsetting their inability to punch in TDs, Arizona led the league in FGs.

So with Edge and TE target Pope, I expect Arizona to convert more TDs and have less FGs. I don't believe that effect will drain too much from Boldin and Fitz. Give Edge and Pope/TEs another ten TDs, take that away from FGs, and Arizona is then back in balance, statistically.

 
Wow...some really low projections on Boldin!

Some stats:

Boldin games 1-8: 11.6 PPG (7 games)

Boldin games 9-16: 15.1 PPG :shock: (7 games)

Season: 13.4 PPG (3rd best among WR's, adjusted for games missed)

Fitzgerald games 1-8: 12.6 PPG

Fitzgerald games 9-16: 13.1 PPG

Season: 12.9 PPG

Conservative estimate for Boldin: 12.8 PPG which equates to 108 receptions, 1460 yards receiving, 11 rushes, 40 yards rushing, and 9 receiving TDs.

(.1 point per yard, 6 pts per TD)

Not sure about Fitzgerald yet...

 
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I like Boldin to continue to see more targets than Fitzgerald this season with a healthy Warner. If Warner is injured, there should certainly be a drop-off in production, but I wouldn't imagine it would be enough to drop him from top 10 WR (look what he put up in 'Zona before Warner arrived).

Edge will get some carries should they make it to the RZ, but I feel that this takes away from Fitz more than Boldin as he is targeted more in the RZ than Boldin is.

95-1337-8

 
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What worries me most about spending an early pick on Boldin, Fitzgerald or Edge is the health of Kurt Warner. The Cards had McCown to replace him last year and he did a respectable job. Leinart should be bigtime someday but not yet. I just don't see Warner staying upright for 16 games.

Boldin (in 10 Warner games)

60 catches for 820 yards 5 TD

Boldin (in 6 Leinart games)

24 catches for 280 yards 2 TD

Overall: 84 catches for 1100 yards, 7 TD

 
What worries me most about spending an early pick on Boldin, Fitzgerald or Edge is the health of Kurt Warner. The Cards had McCown to replace him last year and he did a respectable job. Leinart should be bigtime someday but not yet. I just don't see Warner staying upright for 16 games.

Boldin (in 10 Warner games)

60 catches for 820 yards 5 TD

Boldin (in 6 Leinart games)

24 catches for 280 yards 2 TD

Overall: 84 catches for 1100 yards, 7 TD
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I agree with this. Id love to have either Boldin or Fitz, but where they will be drafted will probably force me to pass, just because when (not if) Warner gets hurt the Cards will have a rookie QB at the helm...Im in the process of hammering out my projections and I havent done the Cardinals yet, so I cant post my numbers yet.....but they will be lower than last year for sure.

 
Conservative estimate for Boldin: 12.8 PPG which equates to 108 receptions, 1460 yards receiving, 11 rushes, 40 yards rushing, and 9 receiving TDs.

(.1 point per yard, 6 pts per TD)

Not sure about Fitzgerald yet...
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:eek: With the addition of edge Arizona won't pass 600 times like they did last year. Plus he and Pope will take away receptions that in the past have gone to the wrs In addition the odds are against boldin playing an entire season.I'll be nice and say he averages 6 catches per game for 14 games. I'll give him a 13.5 ypc and what you get is 84 receptions for 1,134 yards and 7 TDs.

 
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As I said in talk about Fitzgerald . . .

IMO, Edge will take away 100 passing attempts from last year's insane total of 670 passing attempts. As I see it for both Boldin and Fitz, people should be looking for their numbers to drop not go up. Arizona's complete lack of a running game directly played into passing the ball as much as they did. In a more balanced offense, I don't see Boldin and Fitz at 100/1400/10.

 
As I said in talk about Fitzgerald . . .

IMO, Edge will take away 100 passing attempts from last year's insane total of 670 passing attempts. As I see it for both Boldin and Fitz, people should be looking for their numbers to drop not go up. Arizona's complete lack of a running game directly played into passing the ball as much as they did. In a more balanced offense, I don't see Boldin and Fitz at 100/1400/10.
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I agree...fitz is my #1 wr on my dynasty team but I see him getting about 1,150 yards or so and I see boldin doing about the same.
 
It reminds me a little of INdy last year and projections for Reggie Wayne and Stockley, everybody thought their numbers would be the same of go up. Like yudkin said, the passes have to drop off with the Edge addition. what I am trying to figure out is who will be most effected. Wayne and Harrison had about the same catches in 2005 but Harrison had all the td's last year. what happens in Arizona?

when warner is QB last year (games 1-3, 11-15 dropped 9,10 bolding was injured)

Boldin

101 targets 64/893/3

fitz

73 targets 51/648/4

looks like Boldin might have the upside here, since he is being drafted later than fitz since fitz is the magical third year WR, you might find some good value

 
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Quick question for people projecting Boldin, Fitzgerald, and James to each get around 9-11 TD's:

Last year Arizona scored 23 offensive touchdowns. To realistically project each of those 3 players to have 10 TD's, Arizona's offense will have to score at least 35 offensive TD's this year, which means they'll have to increase their TD output by about 50%.

What's the reason for the spike in offensive TDs? Rackers' field goal attempts last year were high (42), but not overwhelmingly so, so they could come down from 42 to 30 or so (which is around the league average). But that still won't account for the entire difference. So it looks like you'd need to project 3 things if you want to project Arizona's big 3 at 10 TD each:

1) James is a considerably better goal-line runner than any of Arizona's backs were last year.

2) Rackers' attempts drop sharply (by about 30%).

3) The Cardinals' offense is considerably better.

It's not nuts to project that all 3 things happen, of course. But I don't see enough offseason improvement to justify that much confidence, so I'm not that confident that any of them will end up w/ double-digit TDs.

My projections for Boldin - 105 rec., 1,450 yards - 7 TDs.

Even if the Cards throw considerably less (dropping from 42 to 35 attempts per game), and Boldin loses 2 targets per game, his targets still only drop from 171 last year to 163 in 2006. I'm anticipating a slight dropoff in targets per game, similar reception and YPR numbers, and similar TD numbers.
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:goodposting: :thumbup: My only disent is that he puts up a few more catches: 110, the same yards: 1450, but quite a few more TD's: 12

I think Boldin has some of the best hands in the leauge, and his routes are nearly perfect.

 
The Cardinals attempted 715 passes when you include times sacked.

By comparison, they rushed the ball only 360 times. In addition, no Cardinal ran for more than 59 yards in a single game.

So the unbelievable stats both Boldin and Fitzgerald produced were in effect a byproduct of a team that simply had no other option in moving the ball.

While many have said that Edgerrin James shouldn't cut into the production of Boldin that much, also realize that the Cardinals threw for over 4700 yards last year.

One more thing to consider - guess who led the NFL in offensive plays in 2005. If you guessed the Arizona Cardinals with 1075, you are correct.

So let's assume that by virtue of trying to become a more balanced offense the Cardinals move towards the 45/55 run:pass ratio that is the league average. Let's also figure that the Cardinals while staying in the top 10 in # of offensive plays see their play total drop to 1025 - that would mean that the Cardinals would have called 564 pass plays.

Let's be generous and say Warner only gets sacked 34 times dropping the formal number of Cardinals pass attempts to 530. This total represents 79% of their 2005 pass attempt total.

So really, if the Cardinals are serious about becoming a winner by establishing the run and slowing the game down a bit - these factors mentioned above alone suggest that Boldin won't catch but 80 passes.

I like Boldin, but the fact is the Cardinals are going to have to remake the dynamic of their offense in order to contend and their commitment to bringing in a top tier RB signals that they are ready to do it.

Prediction:

79 receptions, 1089 yards, 5 TD's - 7 rushes 51 yards 1 TD

 
The Cardinals attempted 715 passes when you include times sacked.

By comparison, they rushed the ball only 360 times. In addition, no Cardinal ran for more than 59 yards in a single game.

So the unbelievable stats both Boldin and Fitzgerald produced were in effect a byproduct of a team that simply had no other option in moving the ball.

While many have said that Edgerrin James shouldn't cut into the production of Boldin that much, also realize that the Cardinals threw for over 4700 yards last year.

One more thing to consider - guess who led the NFL in offensive plays in 2005. If you guessed the Arizona Cardinals with 1075, you are correct.

So let's assume that by virtue of trying to become a more balanced offense the Cardinals move towards the 45/55 run:pass ratio that is the league average. Let's also figure that the Cardinals while staying in the top 10 in # of offensive plays see their play total drop to 1025 - that would mean that the Cardinals would have called 564 pass plays.

Let's be generous and say Warner only gets sacked 34 times dropping the formal number of Cardinals pass attempts to 530. This total represents 79% of their 2005 pass attempt total.

So really, if the Cardinals are serious about becoming a winner by establishing the run and slowing the game down a bit - these factors mentioned above alone suggest that Boldin won't catch but 80 passes.

I like Boldin, but the fact is the Cardinals are going to have to remake the dynamic of their offense in order to contend and their commitment to bringing in a top tier RB signals that they are ready to do it.

Prediction:

79 receptions, 1089 yards, 5 TD's - 7 rushes 51 yards 1 TD
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:goodposting: is anyone aware that Arizona had the highest run/pass ratio in the past 10 years? Assuming that the addition of EJ will not change this ratio is ludicrous - these passing numbers HAVE to come back to earth. I see Boldin with 83/1071/7.
 
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