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Player Spotlight: SF Receiver Corps (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Antonio Bryant, Arnaz Battle & Company, WRs, San Francisco 49ers

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
I believe this is the first time we have a "community" player thread.

Reminds me of the illegal who took a urine sample to the testing lab.

He reports back: No drugs in the sample, not for me, or Carlos, or Manuel, or Manolo, or Pedro, or Conchita, or Perla, or Constanza or Concepcion.

 
I think both Bryant and Battle are still good values given their ADP ...

Bryant will be top 25 and Battle will be top 45 ...

Antonio Bryant (75/1010/7)

Arnaz Battle (60/850/6)

 
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I think both Bryant and Battle are still good values given their ADP ...

Bryant will be top 25 and Battle will be top 45 ...

Antonio Bryant (75/1010/7)

Arnaz Battle (60/850/6)
Click to expand...
:excited: :rolleyes:
 
I think both Bryant and Battle are still good values given their ADP ...

Bryant will be top 25 and Battle will be top 45 ...

Antonio Bryant (75/1010/7)

Arnaz Battle (60/850/6)
Click to expand...
:excited: :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I can see the yardage and catches for Bryant, maybe for Battle but they TD are WAYYYYYYYYYY to high, and I love the NinersBryant 70/1000/4

Battle 55/750/4

 
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I think both Bryant and Battle are still good values given their ADP ...

Bryant will be top 25 and Battle will be top 45 ...

Antonio Bryant (75/1010/7)

Arnaz Battle (60/850/6)
Click to expand...
:excited: :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I can see the yardage and catches for Bryant, maybe for Battle but they TD are WAYYYYYYYYYY to high, and I love the NinersBryant 70/1000/4

Battle 55/750/4
Click to expand...
Battle had three TDs last year starting 8 games and fighting his way through injuries. With double the starts/playing time in 2006 I dont see why 6 TDs is out of the question, particularly as Smith develops and the offense starts to move a bit ...The opposite WR, Brandon Lloyd, had 5 TDs. Again, I see Bryant as a huge upgrade.

I just dont see how 7 and 6 is an unreasonable estimate.

We will see ...

 
Bryant is the only one worth even considering.

Even still.....

65

700

5

:X :X :X

 
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Bryant

72 receptions 920 yds with 6 TD

I see him as a potential #3 WR in PPR leagues. There is bound to be plenty of garbage time for some cheap stats.

Don't know anything about Battle & can't wager a guess here. He shouldn't be more than a WW pickup anyhow. If he explodes, someone will snatch him up.

 
I think both Bryant and Battle are still good values given their ADP ...

Bryant will be top 25 and Battle will be top 45 ...

Antonio Bryant (75/1010/7)

Arnaz Battle (60/850/6)
Click to expand...
:excited: :rolleyes:
Click to expand...
I can see the yardage and catches for Bryant, maybe for Battle but they TD are WAYYYYYYYYYY to high, and I love the NinersBryant 70/1000/4

Battle 55/750/4
Click to expand...
Battle had three TDs last year starting 8 games and fighting his way through injuries. With double the starts/playing time in 2006 I dont see why 6 TDs is out of the question, particularly as Smith develops and the offense starts to move a bit ...The opposite WR, Brandon Lloyd, had 5 TDs. Again, I see Bryant as a huge upgrade.

I just dont see how 7 and 6 is an unreasonable estimate.

We will see ...
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I think that for 2 reasons:1) Alex Smith only threw one TD pass in 7 games. I obviously think he will be better than that but at least 13 WR touchdowns seems like a lot to me.

2) More overall balance on the offense. Last year the Niners only had Llyod and Battle to throw to and then only Llyod. This year they get Davis and add Eric Johnson who figures to be in the fold in the passing game and I see the running game as strong. I think you see an overall increase.

Maybe unreasonable is a bad word but unlikely.

 
I'm a big Arnaz Battle fan but he usually goes even higher than I have him pegged. I think the SF offense is probably another year away if Alex Smith is going to be the guy there. I'd say the SF receiver corps are better dynasty propects than '06 redraft prospects.

 
I think the Bryant numbers are too high for a WR who has questionable hands at best,not to mention the team switch and the offense he is now in.

I think Battle leads the team in receptions with Bryant leading the team in yards and TDs.

 
I think the Bryant numbers are too high for a WR who has questionable hands at best,not to mention the team switch and the offense he is now in.

I think Battle leads the team in receptions with Bryant leading the team in yards and TDs.
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In PPR reception leagues, I think that puts them both on equal footing, you can get Battle for alot less. It will be interesting to see regardless.
 
Jugding by what Norv Turner did with Lamont Jordan in Oakland last year, either Gore or Barlow is going to lead this team in receptions in 2006..

I'd put either one of them down for between 60 & 70 catches...this offense has no dependable WR who is considered a #1 WR on the team.They are all #2's or worse, imo..

Barlow is my favorite to be the focal point of the offense, but only because I don't see Gore staying healthy he never has shown the ability to do so..

If you are seriously looking for a WR on the Niners, you probably shouldn't be involved in FF anymore, time to take up another hobby.. :lmao:

battle- 50-600-4

bryant 60-720-5

Barlow OR Gore 68-560-5

the reason I say Barlow or Gore is going to lead the team in receptions is that

Norv Turner doesn't use RBBC and usually runs his offense thru only 1 RB , and short dumpoffs to a RB are a young QB's best friend.

if you can use a RB as a WR in your league, either guy is a super pickup! if not, look elsewhere..Alex Smith still needs to grow into the position...

 
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If you are seriously looking for a WR on the Niners, you probably shouldn't be involved in FF anymore, time to take up another hobby.. :lmao:

battle- 50-600-4

bryant 60-720-5

Barlow OR Gore 68-560-5
Click to expand...
I don't think the WR's in San Fran are an ideal target for a FF team, but I'm sure most FF'ers certainly see value there. If you can get a "#1" WR on any team late in a draft that represents great value then if you are smart, you take him no matter what the situation. The fact that most passing plays are designed for that #1 WR, regardless of how conservative that offense is, makes it a good decision if the value is there. Did I mention value?
 
Smith and Bryant are working together extensively this off season, and I think that will be reflected in the season.

I look for Bryant to be Smith's safety blanket, and the first receiver he looks for all season long. These guys will be on the same page...

Young QB's love to zero in on a receiver...and for Smith...Bryant will be this guy. I am expect big things from Bryant this year. As stated above the TD's will be down but I think Bryant can be a good value in PPR leagues.

Bryant 75 recptions for 1,100 yards 5 touchdowns

 
I think the Bryant numbers are too high for a WR who has questionable hands at best,not to mention the team switch and the offense he is now in.

I think Battle leads the team in receptions with Bryant leading the team in yards and TDs.
Click to expand...
Finally someone who doesn't predict that Battle will be in the stands selling Cold Beer by mid-season. Seriously guys, the anti-Battle sentiment is more appropriate for a peace rally (yes, bad joke). When healthy last year, Battle looked very good and very consistent, both in pre-season and regular season. I just can't predict such dismal numbers for a guy who has already looked solid on an improving team.

Here are Battles 1st three games of last year, plus the only other game where he was healthy and saw significant action... (otherwise he was recovering from injury and was hampered fairly significantly):

09/11 STL 5/59/1

09/18 @PHI 4/44/0

09/25 DAL 6/68/1

11/27 TEN 7/75/1

TOTAL: 22/246/3

Taken over a 16 game schedule: 88/984/12

This season, Smith will be 1 year farther along, Battle will have had an offseason to recover and work with the young QB, and Davis will draw much defensive attention away from the WRs... so I believe the above projection could be seen as a high end possibility for Battle's stats this year. 78/800/8 is probably more possible... which means that Battle is officially a great Buy-Low. :thumbup:

 
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People are way too high on Niner wideouts this year. Remember, Alex Smith only had 1 TD last year. While I think Smith is going to improve in his 2nd season. Smith's upside is around 3200 yards passing and 15 TDs. That really doesn't leave much value to go around. If you look at past Norv Turner offenses, you can expect the RBs and TEs to get an upswing in receptions. My prediction is:

Vernon Davis 63 recs 905 yards 7 tds (he'll line up as a WR)

Antonio Bryant 50 recs 850 yards 4 tds (top WR, but limited upside)

Arnaz Battle 35 recs 540 yards 2 tds (second fiddle to Bryant, also an injury risk)

Eric Johnson 25 recs 250 yards 0 tds (the forgotten man who will be used in 2 TE sets)

Frank Gore 40 recs 450 yards 3 tds (Norv likes his RBs)

Kevan Barlow 20 recs 200 yards 0 tds (Assuming Gore doesn't last the whole season)

Add those numbers up and that puts Alex Smith right around where he's supposed to be.

 
People are way too high on Niner wideouts this year.  Remember, Alex Smith only had 1 TD last year.  While I think Smith is going to improve in his 2nd season.  Smith's upside is around 3200 yards passing and 15 TDs.  That really doesn't leave much value to go around.  If you look at past Norv Turner offenses, you can expect the RBs and TEs to get an upswing in receptions.  My prediction is:

Vernon Davis 63 recs 905 yards 7 tds (he'll line up as a WR)

Antonio Bryant 50 recs 850 yards 4 tds (top WR, but limited upside)

Arnaz Battle 35 recs 540 yards 2 tds (second fiddle to Bryant, also an injury risk)

Eric Johnson 25 recs 250 yards 0 tds (the forgotten man who will be used in 2 TE sets)

Frank Gore 40 recs 450 yards 3 tds (Norv likes his RBs)

Kevan Barlow 20 recs 200 yards 0 tds (Assuming Gore doesn't last the whole season)

Add those numbers up and that puts Alex Smith right around where he's supposed to be.
Click to expand...
:wall: Please explain how Battle, who played in barely half of last season's games with a rookie QB and still came up with 32 grabs, only comes up with 35 grabs in your prognosis? Do you expect Smith to drop kick him the ball instead of passing it? Maybe Smith will simply shove the ball down his own pants and try to leap into his Battle's arms? Maybe he passes Battle his helmit instead of the football?

I'm just lost. :whoosh:

 
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:wall: Please explain how Battle, who played in barely half of last season's games with a rookie QB and still came up with 32 grabs, only comes up with 35 grabs in your prognosis?

Do you expect Smith to drop kick him the ball instead of passing it? Maybe Smith will simply shove the ball down his own pants and try to leap into his Battle's arms? Maybe he passes Battle his helmit instead of the football?

I'm just lost. :whoosh:
Click to expand...
Sometimes a player's stats decrease YOY rather than increasing.Battle didn't compete with Bryant or V Davis last year, each of whom is arguably better than Battle and Lloyd. Heck, E Johnson isn't too bad either, and he wasn't around last year.

 
:wall: Please explain how Battle, who played in barely half of last season's games with a rookie QB and still came up with 32 grabs, only comes up with 35 grabs in your prognosis?

Do you expect Smith to drop kick him the ball instead of passing it? Maybe Smith will simply shove the ball down his own pants and try to leap into his Battle's arms? Maybe he passes Battle his helmit instead of the football?

I'm just lost. :whoosh:
Click to expand...
Rev,Lets not forget that of the 32 grabs Battle had in 2005, 15 came in the first three games of the year with Rattay as the QB, not Smith.

Of the 363 yards Battle had in 2005, again 171 of those yards were in the three games with Rattay.

Of Battle's 3 TD's, 2 were in the three games he played with Rattay.

Then look at the start Cody Pickett had where Battle caught 2 passes for 17 yards.

Then the two games Dorsey started where Battle pulled in another 8 passes for 86 yards and his only other TD on the year.

The reality is, Battle & Smith only hooked up 7 times for 89 yards and 0 TD's in 2005.

With the addition of Bryant via FA & V. Davis via the draft + Norv making good use of his RB's in the passing game and the iffy progress of Alex Smith;

I see Bryant with approx 60 receptions @ 13.0 ypc = 780 yards with 6 TD's.

I see Battle with approx 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.

 
:wall: Please explain how Battle, who played in barely half of last season's games with a rookie QB and still came up with 32 grabs, only comes up with 35 grabs in your prognosis? 

Do you expect Smith to drop kick him the ball instead of passing it?  Maybe Smith will simply shove the ball down his own pants and try to leap into his Battle's arms?  Maybe he passes Battle his helmit instead of the football? 

  I'm just lost.  :whoosh:
Click to expand...
Rev,Lets not forget that of the 32 grabs Battle had in 2005, 15 came in the first three games of the year with Rattay as the QB, not Smith.

Of the 363 yards Battle had in 2005, again 171 of those yards were in the three games with Rattay.

Of Battle's 3 TD's, 2 were in the three games he played with Rattay.

Then look at the start Cody Pickett had where Battle caught 2 passes for 17 yards.

Then the two games Dorsey started where Battle pulled in another 8 passes for 86 yards and his only other TD on the year.

The reality is, Battle & Smith only hooked up 7 times for 89 yards and 0 TD's in 2005.

With the addition of Bryant via FA & V. Davis via the draft + Norv making good use of his RB's in the passing game and the iffy progress of Alex Smith;

I see Bryant with approx 60 receptions @ 13.0 ypc = 780 yards with 6 TD's.

I see Battle with approx 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.
Click to expand...
Although I differ slightly on Bryant............ :goodposting:
 


:wall: Please explain how Battle, who played in barely half of last season's games with a rookie QB and still came up with 32 grabs, only comes up with 35 grabs in your prognosis? 

Do you expect Smith to drop kick him the ball instead of passing it?  Maybe Smith will simply shove the ball down his own pants and try to leap into his Battle's arms?  Maybe he passes Battle his helmit instead of the football? 

  

  I'm just lost.   :whoosh:




Click to expand...
Rev,Lets not forget that of the 32 grabs Battle had in 2005, 15 came in the first three games of the year with Rattay as the QB, not Smith.

Of the 363 yards Battle had in 2005, again 171 of those yards were in the three games with Rattay.

Of Battle's 3 TD's, 2 were in the three games he played with Rattay.

Then look at the start Cody Pickett had where Battle caught 2 passes for 17 yards.

Then the two games Dorsey started where Battle pulled in another 8 passes for 86 yards and his only other TD on the year.

The reality is, Battle & Smith only hooked up 7 times for 89 yards and 0 TD's in 2005.

With the addition of Bryant via FA & V. Davis via the draft + Norv making good use of his RB's in the passing game and the iffy progress of Alex Smith;

I see Bryant with approx 60 receptions @ 13.0 ypc = 780 yards with 6 TD's.

I see Battle with approx 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.



Click to expand...
So since Alex Smith did very little in his rookie season (as nearly every quarterback in NFL history has done), we can expect Battle to drastically decline from what he produced last year in 8-games? ...Simply because he caught most of his balls from Dorsey and Rattay? I don't like that logic at all.Right now, in dynasty format, FBG ranks Smith at QB26. He was a high first round NFL pick and is poised to put a rough rookie season behind him as both he and the Niners have improved a fair amount.

Rattay is ranked at QB61 . He was a 7th round draft pick and will be lucky to earn the #3 QB slot in Tampa.

Dorsey is also a 7th round draft pick is is valued at QB64. The FBG comments tell the tale well: "Dorsey’s arm strength is amongst the worst in the NFL at his position. He probably doesn’t have the skills to be a legitimate starting QB, which explains why the former Heisman Trophy winner lasted until the 7th round of the draft the year he came out."

My point is: why would you discount battle because his 8 games of action last year relied largely upon the arms of Rattay and Dorsey, 2 guys I'm fairly sure will be flipping burgers in a year or two? I see the ascension of Smith as a very good thing for all Niners recievers.

I also would argue that a solid TE like Davis will open up alot of space for a the SF WR's. I don't expect that Davis makes Battle into an average fantasy player.

 
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So since Alex Smith did very little in his rookie season (as nearly every quarterback in NFL history has done), we can expect Battle to drastically decline from what he produced last year in 8-games? ...Simply because he caught most of his balls from Dorsey and Rattay? I don't like that logic at all.

Right now, in dynasty format, FBG ranks Smith at QB26. He was a high first round NFL pick and is poised to put a rough rookie season behind him as both he and the Niners have improved a fair amount.
Click to expand...
The reason for the logic is that I have not come across any reports saying Alex Smith has improved from last year, nor am I convinced of any dramatic improvements from the 49er's as a whole. I have read the reports that Dilfer, while saying the PC things of being willing to tutor Smith, is also saying in the same breath, that he is more than ready to step in and take over the QB job.

Also I will never base my judgment of player on where he was drafted. The NFL is littered with high 1st round QB busts.

Even taking into account the usual growing pains for rookie QB's, I was not all impressed with what I saw of Smith.

Now once TC's are in full swing and I start getting some definitive reports of Smith's progress and in the preseason games Smith shows me something, then of course I will adjust my projections for Battle.

But until I read that Smith is improving and see it for myself, I'm not comfortable in projecting anything more for Battle, than 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.

My :2cents: anyway.

 
Even taking into account the usual growing pains for rookie QB's, I was not all impressed with what I saw of Smith.

Now once TC's are in full swing and I start getting some definitive reports of Smith's progress and in the preseason games Smith shows me something, then of course I will adjust my projections for Battle.

But until I read that Smith is improving and see it for myself, I'm not comfortable in projecting anything more for Battle, than 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.

My :2cents: anyway.
Click to expand...
Really though, who could expect more from a rookie on that bad of a team? I doubt that the 2nd-year Smith will be so bad that a healthy Battle can only match the production that he had in 2005, a year in which he played only about 8 games (all of which were with iffy QB's). I also would argue that we can generally expect a 2nd year QB to fare far better than he did as a rookie. He's had 1 year to learn the ropes in the league, and a full offseason to prepare with his teammates. Also, he's got a heck of alot more receiving talent around him this year.

For the record, here are the 1st-year stats of a few notable QB's. Sure, you can find guys like Payton Manning, who came out firing in year 1, but that's rare:

G GS Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Rate

Carson Palmer: 2003 Bengals 0 0 0 0 --- 0 --- 0 0 0 0/0 0 0 ---

Mike Vick: 2001 Falcons 8 2 113 50 44.2 785 6.95 52 2 3 62.7

Steve McNair: 1995 Oilers 4 2 80 41 51.3 569 7.11 53 3 1 81.7

Matt Hasselbeck: 1999 Packers 16 0 10 3 30.0 41 4.10 19 1 0 77.5

Tom Brady: 2000 Patriots 1 0 3 1 33.3 6 2.00 6 0 0 42.4

Brett Favre: 1991 Falcons 2 0 4 0 0.0 0 0.00 0 0 2 0.0

NOW, look at Smith's numbers:

Alex Smith: 2005 49ers 7 165 84 50.9 875 5.30 47 1 11 40.8

:yes: Suffice to say, the jury is still out on Smith. Waaaay to early to panic. :yes:

 
My biggest question is how will Eric Johnson fit into the equation

The guy was a beast a few years ago (82/825/2). He missed every game last year due to injury, but you gotta think that he should be able to help produce in some way this upcoming season.

He's a WR converted to TE. Vernon Davis is clearly going to take his spot. However, he has a chance to become both the secondary TE and #2 receiver. People are down on the SF receivning corps, but barring injury they have some very decent starters this upcoming season.

 
Even taking into account the usual growing pains for rookie QB's, I was not all impressed with what I saw of Smith. 

Now once TC's are in full swing and I start getting some definitive reports of Smith's progress and in the preseason games Smith shows me something, then of course I will adjust my projections for Battle.

But until I read that Smith is improving and see it for myself, I'm not comfortable in projecting anything more for Battle, than 40 receptions @ 11.5 ypc = 460 yards with 4 TD's.

My :2cents: anyway.
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Really though, who could expect more from a rookie on that bad of a team? I doubt that the 2nd-year Smith will be so bad that a healthy Battle can only match the production that he had in 2005, a year in which he played only about 8 games (all of which were with iffy QB's). I also would argue that we can generally expect a 2nd year QB to fare far better than he did as a rookie. He's had 1 year to learn the ropes in the league, and a full offseason to prepare with his teammates. Also, he's got a heck of alot more receiving talent around him this year.

For the record, here are the 1st-year stats of a few notable QB's. Sure, you can find guys like Payton Manning, who came out firing in year 1, but that's rare:

G GS Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Rate

Carson Palmer: 2003 Bengals 0 0 0 0 --- 0 --- 0 0 0 0/0 0 0 ---

Mike Vick: 2001 Falcons 8 2 113 50 44.2 785 6.95 52 2 3 62.7

Steve McNair: 1995 Oilers 4 2 80 41 51.3 569 7.11 53 3 1 81.7

Matt Hasselbeck: 1999 Packers 16 0 10 3 30.0 41 4.10 19 1 0 77.5

Tom Brady: 2000 Patriots 1 0 3 1 33.3 6 2.00 6 0 0 42.4

Brett Favre: 1991 Falcons 2 0 4 0 0.0 0 0.00 0 0 2 0.0

NOW, look at Smith's numbers:

Alex Smith: 2005 49ers 7 165 84 50.9 875 5.30 47 1 11 40.8

:yes: Suffice to say, the jury is still out on Smith. Waaaay to early to panic. :yes:
Click to expand...
Just going by what I saw of Smith last year, (which wasn't impressive to me) and projecting the numbers.Battle had 25 receptions - 274 yards - 3 TD's with iffy QB's in 7 games.

That averages to 3.6 receptions - 39.14 yards - .43 TD's per game.

Small sample size I know, but if projected out over 16 games;

57.6 receptions - 626.24 yards - 7 TD's with iffy QB's.

In 3 games with Smith towards the end of the year, Battle had 7 receptions - 89 yards - 0 TD's .

That averages to 2.33 receptions - 29.66 yards - 0 TD's per game.

Smaller sample size but nothing else to go on. If projected out over 16 games;

37.3 receptions - 474.56 yards - 0 TD's with Smith at QB.

While I do hope for some improvement from Smith, I think the additions of Bryant, Vernon Davis & Norv's expected use of his RB's in the passing game, will cancel out any improvement by Smith that would positively impact Battle's stats.

Again, if I hear glowing reports on Smith in the full TC's and he lights it up pre season, I would bump Battle's stats.

I would also immediately bump Battle's stats if I learned Dilfer was going to QB the 49er's this year (season ending injury to Smith).

But this is just me and I'm wrong just as often as I'm right. :shrug:

 
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