Player Spotlight: Jake Plummer (1 Viewer)

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jake Plummer, QB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Jake Plummer Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

In 2005, Plummer did enough to suceed in a run-first offense and didn't make the mistakes that have plagued him early in his career. My personal opinion is that the offense was so much run-first because Shannahan didn't trust Plummer completely. After a sucessful 2005, I think Plummer has earned some trust.

I expect a shift in offensive philosophy this year. With the heavy emphasis in the passing game in the draft (the first 4 picks, counting Walker), I expect a closer run/pass balance for 2006. That being said, I see a slight bump for Plummers numbers overall.

Projections:

432 attepmts, 268 completions, 3470 yards, 22 TD's, 13 ints, 39 rushes for 154 yards and 2 rushing TD's.

I'm not handling the Plummer writeup for the site, but let me say emphatically that Jake is someone I can see targeting aggressively this year. He's been excellent from a fantasy perspective. Last year, despite throwing only 17 TD passes, he finished 11th.

This year, he's got Javon Walker to go alongside Rod Smith, arguably the most underrated player in the league over the last decade, an intact offensive line and a running game that keeps defenses honest regardless of who lines up behind him.

I'm not handling the Plummer writeup for the site, but let me say emphatically that Jake is someone I can see targeting aggressively this year. He's been excellent from a fantasy perspective. Last year, despite throwing only 17 TD passes, he finished 11th.

This year, he's got Javon Walker to go alongside Rod Smith, arguably the most underrated player in the league over the last decade, an intact offensive line and a running game that keeps defenses honest regardless of who lines up behind him.

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Forgot my own rules
290 completions
485 attempts
59.8% completion percentage
3,500 yards passing
7.2 yards per attempt
23 TD passes
13INTs
180 yards rushing
2 rushing TDs
284 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

Projections:

432 attepmts, 268 completions, 3470 yards, 22 TD's, 13 ints, 39 rushes for 154 yards and 2 rushing TD's.

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Forgot my own rules

290 completions
485 attempts
59.8% completion percentage
3,500 yards passing
7.2 yards per attempt
23 TD passes
13INTs
180 yards rushing
2 rushing TDs
284 fantasy points (FBG scoring)

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Man, I think you 2 are right on target. I really don't have too much to add here, including commentary.I'm projecting him at:

271/452 passing for 60% comp %, 3420 yds, 7.57 ypa, 23 TDs, 13 INTs

214 yds rushing on 55 carries & 2 TDs

First, the commentary.

All fantasy implications aside, it's time we recognize Jake Plummer as a top-10, borderline top-5 NFL QB. Seriously, I have never seen *ANYONE* where the specter of his performance with an inferior team has haunted him throughout his career, to the point where people ignore what is right in front of their faces.

Archie Manning is widely considered one of the best QBs to ever play the game, and is (if I recall correctly) the only player to ever win the MVP while on a losing team... but just go back and look at his numbers for his first six seasons in New Orleans. They were *ABYSMAL*. DRASTICALLY worse than Plummer's Arizona numbers. Archie Manning shows that, no matter how good you are, if you don't have talent around you, you aren't going to produce. And for the first six seasons of Arizona, Plummer didn't have talent around him.

People used to be low on Plummer because they always thought he was an inefficient QB... so in 2003, he put up a QB rating of 91.2. The only QBs to attempt 300 passes and have a better rating were Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, and Trent Green.

Suddenly, then, people were low on Jake Plummer because he wasn't the type of guy who scored big fantasy points... so in 2004, he threw for 4000 yards and 27 TDs. The only QBs with more yardage were Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, and Trent Green.

Suddenly, then, the knock was that Plummer was just a mistake waiting to happen... so in 2005, he went out and threw 7 INTs. No QB in the entire NFL started more than 11 games and had fewer INTs (only Byron Leftwich came close, with 11 starts and 5 INTs, which would pro-rate to 7.3 over 16 games). And Plummer only lost 1 fumble all season (compared to 3 for Leftwich in 11 games).

What more does everyone want the poor guy to do before they start acknowledging that he really is an elite QB?

Over the past 3 seasons, if you prorate his numbers over 48 games, Plummer ranks 5th in passing yards, 8th in passing TDs, and 6th in yards per attempt. He was one of two QBs to play every single snap for his team in 2004, and he would have done the same in 2005 if Denver wasn't taking him out to protect him in meaningless games. That, my friends, is deadly reliable consistancy. Oh, and he's a winner, too- only Manning, Roethlisberger, and Brady have put up a better winning percentage than Plummer since he came to Denver.

As for those who like to point out that Plummer had 20 INTs in 2004... Trent Green had 17 INTs that season, too. I don't see you all downgrading him and calling *HIM* mistake-prone.

Anyway, for whatever reason, the specter of Arizona hangs over Plummer, so that the vast majority of fantasy players think of him as a mediocre QB. Don't let their lies cloud your vision. Jake Plummer is an extremely good QB, both in terms of NFL and fantasy.

290 of 480 (60%) for 3648 yards (7.6 ypa) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, and 200 yards/2 TDs rushing thrown in for good measure. This represents a nice blend of his numbers over the past 2 seasons. If Javon Walker really is back to his 2004 form, add another 200 or so yards passing.

Anyway, for whatever reason, the specter of Arizona hangs over Plummer, so that the vast majority of fantasy players think of him as a mediocre QB. Don't let their lies cloud your vision. Jake Plummer is an extremely good QB, both in terms of NFL and fantasy.290 of 480 (60%) for 3648 yards (7.6 ypa) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, and 200 yards/2 TDs rushing thrown in for good measure.

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Then how would you explain that all the previous projections posted are so similar to yours?

Anyway, for whatever reason, the specter of Arizona hangs over Plummer, so that the vast majority of fantasy players think of him as a mediocre QB. Don't let their lies cloud your vision. Jake Plummer is an extremely good QB, both in terms of NFL and fantasy.

290 of 480 (60%) for 3648 yards (7.6 ypa) with 24 TDs and 12 INTs, and 200 yards/2 TDs rushing thrown in for good measure.

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Then how would you explain that all the previous projections posted are so similar to yours?

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Because this is the "Shark Pool".

Then how would you explain that all the previous projections posted are so similar to yours?

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Because this is the "Shark Pool".

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You haven't visited the Tatum Bell thread, haven't you?

The arrival of Cutler could motivate him to have his best season yet. Statically, it may not be shown though. When he's good, he's as good as any in the league. When he's bad...eh pretty close to as bad as it can get.

3600 passing yards 24 passing tds 16 ints 225 rushing yards 2 rushing tds.

It's interesting, seemingly everyone in this thread so far shares my optimistic view of his fantasy potential, yet ADP data and consensus rankings paint a more balance perspective. Who hear would NOT be comfortable drafting Plummer as your fantasy starter and what are your expecations for the 2006 season?

I've survived seasons in the past with Plummer as QB, and I would be comfortable to do it again, but only in a QBBC format. I wouldn't be comfortable with him as a sole #1.

It's interesting, seemingly everyone in this thread so far shares my optimistic view of his fantasy potential, yet ADP data and consensus rankings paint a more balance perspective. Who hear would NOT be comfortable drafting Plummer as your fantasy starter and what are your expecations for the 2006 season?

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Ok, with a ADP of QB12 I might wait and pick him up if he's left. I live in Denver, watch Denver and do not trust Denver. I think Jake had the season of his career last year, but, all I can picture is the AFC Championship game and the season before with 21 INTs. I think Denver is weaker in the run and the Snake reverts back to his original form. Of course there is a Wild Card named Javon.I can hear the "Cutler" chants now.

PS if your numbers are similar to Pony, don't they by default have to be a wee high?

2900yds, 19 TDs, 18INTs, 350 and 1.

and Denver goes 10-6 only because the only team that improved in that division is KC.

I'm on the bandwagon. He's had 3 very good seasons in Denver on a PPG basis. I hope to draft him as around the 10th or 11th QB off the board and then get top 6 or 7 production from him.

3,600 YDS passing

22 TDs

14 INTs

190 YDS rushing

2 TDs

Passing Yards 3925

Passing TDs 27

Ints 5

Rush Yards 165

Rush TDs 2

Once know as one of the best rushing teams in the NFL this year Denver will be known for its passing game. The addition of Walker to the team will make this one of the most dangerous offs. in the league. I see everyone in the passing game getting good numbers. This may be one of Plummer's best years yet.

Just 5 INT's? Not a chance in hell. Pencil him in for at least double that if he throws 27 TD's.

It's interesting, seemingly everyone in this thread so far shares my optimistic view of his fantasy potential, yet ADP data and consensus rankings paint a more balance perspective. Who hear would NOT be comfortable drafting Plummer as your fantasy starter and what are your expecations for the 2006 season?

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I took Plummer as my QB#1 in a 16 Team Auction league. Paid $2.90M of my $30.0 M cap for him. Most of my $ went to WR (Boldin and Wayne at $8M). Had Jordan as franchise tag (cost = $0). I like the fact Denver has a questionable running game heading into the season. Dayne/Bell/Cobbs make for alot of doubts that Denver will be a Run First team in 2006.

I actually believe some of these projections are a bit low.

3975 passing yards

28 TD passing

11 Int

325 rush yards

3 TD rushing

2 Fumbles

It's interesting, seemingly everyone in this thread so far shares my optimistic view of his fantasy potential, yet ADP data and consensus rankings paint a more balance perspective. Who hear would NOT be comfortable drafting Plummer as your fantasy starter and what are your expecations for the 2006 season?

Click to expand...

I took Plummer as my QB#1 in a 16 Team Auction league. Paid $2.90M of my $30.0 M cap for him. Most of my $ went to WR (Boldin and Wayne at $8M). Had Jordan as franchise tag (cost = $0). I like the fact Denver has a questionable running game heading into the season. Dayne/Bell/Cobbs make for alot of doubts that Denver will be a Run First team in 2006.

I actually believe some of these projections are a bit low.

3975 passing yards

28 TD passing

11 Int

325 rush yards

3 TD rushing

2 Fumbles

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What's questionable about Denver's running game?Edit: Also, as Pony Boy said last season... there is a strong tie between the running and the passing game. It's no coincidence that the 3 worst passing seasons of the Shanahan era coincided with three of the worst rushing seasons of the Shanahan era. If you think the running game will struggle, then you have to DOWNGRADE the passing game, not upgrade it.

One word... Heimerdinger

If DEN can give him the tools to run his style of offense Jake will put up scary numbers. But who will they scare, his opponents or his own team. I can see him having a great year for Denver, but will it be like the Brees situation? Cutler's addition is going to spur him on, but the writing is on the wall unless he has an MVP year. Needless to say, the pressure's on!

I like Plummer. I traded for him two years ago midseason and was rewarded with a couple 300 + yard multi TD performances (INT's to boot though). Last year I picked him up in later rounds of our draft and had mixed feelings throughout the season. Solid production, but highly variable due to Denver's success on the ground last year.

I think Jake's success rests on his offensive line this year (especially TE if they can land a new one soon). How they adjust to Heimerdinger's schemes will be critical to Jake's production, IMO. They can power the run to keep people honest, but the ball is also going to flying this year (RB's, WR's, & TE's).

Jake will have big numbers this year, but the "newness" of the system and weapons at his disposal will create more opportunity for error. The ball will be flying though...

Projection:

3800 yds - 28 TD - 17 INT

325 rushing, 2 TD's

Archie Manning is widely considered one of the best QBs to ever play the game

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By who?Seriously, I'm not aware of much of a specter of his Arizona seasons haunting Plummer any more. Maybe as a Denver fan you might be a bit overly sensitive to it, but I personally haven't really seen it for quite some time.I'll project:475 passing attempts3600 passing yards23 passing TDs12 interceptions50 rushing attempts190 rushing yards2 rushing TDs291 fantasy points - last year would have been good for QB4Great value here if his ADP stays low. I'll be targeting him.

I think the Denver rushing game will likely be fine again this year. As we've all heard it a thousand times, it seems DEN can put anyone in at RB and get production... its largely the system. That said; I think Walker will give DEN another weapon in the passing game and may entice Shanny to look to pass a bit more, and maybe more in the redzone. I believe Plummer will have a very solid 06 and I look for his TDs to be most positively effected by Walker's arrival.

PASS YD - 3500

TD - 24

INT - 15

RUSH YD - 175

RUSH TD - 2

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Last year I picked him up in later rounds of our draft and had mixed feelings throughout the season. Solid production, but highly variable due to Denver's success on the ground last year.

I think Jake's success rests on his offensive line this year (especially TE if they can land a new one soon). How they adjust to Heimerdinger's schemes will be critical to Jake's production, IMO. They can power the run to keep people honest, but the ball is also going to flying this year (RB's, WR's, & TE's).

Jake will have big numbers this year, but the "newness" of the system and weapons at his disposal will create more opportunity for error. The ball will be flying though...

Projection:

3800 yds - 28 TD - 17 INT

325 rushing, 2 TD's

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My problem w/ him also. A few great games, then he disappears for a couple. Tough to depend on for your FF team - consistency wise *at least last yr.* And until this year my league had strange yardage requirements (no yardage pts. till 300 passing), so all of his 220-270 yard games didn't help my cause. I had him in a qbbc w/ Warner most of the year, and maybe I just have bad memories of guessing wrong on him. Regardless, he's a still ton of value in the 7/9th + if he lasts that long again. On par w/ Vick, Delhomme, Eli #'s wise, but should be available 2+ rounds later. Especially if they can upgrade the TE spot.

TD wise it looks like 04 was his career year (the only year he was over 18tds), and he looks to average around 17/18 passing otherwise.

I'll go "over" on the TDs, but I'm not as optimistic.

3550 yds - 21 TD - 11 INT

300 rushing, 1 TD

Projection:

3800 yds - 28 TD - 17 INT

325 rushing, 2 TD's

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oops! total TD's 28 (3800-26-17)

sorry, bda trnascriptoin