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Anyone else worried about Gates? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hickbones
- Start date
Which could mean his TDs drop in half, while his catches remain the same. If you had the choice between Gates in the 3rd (26), or Shockey(50)/Gonzo(52)/Heap/Crumpler in the 5th, I'm taking the latter.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
jurb26
Footballguy
So am I.Which could mean his TDs drop in half, while his catches remain the same. If you had the choice between Gates in the 3rd (26), or Shockey(50)/Gonzo(52)/Heap/Crumpler in the 5th, I'm taking the latter.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
I'm just saying.... a lot of people see "green" QBs as a very good thing for TE production. Honestly I don't see anywhere for Gates' produstion to go but down. I could be wrong of course. THere as just so many good TEs in the NFL right now it is almost digusting. Hell you can get Miller in the 12th round even if you don't fancy a guy like Shockey!diesel7982
Footballguy
That line of logic suggests that Rivers will be throwing alot more shorter passes to him, rather than hitting him downfield where Brees usually looked for him.I dont expect Gates to be a top 3 TE this season, but that doesnt mean he's not without value.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
Just not worth drafting highly.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
Actually, hickbones I'm with you.
Take a look at how Shockey did with 1st year Eli at the helm in 2004 [Yes, I know that Eli split time with Warner], but with the same number of catches Shockey had nearly 250 more yards once Eli got his sea-legs.
Shockey was nearly 3 full yards lower in Yards per Catch and Yards per Target with Eli, and he averaged a whooping 5 fantasy points a game 3 points lower per game than Warner.
Philip Rivers is a completely unknown commodity and he this will be his first live action [basically a Rookie]! I can easily see Gates reaching to obtain 70 catches and dipping below 800 yards without Brees!
Take a look at how Shockey did with 1st year Eli at the helm in 2004 [Yes, I know that Eli split time with Warner], but with the same number of catches Shockey had nearly 250 more yards once Eli got his sea-legs.
Shockey was nearly 3 full yards lower in Yards per Catch and Yards per Target with Eli, and he averaged a whooping 5 fantasy points a game 3 points lower per game than Warner.
Philip Rivers is a completely unknown commodity and he this will be his first live action [basically a Rookie]! I can easily see Gates reaching to obtain 70 catches and dipping below 800 yards without Brees!
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
He's a great candidate to sell right now! I don't think he finishes in the top 5.
Boston
Footballguy
Count me as a Gates supporter. I think he continues to blow up. The kid is a wealth of talent and I think we still haven't seen his best. He just began concentrating on football a few years ago so at least in theory (and I have no reason to believe it's not true) he's just finding his groove.
As for Rivers while I know he's still an unknown quantity he's a topnotch prospect who's been in the league for two years. He's not a totally green rookie and he's in a pretty stable situation. I think he will have his share of growing pains but I believe he's going to be a little more NFL ready than some think. Since he's learning I think he'll depend even more on a major league target like Gates. Since Gates has proven he can handle big time coverage I see no reason why his success won't continue.
I've never been a fan of taking TEs early. The one time I did it with Gonzo it wasn't worth it. Yet, if the opportunity arises I'm not going to think twice about pulling the trigger on Gates. I think this kid has a chance to be the biggest fantasy weapon we've ever seen at TE.
As for Rivers while I know he's still an unknown quantity he's a topnotch prospect who's been in the league for two years. He's not a totally green rookie and he's in a pretty stable situation. I think he will have his share of growing pains but I believe he's going to be a little more NFL ready than some think. Since he's learning I think he'll depend even more on a major league target like Gates. Since Gates has proven he can handle big time coverage I see no reason why his success won't continue.
I've never been a fan of taking TEs early. The one time I did it with Gonzo it wasn't worth it. Yet, if the opportunity arises I'm not going to think twice about pulling the trigger on Gates. I think this kid has a chance to be the biggest fantasy weapon we've ever seen at TE.
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Gopher State
Footballguy
I see Gates being the top TE again this year. It just depends how early you want to take him. SD is not a hot bed for stud WR's so I don't see Gates doing less then 1000 yards and 10 td's.
SSOG
Moderator
I'm glad you mentioned Heap, personally.If Todd Heap could be top 3 with a rookie Kyle Boller, whom we all *KNOW* sucks, then certainly Gates could be top 3 with a 3rd year Rivers, whom may or may not suck (but almost certainly won't suck as much as Boller, since management saw enough of him to warrent letting Brees go).Which could mean his TDs drop in half, while his catches remain the same. If you had the choice between Gates in the 3rd (26), or Shockey(50)/Gonzo(52)/Heap/Crumpler in the 5th, I'm taking the latter.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
Remember that we were all convinced that Drew Brees sucked, too... and then Antonio Gates arrived on the scene. You could say that Gates performed so well because Brees made a quantum leap... but that's a bit of a coincidence. I think it's more likely that Brees made such a quantum leap since Gates performed so well.
I could also mention Shannon Sharpe's 2000 season, while I'm at it. Baltimore provided plenty of examples of TEs performing like studs despite playing with laughable QBs.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
SSOG,
Of course it depends upon your league mates and where by chance you happen to have an opportunity to land him, but Gates is going as the 26th overall pick.
Your logic is not sound if Gates is projected to obtain nearly 2 ppg more than his competition as the clear favorite at 150 Fantasy Points and then he finishes as TE #3 with 90 Fantasy Points for the season. Where does that leave you?
You will have made judgments and choices based on the higher value and will clearly have given up more opportunity elsewhere.
Of course it depends upon your league mates and where by chance you happen to have an opportunity to land him, but Gates is going as the 26th overall pick.
Your logic is not sound if Gates is projected to obtain nearly 2 ppg more than his competition as the clear favorite at 150 Fantasy Points and then he finishes as TE #3 with 90 Fantasy Points for the season. Where does that leave you?
You will have made judgments and choices based on the higher value and will clearly have given up more opportunity elsewhere.
I think you're the only one saying that.People are pointing out there is RISK in taking a TE at 26 with a first year starting QB. Even a NEW qb would add some risk into the situation. Change is bad. It adds uncertainty. Moss without Cpepp. Cpepp without Moss. Unknowns are bad.
What will probably happen is Gates will come back to the TE field a little bit (but probably still #1 TE). In that case, he's a bad pick at 26. When you can get TE2-6 in round 4-5.
Even at the FBG projections, it's hard to swallow pick 26 on a TE. If he even slips to the 120-130 point range (which is still a great season) he'll be amongst a pack of 2-3 TEs.
Of course Gates can be top 3. That's not the point. The point is how much added risk is there, with a new, 1st year starting QB taking over. Does that amount of risk scare you from taking him at 26? It's not that he won't be the #1 TE. It's that the GAP between him and #2/#3 might not be as large.I'm glad you mentioned Heap, personally.If Todd Heap could be top 3 with a rookie Kyle Boller, whom we all *KNOW* sucks, then certainly Gates could be top 3 with a 3rd year Rivers, whom may or may not suck (but almost certainly won't suck as much as Boller, since management saw enough of him to warrent letting Brees go).Which could mean his TDs drop in half, while his catches remain the same. If you had the choice between Gates in the 3rd (26), or Shockey(50)/Gonzo(52)/Heap/Crumpler in the 5th, I'm taking the latter.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
Remember that we were all convinced that Drew Brees sucked, too... and then Antonio Gates arrived on the scene. You could say that Gates performed so well because Brees made a quantum leap... but that's a bit of a coincidence. I think it's more likely that Brees made such a quantum leap since Gates performed so well.
I could also mention Shannon Sharpe's 2000 season, while I'm at it. Baltimore provided plenty of examples of TEs performing like studs despite playing with laughable QBs.
And the gap HAS TO BE LARGE in order to justify taking him at 26, when you can have Gonzo/Shockey/Heap/Crumpler at pick 50-60-70.
To take him at 26, you have to believe he will still clearly be the #1 TE by a wide margin. The only reason people would take Gonzo in the 3rd was because of the huge edge he gave you. Does that edge exist with Gates/Rivers? Maybe. But FBGs are predicting a drop due to Rivers. So you have to feel pretty comfortable that there won't be much of a dropoff, and grab him 2 rounds before the next TE.
And at BEST, he justifies the spot you picked him. There's really not a lot of upside for Gates at 26. He'll either give you a nice edge and it will be justified, or he'll come back to the pack and value wise, it will be a poor pick. I just don't like taking a guy at 26, who really can't outperform that spot. And really a great year, only justifies it.
Why can't he outperform the number 26 spot? Last year he finished number eight. (FBG scoring, worst starter baseline, 1/2/2/1/1/1.)
hickbones
Footballguy
You have so well articulated exactly what I have been thinking about Gates this year. His current draft position scares me because those picks need to be for guys that are clearly better than the next guy by a lot.Of course Gates can be top 3. That's not the point. The point is how much added risk is there, with a new, 1st year starting QB taking over. Does that amount of risk scare you from taking him at 26? It's not that he won't be the #1 TE. It's that the GAP between him and #2/#3 might not be as large.I'm glad you mentioned Heap, personally.If Todd Heap could be top 3 with a rookie Kyle Boller, whom we all *KNOW* sucks, then certainly Gates could be top 3 with a 3rd year Rivers, whom may or may not suck (but almost certainly won't suck as much as Boller, since management saw enough of him to warrent letting Brees go).Which could mean his TDs drop in half, while his catches remain the same. If you had the choice between Gates in the 3rd (26), or Shockey(50)/Gonzo(52)/Heap/Crumpler in the 5th, I'm taking the latter.Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
Remember that we were all convinced that Drew Brees sucked, too... and then Antonio Gates arrived on the scene. You could say that Gates performed so well because Brees made a quantum leap... but that's a bit of a coincidence. I think it's more likely that Brees made such a quantum leap since Gates performed so well.
I could also mention Shannon Sharpe's 2000 season, while I'm at it. Baltimore provided plenty of examples of TEs performing like studs despite playing with laughable QBs.
And the gap HAS TO BE LARGE in order to justify taking him at 26, when you can have Gonzo/Shockey/Heap/Crumpler at pick 50-60-70.
To take him at 26, you have to believe he will still clearly be the #1 TE by a wide margin. The only reason people would take Gonzo in the 3rd was because of the huge edge he gave you. Does that edge exist with Gates/Rivers? Maybe. But FBGs are predicting a drop due to Rivers. So you have to feel pretty comfortable that there won't be much of a dropoff, and grab him 2 rounds before the next TE.
And at BEST, he justifies the spot you picked him. There's really not a lot of upside for Gates at 26. He'll either give you a nice edge and it will be justified, or he'll come back to the pack and value wise, it will be a poor pick. I just don't like taking a guy at 26, who really can't outperform that spot. And really a great year, only justifies it.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Shockey, Crumpler, Heap, Gonzo, and Witten all have a good shot to finish higher than Gates this year. Now, keep in mind, I'm talking this year alone. In a dynasty he's still one of the top 3 guys. This year I see around 600 yards and 5 TD's. The bottom side for Rivers looks like Alex Smith last year.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Shockey
Crumpler 
Heap
Gonzo
Witten
I can see Gates as the #3, at worst. I'm not going to rank Shockey or Gonzo ahead of him right now, but they have a chance to finish higher. Given their ADP, I'd prefer those 2 in a redraft.
If the question is am I worried enough to avoid Gates? No, not even close.
If it's whether I bump him down just a tad, worried about whether he'll be a good value, yeah, sort of.
There's a few players in the NFL that are studs to the degree that I don't care too much about what else happens on the team or SOS, Gates is one of those. BUT, I'd care enough to drop him from top 20 to 25ish. Still, if I can get a top 3 pick, walk away with LJ, CJ or Fitz, and Gates, I'm all for it.
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M
MLBrandow
Guest
I think the lack of other receivers, plus the fact that Rivers will be dumping the ball off to Gates more, plus the low throws that are bound to get intercepted more....I think all of these add up to a record year in receptions, with average TD count.
Something like 90 receptions for 1050 and 7 would not surprise me.
You're going to see a dip in his YPC, but other than that, I think his output should remain pretty close.
He's still the #1 TE hands down.... just the gap won't be as big this year.
Obviously, we're all entitled to our opinions, but I don't see any way that Gates' numbers fall that much unless he's injured. Yes, Rivers is an uknown quantity at this point, but I think the Alex Smith comparison is a bad one. In Smith's case, he was a rookie with very little offensive talent around him and no decent RB to take some pressure off. This will be Rivers' third year, and he's had a lot of time to learn the system etc. Moreover, he's stepping into a much, much better situation than Smith was, and having Tomlinson in your backfield is much more comforting than turning around and seeing Kevan Barlow.Something else to consider is that the Chargers don't really have anyone who's going to steal receptions (and targets) from Gates. They didn't address their WR situation in the off-season (unless you count Rashaun Woods), so unless you think Eric Parker or another of their WR's is going to take a significant step forward, Gates is going to be targeted as much as ever, if not more (251 times in the last two seasons). While I acknowledge that it's highly unlikely that Rivers will match Brees' 500 passing attempts last season (7th in the NFL), Gates is still going to see a ton of targets, and the fact remains that he's far and away the Chargers best receiving target, he's one of the best red-zone weapons in the league, and he's still working to improve. He hasn't peaked yet.
The Chargers are going to live and die with Gates, and unless you see their entire offense imploding completely, I don't see any way that he puts up the kinds of numbers that you're projecting over a full season.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I'll just say that I haven't seen any evidence to show me that an unproven QB is going to hurt Gates' numbers, and that I expect the '06 Rivers to be better than the '05 Brees.
jurb26
Footballguy
My guess would be right around the same as the past 2 years... 50ish. With Gates arivial LT's rec have gone down. So long as Gates is performing the way he has I don't see any reasons to expect any kind of spike in LT's rec number.so how many will LT catch?Most seem to think that an unproven QB is even better due to the check offs.
T
trader jake
Guest
i project gates as the #1 TE but by a smaller gap between him and the next two spots. this makes drafting him around his ADP unlikely for me, but if he falls slightly i would not hesitate to snag him in the mid/late 3rd myself
i don't see the switch from brees to rivers to be as drastic as some. rivers started four years in college (going 4-0 in bowl games if i remember correctly) and has two years learning the same system that he will be running this year. the chargers also have an all world RB who is a great pass-catcher in the backfield as well
gates may see a slight drop in TD's (rivers will most likely throw more INT's than brees) but overall i do not envision gate's production falling that much below the level of his past few seasons. enough to close that gap between him and the best of the rest...but not enough to rank him anything below the #1 TE
i don't see the switch from brees to rivers to be as drastic as some. rivers started four years in college (going 4-0 in bowl games if i remember correctly) and has two years learning the same system that he will be running this year. the chargers also have an all world RB who is a great pass-catcher in the backfield as well
gates may see a slight drop in TD's (rivers will most likely throw more INT's than brees) but overall i do not envision gate's production falling that much below the level of his past few seasons. enough to close that gap between him and the best of the rest...but not enough to rank him anything below the #1 TE
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Rivers is far from a rookie, having 2 years to be able to sit and learn isn't a bad thing for a QB.
Most on this board were up in arms about Palmer when he took over for Kitna saying how the Bengals were making a huge mistake benching Kitna.
San Diego has had a lot of time to see what Rivers can do and they are confident he is the one that will take San Diego to the next level, who am I to argue.
Gates will be Gates, the best FF TE in the league.
Most on this board were up in arms about Palmer when he took over for Kitna saying how the Bengals were making a huge mistake benching Kitna.
San Diego has had a lot of time to see what Rivers can do and they are confident he is the one that will take San Diego to the next level, who am I to argue.
Gates will be Gates, the best FF TE in the league.
Brees led the AFC in interceptions last year. I think it's unlikely that Rivers will throw more.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
That's a good point, but I think last year was atypical. From 2002-2004, an AFC QB had more than 15 INTs twelve times.
T
trader jake
Guest
true, but over the past 4 seasons drew brees has thrown 53 INT's over 58 games. i like rivers this season but i expect him to throw more than 1.09 INT's/game (ie, he'll throw at least 18 INT's this seaosn imo)
LBH
Footballguy
Gates will have his best year so far. 1400yds 12tds
I think Rivers will be better than people think. A top prospect sitting on the bench for a couple of seasons doesn't hurt at the QB position. I read that Gates is actually working hard to improve his game this offseason. Thats pretty scary. I don't think its bad drafting to take a guy like Gates in the 3rd rd. when there are other guys that might have comparable seasons to him in rds 5 or 6. You can say the same thing about taking a wr, rb, or qb there too
I think Rivers will be better than people think. A top prospect sitting on the bench for a couple of seasons doesn't hurt at the QB position. I read that Gates is actually working hard to improve his game this offseason. Thats pretty scary. I don't think its bad drafting to take a guy like Gates in the 3rd rd. when there are other guys that might have comparable seasons to him in rds 5 or 6. You can say the same thing about taking a wr, rb, or qb there too
I don't have any QB projected to throw 18 INTs. My highest is Bulger at 17. If Vegas had an over/under on Rivers' INTs this year, I'm absolutely certain it'd be under 18.
rzrback77
Footballguy
I am not worried about Antonio Gates. I am not really concerned that Rivers will be a big drop off from Brees and I expect him to outperform his ADP. Even if he is less effective than Brees was, I expect the Chargers WRs to take the hit. Gates will remain the top performing TE in the NFL and will be a better bargain than last year since all the concern for Rivers will allow him to possibly slip a little.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Agreed. While college performance doesn't translate directly to the NFL, interceptions were not a big problem for Rivers in college. He threw 37 in 51 games (1789 attempts), and only 7 in 13 games (483 attempts) as a senior.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Considering only one QB threw more than 17 last year, this is a pretty safe bet.Slight hijack, but IMO, if there's one QB to put $ on as having more than 18, it isn't Rivers, it's Brooks.
T
trader jake
Guest
as a packer fan it hurts me to say this, but actually brett favre would be the man to have your money on. if brooks gets INT happy i bet he gets yanked (maybe brett would as well, but he's "capable" of putting up 18 in fewer that 16 games...lol. aside from an injury rivers will play all 16 games and i suspect he'll throw a decent number if INT's as most first year starting QB's doobviously 18 is a high estimate (considering 15 led the AFC last season) but san diego threw 16 just last season (brees 15, rivers 1) with more experience at the QB position most of the season. again, i expect philip rivers to play well, but to expect him to lower the teams interceptions might be expecting a bit too muchConsidering only one QB threw more than 17 last year, this is a pretty safe bet.Slight hijack, but IMO, if there's one QB to put $ on as having more than 18, it isn't Rivers, it's Brooks.
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he's probably a lock to have a stinker 2-3 INT game(as any newbie would be) and that's just 1 in each game the rest of the way.Palmer had 18
Plummer had 20,24
Daunte had 16
I'd have to look at more but after grabbing just a few at PFR it seems reasonable in their first year starting.
How many passes do you guess he throws?
Brees threw 500 last year, so if we give Rivers that then 18 INTs is one every 27-28 attempts which....again is close to one a game.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
As much as I dislike Eli Manning, I do have to admit that he is a good QB. He sucked his first year and Shockey suffered greatly. Don't take my word for it, check it out. The difference between Warner and Manning was dramatic!
Rivers is going to be in the "hot seat" for the first time and you guys make it sound like he is going to throw 4,000, 30 TD's and 15 INT's or something. And Gates' performance will not suffer? Please ...
Gates will indeed suffer this year.
It is not a matter of whether he comes in at TE #3 either; he just might. He is projected to be nearly 2 ppg higher than any of his peers. He could end up with 4 ppg lower than that and still get TE #3! The point is he will not get anywhere near the catches, yards and TD's as he has ...
And he will not be worth the 26th pick overall?
Take a look at the one game last year where Rivers and Gates were paired up together. Gates had 9 balls thrown his way. Any idea of how many he caught? 3; only 1/3 of the attempts. And he landed a whopping 23 yards.
His catch/ target ratio was half of what he had with Brees. His Yards/ Catch and Yards/ Attempt were 1/3 lower ...
It will be a long year for Rivers and Co.
And just to clear the air, I was one of the original pimpers of Antonio Gates after his tremendous 2003 season. I was criticized by many on this board who thought he was a one hit wonder and he would flop. I think that he is fantastic, but he cannot do anything unless he gets the ball ...
Rivers is going to be in the "hot seat" for the first time and you guys make it sound like he is going to throw 4,000, 30 TD's and 15 INT's or something. And Gates' performance will not suffer? Please ...
Gates will indeed suffer this year.
It is not a matter of whether he comes in at TE #3 either; he just might. He is projected to be nearly 2 ppg higher than any of his peers. He could end up with 4 ppg lower than that and still get TE #3! The point is he will not get anywhere near the catches, yards and TD's as he has ...
And he will not be worth the 26th pick overall?
Take a look at the one game last year where Rivers and Gates were paired up together. Gates had 9 balls thrown his way. Any idea of how many he caught? 3; only 1/3 of the attempts. And he landed a whopping 23 yards.
His catch/ target ratio was half of what he had with Brees. His Yards/ Catch and Yards/ Attempt were 1/3 lower ...
It will be a long year for Rivers and Co.
And just to clear the air, I was one of the original pimpers of Antonio Gates after his tremendous 2003 season. I was criticized by many on this board who thought he was a one hit wonder and he would flop. I think that he is fantastic, but he cannot do anything unless he gets the ball ...
In that game, Gates caught 2 of 5 targets from Rivers. He caught 1 of 4 targets from Brees.
Dancing Bear
Footballguy
My bad Maurile, thanks for catching that.
No prob. Here are my notes from that game (from an old thread):
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Rookies since 1995 with > 200 pass attempts and < 10 INTs:Marc Bulgerhe's probably a lock to have a stinker 2-3 INT game(as any newbie would be) and that's just 1 in each game the rest of the way.Palmer had 18
Plummer had 20,24
Daunte had 16
I'd have to look at more but after grabbing just a few at PFR it seems reasonable in their first year starting.
How many passes do you guess he throws?
Brees threw 500 last year, so if we give Rivers that then 18 INTs is one every 27-28 attempts which....again is close to one a game.
Charlie Batch
Donovan McNabb
Chad Hutchinson
Patrick Ramsey
Kyle Boller
Rookies since 1995 with > 200 pass attempts and 10 < X < 14 INTs:
Craig Whelian
Cade McNown
Ben Roethlisberger
Jeff Garcia
Kyle Orton
Tim Couch
Rookies since 1995 with > 200 pass attempts and 15 or 16 INTs:
Tony Banks
David Carr
Ryan Leaf
Jake Plummer
Joey Harrington
Byron Leftwich
Kerry Collins (19), Chris Weinke (19) and Peyton Manning (28) are the only other three QBs on the list.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
This table might be helpful.
This shows all QBs since 1995 that meet the following criteria:
1) They threw at least 200 passes in year X
2) That year X was either their second or third season in the league
3) That prior to year X, they had combined for no more than 75 career passing attempts
This gets a pretty good cross section of the type of guys in comparable situations to Rivers. The list is sorted by interceptions thrown.
CATT = Career Attempts before this season.
EXP = How many prior seasons the QB had under his belt
Phillip Rivers' entry would have '30' under 'CATT' and '2' under 'EXP'.
The average QB was 215/362 for 2481 yards (6.85 Y/A) with 16.25 TD and 10.35 INT, and had 23 career passes before the season began. Pennington and Brad Johnson were third year guys, and may be more comparable to Rivers because of that.
This shows all QBs since 1995 that meet the following criteria:
1) They threw at least 200 passes in year X
2) That year X was either their second or third season in the league
3) That prior to year X, they had combined for no more than 75 career passing attempts
This gets a pretty good cross section of the type of guys in comparable situations to Rivers. The list is sorted by interceptions thrown.
CATT = Career Attempts before this season.
EXP = How many prior seasons the QB had under his belt
Phillip Rivers' entry would have '30' under 'CATT' and '2' under 'EXP'.
Code:
Player Name Year Tm Age Cmp Att Yds TD INT CATT EXPDamon Huard 1999 mia 26 | 125 216 1288 8 4 | 9 | 1Brooks Bollinger 2005 nyj 26 | 150 266 1558 7 6 | 9 | 1Chad Pennington 2002 nyj 26 | 276 399 3120 22 6 | 25 | 2Bobby Hoying 1997 phi 25 | 128 225 1573 11 6 | 0 | 1Chris Simms 2005 tam 25 | 191 313 2035 10 7 | 73 | 1Mark Brunell 1995 jax 25 | 201 346 2168 15 7 | 27 | 1Matt Hasselbeck 2001 sea 26 | 176 321 2023 7 8 | 29 | 2J.P. Losman 2005 buf 24 | 113 228 1340 8 8 | 5 | 1Danny Kanell 1997 nyg 24 | 156 294 1740 11 9 | 60 | 1Ken Dorsey 2004 sfo 23 | 123 226 1231 6 9 | 0 | 1Billy Volek 2004 ten 28 | 218 357 2486 18 10 | 69 | 1Brad Johnson 1996 min 28 | 195 311 2258 17 10 | 73 | 2Trent Green 1998 was 28 | 278 509 3441 23 11 | 1 | 1Tom Brady 2001 nwe 24 | 264 413 2843 18 12 | 3 | 1Kurt Warner 1999 ram 28 | 325 499 4353 41 13 | 11 | 1Brian Griese 1999 den 24 | 261 452 3032 14 14 | 3 | 1Daunte Culpepper 2000 min 23 | 297 474 3937 33 16 | 0 | 1Drew Brees 2002 sdg 23 | 320 526 3284 17 16 | 27 | 1Kordell Stewart 1997 pit 25 | 236 440 3020 21 17 | 37 | 2Carson Palmer 2004 cin 25 | 263 432 2897 18 18 | 0 | 1SSOG
Moderator
See, the thing is... something like 80+% of first, second, and third round picks UNDERPERFORM their draft position. It comes with the territory of being drafted so high. Want to hear something amazing, though? Gonzalez once outperformed his ADP (according to VBD) for SIX STRAIGHT SEASONS. That shows that people tend to undervalue stud TEs. For most of those seasons, Gonzales had a VBD rank in the top-24, meaning he should have been selected in the first two rounds.I expect Gates to still be the best TE in the NFL next season. His ceiling is a very solid first-round VBD. His floor, in my mind, is TE3, which still carries around a 7th round VBD score. Not too shabby for a player's "floor".
Again, Gonzalez once outperformed his draft position for 6 straight seasons. Name me one other player in the history of fantasy football that has pulled off that feat.I also ask again... who else can you draft at pick #26 with a floor VBD that would rank them as a 6th or 7th round selection? There's not a whole lot of risk with Gates at all. Any RB you select at #26 will carry the risk of being absolutely invisible. I don't think there's a chance in hell that Gates finishes the season healthy and outside the top 3 at TE.
Now that's just crazy talk. Even Carson Palmer, he of the MVP-caliber season last year, was pretty rough in his first season... and Phillip Rivers is no Carson Palmer. I don't think he'll be brutally bad, but I definitely don't think he'll be a pro bowler, either- and Drew Brees was a pro bowler last year.No chance in hell that '06 Rivers is better than '05 Brees.
More than that, it was against the Denver Broncos, who traditionally are the #1 team in the entire NFL at shutting down TEs (which is good, since a quarter of their schedule is against Gonzo and Gates).In Gates' last 4 games against Denver, he finished with 23, 80, 31, and 30 yards. He has never in his career scored a TD against the Broncos. In fact, over the last two seasons, in 8 games, Gates and Gonzo have COMBINED for 27/279/1, which averages out to 3.4 receptions for 34.9 yards and .13 TDs per game (4.27 fantasy points, 7.67 in PPR). Against everyone else over that span, they've averaged 6.0 receptions for 74.2 yards and .57 TDs (10.84 fantasy points, 16.84 in PPR)
Gates sucking that game had nothing to do with Rivers and everything to do with the opponent.
This shows how unique Rivers' situation is.I think using 200 attempts is low, since every QB who starts at least 13 games throws 300+ attempts. So let's cut it down to this:
Code:
Player Name Year Tm Age Cmp Att Yds TD INT CATT EXPChad Pennington 2002 nyj 26 | 276 399 3120 22 6 | 25 | 2Chris Simms 2005 tam 25 | 191 313 2035 10 7 | 73 | 1Mark Brunell 1995 jax 25 | 201 346 2168 15 7 | 27 | 1Matt Hasselbeck 2001 sea 26 | 176 321 2023 7 8 | 29 | 2Billy Volek 2004 ten 28 | 218 357 2486 18 10 | 69 | 1Brad Johnson 1996 min 28 | 195 311 2258 17 10 | 73 | 2Trent Green 1998 was 28 | 278 509 3441 23 11 | 1 | 1Tom Brady 2001 nwe 24 | 264 413 2843 18 12 | 3 | 1Kurt Warner 1999 ram 28 | 325 499 4353 41 13 | 11 | 1Brian Griese 1999 den 24 | 261 452 3032 14 14 | 3 | 1Daunte Culpepper 2000 min 23 | 297 474 3937 33 16 | 0 | 1Drew Brees 2002 sdg 23 | 320 526 3284 17 16 | 27 | 1Kordell Stewart 1997 pit 25 | 236 440 3020 21 17 | 37 | 2Carson Palmer 2004 cin 25 | 263 432 2897 18 18 | 0 | 1
Code:
Player Name Year Tm Age Cmp Att Yds TD INT CATT EXPChad Pennington 2002 nyj 26 | 276 399 3120 22 6 | 25 | 2Daunte Culpepper 2000 min 23 | 297 474 3937 33 16 | 0 | 1Carson Palmer 2004 cin 25 | 263 432 2897 18 18 | 0 | 1
Code:
Player Name Year Tm Age Cmp Att Yds TD INT CATT EXPChad Pennington 2002 nyj 26 | 276 399 3120 22 6 | 25 | 2Daunte Culpepper 2000 min 23 | 297 474 3937 33 16 | 0 | 1
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Player Name Year Tm Age Cmp Att Yds TD INT CATT EXPChad Pennington 2002 nyj 26 | 276 399 3120 22 6 | 25 | 2Brees really wasn't all that great in '05.I do think Rivers '06 will be better than Brees '05. Maybe not fantasy-wise if he has many fewer attempts. But efficiency-wise, I bet Rivers does better. I'm willing to do a sig bet on the following.
In 2005, Brees had a YPA of 7.2, a passer rating of 89.2, a completion percentage of 64.4%, and a TD-INT ratio of 24-15. I think Rivers 2006 will outperform Brees 2005 in at least three of those categories.
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